Diplomacy & Defense Think Tank News

[Vu d’ailleurs] La fonction publique à l’épreuve des réformes Institut Montaigne jeu 09/11/2017 - 10:42

Les “fonctionnaires”. Rares sont les termes qui, dans le langage commun, ont généré tant de débats, de tentatives définitoire ou réformatrice.

Making greater of use of the waters of the Congo could boost development across – and beyond – the region, but threatens to favour particular users’ interests at the expense of others. Within its enormous catchment area, the Congo is the dominant transport network and the lifeblood of the African rain forest, upon which millions depend for their livelihoods. Tapping the river’s resources could significantly improve the region’s water and food supplies, while its hydro-energy potential could theoretically satisfy the electricity needs of the entire continent. Plans to construct more major dams at the Inga Falls demonstrate that the ten Congo Basin states are pursuing common goals – but also having to deal with sharpening intersectoral conflicts. An inconsistent line on dam-building makes it harder for Germany to play a constructive role in these development processes.

Die deutsch-tschechischen Beziehungen geraten in eine komplizierte Phase. Nachdem in beiden Ländern die Parlamente neu gewählt worden sind, steht nun die Regierungsbildung an. Währenddessen ist neuer Schwung in die Diskussion über die Reform der EU gekommen, ohne dass Berlin oder Prag mit eigenen Vorschlägen an die Öffentlichkeit getreten wären. Bilateral wird das Thema zwar konstruktiv, aber nicht schlüssig behandelt. Vor allem die Konturen der tschechischen Europapolitik sind seit Jahren unklar. Um mehr als nur ein pragmatisches Nebeneinander zu sichern und einem Auseinanderdriften in der EU rechtzeitig entgegenzuwirken, müssen beide Seiten die europapolitische Dimension ihres Verhältnisses bewusst weiterentwickeln.

Zwei Jahre nach dem Pariser Klimagipfel ist die Euphorie über den diplomatischen Durchbruch und die Verabschiedung neuer Ziele – die Eindämmung des Temperaturanstiegs auf deutlich unter 2 Grad, möglichst sogar 1,5 Grad – weitgehend verflogen. Von zusätzlichem Ehrgeiz ist beim Klimaschutz seither wenig zu sehen. Ein Grundproblem liegt in der globalen Natur von Temperaturzielen, aus denen sich für nationale Politik und Wirtschaft nur wenig konkrete Handlungsanleitungen ergeben und die sich auch nicht dazu eignen, Klimaschutzmaßnahmen von Regierungen und Unternehmen zu bewerten. Schon im Rahmen des »facilitative dialogue«, der beim Bonner Klimagipfel vorbereitet wird und für 2018 geplant ist, sollte daher das dritte Klimaschutzziel von Paris als Maßstab ins Zentrum gestellt werden: das Erreichen von Treibhausgasneutralität in der zweiten Jahrhunderthälfte. EU-Kommission und Mitgliedstaaten sollten dieses Nullemissionsziel bei der Neuformulierung der Klima-Roadmap 2050 und der Verabschiedung einer langfristigen Dekarbonisierungsstrategie zum zentralen Orientierungspunkt machen. Dies würde die Chance eröffnen, die EU-Klimapolitik künftig sowohl ehrgeiziger als auch pragmatischer zu konzipieren.

Ein Schatten liegt auf Europa. Damit dieser schnell verschwindet, appellierte Antonio Tajani daran, sich an die eigenen Wurzeln zurückzuerinnern.

Über die neuen Feinde der Demokratie und mögliche Gegenmaßnahmen diskutierten Bundestagspräsident Schäuble und der "erste Staatsphilosoph im Lande" Münkler.

Nouveau monde arabe, nouvelle “politique arabe” pour la France Institut Montaigne mer 08/11/2017 - 20:13

L’Institut Montaigne organisait le 27 octobre dernier avec l’OCP Policy Center, think tank marocain basé à Rabat, un séminaire de travail à Paris autour du rapport Nouveau monde arabe, nouvelle “politique arabe” pour la France (août 2017). 

Y ont participé des membres et chercheurs associés des deux institutions, ainsi qu’un nombre restreint de personnalités intéressées à ces questions. 

Donner un souffle nouveau à la coopération franco-marocaine 

Des deux côtés de la Méditerranée, nos experts ont rappelé les liens historiques et protéiformes existants entre la France et le Maroc. La longévité de cette relation trouve son fondement dans la richesse de nos échanges culturels et humains, qui ne demandent qu’à être approfondis sur les terrains de l’éducation, des langues et de la solidarité. Si le français est par exemple enseigné dans toutes les écoles marocaines comme langue principale, ce n’est pas le cas de l’arabe en France, dont l’organisation de l’enseignement est laissé aux autorités cultuelles. 

Réactiver l’espace de coopération méditerranéen 

Le bassin méditerranéen est apparu comme le lieu où devait renaître une politique de coopération cohérente sur les questions non seulement migratoires et sécuritaires, mais également économiques et sociales. L’Union pour la Méditerranée a été désignée comme l’organe où cette coopération pourrait reprendre vie. La réactivation de cet espace de coopération était avant tout, pour le Maroc, conditionnée au maintien d’une cohésion forte entre les pays européens.

Faire de la jeunesse notre priorité 

La jeunesse a quant à elle été définie comme une priorité commune de nos deux pays, puisqu’elle concentre à la fois toutes les vulnérabilités et les espoirs de notre temps. Elle a déjà en l’espace d’une décennie connu une période de récession économique, une révolution toujours à l’oeuvre; celle du numérique ; et la montée des extrémismes politiques et religieux. Les effets sont là et partagés : précarité et sentiment de déclassement, hyperconnectivité et enfermement numérique, crise identitaire et regain de radicalité, religieuse ou politique. 

Nos sociétés face à la radicalisation de l’islam

L'islamisation de la société est un enjeu que partagent la France et le Maroc. Même si cette radicalisation se pose en termes distincts dans les deux pays, tous deux observent que la religion n’appartient plus exclusivement aux domaines de la spiritualité et des traditions, mais est aussi devenue un prétexte pour justifier une existence politique et sociale.
 

Blanc 27 octobre 2017 Activé Nouveau monde arabe, nouvelle "politique arabe" pour la France L’Institut Montaigne organisait avec l’OCP Policy Center, un séminaire de travail à Paris autour du rapport Nouveau monde arabe, nouvelle “politique arabe” pour la France.  Ouvert Non

Weather risk is an issue of extraordinary concern in the face of climate change, not least for rural agricultural households in developing countries. Governments and international donors currently promote ‘climate insurance’, financial mechanisms that make payouts following extreme weather events. Technologically innovative insurance programmes are heralded as promising strategies for decreasing poverty and improving resilience in countries that are heavily dependent on smallholder agriculture. New subsidies will amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, yet funders and advocates have thus far neglected the social and ecological ramifications of these policies. Reviews have focused largely on near-term economic effects and practical challenges. This briefing draws on an initial inventory of potential adverse effects of insurance programmes on local agricultural systems that we have recently assembled. Our review shows that farmers with insurance may alter their land-use strategies or their involvement in social networks previously used to mitigate climate risk. Both processes constitute crucial feedbacks on the environmental and the social systems respectively. Based on our study, we suggest preliminary principles for avoiding maladaptive outcomes, including recommenda­tions for designing appropriate impact studies and in­surance programmes. Before implementation, pilot projects should assess existing local risk-management strategies, financial instruments, and extant state agricultural and social protection policies. Participatory processes should be designed to anticipate and appraise potential effects of insurance – including those resulting from changing land use – and interactions with existing public policies. Several recommendations for improvements to the elabora­tion and design of future agricultural insurance programmes follow from our analysis: 1.         Evaluate priorities 2.         Encourage diversity 3.         Adapt policies 4.         Choose the right scale 5.         Limit coverage to extremes 6.         Tie insurance to ecologically sound strategies Current and future ‘climate insurance’ projects should be combined with consciously designed programmes to invest in and foster farmer-led learning on sustainable agricultural techniques. Policies linking insurance coverage and subsidies to diversified and ecologically sensitive cultivation may provide new frameworks for the design of insurance programmes in developing countries. This also requires rethinking the accepted wisdom on bundling insurance with inputs, which may make social-ecological systems and smallholders more fragile and vulnerable in the face of a changing climate.

Weather risk is an issue of extraordinary concern in the face of climate change, not least for rural agricultural households in developing countries. Governments and international donors currently promote ‘climate insurance’, financial mechanisms that make payouts following extreme weather events. Technologically innovative insurance programmes are heralded as promising strategies for decreasing poverty and improving resilience in countries that are heavily dependent on smallholder agriculture. New subsidies will amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, yet funders and advocates have thus far neglected the social and ecological ramifications of these policies. Reviews have focused largely on near-term economic effects and practical challenges. This briefing draws on an initial inventory of potential adverse effects of insurance programmes on local agricultural systems that we have recently assembled. Our review shows that farmers with insurance may alter their land-use strategies or their involvement in social networks previously used to mitigate climate risk. Both processes constitute crucial feedbacks on the environmental and the social systems respectively. Based on our study, we suggest preliminary principles for avoiding maladaptive outcomes, including recommenda­tions for designing appropriate impact studies and in­surance programmes. Before implementation, pilot projects should assess existing local risk-management strategies, financial instruments, and extant state agricultural and social protection policies. Participatory processes should be designed to anticipate and appraise potential effects of insurance – including those resulting from changing land use – and interactions with existing public policies. Several recommendations for improvements to the elabora­tion and design of future agricultural insurance programmes follow from our analysis: 1.         Evaluate priorities 2.         Encourage diversity 3.         Adapt policies 4.         Choose the right scale 5.         Limit coverage to extremes 6.         Tie insurance to ecologically sound strategies Current and future ‘climate insurance’ projects should be combined with consciously designed programmes to invest in and foster farmer-led learning on sustainable agricultural techniques. Policies linking insurance coverage and subsidies to diversified and ecologically sensitive cultivation may provide new frameworks for the design of insurance programmes in developing countries. This also requires rethinking the accepted wisdom on bundling insurance with inputs, which may make social-ecological systems and smallholders more fragile and vulnerable in the face of a changing climate.

Bonn, 8 November 2017. Today marks the fourth anniversary of super typhoon Haiyan hitting the Philippines. It was the strongest tropical cyclone ever to make landfall. The world continues to be devastated by even more extreme weather events; this year alone saw floodings in Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Vietnam and the United States; droughts in Somalia; Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria in the Caribbean and the U.S.; and just last week, Storm Herwart hit Germany, the Czech Republic and Poland. The growing frequency of natural disasters leaves governments around the world with little choice: They must fulfil their commitment to act on climate change on all fronts, even as they continue to ramp up disaster risk reduction efforts. Moreover, they must not only address rapid onset events but also slow onset events, which are a more silent but equal – if not more dangerous and pervasive – threats to lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Slow onset events (SOE) associated with the adverse impacts of climate change include “sea level rise, increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and related impacts, salinization, land and forest degradation, loss of biodiversity and desertification,” according to the definition of the 2010 Cancun Agreements. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has recognized the negative, even fatal impacts of these SOEs. The Pacific island Fiji – this year’s host of the UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn (COP23) – was in fact the first nation to ratify the Paris Agreement, as they already struggle with rising sea levels. However, separate studies by our institutes, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities and the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), show the immense gaps in research efforts in the Philippines and other developing countries, which are at the front lines of climate change impacts. Yet, reliable research data is needed to address the challenges of SOE. Most of the currently published research on SOEs has been conducted in and focused on North America, Europe and Australasia. In Asia, only a fraction of countries – such as Japan, China, India and Malaysia – have done extensive research on SOEs, which include attribution and confounding factors. In the Philippines, surveys by three local state universities across the archipelago show that the available literature on climate change in their regions and provinces need to be improved. The lack of data reflects the lack of investments in research and development work of state universities and colleges nationwide. Several confounding factors, such as land use change and overexploitation of natural resources, also make it difficult to attribute many of the local findings to climate change. Moreover, most of the SOE research worldwide have been conducted by the life and physical sciences, while social sciences contributed the least.  In the case of local studies in the Philippines, the analysis disregards disaster and climate change perceptions of marginalised sectors such as the indigenous people (IP) communities, women, children, differently abled and senior citizens. At the national level, policies need to better reflect realities on the ground aided by sound research, both from the natural and social sciences. Researchers, as well as development and extension workers of local academic institutions must be financed and capacitated in order to help communities improve their climate and development plans and access the appropriate response opportunities. Planners and other officials should utilize research not only as additional socioeconomic agenda items in development plans, but as a trigger to national and local policy direction. Moreover, to holistically address the risks of slow onset events and other adverse impacts of climate change, governments must develop not just policies but pathways for climate finance to accelerate the reach of locality-led and science-backed initiatives in particular. COP23 must deliver responses on loss and damage, adaptation and finance in response to the ever-growing urgency of climate action. The Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage, established within two weeks after Haiyan struck the Philippines, must finally be financed. On the other hand, financial institutions and other stakeholders must also help to establish further measures to manage the risks of slow onset events. Countries must likewise ramp up their climate action so as to stay below the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming threshold set out in the Paris Agreement. The most vulnerable states, regions, countries must be given a fighting chance to survive and thrive amidst extreme weather events and creeping impacts alike.

Lourdes Tibig is Researcher at the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, Denise Margaret Matias is Researcher at the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE)

„Russland wird immer durch seine strategische Position ein Partner der EU bleiben.“ Diese deutlichen Worte stammen nicht etwa von einem Berufspolitiker oder einem in Russland tätigen deutschen Unternehmer, sondern von Stefan Borst, Mitbegründer und Partner bei der Beratungsfirma International Dialogue Advisors, deren Brüsseler Büro er leitet. Mit diesem einleitenden Satz stellte er gleich zu Beginn seines Vortrags eine Verbindung zu seinen Zuhörern her, den Mitgliedern einer dreizehnköpfigen Delegation junger russischer Nachwuchskräfte aus Politik und Verwaltung. Diese waren Mitte Oktober auf Einladung der Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung aus Moskau gekommen, um je zwei Tage in der belgischen Hauptstadt und in München zu verbringen und dort hochrangige Vertreter aus Politik, Verwaltung und Wirtschaft zu treffen.

DT 12/2017 - 8/11/2017
Antxon Olabe, Mikel González-Eguino y Teresa Ribera

Alrededor del 70% de las reservas de combustibles fósiles del mundo deberá quedar en el subsuelo sin explotar a fin de no sobrepasar el aumento de temperatura en 2ºC. Por suerte, en el ámbito de la generación eléctrica la transición energética ya ha comenzado.

Renewable and decentralized power generation are a centerpiece of Germany’s domestic energy transition (Energiewende) and a major element of its international efforts to promote this goal. Recently, the renewables sector has also been advancing in Russia, albeit from a lower level. Thus, it is time to explore the status quo and analyze the potential for sustainable energy cooperation. In the context of the current deterioration in EU-Russian (energy) relations, crafting a sustainable energy partnership that is based on innovation, with an emphasis on electricity cooperation, might present an added value.

„Die Spaltung Deutschlands ist unnatürlich“, sagte Bernhard Vogel. Und so gestaltete er auch seine Politik, ob vor oder nach der Wiedervereinigung.

Hans-Gert Pöttering lobte Benita Ferrero-Waldner. In ihrem Buch erinnert sie sich an die schwere Zeit der Sanktionen gegen Österreich in der EU.

Louvre Abu Dhabi : ceci n’est pas (qu’)un musée Institut Montaigne mar 07/11/2017 - 18:54

"Une ligne de l’Histoire du monde".

Quarter of French Muslims follow hardline Islam: study Institut Montaigne mar 07/11/2017 - 16:17 lun 19/09/2016 - 08:00 https://www.politico.eu/article/quarter-of-french-muslims-follow-hardline-islam-study/ A French Islam is possible Politico A study showing that more than a quarter of French Muslims follow hardline Islam is causing discomfort for the political class, which is united in ignoring its conclusions.

Der schwere verbale Angriff auf marokkanische Unternehmen durch den algerischen Außenminister Messahel ist nur ein weiteres i-Tüpfelchen der seit Jahrzehnten schwelenden Krise zwischen Marokko und Algerien. Marokkos besonnene Reaktion auf den Seitenhieb des mächtigen Nachbarn ist einmal mehr Beleg für das Vertrauen in seine Afrikapolitik und strategische Vision. Nach der Rückkehr in die Afrikanische Union und dem bevorstehenden Beitritt in die Westafrikanische Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft (ECOWAS) ist die Union des Arabischen Maghreb für die stabile Monarchie im Westen der arabischen Welt nur noch ein Kapitel für die Geschichtsbücher.

ARI 86/2017 - 7/11/2017
Mira Milosevich-Juaristi

Rusia ha utilizado en el referéndum en Cataluña la “combinación” (kombinaciya), un tipo de operación que puede integrar ciberguerra, ciberinteligencia, desinformación, propaganda y colaboración con actores hostiles a los valores de la democracia liberal.