Diplomacy & Crisis News

Barack Obama became president by campaigning against wars of choice. Unless he is able to turn an increasingly desperate situation around, his legacy as president may well be defeats of choice. The “wars of necessity vs. wars of choice” framework never could handle the burdens placed on it by partisan politicians. It purports to distinguish ...

The State Department released a tranche of Hillary Clinton's private e-mails on Friday, which include her correspondences following the 2012 attack on the U.S. compound in Benghazi, Libya in her capacity as secretary of state. The first batch of 296 e-mails can be viewed here on the State Department's website.

There has been some polite jostling going on this week between the U.S. Navy and Chinese military over the tepid waters of the South China Sea.

It is not just about drinking a few beers, though that can be part of it.

Editor’s note: The South Asia Channel will not publish a daily brief on Monday, May 25th in honor of Memorial Day. Regular publication will resume on Tuesday, May 26th. Afghanistan Deal with Pakistan causes controversy Reports of dissatisfaction and disagreement over an intelligence deal that Afghanistan signed with neighboring Pakistan have surfaced (RFE/RL, Pajhwok).  It ...

Why, from Syria to the two-state solution, the Obama administration should channel a little California.

By Paul McLeary with Ariel Robinson BREAKING: The U.S. Central Command announced this morning that Iraqi forces have broken through the Islamic State’s months-long siege of the Baiji oil refinery and are now resupplying the beleaguered Iraqi troops inside the facility. “In the past 72 hours, we have seen the ISF make steady, measured progress ...

The Islamic State is consolidating its hold on Palmyra after seizing the city this week. Militants have used the speakers at mosques used for the call to prayer to tell residents to turn in soldiers and government employees, and people remaining in the city have reported dozens of public executions. The Syrian government is reportedly ...

A powerful group of lawmakers is asking Defense Secretary Ashton Carter to reconsider the Pentagon’s recent decision to eliminate funding for Vets4Warriors.

With Thailand’s ailing monarch fading from the scene, Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha is positioning himself to rule indefinitely — by silencing all dissent.

A member of a pro-Islamic State forum has chipped in a rather out-of-the-box idea for jihad: turn Americans consumers off of salty snacks by associating them with beheadings -- a scheme he says will destroy the American economy.

A U.S.-led coalition is grappling over how to fight the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed allies in Libya and beyond without taking its eyes off Iraq and Syria.

An unlikely alliance of lawmakers, labor union, and the Tea Party could sink Obama's Asia trade bill in the House.

The NATO Resolute Support Mission’s (RSM’s) mandate to “train, advise, and assist,” but a better prerogative would be to “assess, train, advice, and assist.”

Like the families of the 1,400 U.S. Marines killed in action in recent years, Andrea and Jim Hug of Phoenix, Arizona planned to travel to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware this month to receive their son’s coffin after getting news that he died in a helicopter crash in Nepal.

When China declares an Air Defense Identification Zone in the South China Sea, the United States will have only itself to blame.

Want to build democracy in Venezuela? Start by luring expatriates back.

This actually is an ordinary mango. Photo Credit: Wee Keat Chin via Flickr

By Gary Bearden

What does a mango thrown at the head of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro tell us about Venezuela’s economic future? Not much. The mango, thrown on Wednesday, April 22, was just an ordinary mango. But the president’s curious response to the situation sheds light on what the country should expect in 2015 as it limps through an economic crisis and into legislative elections at the end of the year.

While Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) are already known for their populist programs and appeal, the president still made headlines by rewarding Marleny Olivio, 52, with a free apartment after she struck him in the head with the fruit. Far from exercising fiscal restraint, given the country’s economic uncertainty, Maduro’s response to the situation bodes poorly for a return to pragmatic spending policies and a potential recovery in 2015.

National Assembly elections do not yet have a date for 2015, but historically low popularity ratings for both Maduro and the PSUV ensure that Caracas will try to bolster public support by ramping up public spending and increasing their harassment of the private sector. To distract Venezuelans from the deepening crisis over the recent holiday season, for instance, Maduro launched “Operation Merry Christmas.” Armed with nearly 30,000 state inspectors, Caracas forced stores nationwide to cut prices on toys and electronics by up to 80 percent. Lucky Venezuelans were even able to purchase computers for as little as $75 before vendors sold out. Considered a success for holiday morale, the program simultaneously exacerbated shortages the country was already facing. Private companies remain trapped between suffering losses under the government’s pricing restrictions and currency controls, and exiting the market and risking the nationalization of their assets in the country.

While the short term benefits to consumers are obvious, unconstrained state spending, combined with the Maduro regime’s hostility toward the private sector, are exacerbating the everyday struggles of Venezuelan citizens and worsening the country’s economic outlook. Producers and stores are unwilling to keep goods in stock if they know the government will force them to sell at below market pricing. As a result, consumers in the South American country could soon face inflation rates between 150 and 200 percent, in addition to hours long queues for access to the most basic goods such as flour and cooking oil. The government even introduced fingerprint scanners in March as a means of rationing purchases throughout the country. Moreover, what began as rumors of toilet paper shortages in Venezuela, have since turned into a sad truth as some hotels even ask guests to bring their own supply when planning a stay.

Perhaps under conditions of high oil prices and revenues, the government’s populist spending might be sustainable. Under current economic conditions, however, Caracas cannot maintain this course and expect a positive outcome. Venezuela’s foreign reserves have fallen 15 percent in the first four months of 2015 to less than $21 billion, jeopardizing the government’s ability to meet its foreign debt obligations and continue financing vital imports such as food. Indeed, estimates indicate that Caracas will need to pay an additional $8.4 billion on foreign debt by the end of 2015 while balancing outstanding payments to the private sector that have reached as high as $10 billion in late April. Oil revenue makes up virtually all of Venezuela’s export income and has risen slightly in April, but remains at about half of what it was a year ago. Without a significant and swift increase, Caracas is on borrowed time.

Yet for two main reasons, the Maduro administration likely sees no alternative than to keep costly populist programs largely in place through 2015. First, many subsidy programs have become too popular for the government to reform. The state subsidy on gasoline, for instance, costs the government upwards of $15 billion each year. Outside of highlighting the issue as wasteful spending, Maduro has done little to address the program that gives Venezuelans access to gasoline at less than 10 cents per gallon. The last time the government tried to address the program resulted in the 1989 crisis known as “Caracazo.” Dozens of Venezuelans died and thousands more were injured in violent protests. Given today’s high social tension, taking steps to curtail the program could yield a similar result. Even popular ex-President Hugo Chavez, who remains a popular figure today, was unable to reform the expensive subsidy program during his time in office.

Second, the Maduro government likely feels that it needs to use every populist tool at its disposal to maintain voter support in the run up to 2015’s National Assembly elections as Maduro’s popularity has plunged to about 25 percent. A two-thirds opposition majority would allow them to unseat the president through a referendum, but this is unlikely given residual support for the PSUV. On the other hand, a simple majority in the 165-member legislative body is a real possibility that could frustrate Maduro’s agenda and even force him to reconcile with opposition policies in the longer term. The administration has hinted at its concerns by “updating” the population statistics that are linked to seat allocation in the Assembly, demonstrating a heavy bias toward districts that traditionally vote for the PSUV and against those that are pro-opposition.

It should not be forgotten that Chavistas under the current and previous administration, have proven their willingness to use force against anti-government demonstrations in the past, despite President Maduro’s generous treatment for Ms. Olivio and her mango. Venezuelans recall the government’s response to mass opposition protests in 2014 when a brutal crackdown resulted in over 40 citizen deaths. Moreover, having reacquired decree powers from the National Assembly in March, Maduro retains the ability to delay or cancel elections if he deems them a threat to national security. This possibility is hopefully a remote one as international observers are sure to be on hand after last year’s violent outburst. Should the country take yet another step away from democracy during the upcoming elections, Venezuela may find more regional powers aligning with Washington in support of sanctioning the Maduro administration.

In the meantime, Venezuelans and investors should not expect an economic solution to come from President Maduro for the remainder of 2015. Instead, President Maduro is more likely to be found preparing new apartments to trade for an outpouring of fruit from distressed citizens. As opposition blog Dolar Today quipped following the incident, “If for a mango they give you apartments, then you know what to do: throw him a pineapple!”

Gary Bearden is a foreign policy professional and current Political Risk Fellow with Young Professionals in Foreign Policy (YPFP). He has professional and living experience in Eastern Europe, North Africa and Latin America, holds three Bachelors degrees from Ohio State University and a Master of Science in Foreign Service from Georgetown University.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views of their employer or Young Professionals in Foreign Policy.

On the eve of a national referendum on gay marriage, queer Ireland finds its voice, and a Catholic stronghold looks toward the future.

Even in the self-declared caliphate, it’s hard to shake the yoke of nepotism.