Diplomacy & Crisis News

The government says it’s taking “incremental” steps toward reform, but the plan to reshape payouts for the poor is nothing short of a revolution.

A farmer in Patiala, India shows damage to wheat caused by unseasonably heavy rains in April 2015. While India and Pakistan don’t see eye to eye on pretty much anything, climate change dangers may help finally bring them together. Photo: Getty Images via aljazeera.com

Relations between India and Pakistan have been notoriously frosty for decades. But the two long-time adversaries will soon need to work together to effectively combat literal frost: in other words the effects of climate change.

Neil Bhatiya, a policy associate at the Century Foundation, reports that monsoon-level rains pounded Pakistan this past April — much earlier than expected — and resulted in at least 37 deaths. At the same time, unusually heavy spring rain also decimated wheat crops in India. Farming remains critically important to both countries’ economies: The World Bank estimates that about 47 percent of India’s, and 45 percent of Pakistan’s, workforce is employed in the agriculture and rural development sector.

In addition to impacts on the economy, both Mumbai and Karachi are susceptible to problems caused by rising sea levels. Just this week India suffered a debilitating heat wave that killed over 500 people. If these recent extremes are signs of things to come — and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts a higher rate of severe weather events in the next century — India and Pakistan could face significant environmental, economic and societal upheaval.

The situation may not be not as grim as it seems. Cooperation has already taken place between the two neighboring countries on the the Indus Waters Treaty, a scheme to share river resources that has been in place since the 1960s. Leadership in India and Pakistan have made some progress in developing renewable energy sources, notably solar.

Thus far these efforts have been pursued separately. India and Pakistan must somehow find a way to pool their ideas and initiatives. If they can, as Bhatiya writes, such interaction could “serve as confidence building measures for climate change cooperation an important cornerstone of the bilateral relationship, to the benefit of the region as a whole.”

Enemies for so long, India are linked by their geography and potential to be devastated by climate change. If anything could bring them together, it should be this.

Chinese construction on the previously submerged Hughes Reef. Photo: Tuoi Tre

I had not given much thought to the flight plan of the airline I recently booked to go back to the U.S. from Vietnam, but recent events in the airspace over the South China Sea prompted an online search. As I discovered, my commercial flight will be flying not far from where a U.S. surveillance plane was warned on Wednesday to leave by a Chinese radar operator.

The P8-A Poseidon, the U.S. military’s most advanced surveillance aircraft, was flying near artificial islands which China is constructing, and the order is thought to have come from an early warning radar station on Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Island chain, on which the Chinese have been constructing military facilities, which include a 10,000-foot runway. New satellite images show heightened reclamation work by China at seven sites in the Spratlys, adding around 2,000 acres of land since March 2014. Beijing claimed last month that the new islands would benefit provide weather forecasting and search and rescue facilities for the benefit of other countries, while admitting the islands could also be used for military purposes.

Also on board the P8-A Poseidon was a television crew from CNN, which recorded the American pilot insisting they were flying over international airspace. A commercial flight operated by Delta was also in contact with the Chinese radar operator during the confrontation with the U.S. military aircraft, and assured of safe passage. Following the incident, both Beijing and Washington accused each other of taking potentially dangerous actions, sparking memories of the 2001 collision between another U.S. surveillance plane and a Chinese fighter aircraft. In the 2001 confrontation, the Chinese pilot was killed while the American surveillance crew were detained on Hainan island.

The latest confrontation, along with earlier warnings to Philippine military aircraft to evacuate airspace in the same area, are igniting concern among claimant nations to the waters (Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan), as well as the Obama Administration. While China has not officially declared an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the South China Sea, it claims the right to establish an ADIZ — similar to the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone it introduced in November 2013. The U.S. response back then was similarly confrontational, as American B-52 bombers were ordered to fly through the zone. Both military and commercial aircraft operating in ADIZs are required to identify themselves or be subject to military intervention.

As tensions of claims to sovereignty in the South China Sea have escalated, the U.S. has repeatedly expressed its desire for freedom of navigation in the waters, which see around $5 trillion in shipments. To reinforce this message, the Pentagon is actively considering the deployment of military aircraft and ships to within 12 nautical miles to patrol the disputed waters and airspace of the Spratly archipelago.

In an apparent response to Wednesday’s confrontation, Chinese embassy spokesman Zhu Haiquan hoped “relevant parties” would not to take sides “and refrain from playing up tensions.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying added, “Freedom of navigation does not give one country’s military aircraft and ships free access to another country’s territorial waters and airspace,” according to Xinhua, China’s state-owned news agency.

Given China’s claim to some 90 percent of the South China Sea, how far Beijing is willing to prevent free access to any country’s military and ships remains to be seen.   “Freedom of Navigation” exercises were conducted by the U.S. military last year, and the combat ship USS Fort Worth just completed a week-long patrol near the disputed Spratly Islands, where it encountered numerous Chinese warships.

Other regional actors such as the Japanese may become more involved, should they decide to join the U.S. in conducting joint maritime air patrols.  Japan held its first joint naval exercise with the Philippines last week in the South China Sea, and has promised to supply Manila with 10 coastguard vessels by the end of the year.  Last week, foreign and local journalists were invited by Manila to tour the Thitu Island, the largest island occupied by the Philippines in the South China Sea.  Japan also conducted search and rescue training with Vietnam this week, and is supplying used navy patrol boats to Hanoi.

While the latest incident ended relatively quickly, the International Crisis Group warned in a report released last week that clashes in the South China Sea were “becoming more heated and the lulls between period of tension are growing shorter.” With the flight of the surveillance plane, Washington made it clear it would not tolerate any further restrictions to international airspace over the South China Sea, with Daniel Russel, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia, saying, “Nobody in their right mind is going to try to stop the U.S. Navy from operating.”

How far Washington will go to preserve freedom of navigation and how far Beijing is willing to assert sovereignty over the 90 percent of the South China Sea it claims remains to be seen. But small-scale skirmishes will continue, and despite warnings in the Global Times, a Chinese state-owned newspaper, that construction of the artificial islands is the country’s “most important bottom line,” and that “war is inevitable” unless Washington stops demanding Beijing halt the construction, China is not prepared for conflict with the United States, and the U.S. is not prepared to go to war with China over small piles of sand. Wednesday’s provocation was a carefully crafted combination of hard and soft power from Washington, using not a B-52 bomber but a surveillance plane, and using a television crew to curry international favor.  Sometimes using soft power to shame proves vastly more effective than forcing a country to save face with a military challenge.

To keep up with Democracy Lab in real time, follow us on Twitter and Facebook. Howard W. French argues that President Obama’s choice to run the United States Agency for International Development exposes the bankruptcy of Washington’s thinking on Africa. Juan Nagel profiles Venezuela’s top comedian, whose act exposes the absurdity of his country’s regime. ...

May/June Visual Statement

Modi's China visit was a triumph of style over substance, but cultural diplomacy may produce a meaningful shift in the relationship.

À l’occasion de la parution prochaine de son numéro d’été 2015, la revue Politique étrangère vous invite à la rencontre-débat organisée autour du thème : « La Russie, une puissance faible ? ».

Avec Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, responsable du Centre Russie/NEI de l’Ifri où elle dirige la collection électronique trilingue « Russie.NEI.Visions ».

La rencontre sera animée par Marc Hecker, rédacteur en chef de la revue Politique étrangère.

Rendez-vous le jeudi 18 juin à 19h à la librairie La 25e Heure (8 place du général Beuret, Paris 15e).

L’entrée est libre et gratuite dans la limite des places disponibles.

Over the weekend I did a quick interview with Ryan Crocker, the veteran American diplomat. Here it is: Was the current situation in Iraq inevitable?  No. Actions have consequences to the 60th order and beyond. The consequences of what we set in motion were beyond imagination. But inaction also has consequences. Our inaction since 2011 ...

A friend who is a retired Army officer makes this point: “We (the U.S.) have maneuvered ourselves into a position where tactical/operational victory in Iraq (neutralize ISIS) translates into strategic defeat — Iraq firmly under the influence of the Iranians.”

Gideon Rose’s 2010 book, How Wars End, suggests that when confronting a strategic challenge, it can be helpful to start with the desired political end state and then think backwards to determine the steps needed to get there.

La multiplication des alliances entre des Etats qu'a priori tout oppose rend plus délicate la compréhension des relations internationales. Et l'information accélère sans cesse la cadence, ce qui accroît la confusion ambiante. Dans ce contexte chaotique, comment conjurer les replis identitaires et (...) / France, Démocratie, Extrême droite, Idées, Idéologie, Information, Médias, Mouvement de contestation, Politique, Relations internationales, Stratégie, Extrême gauche - 2015/05

Afghanistan Afghan envoy met Taliban officials in China A peace envoy from Afghanistan met with former Taliban officials in western China last week in an effort to keep formal peace negotiations alive (NYT, WSJ). The meeting, which took place on Wednesday and Thursday, was held in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang, and was partly organized ...

But what looks like a scary arms race with Washington may not be what it seems.

Ban Ki-moon says he is not interested in running for the South Korean presidency. The polls say he is the front-runner.

By Paul McLeary with Ariel Robinson   Here it comes. In what may be the biggest test yet of the Iraqi armed forces’ strength — and the ability of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to wrangle the various Shiite, Kurd and Sunni factions — Baghdad on Tuesday launched what it says is a major offensive in ...

A U.N. spokesman announced on Sunday that peace talks between the warring parties in Yemen — set to be held later this week — have been postponed. No new date was mentioned. It had been unclear who would attend the talks, which were only set last week, but the postponement is a serious blow to ...

Colombia’s peace process faces its most serious crisis yet, after the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) suspended a five month old unilateral ceasefire. Instead of more measures to de-escalate the conflict ahead of a final peace agreement, there are now new risks that the confrontation will escalate, causing fresh humanitarian damage, crippling trust between the parties and further weakening public support for the process.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.

United Nations-backed containment measures aimed at stemming the deadly cholera epidemic in western Tanzania&#39s Lake Tanganyika region appear to be working, the Organization&#39s refugee agency (UNHCR) announced today amid a tapering off in the number of reported deaths among both Burundian refugees and locals.

(Own report) - Today, Tuesday, German Minister of Defense Ursula von der Leyen will begin several days of talks in New Delhi on questions of military and arms policies. India's new armament projects are the immediate reason for von der Leyen's visit. India wants, among other things, to construct German submarines under license, and Berlin is seeking a more intensified cooperation in foreign and military policy. This visit will prepare numerous agreements, within the framework of the German-Indian government consultations, scheduled for October. It takes place in the context of India's efforts to roll back China's influence in the Indian Ocean - an effort Berlin supports. Sri Lanka is a current point of contention of this power struggle. Over the past few years, this strategically important island nation has begun to ally itself closely with Beijing. To avoid a too strong dependency on China, the new Sri Lankan government - in office since January - is seeking to reduce its ties to China and strengthen relations to the West. Last week, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany's Minister of Foreign Affairs, welcomed his Sri Lankan counterpart in Berlin, to reinforce Germany's position in Sri Lanka - in light of the power struggle with Beijing.