Diplomacy & Crisis News

Un État qui, sans motif réel, dénonce un accord international de désarmement qu'il a longuement négocié peut-il ensuite menacer d'agression militaire un autre État signataire ? Quand il s'agit des États-Unis, la réponse est « oui ». En somme, il est parfaitement inutile de perdre son temps à étudier les (...) / Golfe, Iran, Proche-Orient, États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Nucléaire militaire, Relations internationales, Conflit, Diplomatie - 2019/06

Until recently, Namacurra district, in the Zambezia province of Mozambique, some 1,500 km from the capital Maputo, did not have any basic services – such as schools, health centres, or even energy – connecting the region to the electricity grid would be extremely time-consuming, and costly. But a new UN-backed clean energy initiative looks set to change the outlook for Namacurra, and, within a matter of months, kickstart sustainable development for the benefit of the thousands of people, relocated to the area following the devastating rains of 2015, and it could herald an improved outlook for other economically disadvantaged parts of Africa.

Le nouveau numéro de Politique étrangère (n° 1/2019) vient de paraître :
2019-2029 – Quel monde dans 10 ans ?

Découvrez quotidiennement un extrait de l’un des articles de ce nouveau numéro.

Cette citation est extraite de l’article de Kishore Mahbubani, « 2029, la grande renaissance asiatique », publié dans le n° 1/2019 de Politique étrangère.

Retrouvez le sommaire complet ici.

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L’air du large«Elections européennes: une tendance, trois Europe et des questions de politique étrangère». La chronique de Frédéric CharillonFrédéric Charillon 28 mai 2019 à 12h45« La nouvelle donne européenne pose la question des relations extérieures : avec quels partenaires, avec quel projet et sur quels thèmes l’Europe, à la fois comme entité unique et comme addition de politiques étrangères nationales, souhaite-t-elle jouer un rôle dans le monde ? » Le rayonnement européen de certains leaders nationalistes (Orban, Salvini…), les adresses publiées par Emmanuel Macron dans les journaux des différents pays membres, la préoccupation environnementale commune, de nouveaux médias ou des traitements plus internationaux de la part de médias traditionnels, ont fini par inscrire l’élection de mai 2019 dans une véritable vie politique européenne commune, avec une participation honorable (50,5 %). Il ressort de ce scrutin l’installation d’un clivage qui s’observe à l’échelle d’une société européenne à deux vitesses, entre une Europe de l’ouverture et une Europe de la fermeture. Cette confrontation aboutit à des rapports de force variables d’un Etat à l’autre et donne lieu à trois catégories de situations : celle où l’ouverture reste de mise, celle où elle a cédé devant le souverainisme, celle où les deux sont au coude-à-coude. Au-delà des compétitions partisanes nationales, cette donne pose la question des relations extérieures : avec quels partenaires, avec quel projet et sur quels thèmes l’Europe, à la fois comme entité unique et comme addition de politiques étrangères nationales, souhaite-t-elle jouer un rôle dans le monde ?Vers un clivage binaire transeuropéenLes scores des partis écologistes (20,7 % en Allemagne, 16 % en Finlande, 15 % en Irlande, 13,5 % en France) et des partis libéraux font de ces deux forces (qui deviendront les groupes Verts/ALE et ADLE au Parlement européen) les nouvelles puissances montantes du continent. Mais elles partagent cet honneur avec les partis d’extrême droite ou nationalistes : Orban (56 %) et Salvini (33,8 %) triomphent, le PiS polonais (42,2 %) demeure, l’AfD (10,8 %) s’installe en Allemagne, et le RN arrive en tête en France. Avec des résultats différents selon les pays, le clivage droite-gauche fait place à une confrontation entre deux visions programmatiques différentes, l’une qui voit le salut dans la coopération multilatérale, démocratique et libérale, et l’autre dans une réappropriation nationale et protectionniste de la gestion des affaires publiques.
Lire la suite dans L'Opinion

Visiting storm-ravaged Mozambique, UN Children’s Fund Goodwill Ambassador Orlando Bloom, listened to devastating stories of children who lost everything in Cyclone Idai, while observing on Thursday that UNICEF-built safe spaces have given them “a sense of normality”.

Top stories this Thursday: UN chief Guterres received the Charlemagne Prize for services towards European unification; sexual abuse in Somalia and within the UN; a leap in transgender rights; news from Libya; and new political appointments at the UN.  

A marked escalation in fighting has put tens of thousands of children in northwest Syria at “imminent risk of injury, death and displacement”, the United Nations Children’s Fund’s (UNICEF) chief warned on Thursday.

“To reflect critical advances in science and medicine”, the World Health Organization, WHO, has removed so-called “gender identity disorder” from its official manual of diagnoses, which is being hailed as a major win for transgender rights.

In the first quarter of 2019, according to latest figures released on Thursday, the United Nations recorded a total of 37 allegations of sexual exploitation and abuse (SEA) against UN personnel, including civilian and uniformed personnel from peacekeeping operations, agencies, funds and programmes. So far, most of these allegations remain under investigation.

Depuis sa nomination à la tête du Parti travailliste, M. Jeremy Corbyn a essuyé de nombreuses critiques : on lui reproche son inefficacité, ses hésitations sur l'Europe, sa propension à protester plutôt qu'à gouverner et ses mauvaises fréquentations. Mais une accusation, infamante, revient : celle (...) / Racisme, Religion, Judaïsme, Parti politique, Royaume-Uni - 2019/06

With the post-world war international institutions eroded and under threat, a “strong and united Europe” standing alongside the United Nations, has never been more essential, said UN chief António Guterres in Germany on Thursday.

Le nouveau numéro de Politique étrangère (n° 1/2019) vient de paraître :
2019-2029 – Quel monde dans 10 ans ?

Découvrez quotidiennement un extrait de l’un des articles de ce nouveau numéro.

Cette citation est extraite de l’article de Thomas Gomart, directeur de l’Ifri,
« Entre concentration et dispersion : le bel avenir de la puissance », publié dans le n° 1/2019 de Politique étrangère. Lisez l’article dans son intégralité ici.

Retrouvez le sommaire complet ici.

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If the battle to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to be won or lost in cities, then they need to “achieve a lasting impact on communities and to ensure that no one is left behind,” the head of the UN agency dealing with sustainable urban development said on Wednesday.

This Wednesday, we cover: the dangers of smoking for World No Tobacco Day; China’s creative economy; sustainability through family farming, floating cities and #ClimateAction.

Further inaction on climate change is “simply not an option”, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres said on Wednesday in an opinion piece where he called for “rapid and deep change in how we do business, generate power, build cities and feed the world.”   

The havoc caused by cyclones Idai and Kenneth across Mozambique is “a wake-up call” for vulnerable countries “to build resistance" against further high-impact tropical storms, coastal flooding and intense rainfall linked to climate change, according to the United Nations weather agency chief. 

Tobacco use continues to claim around eight million lives a year, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday, in a call for faster action from governments to tackle smoking and the “enormous” health, social, environmental and economic costs it entails.

The top United Nations body in the Asia-Pacific region opened its annual session this week, calling for greater empowerment of disadvantaged and marginalized groups if the region is to achieve the ambitious 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and fulfill its promise to leave no one behind.

With recent rocket tests being conducted by North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea – DPRK), it appears the regime of Kim Jung Un is pushing the bounds of sanctions and effectiveness of the negotiation process with the international community, including bilaterally with President Trump. Not only has it tested missiles (demonstrating a potential regional threat to South Korea, which also houses nearly 30,000 U.S. troops, Japan and the U.S.), it seems as if Kim Jung Un is disregarding the international community as a whole.

The sanctions specifically have placed restrictions on: exports to North Korea (such as crude oil, condensates, natural gas and aviation fuel); imports from North Korea (such as metals, all arms and other manufacturing goods); financial and economic sectors (focusing on the banking system, assets, including from individuals and joint ventures); and North Korean shipping vessels.

The United Nations as well as the United States, European Union, China, South Korea and Japan, have imposed a slew of economic sanctions on North Korea since 2006. Different sanctions measures have been designed to pressure North Korea, a country of 25 million people, to halt its nuclear weapons and missile programs in return for a lifting of the economic pressure. President Trump and Kim, leader since 2011, held two summits to discuss the sanctions and nuclear issues in June 2018 in Singapore and February 2019 in Hanoi, Vietnam. Neither summit resulted in a substantial resolution of the issues at hand. North Korea said negotiations will not resume unless the Trump administration adjusts its unilateral position for disarmament.

These restrictions have further weakened North Korea’s already struggling economy. Nevertheless, the intended effectiveness has not yielded the extensive impacts, as some countries and companies are not consistently enforcing the agreed terms.

Effects on Energy

Sanctions have hit the energy sector in the country particularly hard, providing a further obstacle to meet its needs. North Korea’s energy landscape was already in an unenviable state. Necessary quantities of fuels are further out of reach, the country hasn’t effectively tapped its own resources, much of its infrastructure is aging and unreliable and only 27 percent of its population has access to electricity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Kim has been quoted saying increasing electricity access is a priority.

Currently North Korea relies on hydropower, coal and petroleum products for most of its energy needs. Its electricity mix is dominated by hydroelectric power at an estimated 76 percent and the balance is derived from coal and petroleum. Electricity derived from nuclear energy certainly does not appear to be available anytime in the near-term. Another avenue being explored is tidal energy. With development of technology, with assistance from international experts, North Korea’s coastal regions can be capable of harnessing the emerging power source. With the demand, biomass, waste, and solar energy have also grown in residential, military and rural applications to avoid unreliability and lack of access.

Sanctions cap refined petroleum exports to North Korea at 500 thousand barrels per year and crude oil imports are regulated to four million barrels per year. The nation imports nearly all of its oil and petroleum products from China.

To combat the choking off of international commodities, Kim is focused on energy sources that are not vulnerable to sanctions, which could also partially alleviate the nation’s economic struggles.

While past oil exploration has proven unfruitful, coal has been found to be plentiful – there is an estimated 661 million short tons as of 2015, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA). Coal was an economic driver and source of revenue through exports and domestic uses. Exports shipments to China dominated its customer base. In fact, in 2016 China imported 22 million tonnes valued at more than one billion USD. However, now its legal exports have been limited.

Harnessing the domestic supply, Kim Jung Un envisions ramping up coal-based synthetic fuels to utilize as a substitute to oil and petroleum products. Direct applications would include: power, industry, heating, fertilizer and in vehicles. With the positives, come the negatives, such as low efficiency and higher cost. However, with its reduced coal exports, there will be more supply available for domestic uses. Yet estimates show not all primary imports affected by the sanctions will be able to be replaced by the synthetic substitute.

With the prominence of the military, providing a reliable energy supply has been cited by commentators as a motivating factor for the forward-thinking actions.

Avoiding Sanctions

North Korea has become crafty discovering methods to partially work around the restrictive sanctions, including a rising amount of ship-to-ship oil transfers and related products, continuing coal exports, defrauding banks and commodity traders, and selling various arms, according to a U.N. report. The U.S. seized a North Korean cargo ship over accusations it was used for coal shipments in violation of sanctions. North Korean Ambassador to the U.N., Kim Song, rebutted the U.S. saying it was violating international law. The report continues that North Korea has taken advantage of operating in international waters, using vessels flagged from countries that do not monitor vessels sailing under their registries, or “flags of convenience”. It is speculated that China may be one of the actors.

North Korea also recently hosted what is estimated to have been the largest international trade conference in its history, attended by more than 450 companies representing multiple industries. The turnout certainly gives the appearance companies want to pursue potential trade despite broader restrictions. Parties were represented from Russia, Pakistan, Poland, China, among others.

China has been viewed as integral for effective sanctions due to its bilateral relationship, accounting for over 90 percent of its trade, shared geography and overall influence. North Korea is important for China geopolitically, too. Chinese President Xi Jingping wants stability in its region and to be a stakeholder to stave off Kim’s regime from potentially collapsing, which could lead to thousands of refugees, less international stature and close the distance of U.S. troops in South Korea. This is not to say China is hostile to South Korea; opposite in fact. South Korea is one of China’s most important trading partners with two-way trade tallying well over $100 billion.

Kim has also traveled to Russia to cultivate a relationship with Vladimir Putin to seek support in negotiations and improving its economy. Russia does not fully support sanctions but does not support North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons either.

Working Together

South Korea stated it will provide food and medical supplies to North Korea through the U.N. with the country suffering through severe drought. It also said it may consider broader food aid. South Korean President Moon Jae-in has voiced optimism that the actions can provide a path to rekindle talks with North Korea. Some in North Korea have met the news with skepticism, claiming South Korea is avoiding fundamental issues with a PR stunt.

Outside of humanitarian engagement, South Korean experts have proposed an idea of revamping and providing technical know-how to assist the North’s complications with electricity generation and distribution. North Korea’s electricity grid and generation would cost in magnitude of billions of U.S. dollars to bring up to today’s standards, especially reliability and efficiency. A substantial amount of energy infrastructure is decades old and not well maintained.

Perhaps if a global agreement in regard to weapons and sanctions is reached, North and South Korea can build on that momentum and continue in line with the Panmunjom Declaration, from April 2017, when the two governments agreed to work together to end its decades long conflict.

The post Where Next with North Korea and Negotiations appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Le 23 mai dernier, Jacques Munier, journaliste sur France Culture, a consacré sa chronique « Le Journal des idées », à la Syrie.
Il cite à cette occasion l’article de Fawaz A. Gerges, publié en mars dans le numéro de Politique étrangère spécial 40 ans de l’Ifri (n° 1/2019) : « Le Moyen-Orient en 2029 ».

[…] « Les guerres qui ravagent aujourd’hui le Moyen-Orient n’ont pas vocation à se poursuivre éternellement et la région n’est pas vouée à être dirigée par des autocrates », estime Fawaz A. Gerges dans la dernière livraison de la revue Politique étrangère, qui se projette dans les dix années à venir. Le professeur de relations internationales à la London School of Economics évoque « une guerre froide régionale opposant trois acteurs clés – Iran, Arabie Saoudite et Turquie » au cœur des conflits actuels. Sur le terrain « la division criante du monde arabe entre une identité nationale et des identités tribales, religieuses et sectaires se manifeste par de violents affrontements ». […]

Lire la chronique de Jacques Munier en entier sur France Culture.

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