Diplomacy & Crisis News

Stephen Silver

Child Tax Credit,

A White House fact sheet lays out more about how the Credit will work starting in 2022.

Following weeks of negotiations, the Biden administration has reached a “framework” of what will be in the version of the president’s “Build Back Better” plan that will likely go before Congress for a vote soon.

The deal is not final, but in an email to supporters, the Biden-Harris political operation described the Framework as “a plan for my agenda I believe can pass the House and Senate.”

There have been various reports in recent weeks about what was in or out of the bill, but President Joe Biden’s announcement says that the expanded Child Tax Credit will indeed remain. However, while the administration had originally hoped to extend it by five years, the framework only extends it for one.

A White House fact sheet laid out more about how the credit will work starting in 2022.

“The Build Back Better framework will provide monthly payments to the parents of nearly 90 percent of American children for 2022—$300 per month per child under six and $250 per month per child ages 6 to 17,” the White House said. “This historic tax cut will help cover the cost of food, housing, health care, and transportation and will continue the largest one-year reduction in child poverty in history. And critically, the framework includes permanent refundability for the Child Tax Credit, meaning that the neediest families will continue to receive the full Child Tax Credit over the long-run.”

Brought into being by the American Rescue Plan Act in March of 2021, the monthly payments from the Child Tax Credit began in July, and have continued every month through December, while most will get additional credits when they file their taxes next year.

The Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University has been issuing reports in recent months about how the Child Tax Credit has made a difference in reducing poverty, even after the first month.

“Using our innovative approach to tracking monthly poverty rates, we project that ongoing COVID relief efforts continue to have a sizable effect on reducing child poverty keeping 6 million children from poverty in July 2021 alone (a reduction of more than 40 percent). This impact also resulted in a notable drop in child poverty between June and July 2021, due primarily to the rollout of the expanded Child Tax Credit. On its own, this new payment kept 3 million children from poverty in its first month,” the Center said in late August.

Others, such as Bruce Meyer and co-authors, at the Becker Friedman Institute at the University of Chicago, have been argued that the Child Tax Credit discourages work.

The Build Back Better framework is only a framework and has not passed Congress yet.

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist, and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters

This week in FP’s international news quiz: summits galore, a princess in flight, and a real “Great Pumpkin.”

Acting unanimously on Friday, the Security Council adopted a unique resolution strongly condemning attacks against schools, children and teachers and urging conflict parties to immediately safeguard the right to education.

Stephen Silver

Kim Jong-Un, Asia

Kim has a long track record of going into seclusion. 

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has been known to disappear from public view for long stretches. During one period in 2020, Kim’s disappearance even led to widespread rumors around the world that he was ill or even dead. Earlier this year, Kim emerged from an extended absence appearing to have lost a great deal of weight, leading to another round of speculation about his personal health and his hold on power. 

Kim, who will mark a decade in power this December, has now been absent from public appearances for close to two weeks, NK News reported, marking his eighth absence of more than two weeks just this year. Kim last appeared in public on October 11, when he posed in front of weapons that were unveiled shortly before North Korea’s latest missile launch. 

The report stated that “satellite images have shown renewed activity off the coast of his family palace in Wonsan,” suggesting that Kim has been spending time at the estate believed to be his childhood home. 

“The activity suggests the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) leader… may be spending yet more time at his childhood home on the east coast this month, while his subordinates oversee cabinet meetings and missile tests and make economic inspections around the country,” NK News said. 

The site also published a chart detailing Kim’s absences from public view since he took power in late 2011. 

“Boats that may be his multimillion-dollar yachts appeared cruising at Kim’s private Wonsan beach on Oct. 24 and away from one of his large leisure crafts anchored at a nearby island on Oct. 25,” according to Planet Labs satellite imagery. However, the quality of the images “makes it difficult to determine the precise type of boats being used,” NK News said. 

While state media has reported on Kim’s actions, including letters he sent to foreign leaders and an appearance at a cemetery, state media has not released photographs of Kim. Kim was not present for the recent missile test.

Meanwhile, Radio Free Asia (RFA) reported this week that Kim has built luxury villas over the old home of Kim Il-Sung, his grandfather and the first leader of North Korea. The home is known as “Mansion No. 5,” and was the home of the current leader’s grandfather between 1950 and 1970. 

“Terraced houses are being built on the banks of the Potong River, and they are being touted as an example of modern development in the Kim Jong Un era,” a Pyongyang resident told RFA. 

 Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist, and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters

Caleb Larson

Japan, Asia

Japan is taking defense more seriously than at any time since World War II. And the U.S. Navy is right there to help.

A recent exercise involving the U.S. and Japanese Navy underlines the two country’s increasing military ties.

The  U.S. Navy detailed the activities of a Surface Action Group formed between a Japanese Murasame-class destroyer and a U.S. Navy Independence-class Littoral Combat Ship.

The pair of ships practiced a variety of “surface warfare tactics to include flight operations, communications drills and coordinated tactical maneuvering, all designed to enhance interoperability and enabling the ships to practice bilateral tactics in close proximity to one another.”

“Meeting our JMSDF (Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force) allies in the South China Sea allowed both of our teams to build readiness as we sail in the Indo-Pacific,” explained Cmdr. Michael Root, commanding officer of the USS Jackson’s Gold Crew. “The complex maneuvering and operations we accomplished without meeting face-to-face reflects the strong friendship and maritime professionalism that our nations and navies share.”

The Russia-China Connection

The joint U.S.-Japanese cooperation comes on the heels of significant Chinese and Russian activity in the western Pacific. Chinese and Russian warships conducted their first-ever joint patrol that included tactical maneuvers and other military drills from October 17 to October 23. 

Although closer military integration between Russia and China is worrisome for the United States, the recent exercises were particularly concerning for Japan. During the exercise, the Sino-Russian flotilla passed through the Tsugaru Strait, a body of water separating Japan’s northern Hokkaido island from the Honshu mainland and connecting the Sea of Japan with the Pacific Ocean.

During a press conference, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian emphatically stated that “China and Russia are united like a mountain, and our friendship is unbreakable. Under the strategic guidance of President Xi Jinping and President Putin, bilateral relations have withstood the test of the changing international landscape, setting an example of a new type of major-country relationship.”

Power Projection

The United States Marine Corps has recently paired with the Japanese Navy when a pair of USMC F-35Bs conducted operations off one of Japan’s Izumo-class helicopter destroyers, validating their new decks, modified to support F-35B operations. Though dubbed helicopter destroyers, the Izumo-class ships are, in effect, light aircraft carriers, able to host the forty-two F-35Bs Japan has on order from the United States.

Although the Japan Self-Defense Forces are constitutionally constrained to be a defensive force only, increasing tension in Japan’s near-abroad has prompted increased Japanese military investment and an increased power projection capability.

Not only is Japan putting serious investment in its naval capabilities, with an emphasis on interoperability with the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps, but the country is also taking defense more seriously than perhaps any time since World War II.

Caleb Larson is a multimedia journalist and Defense Writer with the National Interest. He lives in Berlin and covers the intersection of conflict, security, and technology, focusing on American foreign policy, European security, and German society.

Image: Reuters

Belarusian strongman Aleksandr Lukashenko seems to have learned that neutering U.S. diplomacy is cost-free.

Regional cooperation didn’t lead to peace at the 1991 Madrid Conference—and it won’t today.

Ethen Kim Lieser

Social Security,

There are simple ways to maximize your Social Security checks. 

For tens of millions of American seniors who hope to have a comfortable retirement, every single dollar is precious.

That’s why it is incredibly important to make the right decisions at the right time regarding one’s Social Security benefits. A simple mistake could cost a senior tens of thousands of dollars. 

However, according to the financial site The Motley Fool, the bad news is that the monthly Social Security retirement benefit currently only comes in at a measly $1,559, amounting to roughly $18,700 annually.

“Chances are, that’s not looking like a perfectly sufficient annual income on which to live in retirement,” the site writes. “The good news is that you can, and should, supplement that with other income streams, such as retirement accounts, annuities, dividend-paying stocks, and perhaps even a pension, among other things.”

For those who are aiming to get their hands on more than just the average Social Security check, here are three helpful tips.

Delay Filing

It appears that the biggest decision one can make to net a higher monthly payout is to wait until turning seventy to file for Social Security benefits. “Workers planning for their retirement should be aware that retirement benefits depend on age at retirement. If a worker begins receiving benefits before his/her normal (or full) retirement age, the worker will receive a reduced benefit. A worker can choose to retire as early as age sixty-two, but doing so may result in a reduction of as much as thirty percent. Starting to receive benefits after normal retirement age may result in larger benefits. With delayed retirement credits, a person can receive his or her largest benefit by retiring at age seventy,” the Social Security Administration (SSA) notes.

Earn More While Working

Do keep in mind that Social Security benefits are primarily based on lifetime earnings. So, it’s best to always try to beef up one’s annual income. “If you’re not earning that much more than you have in the past, you can … juice your earnings for a few years or a lot of years by taking on a side gig or two. Think about ways you could generate more income that seem at least a little appealing. Maybe drive for a ride-sharing service on the weekends? Rent out your home or apartment now and then? Make and sell things online—like jewelry, crocheted items, candles, photographs, etc.? Do some freelance or contractor work? There are many possibilities,” the financial site writes.

Have a High-Earning Spouse

Spouses can have a huge impact on how much a senior will receive in their Social Security checks. This is true “when you're both receiving benefits, they will be more sizable due to your spouse’s bigger checks. If your partner dies before you, your household will go from two Social Security checks to just one—but you won’t be stuck with your smaller one. You’re allowed to start receiving the larger of the two from that point on,” writes The Motley Fool. 

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.

Image: Reuters

With mass civil protests against this week’s military coup planned for Saturday in Sudan, the UN Secretary-General has a simple message: “I urge the military to show restraint, and not to create any more victims.” 

Stephen Silver

North Korea, Asia

North Korea, facing potential economic devastation, is considering at least partially reopening its border with China. 

Since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, North Korea has taken extraordinary efforts to keep its border with China closed. While North Korea has claimed throughout the pandemic that it has zero cases of the coronavirus, its regime appears to have long been fearful that the virus could cross the border from China. 

Now, a new report says that North Korea, facing potential economic devastation, is considering at least partially reopening its border with China. 

According to Yonhap News Agency, the North Korean regime “appears to be making earnest preparations to reopen its train routes with China after a period of COVID-19-induced border controls.” 

This would follow the reopening of sea routes for the receipt of medical supplies. 

A spokesperson for South Korea’s unification ministry told Yonhap that the South Korean government “has detected signs indicating preparations for a trade resumption in the regions bordering China, such as the construction of a quarantine facility.” South Korea’s assessment is based on intelligence from the National Intelligence Service (NIS), which also reported that the North Koreans are talking with China and Russia to continue train operations.

“It’s hard to predict the exact date of their resumption. We will continue closely monitoring related movements,” the South Korea spokesperson told Yonhap. 

The report also said that, as Kim Jong-un’s tenth anniversary in power approaches, the regime has “removed portraits of Kim’s father and grandfather, former leaders Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung, respectively, from the backdrop of official meetings in an apparent move to depart from the shadow of his predecessors.”

The regime has also begun using the term “Kimjongunism,” as a successor to Kimilsungism and Kimjongilism, as South Korean intelligence has determined, per Yonhap. 

Also, this week, a UN General Assembly committee approved three separate resolutions related to North Korea, including one demanding the “complete, verifiable and irreversible” abandonment of its nuclear program. 

“Other provisions would have the Assembly reaffirm its commitment to the complete, verifiable, and irreversible abandonment of all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programmes of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), in accordance with relevant Security Council resolutions,” a summary quoted by Yonhap said. 

“The Assembly would reiterate its condemnation of the six nuclear tests conducted by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in violation of relevant Security Council resolutions and urge that country’s full compliance… it would welcome all efforts and dialogue to that end, including inter‑Korean summits and summits between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea,” the summary continued.

The resolution was rebuked by a North Korean delegate, the report said. The resolutions come as a push is underway for an end of the Korean war declaration.

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist, and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters

A rash of robbings, kidnappings, and even killings is aggravating Afghanistan’s dire situation.

The United States and its allies need to do more than talk about democracy; they must act to defend it.

Ethen Kim Lieser

Coronavirus,

It could be caused by overconfidence and America’s poor vaccination numbers. 

Recent data indicate that new coronavirus infections in the United States have plunged nearly sixty percent since the September spike that was brought on by the highly contagious Delta variant.

However, there are still several states that are struggling to handle rising cases, especially as colder weather brings more people indoors and may make viral transmission much easier. The complacency that comes with improved data combined with the still high numbers of unvaccinated Americans could, in fact, help start a deadly fifth wave of the virus, according to Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

“Just remember that sixty-five million Americans who could be vaccinated right now are not. That is more than enough human wood for this coronavirus forest fire to burn. So, we’ll see when the case numbers come down with this surge, just as we have with the previous surges,” Osterholm noted in a recent interview on Minnesota Public Radio.

“And you may recall last spring that I thought the darkest days of the pandemic were ahead of us. And we were facing that June period when everybody said, ‘Oh, it’s done.’ We’ve got vaccines, hardly any cases—and then look what happened. Well, that's going to happen again because you have places like New York City, L.A., and other large metropolitan areas with lots of people. … I can’t say this enough times: If you are not vaccinated, this virus will find you. And you will know a COVID-19-related outcome. We could see again major activity. (It could be this) winter, next spring, I don’t know when but it’s not done. It is not done. The one thing that will help us get it done is to get vaccinated,” he continued.

Osterholm is also a strong proponent of booster shots, saying that they “are absolutely a part of the future. When you think about what we’ve done with these vaccines over the course of the last eighteen to twenty months … these vaccines are really incredible, but they’re not perfect.”

COVID Becoming Endemic?

As to whether COVID-19 will eventually become endemic like the seasonal flu, Osterholm stated that he believes “that will happen … [but] I don’t know when.”

“Every morning I get up I scrape those five inches of crusted mud off my crystal ball. And every day, it seems cloudier and cloudier. If we see a major change and variant, and they do something different than they’re doing now, that could surely cloud the picture of: When does it just become like flu? Like every year, we have some cases, we may have some moderate increase in cases,” Osterholm added.

“But that is not what it’s doing now. I think we forget about the fact of just what damage this virus has done with over the seven hundred thousand deaths that have occurred—one out of every five hundred Americans has died from this virus. That’s amazing when we look at the fact that there are now over a hundred forty thousand kids in this country who have been orphaned, or whose sole caregiver has died, because of COVID-19,” he concluded.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.

Image: Reuters. 

Staff fear ambitious goals won’t trickle down to the rank and file

Countries must step up urgent action to address the water-related consequences of climate change, the head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and nine other international organizations said on Friday in a letter to world leaders issued ahead of the COP26 UN climate change conference. 

The director of the only media outlet in the country to cover the Pandora Papers speaks out.

Stephen Silver

DirecTV,

DirecTV’s exclusivity is set to expire after the 2022 season, and the NFL has been vocal about wanting to go with a different partner. 

It’s been known for quite a while that the NFL’s Sunday Ticket package, which has been exclusive to DirecTV since it first launched in 1994, is going to come up for bid in the near future. DirecTV’s exclusivity is set to expire after the 2022 season, and the NFL has been vocal about wanting to go with a different partner. 

This week, the NFL commissioner made that clear in public comments. 

According to CNBC, the issue came up at NFL owners’ meetings in New York this week, the first time since the pandemic it occurred in person. And while the CNBC story concentrated on recent controversies involving the e-mail scandal of former Las Vegas Raiders coach Jon Gruden and allegations of misconduct at the Washington Football Team, the Sunday Ticket issue was still raised. 

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell called Sunday Ticket a “streaming product,” and indicated that it will move from a satellite project to a digital one, as CNBC characterized his comments. 

“I think that is best for our fans to make it accessible on a digital platform,” the commissioner said. 

The report, cited “a person familiar with the NFL’s thinking about Sunday Ticket” told the network that “several tech companies” are interested in the package. The story also said that “in league circles, the rumblings suggest the NFL eventually wants to lure Apple to take it over.” 

CNBC reiterated that the NFL would like to offer creative options in Sunday Ticket, including “giving consumers the option to purchase individual team games,” as well as possibly allowing different streaming services to carry the American Football Conference (AFC) and National Football Conference (NFC) packages, the way those conferences are split between CBS and Fox on Sunday afternoons. 

Some reports of late have stated that DirecTV could retain the satellite side of the Sunday Ticket package, but the CNBC story did not mention that possibility. Also reported by CNBC was that the NFL hired Goldman Sachs last year to find investment partners in NFL.com and the NFL Network. 

The report added that the NFL hopes to for an agreement with a new partner before the start of next season, even though it wouldn’t go into effect until the season after that. 

Earlier this year, the NFL extended its standard TV deals, maintaining Fox, CBS, NBC, and ABC/ESPN as partners, while adding streaming elements to the package. Those include Amazon Prime as the new exclusive home of the Thursday Night Football package. Amazon has also been mentioned as a possible partner for Sunday Ticket. 

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters

Caleb Larson

Drones,

The Pentagon awarded development contracts to two of America’s unmanned aerial vehicle heavyweights to develop a new UAV as soon as next year.

The United States Department of Defense has awarded development contracts to Kratos Unmanned Aerial Systems and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems to develop an Off-Boarding Sensing Station (OBSS) for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Both contracts, which were awarded separately, cover “the design, development, and flight demonstration in an open architecture aircraft concept to achieve the goals of rapid time-to-market and low acquisition cost,” with both companies’ work anticipated to be completed by October 31st, 2022. The Department of Defense awarded both companies about $17.7 million each and included an option for the companies to increase their payouts to just under $32 million.

Kratos’ Off-Boarding Sensing Station 

Kratos’s statement regarding the award explains that the OBSS will be an entirely new unmanned aerial system. However, like Kratos’s other offerings, it is “intended to be an affordable, highly modular conventional takeoff and landing jet-powered” aerial vehicle.

While details on the new UAVs are murky, Kratos asserted that the “OBSS solution incorporates innovative manufacturing techniques that enhance its ability to not only provide significant performance for sensor extension missions for manned jet aircraft but also will accommodate significant offensive weapons volume to also act as a weapons bay extension for manned aircraft.”

Furthermore, the OBSS is “a new addition to the Kratos family of low-cost Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACP) designed to employ weapons, sensors, and other effects that generate affordable, force multiplier combat power with a forward force posture.”

General Atomics’s Off-Boarding Sensing Station

Even less is known about General Atomics’s OBSS. However, the company has a very long track record building unmanned aerial vehicles and has been a prolific designer of UAVs over the last several decades.

General Atomics’s legendary Reaper and Predator drones made their combat debuts during America’s recent conflicts in the Middle East. More recently, General Atomics unveiled the new Predator C Avenger. Powered by a single jet engine buried in the platform’s fuselage and featuring a stealthily designed fuselage, General Atomics calls this Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS)  the next generation in remotely piloted aircraft.

General Atomics has also participated in the U.S. Air Force’s Skyborg program, an effort to develop low-cost unmanned aerial platforms capable of flying alongside manned aircraft. Flying in tandem, these expendable aircraft would fly far ahead into contested airspace, finding and assessing threats. In some cases, armed unmanned vehicles could also eliminate threats on their own.

Both General Atomics and Kratos will have to submit prototypes by next year. However, if they exercise the additional funding option, they will have until early 2024 to finalize designs.

Caleb Larson is a multimedia journalist and Defense Writer with the National Interest. He lives in Berlin and covers the intersection of conflict, security, and technology, focusing on American foreign policy, European security, and German society.

Image: Reuters

At COP26, leaders must find ways to allow much greater economic growth across large parts of the world.

Charlie Gao

Singapore, Asia

While it’s clear Singapore’s Air Force packs a significant air-to-air punch, its mission is not to just protect Singapore itself but its interests in the immediate region.

Here's What You Need to Remember: Overall, unlike their neighbors, Singapore has gone “all in” with Western tech. The common origins of their aircraft probably make resupply and maintenance easier. This trend looks to continue now that Singapore is looking into the F-35 as a replacement for their F-5Es. They also have the significant advantage of having AWACS aircraft, unlike their two closest neighbors.

Despite its small geographical size, Singapore fields one of the most advanced and well-equipped militaries in South East Asia. It spends more on its military than any of its neighbors. Being a tiny city-state, one of the strongest arms of the Singaporean military is the Republic of Singapore Air Force. But how does it stack up against its neighbors, from the small to the big? Does Western tech really provide the level of advantage it needs to defend itself?

The backbone of the RSAF is a fleet of F-15 and F-16 fighters. The RSAF fields forty F-15SG Eagles, forty F-16Ds, and twenty F-16Cs. These are augmented by around thirty F-5S Tiger II and some A-4 Skyhawks in storage. Singapore also fields an AWACS capability with five Israeli modified Gulfstream 550 jets.

Out of all those aircraft, Singapore’s strongest fighter is definitely the F-15SG, itself a variant of the F-15E. The most important advantage the F-15SG has is the APG-63(V)3 AESA radar, which one of the best aircraft mounted radars on any fighter in the region.

AESAs also have the capability to perform electronic warfare (EW) tasks: they can actively degrade the lock of an active radar guided missile while scanning at the same time due to their electronic nature. The RSAF F-16s are also rumored to be undergoing similar upgrades to receive AESAs of their own.

The F-15SG also has an IRST system, which gives it the capability to detect and lock onto aircraft with infrared missiles without even switching on the radar. The IRST bulb is positioned on a pod pylon under the left engine of the F-15SG and is directly integrated into the plane.

To make the actual kill, the F-15SG wields the advanced AIM-9X Block II air-to-air missile. This is integrated with the Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System helmet, which allows the seeker to track where the pilot is looking, allowing for the missile to lock onto targets off boresight.

While the Soviet Air Force pioneered this capability with the R-73 and Su-27/MiG-29 aircraft (including those fielded by its neighbors), the JHMCS and AIM-9X Block II take it to even further levels, with a wider seeker lock angle than what can be achieved with the Russian system.

For longer range targets, Singapore has access to advanced long-range active radar homing air-to-air missiles: the AIM-120C-7. It also has stocks of the medium-range AIM-120C-5. These can be fired from both the F-15 and F-16s Singapore has, although it’s likely the F-15 will be able to achieve a lock earlier on with its AESA radar.

While it’s clear Singapore’s Air Force packs a significant air-to-air punch, its mission is not to just protect Singapore itself but its interests in the immediate region. As a result, they have significant stocks of the AGM-154 JSOW, a long ranged American glide bomb that can fly up to 130km away. While these could be used to deliver an alpha strike against an opponent, Singapore is expected to use them more in an anti-shipping role.

One of Singapore’s greatest fighter threats might come from Indonesia, which bought the advanced Su-35S earlier this year. However, they are fewer in number than Singapore’s F-15SG fleet. Indonesia also fields many more different types of aircraft: the Indonesian Air Force has F-16s, original Su-27s, two different variants of the Su-30, and F-5E Tiger II s as well. Obviously, this results in greater maintenance and sustainment issues for Indonesia.

Another strong air force that could face Singapore is China’s PLAN aviation. China also has J-15 carrier fighters. These largely are Chinese-developed variants of the first-generation Su-27S Flankers China first received in the 1990s. While on paper they have the same capabilities as the F-15SG (ARH missiles, IRST, advanced radar), China’s Flankers are still considered to be underpowered due to their engines.

Malaysia also is a strong contender, fielding a weird mix of Western and Eastern planes like Indonesia. Unlike Indonesia, most of their Flankers are of older variants, and a good portion of their fighter fleet is relatively obsolete MiG-29s. They also do field the AIM-9X Block II like Singapore.

Overall, unlike their neighbors, Singapore has gone “all in” with Western tech. The common origins of their aircraft probably make resupply and maintenance easier. This trend looks to continue now that Singapore is looking into the F-35 as a replacement for their F-5Es. They also have the significant advantage of having AWACS aircraft, unlike their two closest neighbors.

Charlie Gao studied political and computer science at Grinnell College and is a frequent commentator on defense and national-security issues.

This article first appeared in August 2018 and is being reposted due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters