Diplomacy & Crisis News

Though much has changed in the years since the end of the Second World War, much of the thinking in America’s mainline foreign policy has remained the same. Many Americans look out into the world as if the United States was the lone nation capable of taking on the world’s most daunting challenges, and, as a consequence, many expect the U.S to address major problems independent of cooperation from other nations. The reality, however, is that times have changed- while the United States remains the world’s greatest power, the rise of China, India, and Brazil, and the consolidation of Europe has given rise to a slowly growing list of nations or blocs that are capable of playing a significant role in true global governance. 

Faced with the prospect of rising powers, including some potential rivals, the United States has two meaningful options. First, the U.S. could choose to face this new reality head on and work collaboratively with emerging nations. Or, second, The United States could ignore the development of these nations and potential partners, instead attempting to carry the same amount of global responsibility with relatively less capacity.

Despite important questions about China’s continued rise, the world is slowly returning to a bipolar, or even multipolar order. Put more directly, the gap in “power” (defined as economic, military and even soft power) between the United States is smaller today than it was at the end of the Second World War, or even at the end of the Cold War. This is not to say that today’s America is somehow weaker than the United States was in the 1950’s or 80’s- instead, it is meant to highlight the fact that other nations have grown more quickly between now and those historical moments.

In light of this, it is more important now than it has been at any time in recent memory for the United States to double down on its diplomatic efforts. India and Brazil have both seen astonishing growth since the 1980’s, and both nations have strong, if sometimes flawed, democracies. It is already important to have cooperation from these nations on global issues like climate change and halting the withdrawal of democracy globally. As these nations continue to develop both economically and politically, it will prove even more important for the United States to have a positive relationship with both countries. 

A similar thing should be said about America’s partnerships with the nations in Europe. The troubling situation along the Ukrainian border proves the value of NATO membership, and it comes at a vital moment for Europe following a changing of the guard in Germany and the recency of Brexit.The United States would be wise to resolidify its commitment to NATO and work to promote a politically unified, democratic Europe. Through close relations and thoughtful negotiations, European partners may continue to increase their contributions to NATO.

While these developments have presented new opportunities, they also present a new set of challenges. China has emerged as a global power with undeniable influence and a global vision that is at odds with the Liberal free-market tendencies of the United States. Russia, though certainly not a rising power, has interfered in American elections and continues to disrupt international norms. Other nations like Iran and North Korea, present threats to international stability in a more acute way. Non-state actors like ISIS present a new sort of threat entirely.

Perhaps it is possible that continued economic development in China creates a middle class that actively desires democracy, as some predicted in the early 2000’s. Maybe China’s economy will stall out, and the famed “Grand Bargain” between the CCP and the Chinese people will collapse. It is also entirely possible that China will continue its economic development in the face of the harsh civic and political repression suffered by many Chinese people. In any event, a strong web of partnerships and alliances for the US could serve to both entice China into better behavior or, at a minimum, deter the worst imaginings of China’s global ambitions. A similar list of potential outcomes could be suggested for each of the other problem areas mentioned above, and in every circumstance, the United States will be more effective having strong and consistent partners. 

I have been careful to focus on the upsides of what could take place if the United States walks face first into the emerging bipolar world, but the downsides of failing to do so can be summarized pretty simply. If the United States attempts to take on the full weight of international leadership without cooperation from a long list of committed partners, it will result in overextension, which could bring about the sort of decline that presents a real threat not only to America’s international interests, but to democracy more broadly.

This is why it is important for individual Americans to participate in elections, and remain informed about important issues in both domestic and foreign policy. The next few decades represent a turning point in so many important ways, as climate change, the retreat of democracy, and the rise of China, India, and Brazil all come to a head. Faced with so much uncertainty and so many opportunities, the United States would be wise to make as many friends as it can.

—
Peter Scaturro is the Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association

Will the AKP leader undermine Turkish democracy to stay in power?

La poursuite des raids américains sur le Vietnam du Nord gêne les gouvernants soviétiques. Il n'est plus question pour eux de prêcher les vertus de la coexistence pacifique à des alliés qui ont à se défendre contre une « agression ». Ils doivent tenir compte de la surenchère de Pékin : la manifestation (...) / Chine, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), URSS, Communisme, Guerre du Vietnam 1959-1975, Nord-Vietnam 1945-1976 - 1965/04

Sud-Vietnam : une collaboration orageuse L'évolution des rapports entre la France et le Sud-Vietnam a été exactement inverse de celle qu'ont subie les relations entre Paris et Hanoï. Et cela s'explique assez aisément, M. Ngo Dinh Diem et ses collaborateurs ayant vu du plus mauvais œil la tentative (...) / Cambodge, Laos, Colonialisme, Sud-Vietnam 1955-1975, Nord-Vietnam 1945-1976, Décolonisation, Indochine française - 1960/08

Dans le Grand Nord suédois, les relations se tendent entre les partisans de l'ouverture de nouvelles mines et les populations saames. Viscéralement attaché à la préservation de la nature, ce peuple autochtone aspire à l'autodétermination. Le cadre légal suédois n'offrait pas cette possibilité ; mais (...) / Écologie, Économie, Minorité nationale, Mouvement de contestation, Suède, Matières premières, Environnement, Peuples autochtones - 2016/12

Loin de se résumer à de simples divertissements, beaucoup de films d'arts martiaux chinois parlent avant tout de justice et de dignité. Celle d'un individu, d'une classe ou d'un peuple opprimé qui relève la tête, se frotte le nez et fiche une raclée méritée à un tyran mieux armé. De quoi faire rêver (...) / Chine, Audiovisuel, Cinéma, Culture, Entreprise, Industrie culturelle, Justice, Mouvement de contestation, Personnalités, Travail, Violence, Hongkong, Mouvement de libération - 2016/12

Marginalisés pour s'être compromis avec le Pakistan lors de la guerre de libération en 1971, les islamistes bangladais ont progressivement retrouvé leur influence. Certains sont passés à l'action violente. Les assassinats de personnalités athées et progressistes, puis l'attentat commis à Dacca cet été, (...) / Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Conflit, Islam, Religion, Terrorisme, Violence, Fondamentalisme - 2016/12

/ Proche-Orient, Syrie, Armée, Conflit, Guérilla, Ville, Violence - Proche-Orient / Proche-Orient, Syrie, Armée, Conflit, Guérilla, Ville, Violence - Proche-Orient

Cette affiche prend le parti de la lisibilité plutôt que de l'exhaustivité. Y figurent des médias d'information qui « font l'opinion » et qui dépendent d'intérêts industriels ou financiers, de groupes de presse ou de l'État : publications généralistes nationales, quotidiens régionaux, audiovisuel national (...) / France, Audiovisuel, Capitalisme, Communication, Entreprise, Information, Internet, Médias, Multinationales, Presse, Technologies de l'information - Médias

Il n'est pas offert à toutes de pouvoir décider du nombre d'enfants qu'elles mettent au monde et d'accoucher sans risques. Bon indicateur de la surmédicalisation ou du défaut de soins, la pratique de la césarienne, très rare au Tchad, concerne près d'un accouchement sur deux au Brésil. En France, la (...) / Démographie, Femmes, Inégalités, Santé, Médecine, Sexualité, Droits des femmes, Monde - Femmes

Dans plusieurs pays d'Europe centrale et orientale, la crise démographique et le pourrissement des questions sociales nourrissent le terreau des négationnistes. De façon de plus en plus ouverte, les nationalismes bâtis sur une réécriture de l'histoire font office de programmes politiques. De Stepan (...) / Balkans, Europe de l'Est, Ukraine, Histoire, Nationalisme, Personnalités, Religion, Serbie, Bosnie-Herzégovine, Croatie, Europe centrale, Yougoslavie 1946-1992 - 2016/12

Cette situation de guerre et de chaos qui perdure depuis maintenant vingt ans en Afghanistan a fini par s'étendre au-delà des frontières poreuses du pays et par polariser la région tout entière : le Pakistan et l'Arabie saoudite appuient les talibans, tandis que l'Iran, la Russie, l'Inde et quatre (...) / Afghanistan, Asie centrale, Pakistan, Islam, Conflit afghan - 1999/11

Voici qu'approche le jour de l'infâmie. Il faut donc prendre au sérieux l'homme que fut Pinochet, le tyran des premiers temps, auteur du 11 septembre 1973. Le premier Pinochet s'appelait Guillaume. Arrivé au Chili, il s'octroya la particule : « Guillermo de Pinochet, baptisé à Saint-Malo, France ». (...) / Chili - 1986/08

À l'heure où le bien-fondé de la seule incarcération est de plus en plus discuté, le premier ministre français Manuel Valls a annoncé la construction de dix nouvelles prisons. D'autres solutions ont pourtant montré leur intérêt, en particulier celles impliquant les victimes. Innovation majeure de la loi (...) / France, Criminalité, Justice, Prison, Associations, Justice pénale - 2016/12

Tous les sondages donnaient le « oui » gagnant avec une marge confortable. Le 2 octobre, les Colombiens ont pourtant rejeté l'accord de paix entre le gouvernement et FARC, qui orchestrait la fin d'un conflit vieux de plus d'un demi-siècle. Le pays préférerait-il la guerre à la paix ? / Colombie, (...) / Colombie, Agriculture, Armée, Conflit, Élections, Extrême droite, Guérilla, Inégalités, Justice, Mutation, Politique, Presse, Violence, Diplomatie, Répression, Guerre civile, Néolibéralisme, Accord de paix - 2016/11

Après avoir longtemps hésité, Washington a finalement donné son feu vert à une reprise de la grande ville du Nord par l'armée irakienne et ses alliés. / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Irak, Proche-Orient, Armée, Conflit, Géopolitique, Kurdes, Terrorisme, Stratégie militaire - (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Irak, Proche-Orient, Armée, Conflit, Géopolitique, Kurdes, Terrorisme, Stratégie militaire - 2016/11

La politique européenne traverse une période de polarisations. Ce processus n'est pas né par hasard. Une série de bouleversements économiques et sociaux ont bousculé les fidélités partisanes, renversé les consensus d'antan et conduit à des glissements tectoniques dont nul ne saurait prédire (...) / Allemagne, Espagne, Europe, Grèce, Royaume-Uni, Élections, Idéologie, Parti politique, Politique, Social-démocratie - 2016/11

Le sport est de plus en plus dépossédé de ses valeurs pour hypnotiser les supporters et servir des intérêts mercantiles ou politiques. La Coupe du monde de rugby, du 7 septembre au 20 octobre, n'y échappera pas davantage que le dernier Tour de France cycliste. Le quotidien sportif « L'Equipe », (...) / France, Information, Médias, Presse, Sport - 2007/09

 

There are a few tricks to surviving an epidemic of Hyper-Inflation that some have learned in those countries that have suffered from it over the last few decades. Unfortunately, much of it involved being so wealthy that you are able to shift your assets overseas using professional services that are only available to few people, and there being a asset or country where your investments would be safe from the inflationary pressures. The rest of us do not have this kind of access, and are dependent on effective policies to sustain our affordability of food, shelter and heat.

Three policy approaches that are likely to transform the inflationary situation into a harsh reality are already being applied. As you read this, in whatever country you currently reside, you are likely noticing it daily.

When a government begins focusing on a new crisis post Covid, even when Covid is still an effective burden on most countries, there is likely the motivation to change from a formally stable economic and political situation to one that benefits a few individuals. While these late 2021 crises are a surprise to many in the community, they always seem to be characterised by a sensational and immediate problem often not realised during Covid or to any great degree before Covid. They almost always tend to try and bypass any regulatory measures and oversight in the rapid application of these virtual emergency policies. While some of these quick applications may benefit the community, any policy that seeks to work around established policies and laws that were formed over time in a democratic and measured process will almost always fail to a degree, and likely will benefit few in a society.

An appropriate Government measure during a time of uncontrolled and severe inflation is to try and reduce the costs of living for average people. Policies by law should not add pressure to families and individuals that may drive them further into poverty, as it will likely keep them there for many years to follow. They effectively have no consideration for the basic needs of their citizens. Any country that has planned tax increases for any reason at this time of worldwide inflation are likely not going to recovery from it quickly and will enshrine a lost generation. A balanced budget is always important, and a measured response to economic pressures is the principal job of community leaders. If a government doesn’t care about you basic costs of living, they don’t care about your family, your shelter, and in cold countries, your heat in winter. Those who offer policies such as these should not be in charge of taking care of anyone. A policy producing added economic pressures on top of inflation is more often than not a corruption tax.

In the past, most countries that suffered from endemic inflation also suffered from systemic corruption. While inflation is not a direct cause of corruption, the measures to control the regulatory and legal structures of a society can be manipulated during these economic struggles to permanently harm a democratic and fair political, economic and legal system. Everyone worldwide is either in an early recovery phase of Covid or are presently dealing with great challenges due to Covid, and are at a weak point in their personal lives. If a government seeks to change society in any major way while its population is distracted and approaching an impoverished state, they are more often than not doing it for their own political and economic benefit. There should be a moratorium on drastic measures to change a society until we have had a few years to return to normalcy.

The post-Covid era is not much different than other eras where we have struggled, and we strived and reconstructed societies back to stability. There are no individuals who will miraculously better a society when it has had hundreds of years of successful and established democracy and diminished poverty by applying a grand policy at the weakest point held by a society. A country spending more in the last two years, than it has in the last century and through two World Wars is not a country that appreciates it own evolution of freedom and democratic stability. Keep your focus on your leaders, and do not allow them to turn your community into their new projects in the coming years.

Avec près de cinq cents morts dénombrés une semaine après son passage en octobre, l'ouragan Matthew a causé davantage de dégâts en Haïti que dans les autres régions traversées. Le pays le plus pauvre des Caraïbes serait-il condamné à rechuter sans fin en dépit de l'aide reçue ? / Corée du Sud, États-Unis, (...) / Corée du Sud, États-Unis, Haïti, Coopération internationale, Développement, Économie, Industrie, Multinationales, ONG, Pauvreté, Politique, Relations internationales, Santé, Syndicalisme, Travail, République dominicaine, Chômage, Néolibéralisme - 2016/11