Fruit d’un long travail de compléments, de mises en forme et d’adaptations, EchoRadar publie sur Amazon son premier dossier consacré aux débuts de la première guerre mondiale durant l’été 1914. Moyennant la somme raisonnable de 3 euros, il est dorénavant possible à tout possesseur d’une tablette Android/iPad ou d’une liseuse Kindle de compléter sa collection d’ouvrages.
Pour acheter l’ebook Détails ci-dessous
En effet, à l’occasion du centenaire de la Première guerre mondiale, EchoRadar a participé à la commémoration de cet événement en proposant le dossier intitulé « Été 1914 : un autre monde ? ». L’idée a ensuite germé d’en proposer une version regroupant l’ensemble des contributions, retravaillées et enrichies dans la mesure du possible. Par ailleurs, et ce fut l’objet récent de l’appel à nous soutenir financièrement (Nous faire un don), il nous a semblé nécessaire de le proposer via une plateforme dédiée. Pour votre parfaite information, sachez qu’élaborer un livre électronique réclame du temps et une connaissance technique liée aux différents formats de fichiers assurant la plus grande portabilité quel que soit le support de lecture. Et que nous regrettons l’absence d’une plateforme équivalente à Amazon en termes d’ergonomie et de puissance en Europe sinon en France.
Synopsis
Si l’on en croit les indices de développement, l’humanité n’aurait jamais été aussi riche en 1914 que dans les périodes précédentes. Toutefois, chacun sait que la guerre reste possible mais chacun l’espère courte, limitée et victorieuse. La paix européenne est celle du monde ! Malheureusement, il s’agira d’une guerre qui traumatisera l’Europe et marquera le début de son déclin relatif.
Ce monde de 1914 – décrit succinctement par cet état des lieux non exhaustif – parait à la fois si lointain et si proche de notre actualité. Il est naturellement apparu comme un sujet d’intérêt pour les blogueurs d’EchoRadar. Cet ebook regroupe les billets couvrant des aspects plus ou moins connus de cette époque dans les domaines des télécommunications et du chiffre, de la guerre navale, de la préparation militaire de certains pays, en ouvrant sur la participation à la Grande guerre. Il ne constitue pas les éléments d’un dossier exhaustif mais bien quelques briques dans l’immense « mur de la mémoire » qui se construit à l’été 2014, en France et dans le monde.
Plan
Les blogs EchoЯadar : Qui sont-ils ? Que font-ils ?
Members of parliament have endorsed all sixteen candidates put forward by Afghanistan’s national unity government. This means that, six months into its term, the country has an almost complete cabinet – only the defence minister is still missing. This is the MPs’ second such vote. The first, on 28 January 2015, saw only a third of the candidates getting through. Kate Clark, Ehsan Qaane and Qayyum Suroush ask why there has been a change of heart from the parliament and hear charges of vote-buying and MPs’ fears that, if they did not endorse the sixteen, they would be castigated by a public impatient for the government to get on with governing.
Under the constitution, every minister needs the approval of parliament to take up his or her post. When the government put through its first choice of suggested ministers, MPs only endorsed a third of them. One third had already fallen by the wayside because they dual nationals, were wanted for criminal prosecution or had no higher education and never made it to the vote. One of those who had a second nationality, Sayed Mansur Naderi, re-appeared on the current list, although for a different ministry. A further third of the candidates in January were rejected. AAN wrote at the time that the list was rather weak, with few big-hitters and many candidates who had little experience or were not obvious fits for their proposed ministries. Today’s list had similar characteristics: half have no experience working in government and many lack experience in the subject area of their ministry. For example, Afghanistan now has a medical doctor at Justice, a women’s rights activist lawyer at Counter Narcotics and a businessman at Education. Other ministers do look better suited, eg a hydraulics engineer at Water and Energy. Several of the appointments also look to be political pay back for support during the election.
It is not obvious why the parliament voted in all candidates today when it rejected many on a similar list in January. In general, MPs endorsement does not necessarily mean they like what is on offer, as voting in favour or against often has as much to do with mood and timing and what messages MPs want to send the executive and the country. It might just be that the parliamentarians, like the general public, are tired of not having a government and also feared being lambasted if they were seen as having stood in the way of a cabinet finally being formed. However, there were also allegations that money had changed hands to ‘persuade’ MPs to endorse candidates. Hasht-e Subh, for example, reported that MPs were asking for iPhones and money and that government officials were complaining that, compared to the Karzai era, bribes had gone up “terribly.”
In the January vote, MPs rejected all the Hazara, Uzbek (the third and fourth largest ethnic groups respectively) and women candidates. Today’s sweeping endorsement of all sixteen candidates does mean that Afghanistan has a fairer-looking cabinet. Of the 25 ministers, there are four women (still not enough, many activists would say, but at least the number President Ghani had promised) and, as to ethnicity, nine Pashtuns, seven Tajiks, three Hazaras, two Uzbeks, one each from Ismailis, Shia Sayeds and Turkmen and one minister who is reported by different sources as either Tajik, Uzbek or Turkmen.
This is still not quite a full cabinet. The all-important post of defence minister remains to be filled. It was the reported cause of a major rift between Doctors Ghani and Abdullah earlier in the month. Abdullah was reportedly incensed by what he said were unilateral announcements by Ghani for Afzal Ludin as defence minister (1) and Shukria Barakzai as head of the Election Reform Commission. There are also some other significant gaps: the Attorney General, Head of the Supreme Court, Head of the Central Bank and most of the country’s governors.
As AAN and others have reported, there is growing discontent in the country with the lack of governing going on, particularly given the ailing economy and disturbing attacks by insurgents – 31 civilians kidnapped in Zabul in late February and still not freed, soldiers captured and beheaded in Badakhshan on 10 April 2015 and today, a major attack in Jalalabad which left more than thirty dead and more than one hundred injured and which overshadowed parliament’s vote. Addressing the nation live on television from Badakhshan today, President Ghani said:
On one hand, we are in a very sad situation, but from another a very happy one. What happened in Badakhshan and Nangarhar is our sad situation, but the approval of our 16 ministerial candidates by the parliament is the happy one. We have had problems in the economic sector and were not able to implement policies due to the lack of ministers.
The real test of the new cabinet is whether, now that the government’s key team is largely in place, it can finally start to govern better.
How the vote went
239 MPs voted (out of 246). To be confirmed, candidate needed a simple majority of 120 votes. The votes for the sixteen (read their full biographies here) went as follows:
(AA) and (AG) refers to whether it is believed Abdullah Abdullah or Ashraf Ghani put forward the candidate
1. Abdul Bari Jahani, Culture and Information (AG): 120 votes in favour (66 rejected, 35 blank, 6 invalid)
One of the leading Pashtun poets of modern times, a Kandahari who, for many years, worked in broadcasting with Voice of America in the United States. (2)
2. Assadullah Zamir, Agriculture (AG): 192 votes in favour (28 rejected, 15 blank, 4 invalid)
An ethnic Tajik in his late thirties, born in Kabul, one of the co-founders of Fourteen Hundred / 1400, a group of young(ish) Afghans interested in influencing policies; has many years of experience working in various ministries (rural development, education, mines and agriculture).
3. Muhammad Gulab Mangal, Border and Tribal Affairs (AG): 188 votes in favour (28 rejected, 13 blank, 8 invalid)
A Paktiawal and member of the communist People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan before it seized power in the Saur Coup of 1978, who later joined the mujahedin; a former governor of Paktika, Laghman and Helmand.
4. Engineer Mahmud Balegh, Public Works (AG): 168 votes in favour (38 rejected, 23 blank, 8 invalid)
An ethnic Hazara from Daikundi and one of the youngest ministers; an engineer by education, a former editor of Eqtedar-e Melli newspaper (published by the Shia political party Hezb-e Eqtedar-e Melli, which split off the mujahedin party Harakat-e Islami under the late Kabul MP Mustafa Kazimi after the Taleban regime came down) and now a businessman, part owner of one of the largest construction companies in the country.
5. Abdul Satar Murad, Economy (AA): 152 votes in favour (51 rejected, 29 blank, 6 invalid)
A Tajik from Parwan province in his late 50s, he was deputy head of Abdullah’s electoral campaign team and chairman of the political committee of Jamiat-e Islami; taught English at a mujahedin military academy in the 1980s, served in the Rabbani government and in various Islamic State embassies and, post-2001, set up a construction company and was governor of Kapisa.
6. Dr Muhammadullah Batash, Transport and Aviation (AG): 176 votes in favour (32 rejected, 25 blank, 6 invalid)
An Uzbek in his mid-50s from Kunduz with a PhD from Moscow University who is a Jombesh party activist; has served as deputy and acting minister of transport, as governor of Faryab and as a government advisor.
7. Sayed Sadat Mansur Naderi, Urban Development (AG): 202 votes in favour (18 rejected, 10 blank, 4 invalid)
Son of Sayed Mansur Naderi (the Ismaili religious leader and former militia commander who was with the PDPA government until 1992 and then was one of the warring parties in the civil war, allied with the ‘Northern Alliance’) who is chair of a group of companies active in nearly all of Afghanistan’s main economic sectors (including fuel import and storage, construction, precious metals and gems, security, property dealing, advertising, supermarkets and insurance).
8. Dr Abdul Basir Anwar, Justice (AA): 138 votes in favour (65 rejected, 30 blank, 5 invalid)
An ethnic Tajik from Parwan and leading member of Hezb-e Islami; holder of a medical degree, he was deputy minister of health during the Rabbani government and advisor on social affairs to former President Karzai.
9. Abdul Razaq Wahidi, Telecommunication (AA): 152 votes in favour (53 rejected, 28 blank, 5 invalid)
A Hazara from Kabul in his late 30s who grew up in Iran and returned in 2002 to teach mathematics at Kabul University, after which he served on the Kankur Committee of the Higher Education Ministry and as General Administrative Director and Deputy Minister for Administration at the Ministry of Finance.
10. Dilbar Nazari, Women’s Affairs (AA): 131 votes in favour (70 rejected, 28 blank, 9 invalid)
An Uzbek from Balkh in her 50s with a background in education and NGOs (including Oxfam, German Agro-Action and UNICEF); a former MP.
11. Salamat Azimi, Counter Narcotics (AG): 155 votes in favour (60 rejected, 23 blank, no invalid)
A lawyer and women’s rights advocate from Andkhoi in Faryab (sources put her variously as Tajik, Uzbek and Turkman) who has served as professor, head of the criminal law department and deputy director of Balkh University, head of the section for children’s rights at the Afghan Independent Human Rights Commission in Mazar-e-Sharif and a delegate at several loya jirgas.
12. Dr Farida Momand, Higher Education (AG): 184 votes in favour (31 rejected, 18 blank, 5 invalid)
A Pashtun from Nangarhar, a doctor, former professor at Kabul Medical University and dean of the pediatric department.
13. Dr Nasrin Oryakhel, Labour and Social Affairs (AG): 169 votes in favour (62 rejected, 21 blank, 5 invalid)
A Pashtun medical doctor from Paghman and leading member of President Ghani’s election campaign who has been the director of both Rabia Balkhi and Malalai hospitals in Kabul.
14. Ali Ahmad Osmani, Water and Energy (AA): 168 votes in favour (36 rejected, 29 blank, 5 invalid)
An ethnic Tajik in his early 40s, a hydraulic engineer by education and work experience (with the World Food Programme and in private business).
15. Humayun Rasa, Trade and Industries (AA): 170 votes in favour (39 rejected, 24 blank, 4 invalid)
An ethnic Hazara (with a Bayat mother) from the Qarabagh district of Ghazni who served as Deputy Minister for Literacy with the Ministry of Education and Deputy Head of Logistics in the National Directorate of Security.
16. Assadullah Hanif Balkhi, Education (AA): 161 votes in favour (27 rejected, 25 blank, 24 invalid)
An ethnic Tajik in his fifties from Balkh and member of Jamiat-e Islami (he was particularly close to the late Marshal Fahim); schooled at the Abu Hanifa madrassa and Sharia Faculty of Kabul University, he reportedly also studied in Saudi Arabia; a former ambassador to Kuwait and owner of a construction company.
(1) Afzal Ludin was commander of the presidential guard under Najibullah. This would have given the second ‘power ministry’ to a former PDPA regime representative, after Ulumi as interior minister.
(2) The one candidate to scrape through, Abdul Bari Jahani at Culture, was only given permission to present himself to the house this morning and accepted onto the voting list at the last minute.
A special commission had been in charge of reviewing the required documents of the candidates including university degrees, citizenship documents and documents showing they had committed no crimes. There were suspicions over the documents – citizenship or education – of eight nominees (Zamir, Baligh, Murad, Naderi, Osmani, Rasa, Balkhi and Batash), but in the end, only Bari Jahani was, initially, not allowed to present himself to parliament because of an alleged second (American) citizenship.
He should have appeared at the house on Wednesday 15 April 2015, but instead on that day, a letter was read to the house issued by the United States embassy in Kabul and sent via the Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Parliamentary Affairs. This, however, was deemed insufficient to prove that Bari had started cancelling his second citizenship. Some of the Pashtun Kandahari MPs, such as Lalai Hamid Zai and Abdul Rahim Ayubi, shouted in the session, saying some MPs were not allowing a Kandahari to be a minister. Lalai asked for Jahani to be given the vote despite his dual citizenship. Hafiz Mansur was the only MP who argued against giving one more chance to Jahani, saying the special commission had given enough time to the candidates and he should be out of the list. Finally, the speaker asked the commission to review the US embassy letter, ask the US embassy for clarification and make a decision on Jahani’s case. The commission then allowed Jahani to make his presentation before the vote today and to be included in the vote.
Le SNLE Le Triomphant vient de retrouver la base navale de l’Île-Longue qu’il avait quittée pour le bassin numéro huit de Brest pour y subir une Indisponibilité Périodique pour Entretien et Réparation (IPER/Adaptation). Pendant vingt mois, il a subi une opération de grande ampleur visant à le mettre au même niveau que SNLE Le Terrible dernier sous-marin de ce type entré en service au sein de la FOST.
Le Sous-marin Nucléaire Lanceur d’Engins (SNLE) Le Triomphant a débuté sa refonte en août 2013 à Brest. Le bâtiment a bénéficié d’un chantier colossal lui permettant de rénover ses différents équipements, dont le système de combat et les sonars, ainsi que d’une reconstruction de la tranche missiles. L’intégration du missile balistique M51 a été l’une des parties les plus délicates de la refonte, le nouveau missile ayant des dimensions et une masse supérieure à celle de son aîné. Remis à flot le vendredi 20 mars 2015 après vingt mois de travaux Le Triomphant a été remorqué vers sa base sous-marine en presqu’île de Crozon. De retour à l’Île-Longue il lui reste encore dix mois de mise au point et d’opérations diverses de redémarrage. C’est aussi à l’Île-Longue que le cœur nucléaire et tous les éléments de propulsion seront réinstallés et remis en service. Il devrait réintégrer au sein de la Force Océanique Stratégique (FOST), la boucle opérationnelle l’hiver prochain.
Le Triomphant est le second SNLE à avoir subi une telle opération, le premier ayant été Le Vigilant. Le Téméraire subira le même sort à partir du printemps 2016.
Réalisés par le site DCNS de Cherbourg, les SNLE du type Le Triomphant sont les plus gros sous-marins réalisés jusqu’ici en France. Ils mesurent 138 mètres de long et présentent un déplacement de plus de 14 000 tonnes en plongée. Armés alternativement par deux équipages de 110 marins, ces bâtiments peuvent mettre en œuvre seize missiles balistiques, la portée maximale du M51 étant estimée à 9 000 kilomètres. Chaque missile peut emporter jusqu’à six têtes nucléaires TN75 d’une puissance de 110 kilotonnes chacune. En dehors de cette force de frappe stratégique, les SNLE français disposent également, pour leur autodéfense, de quatre tubes permettant de lancer des torpilles lourdes F-21 et des missiles antinavire Exocet SM39.
Szerbia kormánygépek tekintetében az egykori jugoszláv tagköztársaság között a legszerényebb.
A boszniai Szerb Köztársaság állami vezetői egy Cessna 525-sel utaznak, melynek értéke kb. 5 millió dollár és kategóriájában a legmodernebb VIP repülőgépek közé tartozik.
Cessna 525 (illusztráció)
A horvát állami vezetők egy luxus kategóriájú Challenger CL 612 típusú repülőgépet vehetnek igénybe. A repülőgép ára 18 millió dollár volt.
Challenger (illusztráció)
Macedónia kormánygépe 2004. február 26-án Bosznia-Hercegovina területén lezuhant, a szerencsétlenségben életét vesztette Boris Trajkovski államfő is. A kormány egy évvel később az Amerikai Egyesült Államokból beszerzett egy Learjet 60 típusú gépet 11 millió dollárért.
Learjet 60 (illusztráció)
Mindezekhez képes a szerb állami vezetők részére rendelkezésre álló repülőgépek valóban nagyon szerénynek mondhatók. A kormánygéppark két repülőgépből áll: egy 1991-es gyártású Learjet 31a és egy 1981-es Falcon 50 típusúból.
Learjet 31a
Szerb Falcon 50
Az Air Serbia charter cége, az Aviolet közzétette hogy öt ország 19 célállomására hirdeti meg járatait: Törökországba, Görögországba, Olaszországba, Spanyolországba és Egyiptomba, legnagyobb számban június 15-szeptember 15 között.
Az Aviolet a járatokat három felújított és a cég új arculatának megfelelően átalakított 144 személyesre beszékezett Boeing 737-300-as típussal teljesíti.
2014-ben az Aviolet 520 járaton 90 ezer utast szállított a népszerű üdülőhelyekre.
Dane Kondics, az Air Serbia vezérigazgatója kijelentette:
„Az Aviolet az elmúlt évben indult és bebizonyította létjogosultságát. Idén még sikeresebb nyári szezonra számítunk, arra, hogy a társaság még több utast vonz minőségi szolgáltatásaival, olyan hozzáadott értékekkel, amik ritkák a charter járatokon.”
Az Avioletről bővebben itt olvashat.
Pr. Julian Fernandez
Membres du Conseil d'orientation Pr. Gilles Andreani
Pr. Julian Fernandez
Pr. Olivier Forcade
Pr. Tristan Lecoq, Secrétaire général du Conseil d'orientation
Pr. Serge Sur, Président du Conseil d'orientation
Aurélien Barbé
Yann Bedzigui
Célia Belin
Elizabeth Carey
Pr. Sarah Cassella
Baptiste Chatré
Paul Dahan
Stéphane Delory
Sophie Enos
Julien Genevois
Pr. Nicolas Haupais, Université d'Orléans
Floriane Leguay
Alexandra Novosseloff
Xavier Pacreau
Pr. Jean-Paul Pancracio, Université de Poitiers
Leah Pisar
Mohammed Bahou
Chloé Berger
Emmanuel Bourdoncle
Geoffroy Cailloux
Chloé de Perry-Sibailly
Ali Degmo
Grégoire Gayard
Béatrice Hainaut
Pablo Horacio David Hernandez
Barbara Hild
Aurore Lasserre
Perrine Le Meur
Somda Mangloire
Mathilde Masse
Tawa Netton Prince
Ali Rached
Keyvan Piram
Hewane Serequeberhan
Manon-Nour Tannous
Teljesítette első útját Németország által elsőként, még tavaly év végén átvett Airbus Military A400M Atlas teherszállító repülőgépe. A 54+01 lajstromú példány repült a wunstorfi bázisról a szenegáli Dakar repülőterére, rakterében egy mobil víztisztító berendezést szállítva.
Egyre nagyobb hangsúly helyeződik glóbuszunk északi részére. Ennek köszönhetően az orosz Pantsir Sz-1 (SA-22 Greyhound) önjáró rövid hatótávolságú légvédelmi komplexum is továbbfejlesztésen fog átesni. A sarki régióban is megkövetelt mozgékonyság érdekében egy a helyi terepviszonyokkal jobban megbirkózni képes lánctalpas alváz kerülhet a jól ismert rendszer alá. Korábban az Egyesült Arab Emírségekből várt megrendelés miatt már egy GMZ-352M1E alvázra szerelt verzió is létrehozásra került. Továbbá a zord klimatikus viszonyokkal szemben is megpróbálják ellenállóbbá tenni az új változatot.
Jelentősen lecsökken a Svájc által hadrendben tartható Northrop F-5E Tiger vadászgépek mennyisége. A típus szerkezetének átvizsgálása során 10-nél nem javítható repedést találtak, így ezeket kénytelenek lesznek kivonni. Másik hat gép javíthatónak lett ítélve, ezek 2016 első negyedévének végéig visszatérhetnek a szolgálatba. Így összesen 20 együléses maradhat továbbra is az ország légierejének kötelékében az eddig meglévő 30-ból. A kétüléses példányoknál nem találtak repedéseket.
A svéd légierő számára gyártandó első 60 Saab JAS-39E Gripen vadászbombázó mindegyikén megtalálható lesz a Selex Skyward-G infravörös szenzor a héten aláírt megállapodásnak köszönhetően. A légi és földi célpontok azonosítására képes Skyward-G a szélvédő előtt nyert elhelyezést a középvonaltól kissé jobbra eltolva a továbbfejlesztett Gripen változaton.
Olaszország megrendelte a 9. és a 10. FREMM-osztályú fregattját is. A csökkenő költségvetési vetési lehetőségek ellenére is találtak Rómában 764 millió eurót a két, eddig opcióként szereplő egység beszerzésére.
Litvániában viszont a szárazföldi haderő fog új harceszközöket kapni, hiszen 12 Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PZH 2000) 155 mm-es önjáró tarack beszerzését határozták el a balti országban. A Németországtól beszerzésre kerülő páncélos technika közeljövőben még gyarapodhat is, hiszen Vilnius Berlintől ARTEC Boxer 8x8-as gyalogsági harcjárművek megvásárlási lehetőségét is várja. Jelenleg annyi tűnik biztosnak, hogy a PZH 2000-ek eladása elől nem zárkózott el a német fél, a konkrét tárgyalások májusban veszik majd kezdetüket.
Dél-Afrikában az egyre korosabb Lockheed C-130BZ Hercules szállítógépek lecserélése került újra reflektorfénybe. A SAAF 1963-ban szerzett be hét Lockheed C-130B Hercules-t, ezek közül hat még jelenleg is szolgálatban van. Ezek mellé 1996-ban érkezett meg három ex-US Navy C-130F, valamint két év múlva további két ex-US Air Force C-130B változat. Az F variánsok hamar kivonásra kerültek, de a kilenc B 1996 és 2009 között egy nagyjavításon és modernizáláson esett át, így korszerű képernyős pilótafülkét is kaptak. Ezek a gépek már a C-130BZ jelölést viselik. Már közel egy éve aktívan kampányol az országban a Lockheed Martin a jelenleg legkorszerűbb J Super Hercules eladása ügyében, eddig vajmi kevés sikerrel. Most egy akciósnak is tekinthető árral próbálják meg a számukra kedvező döntést kicsikarni a döntéshozókból. A hírek szerint gépenkénti 60 millió dollár, vagy még ez alatti ár körüli összeggel szeretnék a megrendelést elérni.
Ausztráliában igen sikeresen zajlanak a BAE Systems Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) lézeres félaktív irányítású rakétáival végzett tesztlövészetek. A Tiger harci helikopterek fegyverzetébe szánt eszközzel a földről hét példányt indítottak 100%-os találati eredményt produkálva. A légi próbák során 10 rakétát használtak fel, ezeket 1500 - 4500 méteres távolságokból, illetve 60 és 460 méteres repülési magasságból indították el, maximum 295 km/h-s sebesség mellett. Ezek során is hibátlannak bizonyult az APKWS. A hadsereg mellett a haditengerészet is szeretné hadrendbe állítani az APKWS-t, ott a Sikorsky MH-60R helikopterekről alkalmaznák.
NETARZENÁL GALÉRIA
Eurocopter EC-725AP Cougar Mk2+.
McDonnell Douglas F-4G Phantom II.
English Electric Lightning F.6.
A mai Oroszországnak mára több nemzetközileg nem elismert határszakasza van. Az egyik a Krím, a másik már 1945 óta okoz gondokat.
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On Friday, April 17, IPI hosted the 2015 edition of the New York Seminar on the topic of “The Future Role of Peacekeeping Operations.” This year’s edition, co-sponsored by the Permanent Missions of Austria and Italy to the United Nations, gathered experts, diplomats, and representatives from international organizations and civil society for an in-depth and forward-looking discussion of the role that peacekeeping operations can play in maintaining international peace and security. The seminar was held under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution, with the exception of the keynote address delivered by Izumi Nakamitsu, assistant administrator and director of the Crisis Response Unit of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
In her opening remarks, Ms. Nakamitsu, who between 2008 and 2014 held various posts at the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, stressed the importance of devising new conflict analysis tools, especially given the changing nature of conflicts and the emergence of new threats. Achieving political solutions to crises has become more difficult, Ms. Nakamitsu said, which means that prevention should be at the forefront of international peacekeeping efforts.
The discussion also highlighted the challenges posed by the emergence and growth of extremist groups. These non-state actors are now seizing and controlling territory, purporting to provide public services, and using social media tools to spread their violent ideologies. Their actions often fuel sectarian divisions, which in turn complicate the settlement of crises.
According to the panelists, Yemen exemplifies this new trend. There, all the elements of this new conflict environment converge, including a weak state apparatus, widespread poverty, regional involvement, and competition over scarce natural resources.
The Department of Peacekeeping Operations’ efforts to keep up with the evolving situation were recognized in missions such as the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Intelligence and Fusion Cell in Mali, as well as the first-ever UN emergency health mission (UN Mission for Ebola Emergency Response—UNMEER) and the Joint Mission of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the UN (OPCW-UN) in Syria.
New and enhanced partnerships stand out as the norm in peacekeeping today. The UN is actively building on the cooperative advantage of regional partners such as the African Union and the European Union. But there are inherent risks and challenges in these partnerships. For example, when the region is leading the mediation process alongside a UN peacekeeping mission or vice versa, how can the organizations work together and use one process to leverage progress in the other?
The discussion also addressed the topic of women’s involvement in peace processes. Women’s absence from such processes, one of the panelists emphasized, is directly linked to the recurrence of violent conflict. Fifteen years after the adoption of Security Council Resolution 1325 on women, peace and security, there is still a lot of work to be done—including by peacekeeping missions—when it comes to ensuring that women are included in peace negotiations and post-conflict reconstruction efforts. By actively including women, peace efforts can become broader and extend to all sectors of society, making relapse into violence less likely.
Finally, the seminar also discussed how UN mediation and conflict prevention capabilities can be strengthened in order to offer viable alternatives to military responses to crises.
2015 promises to be a year of change. With elections fast approaching in Finland, the United Kingdom, Portugal, Spain, Poland and Ireland voters seem to want to reject the status quo. While everyone is talking about the Greek debt negotiations and the rise of Podemos in Spain, in the North of Europe, an important election has skipped many people’s radar.
Finland, Europe’s tough fiscal hawk, is likely to face a change of government after Sunday’s election. The change is likely to come about due to a slowing Finnish economy and what Prime Minister Alexander Stubb called a “lost decade” with recession entering into its third consecutive year, unemployment growing and competitiveness declining. Thus similar to other struggling economies in Europe, Finland is experiencing economic hardships which in the eyes of nearly all parties can only be resolved through harsh labour market reforms and fiscal austerity. In contrast, however, to the trend in the South where such policies led to public discontent and a steep increase in popular support for anti-EU parties, Finland is experiencing a revival of the established parties, while the Finnish anti-EU party, the Finns, however, is falling behind their landslide successes from the previous election in 2011.
Will they vote for anti-establishment?
Watch out – The Finns are coming…
Despite the decline in popularity of his anti-establishment party, Timo Soini, the Finn´s leader, might well end up on top as the winner of the Finnish election-dilemma as part of a coalition in a government led by the Central Party. To be more specific, in the event of an “equal” split of votes between the four largest parties (all four are polled to receive around 15%-25% of the votes), a coalition of three will need to be formed. While, the current governing parties have already turned down the idea of working together again, that would leave the Finns as the most likely alternative to become the third partner in a Central Party-led government.
Mr Juha Sipilä, the Central Party’s leader and likely to become Finland’s new Prime Minister currently leading with 24.9% of the votes, is not opposed to the idea so long as its partners agree with his political agenda. Not to mention that the current Prime Minister Alexander Stubb has reiterated that the Finns are much better than the reputation preceding them abroad, showing that he would also be open to support them as a coalition partner. As a result, anti-EU forces might find themselves in the Finnish government, despite the fact that voters are rallying around the established parties and support for reactionary parties is fading.
The Finn’s leader Timo Soini
… to Europe!
A coalition including the Central Party and the Finns is expected to be less pro-European as the current government. Mr Sipilä, though successful in business, is not renowned for his international experience and although his party might consider itself pro-European difficult compromises will need to be made with the Finns, who are opposing new bailout programmes, the Euro and further deepening of European relations.
In Brussels the event of a coalition between the Central Party, the conservative National Coalition Party and the Finns will mainly impact Finland’s position and negotiation leeway in the Council. Mr Sipilä’s hands in negotiations will be more tied than Mr Stubb’s or Mr Katainen’s have been. On the one hand he would have to demonstrate his support for a deeper EU to its European partners – to whom Finland will grow more and more economically dependent the longer sanctions against Russia prevail. On the other, he would have to reassure his coalition partner Finland is maintaining high levels of sovereignty and remaining critical towards the Eurozone. In particular on the latter, however, Mr Sipilä demonstrate strength by continuing to back strict rules and austerity measures – policies that all Finnish parties support both for their own country and for Europe. Finland is therefore expected to remain “Europe’s fiscal hawk”. Moreover more than before Finland will be likely to defend EU disintegration positions and align itself to the UK defending sovereign interest and the principle of subsidiarity.
Anglo-Finnish cooperation is already well established in the European Parliament, where the Finns have joined the British-led European Conservatives and Reformists Group demonstrating a conservative yet mainstream political agenda. As the elections are likely to make Prime Minister Stubb’s party a junior coalition partner, we neither expect that the outcome will neither affect the focus of the National Coalition as part of the EPP nor workings of the Finnish Vice-President of the Commission Jyrki Katainen nor drastically change the focus of his political agenda in Europe.
All in all, the Finnish elections may not change the tone in Brussels tremendously on their own, but they will provide insights on how anti-establishment parties are likely to affect national politics and therefore affect London’s, Copenhagen’s, Berlin’s and Madrid’s positioning in Brussels.
Is Europe Finnish(ed)?
The Finnish “case study” is helpful in understanding and dealing with the fast growing support for anti-establishment movements across the Continent. In the North, Sweden, Denmark and Norway are watching closely as growing support for their respective populist parties is making it harder for their mainstream parties to continue ignoring them. While Norway is currently being led by a coalition of conservatives and the populist Progress party, the Sweden Democrats came third in the September 2014 elections in Sweden and Denmark’s Danish People’s Party is gaining influence and support before the upcoming elections in autumn.
In the Centre of Europe, the Finns’ positioning and agenda seem familiar to a still domestically unwelcome anti-Euro party in Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Bernd Lucke, the party’s leader, will eye developments in the North closely to assess whether the Finnish outcome might be a valuable example on how he could achieve his power aspirations in Germany.
In the South, Spain is also experiencing a similar trend with new anti-establishment parties, even though its popularity appears to be fading the closer we get to parliamentary elections in December. Podemos could grasp a large part of the votes, leaving no party with a majority to form a government.
Although anti-establishment parties are experiencing a slow in their popularity across Europe, all eyes will remain on them. The success of Podemos, Syriza, the Finns, the UK Independence Party and others will furthermore force the establishment to make concessions and re-orientate their position on a great variety of issues such as European integration, social, economic and fiscal policies.
While the traditional separation of power between centre-right and centre-left parties will continue to dominate Europe, anti-establishment parties are likely to make this election year way more thrilling and unpredictable than previous ones. Let’s see what happens!
Announcement:
We will keep you up-to-date with all our coverage of this election year with upcoming analysis of the UK and the consequences of a possible Brexit as well as following the election developments in Denmark, Portugal, Poland and Spain.
Ante Kotromanović, Minister of Defence of the Republic of Croatia and Jorge Domecq, Chief Executive of the EDA met yesterday to exchange views ahead of the June 2015 European Council and to discuss Croatia’s participation in EDA projects.
Minister Kotromanović underlined the important role of the Agency in fostering cooperation between Member States and improving their capabilities. He said: "We see the Agency as an important platform and mechanism for strengthening and further development of European defence capabilities. As a new EDA member, Croatia recognises the possibilities the Agency can provide to Member States, and we're analysing programmes in which we see the potential for cooperation. Those projects will have our full support.” The Minister also emphasised capacities and significance of the Croatian defence industry sector and its achievements. “I strongly believe we need to support participation of small and medium enterprises in cooperative programmes, where dual-use programmes have great importance and potential".
“Croatia has joined the European Defence Agency not even two years ago. Notwithstanding this short period of time, Croatia is actively participating in some of our key projects as for example the military implementation of the Single European Sky. The role of the Agency is to act as an interface between the European Commission and the national Ministries of Defence to ensure that the military views are well taken into account in the modernisation of the European skies. At the same time, we also inform the Member States of the latest developments in Brussels. The Agency can furthermore provide valuable support to the national defence industry and in particular small and medium sized enterprises by providing information on funding for dual-use research”, Jorge Domecq stated during his visit in Zagreb.
The visit also included meetings with other high-level officials of the Croatian Ministry of Defence, the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs and the Croatian Chamber of Economy. It is part of a series of visits by Mr. Domecq to all EDA Member States following his appointment as EDA Chief Executive and ahead of the Ministerial Steering Board on 18 May 2015. So far, Mr. Domecq visited Spain, Lithuania, Latvia, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, Portugal, the Netherlands, Ireland, France, Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovenia.