Diplomacy & Crisis News

USAID is in the dark on Trump's plans, but Republicans in Congress could be the main defenders of foreign assistance.

Ignore the corruption or human rights abuse allegations. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov wants you to know he’s a really great guy, and he’s got a reality show to prove it.

Briefing the Security Council on the Middle East peace process, two senior United Nations officials – the UN relief chief and the UN coordinator for the Middle East peace process – called for action to prevent further deterioration of the region plagued by humanitarian crises and to save lives and alleviate human suffering.

Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the targets of a recount effort amid allegations of Russian hacking.

The United Nations-backed court set up to bring to trial those most responsible for crimes committed during Cambodia’s brutal Khmer Rouge regime today upheld life sentences for two top former Khmer Rouge leaders on Wednesday for crimes against humanity.

International condemnation, not proper investigation, prompted Dubai to drop the charges, experts say.

The likely death of the hard-fought TPP pact has left even Washington's closest allies wondering about its credibility.

Global innovation is soaring as the 2015 edition of a United Nations agency on intellectual property report reveals that 2.9 million patent applications lodged worldwide – a 7.8 per cent increase over the previous year.

Dans cette tragicomédie autobiographique, l'auteure explore de façon récursive son enfance et la découverte de son homosexualité, au prisme des relations avec son père et de multiples références littéraires…

Alison Bechdel, Fun Home, Denoël, 2006.

De « Game of Thrones » à « Love Actually », de l'importance de la représentation à la culture du viol, Mirion Malle dissèque la « pop culture » et les tropes du patriarcat avec pédagogie et humour.

Mirion Malle, Commando Culotte, Ankama, 2016.

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Post-disaster assessments by the United Nations food security and emergency food relief agencies in hurricane-hit Haiti have revealed &#8220extensive&#8221 damage to crops, livestock and fisheries as well as to infrastructure such as irrigation &#8211 with the most affected areas having up to 100 per cent crop damage or destruction.

Noting the &#8220best efforts&#8221 of the Turkish Cypriot leader and the Greek Cypriot leader at the United Nations-brokered talks held recently in Switzerland, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged them to continue their efforts in line with their shared commitment to do their utmost in order to reach a settlement in 2016.

Thursday, 17 November 2016, presented an uncomely anniversary for the inhabitants of Mosul, the second largest Iraqi city, located about 400 kilometres north of Baghdad. It was one month since the Battle of Mosul began, with Iraqi government forces under Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi seeking to recapture the city from ISIL, also known as Da’esh. The extremist group has held control over the city for more than two years now, subjecting civilians there to despicable atrocities and untold suffering.

Space applications related to telecommunications and global navigation can play a vital role in supporting disaster risk reduction, response and recovery efforts, a senior United Nations official said today at the UN forum on space as a socio-economic driver for sustainable development under way in Dubai.

People from lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) communities around the world are experiencing a proliferation in hate speech, including “rampant” social media attacks, as well as violence and discrimination, a newly appointed United Nations human rights expert warned today.

Following a decision of the United Nations Human Rights Council, in which it setup a commission of inquiry to investigate human rights violations and abuses in Burundi, including whether they may constitute international crimes, the President of the body has appointed the Commission’s Chair and members.

The United Nations peacekeeping mission in the Central African Republic has called for an immediate end to violence after the clashes that broke out on Monday in Bria town between armed elements of the Front populaire pour la renaissance de la Centrafrique (FPRC) and the Union pour la paix en Centrafrique (UPC).

The results of the US presidential election are expected to mark a substantial shift in American foreign policy in the Asia-Pacific region. Since 2011, President Obama has inaugurated a critical recalibration phase of Washington’s primary interest over the region, considered as the natural epicenter of American economic, diplomatic and strategic interest.

The “rebalance to Asia” strategy is one of the most distinctive hallmark of the Obama administration, marked by the determination and the commitment of Washington to reaffirm its role in the region over the years.

Echoing his historic speech to the Australian Parliament, President Obama has renewed American engagement in the region during his state visit to Laos to attend the U.S-ASEAN Summit. Back in 2012, the beginning of the America’s Pacific Century was saluted by former Secretary of State Clinton as the most critical opportunity to ensure the peace and prosperity.

During this time the American political elites have faced a wide range of challenges that have prevented the Obama administration to fully achieve the pursuit of a new form of Manifest Destiny in the region.           The new direction represented by the Rebalance to Asia strategy, has embodied a marked shift in the U.S. foreign policy, becoming a critical tool to establish a solid baseline for deepening the level of economic, political and military cooperation with critical regional actors and allies

This has been featured through the establishment of a very comprehensive agenda that encompasses the following priorities:

1. the protection and the expansion of the free flow of the trade and commerce;
2. the  promotion of economic integration and liberalization in the region;
3.  the strengthening of Washington’s critical strategic cooperation with allies and new partners  based on safe and secure lines of communication(SLOCs);
4. and the increase of the stability in the region in response to the emergence of non-traditional threats, undermining the regional security architecture.

Obama’s Asia-Pacific great strategy has indeed been characterized by an audacious attempt to foster a new phase of positive relations with China during a time in which the daunting shadow of Beijing’s presence, rising as a hegemonic and revisionist power has posed a serious challenge to the fragile regional balance.

China’s aggressive military posture and willingness to defend its strategic interest has originated countless deadlocks with Japan, Taiwan and a large number of ASEAN nations, diffident about the real nature of China’s peaceful rise.

Through these eight years, Beijing has remained a formidable challenger of Washington’s determination to design the contours of regional order based on the freedom of navigation and overflight and the respect of international law.

Chinese political elites have perceived the launching of Rebalance to Asia strategy as a clear attempt to contain and or even undermine their rightful leading role and core interest the in the region. More relevant, China’s statecraft tradition and Confucian political vision do not recognize the universality of western values considered as the most fundamental pillars of Washington-oriented international order.

In the last two decades China has strived to frame a new and comprehensive political, economic and strategy vision able to project its role and interest in the global scenario.

Chinese political elites have increasingly pushed forward an alternative narrative of regional and international order that has emerged alongside Beijing’s maritime expansion in the South China Sea or with the establishment of the alternative to western-oriented trans-regional financial and infrastructural institutions and initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the One Belt and One Road.

While China and the U.S. have welcomed a new proactive engagement based on the framework of a new type of Great Power relations, characterized by reciprocal respect and recognition of national interest, the perspective of a phase of distension in the China-US relations remain uncertain.

Beijing’s remains wary of Washington’s presence in the Asia-Pacific, de facto pursuing a strategy aiming to overshadow the fulfillment of the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation.

In addition, China’s restless desire to pursue a more dynamic role in the region through the expansion and the modernization of its military and power projections capabilities is the direct consequence of Beijing’s priority to protect its national maritime interest in East China and South China Sea and still represent the most enduring source of confrontation with Washington and a large number of Pacific nations.

Despite the increasing number of challenges to regional balance, China’s emergence as a great power has represented the most critical element of recalibration of Washington’s foreign policy in the region.

Beijing’s maritime assertiveness has flamed tensions but it has also provided a valuable opportunity for the Obama administration to establish the dialogue and the basis for forthcoming strategic cooperation with regional partners such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore Taiwan, Vietnam and also the Philippines, recently shifted from Washington’s to Beijing’s orbit.

The United States have managed to foster the consolidation of security cooperation with Japan through the revision of the U.S.-Japan Defense guidelines that have notably improved the strategic contribution of Tokyo alongside its historical ally. Washington and Tokyo have established a new and critical Alliance Coordination Mechanism and Bilateral Planning Mechanism to better respond to the emergence of a wide range of threats.

The Obama administration has put additional efforts to encourage a closer partnership between Japan and South Korea vis-à-vis the nuclear threat represented by the DPRK’s nuclear and ballistic ambitions. Washington’s has assisted Seoul in the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence battery as the ultimate deterrent against Pyongyang, despite China’s opposition that considers THAAD as an attempt to undermine China’s strategic interest.

As regards the DPRK, Washington has relied on a “strategic patience” strategy, aiming to the resumption of the negotiations with Pyongyang while stressing the priority of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula as a prior condition to any concession to Kim’s regime. The Obama administration has tried to foster a wider engagement of Beijing, considered as a critical actor in enforcing economic sanctions against the DPRK.

Despite Sino-North Korean relations have significantly cooled since Kim Jong-un rose to the leadership, Beijing’s opposition to any change in the status quo, including the collapse of the DPRK has convinced the CCP leadership that a full recalibration of North Korea’s policy could lead to an uncertain outcome.

Beijing’s marked level of dissatisfaction toward South Korea’s more assertive strategic initiatives such as the deployment of the THAAD has represented a daunting impasse in South Korea’s relations with China. Beijing’s limited results to curb North Korea’s restless military assertiveness has indeed affected Seoul’s decision to curtail the relations with China in favor of a broader strategic partnership with Washington.

Undoubtedly, the severe security environment constantly affected by Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear threats has provided the Obama administration with the opportunity not only to amend the ties between Japan and South Korea, particularly as regards the legacy of the Imperial Japan occupation of the Korean peninsula during the first half of the 20th century, but it has laid the foundation for a stronger strategic trilateral cooperation.

Despite the Obama administration’s efforts to design a new vision and engagement, able to reframe Washington’s role and interest in the Asia-Pacific region, limited results have been achieved. Beijing’s land reclamation, infrastructure building in the South China Sea and military presence in the East China Sea in defiance of the U.S. pledge to ensure the freedom of navigation continues to undermine Washington’s credibility with its allies.

Moreover, the Obama administration’s address to the United Nation to join the efforts to force North Korea to comply with the UN Security Council resolutions has produced no tangible results. Last September Pyongyang successfully completed its 4th nuclear test, escalating the chance of military confrontation in the Korean peninsula.

Nevertheless, the United States remains and will remain committed to the Asia Pacific region and the legacy of the Obama administration could represent the very starting point for a wider pivot, whose success mostly would depend on the willingness and ability of the new incoming administration to follow and implement the path already marked.

The post Obama’s Uncertain Legacy to the Asia-Pacific Region appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Laure Mandeville, Qui est vraiment Donald Trump ?, Equateurs, Paris, 2016
Quelques jours après l’élection présidentielle américaine, il importe de relire le petite ouvrage de Laure Mandeville, journaliste au Figaroet pendant huit années correspondante à Washington, qui nous a offert l’une des meilleures synthèses sur la personnalité complexe du candidat républicain et désormais prochain président américain. Retour sur ses origines familiales, parcours médiatique de ce magnat devenu familier des foyers américains à force de coups de publicité et de télé-réalité, options internationales parfois improvisées mais révélant des tendances profondes ou des opportunités personnelles : c’est un panorama à peu près complet que nous livre ce livre clair et équilibré. De cet effort d’objectivation, qu’il faut saluer tant il est difficile de rester objectif sur Trump, il ressort plusieurs choses. En premier lieu, Trump est le candidat d’une certaine Amérique que l’on peut qualifier de frileuse ou fermée, mais surtout déclassée et inquiète : ce sont les « bastions populaires blancs paupérisés » bien analysés dans le chapitre 4. « Insécurité culturelle », dirait le politiste Laurent Bouvetà propos de la France. Ensuite, « Trump n’est pas Hitler » (chapitre 5). Il est trop opportuniste pour cela, versatile, insuffisamment structuré. Son ego lui importe bien davantage que son programme ou qu’une quelconque révolution. C’est ce qui fit d’abord son succès : aisance décomplexée dans le contact avec le public, sens du (one man) show, de la répartie ou de la formule. C’est ce qui fait également sa limite : après tant d’années à avoir retourné des situations financières, rattrapé des clients, des associés ou des contrats, d’une pirouette, d’un mot juste ou d’un pouvoir de conviction bien réel, « Le Donald » n’a peut-être pas encore entrevu qu’un leadership national et mondial nécessitait davantage, à savoir une stratégie pensée et collective. Le portrait dressé par Laure Mandeville n’est pas rassurant : liens troublants avec des personnages peu recommandables, méthodes douteuses, ego surdimensionné, paranoïa complotiste (ce que la dernière ligne droite de la campagne américaine a permis de vérifier), goût sans limite du coup d’éclat, tentation autoritaire… Enfin, Trump est une figure américaine connue pour ses écarts, et appréciée comme tel dans certains segments de l’Amérique en crise, du fait d’une profonde demande de changement, de renouvellement des têtes. A ce titre, il faut rapprocher son succès de celui de bernie Sanders aux primaires démocrates, mais aussi des percées populistes européennes. Une demande de repères identitaires, de purge du système politique et de politiques non conventionnelles, ont imposé Trump comme candidat au Parti républicain, puis comme président, au mépris des pronostiques. Contrôler la page Trump sera la tâche de l’Amérique toute entière.