Africa

July 9, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - The Sudanese President Omer al-Bashir on Monday attended the inauguration ceremony of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara.

Erdogan won an absolute majority in the presidential election on June 24 with 52.5% of the vote. His re-election marked Turkey's transition to an executive presidential system of government.

On Monday, he took the presidential oath of office to become Turkey's first president under its new system.

Al-Bashir is under two International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrants since 2008 for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes allegedly committed in Darfur.

Turkey is not a state party to the tribunal of war crimes but has the obligation as a member of the United Nations to cooperate with the court.

Since the issuance of the two arrest warrants, Bashir limited his trips abroad to ICC non-party states but he also travelled to five signatory states including the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Malawi, Djibouti and South Africa.

His trip to South Africa in 2015 drew international attention after he flew out of the country defying a High court order which orders the government to ban his departure until an application calling for his arrest had been heard.

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July 9, 2018 (KHARTOUM) - Sudan's Presidential Envoy for Diplomatic Contact and Negotiation for Darfur Amin Hassan Omer said no date has been fixed to resume Darfur peace talks.

Amin Hassan Omer (Photo SUNA)

Omer on Monday met an envoy from the African Union High Implementation Panel (AUHIP) in the presence of the head of the African Union (AU) office in Khartoum.

He pointed out that the meeting discussed ways to resume talks on the Roadmap Agreement as well as integrating the various initiatives including the German efforts to accelerate resumption of the negotiations.

Omer expected the peace talks would be resumed after the AUHIP completes its consultations with all parties.

The Roadmap agreement was mediated by the AUHIP and signed by the government in March 2016 and the opposition alliance Sudan Call in August 2016. But, it was not implemented following the parties' failure to reach a humanitarian cessation of hostilities paving the way for peace negotiations

Last April, delegations representing the Government of Sudan, Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Sudan Liberation Movement of Minni Minnawi ended two-day discussions in Berlin without signing a pre-negotiation agreement.

The two sides say willing for a negotiated settlement but failed to agree on how to proceed. The government put on the negotiating table the Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD), but the armed groups say they want a new process on new bases, not this framework text signed in July 2011 with other former rebel groups.

The holdout groups including the JEM and SLM-MM refused to sign the DDPD in July 2011 and called to open the framework agreement for talks.

Other groups like the Sudan Liberation Movement - Abdel Wahid (SLM-AW) have declined to join the process and rejected its outcome.

The AUHIP led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki proposed a holistic process to end the armed conflicts and produce political reforms in Sudan.

During the year 2015-2016, talks between the government and the SLM-MM and JEM failed to reach a tangible result despite international efforts to bring together the opposition groups and to narrow the gaps between them and the government.

Germany and the AUHIP signed a deal to facilitate the two-track process for a comprehensive peace agreement in Sudan. Berlin already organised a number of meeting in this respect.

Last February, the Peace and Security Council of the African Union (PSC) urged the AUHIP to make progress in the resolution of Darfur conflict during the upcoming three months.

The Sudanese army has been fighting a group of armed movements in Darfur since 2003. UN agencies estimate that over 300,000 people were killed in the conflict and over 2.5 million were displaced.

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Ethiopia and Eritrea were bitter enemies for half a century but have embraced peace in just a few days.

Recent developments in Africa indicate that the continent is increasingly moving in the “direction of peace” and enhanced security, the United Nations Secretary-General told journalists in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on Monday.

By: Alsir Sidahmed

A state of uncertainty and ambiguity is all over the world. Thanks to the bullying policies of US President Donald Trump, who, in effect, is shaking the foundation of the World Order that has been established seven decades ago. Two issues came to the forefront: the trade war he launched with foes and allies alike from Canada to China to the European Union and threaten to move into an overall world trade war that may lead to an economic recession that is going to hurt everyone. And the other issue is to curtail Iran in an effort that either leads to regime change or a change in its behaviour.

One of the important cards Trump is going to play is to sanction Iranian oil industry and pressure others not to buy Iran crude as of come November. With exports amounting to 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd), Iran comes third as exporter within OPEC, but more important Trump's moves to remove the Iranian oil from the market comes at a time there is great possibility that the market is moving into a tight situation given the growing demand because of economic growth coupled with inability of a number of producing countries to pump at capacity for variety of reasons.

In addition to Iran, other countries like Venezuela, Libya, Angola and Nigeria fail to produce the level they want to due to reasons related to security or affected by issues to do with the industry in these countries. And that is why OPEC decided in its meeting last month to opt for easing its 2017 agreement that calls for cutting production inside and outside OPEC by 1.8 million bpd though the original deal was to keep that production volume off the market till the year-end. Instead, it has been decided to pump additional one million bpd, but Trump who is facing mid-term elections and was not happy with the high gasoline prices started to press publicly OPEC and Saudi Arabia, in particular, to pump more oil to cool down prices.

Saudi Arabia announced that last month its production topped 10.48 million bpd, which is the highest level of crude that the kingdom produced. That leaves 1.5 million bpd spare capacity to be deployed whenever there is a cut in supplies for security or whatever reason, but that figure for a world demand that hovers around 100 million bpd shows clearly how precarious is the situation. Moreover, that spare capacity has not been tested before.

As a result, some analysts don't rule out the spike in oil prices that can easily cross the psychological $100 a barrel bar unless the United States resorts to its 713 million barrels Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and draw down some supplies to fill the gap and keep prices under control.

Regardless of whatever happens the current situation brings to mind two cases where the tight market exploded into an open oil shock. The reference is to the 1973 price spike that coincided with the Arab Israeli war, then six years the second shock that followed the Iranian Revolution. And in such conditions, the issue of energy security is highlighted.

And that brings the issue to the doors of Sudan, which has its own problems in securing enough oil supplies to run its business. The long queues before gasoline filling stations a couple of months ago points clearly to the difficult days ahead as the oil market is turning into a buyers' one. In such a market, it is not only enough to have sufficient funds to purchase, but securing supplies at any price may come to a problem as the second oil shock during the Iranian Revolution showed.

The recent deal with South Sudan that involves rehabilitating the oil industry in that country, use Sudanese technical expertise and downstream facilities could provide some relief through the transit fees that Sudan can levy in cash or kind, but eventually guaranteeing energy security for the country requires boosting domestic production at least to the level of meeting local consumption. Despite losing some 75 per cent of its known oil reserves, but still, Sudan has enough oil that needs to be tapped. That is an achievable goal if there is a political will, a clear agenda and rational prioritizing of what needs to be done.

Normal relations between South Sudan and Sudan is absolutely necessary

By Roger Alfred Yoron Modi

In his speech, during the signing of the Khartoum Declaration in Sudan a little over a week, SPLM/A-IO leader Dr Riek Machar said the Agreement will build confidence between Sudan and South Sudan and normalize the relations between the two countries.

“…the fact that north Sudan can assist South Sudan to become peaceful and stable and can assist South Sudan to revitalize its economy…it's something that we cherish…. [the agreement] will also open the way for implementation of 2012 nine mutual agreements after the independence of South Sudan…If at all our relations had been a little bit rocky, this agreement will normalize the relations between the two Sudans—which means our people will live happily…It is going to be an agreement that will integrate us…” said Dr Machar.

President Salva Kiir's government, as well as other South Sudanese in the various political and civil society groups, have also time and again echoed the importance of normalization of relations between the two Countries.

Indeed despite the painful history of betrayals and long decades of deadly conflicts, both South Sudan and Sudan still have a lot in common—in terms of trade, a very long border of nearly 2000 Kilometers, cultures, history, and many more. South Sudan's most important source of revenue, the oil, pass to the market through Sudan. It is absolutely necessary that there are normal relations between the two countries.

Dr John Garang would say “Sometimes it is necessary to go back in order to gain momentum in order to go forward…That is why you see sheep, you see rams moving backwards first when they fight. They gain momentum before they lock horns…We very much need to do this exercise in Sudan. To go back thousands of years so as to rediscover ourselves. Gain momentum and then move forward with the momentum of 5,000 years to propel ourselves and snatch ourselves into history once again. And we have a very long history indeed. Peoples and kingdoms have lived, thrived and disappeared in the geographical area that constitutes present modern Sudan.”

Though Dr Garang was speaking in 2005 during the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPA in Nairobi, the arguments he raised remain valid and we in both South Sudan and Sudan can still apply to move our two independent Countries forward. South Sudan also should be able to contribute for a just peace in Sudan and put an end to the political crisis and armed conflict between the northern rebels and the Sudanese government.

It was just due to egos and lack of a clear vision that the leaders of SPLM in the South and NCP in the North failed to rise above their ideological differences and bitter history of conflict. They failed to utilize available opportunities for reconciliation between themselves and the people of the two Countries after decades of bitter civil wars and even after the secession of the South.

The current normalization of relations being talked about should be based on mutual benefits and respect of the sovereignty of each Country. No country should be able to support a war in the other. The normalization of relations should not be a deceit or blackmail of any side. South Sudan leaders should never accept to become pawns (puppets).

It is however very important for our people in South Sudan to understand that, practically, bringing peace to a divisive, war-torn country is very expensive. Apart from the blood we all know our people have shed, there are other costs for bringing peace. These may include making hard compromises such as paying different forms of direct or indirect incentives. That is how the world today works. Should we pay a little incentive and be able to attain some sort of peace so that our entire suffering population and the displaced millions be in a position to once again pick up their lives and prepare their children for the future? Or should we go on fighting, losing more resources and fellow humans in war, insecurity throughout the Country including the capital Juba? And several others also die because of hunger and of the poor health systems which are all results of bad governance coupled with economic crises created by the same war? Think about that!

Indeed our people shed blood for several decades to get the CPA we had, and our independence which we attained in 2011, after sustained support to both processes by Igad Countries and the international community. But it was not just referendum and the results thereof that let to our prompt recognition as a sovereign nation by several countries and the world shortly after. Yes, many countries supported us and were sympathetic to our suffering and years of struggle. But in some cases, there were a lot more about that.

Anyway, I'm not saying our leaders should be allowed to throwing away our sovereignty and resources. I'm only saying, practically, there are costs for us to pay in order to attain peace now. But that cost should be reasonable, affordable and should never be a source of threat to the future of our children and the next generations. It is our collective duty to ensure our leaders do not go out of that line
In conclusion, let me say, in fact, not just normalizing relations with Sudan is necessary, South Sudan needs to come up with clear foreign policy that represents the interests of its people and one that shall be able to promote beyond our borders the ideals of freedom, democracy, economic empowerment, mutual cooperation and respect, and all which, several decades ago, prompted our struggle against oppression and indignity.

South Sudan should be able to contribute to the benefit of its citizens and the unity and growth of our friends in the region, the African continent and the World. And certainly, all of that requires normalization of relations with our neighbours and old friends near and far who have fallen out with us for one reason or the other, including due to our people's inhumane, brutish, barbaric, criminal actions which continue to shock the world since 2013.

Roger Alfred Yoron Modi, a South Sudanese journalist, is the former Managing Editor of Juba Monitor Newspaper and former Chief Editor of Bakhita Radio. He can be reached via his email: rogeryoron@gmail.com

A peace deal in South Sudan will benefit the Sudanese president in more than one way

By Ahmed H Adam

Last week, the warring parties in South Sudan agreed to a "permanent" ceasefire, raising hopes of a peace deal to end a devastating civil war that has left tens of thousands of people dead and driven four million others from their homes since December 2013.

South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and opposition leader Riek Machar signed the landmark document in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum on June 27. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who helped broker the deal, was also present at the signing ceremony.

As part of the ceasefire agreement, Kiir and Machar agreed to permit members of the African Union and another regional group, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, to deploy peacekeeping troops to South Sudan. The two leaders also voiced their intention to form a new, transitional government to rule the country for 36 months leading up to national elections. The government of South Sudan also agreed to rehabilitate its oil fields in collaboration with the government of Sudan, and increase its oil production levels.

The move has been praised across the region as an important step towards bringing lasting peace and stability to the world's youngest nation-state. But in less than a week, peace efforts already faced major challenges.

The ceasefire entered into force on July 1 as agreed, however, it was violated within hours, with the government and armed opposition trading blame. Only a day later, on July 2, South Sudan's government presented a bill to the parliament seeking to amend the Constitution to extend Kiir's presidential term to 2021. The opposition immediately rejected the plan, arguing it would undermine the ongoing peace talks.

These developments raised doubts about both the opposition and the regime's commitment to peace. Moreover, there are still major question marks about the intentions and credibility of the facilitator of the negotiations - Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir.

Bashir has been implementing strategies that helped destabilise South Sudan since the oil-rich country gained its independence from Sudan in 2011. So why did he help broker a ceasefire between Kiir and Machar? And, perhaps most importantly, can such a fragile deal facilitated by a dubious broker lead to sustainable peace?

Bashir as a deal broker
The process that led to the signing of last week's permanent ceasefire started not in Khartoum, but in Addis Ababa. On June 21, Ethiopia's new, reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed hosted a private dinner between Kiir and Machar. The two leaders, who until that night had not been in the same room since 2016, posed together for the cameras, yet nothing came out of Ahmed's attempt to broker a deal.

After the apparent failure of Addis Ababa's peace efforts, on June 25 the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) announced that it would move the peace talks to Khartoum in a last attempt to push for peace.

By moving the negotiations from Ethiopia to Sudan the IGAD mediators and their international partners, namely the US, UK and Norway, took a well-calculated risk. They knew Bashir would not be an impartial mediator, but they had reason to believe he was the right person to push for peace.

Unlike Ahmed, Bashir has significant leverage over Machar's and other South Sudanese rebel groups - which he had long been supporting - and can convince them to accept a compromise. Furthermore, Bashir stands to gain a lot from peace in South Sudan.

First, after failing to secure much needed financial support from Gulf countries, Bashir views the resumption of oil production in South Sudan as his last chance to save Sudan's economy.

Second, he wants the US to remove Sudan from its "state sponsors of terrorism" list, and he knows he can impress the Trump administration by facilitating peace in South Sudan.

Third, he wants to divert attention from the political and economic crisis in his own country.

Fourth, he seeks to portray himself as a champion peacemaker, and Sudan as an "Island of stability" in the troubled region.

Who is behind the breakthrough in Khartoum?
So far, it seems that IGAD and its partners' gamble has paid off. Bashir used his understanding of South Sudan's internal dynamics and the leverage he has over South Sudanese opposition groups to deliver a much-needed breakthrough in the peace process.

Nevertheless, Bashir should not get all the credit for last week's landmark ceasefire deal.

Khartoum's efforts came at a time when the international community reached a consensus to end South Sudan's devastating civil war. Parties to South Sudan's conflict were also aware of this, and as a result, they were more motivated than ever to find common ground.

Also, prior to the signing of the ceasefire deal IGAD and its partners threatened to impose targeted sanctions on the top leaders of South Sudan, significantly helping Bashir's peace efforts.

Moreover, Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni, who was at Khartoum to oversee the signing of the ceasefire agreement, also played a crucial role in negotiations. Uganda has vital security and economic interests in South Sudan, so it is motivated to bring peace to the country.

It is not a secret that Museveni, who has long been providing military and political support to South Sudan's government, has some leverage over President Kiir. Until recently, he has been vetoing any agreement that allowed Machar to have a prominent role in South Sudan's government.

But it seems Bashir and Museveni finally reached an understanding regarding the future of South Sudan, making it possible for a ceasefire deal acceptable to both sides to be signed.

The way forward
But no matter who is responsible for the ceasefire - whether it is Bashir, Museveni, the warring parties or the international community - the group that will benefit the most from the cessation of hostilities will be the South Sudanese people.

What is important now is the shape the peace will take in South Sudan. If it is to be sustainable, peace in South Sudan should not be an elitist one. It should not come as a reward to those who have been waging the bloody war, or those who helped sustain it for years for their own benefit.

The coming peace should be a people's peace.

Any peace agreement should not be about making different factions of the elite happy, it should be about finding the best way to govern South Sudan. Justice, accountability, healing and reconciliation are key to a lasting peace and the nation and state-building process South Sudan would soon need to embark upon. IGAD and its international partners should push for a peace agreement that commits the conflicting parties to a far-reaching reform agenda.

Bringing comprehensive and lasting peace to South Sudan is going to be a daunting task and actors like Bashir will undoubtedly try to manipulate the peace process to their benefit. The country is extremely militarised, ethicised and polarised by the ongoing civil war, previous interethnic wars and by the liberation war with Sudan. The region is also divided over South Sudan - from Sudan to Uganda, each regional power wants peace on their own terms.

But despite all this, there is now real hope for peace in South Sudan. It is likely that the parties will agree on security arrangements either tomorrow or over the weekend. The IGAD, AU, EU, US and all other concerned members of the international community should invest in South Sudan's future. They should immediately establish the necessary mechanisms to effectively monitor the ceasefire and other provisions of the expected comprehensive peace agreement.

The international community used unlikely actors to score a ceasefire, now it's their responsibility to make sure these actors do not kick-start a peace process that would help them more than the South Sudanese people.

Ahmed H Adam is a Research Associate at SOAS' School of Law, University of London.

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