The recent plan by President Ursula von der Leyen of a €150 billion European joint debt to fund the purchase of arms under the name ReArm Europe has sent shockwaves across the continent and beyond. The press announcement, made on March 4th, followed the infamous Oval Office meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. The bullyish scene marked a further decline in the liberal international order established by the US and its allies after the Second World War.
Against this backdrop, European leaders were quick to act. Meetings in the Elysée under the aegis of President Macron, gatherings in London with the British Prime Minister Starmer, or the recent European Council meeting on security policy signal the importance of recent events. However, it was von der Leyen’s announcement that seems to have ushered in a new age of European defence and security, but is that so?
The announcement focused on economic means to achieve a security goal, not on security itself. The EU is proposing to put its market power behind an initiative that will contribute to the long-term stability of that market. This is why the proposal must be seen through the lens of geoeconomics, not just defence or security.
Europe’s geoeconomic turn is nothing new. Even during the first von der Leyen Commission the President vowed to create a more geopolitical Commission, it was actually focused on a geoeconomic one. Geoeconomics are, according to Blackwill and Harris, “the use of economic instruments to promote and defend national (or European) interests, and to produce beneficial geopolitical results; and the effects of other nations’ economic actions on a country’s (or the EU’s) geopolitical goals”. Thus, it is clear that many of the Commission’s initiatives fall under this concept. It is worth mentioning a few that may have a direct bearing on Europe’s security and defence.
The first geoeconomic tool with a defence application that comes to mind is sanctions. These have long been part of the EU’s institutional architecture and rely on the size of the single market to damage the enemy’s economy in the short and medium term. They can take the form of import and export restrictions, asset freezes, or visa bans. Although they are branded as “peaceful tools of diplomacy”, they fit perfectly into the definition of geoeconomic tools provided above.
Another geoeconomic tool that can be directly applied to European security policy is the Foreign Direct Investment Screening Mechanism (FDI SM). This mechanism was legislated after Member States saw a worrying increase in Chinese investment in Europe, especially in sensitive industries. The same FDI SM could be directly applied to foreign investment targeting the European defence industry, again relying on the EU’s market power.
A number of strategies also complement these tools by defining what the EU’s priorities should be in different areas, such as 5G, critical raw materials, or energy, to name a few. The common denominator of all these geoeconomic instruments is their reliance on the size of the EU market and its attractiveness to other global economies. The measure recently proposed by von der Leyen on joint debt to buy weapons follows the same line. It has more to do with geoeconomics than with security or defence. From the point of view of competences, it makes sense for the EU institutions to focus on the Common Commercial Policy or the proper functioning of the internal market to guide EU policy, regardless of the specific policy area. Ultimately, these are also power struggles between the EU institutions and the Member States. However, it is unlikely that purely security measures will be led by the Commission in the short term. The creation of a common European army or further decisions to relaunch security integration will have to be spearheaded by the Member States.
All in all, the von der Leyen’s announcement is to be welcomed. The borrowing limit enshrined in the neoliberal rules imposed on the Member States by Maastricht is arbitrary. Its temporary lifting and mutualisation, as was the case during the Covid19 pandemic, is now considered an emergency measure in response to the emergency situation created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In the medium term, however, the repeated use of the same geoeconomic tool, the common debt, could become established. The only thing preventing the EU from unleashing its full economic power is the disagreement among member states on debt orthodoxy. It seems, as Monnet put it many years ago, that Europe is still built through crises and that it is indeed the sum of their solutions.
The post An expected surprise? Geoeconomic answers to security problems appeared first on Ideas on Europe.
Next AFET committee meetings will be held on:
defence industry. Ukraine's security and defence needs remain high on the agenda - in camera - with notably a joint meeting with the Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on National Security, Defence and Intelligence and discussions about EU-Ukraine joint security commitments.