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Un recours a été déposé devant le tribunal administratif de Paris pour “carence fautive” par les associations Notre affaire à tous, Bloom, Générations futures et des riverains de sites contaminés. Pour François Veillerette, porte-parole de Générations futures, invité de France 24 : “L’Etat a fait preuve d’inaction coupable face aux PFAS d’où notre action devant la justice.”

Netsanet Sori is bringing a flavour of the farm where she grew up to her new home 4,000 miles away.

 

Developments and Implications for Political Arrangements

Key Takeaways

May 2026 was marked by a widening gap between an increasingly detailed international transition framework for Gaza and a deteriorating situation on the ground. At the center of this disconnect lies the deadlock over disarmament and decommissioning, which is blocking progress across the broader transition agenda, including withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), reconstruction, and the deployment of the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). On May 21, High Representative Nickolay Mladenov presented a 15-point Roadmap for Phase Two centered on reciprocity and an independent verification mechanism designed to overcome the zero-trust environment between the parties.

The Roadmap is premised on the view that reconstruction, governance transition, and Israeli withdrawal cannot be sustainably implemented while multiple armed structures continue to operate alongside civilian institutions, and therefore places gradual, Palestinian-led decommissioning under NCAG authority at the center of the transition process. In practice, however, this sequencing links progress across multiple tracks to movement on the disarmament file. Hamas has rejected two versions of the plan, citing Israel’s continued non-compliance with key ceasefire and Phase One obligations, including restricted aid flows and border crossings, persistent military strikes, and the expansion of control beyond the Yellow Line established under the Sharm el-Sheikh arrangement. Hamas has also questioned the absence of a sufficiently defined political horizon, arguing that the Roadmap specifies detailed obligations on decommissioning while providing less clarity on the political steps that would lead to Palestinian statehood. Meanwhile, in the West Bank, a nine-country joint statement condemned construction in the E1 area amid record settler violence, and Israel’s interception of the Global Sumud Flotilla exposed fractures within the Israeli government. The overall trajectory points toward a hardening partition of Gaza, accelerating de facto annexation of the West Bank, and a widening gap between the peace framework’s ambition and its ability to deliver.

Main Developments

● Mladenov presents a 15-point Roadmap to the Security Council, demanding both sides act. On May 21st, High Representative Mladenov briefed the Security Council with a 15-point “Roadmap to Complete the Implementation of President Trump’s Gaza Comprehensive Peace Plan.” Built on the principle of reciprocity, each step by one side triggers a corresponding step by the other, verified by an independent committee before the next is taken. Mladenov stressed that despite months of consultations with various factions, Hamas has not accepted the framework. He urged the Security Council to “use every means at its disposal” to press Hamas to disarm and Israel to honor its ceasefire obligations, warning, “It is a deteriorating status quo or a new beginning, there is no third option.”

● Gaza ceasefire holds, but violations mount; humanitarian gains remain fragile. In the seven months since the October 2025 truce, over 2,400 Israeli violations have been documented, and at least 856 Palestinians have been killed. Mladenov acknowledged limited improvements but said 85% of Gaza’s buildings are damaged or destroyed, 70 million tons of rubble remain, and 80% of working-age Palestinians are unemployed. Humanitarian leaders from Save the Children and Refugees International however noted that aid deliveries remain far below the 600 trucks per day stipulated in the peace plan. Since March 2025, Israel has blocked UNRWA from directly bringing humanitarian personnel and aid into Gaza. The agency’s health director warned that the spread of rodents and infections signals the “near collapse” of Gaza’s health system.

● Israel killed Hamas’s military chief in Gaza City airstrike. Israel’s killing of al-Qassam Brigades commander Izz al-Din al-Haddad on May 15th was followed just 11 days later by a strike targeting his successor, Mohammed Ouda, on the eve of Eid al-Adha on May 26th. Simultaneously, systematic strikes on Hamas’s police force, with 42 officers killed since the ceasefire, suggest Israel is pursuing unilateral military disarmament rather than engaging with the roadmap’s reciprocal framework.

● Shin Bet chief meets Dahlan in Abu Dhabi to discuss Gaza governance. Shin Bet director David Zini met Mohammed Dahlan, a former Fatah security chief and long-time adviser to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed, in Abu Dhabi in late May. The meeting focused on postwar governance arrangements for Gaza, with Israeli, American, and Arab officials exploring Dahlan as a potential figure to lead or broker a transitional administration. This could signal the exploration of governance alternatives to both transitional NCAG and the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership under President Mahmoud Abbas, Dahlan’s bitter rival who expelled him from Fatah in 2011. If it gains traction, the Dahlan channel could reshape the political landscape but also deepen Palestinian factional fragmentation.

● Israel–Lebanon talks continue amid efforts to reinforce a fragile US-brokered ceasefire. On June 2nd and 3rd, Israeli and Lebanese officials held a fourth round of direct talks in Washington focused on strengthening deescalation arrangements and exploring phased measures to reduce hostilities. Proposals under discussion reportedly include the establishment of “pilot zones” where hostilities would cease, Israeli forces would withdraw, and the Lebanese Armed Forces would deploy, with the aim of gradually expanding these arrangements across southern Lebanon. Despite diplomatic engagement and US efforts to prevent escalation, Israeli military operations have continued in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah has maintained its rejection of any arrangement that does not include a comprehensive halt to Israeli operations throughout Lebanon.

● Nine Western nations condemn settlements and warn against E1 construction. The UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, and the Netherlands issued a joint statement on May 22nd condemning settlement construction in the E1 area as a “serious breach of international law,” warning that it would further fragment the West Bank by linking Ma’ale Adumim to East Jerusalem and undermining the territorial contiguity of a future Palestinian state. The statement warned businesses against bidding for E1 tenders. With over 760 documented incidents (an average of six per day) and 2,000 Palestinians displaced, 2026 has already surpassed 2025 as the deadliest year for settler attacks.

● Global Sumud Flotilla is intercepted; Ben Gvir’s treatment of activists sparks crisis. Israeli forces intercepted over 60 boats that were part of a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in international waters, detaining some 420 activists. A video showing National Security Minister Ben Gvir taunting detainees drew condemnation from ten foreign ministers, Netanyahu himself, and the United States. Separately, the UN’s Secretary-general’s annual report on conflict-related sexual violence included Israeli armed and security forces in its list of parties credibly suspected of patterns of sexual violence in conflict, citing verified cases primarily involving Palestinian detainees in detention and prison facilities.

● US political support for Israel continues eroding. Declining American public support for Israel is increasingly translating into policy friction. The once-assured annual military aid package is now subject to debate across party lines, while Washington appears reluctant to endorse renewed large-scale operations in Gaza to break the disarmament impasse. Instead, US policymakers are reportedly giving greater consideration to a contingency approach that would allow elements of the transition framework to proceed in areas outside Hamas’s control. The Board of Peace’s $70 billion reconstruction plan nevertheless faces an urgent liquidity crisis, with disbursements far below commitments.

Structural Dynamics

From a stalled 15-point Roadmap to a partition trajectory: Mladenov’s warning that the Board of Peace may “explore alternative modalities” if both sides refuse to engage and agree to the 15-point Roadmap signals a possible pivot toward partial implementation in areas outside Hamas control and beyond the territory held by the IDF west of the so-called Yellow Line. Increasingly referred to as the “Orange Zone,” these areas fall under the control of Israeli-backed militias. While potentially pragmatic, such a contingency would risk formalizing Gaza’s fragmentation rather than resolving it, resulting in a de facto partition between Israeli-controlled buffer zones in the north and east, a Hamas-administered enclave in the center, and an Orange Zone stranded between them.

Escalating military operations since Mladenov’s Security Council briefing: In parallel, the pattern of Israeli military operations since Mladenov’s May 21st briefing suggests an effort to achieve through force what the Roadmap seeks to accomplish through negotiation. Israel has stepped up its attacks in Gaza since the US–Iran ceasefire took effect. This includes the systematic elimination of Hamas’s military command with al-Haddad and Mohammed Odeh’s killings, the degradation of its governance capacity through renewed strikes on police and administrative structures, and renewed attacks on alleged weapons caches. Together, these actions bypass the Roadmap’s phased, Palestinian-led decommissioning process. The strategic risk is considerable: if Hamas concludes that engagement with the Roadmap offers no protection against military dismantlement and targeted killings, it will have little incentive to participate and engage in negotiations to dismantle its military wing.

Accelerating de facto annexation: The West Bank is experiencing a convergence of legal, administrative, and vigilante actions that collectively accelerate annexation. The E1 tender, if construction proceeds, would physically sever the northern and southern West Bank, a move the nine-country joint statement explicitly flagged as a “decisive blow” to the viability of a two-state solution. Settler violence in 2026 has already surpassed the entirety of 2025, and Israel’s February 2026 registration of West Bank lands as “state property” formalizes administrative control in ways that are increasingly difficult to reverse, regardless of any future political agreement.

The Lebanon track’s fragile promise: The Israel–Lebanon peace talks represent the most significant diplomatic opening on any front, but they rest on precarious foundations. The 45-day ceasefire extension buys time, yet Israeli strikes killing 22 people including civilians during the truce period undercut its credibility. Hezbollah’s categorical rejection of the talks mean that any agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government may face significant implementation challenges if contested by the country’s most powerful armed actor. The Pentagon coordination meeting on May 29th is a critical test. If it can produce a credible withdrawal timeline, the talks may survive into a substantive phase. Without it, the Lebanon track risks following the Gaza ceasefire into indefinite stalemate.

Shifting US political constraints and potential openings: May’s events confirmed that the bipartisan consensus on unconditional US support for Israel is fragmenting. Reports on June 1st signal that even the most pro-Israel administration in decades sees Israeli unilateralism as a political liability. The flotilla crisis deepened the rift, with Washington joining the chorus of condemnation against Ben Gvir. Yet structural constraints persist: Congress continues to fund military aid, and the Board of Peace framework gives Israel effective veto power over Gaza’s governance transition. The emerging US posture is one of rhetorical distance without material consequences, a gap that Israeli leaders have proven adept at exploiting. Israel-Palestine Monthly Brief May 2026

Recommendations

Regional and international actors, should:

1. Endorse and operationalize the Implementation Verification Committee envisioned in Mladenov’s 15-point Roadmap, with a Security Council mandate to report publicly on ceasefire violations and implementation progress by both parties, breaking the cycle of unaccountable breaches and building the trust infrastructure that the Roadmap’s reciprocity model requires.

2. Coordinate a unified European and allied diplomatic response to E1 construction, including concrete measures such as investment screening for settlement-linked enterprises and enhanced support for Palestinian communities facing displacement in Area C and the Jordan Valley.

3. Press for Hezbollah’s inclusion, directly or through Lebanese government channels, in the substantive phase of Israel–Lebanon negotiations, recognizing that any durable agreement requires buy-in from the principal armed actor.

4. Demand an immediate halt to targeted killings during the ceasefire period, framing the systematic elimination of Hamas commanders and police as fundamentally incompatible with the Roadmap’s reciprocity principle, and condition further reconstruction disbursements on verified Israeli compliance with ceasefire obligations and NCAG’s access to the territory.

Indicators to Watch

• Pentagon military coordination meeting (May 29th) and fourth round of Israel–Lebanon talks in Washington (June 2nd–3rd): Watch for whether a credible Israeli withdrawal timeline from southern Lebanon emerges and substantive issues beyond ceasefire extension are addressed.
• Dahlan governance track: Watch for whether the Shin Bet–Dahlan channel produces a concrete proposal, how the NCAG and the PA respond to this, and whether Arab states coalesce around a Dahlan-brokered alternative transitional framework for Gaza.
• E1 construction timeline: Watch for whether tenders advance and whether international pressure produces any Israeli policy adjustment.
• NCAG entry into Gaza: Watch for any movement on the committee’s ability to establish a physical presence and begin governance operations and whether the Board of Peace supports partial implementation in non-Hamas “Orange Zone” areas.
• Palestinian legislative elections: Watch for whether the momentum from April 25th local elections and Fatah’s 8th Convention catalyzes broader demands for national-level elections, particularly from independent and reform-oriented constituencies.

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This document was prepared by IPI Consultant Jaser Abu Mousa with editorial support from IPI. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author and do not represent those of IPI.

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