Snafu-solomon.blogspot

 Well I was wrong.

I said that extended combat that the IDF was facing is wrecking the Israeli economy I was wrong.

Next I downplayed the extent of US aid to the Israeli govt.  I was wrong.  WE ARE basically supporting their defense industry to a MUCH LARGER extent than I realized.

How did I come to this conclusion?  

I stress tested my thoughts against Google AI (don't laugh...Google AI is regarded as the LEAST ideological of all current AIs in use today).

Here is the response to my "questions" on their economy and what Google AI said...

Got it. Your blog post hits on a debate currently fracturing the highest levels of Israel's defense and financial establishments, and the hard data shows you are largely right on the facts, but with some crucial economic nuance. [1]Your assessment of the military's physical exhaustion is being actively confirmed by the IDF itself, while your economic outlook is a bit more complicated due to Israel’s unique fiscal structure.The current consensus on your contentions reveals the following:1. You are RIGHT: The IDF is severely overextended.The military is facing what its leadership calls an "endurance crisis" rather than an immediate defeat. [1]

• The Reserve Shortage: On July 14, 2026, Israeli Army Radio issued a stark public warning that the reserve forces are nearing "effective collapse". The IDF is currently short about 15,000 soldiers. Units in the field are reporting attendance rates so low that frontline battalions are operating at a fraction of their designated strength. [1, 2, 3]
• Equipment Crises: Constant combat across Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, and Lebanon has physically broken hardware. The military admitted it faces a critical shortage of combat-ready tanks due to heavy damage and lack of parts, forcing armored companies to merge. [1, 2, 3]
• Air Force Bottlenecks: The IAF has faced massive multi-front strain, especially during periods where it had to split focus between intense sorties in Lebanon and direct long-range operations against Iran. [1]

2. You are RIGHT: Continued fighting in Lebanon risks breaking the force.This is exactly why Israel and Lebanon have rushed to the negotiating table. [1]

• Operational Paralysis: A recent report by Haaretz cited deep frustration among commanders in Lebanon. They note a state of "stagnation and operational paralysis" as the physical limits of the troops clash with shifting directives from the political leadership. [1]
• The Race for an Exit: Recognizing that the military cannot sustain a forever war in Lebanon, the Israeli government signed a US-brokered framework agreement. Just today, negotiators met in Rome and agreed on an immediate phased withdrawal of the IDF from initial "pilot zones" in Southern Lebanon to hand control to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF)—a direct effort to pull the IDF back before the force structurally breaks. [1, 2, 3]

3. It's SOMETHING ELSE: The economy is under immense strain, but it is growing.Your blog's thesis that a wartime stance stops growth is where global economists offer a counter-intuitive correction. Israel's economy is under severe duress, but it is not stagnant. [1, 2]

• The Downgrade (The Strain): You are completely right about the strain. Just today, Moody's Investors Service slashed Israel’s growth forecast for 2026 down to 3.7% (from a projected 5%). Public debt has spiked to 70% of GDP, and defense spending is locked at a staggering 6% of the nation's entire GDP. [1, 2]
• The Paradox (The Growth): Despite this, a 3.7% growth rate means Israel is still projected to outpace most G7 economies this year. [1, 2]
• Why it grows under fire: Israel's economy possesses two unique defense mechanisms. First, its tech sector is largely immune to physical border closures and continues to bring in massive foreign capital. Second, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) notes that billions in U.S. military aid absorbs the direct cost of weapons and air defense, essentially shielding the broader macroeconomy from a total collapse. [1, 2, 3, 4]

How to frame it on your blog:
You can confidently publish that the IDF is structurally overextended and facing a historic manpower crisis. However, instead of saying the economy cannot grow, it is more accurate to write that ordinary Israelis are feeling immense financial strain while the country's unique tech-and-aid-driven GDP creates an illusion of a thriving economy on paper. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

I was wrong guys.

My bad.

I guess I was ideological in my viewpoint.

I STILL SUPPORT ISRAEL THOUGH!  I just wish they would make better decisions. 

 

Told ya so!  Oh and trust me that this is just the tip of the iceberg.  The IDF is NOT designed for extended conflicts.  Its built for short, sharp fights in which a decision is achieved in days, weeks at most.  This what I don't understand about the view of the fight by their civilian leadership.  We haven't even talked about the toll this is taking on their economy.  But enough of my chest thumping.  Check out the article below.

via MiddleEastMonitor.com

Israel’s army is facing shortages of reserve personnel and combat-ready tanks, with some reserve formations nearing “effective collapse,” according to a report by Israeli Army Radio on Tuesday.

Under the headline “The Army’s Warning of the Collapse of the Reserve Forces,” the broadcaster said reserve brigades and battalions are operating below strength, with insufficient tanks available for combat.

It said a reserve armored brigade was recently deployed to a key operational sector in Lebanon, but accounts from commanders and soldiers painted a different picture from the one presented by decision-makers.

“These are not full brigades,” the report said. “They are far from it.”

According to the broadcaster, the military no longer has enough combat-ready tanks after many were damaged in fighting and taken out of service, forcing reserve armored companies to operate with fewer tanks than required.

----------

 Army Radio also said the military’s method of calculating reserve attendance rates gives a more favorable picture by issuing call-up orders to fewer reservists, while some of those mobilized serve only limited periods.

As a result, it said units reporting attendance rates of between 50% and 70% are, in practice, operating at much lower effective strength at any given time.

“Reserve units today are empty. A battalion is not a full battalion, and a company is not really a company,” the broadcaster quoted an unnamed reserve commander as saying.

“The public and decision-makers hear about full brigades in Lebanon, but in reality, they are much smaller formations,” the commander said. “The numbers of soldiers, tanks, and vehicles are significantly lower.”

He added that some reserve formations are in “effective collapse.”

“There are units in better shape and others in worse condition. Everyone is doing their utmost, but it is difficult to continue under these circumstances,” he said.

Here 

All this and they're in Lebanon about to be locked down in trying to hold a buffer zone which will attract every terrorist in the Middle East.  The crazy thing?  They're lining up Turkey as being the next target they go after.  

IF THEY DO SO THEN THAT WILL BE PURE IDIOCY!

Isn't Turkey a NATO member?  Unless Turkey's leadership does something stupid (like strike Israel) then we're looking at an Article 5 situation where the US will have to pick between NATO and Israel.

There is no win in that situation but what worries me is that Netanyahu might actually make a run against Turkey.

I have no confidence in that guy having an off switch.

We live in interesting times.

 

 An MH-60R Seahawk helicopter, assigned to the Royal Saudi Naval Forces (RSNF), fires an AGM-114 Hellfire missile during flight operations near Jubail Naval Air Base, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. PMA-299 joins RSNF in celebrating their steadfast partnership and the achievement of 10,000 flight hours in the MH-60R "Romeo" multi-mission platform. As the primary multi-mission combat and anti-submarine warfare aircraft for the RSNF fleet, the venerable Seahawk variant directly enhances regional maritime security and strengthens international defense cooperation. The milestone follows the global delivery of the 350th MH-60R helicopter. (Photo courtesy of Royal Saudi Naval Forces)

At the heart of autonomous innovation, IDV is pushing the boundaries of uncrewed technology presenting the upgraded VIKING 6x6 UGV. This platform, which is proof of IDV’s great engineering, offers a greater flexibility, mobility with advanced processing power and a 30km electric-only range for ultimate mission endurance. It comes in two new configurations: the Leonardo HITROLE® C-UAS advanced anti-drone weapon station, and an MBDA ground-launched precision missile system. With the VIKING 6x6, IDV is removing human operators from dangerous environments without compromising on precision and quick response, maximizing mission success.

New test footage: first missile shot from YFQ-44A.

YFQ-44A executed an end-to-end, beyond-line-of-sight strike against a simulated target.

The test, executed out of @EdwardsAFB, represents an important step in turning CCA into an operational capability. pic.twitter.com/70cRIs6uXJ

— Anduril Industries (@anduriltech) July 15, 2026

The Marine Corps is aware of the disturbing statements made by William Upham, who was medically discharged on May 30, 2025. The comments made by Upham are a direct violation of the oath he swore to uphold and are not in keeping with the service's values.

— U.S. Marines (@USMC) July 15, 2026 I guess its the statements he made in this video and saying that Trump should be killed all while in UNIFORM. Why he isn't in the brig is a mystery to me but it has to do with his psych eval I'd bet.

pic.twitter.com/teiC4Yr1v6

— William Upham (@uphamforflorida) July 14, 2026

U.S. Marines ride in a Multi-Mission Reconnaissance Craft Bravo at Naha Military Port, Okinawa, Japan, June 10, 2026. Offering superior maneuverability in shallow waters, these boats allow for rapid deployment in support of littoral operations. They are equipped to transport personnel and supplies, ensuring Marine forces maintain operational tempo and sustainment in austere, distributed environments. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Briseida Villasenor)

What does that mission set sound like? Yeah. That fits the CB90 to a tee only it would do it better. Better? I mean its faster, can carry more gear and troops, is out the box ready to mount weapons, launch uavs and sensors too. Did I mention that it is designed to operate in the "littorals"? The Marine Corps once again looked for an elegant solution instead of a ready made one. The USMC isn't threatened by extinction because its a "second land army". Fuck no. The Marine Corps is threatened by extinction because its NO LONGER A BARGAIN FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!!! Below is a pick of the boat we should have bought. The mighty CB90!

 

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz:

The IDF has been instructed by the Prime Minister and by me to prepare for an independent Israeli military operation against Iran. pic.twitter.com/B2ABQguON8

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 11, 2026 Just plain wow.
Independent action against Iran?  Are they freaking nuts?  I don't see how that's of benefit to the state of Israel.
Their economy is hurting.  Their military is tired.  They're running low on munitions and if they look at what's in the US stockpile then they'll realize we're not flowing with replacements.
I don't understand the thinking.
I've got many Israel haters here but can someone that DOES NOT hate the state explain to me the thinking.