Agrégateur de flux

La Frégate de premier rang Provence a été livrée à la Marine nationale.

Le vendredi 12 juin 2015, la frégate multi-missions (FREMM) Provence est devenue la propriété de la Marine nationale. La frégate Provence est la quatrième FREMM réalisée par le site DCNS de Lorient et la seconde destinée à la marine nationale après l’Aquitaine livrée en 2012.

Mise à l’eau en septembre 2013, la frégate Provence a débuté ses essais en mer en octobre 2014. Arrivée à Brest le 12 juin 2015, elle continuera ses essais à la mer en vue de son admission au service actif, courant 2016. Elle remplace à Brest l’ex-Normandie, qui a été vendue à l’Égypte. Cette dernière est en cours de transformation à Lorient en vue d’une livraison cet été à son nouveau propriétaire. Il faudra donc attendre 2016 et la livraison de la Languedoc pour voir une première frégate multi-missions basée en Méditerranée. Afin de compenser cette cession, la DCNS va accélérer sa cadence de production pour permettre à la flotte française de disposer comme prévu de six FREMM d’ici 2019.
En moins de dix ans, le nombre de FREMM est passé de dix-sept à huit seulement, soit moins de 50% du format prévu au départ. À l’origine le programme franco-italien FREMM lancé en 2005 prévoyait dix-sept frégates pour la Marine nationale et dix autres pour la Marina militare. Seuls les italiens se sont tenus aux objectifs initiaux. La France quant à elle n’a cessé de sabrer ce programme, qui avait pour but de remplacer par une classe unique les neuf frégates anti-sous-marines de types F67 et F70, ainsi que les neuf avisos du type A69.
Déjà en 2005, la Marine nationale perdait la troisième et la quatrième frégate de la classe Horizon prévues pour remplacer les Cassard et Jean-Bart, compensées par une version antiaérienne de la FREMM. La première coupe franche intervient avec le Livre Blanc de 2008, réduisant le nombre de frégates de premier rang de vingt-quatre à dix-huit en y intégrant les cinq frégates de type La Fayette classées depuis leurs mises en service en frégates de deuxième rang. Quant au nombre de FREMM il est ramené à seulement onze frégates, avec l’abandon des neuf exemplaires de la version Action Vers la Terre (AVT) qui devaient succéder aux avisos. Le Livre blanc de 2013 entérine sur la série des onze FREMM la réalisation de deux bâtiments dotés de capacités antiaériennes renforcées. Les FREMM de Défense Aérienne (DA) remplaceront les Cassard et Jean Bart. Dans le même temps, le nombre de frégates de premier rang passent de dix-huit à quinze. En juin 2013, Jean-Yves Le Drian annonce le projet de la réalisation de Frégates de Taille Intermédiaire (FTI), destinées à succéder aux Frégates de type La Fayette (FLF). Pour les FREMM, la cadence de production est une nouvelle fois revue à la baisse, une unité tous les douze mois, le sort des trois dernières devait être officiellement tranché en 2016. Pour que le projet FTI bénéficie d’économies d’échelle, il faut au minimum une commande de quatre bateaux, ce sera finalement cinq frégates, le ministre de la défense, Jean-Yves Le Drian, décide d’anticiper de deux ans la construction des FTI.
Les huit premières FREMM devraient s’appeler, dans l’ordre : Aquitaine (2012), Normandie (2014), Provence (2015), Languedoc (2016), Auvergne (2016), Alsace (2017), Bretagne (2018), et Lorraine (2019). Les noms des FREMM 9, 10 et 11, qui devaient rejoindre la marine en 2020, 2021 et 2022, n’avaient pas encore été choisis. Les frégates 1, 2, 7, 8 et 9 devaient être basées à Brest, les frégates 3, 4, 5, 6, 10 et 11 devaient rejoindre Toulon.

From 16 to 18 June 2015, the European Defence Agency (EDA) together with the Czech National Security Authority (NBU) organised an exercise for Comprehensive and Strategic Decision Making on Cyber Security and Defence in Prague. The exercise was opened with keynote speeches from the Director of the NBU, Mr Dušan Navrátil and the Estonian Ambassador to the Czech Republic, H.E. Mr. Sten Schwede. The Estonian Ambassador to NATO, H.E. Mr. Lauri Lepik, visited the exercise on 17 June.

The exercise execution was supported by the Estonian based European Cyber Security Initiative (ECSI), a Non-Governmental Organisation aiming at improving cyber security across Europe, as well as representatives from the Estonian and Portuguese governments, the EU Military Staff and CERT-EU.

The tabletop exercise aimed at training senior decision makers from the public and private sectors to comprehensively deal with complex cyber attack scenarios. The methodological concept of the exercise, that refers back to an Estonian initiative, was initially piloted with the Portuguese government in May 2014. The exercise in Prague served as a first proof-of-concept. In total 57 representatives from the Czech government, the Czech private sector and observers from Austria, Estonia, Slovakia, ENISA and CCD COE participated. 

Participants expressed their appreciation of the exercise in general. In particular they valued the realistic scenario and concept as well as the pragmatism in transferring a complex issue into a coherent training concept. They also agreed that the exercise addressed an existing gap in the training and exercise landscape. 

A second proof-of-concept exercise will be organised with the Austrian government in September 2015 in Vienna

 

More Information:

• Website Czech National Security Agency
• Cyber defence capability programme overview
  
  

I’ve fallen behind on reprinting my Oxford Analytica briefs. Here’s one from late January, on US-Russian competition in arms sales. This version is slightly different from the originally published version, in that I have restored some material cut due to space constraints.

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SIGNIFICANCE: India is the world’s largest arms importer and its primary suppliers are Russia and the United States. Although the two suppliers largely sell their weapons to different customers globally, Russian efforts to expand to new markets to compensate for declining sales to traditional partners will lead to increased competition with the United States in many parts of the world.

ANALYSIS: Impacts

• The most likely new markets for Russian arms sales include South America, South-east Asia, Egypt and Pakistan.
• Russian competition with the United States in arms sales will be limited to a small number of countries.
• Defence firms offering technology transfers will have an edge in the Indian market.
• For decades, Russia and the United States have been the largest arms exporters in the world. From 2009 to 2013, Russia accounted for 27% of total world arms sales, while the United States was just ahead with 29%.
• Russian arms sales have been highly dependent on a few major customers, with India, China and Algeria accounting for over 60% of Russian purchases in the last five years.
• US arms sales are far more diversified, with the top three customers (Australia, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates) accounting for under 30% of total sales.

Shifting markets for Russia

The main targets of Russian weapon sales have been shifting:

China

Sales to China have declined as Beijing pursues a programme of domestic manufacturing of advanced weaponry. Many Chinese designs appear to be based on reverse-engineered Russian imports, particularly in fighter aircraft.

Europe and the Middle East

Russia has already lost other markets in Europe where many former Warsaw Pact countries are shifting to NATO equipment. Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa have halted major sales to Libya and Syria.

India

Russian military industry is also worried about potential declines in purchases by India, its leading customer. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported that between 2009 and 2013 Russia supplied 75% of weapons imported by India. However, serious delays and cost overruns on major contracts, such as aircraft carrier Vikramaditya to India and Il-76 transport aircraft to China, have dented Russia’s reputation as a reliable partner for India.

As a result, Delhi has sought to diversify its arms purchases. India chose French Rafale fighters in its multi-billion dollar Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) fighter tender and purchased helicopters and transport aircraft, as well as ASW aircraft, from the United States. India chose the American C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft over Russia’s Il-76 plane. Moreover, India is looking to be 75% self-reliant in defence production by 2020-25, which is likely to result in declines in foreign arms purchases from both Russia and the United States.

New markets

Russia is actively seeking to expand its arms sales in South-east Asia, particularly Indonesia and Vietnam. Both are looking towards naval expansion and have in recent years bought aircraft, combat ships and infantry fighting vehicles from Russia. It is also seeking to sell diesel submarines to Thailand and has signed a deal to supply transport helicopters to Pakistan.

Besides Asia, Russia has been actively looking for new customers for its arms in the Middle East. Russia has recently concluded significant contracts with Iraq for helicopters and air defence systems worth 4 billion dollars and Egypt for air defence systems worth 2 billion dollars. Negotiations are also under way for coastal defence systems, attack helicopters and MiG-35 fighter aircraft. Ten years after being forced out of the Iraq market by the US invasion, Russia has once again become a major supplier of air defence systems and helicopters to that country.

It has also signed an agreement expanding military cooperation with Iran, with officials discussing the possibility of restoring the agreement to sell S-300 air defence systems with a possible upgrade to the more advanced S-400 system. Such sales would not violate the existing international sanctions regime.

In Latin America, Russia has long had a reliable customer in Venezuela, which has in recent years bought missiles, tanks and armored vehicles from Russia. Russia is looking for new markets in the region and is hopeful of selling fighter aircraft to Brazil and Argentina. Russia has sold air defence systems to Brazil and hopes to develop a defence industrial partnership that might parallel its military cooperation with India.

Russian competition with the United States

Russia mostly seeks to sell arms to countries that are not able or interested in buying US weapons, either because the customer states are not partners of the United States or because the products are too expensive. Iran, Venezuela and China are not likely to become areas for competition in US-Russian arms sales. Egypt has turned to Russia in recent years because of a deterioration in relations with the United States in the aftermath of the 2013 military coup. Many African and South-east Asian countries choose Russian arms when they cannot afford US-made versions.

India, a large unaligned country with a high level of military expenditures, is an attractive target for defense companies from both countries. Russia is also hoping to make inroads into Brazil and Argentina, two countries that have traditionally bought the majority of their weapons from the United States and its NATO allies.

The sectors in which Russian weapons systems are considered equal or superior to Western equivalents include: air defence, fighter aircraft, helicopters, submarines and cruise missiles. These are the sectors in which Russia’s defence industry can compete with the most advanced Western suppliers, with weapons such as the S-300 air defence system, the Su-35 fighter jets and the Kilo class submarine being noteworthy. In other sectors, such as transport aircraft, drones, surface ships, tanks and armoured vehicles, the quality of Russian products is significantly inferior to that of the United States, and Russian exporters compete primarily on price.

US strategy.

International arms sales can offset reductions in US defence spending, helping to keep the US defence industrial base healthy. Arms sales also fit with the Obama administration’s goal of strengthening allies and partners so they can provide more security for themselves without relying on US support. The US government has revised its export control system and is trying to streamline the Arms Export Control Act to make arms transfers simpler.

The combination of high-level policymaker attention, steady reforms and a volatile international security environment has resulted in an increase in US arms sales, thereby accelerating the competition with Russia.

In fiscal year 2014, US arms sales worldwide totaled 34 billion dollars, up 4 billion dollars from the previous year and about three times greater than the pre-2006 average. By contrast, President Vladimir Putin yesterday announced that in 2014 Russia sold more than 15 billion dollars-worth of arms and that new signed orders stood at around 14 billion dollars.

Outlook.

The United States continues to dominate the defence trade with its traditional partners such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Japan. Yet it remains committed to maintaining or expanding ties to countries that Russia is also courting, such as Brazil, Argentina, India, Indonesia, Egypt and Pakistan.

In 2014, the United States and India agreed to identify co-development and co-production opportunities as part of the US-India Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI). Industry sources report that surveillance UAVs may be the first batch of products sold.

Since these products would be of particular use to India, especially in patrolling disputed areas with Pakistan, the United States may expect to see greater competition with Israel, a major drone manufacturer, shifting the Indian market towards higher-end products, and perhaps leaving fewer areas in which the main competition is with Russia.

CONCLUSION: The Russian and US defence sectors will push for greater exports to offset constraints in the defence budgets of their own governments. India, with growing expenditures and skepticism about Russia’s reliability, appears to be opening further to the United States. Competition between the two manufacturers will also be seen in Latin America and South-east Asia, where the US ‘Asia pivot’ may help Washington win new customers.

La défaite de Napoléon le 18 juin 1815 a ouvert une longue période sans grandes guerres en Europe. N'y avait-il vraiment rien à commémorer, même pour les Français?