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Diplomacy & Crisis News

Rubio Snubs G-20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in South Africa

Foreign Policy - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 23:32
The secretary of state’s absence reflects deteriorating U.S.-South Africa relations as well as the Trump administration’s disdain for global institutions.

Trump’s Europe Shock Creates an Opening for China

Foreign Policy - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 22:54
Beijing could provide an economic lifeline as EU countries increase defense spending and weather tariffs.

A Grand Bargain With Russia Would Be a Disaster

Foreign Policy - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 18:20
Trump thinks he can follow in Nixon’s footsteps.

Germany’s New 1990s Chancellor

Foreign Policy - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 16:29
The fall and rise of Friedrich Merz.

It’s Time for Syria’s Kurds to Fold

Foreign Policy - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 15:26
Kurdish autonomy is a problem that today’s Syria can’t afford.

Sudan’s Army Is Part of the Problem, Not the Solution

Foreign Policy - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 14:40
The SAF is not a defender of democracy, and the activists joining its ranks are doing so out of necessity rather than ideology.

The AI Economy’s Massive Vulnerability

Foreign Policy - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 12:00
Subsea cables channel data and power, but they face escalating risks.

Musk Is Still a Courtier

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 06:00
The mogul’s influence is unprecedented, but Trump remains in charge.

The Real China Trump Card

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 06:00
The hawk’s case against decoupling.

In Germany, the Center Can Hold

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 20/02/2025 - 06:00
But only a grand coalition can foster stability and fend off the far right.

Trump Trades Barbs With Zelensky

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 23:46
The two leaders’ war of words has triggered a breakdown in U.S.-Ukraine relations.

Trump, Zelensky Escalate War of Words Over Russia

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 23:46
The U.S. president is parroting Kremlin propaganda, signaling a major breakdown in U.S.-Ukraine relations.

Jack Ma Is Back, but Beijing Is in Control

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 22:47
Alibaba is trying to reshape itself to match Xi Jinping’s ambitions.

The Mood on the Front Line, Three Years On

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 22:07
Ukrainian troops watch with anxiety as the United States moves closer to talks with Russia over the war.

The New Meaning of ‘Munich’

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 21:04
After J.D. Vance’s bizarre speech, a word synonymous with appeasement may now signal the voluntary surrender of global hegemony.

Why Early Elections in Ukraine Pave the Way for Putin

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 20:28
Forcing a change in power is a familiar ploy from the Russian playbook.

What Vladimir Putin Wants From The Ukraine Peace Talks

The National Interest - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 20:00
Topic: Geopolitics Blog Brand: The Buzz Region: Eurasia Tags: Crimea, Peace Talks, Russia, Ukraine War, and Vladimir Putin What Vladimir Putin Wants From The Ukraine Peace Talks February 19, 2025 By: Stavros Atlamazoglou Share Essentially, the Kremlin seeks to officialize its military gains in Ukraine through international recognition. 

Peace talks about ending the war in Ukraine are underway between the United States and Russia in Saudi Arabia. For the first time in many months, there seems to be a true momentum for negotiations that could end the war.

But what should America make of the Russian demands? Russia, after all, is the aggressor. It is the one who commenced this war by invading its neighbor on February 24, 2022. Almost three years since the large-scale war began, what is the Russian leadership seeking to get out of a potential peace settlement that it could not achieve through three years of bloodshed?

The Russian Position

“The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations,” the Institute for the Study of War stated in its latest operational update on the war in Ukraine.

Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations Vasily Nebenzya expressed some extreme positions during a UN Security Council meeting on Monday. Specifically, the Russian official stressed that Ukraine has irrevocably lost the Crimean Peninsula, as well as the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson Oblasts.  

Essentially, the Kremlin seeks to officialize its war gains through international recognition. Specifically, it seeks to legitimize the land bridge that connects Russia with the Crimean Peninsula, which was one of the main objectives of the Russian military during the initial invasion. In addition, the Kremlin seeks to make its hold over the Crimean Peninsula—achieved in 2014 through a covert invasion and a sham “referendum” in which 97 percent supported annexation by Russia—official in the eyes of the world.

As a reminder, Crimea was the reason that Russia’s war on Ukraine began in the first place. In 2014, following Russia’s takeover of the peninsula—aided by the “little green men,” later revealed to be Russian soldiers without uniforms or insignia—conventional Russian military units flooded the Peninsula on the pretext of stability operations. Similar units’ entry into the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk on February 21, 2022 helped provide a justification for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three days later.

The Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting Putin’s previous demands and information operations aimed at delegitimizing Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West — notably ahead of the February 18 Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia,” the Institute for the Study of War added.

Russia Wants Ukraine’s Annihilation

Russian President Vladimir Putin does not want Ukraine to continue to exist. In 2021, the Russian president wrote a long essay, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” detailing the centuries-long bonds between the Russian and Ukrainian people. Putin’s central thesis was that Ukraine had always belonged to Russia, and Ukrainians were Russian. Consequently, the independence of Ukraine from Russia was a historical mistake that needed to be corrected—a process that Putin undertook in February 2022.

For this reason, any “peace settlement” that fails to provide Ukraine with the means to defend itself is a guarantee of future war. Like a hungry wolf looking for his next prey, Putin will come back to get the rest of Ukraine at the earliest opportunity.  

Fortunately, it is unlikely that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will agree to such terms. The Ukrainian military and people have fought hard and paid a bitter price to liberate their territory from the Russian yoke. 

Although it is true that the Ukrainian forces are exhausted and currently lack the means necessary to achieve an operational breakthrough on the battlefield so as to strengthen the Ukrainian negotiating position, it is hard to imagine Zelensky agreeing to humiliating terms—particularly as the Russian forces are barely in a better position on the battlefield than the Ukrainians are.

About the Author: Stavros Atlamazoglou  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP

Image: Shutterstock. 

The post What Vladimir Putin Wants From The Ukraine Peace Talks appeared first on The National Interest.

Vance Has ‘Got a Point’

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 18:40
Austrian Chancellor Alexander Schallenberg on the U.S. vice president’s now-infamous Munich speech—among other things.

Why Trump Is Wrong About Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Foreign Policy - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 18:26
Setting the record straight on who started the war.

…Corrupts Absolutely

Foreign Policy Blogs - Wed, 19/02/2025 - 17:01

The unlayering of systemic Government institutions has been the trend since the beginning of 2025, and it does not look like it will be prevented anytime soon. While the focus is coming from the new United States Administration, its actions threatening tariffs in response to security issues has opened up other national Governments to scrutiny from the US and from their own local communities. Actions taken by the previous administration has also come under fire as the mass audit of US Government rapidly takes hold.

Local investigations into funding and activities coming from within the US itself has shown some actions that were expected, some that seem absurd, and others that likely cross the line into criminality. While the auditors have been met with push back, it is not uncommon for auditors to be outsiders that possess a specific skill, as opposed to a direct agent of the Government it is auditing. The value of discovery in the process has already uncovered funding to some serious violations of the rights of American citizens, and support that would be considered as adding American liability towards conflict against allied nations. The internal reform looks to be as assertive as the Brazilian Judiciary’s push against all members of its Government and Opposition via the Lava Jato Scandal, one that was temporarily successful until the old Government was elected back into power in Brazil.

Pushing tariff’s on US trade allies seems to also follow issues surrounding safety, as opposed to being an issue involving trade policy directly. The pressure placed on US allies resulted in some agreements to increase border security and actions preventing US adversaries from taking root in Western security interests in the US sphere of influence. The admission of issues that hurt both local citizens and American citizens often did not come to light in many cases, only peeling back the layers once the US tied its trade threats to security issues, ones that in reality are to the benefit of citizens in both countries. Systemic corruption simply erodes local Governments and communities, and the United States looks to be refusing the further degradation of its allies on its borders and in the region.

Actions to address hidden abuses in other allied countries may also become a focus of US policy interests in the near future. While some Governments seem to be trending in a similar direction, notable abuses within allied countries have to come to light if the US can trust their closest relationships. The motivation for US officials would come from a moral imperative, actions that would act in the benefit of those citizens affected by the abuse in allied countries. Classic Western justice and values need to re-possess the legal and moral systemic processes of these nations, and if foreign principles can assist their justice systems, it should be welcomed by the majority of citizens in allied countries. Considering corruption is almost impossible to remove once it takes hold, any small opportunity to reduce it or remove it requires direct and immediate action.

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