You are here

Diplomacy & Crisis News

Myanmar Is Fragmenting—but Not Falling Apart

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 31/05/2024 - 06:00
Why outside actors should work more closely with nonstate groups.

Ukraine’s Perilous Path to EU Membership

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 30/05/2024 - 06:00
How to expand Europe without destabilizing it.

The Shallow Roots of Iran’s War With Israel

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 29/05/2024 - 06:00
Beneath Tehran’s extremism, a lost history of deep Iranian-Jewish ties.

How Ukraine Can Do More With Less

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 29/05/2024 - 06:00
A military strategy to outlast Russia.

China’s Quixotic Quest to Innovate

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 29/05/2024 - 06:00
A statist economy can't foster creativity.

Vardanyan must be behind bars

Foreign Policy Blogs - Tue, 28/05/2024 - 17:54

Ruben Vardanyan, an Armenian businessman, and former Minister of State of the Karabakh region is sitting in an Azerbaijani prison, where a trial is underway against him in Azerbaijan.  He also faces charges from the state of Ukraine since he was arrested on the Azerbaijani-Armenian border. Some people are not familiar with Vardanyan’s political and criminal actions and therefore do not understand why a man who is considered a philanthropist, a politician who returned to his native country and shows concern for his people is sitting in prison under conditions that can be difficult. But Vardanyan deserves a long prison term for the actions he did when he roamed the earth freely.  

In his youth, Vardanyan studied economics and even served in the Soviet army in the regions of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Vardanyan is Armenian by origin but lived for many years in Russia. After graduating, Vardanyan slowly began to enter the field of financial investments. But Vardanyan was not satisfied with his money and began to profit illegally from trading and investing in the capital market, or using less official language – he began to launder money.

It is important to note that today Vadanyan’s business companies (or those owned or managed by him in the past) are subject to Western economic sanctions. This is how Vardanyan managed to get rich at a very high level until eventually, he entered Russian politics. He was involved mainly in government financial management committees (it’s not just junior committees, but committees that affect the Russian economy) and the Russian Industrialists’ forum. With the help of Vardanyan’s fortune, he was able to advance in his public positions in Russia, until finally, he was able to enter the limited circle of close associates of the President of Russia – Vladimir Putin.

Vardanyan is considered one of the richest people in Russia and his money has done Putin a great service. With the help of Vardanyan’s huge fortune, he used to take care of laundering money for Putin and his close people, according to their demands and needs. Money laundering was so associated with him that Vardanyan’s nickname became “Putin’s wallet”, indicating the huge amount of money that passed between these two men.  

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which caused the beginning of Western pressure on Russia and Putin’s regime, Vardanyan realized that it was not safe for him to stay in Russia, so he left the country where he became rich and renounced his Russian citizenship. The reason for this is a move to escape the Western sanctions imposed on the senior officials of the Russian regime after the invasion of Ukraine.

Vardanyan is probably the oligarch with the most luck, or with good friends in the West because most of the oligarchs and rich people who renounced their Russian citizenship and fled Russia after the war started lost their assets, businesses, and bank accounts connected to the land of Russia. The reason for this is of course the Western sanctions designed to delay and slow down Putin’s men.

Ruben Vardanyan kept his fortune from the West. After escaping from Russia he returned to his homeland Armenia and after declaring many times over the years that he had no political ambitions, he entered Armenian politics. On top of that, he even declared a dream to run for the country’s presidency. Vardanyan was appointed Minister of State in the separatist government in Karabakh, although his only connection to the politically and sovereignly disputed land is the fact that Vardanyan is of Armenian descent and holds Armenian citizenship. Later the motive for this political move was discovered, and it is the Kremlin from Moscow. Vardanyan was sent to Armenia to be Putin’s Russian branch in the region, to direct Armenia’s political policy to Putin’s needs.  

As mentioned, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West imposed economic sanctions against Putin’s Russian regime, including blocking trade routes of essential products which also include weapons. Therefore, Russia had to find a way to transfer to its territory the weapons products it needed for the war, without being exposed to the eyes of the West. For this, Vardanyan was sent to Armenia, which turns out to be a major exporter of essential chips for advanced weapons, exactly what Russia lacked after the imposition of sanctions.

It seems that Vardanyan has entered with all his might into the Russian-Iranian-Armenian axis, where he works behind the scenes for his master in the Kremlin. Iran supplies Russia with suicide drones, Armenia supplies Russia with essential chips for advanced weapons, and transports through its territory the weapons that the Iranians send to Russia. Without Vardanyan, this entire logistical system would not exist and work as efficiently as it does these days. Vardanyan has an active part in the destruction that is happening to Ukraine and its citizens Since the Russian invasion, Vardanyan has faced accusations in Ukraine and the state institutions want him to be in prison for his actions against the country.

But Vardanyan was actually arrested by the Azerbaijani military forces at the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia after he tried to escape from Karabakh to the territory of sovereign Armenia. Azerbaijan accuses Vardanyan of sabotaging the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, crossing the border illegally, financing terrorism and personally dealing with Armenian terrorism directed towards Azerbaijan.

According to evidence, Vardanyan used to cross the border of Karabakh (the province is considered Azerbaijani territory from an international legal point of view) illegally to supply separatist gangs with money and ammunition to be used against the Azerbaijani army. The amount of weapons that the Armenian separatists received from Vardanyan is so great that to this day they continue to find the weapons he donated to them. Vardanyan never denied these claims, and even more so. More than once Vardanyan has been caught threatening the Azerbaijani government, asserting the rights of the Armenians and presenting views that even Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claims are extreme.

Vardanyan openly glorified the Armenian terrorists who carried out Operation Nemesis, in which many senior Azerbaijani officials were murdered, and also threatened: “Anything can happen to the government of Azerbaijan.” As mentioned, Vardanyan served as Minister of State of the separatist government in Karabakh, but four months after his appointment in Armenia they gave in to the Azerbaijani demand to fire him. The demand was part of Azerbaijan’s list of demands to end the siege of the Armenian enclave in Karabakh, so he was dismissed from his post but vowed to remain living and working in the region.    

Vardanyan is a dangerous man, extremist in his nationalist views, funds terrorism, belongs to the circle of dark people, you can call him “one of the enemies of the West” and a financial criminal in addition to everything. This is a man the people of the world should be glad is behind bars, where he should stay.

 

South Africa’s High-Stakes, Low-Impact Election

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 28/05/2024 - 06:00
An end to the ANC’s 30-year reign won’t change the country.

Modi’s Middling Economy

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 28/05/2024 - 06:00
Inequality, unemployment, and slow growth hold India back.

A Reset for America and Mexico?

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 27/05/2024 - 06:00
What new leadership—possibly in both countries—​might mean for cooperation.

An “America First” World

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 27/05/2024 - 06:00
What Trump’s return might mean for global order.

The Silent War: Unmasking Havana Syndrome and the Spread of AHIs

Foreign Policy Blogs - Wed, 22/05/2024 - 19:37

 

In 2017, the Russia-based Institute for Prospective Military Studies dedicated its annual award to a military engineer for designing a “non-lethal acoustic weapon suitable for use in urban combat.” This engineer was also a high-ranking member of Russia’s main intelligence directorate, the GRU, specifically its clandestine sabotage and assassination unit 29155. Following this accolade, President Putin promoted this individual as his representative in a Far Eastern province, a rare honor generally reserved for agents after they achieve a major “success” in kinetic covert operations. Putin originally founded the Institute for Prospective Military Studies in 2013 to develop “weapons based on new physical properties including ray weapons and wave weapons.” Within a couple of years, American diplomatic, military, and intelligence officials started falling ill under mysterious circumstances at home and abroad.

Most people know this phenomenon as Havana Syndrome, scientifically termed anomalous health incidents (AHIs). The issue first entered the spotlight in 2016 when CIA personnel stationed in America’s embassy in Havana started reporting intense headaches, ringing in the ears, and fatigue. Since then, over 1,000 incidents have emerged on every continent. In addition to the aforementioned symptoms, victims have suffered dizziness, vertigo, nausea, and cognitive difficulties, with some experiencing rare cancers, heart conditions, and, unfortunately, death.

Conclusive evidence has never emerged, and possible explanations have ranged from work-related duress to mass psychogenic illness (Epidemic hysteria) or even the sounds made by crickets. At a recent congressional hearing on AHIs, however, one of the witnesses noted their study indicated at least 68 of the incidents cannot be explained by pre-existing conditions or psychosomatic symptoms. They affirmed that the aggregate scientific, intelligence, and medical evidence substantiates claims that these AHIs are the result of a foreign adversary. More specifically, the reported symptoms are consistent with “wave weapons.” As the witnesses see it, Russia is this foreign adversary.

Russia has a long-running R&D program on acoustic and electromagnetic directed-energy emission devices used for lethal and non-lethal purposes. During the Moscow Signal incident of the Cold War, around 350 American embassy employees in Moscow experienced symptoms similar to those today between 1953 and 1976. While most information regarding AHIs remains strictly confidential, declassified documents show that  Soviet intelligence aimed microwave radiation at the U.S. embassy, detected through frequency bands.

The recent congressional testimonies by individuals with top-secret security clearances suggest a similar pattern of events today. They charge that high-powered microwave systems are bathing the living quarters of American officials to gradually induce auditory and sensory-motor impairments. Such methods are covert and leave little trace. The last two years have shown that Russia possesses the means and, more importantly, the motives to pursue such acts. Additionally, there is more evidence than just the Institute for Prospective Military Studies.

One witness mentioned a medical research facility in Saint Petersburg with recorded links to unit 29155. This facility also happens to research the consequences of ultra and infrasound frequencies on the brain. Given its sustained communication with military scientists, unit 29155 is the plausible executor if Russia is behind Havana Syndrome. The unit is known for offensive terror actions, including the Salisbury Poisonings and a series of explosions at NATO ammunition facilities throughout the 2010s. Most crucially, an AHI investigation established that members of unit 29155 were in proximity of confirmed AHI incidents on at least four occasions. Further revelations will likely follow.

While evidence points to Russia, the U.S. government’s response has left conflicting or puzzling messages to the public. According to a March 2023 report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, most intelligence agencies deem it “very unlikely” that a foreign adversary is behind AHIs. However, interviews with agency officials reveal low confidence or outright disagreement with that assessment. One of the recent congressional witnesses, who has a top-secret security clearance, said that the classified material he personally reviewed “directly contradicts” the public statements from the Executive Branch on the origins and extent of AHIs. He also said numerous agencies have withheld information from sister agencies and intentionally neglected critical evidence that would implicate a foreign adversary.

These discrepancies hint at a possible cover-up within the U.S. government, although there are legitimate reasons for deliberately withholding such information. Perhaps the government refuses to release the truth to prevent the weapon’s proliferation. While the witnesses did not divulge specific details due to classification, they did mention that the weapon is small enough to fit in a backpack. However, the revelation that certain agencies are refusing to share pertinent information with sister agencies invariably fuels conspiracy theories regarding the nefarious deep state.

Whatever the reason may be, the irresolute response by the American executive branch feels like a whitewashing for the victims and their families. Whether Russia or another adversary is responsible, they are targeting America’s best and the brightest. Most of the victims hope to return to work one day, but many will never fully recover. The lack of clarity surrounding this issue is why the recent congressional hearing was held–to shed light on AHIs and spur elected representatives to take action. Government-provided healthcare is the most evident policy option, and it is Congress’s job to ensure available funding.

As to whether a specific perpetrator will ever be identified, only time will tell.

 

 

 

Lies and Allies

Foreign Policy Blogs - Mon, 20/05/2024 - 19:37

The Soviet T-64 tank, developed and produced by the Soviet Union at one of the largest armour manufacturing facilities in the Soviet Union, in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Now most T-64s are used by Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

The renewed assault by Russian forces on the Kharkiv region of Ukraine came as a surprise to many as it was thought that the resource depletion of both Ukraine’s and Russia’s forces had dwindled the ability to take large offenses after years of fighting. The motivation for such a large assault likely came about due to many decisions that should probably not have been committed to by Ukraine allies. Weakness in the coalition supporting not only Ukraine, but US and Western allies abroad will play into actions in Eastern Europe, even if taking place completely outside of the region.

In is likely the case that Russian military resources are depleted, but the attack was committed to due to circumstances. The motivation for such a move would reflect one seen during the Second World War. In the Battle of the Bulge, German forces used many of their reserves towards the end of the war to re-conquer parts of Belgium towards the shipping port of Antwerp with Germany’s remaining military strength. Taking one of the largest ports in Western Europe would have stunted the Allies advance on Germany, even if the end victory would still have been likely in the Allies’ favour. Kharkiv is important to Ukraine and the region for many reasons, and was always a logistical prize for Russia.

Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second largest city and has historically been a central main city close to the front lines of many of the wars between the Soviet Union and Germany. During the Cold War period, Kharkiv was the base for many of the Soviet Union’s manufacturing and military industrial capabilities, producing many of the tanks currently being used on the battlefield by both Russia and Ukraine. Kharkiv is one of the main populations centres that would need to be encountered when approaching Moscow from the West, and during the Soviet era, was a strategic bulwark against foreign invasions from abroad.

One of the factors that may have encouraged a recent attack on Kharkiv and Sumy is the agreement to supply Ukraine with more advanced weapons from the US and other allies. While ATACMS had been supplied in silence towards Ukraine before any agreement was made in the US, it has been shown that assaulting a fortified Russian position has cost Ukraine many Western supplied Leopard 2 and Abrams tanks. If Russia can quickly take added territory and create barriers, they already know they will be met with some level of success in maintaining the territory, even against NATO weapons.

The use of drones, ATACAMS and long range missiles have targeted many oil and gas production facilities inside of Russia, with ATACAMS being used successfully along with anti-air assets to harass Russian forces and air capabilities. While attacks on Russian oil and gas may be an escalation that the Western allies did not want, Ukraine knows that it needs to affect Russian oil profits as there are still mechanisms where European countries and other allies are benefitting from Russian oil and gas. Despite sanctions, there is little movement in fully quelling the income Russia earns from these profits to fund their war effort. While assaults on Russian infrastructure are not the best tactic for the West or even Ukraine, the lack of de-escalatory policies limiting European use of Russian oil and gas have not been sufficient. As long as North American energy is being hamstrung to Europe and Asia, Ukraine is left on their own to implement an escalatory policy that will complicate the war and put more civilians at risk.

The lesson the US has taught its allies recently is that support may be fleeting, as limiting weapons to one ally sends a message to others. While Ukraine has received a great deal of support, putting the idea in the ether that domestic chaos may alter support for allies teaches all allies of the US to not depend on future support, even in the most dire of circumstances. Countries who are allies will always be independent and work for the betterment of their own citizens, and do not wish to take direction from abroad, only advice. The break in relations and treatment of allies as client states, as opposed to equals, is a victory for their adversaries in every sense of the word. The incentive for US adversaries to use domestic issues in the US and in the West to change foreign defence policy enables local chaos for strategic gain. Such policies create an economy and networks from abroad to alter and pressure local politicians to make decisions to weaken the West’s alliance in every region globally. The end result of making decisions in such an environment is to create weak policy, policies that give an opening to assaults like the one we see currently in the Kharkiv Oblast and surrounding regions. It is often the case that armies defeat themselves before the enemy defeats them. If weak policies dominate the alliance, there is no other outcome but more conflict and more loss of innocent lives.

Amanpour of CNN supports separatism and terrorism

Foreign Policy Blogs - Mon, 13/05/2024 - 22:17

In recent times, the media has demonstrated biased opinions. Many times the interviewer or the media body itself directs the articles it publishes or the interviews it does to show the reality according to its worldview. This is how false or inaccurate news is spread or does not really show the full picture. In the next section, we will discuss one journalist, whose worldview probably interferes with her journalistic work and causes her to distort reality in front of her viewers.

Journalist and TV presenter Christiane Amanpour inserted herself into the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict after she hosted David Vardinyan, Ruben Vardinyan’s son, in the CNN studio. Ruben Vardinyan is an Armenian billionaire and philanthropist who headed the separatist regime in Karabakh that opposed the rightful Azerbaijani control over the land. Azerbaijan accuses Vardinyan of sabotaging the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. But Vardinyan is not only accused of this accusation but also of crossing the border illegally, financing terrorism, and personally dealing with the Armenian terrorism directed towards Azerbaijan.

According to the evidence, Vardinyan used to cross the border into Karabakh illegally to provide separatist gangs with money and ammunition to use against the Azerbaijani army. The amount of weapons that the Armenian separatists received from Vardinyan is so great that to this day they continue to find the weapons he donated to them. Vardinyan never denied these claims, and even more so. More than once, Vardinyan has been caught threatening the Azerbaijani government, asserting the right of the Armenians and presenting views that even Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claims are extreme. Vardinyan openly glorified the Armenian terrorists who carried out Operation Nemesis, in which many senior level Azerbaijani officials were murdered, and also threatened: “Anything can happen to the government of Azerbaijan”.

This man is not a freedom fighter or a human rights and peace activist; this man is a terrorist financier and an illegal money launderer. But for some reason, the journalist and TV presenter on behalf of CNN, Christiane Amanpour, interviews Vardinyan’s son and presents him as a poor man, as the victim in the story and basically commits plagiarism here. According to the interview, Vardinyan is on hunger strike, and barely receives phone calls and the conditions of his prison changed for the worse when he was transferred to solitary confinement.

Even when Amanpour did mention the fact that Vardinyan Sr. is accused of financing terrorism and establishing armed groups, the question was what would happen with the quick and transparent trial he requested. I mean, the very fact that Vardinyan acted like a war criminal goes over her head, as if it were a child who stole candy from the store because he didn’t know it was forbidden. It does not correct incorrect facts that Daniel Vardinyan said, for example, that no evidence was found against him when there is an evidentiary evidence that is already published to the general public. Amanpour went so far as to make Vardinyan appear in an interview as a man persecuted for his political views rather than his criminal acts. I have no complaints against Ruben Vardinyan’s son after all any son will protect his father, but the interviewer Christiane Amanpour simply did an injustice in this interview to the truth, to journalistic integrity, and to the Azerbaijani people.

In another interview that Amanpour conducted with the Palestinian ambassador to the UN, Riyad Mansour, she once again changed the picture according to her worldview. Amanpour spoke with Mansour about the situation in Gaza after the Israel Defense Forces began a ground operation in Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza. In the interview, she presents the Palestinians as poor, those who are forced to deal with an army that occupies their land in a barbaric and unjust manner. The interview echoes that a second Nakba may happen to the Palestinian people (meaning that the Palestinians will flee their land as they fled in the 1948 war), that the Egyptians will not agree to accept the Gazans and the Jordanians will not agree to accept the residents of Judea and Samaria, but she does not talk about the reason why the Palestinians have reached the situation they are in these days.

Why did the IDF enter Rafah? Why is the IDF attacking Gaza at all? Just because the Israelis hate Arabs? No reason? No, there is a reason. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a barbaric attack devoid of humanity against the citizens of the State of Israel. Hundreds and even thousands of Gazans breached the border with Israel and tried to slaughter every Jew. They raped women, raped men too, and murdered old people, women, children, and babies. They opened a pregnant woman’s stomach and slaughtered it too. They kidnapped over 250 hostages, from a 90-year-old Holocaust survivor woman to a 10-month-old baby. Hamas started the operation on October 7, but later that day, after the border fence had already been breached, Gazan citizens who are not part of Hamas also entered the territory of Israel, but they simply heard that it was possible to enter Israel, loot property, rape women and murder Jews, so they joined the most murderous act of terrorism in recent years as if they had gone on a spontaneous trip.

In the interview, Amanpour continued and asked about the extremists in the Israeli government, which is so ironic that there is nothing left to say. After all, Israel is a country of law, it listens to international law and it knows that if it violates it, it may pay a heavy price for it in many ways. True, this is the most religious and most right-wing government that has existed in Israel to date. But Amanpour cannot ignore the murderous terrorist attack by Hamas, the largest pogrom perpetrated on Jews since the Holocaust, and instead talk about Israel’s extremism. All this proves without a shadow of a doubt that Christiane Amanpour changes the reality she broadcasts to her viewers according to her personal opinions.

I don’t know why these are Amanpour’s views. Perhaps because of her Iranian origin and the fact that Iran arms both the Palestinians and the Armenians makes her biased. Maybe these are simply opinions like those of the hippies in the 60s in America, according to which the weak is the right. I do not know. What I do know is that Amanpour gives reports that do not reflect reality as it really is and that she constantly supports terrorist separatists.   

The Easy Priority

Foreign Policy Blogs - Fri, 10/05/2024 - 22:17

Omar Sharif as Dr. Zhivago, a window into life under Oppression.

News about US Secretary of State Blinken making statements on China came this week while we were re-watching Dr. Zhivago. Flipping back and forth made me think of how Hong Kong was mostly ignored when their democracy was silently given away by the rest of the world without much action or similarly robust statements from the United States. Hong Kong’s silent loss as a prosperous member of democratic nations came in stages, much like the scene where Omar Sharif’s character finds his way back to his family home after the Communists took over Moscow.

After serving his people in war, the good doctor was berated for having such a large and wealthy estate by Communist political officials. His home was parsed out to other families, and his family and their possessions were confined to one room in their former home. A few scenes later, the other families were able to take his personal possessions, save a Balalaika, and his family was warned that any protest would lead to their arrest. Connections to a family member who told him that he would likely be arrested for his political ideas gave them the chance to leave, more so, survive as best as possible as the accusation was as good as a death sentence. Prosperity turned to obedient survival for most in society, with those lucky enough to have connections being the only ones to prosper. While Hong Kong may have not reached the last stages of this process, the silence on Hong Kong lead to one of the greatest losses of a democratic nation in modern times, mostly lost without Western support. As an added irony, the story of Dr. Zhivago was banned by the Soviets for subversive ideas and the author harassed and tortured throughout his entire life for producing non-state sanctioned art while living in the Soviet system.

Recent statements by the US revolved around China shipping raw material products to Russia that can be used to produce artillery shells and other weapons of war. While it had been assumed that China was shipping already made artillery and other weapons to Russia, the statement stopped short of claims of anything being sent past electronic components for weapons systems and raw metals for Russian arms manufacturers. As billions in support had been agreed to help Ukraine fight their war against Russia, reports of raw materials being sold to Russia by Western allies, and even NATO members, were not addressed in his statement on China’s exports. No mention was made on the third party sellers of Russian energy products still making their way into the European energy grid, nor on policies that keep North American energy exports in the ground while NATO allies continue to beg their partners for support via energy exports. Canada declined such help to a fourth ally recently as well, allies that are the bulwark against Russian and Chinese military threats to Europe and Taiwan, helping raise energy profits for those pushing against NATO more than contributing to its collective defense.

Ukraine has been losing some territory in recent weeks, and the debate around giving military and financial assistance contributes greatly to later outcomes. Areas such as Western Ukraine that saw Lviv as an early escape for internal refugees inside of Ukraine is now suffering more missile and drone attacks. Much of the expense in defending Ukraine comes from having anti-air systems destroy missiles and drones that are targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Despite the tense disagreements in funding Ukraine, there is little to no thought given to targeting the source of many of the missile and drones by destroying their manufacturing plants inside of Iran. Despite multiple acts of war against international shipping, US allies, US service members, Ukraine, civilians and terror victims, the US will not address the source of these terror weapons despite them being designed purposefully to kill civilians. If Blinken wishes to openly condemn China for its exports on unmade weapons supplies to Russia, he should also address the suppliers in his own backyard and manage known threats that have already expanded the war in Ukraine globally. The lack of full action against the current conflict in Ukraine has given space for other conflicts to take hold, all to the external and internal detriment of Western allies. A stern speech against China exporting copper is not the main source of problems for Ukraine and its allies. Priorities ignored has lead to more conflict, starting with the active bleaching of Hong Kong from the discussion. Real priorities are very evident, being avoided if not directly discouraged from being addressed, and are currently flying towards a cargo ship in the Red Sea. The end result can be as bad as life in a Boris Pasternak novel, with the artists being treated as such in Western societies. It remains to be seen if his books will be eventually banned in Hong Kong under the current Government.

Si le ciel est vide

Le Monde Diplomatique - Wed, 01/05/2024 - 19:40
Humus ? Cette fine couche sombre issue de la décomposition des êtres organiques, à la frontière du monde des vivants et du monde minéral, d'où rejaillit toute vie. / Idées, Littérature, Spiritualité - 2024/05 / , , - 2024/05

Une invention fulgurante

Le Monde Diplomatique - Tue, 30/04/2024 - 19:35
Du temps de la jeune révolution soviétique, les livres pour enfants étaient les « meilleurs du monde », selon la poétesse Marina Tsvetaïeva. Un art « neuf », qui entend s'adresser prioritairement aux enfants, en tant que « constructeurs » en devenir de la société du progrès pour tous. / Enfance, (...) / , , - 2024/05

The Defence Mosaic

Foreign Policy Blogs - Tue, 30/04/2024 - 18:41

The unacceptable new normal

The years 2022 into 2024 has shown the importance of having sophisticated anti-air defence systems in the application of international policy. Attacks in Ukraine and in the Middle East, as well as possible future ballistic missile threats against South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan would often require a direct and immediate response to an attack. With more advanced AI, radar systems, and interceptor missiles, the ability to sustain an attack and measure out a proper response is something that was only imaginable over the last few years. With systems like Iron Dome, Arrow, THAAD, Patriot PAC-2 and 3, as well as the S-400 systems, and TOR, the tamping down of an escalatory situation is now possible with the reduction of lives lost during an attack. While this advancement of missile technology is a gift in preventing the escalation of war, it must be applied with a mix of different policy and defence measures to have a long term and lasting effect.

With missile protection, there is more room for adaptive policies, but no population should accept living under a constant barrage of missiles. An economy and society would not be able to tolerate constant threats of war and eventual losses of their citizens when the defense system is overwhelmed or outdated. Deterrence through political dialogue and strong offensive measures to match the defensive shield is essential in having a robust missile defense policy. The best way to avoid being hit by a missile, is to either not be in the location of the missile strike, or to eliminate the source of the problem. As most countries are unable to simply move, there must always be a real and direct ability to counter any artillery assaults on military and civilian populations. Often a missile assault is related to a past build up of tensions, and the best defense is not simply the best offense, but one that can target opposing missile forces at the time of preparation and launch. For this reason, generations of ballistic missile systems from the Soviet FROG systems, towards the infamous SCUDs, as well as Scarab, Oka and modern Iskander systems focused on shorter and shorter launch times. The inability to stop a ballistic missile or cruise missile means you have no deterrence measures to hold back a possible attack. Words must be combined with actions in the application of international relations, as has always been the case.

Diplomacy is still the Alpha and Omega of preventing conflict. In the modern era of ballistic missile systems that can range from hypersonic systems, to chemical, biological and nuclear, even an intercepted missile could still rain down chemical weapons on a population. Often nuclear missiles are detonated over a target, and an intercepted nuclear missile could still destroy a population centre if intercepted and detonated in the skies over a city. When diplomacy in the prevention of a ballistic missile attack is not respected or wholly ignored, it will only lead to more of the same in an increasingly harmful threat level and deaths of innocent populations. If a country is threatened with such an attack, they have the obligation to respond in protection of its citizenry. If a country does not possess such capabilities, they should acquire those systems or allies with those systems and counter threats with immediate and direct actions. While bunkers and missile defense may prevent mass casualty events, preventing aggressive actions against a population against actors from abroad is part of the Social Contract every citizen has with their Government. Any country that has existed and survived past three generations has always taken such steps to ensure their own future. Ones that do not react in such a manner are often already on the path to their own disintegration. Surviving is not by chance, and the survivors always prevail for good reason.

Lire les villes

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 29/04/2024 - 17:44
Comment se peut-il, dans les essais sur la polis — la combinaison entre communauté humaine et structure urbaine dans la Grèce antique —, qu'il soit si peu question de politique ? Cette interrogation accompagne la lecture du livre de Ben Wilson, dans lequel il ne propose rien de moins qu'une « (...) / , , - 2024/05

Le poète et le héros

Le Monde Diplomatique - Mon, 29/04/2024 - 17:15
Pour le soixantième anniversaire de la mort de Jean Cocteau (1889-1963), une brassée de témoignages, d'essais et de rééditions a surgi dans les devantures des librairies, mais sans la fureur d'un raz de marée. Le poète d'Opium brille d'un feu estompé par le temps. C'est autour de ses amis et de ses (...) / , - 2024/05

Le maintien de l'ordre à l'épreuve des spectacles sportifs

Le Monde Diplomatique - Sun, 28/04/2024 - 18:00
Avec celle des transports, la question de la sécurité donne des sueurs froides aux organisateurs de grands événements. Le gouvernement a-t-il tiré toutes les leçons de la finale de la Ligue des champions de football en juin 2022 ? Un retour sur ce fiasco permet d'éclairer les dysfonctionnements (...) / , , , - 2024/05

Pages