Diplomacy & Crisis News

The Security Council has emphasized the urgency for Libyan stakeholders to reach a political solution to the country’s crisis amid ongoing United Nations-facilitated talks.

The Obama administration is ready to drop a long-standing demand that Tehran open up about its secret missile research, provided Iran agrees to tough inspections going forward.

"Young people will not only be able to visit exhibits, but also drive and fly on military equipment, shoot military weapons, and do parachute jumps."

A U.S. drone strike killed Nasir al-Wuhayshi. But the real threat is AQAP’s elusive master bomb-maker.

The video depicts a towheaded correspondent turning a blind eye to violence and abuse in Gaza.

A new oil field near Venezuela could be the miracle Maduro was waiting for. There's just one problem — it's in territory claimed by Guyana.

In a country that brooks no dissent, Nasrin Sotoudeh's remarkable solo protest keeps finding unlikely allies.

If the IMF wants to keep Beijing in the tent, it's time to reward China's progress on making its currency more free market-friendly.

China isn’t ready to supply the rest of the world with RMB. So why does it matter if the currency gets the IMF's stamp of approval?

Obama's massive Asia trade deal lives to see another day. But its ultimate fate is still a mystery.

South Africa just let the dictator of Sudan fly home — that's bad news for the International Criminal Court.

The majority of the estimated 250,000 people displaced by the Houthi conflict scattered across the vast landscape of north Yemen, seeking shelter and food among the local rural populations.
Photo: Hugh Macleod / IRIN / 201003170737560353

U.S. policymakers face many difficult choices in pursuing rapprochement with the Islamic Republic of Iran. There is little chance that Iran and the Arab monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia, can countenance each another’s respective aspirations. The U.S. is trying to make a deal with Iran while still tying itself to the demands of its other security partners in the region.

Iran’s ambitions are not new or “revolutionary”: Before the overthrow of the last Shah, a number of modern Iranian leaders had hegemonic aspirations in the Gulf, expressed in terms of past imperial grandeurs. The revolution in 1979 unleashed a torrent of anti-Americanism, but it did not diminish Iranian leaders’ aspirations. Instead, it emboldened them, as they were now animated by true revolutionary zeal, and not the reactionary imaginations of some “pan-Iranists” who called for a “Greater Iran.”

Today, such naked ethnic supremacism holds little stock among even the most hardline Iranian policymakers. While Supreme Leader Khomeini expressed himself in religious terms, he and his colleagues still yearned for national greatness beyond Iran’s borders, to export their model of governance so that would be surrounded by far friendlier regimes. Now they must balance this desire with the realization that their rule cannot survive without better international relations and a lessening of economic sanctions.

Iranian leaders still fear that offensive action might topple them from power — they know full well Western powers could stoke discontent against the ruling class — but they also want be feared and treated as equals. Iranian influence is seen in much of the Arab world as Shia, Persian chauvinism – an unsurprising view given the way Tehran carries itself. But that chauvinism is only exceeded in pretensions by the chauvinism of the Gulf States arrayed against the so-called Shia Crescent.

These Arab powers have many of the same underlying fears of their own citizenry that Iranian leaders do, though there are several notable differences. For one, the Arab states are not under the same sanctions as Iran and need to fear the socioeconomic impact of decades-long censure. Yet the underlying economic and political contracts they have with their subjects are under strain, because of the simple fact that people cannot be bought off forever, especially those who seek to overthrow the state, remove all “undesirables,” and institute a new Islamist order. Yet even with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) at the House of Saud’s doorstep, the Gulf States collectively seem to fear dissidents who may look to the Islamic Republic even more – and do too little to quell the extremist messaging emanating from their own religious establishments that has empowered ISIS and AQAP.

This shortsightedness is why the outcome of the current Gulf-led intervention in Yemen will prove decisive. Saudi leadership has sought to build up a consensus on Yemen among other predominantly Sunni nations. In drawing in as many of these countries as possible, including apparent outliers such as Sudan, Malaysia and Senegal, they wish to obscure that any political solution Riyadh finds acceptable will be unacceptable to many Yemenis.

Iran, for its part, seems content to let the coalition bleed itself. The previous beneficiary of Saudi (and American) largesse, Ali Abdullah Saleh, was tossed aside in 2011 not because he suddenly discovered reform or sided with the Houthis (as he did after losing power), but because he had so badly bungled things that domestic unrest threatened to embolden al Qaeda – which, we now learn, may have deeply infiltrated his security services. Riyadh fails to realize that its actions could deepen the quagmire that Saleh dug himself into with U.S. military assistance.

For now, the U.S. is content to distance itself from the Saudi campaign over Yemen while pursuing a grand bargain with Tehran. The coming months will tell if this remains doable, or if Washington will have to truly set down the rationale for its courting of Tehran while still upholding sanctions and arming the Gulf Arab and Israeli militaries.

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This Ramadan comes at a time when the world is facing a catastrophic leadership deficiency, and nowhere is that catastrophe more evident than in the Middle East. This resource-rich, predominantly Muslim region has produced some of the worst tyrants that the world has ever known — Bashar Assad, Saddam Hussein, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Muammar Gaddafi and many more.

Ramadan is the Islamic holy season in which the faithful diligently tries to maximize his/her spiritual benefit by seeking purification of the soul, enhancement of one’s moral vision and boosting one’s conscience. It is a time in which the faithful works hard to restrain all of material and flesh temptations by turning inward and increasing his or her level of worship, altruism and reflection.

However, Ramadan is not only about the individual’s relationship with God, but also about his/her relationship with other creatures on earth, especially human beings, regardless of their beliefs.

Dysfunctionality of the World Order

Never before in recorded history has the world — specifically the Islamic world — simultaneously experienced so many national and transnational challenges of economic, social, ecological, political and spiritual nature.

The actual and the perceptual order of things have been turned upside down. In a number of countries, the role of the state is being redefined, and the state’s power has diminished drastically. The role of the younger generations and disenfranchised communities has been systematically increasing; thus, setting the stage for reform, but also a power-vacuum, insecurity and chaos.

While the elements that created such daunting conditions are many, chief among them is leadership deficiency.

Many Muslim nations are in a functionally broken or a deplorable state of existence. Some, like Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Yemen are already junglified. According to UNICEF, over 20 million Yemenis need humanitarian aid. Others, such as Egypt, Lebanon, Nigeria and Mali are perfectly placed on the conveyor belt while periodically projecting artificial agency or state authority. Meanwhile, economic predators continue to enhance their exploitation strategies into fine arts.

The Perilous Protection

Some monarchies and emirates have entrusted all their own personal security and that of their respective nations into the hands of mercenaries. Countries such as United Arab Emirates have cultivated deeply-rooted business relationships with the likes of the ever-elusive and infamous Blackwater, which is now known as Academi.

Ironic as it may seem, the UAE became the center where private security companies gravitate towards or the global trade fair where international mercenaries showcase their lethal services.

Unfortunately, times have profoundly changed from the day when Marzabaan the Persian emissary arrived at Medina and could not find a royal palace in the city. When the emissary was lead to Umar — the Second Caliph — took a nap under a shady tree in the outskirt of the city. That was the day when the wise emissary was compelled to make this famous observation: “You assumed authority over them, you served them justly, you felt safe among them, and earned to sleep (exposed and without guards).”

Today, most of the so-called Muslim leaders are known as dictators, kleptocrats and absolute monarchs. Many of them lack the trustworthiness needed to earn public confidence. They lack the vision to lead and the fairness and empathy to care for the least represented of their fellow citizens. But, make no mistake — the real power still rests with the people. Rulers need justice more than their subjects.

Nature of the Deficiency

Throughout today’s world, leaders who are morally anchored, who have the confidence to stand alone, the courage to make tough decisions, and the compassion to listen to the needs of those in whose affairs are entrusted upon them, are in short supply.

What’s needed are leaders who can be trusted by their people and are agents for positive change. Leaders need to possess a broader vision and refrain from letting their own interests define their country’s national interests. They need to be driven by causes that transcend themselves their clan or region interests. They also need to recognize that their authority is a time-constrained privilege, not a right. Leadership, after all, should protect the rights of others and ensure that no grievance is left unaddressed.

At all levels — social, economic and political — these dire times demand transformational leaders who can inspire visions that transcend time and space, who have the capacity to translate those visions into actions, and who could cultivate the right minds and institutions to sustain that vision.

The Metaphor of the Double-decked Ship

In this month of reflection, it is worth remembering the many examples of bad endings of all bad leaders. History is peppered with such examples.

Warning against the abuse of privilege, Prophet Muhammad used the two-decked ship parable in which the morally pompous people were housed in the upper deck and the laity in the lower deck. Whenever the  people on the lower deck needed water, they had to go to the upper deck, where they were given a hard time. This went on for a while until one day, out of frustration, one of the lower deck people decided to bust a hole in the ship in order to access the water beneath. It wasn’t long before they all perished.

Transformational leaders are trend watcher. They are always vigilant of any seemingly small problem with the potential to develop into a major crisis.

Counsel to the Leaders

There is no good leadership without good ethics — the two go hand in hand. Ethics is as a code of conduct or values that distinguish right from wrong, the moral from the immoral, virtuous from the vile in governing the lives of individuals, groups, and societies. In Islam it is known as khuluq. “Deal with people in the best and the most ethical way,” said Prophet Muhammad.

As you reflect and refine your leadership qualities, you should consider these five points.

First, know your advisers as well as they know you, especially those in charge of national security.

Second, always keep in mind that anyone who would kill others for money or greed would have no moral obligation to compromise you and your nation for the right price.

Third, never assess your political crisis based solely on current events. If you are not into history, at least, try to rewind your memory database to recall how events came to be in the first place.

Fourth, keep your passions in check. Never become enamored with the seat of power; it is the only way to spare yourself, your people and your country’s imminent destruction.

Fifth, the best protection that a leader can have is the authentic confidence of the people. Always listen to the people to know what might matter to them the most, and who among them might be disenfranchised, deprived or aggrieved.

The alternative is a roller coaster ride into a perpetual state of chaos, exploitation and suicidal extremism.

(Own report) - New revelations in the inquiry on assassination attempts by the neo-Nazi "National Socialist Underground" (NSU) have incriminated an operative and an informer of two of Germany's intelligence services. According to recent reports, a long-time leading activist of the neo-Nazi scene in Cologne is strongly suspected of having planted a bomb in a local supermarket in December 2000. The bombing is considered one of a series of NSU crimes. The neo-Nazi activist was being managed as an "undercover agent" by North Rhine-Westphalia's Office for the Protection of the Constitution and had possibly still been in contact with the leading NSU trio in 2009. New suspicions have emerged pertaining to Andreas Temme, an operative of Hesse's Office for the Protection of the Constitution. Traces of gunpowder found on his gloves have been attributed to a rarely used type of ammunition, which had been used in the NSU murders. Temme had previously raised suspicion of having been involved in an NSU murder in Kassel. He had left the scene of the crime exactly at the time it was committed. However, he claims that he had not seen the victim, Halit Yozgat, neither alive nor dead, which seems impossible due to the circumstances of the crime. The Minster of Interior, at the time, currently Hesse's Prime Minister, Volker Bouffier , had systematically blocked investigations of Temme's possible involvement.

Photo Credit: Presidential Press and Information Office

The Chinese are notorious for copying Western products and adapting them to serve the Chinese market.  Look at Alibaba, often described as China’s answer to eBay, or Weibo, a hybrid of Twitter and Facebook. Plus, thanks to weak intellectual property protection laws in China, these companies often get away with it.

Yet there is nothing inherently immoral or illegal about governments copying geopolitical strategies from other governments, and China’s northern comrade, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, may be setting a dangerous precedent. The apparent success of Putin’s misadventures in Ukraine could serve as an attractive geopolitical militaristic strategy for other nations with territorial disputes, such as China. But if Putin’s strategy in Ukraine is so dangerous and widely condemned, why would Chinese President Xi Jinping bother copying Putin?

Some political analysts argue that when a nation’s leaders face economic difficulties, the public’s preoccupation with day-to-day problems can be alleviated by focusing on broader concerns like nationalism and the protection of the state’s interests. Economic growth in China is a serious concern, as overcapacity in real estate and heavy industry took gross domestic product (GDP) from the nine percent average from 1989 to 2015 to an expected seven percent first-quarter year-over-year growth rate this last quarter.

Russia is also facing an economic slowdown. Its GDP is expected to shrink by three percent in 2015 as $50 a barrel oil and capital outflows of $115 billion harm growth prospects. Despite an economic crisis in Russia, Putin’s popularity has soared, largely the result of increased nationalism. In May 2013, a little less than a year before Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, Putin’s approval ratings stood at 64 percent. Following further intervention by Russia, which stands accused of providing arms and forces in the east of Ukraine, Putin’s latest approval rating rocketed to 86 percent. Some have questioned the legitimacy of the poll numbers, but many do concede a marked increase in Putin’s popularity among ordinary Russians.

Why would the approval ratings soar after military intervention in another country? One often-cited reason could be the public’s positive perception to any government willing to stand up and defy outside criticism. Other leaders have seen their approval ratings soar when nationalism is fired up — indeed, following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks former President George W. Bush enjoyed the highest approval rating of any president (90 percent). His father, George H.W. Bush, received an 88 percent approval rating in 1991 in the midst of the first Gulf War.

Joseph Nye,  a professor at Harvard University and the Assistant Secretary of Defense under the Clinton administration from 1994–95, hints this same strategy may be happening in China under Xi Jinping.  In a recent interview with The Diplomat, he warns of growing nationalism under Xi:

Xi Jinping needs a legitimizing force for his power and for the power of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Economic growth has historically been the primary legitimizer of its authority, especially since communist ideology has declined greatly in importance. As China has an economic slowdown, nationalism will increase further, and I think we are undergoing a period of heightened attention to nationalism. I think nationalism has made it more difficult for China to resolve conflicts with its neighbors in the South China Sea. So far there is no clear indication that increased Chinese nationalism will result in military aggression. The high level meeting between Xi Jinping and Abe at the APEC summit was a positive step, as China had been resistant to these meetings in the past. But the potential for nationalism to boil over, it is something we need to watch closely.

I think the most probable scenario would be if Chinese planes and ships got involved in incidents with the Japanese in the Senkaku Islands, and lost. The Japanese might have superior capabilities in the event of conflict, and a defeat there would be a direct threat to Xi Jinping’s power.

Nye’s scenario is not so far-fetched. On Saturday, Japanese media reported on Chinese plans to build a large naval base in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province for its coast guard vessels. Wenzhou is not far from the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu to the Chinese), it and would allow the Chinese to closely monitor naval activities around the disputed eight uninhabited islands and rocks in the East China Sea controlled by Japan.

The potential for skirmishes in the airspace above the Senkaku is also real. In November 2013, China announced the creation of its air-defense identification zone in the East China Sea, which requires all aircraft to comply with Beijing’s rules.

China also claims up to 90 percent of the South China Sea, and draws a ten-dash U-shaped line (or “cow’s tongue”) around the sea on its maps, which overlaps territorial claims by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.  Originally an eleven-dash line formulated in 1936, two dashes were removed near the Gulf of Tonkin to appease its Communist brother Vietnam. Last year, one dash was added by Beijing emphasize its sovereignty over Taiwan. In recent months, Beijing has come under have international criticism for land reclamation on islands it occupies, and for attempting to impose its control over the fishing rights in, and airspace above, the South China Sea.

Should Xi copy Putin in building nationalistic fervor in order to distract the populace from domestic problems, the strategy could well backfire. Many of the student protests in Chinese history originally began as nationalistic protests against foreign countries and morphed into protests against government leadership. The strategy could also lead to strong reactions from both regional governments and the naval superpower in the region, the United States.

Such reactions have already affected Russia. In response to Putin’s latest misadventures in Ukraine, the U.S. announced plans this past weekend to store heavy military equipment in the Baltics and Eastern European nations. The U.S. may seek a similar strategy in the East and South China Sea, and position more and more of its naval military there to reassure its allies and other nations with territorial claims and deter any further aggression from Beijing. Vietnam and the Philippines are already requesting further support from Washington, and Japan is reconsidering its constitution to allow for greater military efforts.

Besides leading to a potential dangerous and costly war, what both Xi and Putin should not forget is that while military nationalism may provide a temporary boost to popularity, it may prove short-lived, inflict further damage on the economy, and result in a failure to achieve its military objectives.

Laurent Marchand, éditorialiste pour Ouest France, consacre sa chronique « Tout un monde »  à l’article écrit par Myriam Benraad dans le nouveau numéro de Politique étrangère, « Défaire Daech : une guerre tant financière que militaire ».

Comme une masse liquide injectée dans le grand Proche Orient, les territoires conquis par le groupe État islamique fluctuent sur les cartes du renseignement international. Ce que ces cartes ne montrent pas c’est l’assise économique et financière qui explique la fulgurante montée en puissance de Daech et sa force de frappe. L’organisation pèserait environ 2 milliards de dollars. Dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère, la revue de l’Institut international des relations internationales, Myriam Benraad, chercheuse au CERI-Sciences-Po, se penche sur « les rouages économiques et financiers » et la précarité socio-économique qui régnait en Irak qui ont permis à Daech, « dès son émergence sur la scène irakienne à l’automne 2006, de conquérir un vaste territoire ». Elle décrit la mise en place de réseaux de contrebande qui « préexistaient au renversement même de Saddam Hussein ». Elle énumère les différentes sources d’enrichissement de l’organisation : trafics d’armes, de biens, d’œuvre d’art, exploitation du gaz et du pétrole, « méthodes de levée et de transfert de fonds extrêmement sophistiquées », attaques contre des dizaines de banques, racket, rançons, commerce avec les agents d’Assad… 

Nous avons tous en tête désormais la rapidité de la montée en puissance de cette organisation nouvelle durant l’année 2014, à cheval entre la Syrie et l’Irak. On insiste moins d’ordinaire sur ses origines, y compris sous l’angle économique. Or, l’article de Myriam Benraad décrit très bien cette évolution depuis 2006. « Le marché noir d’hydrocarbures, de biens et d’armes est édifiant : les réseaux de contrebande passés sous le contrôle de l’État islamique d’Irak dès 2006, ne remontent pas à l’occupation étrangère ; ils préexistaient au renversement de Saddam Hussein qui en avait confié la gestion à certaines tribus loyales en échange d’un maintien de l’ordre dans des territoires qui, au temps de l’embargo, échappaient déjà à l’autorité de la capitale ».

***

« Si l’on rapporte son mode d’action à celui d’Al-Qaïda, on constate que l’État islamique ne dérive pas ses revenus de dons extérieurs. Il les génère »… Myriam Benraad de poursuivre. « Dès les premiers jours, les djihadistes se sont dotés d’un “ministère” de l’Économie et d’un comité financier appuyés sur un réseau de sympathisants chargé de la collecte de fonds en Irak et à l’extérieur. »

***

« En 2014, l’organisation aurait produit et vendu entre 30 000 et 50 000 barils de brut par jour, avec un revenu quotidien avoisinant les 850 000 dollars… »

***

« L’agriculture vient parachever ce tableau, en particulier dans les plaines fertiles de la province irakienne de Ninive et les zones rurales qui entourent le sanctuaire syrien de l’État islamique, Raqqa, où les fermiers ont vu leurs récoltes de blé, de céréales, et leur bétail confisqués pour les affamer – surtout lorsqu’il s’agissait de chrétiens. »

« La mise sous contrôle d’usines entières de production agricole et de l’exploitation du phosphate et du soufre dans la province d’Al-Anbar en Irak, mais aussi du ciment à Deir Ezzor en Syrie, a généré des centaines de millions de dollars de revenus. »

***

Myriam Benraad évoque enfin les limites à cette puissance économique de Daech, le fait notamment que la richesse des djihadistes n’a pas été réalloué aux populations civiles mais souvent captée par ses élites dirigeantes ou réinjectés dans des circuits mafieux.

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

The appearance of Colonel Gulmurod Khalimov in an Islamic State propaganda video on May 27 sent a chill across Central Asia. The head of Tajikistan's Special Assignment Police Unit (OMON), a key element in President Emomali Rahmon's security apparatus, had disappeared shortly before. In the video he promised to return to wage violent jihad.

Pour comprendre ce qui se joue au travail, il est bon de se pencher sur le cadre de l'emploi. Sophie Robin-Olivier, professeure de droit à la Sorbonne, s'y est attelée dans un ouvrage austère mais éclairant . En mettant en regard plusieurs pays européens ainsi que les Etats-Unis, cette spécialiste (...) / Allemagne, États-Unis, Europe, France, Italie, Automobile, Entreprise, Idées, Idéologie, Jeunes, Protection sociale, Santé, Service public, Télécommunications, Travail, Médecine - 2015/06

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Si les grands mouvements collectifs font l'histoire, il est des circonstances où le comportement d'un individu — ou deux, en l'occurrence — contribue à cristalliser le destin des peuples et le sort des démocraties. En 1940, au moment où le gouvernement français hésite entre capitulation et armistice, (...) / France, Royaume-Uni, Histoire, Personnalités, Seconde guerre mondiale 1939-1945 - 2015/06