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Régulièrement 1914-1918 se rappelle à nous : des munitions refont surface dans les champs, des obus remplis de gaz mortels menacent de fuir et obligent à faire évacuer des villages, des ossements émergent. Au fond, la Grande Guerre ne nous a jamais quittés, comme si chacune des familles meurtries par (...) / Conflit, Histoire - 2001/11 Commentaires

This article is the English version of : Ekaterina Stepanova, « La Russie a-t-elle une grande stratégie au Moyen-Orient ? », published in Politique étrangère, Vol. 81, Issue 2, 2016.

During the armed conflict in Syria, Russia has significantly upgraded its role and status both in the Middle East and beyond the region. The most radical upgrade has been Moscow’s carefully calibrated military intervention on behalf of the Syrian government since late September 2015, as well as its role in the revived Geneva negotiation process since February 2016 and in the ensuing ceasefire co-brokered by Russia and the United States. This new role and level of engagement is at odds with the widespread stereotype about post-Soviet Russia’s departure from the Middle East.

In contrast, in the mid-2010s there has been growing talk about Russia’s return to the Middle East and, through its upgraded role in this region, to the central stage of global politics. This, in turn, has prompted the rise of expectations and speculation, both in and beyond the region, about Russia’s new “grand strategy” in the Middle East. How justified are these expectations? Does the fact that Russia outplayed the United States on Syria suffice as evidence of Moscow’s “grand strategy” for the broader region? Or should Russia’s engagement be seen instead as merely a series of measured, ad hoc steps involving skillful improvisation, and mainly in the pursuit of instrumental tactical goals, in the absence of any more ambitious, long-term and comprehensive regional strategy? Or are we dealing with something that does not fall neatly under either category, involving and displaying elements of broader strategic thinking – but not in the way of a “grand strategy” for the Middle East?

The international context and the Russia’s Global Strategy

It took at least a decade for post-Soviet Russia to adapt itself to the new international realities, start rediscovering its identity as a nation, and (re) shaping, to the extent possible, its new role and place in the world. It is only in the 2010s, however, that several key strategic “directions” and cross-cutting lines took full shape and could be clearly traced in Russia’s foreign policy. These survived all the subsequent foreign policy crises and even the economic calamities that Russia became involved in. This points to the long-term and fundamental, rather than merely contextual or declaratory, nature of these guiding principles. Three guiding principles are most pertinent to the subject of this article.

• A gradual, but steady shift from the US global hegemony and “unipolar moment” of the 1990s and early 2000s, and, more broadly, from the undisputed centrality of the West, or the “Euro-Atlantic concert”, to an emerging multipolar world, with several rising centers of power and security. In this emerging world, the utmost limit of Russia’s long-term ambitions on a global stage – an aspiration that could take decades to come to reality – is to become one of its several poles. 
• The regionalization of world politics that manifests itself in the rise of regional powers, institutions (including security alliances) and dynamics. Russia has already reclaimed its role and place as a leading power in its main and only vital region of interest and concern – post-Soviet Eurasia. In this macro-region, Russia has built up a regional security alliance (the Collective Security Treaty Organization), is pursuing a macro-regional economic integration project (the Eurasian Economic Union), and expects its interests and influence as a primusinter pares to be recognized by key actors both within and outsideEurasia, including the United States and the EU.
• Russian aversion to regime change by force, especially from the outside, which has become a cross-cutting line in its policies concerning the Middle East and beyond. This is despite the fact that, overall, Russia’s foreign policy and strategy (since it could be identified as a more or less coherent one, i.e. since the 2000s) has remained relatively non-ideological, pragmatic and marked by a high degree of cultural relativism, especially compared to the US-led and Western-backed “democracy promotion” in places ranging from Eastern Europe to Afghanistan and Iraq.

This aversion to forced regime change, especially with external support or through direct external intervention, was borne out of the Russian leadership’s growing suspicions about the so-called “color revolutions” in the post-Soviet space through the 2000s. These refer to change of government, through means other than legal succession of power and with varying degrees of popular support, in Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004) and Kyrgyzstan (2005 and 2010). While undertaken under the banner and in the name of democracy and moderate nationalism, these “revolutions” essentially were, or morphed into, a reshuffling of the balance of power among the ruling oligarchical clans and elites under the disguise of broader social protest, ultimately reproducing the “pre-revolutionary” conditions and sources of instability and often creating more problems than they were expected by some within these countries to solve. They were also increasingly seen by Moscow as being at least partly, if not mainly, promoted by external influences and powers from outside the region, and as threats to Moscow’s influence. Russia’s own wave of mass pro-democracy protests of the early 2010s was interpreted by the Kremlin as an attempt to move in the same direction of color revolutions. […]

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Les objets perdus par l'histoire et que nul ne réclame attendent, en transit chez un antiquaire, qu'un acheteur leur donne enfin une nouvelle raison d'être. Ces objets déplacés, sans destination, par conséquent absurdes (et qui suggèrent que le surréalisme s'est peut-être réfugié dans les magasins (...) / Chine - 1955/05

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’automne de Politique étrangère (n° 3/2020). Aurore Colin propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Serge Marti, Une planète à sauver. Six défis pour 2050 (Odile Jacob, 2020, 240 pages).

Cet ouvrage n’est pas une description des défis du futur auxquels la planète va être confrontée, mais plutôt un panorama de l’ensemble des maux frappant déjà nos sociétés, et qui sont amenés à s’aggraver si nous, politiciens, entreprises, citoyens, ne réagissons pas dès maintenant.

Le journaliste Serge Marti ouvre son livre par une revue d’actualités s’efforçant de bousculer l’inaction politique des cinquante dernières années sur la question écologique : le mouvement des jeunes pour le climat emmené par Greta Thunberg, l’action en justice « L’Affaire du siècle », ou encore la Convention citoyenne pour le climat. Pour l’auteur, ces différentes actualités témoignent d’un « réveil des consciences », et même d’une « révolte verte » face à un système « productiviste qui saccage la nature ». La « vague verte » qui a touché certaines villes françaises lors des dernières élections municipales semble aller dans le sens de son analyse – pour la France tout du moins.

Le cœur de l’ouvrage est sa deuxième partie consacrée aux six défis pour 2050. Cette partie tire sa pertinence des descriptions chiffrées, documentées et riches en exemple de six grandes plaies qui ont déjà commencé à s’abattre sur nos sociétés, et dont nous sommes responsables : le dérèglement climatique, la destruction massive de la biodiversité et des forêts, la forte augmentation de la population et des migrations, la mauvaise gestion et la raréfaction de l’eau potable, la pollution et l’épuisement des sols et terres agricoles ainsi que de la mer et de la vie marine. La description de ces défis est ponctuée par la présentation de solutions, que chaque expert estimera dans son domaine, souvent peu approfondies, parfois superficielles et n’apportant qu’une réponse court-termiste et isolée face à des problèmes globaux aux causes multiples. On doutera, par exemple, de la capacité à compenser la déforestation massive en Amazonie et en Afrique, et de la durabilité des méga-projets de reforestation et de lutte contre la désertification en Chine et au Sahel, appelés « muraille verte ». Si à propos du défi lié à l’agriculture, l’auteur va au-delà des constats et des exemples en donnant sa propre vision de la réponse à apporter – la sauvegarde et le développement de l’agriculture paysanne et écologique –, il faut attendre la troisième et dernière partie pour que Serge Marti nous livre son analyse des responsables de la situation et des solutions globales à mettre en œuvre. On appréciera particulièrement cette dernière partie en ce qu’elle pose les bonnes questions : le capitalisme est‑il compatible avec l’écologie ? Doit‑on adopter un modèle décroissant ? L’écologie est‑elle la seule capable de sauver la planète ? etc. Avec quelques éléments de réponse, notamment à travers la sortie du modèle du capitalisme financier guidé par la rentabilité à court terme, le développement de la « social-écologie » et le changement des modes de consommation.

Sans prétendre fouiller en profondeur les multiples sujets qu’il aborde, ce livre donne une vision intégrée et pertinente des menaces qui pèsent non pas sur la planète mais bien sur la vie humaine dans son ensemble, et des pistes de solutions possibles. Menaces auxquelles on devrait aujourd’hui adjoindre la question des pandémies mondiales et de leur gestion, que la crise sanitaire liée au COVID-19 a révélée comme un nouveau défi majeur pour nos sociétés.

Aurore Colin

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« Antiaméricanisme » : ce mot enfle et se répand ; colloques et éditoriaux lui font écho. Son usage n'est pas innocent, qui a pour objet d'intimider les derniers réfractaires à un ordre social dont les Etats-Unis sont le laboratoire. Quand le reste du monde ressemble aux Etats-Unis, l'exception (...) / États-Unis, Idéologie, Médias, Presse - 2000/05

L'exagération médiatique des « contraintes » qui interdiraient d'agir et la fabrication d'une réalité télévisée sans rapport avec la vie des téléspectateurs ont accéléré la dépolitisation de l'opinion. Comment réagir quand l'occultation de l'essentiel et l'amplification de l'accessoire conjuguent leurs effets (...) / Audiovisuel, Politique, Publicité - 1993/05

The UN is calling for authoritative scientific information and research to be made freely available, to accelerate research into an effective vaccine against the COVID-19 virus, help counter misinformation, and “unlock the full potential of science”.

Sudden reforms in the ethno-federal state system have drawn comparisons to the dissolution of Yugoslavia.

Continuing violence in the wake of elections in  Cote d’Ivoire’s presidential elections held on 31 October, prompted the UN human rights chief on Monday to call for a peaceful solution, saying it was in “nobody’s interests to fuel the threat of increasing political instability”.

Some leaders are breaking ranks with the majority of world leaders in the hopes that Trump will somehow cling to power.

The UN Deputy Secretary-General is on a two-week solidarity visit to West Africa and the Sahel to underscore the Organization’s support to countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Senior UN officials have offered their congratulations to the president-elect of the United States Joe Biden, and vice president-elect Kamala Harris, on their election victory called on Saturday.

A new administration points to a resolution of some thorny bilateral disputes—but could threaten Moon Jae-in’s cherished rapprochement with the North.

Preoccupied with domestic challenges and an impending contest with a populist rival, France’s government will benefit from the defeat of the far-right across the Atlantic.

U.S. defense cooperation with India is one thing Democratic and Republican administrations agree on.

In the 1990s, the Azerbaijani population was expelled. Now Armenians could face the same fate.

Bolsonaro needs Trumpism to rally his base, but he might need Biden’s America even more.

An indigenous form of Islam developed within the West—rather than influenced by leaders from abroad—is the path to integration and peaceful coexistence.

The abrupt news after Trump’s electoral defeat follows months of tensions between the U.S. president and his secretary of defense.

Talks to draw up a blueprint for a new political era in Libya began in Tunisia on Monday, following a peace deal struck by Libya’s warring sides last month.