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Diplomacy & Crisis News

Rising incomes more harmful to environment than population growth

UN News Centre - jeu, 24/02/2022 - 02:33
Higher incomes contribute more to environmental degradation than population growth, a report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) has revealed. 

Israel-Palestine: No substitute for legitimate political process, UN envoy tells Security Council

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 22:05
The destabilizing deterioration of the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory continues in the absence of political solutions that would “reset the trajectory”, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process said on Wednesday. 

Development finance institutions must include in investments, ‘right to remedy’

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 22:04
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights launched on Wednesday a ground-breaking new report for development finance institutions to ensure that the projects they support do not harm people, and make effective remedy is readily available.

UN pledges more support for internally displaced persons in DR Congo’s Ituri province

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 21:17
The United Nations will work together with the authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), as well as other partners, in ensuring security in the eastern part of the country, said Jean-Pierre Lacroix, the UN’s top peacekeeping official. 

At dedicated Assembly session on Ukraine, UN chief calls for ‘restraint, reason and de-escalation’

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 18:48
The world is facing “a moment of peril,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told a General Assembly session on Wednesday dedicated to the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.

Guterres strongly condemns arrest of UN personnel in Central African Republic

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 16:50
Secretary-General António Guterres has called for the release of four members of the UN peacekeeping mission in the Central African Republic (CAR) who were arrested in the capital, Bangui, earlier this week, his spokesperson said on Wednesday. 

UN-backed report warns of rising wildfire threat

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 07:55
Wildfires are projected to rise by 50 per cent by the end of the century due to the climate crisis and changes in land use, according to a report published on Wednesday by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and GRID-Arendal, a non-profit environmental communications centre based in Norway. 

Russia Says 'Objective Needs' Will Determine When Troops Return From Belarus

The National Interest - mer, 23/02/2022 - 02:00

Peter Suciu

Russia Military, Belarus

Around 30,000 Russian troops were deployed to Belarus for the joint Union Resolve 2022 exercises.

Even as reports suggest that a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains "imminent," Russian officials have claimed that its troops will return to their permanent bases. However, instead of providing any timetable, it now appears that Russia is taking a very direct and blunt stance: those forces will only return to their bases when Moscow is ready for them to do so.

And it isn't just Russia that is making the bold declaration.

On Monday, during a briefing with defense attaches, Major General Viktor Gulevich, Chief of the Belarusian General Staff, explained that Russia's forces will return back to their bases only when the need arises, according to a report from TASS.

"Russian troops will return to their permanent bases only when there is an objective need for that and we determine that ourselves. This is solely our internal matter," Gulevich stated. Gulevich emphasized that the timeframe for the return of the troops to Russia "will to a large extent depend on our Western colleagues."

Moscow has made several demands, including that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO, and Russian president Vladimir Putin has also called for NATO to return to its 1997 status, which would require the expulsion of fifteen current members.

However, those requests have been described as nonstarters by the United States and NATO. As the two sides remain at an impasse, Russia has continued its buildup of military forces, and Putin recently announced that Moscow would recognize the independence of Ukraine’s breakaway regions.

Union Resolve Exercises

Around 30,000 Russian troops had been deployed to Belarus to take part in the joint Union Resolve 2022 exercises. The drills were part of a combat readiness check of the Union State's response forces.

"The forces that have been deployed to Eastern Europe, including near the Belarusian state border, are one of the factors that influence any further developments," Gulevich stated.

Gulevich added that "given the growing military buildup near the borders of the Union State [of Belarus and Russia] and mounting tensions in Donbass, the presidents of Belarus and Russia have decided to continue the check of the Union State's response forces."

This has been seen as a shift in language from Moscow, which just last week had maintained that its forces would return to Russia at the completion of the joint exercises. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov even took aim at NATO for the alliance's deployments in Eastern Europe.

"Unlike the drills on its territory, which Russia performs, and after which the troops return to garrisons, the troops that are far from the territory of both the UK, the U.S., [and] Canada, are sent to Baltic states, to Black Sea states, those troops and arms usually never get back home," Lavrov said after talks with British foreign secretary Liz Truss on Thursday.

Now, it appears that Russia's forces could be staying in Belarus a while longer, at least if they are not sent to invade Ukraine.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters.

Can the Pentagon Ramp Up Its Hypersonic Weapons Programs?

The National Interest - mer, 23/02/2022 - 01:00

Peter Suciu

Hypersonic Weapons,

A recent meeting between Secretary Austin and defense industry leaders shed light on what industry insiders believe might be causing delays in hypersonic weapons development.

Earlier this month, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with the CEOs of more than two dozen of America's largest defense contractors and called for accelerated efforts to develop hypersonic weapons. Austin’s call comes as China and Russia are making advancements in the development of the game-changing technology.

Top executives from Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, Leidos, Aerojet Rocketdyne, BAE Systems, L3Harris, and about a half dozen other defense companies were represented at the meeting, which was chaired by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks.

"We need to anticipate how [China is] going to evolve its capabilities. And we need to be out in front of that," Austin told attendees of the meeting.

Capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5 or faster, hypersonic weapons are incredibly difficult to detect, something that poses a significant challenge to missile defense systems. Hypersonic missiles can also maneuver and evade missile defense systems while in flight. In addition, hypersonic missiles can travel at a far lower trajectory than high-arching ballistic missiles, which are more easily detectable.

The United States’ effort to develop hypersonic weapons has suffered multiple setbacks in recent months. In October, the Pentagon said a test of a hypersonic glide body failed due to a problem with its rocket. In addition, a hypersonic missile failed to separate from a B-52H Stratofortress bomber during a test at Edwards Air Force Base last April. April’s test was the eighth test aimed at determining how to arm the Cold War-era bomber with the advanced AGM-182A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon.

Three military branches, as well as DARPA and the Missile Defense Agency, are now pursuing their own programs. The 2022 Department of Defense budget committed $3.8 billion to hypersonic research, an increase from the previous year's $3.2 billion. While funding has been increased, one issue will be determining how the Pentagon should allocate funding for those various programs.

"The meeting between industry heads and a Defense Secretary was a rare occurrence and serves to underscore that hypersonic development is a priority to the U.S. military," explained William Davies, an analyst at the international analytics firm GlobalData.

"Despite a concerted push by DoD officials to advance hypersonic weapon timelines, the ambition will not be realized unless the 2023 budget shows targeted funding for achieving deployment of ongoing programs," Davies added.

The meeting between Secretary Austin and the defense industry leaders shed light on what industry insiders believe might be causing delays in hypersonic weapons development. Several factors have been cited, including supply chain constraints, budget instability, and access to wind testing facilities.

Such complaints will likely have an impact on future budget priorities, which may also include increasing workforce development funds to ensure that the United States remains competitive with its adversaries, GlobaData suggested.

"The U.S. has expressed significant concern recently about the proliferation of hypersonic weapons amongst adversaries, and this meeting will likely serve to focus minds on what needs to be done to enable defense primes to bring weapons to market on schedule," Davies noted. "The U.S. is likely to prioritize testing infrastructure such as wind tunnels and missile test ranges in coming years, but whether this will be enough to speed up development remains to be seen."

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters.

Baby formula marketing ‘pervasive, misleading and aggressive’ – UN report

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 00:50
Parents and pregnant women globally are exposed to aggressive marketing for baby formula milk, according to a report launched jointly by two UN agencies on Tuesday.

Ukraine crisis testing ‘entire international system’ – UN chief

UN News Centre - mer, 23/02/2022 - 00:13
The latest developments in Ukraine are testing “the entire international system”, Secretary-General António Guterres said at a media stakeout on Tuesday, adding “we must pass this test.”

The United States Blocks Aid for Burkina Faso Following Coup

The National Interest - mer, 23/02/2022 - 00:00

Trevor Filseth

Burkina Faso Coup, Africa

The coup in Burkina Faso marks the third high-profile overthrow of a government in West Africa since 2019.

The United States announced on Friday that it would suspend a $160 million aid package to Burkina Faso after an internal review concluded that the military’s overthrow of President Roch Kabore constituted a coup d’etat.

Because U.S. law automatically forbids providing aid to military governments that depose democratically-elected leaders, the aid package was frozen after the determination was made, according to Reuters.

“The State Department assesses that a military coup took place in Burkina Faso,” a statement issued by a State Department spokesperson read. “Therefore, approximately $158.6 million in foreign assistance that benefits the Government of Burkina Faso is restricted.”

However, the government also indicated that the law allows for exceptions to the blanket ban, including for the provision of essential humanitarian goods such as medicines.

Kabore was overthrown in January after a bloodless but chaotic military coup that began when Burkinabe soldiers took control of a military base in Ouagadougou, the country’s capital. Although Kabore was initially reported to have escaped an attempted kidnapping by the mutineers, it was later revealed that he was imprisoned at the base. While the leaders of the mutiny initially issued a series of demands for the government, they did not indicate that they would depose Kabore. After a day of uncertainty, however, they backtracked and announced that they would seize power. The junta’s leader, Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Damiba, was officially sworn into office as the country’s president on Wednesday.

The military junta justified its overthrow of Kabore by criticizing his failure to quell an Islamist insurgency in the country’s eastern border regions. The ongoing insurgency has forced more than one million citizens, or roughly five percent of the country’s population, to flee their homes.

The coup in Burkina Faso marks the third high-profile overthrow of a government in West Africa since 2019. In neighboring Mali, army officer Assimi Goita seized control of the country in 2020 and launched a second coup in May 2021 to dismiss civilian elements of the government and consolidate power. Then, in September 2021, Mamady Doumbouya, a Guinean special forces officer, orchestrated a coup of his own, overthrowing Guinean leader Alpha Conde. Goita and Doumbouya reportedly knew one another, as both had received counterterrorism training from U.S. forces.

The wave of military takeovers has destabilized West Africa, causing French troops to depart from Mali and leading to an uptick in Islamist insurgent violence across the Sahel region.

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for the National Interest.

Image: Reuters.

Russian Troops Ordered into Ukraine's Eastern Donbas Region

The National Interest - mar, 22/02/2022 - 23:15

Mark Episkopos

Russia-Ukraine War, Ukraine

It is unclear if the advancing Russian forces will confine their presence to the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics or if they will seek to establish a perimeter in the broader Donbas region.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered troops into two rebel-held regions in eastern Ukraine.

The announcement follows an hour-long presidential address on Monday in which Putin framed Ukraine as a historically and culturally inseparable part of Russia’s sphere of influence. Russian lawmakers voted unanimously on Tuesday to authorize Putin to use military force in Donbas

It is unclear if the advancing Russian forces will confine their presence to the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) in the near term, or if they will seek to establish a perimeter in the broader Donbas region.

Video footage has emerged of main battle tanks (MBTs) and other military equipment rolling into the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk. The scale of the Russian intervention—both in the number of participating military personnel and the types of military equipment used—remains unknown, as do the Kremlin’s long-term military aims.

Putin characterized the deployment as a “peacekeeping” effort, following allegations from Moscow and the separatists that Ukraine is conducting a “genocide” against the majority Russian-speaking, pro-Russian population of the eastern Donbas region. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations (U.N.) Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Moscow’s peacekeeping claim was “nonsense,” adding, “we know what they really are."

Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer described Russia’s Donbas deployment as an  “invasion,” a term the White House was initially hesitant to use. “We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion,” Finer told CNN on Tuesday. “I am calling it an invasion. We’re taking a severe response including sanctions on Russia [that] we’ll be rolling out in a matter of hours.”

The Biden administration has implemented a mild initial sanctions package involving prohibitions on “new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine,” with White House press secretary Jen Psaki noting that additional measures will come later this week. British prime minister Boris Johnson announced financial restrictions on five Russian banks and three Russian billionaires—a package he described as the “first barrage” of British sanctions on Moscow. Berlin has suspended the certification process for Nord Stream 2, a natural gas pipeline running from Russia to Germany.

“Moscow has moved from covert attempts to destabilize Ukraine to overt military action,” said NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg during a briefing on Tuesday. “We will continue to provide Ukraine with strong political support and allies are providing equipment to help Ukraine defend itself as well as sustained financial support.”

Western governments and intelligence sources have expressed concern that the entry of Russian troops into territories currently not under direct Ukrainian control could be followed by a full-scale invasion and occupation of all or large parts of the country.

Mark Episkopos is a national security reporter for the National Interest.

Image: Reuters.

Can Romney's Child Tax Credit Compromise Make It Through Congress?

The National Interest - mar, 22/02/2022 - 23:00

Stephen Silver

Child Tax Credit,

Romney's deal may be the only way for the child tax credit to survive, although whether it has enough support remains an open question.

The expanded child tax credit expired at the end of 2021 after it became clear that there wasn’t enough support to pass the Build Back Better package, which would have funded the credit for one more year.

Despite this setback, a number of Democratic senators have continued to push for a continuation of the expanded credit, and some lawmakers have highlighted that the expiration of the credit led to a noticeable increase in child poverty in the first month of 2022. However, as long as Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) continues to oppose the credit, it’s unclear how something resembling the Build Back Better version can pass a divided Senate.

One possible way around that barrier is a bipartisan version of the child allowance proposal, which was put forward in early 2020 by Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). Earlier this week, NBC News looked at what form such a deal would take.

“His proposal would bring back the direct monthly payments many parents used for six months last year to cover the cost of food, clothing, and child care before Congress let the tax credit expire," NBC reported. “But Romney's form of extra monthly payments would add stringent work requirements, slash programs that aid vulnerable Americans and make significant changes to the tax code.”

Such a deal may be the only way for the child tax credit to survive, although whether it could get enough support from both parties remains an open question. Democratic supporters of the expanded credit have not been receptive to the idea of work requirements. However, Romney did tell NBC that multiple Democratic senators have expressed interest, although he did not name those senators.

“I think momentum is growing quite a bit, and there’s more interest because folks on the right want to do something,” an aide to Romney said. “I think folks on the left are realizing if they don’t do it bipartisan, it’s not going to happen.” While Romney has not officially introduced legislation for the proposal this year, he did introduce a similar proposal in early 2020.

“I’ve spoken with enough Democrats, including Joe Manchin, that insist that that’s essential. And, by the way, a number of Republicans, as well, say that’s absolutely essential—there has to be a work requirement,” Romney said last month during a speech at the American Enterprise Institute.

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

Image: Reuters.

Omicron sublineage BA.2 remains a variant of concern

UN News Centre - mar, 22/02/2022 - 22:42
The BA.2 virus, a sublineage of the Omicron COVID-19 mutation, should continue to be considered a variant of concern, scientists convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) said in a statement on Tuesday. 

Long-awaited local elections will offer Central Africans opportunity to expand political space

UN News Centre - mar, 22/02/2022 - 22:01
Local elections in the Central African Republic (CAR), which have been pending since 1988 and are slated for September, will deepen efforts to decentralize power and expand political space, the UN envoy for the country told the Security Council on Tuesday, encouraging the new Government to “deploy all possible efforts” to calm the political climate.

How Would China Respond to a Russian Invasion of Ukraine?

The National Interest - mar, 22/02/2022 - 22:00

Kris Osborn

China-Taiwan War, Asia

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be made more likely if U.S. forces were not operating in close enough proximity to intervene against a Chinese assault.

There is a less recognized but equally dangerous subtext to the expected Russian invasion of Ukraine: the question of China.

Could China feel emboldened by a successful Russian invasion of Ukraine and seize the opportunity to invade and annex Taiwan? China may see an opportunity to move if the United States is distracted as it attempts to secure sensitive border regions in Eastern Europe. Moreover, depending on the United States’ response to any Russian aggression, China may estimate that U.S. forces would not directly confront China to defend Taiwan.

“China is watching. We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that what we are about to see in Ukraine could be repeated further east,” said Tim Morrison, Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and former Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security.

Pentagon officials have routinely emphasized that U.S. forces will not fight in Ukraine, and Russian forces are expected to attack at any moment. Could China gamble on the possibility that the United States might take a similar stance regarding Taiwan? This could be made more likely if U.S. Navy forces were not forward operating in close enough proximity to intervene against a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan.

Regardless of how the United States would respond, Morrison’s point that China might seize an opportunity to invade rings true in light of China’s massive uptick in drills, war preparations, and fighter jet patrols near Taiwan.

However, as was the case with Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine, satellites observing the Pacific theater would likely detect a large Chinese amphibious attack force being prepared to move on Taiwan. This might give the U.S. Navy, which already maintains a regular presence in the region, an opportunity to marshal the forces and resources necessary to counter a Chinese attack. These forces would likely include F-35 fighters, Tomahawk missiles, and Amphibious Ready Groups.

As Japan’s Southern Islands are between 500 and 1,000 miles north of Taiwan, it is entirely possible that a U.S.-Japanese coalition might be able to intercept or attack an approaching Chinese amphibious force. Tomahawks, for example, can travel as far as 900 miles, and newer Tomahawks can use a two-way data link and sensor to adjust course and destroy moving targets at sea. In tactical terms, this means that a Navy destroyer armed with Tomahawks might be capable of targeting Chinese amphibious assault ships at distances of up to 900 miles.

These response capabilities would be crucial in any effort to defend Taiwan. This is because, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is surrounded by water, which would make it difficult to quickly deploy mechanized land forces to defend Taiwan.

Kris Osborn is the Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master's Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.

Image: Reuters.

Poland Continues Military Modernization Amid Russian Aggression

The National Interest - mar, 22/02/2022 - 21:00

Peter Suciu

Polish Military, Europe

If Putin was hoping that his saber-rattling would make NATO cave to his demands, his plan has failed spectacularly.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has demanded that NATO return to its 1997 status and remove many of the former Warsaw Pact nations that joined the alliance in recent decades. While it isn't likely that Putin would mount an invasion of his Eastern European neighbors yet, there is little denying that he'd like to see many of them back in Moscow's sphere of influence. However, the Polish government is now doing everything it can to ensure that never happens.

It was announced last week that Warsaw is pushing forward with a plan to purchase $6 billion of military hardware and equipment from the United States. That move comes as Russia continues to mass troops on its border with Ukraine. "Some of those forces [are] within 200 miles of the Polish border," U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin noted during a press conference Friday.

Weapons Heading to Poland

According to the U.S. State Department, the newly announced deal would include 250 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks, 250 short-range jamming systems, twenty-six combat recovery vehicles, and around 800 machine guns.

Contractors involved in the sale include BAE Systems, Leonardo DRS, Honeywell, Raytheon Technologies, and Lockheed Martin, DefenseNews reported.

"This proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a NATO Ally that is a force for political stability and economic progress in Europe," the Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced in a release. "The proposed sale will improve Poland's capability to meet current and future threats by providing a credible force that is capable of deterring adversaries and participating in NATO operations. Poland will have no difficulty absorbing this equipment into its armed forces."

Warsaw has been engaged in a sweeping military modernization effort. In 2019, Warsaw inked a $6.5 billion deal to buy thirty-two F-35 fighters, and subsequent agreements have been made for Poland to purchase mobile rocket artillery systems from the United States.

Congressional Support

Many U.S. lawmakers have also shown their support for Poland in the face of Russia’s aggression and posturing.

Last month, Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee pushed Secretary Austin to expedite congressional notification of the weapons sale to help bolster NATO's eastern flank against Russia. However, that sale is still subject to congressional approval.

Lawmakers have been even more vocal in their support this month.

"It is critical that the United States do all we can to reinforce NATO's Eastern Front as Russia's threats to further invade Ukraine grow more troubling by the day," Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement on Friday. "I'm glad to see that these tanks will finally be going to Poland to aide in the defense of NATO."

If Putin was hoping that his saber-rattling would make NATO cave to his demands, his plan has failed spectacularly. Instead of the United States and NATO scaling back their commitment in Eastern Europe, additional forces have been deployed to the region. U.S. paratroopers and F-15 fighters arrived in Poland earlier this month, and Warsaw has only ramped up its military modernization efforts.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

Image: Reuters.

Should Iran Bet Its Future on Russia?

The National Interest - mar, 22/02/2022 - 20:00

Mohammad Javad Mousavizadeh

Iran Russia, Middle East

Officials believe that Russia is a reliable friend of Iran, but public opinion remains divided.

After the Soviet Union fell in 1991, Iran and Russia’s relationship has had its ups and downs. During the Iran-Iraq war, for example, Russia armed the Iraqis against Iran, but, over time, their relations improved, and, today, the two are strategically aligned in opposition to the United States.

Presently, most Iranian officials think that the West block is diminishing in power, and that the East is rising in influence. Thus, despite previously adhering to its mantra of “Neither the East nor the West” that was born from its 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic today is increasingly seeking economic, political, and military collaborations with the major eastern powers.

Indeed, Tehran has grown increasingly closer to China and Russia over the past year. In March 2021, Iran and China signed a twenty-five-year cooperation agreement that caught the West off guard, and Iran attained full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that September. Then, in January 2022, Iran and Russia began finalizing the details of their own twenty-year agreement.

Iran has always depended on Russia and China to circumvent U.S. sanctions, and the three countries have agreed to use their national currencies rather than the dollar in trilateral trade.

According to an Iranian official, trade volume between Russia and Iran has increased 12 percent in weight and 41 percent in value in the first nine months of this Iranian calendar year (March 21-December 21, 2021). Also, the trade figure between the two sides stood at over 3.5 million tons for the same time period.

As a key member of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of action (JCPOA), Russia is poised to greatly benefit from trade with Iran if the deal if revived. Tehran and Moscow are eager to grow their trade volume once U.S. sanctions are lifted. Iran also purchases a variety of Russian weapons, and the two countries are seeking to advance their military cooperation alongside their broader bilateral ties. For example, in January 2022, Russia, China, and Iran held a trilateral naval drill in the Indian Ocean with an official saying they were meant to “strengthen security.” According to reports, Iran is also considering whether to purchase Russian Su-35 fighters.

Iranian officials see Russia as one of their closest allies against U.S. pressures. In recent years, Russia has used its veto powers to protect Iran at the UN Security Council, including over its missile program and the illegal use of Iranian-made missiles by the Houthi insurgency in Yemen. Russia has also cooperated with Iran in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad’s beleaguered government. “Cooperation between Iran and Russia in Syria can become an effective model for developing the countries’ relations in various directions,” Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi said on speaking at the plenary session in the State Duma in his visit to Moscow.

Contrarily, some Iranians view Russians pessimistically. In the last two centuries, the Russian tsardom and then the Soviet Union held a colonial view of Iran and sought to maximize their interests there. During this period, many exploitative concessions in the fields of mining, fisheries, and railways were given to the Russians. Also, Iranians have not forgotten that parts of their country were occupied by the tsars from 1804 to 1813.

In fact, for most Iranians, anti-Russian sentiment originated from anti-Soviet feelings. Although Russia’s overly negative image relates more to tsarist and then Soviet expansionist policies, pessimism towards Russia is an issue that transcends history.

After the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Iranian officials accused Moscow of welcoming sanctions against Iran in order to raise oil prices. “Russia has turned our country into an embankment against the United States. The negative view of a part of the Iranian society towards the Russians has been indisputable, and even today we can observe some of the biased behaviors of our northern neighbor, Russia, against the interests of Iran,” said the former head of the National Security Commission of the Iranian Parliament.

Some analysts believe Russia is not interested in seeing Iran realize its potential as a military power, which explains why Russia has refused to sell its best military weapons to Iran in recent decades. Instead, Russia has only sold outdated weapons, like submarines and fighter jets of previous generations.

Also, Iran could challenge Russia’s position in the European gas market. Russia has the biggest natural gas reserves globally, with Iran in second. Iran took significant steps to export gas to Europe in the 1990s but was deprived of market share by U.S. sanctions. Since then, Russia has attempted to control Iranian gas fields to ensure that Iran will be kept far away from the European gas market.

Not surprisingly, Russia will also not tolerate a new nuclear power in its neighborhood and has sought to stop Iran from producing nuclear weapons and mastering the nuclear fuel cycle. Some observers believe that Russian officials used nuclear cooperation with Iran as a bargaining chip with the United States. For example, Russia agreed to finish Iran‘s Bushehr power plant in 1992 but did not completely implement its commitments on time.

Recently, Mikhail Ulyanov, the Russian envoy to the JCPOA talks in Vienna, has published a photo from his meeting with Robert Malley, the U.S. special envoy for Iran. The picture has provoked a negative reaction from Iranians on social media. Some Iranians believe that, throughout the talks in Vienna, Russia is only pretending to advocate for Iranian interests while actually prioritizing its own in any future agreement.

“The photo shows a paternalistic role of Russia in the talks, and Russian officials are concerned that the nuclear deal could be the starting point for improvement in Iran-US relations in the future,” Javid Ghorbanoghli, a former Iranian diplomat, said.

Most importantly, Iran and Russia share the Caspian Sea, a valuable treasure of many resources, including oil and natural gas reserves. Iran dominated 50 percent of the Caspian Sea during the Soviet era. However, after the fall of the Soviet Union, three post-Soviet states, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have demanded their share from the sea that borders their countries’ territories.

Additionally, Russia has warm relationships with Israel, a stalwart Iranian adversary. Russia has sought to balance its relationship with Iran and Israel at the same time. For example, during the 2020 conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan, Iran urged Russia to stand firm against Israel’s presence in Azerbaijan, but Moscow disregarded Tehran’s concerns.

For Russia, engagement with Israel is more important than its relationship with Iran. While Iran targets Israeli’s interests in the Middle East, Russia has committed itself to preserving Israel’s regional interests. In fact, Jerusalem is a close ally of Moscow while Tehran is only a partner for the Kremlin.

“Comprehensive solutions to the problems of the region must take into account the security interests of Israel as a matter of principle,” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov wrote in an article for Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth daily.

Although Russia wants to prevent a new Iranian-Israeli conflict, the country has persuaded Iran to accept that Russia will pursue closer relations with Israel. In fact, although Israel has made several clandestine attacks against Iran’s nuclear facilities in recent years, Russian officials always have tried to prevent Iran from retaliating against Israel. “Were Iran to attack Israel, Moscow would stand by the Jewish state’s side. In the case of aggression against Israel, not only will the United States stand by Israel’s side—Russia, too, will be on Israel’s side,” said the former Russian deputy ambassador to Israel.

While the Iranian government’s opponents and reformists see Russia as an enemy, Iranian officials believe that Moscow is sympathetic to Iran. Iran’s over-dependence on Russia is dangerous for Tehran, but the Islamic Republic needs both Russia and China to help balance its poor relations with the United States. Both are seizing this opportunity to gain influence while benefitting from sanctions against Tehran.

Based on experience, Russia and China will not support Iran at the expense of their interests with the United States. Thus, it may be time for Iranian officials to ask how much they have gained in return for their concessions to Russia.

Mohammad Javad Mousavizadeh is a journalist and analyst in international affairs and foreign policy. He has written many articles for digital publications worldwide. He is also an English translator for Iranian newspapers and news agencies. Follow him on Twitter @mousavizadehj.

Image: Reuters.

Time to Turn the Tables on Vladimir Putin

The National Interest - mar, 22/02/2022 - 19:23

Dov S. Zakheim

Ukraine Crisis, Europe

Washington fears that too deep involvement on the ground could bring on a war with Russia. Why should Putin not have the same fear?

For years, Vladimir Putin’s detractors have been calling him a mere tactician, rather than the strategist that he is. How wrong they have been. He has positioned Russia in the eastern Mediterranean to an unprecedented degree. Russia now has a long-term lease on a Syrian airbase, Khmeimim, in addition to a new lease on the Tartus naval base, from which the Soviet Navy operated during the Cold War. He has maintained good relations with both Israel and Egypt; the former had no real relations with the USSR, the latter kicked the Soviets out in 1972. His oligarchs and others have flooded Cyprus with their ill-gotten gains. He has a friendly government in Greece.

And now he has consolidated Russia’s position in Europe, with the promise of doing even more. He has added the Ukrainian provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk to the list of so-called independent states—Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transnistria—that only Russia recognizes. He has effectively absorbed Belarus into Russia’s orbit; it is now no more independent than Byelorussia was during the Cold War, its UN vote notwithstanding. Putin no doubt plans the same for Ukraine, which also had its own vote in the UN during the Soviet era.

It must be conceded that the manner in which Putin has gone about squeezing Kyiv is proving highly effective. In continuing to station some 300,000 troops around Ukraine’s borders, including about 50,000 in Belarus for an exercise that seems to have no end, he can both maintain constant pressure on Kyiv and deter it from taking any action against Donetsk and Luhansk. Moreover, he can always create a new pretext for biting off more of Ukraine—beginning with Mariupol and Odessa—whenever he so chooses.

At some point as well, he will absorb the two provinces into Russia, no doubt at the request of their leaders. Americans, in particular, should find such behavior hardly surprising. Texas broke away from Mexico in 1836, declared itself a republic that the United States recognized in 1837, and became the twenty-eighth state eight years later.                  

Putin’s “manifest destiny” clearly is to restore Russia’s Czarist glory. To that end, not only Ukraine, but Finland, the Baltic States, and Poland have good cause for worry. They were all part of the Russian empire in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries; and apart from Finland, until 1918. Putin’s expansionist appetite differs from America’s “manifest destiny” in one critical respect. Whether Texas, or California, or any other state that entered the Union, it was the will of the population to do so. Neither the Baltic States, Poland, nor Finland have any interest in rejoining Russia. Nor do the Soviet Union’s former Warsaw Pact allies, all of whom are now well entrenched inside NATO.

The West is doing far too little to disrupt Putin’s playbook, however.  His argument that he is merely seeking to protect the residents of the breakaway provinces from the predations of Kyiv echoes Adolf Hitler’s demand for Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland, supposedly to protect the Sudeten Germans. And just as Britain’s Neville Chamberlain and France’s Eduard Daladier acquiesced to Hitler’s demand, in order to achieve “peace in our time,” the West, led by the United States, is doing little more than to impose sanctions not on Russia itself, but only on Luhansk and Donetsk. For Putin, such sanctions are little more than a mosquito bite.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has begged the West for far more weapons than he has received to date. Washington has thus far furnished Kyiv with Javelin anti-tank missiles, coastal patrol boats, Humvees, sniper rifles, reconnaissance drones, radar systems, and night vision and radio equipment. Other NATO countries have made smaller contributions; Britain has provided armored vehicles and some 2,000 short-range anti-tank missiles together with trainers. The Baltic States, who view themselves as most vulnerable to a future Russian assault, have provided Javelins as well as Stinger anti-air missiles, which Washington has yet to send. Poland is sending GROM anti-air missiles. Turkey has provided drones that were effective against Russian-backed forces in Libya and against Armenian unions in the latest flare-up in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the other hand. Germany refuses to provide any arms to Kyiv, sending only helmets and a military hospital.

The West and the United States should do more now. Washington fears that too deep involvement on the ground could bring on a war with Russia. Why should Putin not have the same fear? Biden should never have ruled out not sending forces to support Ukraine; surely its freedom is as important for Europe as ejecting Iraq from Kuwait in 1991 was important for international oil prices. Having determined not to aid Kyiv with American troops, the Biden administration should at least provide Ukraine with the additional arms it seeks. These include American helicopters, light armored vehicles, and communications systems; Norwegian SAMs; and Czech self-propelled artillery.

In addition, Washington, and NATO, should not only sanction the breakaway provinces but Russia itself. The current “wait and see” attitude leaves the initiative to Putin. Sanctions, especially on gas and oil supplies can always be lifted if Putin pulls back his forces. Such sanctions, coming on top of Germany’s suspension of its approval of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline, would bite Putin now and force him to react, instead of the other way round. For the past fourteen years, ever since Russia seized Abkhazia and North Ossetia, Putin has been playing a game of chicken with the West, and up to now has succeeded. It is time to turn the tables on him once and for all.

Dov S. Zakheim served as the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller) and Chief Financial Officer for the U.S. Department of Defense from 2001–2004 and as the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Planning and Resources) from 1985-1987. He also served as the DoD’s civilian coordinator for Afghan reconstruction from 2002-2004. He is Vice Chairman of the Center for the National Interest.

Image: Reuters.

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