Diplomacy & Crisis News

His government’s blatant disregard for the environment is defining a new international crime.

Que la santé soit un enjeu économique considérable pour la France, c'est une première évidence inscrite dans la part croissante de la richesse nationale qui lui est consacrée, dans l'importance des activités qui en dépendent pour l'emploi total et dans le poids, en augmentation constante depuis dix (...) / Recherche, Santé, Société, Biotechnologie, Industrie, Économie - 1984/12

The pandemic has ushered in a new economic era. But it’s more familiar than it appears.

A la pointe du polygone de sécheresse du Nordeste, Recife (2,5 millions d'habitants) n'est que la quatrième région métropolitaine du Brésil ; mais c'est elle qui concentre le plus de misère. L'industrialisation n'a pas accompagné, ici, l'exode rural massif de ces trente dernières années (taux (...) / Brésil, Sécurité, Ville - 1986/05

Chile prepares to elect constitutional authors with 50 percent being women, a global milestone.

A survey of academics shows early and overwhelming support for the U.S. president, but he will be tested by China, Russia, and national security issues.

The new U.S. president wants to help, but he may not be prepared to pay the price.

Cease-fire negotiations have proved fruitless as Israeli ground forces join the fighting.

Violence between Israelis and Palestinians is dragging the United States back into a conflict it hoped to avoid as it refocuses attention away from the Middle East.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro de printemps 2021 de Politique étrangère (n° 1/2021). Clément Therme propose une analyse de l’ouvrage d’Ariane M. Tabatai, No Conquest, no Defeat: Iran’s National Security Strategy (Hurst, 2020, 400 pages).

Le titre de l’ouvrage est tiré de l’expérience iranienne de la première guerre du Golfe (1980-1988) dont le bilan pourrait ainsi se résumer par « ni conquête, ni défaite ». Au-delà de l’attention particulière accordée à ce conflit, l’ouvrage a pour ambition de présenter une synthèse historique retraçant la problématique de la sécurité nationale de l’État iranien sur la longue durée. Cette approche privilégiant le temps long permet à l’auteur de ne pas se limiter à la dimension polémique de l’étude de la sécurité nationale iranienne à l’époque de la République islamique (depuis 1979).

Son argumentation sur la permanence des intérêts nationaux du pays avant et après la Révolution islamique de 1979 n’est néanmoins pas nouveau : Olivier Roy avait déjà évoqué ces éléments de continuité dans un article au titre évocateur « Sous le turban, la couronne : la politique extérieure » (publié dans Thermidor en Iran, 1993). Si l’argument n’est en soi pas nouveau, le principal mérite de cette recherche est d’offrir au grand public une vision nuancée de la construction de la notion de sécurité nationale en Iran de l’avènement de la dynastie Qadjar (1796) à nos jours.

La démonstration est convaincante quand il s’agit de montrer que la quête d’autosuffisance (khod kafai) transcende les changements dynastiques et/ou de régimes politiques. De même, l’auteur montre avec justesse la centralité de cette notion d’autosuffisance dans la construction d’une industrie de défense indépendante au lendemain de la première guerre du Golfe. Ariane Tabatabai souligne comment cette guerre a contribué à définir l’identité du régime et, dans le même temps, à montrer les contradictions entre les objectifs de la Révolution islamique et les intérêts nationaux du pays.

Le régime a aussi instrumentalisé cette guerre pour consolider son pouvoir sur la scène politique interne, en réussissant à rallier l’ensemble des Iraniens (des monarchistes aux islamistes à l’exception notable des moudjahidines du peuple) contre l’ennemi extérieur d’alors : l’Irak de Saddam Hussein. Cette guerre diffuse une image de l’Iran se résumant à un régime de mollahs irrationnels travaillant à la fin des temps. Elle renforce également la méfiance de la République islamique vis-à-vis du système international, mais aussi de puissances régionales comme l’Arabie Saoudite – qui soutient financièrement l’Irak. Enfin, force est de constater qu’existe alors une inadéquation des moyens militaires de l’Iran avec l’objectif politique affiché de la guerre jusqu’à la victoire.

Au lendemain de cette expérience historique fondatrice de la vision khomeiniste de la sécurité nationale se met en place un appareil de sécurité fragmenté, tant sur le plan institutionnel que factionnel. Le pragmatisme de la République islamique est donc très lié à cette expérience, qui montre que l’idéologie khomeiniste était certes suffisante pour gagner le combat révolutionnaire, mais ne l’était pas pour garantir la survie de l’État révolutionnaire. Si l’analyse des éléments de continuité est stimulante, on regrettera que l’importance de la dimension idéologique dans la définition de la sécurité nationale après 1979 soit sous-estimée.

Clément Therme

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In the last few years, as politicians, judges, and other campaigners were stymied, the political will to fight graft has eroded.

Washington hopes to reduce spiraling Taliban violence, but it is losing its most potent leverage: troop presence.

The U.S. president outlined big promises on human rights reforms. Critics say he’s already breaking them in Africa.

For Israelis and Palestinians, ethnic violence isn't a temporary problem. It’s a lasting identity.

Biden wants to solidify the pivot to Asia. Congress might have other ideas.

In mixed towns across the country, Arab and Jewish citizens turn on one another.

In a time of crisis, the diaspora shows its strength.

Peter Suciu

British Army, Europe

The British Army has never been the largest in the world, but its numbers are vastly smaller than those of its European partners.

Here's What You Need to Know: Britain's Army continues to scale back.

(This article first appeared in November 2020.)

During the First World War, Germany’s Kaiser Wilhem II was famously dismissive of the British Expeditionary Force (BEF) during the opening stages of the conflict, and he allegedly issued orders to attack and destroy that “contemptible little army.” While it is debatable whether he ever issued such an order, those British troops of the regular army took his threat as a source of pride and dubbed themselves “The Old Contemptibles.”

Now some one hundred and six years later the British Army may not be so contemptible, but it could certainly be smaller if not entirely “little.” Cuts proposed by the Ministry of the Treasury could effectively reduce the number of soldiers by 10,000—making it smaller than Germany’s current standing army, which has some 62,000 soldiers in its ranks

Such cutbacks could actually help address recruiting shortfalls. At the current time, the British Army has about 74,000 troops—8,000 below its target of 82,000. That number is likely to fall to the low 60,000s, should recruitment efforts be halted as about 10,000 or so soldiers retire annually.

The British Army has never been the largest in the world, but its numbers are vastly smaller than those of its European partners. By comparison Spain currently fields some 70,000 soldiers while France has more than 115,000 in its ranks, the Express newspaper reported.

This move to downsize the British Army has been questioned by some in the nation’s government, including Tobias Ellwood, chairman of Parliament’s influential Defence Committee.

“If the MoD is being told simply to reduce troop numbers—before we’ve even confirmed what they are supposed to do—then the Review is back to front,” Ellwood told the Express. “It’s clear our Armed Forces are already over-stretched meeting current commitments. With threats over the next decade expected to increase and diversify now is not the time to let our guard down.”

A Smaller Fighting Force

As the British Treasury is on quite cost cutting crusade, to help save on spending, the British Ministry of Defense has not just announced plans to freeze recruitment, but also to close military bases and mostly notably even cut back on orders of fighter aircraft for the Royal Air Force.

While the UK had agreed to buy forty-eight of the Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters—the short take-off and vertical landing variant of the jet, which is designed for use on aircraft carriers—it may only buy half its initial target of 138 of the stealth aircraft. The 138 figure was confirmed as an ambition in the UK defense review in 2015; however the British military was not contractually obliged to buy more than forty-eight of the aircraft. Instead, Britain could buy only half of its initial target goal of F-35B fighters and acquire around seventy of the stealth aircraft, which would enable it to have sixty in service and keep an additional ten as back-ups in case of damage or malfunction.

Moreover, it isn’t just fewer aircraft that the UK may have in its arsenal.

Earlier this fall it was reported that the British military could scale back the number of tanks it operates—to around 148 tanks, which would reduce the British Army to just two tank regiments including the Royal Lancers and Royal Tank Regiment.

However, the British military has considered ways technology could be used to address the shortage of recruits while also remaining a viable fighting force. This could include the use of robots to fill the ranks and work alongside humans in and around the frontline of a modern battlefield. Mechanical soldiers marching to the front would no doubt be something the Kaiser would have considered quite contemptible.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

This article first appeared in November 2020.

Image: Reuters

Peter Suciu

BMPT, Eurasia

First introduced more than twenty years ago the platform has never been fully embraced by the Russian Military, but it has gone through a number of upgrades.

Here's What You Need to Know: The vehicle proved its effectiveness during recent Russian combat operations in Syria.

(This article first appeared in December 2020.)

The Russian Federation’s BMPT (Tank Support Fighting Vehicle), known as the “Terminator,” has traveled back in time to ensure the future for the machines—but the vehicle has come back from “financial neglect.” First introduced more than twenty years ago the platform has never been fully embraced by the Russian Military, but it has gone through a number of upgrades.

The tracked armored fighting vehicle (AFVs) was developed and manufactured by the Russian-based defense contractor Uralvagonzavod; its primary role is to support tanks and other AFVs in urban areas. It was designed based on combat lessons gained during the Soviet-Afghan War and later the First Chechen War.

The Terminator moniker is unofficial, but it fits given its guardian/hunter role in urban environments, where it can provide fire support for the armor in an offensive, including the task of fighting enemy personnel armed with man-portable anti-tank weapon systems.

Heavily armed and armored for combat in close tight streets the original platform was built on the chassis of a T-72 main battle tank (MBT), and it was armed with four 9M120 Ataka missile launchers, two 30 mm 2A42 autocannons, two AG-17D grenade launchers and a single coaxial 7.62 mm PKTM machine gun. The anti-tank missile system can reach targets of up to six kilometers, while the Terminator is speedy for its size, and can reach speeds of up to 60 kpm. It is operated by a crew of five.

Despite its potential, in 2010 the Defense Ministry abandoned plans to financially support the platform’s development.

Terminator – Return of the Russian AFVs

This month, DefenseNews reported that the Russian military has received the latest batch of the support vehicles for testing after the Terminator had been previously neglected. It reportedly proved its effectiveness during recent Russian combat operations in Syria and the Russian Defense Ministry gave the platform another look.

Russian state television showed the latest version of the vehicles, which are reportedly based on the T-90 chassis, in service with the 90th Tank Division while deployed in the Chelyabinsk region of the Urals.

“The uniqueness of this car is its ability to follow three targets at once with all of its weaponry systems,” Col. Andrey Sigarev, the deputy commander of the tank division, told Channel One television.

Military experts were reported to suggest that a single Terminator could replace a motorized rifle platoon of forty soldiers and six armored vehicles. Whether that is pure bolster isn’t clear, but Russia’s military has only received eight of the updated vehicles, and those will be tested during military exercises.

It has already been described as a “universal soldier” and the Terminator AFV can fight independently against insurgent forces armed with weapons ranging from small arms to grenade launchers and anti-tank missiles, and hold its own against tank platoons equipped with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Austrian accent not included.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com.

This article first appeared in December 2020.

Image: Reuters

Ethen Kim Lieser

Stimulus Check,

One particular situation that the IRS has taken time to point out is if a deceased person received a payment. In fact, the agency has sent out a notice that spouses or relatives will need to return the stimulus checks to one of its offices.

Amid another hectic tax season, the Internal Revenue Service has been working around the clock to disburse tens of millions of coronavirus stimulus checks to struggling Americans.

But in the effort to fast-track these $1,400 payments under the American Rescue Plan, some of the checks ended up heading into the bank accounts or mailboxes of certain individuals who didn’t necessarily deserve them.

One particular situation that the IRS has taken time to point out is if a deceased person received a payment. In fact, the agency has sent out a notice that spouses or relatives will need to return the stimulus checks to one of its offices.

However, the IRS added that this notice only affects taxpayers who passed away before January 1, 2021. Moreover, the extra $1,400 per dependent is also not to be spent for a parent who died before that date.

If the deceased spouse, though, was part of a joint return, then the surviving individual may keep the cash. Keep in mind that the same holds true if the deceased was a married member of the U.S. military. And if a stimulus payment has both of the husband and wife’s names on it, the surviving spouse may keep the funds but must include a letter requesting a new check be reissued with only his or her name on it.

If one chooses to return the stimulus funds, it is relatively straightforward. Just write “void” in the endorsement section on the back of the check and then mail it via USPS to a local IRS location. Don’t forget that they should also write a brief explanation stating the reason for returning the payment.

If the money was already direct deposited into a bank account, then one can mail off a personal check or money order to an IRS location. Just make it payable to “U.S. Treasury” and write “Third EIP” and a personal taxpayer identification number on the check.

Also, take note that for the expanded child tax credits heading out in July, an overpayment of these funds may force taxpayers to pay up come tax season next year. Understand that these credits are advanced payments that are largely based off the IRS’ estimates on available data, such as overall income, marital status, and number and age of qualifying dependent children.

But if any outdated or inaccurate data are used, they could potentially generate an overpayment of credit—meaning that the impacted individual will be responsible for any difference in the final amount.

The IRS has announced that a portal will eventually be launched for the child tax credit payments so that taxpayers’ information can be added or updated more conveniently.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Minneapolis-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn.