Diplomacy & Crisis News

Trevor Filseth

economy, Americas

Social Security is a key government program that has helped millions of seniors in the United States to enjoy their retirement without fear of running out of money.

Here's What You Need to Remember: Social Security reform has long been regarded as a “third rail” of American politics—resulting in lethal consequences for politicians that try to touch it. However, an overnight 20 percent cut in retirees’ Social Security benefits would be absolutely unthinkable.

Social Security is a key government program that has helped millions of seniors in the United States to enjoy their retirement without fear of running out of money. While the benefits, averaging $1,500 per month apiece, cannot assure anyone a comfortable life without supplementary income from a nest egg, they can keep elderly retirees from worrying about the most basic financial concerns, such as access to money for food or rent. 

Unfortunately, there is a problem with Social Security: it is running out of money. 

The cause for this is simple. The Social Security Administration operates a pair of trust funds to pay for the ongoing benefits—one devoted to retirement benefits, the other to disability benefits, both of which the SSA has been tasked with managing. Since 1935, the year that the Social Security Administration was created, the population of the United States has historically been skewed toward the young over the old. Because young people pay into the Social Security trust fund, in the form of Social Security tax revenue, and old people withdraw from it, in the form of benefits, the proportion of young to old determines the long-term financial viability of the trust fund; an abundance of young people contributing taxes increases the size of the trust fund, while an abundance of retired beneficiaries diminishes it. 

Unfortunately, after the Baby Boomer generation—born 1946 through 1964—entered retirement, the trust fund began to lose money each year. At its current rate of depletion, the fund is estimated to run out by 2035. 

The fear that Social Security will collapse is vastly overstated. The U.S. workforce continues to pay Social Security taxes, which means the SSA has a reliable year-by-year inflow of cash that it can use to cover benefits as needed. However, by collecting taxes alone, the SSA will not be able to pay for all existing benefits; if nothing else changes, seniors’ benefits will simply have to be cut by roughly 20 percent to cover the shortfall. 

Social Security reform has long been regarded as a “third rail” of American politics—resulting in lethal consequences for politicians that try to touch it. However, an overnight 20 percent cut in retirees’ Social Security benefits would be absolutely unthinkable. Given Social Security’s massive popularity among Americans, and the vast influence of the program’s foremost defender, the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) on Capitol Hill, there is little doubt that a solution will be worked out in advance. This solution will most likely raise Social Security taxes and possibly marginally cut existing or future benefits, although most Americans and the AARP have opposed this. 

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for the National Interest. This article is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters

James Holmes

China, Asia

PLA Navy flattops at Gwadar: that prospect should give Indians pause.

Here's What You Need to Know: Indian dignitaries seem to think China can’t mount a naval threat to India in the Indian Ocean, whereas I think it could but has little incentive to do so. Change the incentives, though, and the situation could change abruptly—to India’s detriment.

There are worse things than fleeing the bleak New England midwinter for warmer climes—such as Jaipur, India’s famed “Pink City.” So cold was it when I departed Providence in February 2016 that the nozzle on my plane’s fuel hose froze shut, grounding the plane until the crew could unfreeze it.

Frolicking around in shirtsleeves at a Mughal dynasty fort in Rajasthan was a welcome relief from frostbite. The occasion for the trip, though, was three days of “quad-plus dialogue” about sundry topics important to Indian Ocean powers. The “quad,” or standing membership for these unofficial “track II” gatherings, refers to India, Australia, Japan and the United States. Sri Lanka is the “plus,” or rotating participant, for this year.

Maritime governance in the Pacific and Indian oceans was the subject of my panel. China came up repeatedly during the gathering, which should shock no one. After all, China—a great power on the make—constitutes a menace to freedom of the seas in East Asia. Communist Party apparatchiks and ordinary Chinese alike seem to view water and sky as territory to be occupied, controlled and ruled through domestic law. And the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), predictably, is militarizing the South China Sea with verve, protestations from top leaders notwithstanding.

How to manage a great-power challenge to nautical freedom is a question of a higher order altogether than how to police the Indian Ocean. Think about it. Ne’er-do-wells like corsairs, weapons traffickers and seagoing terrorists are the main threats to free navigation in maritime South Asia. Everyone, including Beijing, can agree to work together to combat brigandage in the Gulf of Aden or Bay of Bengal, expanses largely free of great-power entanglements. China plays reasonably well with others to the west of Malacca.

To date, anyway. During the Q and A following our panel, I got into a cordial shouting match with a retired Indian admiral and general about how long the present era of good feelings would endure. (We almost had to resort to pistols at daybreak.) The debate boils down to this: When will the PLA Navy be strong enough to overpower the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean, an expanse that New Delhi considers an Indian preserve, if Beijing gives the word?

The good news: we all agreed that doom is not nigh. While occasionally irksome, the burgeoning PLA Navy presence in regional waters poses little threat for now. But we arrived at that happy conclusion by different routes, and drew different implications from it. The Indian delegates cited shortfalls in Chinese “capability,” opining that it will take the PLA Navy “at least fifteen years” to station a standing, battle-worthy naval squadron in the Indian Ocean. Such a sanguine view rules out a Chinese threat; it lulls Indians.

That might not be such a good thing, considering the growth of Chinese military might over the past couple of decades. Nonetheless, let’s parse the optimists’ view. What constitutes “capability” for the PLA Navy? By that, Indians must be referring to some amalgam of technologically sophisticated hardware; the number of ships, planes and armaments cranked out by defense production lines or procured abroad; and the seamanship, tactical prowess and élan displayed by the mariners who operate this shiny new kit.

“Capability” also encompasses logistics—especially when a navy contemplates instituting a standing presence in distant seas. Modern navies are far from self-sufficient. Ships of war, even nuclear-powered ones, cannot ply the briny main for long without a ready supply of bullets, beans and black oil. That’s U.S. Navy shorthand for the manifold stores demanded by fuel- and maintenance-intensive vessels. And ships and warplanes need regular upkeep. It’s most convenient to perform maintenance in the theater—close to likely hotspots—rather than subject hulls and crews to long voyages back home for overhaul.

To deploy a fleet permanently to remote waterways, in short, a navy needs bases—facilities complete with supply and ammunition depots, dry docks, all manner of workshops, and more. Without one or more lavishly appointed naval stations, Beijing will find it hard to stage more than a fitful presence in the Indian Ocean.

It may be taking steps to correct the logistical shortfall. Last month, engineers broke ground on what reporters touted as China’s first overseas naval base, at Djibouti in East Africa. Well, maybe. In all likelihood the facility will remain a more humble affair than American naval stations such as Yokosuka and Sasebo, which anchor the U.S. Seventh Fleet presence in Japan. It’s worth pointing out, moreover, that the U.S. Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force also operate out of Djibouti.

And China does need some sort of logistical hub. The PLA Navy generally keeps a three-ship squadron on station for antipiracy duty. A small flotilla demands logistical support, but can get by without a true naval base. Each flotilla rotates back home once another takes its place. Returning ships undergo major maintenance at Chinese shipyards.

Nevertheless, construction at Djibouti furnishes an index for tracking China’s naval ambitions in the Indian Ocean. Monitoring what Chinese engineers build and how seafarers use it may help fellow Indian Ocean powers glimpse what comes next for the PLA Navy in the region. Minimal infrastructure implies a transitory presence, commensurate with police duty, while major infrastructure suggests something bigger. Beijing may want to lay the groundwork for a presence aimed less at scouring the sea of lawbreakers and more at entrenching Chinese naval power in South Asia.

Indians afford such developments close scrutiny, as they have for at least a decade. I lost count of the number of times various quad-plus interlocutors stated, more or less as fact, that China is fashioning a “string of pearls” in the region. That’s the commonplace imagery for an array of Chinese naval bases. It could mean full-fledged naval stations. It could connote lesser arrangements—say, agreements with coastal-state governments that open their seaports to China, letting PLA Navy vessels tarry there routinely but impermanently.

Or a string of pearls could combine both types of arrangements, much as U.S. Navy fleets make their homes at hubs like Yokosuka and Bahrain, yet call at harbors like Singapore for sustenance and R&R from time to time.

And China? It’s doubtful that China is operating under some grand plan to make itself master of the Indian Ocean. In all likelihood, Beijing is amassing options for itself should it someday see the need for a standing presence in the region. Bankrolling development of strategically located seaports like Gwadar in western Pakistan, or Colombo in Sri Lanka, stores up goodwill with prospective host nations while presumably creating a sense of indebtedness on their governments’ part. China could call in such favors during future negotiations over naval access.

It would consolidate its strategic position in the Indian Ocean in the process. The phrase string of pearls, accordingly, has taken on sinister overtones for many Indian observers. One quad-plus delegate upbraided China for encroaching on India’s environs, voicing a wish that New Delhi and friendly governments will prod Beijing to keep its naval expeditions in the region brief, episodic and geared to specific missions, such as succoring those struck by natural disasters. Indians, in short, want China to forego permanent bases—the logistical pillar of sea power.

One Chinese ship type in particular rankles with Indians: submarines. The Indian delegates at Jaipur fretted repeatedly at PLA Navy subs’ presence in regional waters. Beijing has pushed the official line that Chinese boats cruise the Indian Ocean to battle piracy. Indians regard this as a charade. Undersea craft are decidedly suboptimal platforms for chasing speedboats around the Gulf of Aden. Skeptical Indians thus view Beijing’s story as flimsy cover for missions that are meant to acquaint Chinese submariners with future patrol grounds.

Taken in total, this seems to be what Indians mean by capability: naval hardware, access to seaports, the human factor and familiarity with operating terrain. Whether it would really take the PLA Navy fifteen years to amass the makings of Indian Ocean sea power, however, remains an open question. Resolute nations have built great regional navies from scratch in about fifteen years, global navies in about thirty—and China is hardly starting from scratch, two decades into its naval enterprise. The Indian take on China’s maritime prospects seems unduly upbeat.

As for me, I’d say Beijing could stage a potent force in the Indian Ocean almost overnight—if it were prepared to make the PLA Navy battle fleet an expeditionary fleet, and thus if it accepted major risk to its interests and purposes in the China seas. And, of course, such a strategy would turn on whether regional partners proved willing to host such an imposing fleet while riling up India, South Asia’s natural hegemon.

The bottom line is that, if China trusted its anti-access/area-denial weaponry to fend off competitors closer to home, then it could outmatch the Indian Navy in its home region. Do the arithmetic: the PLA Navy boasts the numbers to do so.

That’s a lot of ifs, though. Diverting most of the navy would leave the China seas largely unguarded by heavy forces—an unappealing prospect for Beijing. China will keep its strategic priorities straight unless something truly dire happens in the Indian Ocean, reconciling the leadership to hazards at which it would usually blanch. Those priorities lie mainly off the East Asian coast—mandating that the fleet remain close to home to defend them.

In short, strategy—not capability per se—will dissuade China’s leadership from mounting a major naval presence in South Asia. Look to the strategic canon to see why. Sea-power sage Alfred Thayer Mahan explains how to size fleets for battle. Says Mahan, naval officialdom must apportion a fleet enough ships and armaments to “fight, with reasonable chances of success, the largest force likely to be brought against it.” Shortchanging a formation on numbers or capability, or ignoring what a foe is apt to do with its navy, courts defeat and disaster.

All well and good. Estimating relative combat power is far from simple, but it is doable: tabulate the quality and quantity of platforms deployed by each contender, estimate how a foe’s tactics and skill measure up to yours, add a little surplus, and you have a contingent that can enter the lists with reasonable prospects of success. But what about Mahan’s element of probability? How big a fraction of its strength is that opponent likely to commit to potential scenes of action?

Do some red-teaming to find out. Get to know the adversary and the logic impelling its decision calculus. For that, there’s no better than to start with another of the greats, a man who scarcely acknowledged that oceans and seas exist—namely, Prussia’s Carl von Clausewitz. Clausewitz was forever urging statesmen and generals to stay on target. Once military leaders define an enemy’s “center of gravity,” they should rain “blow after blow” against that “hub of all power and movement” until the foe either calls “uncle” or can no longer put up a fight.

Clausewitz’s monomania primed him to set a high standard for diverting manpower and material into secondary theaters or operations. A combatant, he writes, should refrain from lesser pursuits unless deemed “exceptionally rewarding.” But even if the likely rewards appear exceptional, generals should abjure secondary endeavors unless undertaking them won’t imperil the main theater. For Clausewitz, then, only “decisive superiority” of forces in the main theater warrants detaching resources for peripheral efforts. Stay on target!

And China? It’s far from clear that the PLA Navy commands decisive superiority in the China seas, even when backed up by shore-based fire support—as it is when cruising within reach of airfields and missile batteries arrayed along the mainland’s coastlines. Nor does China stand to gain anything exceptional in the Indian Ocean at present. Yes, Beijing cares deeply about the safety of merchantmen crisscrossing the Indian Ocean. But the PLA Navy can help ward off nonstate scourges like pirates without running undue risk in East Asia—as it has since joining the antipiracy expedition seven years ago. Modest rewards, for modest expenditure of naval resources.

Here’s the crux of our dispute in Jaipur: the Indian dignitaries seem to think China can’t mount a naval threat to India in the Indian Ocean, whereas I think it could but has little incentive to do so. Change the incentives, though, and the situation could change abruptly—to India’s detriment. Never discount the possibility of a “Black Swan.” And bear in mind that Clausewitzian logic will prove less and less forbidding for Beijing over time. As the PLA Navy matures and swells in numbers, China may come to command decisive superiority in the most crucial theater (the Western Pacific) with forces to spare for Indian Ocean adventures. The ghosts of Clausewitz and Mahan will smile.

So the quad-plus dialogue exposed a significant difference in perspectives—one worth belaboring. Let’s not assume away the potential of Chinese sea power, and let’s not assume away Chinese political resolve, the instigator for martial enterprises. Last week one leading Chinese commentator, Fudan University’s Shen Dingli, prophesied that Beijing could summon the resolve to dispatch aircraft-carrier task forces to the Indian Ocean to “hurt” India. If India joins a seafaring league alongside America and its allies, says Shen, “of course we can put a navy at your doorstep.”

PLA Navy flattops at Gwadar: that prospect should give Indians pause.

James Holmes is Professor of Strategy at the Naval War College and coauthor of Red Star over the Pacific and Indian Naval Strategy in the 21st Century. The views voiced here are his alone.

This article first appeared in March 2016.

Image: Wikipedia.

What the war on terror cost America.

Ethen Kim Lieser

economy, Americas

For millions of hardworking parents out there, the disbursement of the newest payment was indeed welcome news. However, there were still reports of some eligible parents who have yet to see the money land in their bank accounts.

Here's What You Need to Remember: Be aware that babies born this year will indeed make parents eligible for the credits if an extra step is taken. On the aforementioned Child Tax Credit Update Portal, parents are able to report any newborn throughout the year, and by doing this, the payment should automatically be sent out.  

The Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department on Friday confirmed that the second batch of advance monthly payments from the expanded child tax credits was issued to approximately thirty-six million American families. 

Approved under President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan, the expanded credits allow eligible parents to net as much as $3,600 per year for a child under the age of six and up to $3,000 for children between ages six and seventeen. That means a $250 or a $300 payment for each child will be paid out on a monthly basis through the end of 2021.   

For millions of hardworking parents out there, the disbursement of the newest payment was indeed welcome news. However, there were still reports of some eligible parents who have yet to see the money land in their bank accounts.

Handy Portals

According to the IRS, concerned individuals have the option to utilize the Child Tax Credit Update Portal to see their monthly payment history. If the payments are indeed pending, then that information should be present on that page. Also, if the payment was said to be already delivered, then make sure to double-check that the home address and banking information, such as the account and routing numbers, are free of mistakes. 

Do take note that the same portal can be used to change how one would like to be paid, such as from paper checks to direct deposit. It offers other handy options, too, such as opting out of receiving the monthly payments so that they could potentially be eligible for a one-time lump sum during tax season next year.

For those people who haven’t filed their federal tax returns yet, know that the Non-filer Sign-up Tool should definitely be the go-to stop to give the IRS the required information so that it can promptly issue the funds.  

Bank Account Active? 

Keep in mind that there could be other reasons why one has yet to receive their child tax credit payment. First, it is entirely possible that the IRS tried to direct deposit the cash into a closed or inactive bank account.  

If the tax agency indeed attempted this, then the deposit will likely be rejected—which would initiate the mailing out of a paper check via the post office to the home address on record. This process could take a couple of weeks in some instances.  

Moreover, be aware that babies born this year will indeed make parents eligible for the credits if an extra step is taken. On the aforementioned Child Tax Credit Update Portal, parents are able to report any newborn throughout the year, and by doing this, the payment should automatically be sent out.  

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters

Just because the Taliban won doesn’t mean jihadis will.

Ethen Kim Lieser

Child Tax Credit, Americas

A report by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities suggests that about four million children from low-income families are at risk of missing out on the recurring monthly payments if the tax agency does not get that necessary personal and financial information on time.

Here's What You Need to Remember: Broken down, what this all means is that a $250 or a $300 payment for each child will be deposited into the bank accounts of parents each and every month through the end of 2021—and possibly for years to come if the American Families Plan is ever green-lighted by Congress.

The Internal Revenue Service and the U.S. Treasury Department announced on Friday that the second batch of advance monthly payments worth about $15 billion from the expanded child tax credits were issued to thirty-six million families. 

The agencies added that “like the first payments, the vast majority of families will receive these payments by direct deposit,” according to an IRS press statement.

However, “the IRS wants to alert some recipients who received direct deposits in July that they will receive the August payments by mail. Due to an issue expected to be resolved by the September payments, a percentage of these recipients—less than 15 percent—who received payments by direct deposit in July will be mailed paper checks for the August payment. For those affected, no additional action is needed for the September payment to be issued by direct deposit,” the statement explained.

The next payments are slated to head out on the fifteenth of every month through December.  

Focus on Low-Income Households 

The IRS has also made it known that “it’s not too late for low-income families to sign up for advance CTC payments,” urging people to take advantage of the Non-filer Sign-up Tool that will give the IRS the necessary information—such as an address and routing and bank account numbers—to promptly disburse the funds.

Being able to reach the nation’s poorest households has been a primary goal of the agency, and in an effort to achieve that, it has partnered with nonprofit organizations, churches, and community groups to get the word out regarding the new tax credits.

“This important new tax change affects millions of families across the nation, and the IRS wants to do everything it can to help people get the payments,” IRS Wage & Investment Commissioner Ken Corbin, who also serves as the agency’s Chief Taxpayer Experience Officer, noted in a press statement. “Many people miss out on tax benefits simply because they don’t file a tax return.”

A report by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities suggests that about four million children from low-income families are at risk of missing out on the recurring monthly payments if the tax agency does not get that necessary personal and financial information on time.

Payments Broken Down

These child tax credit payments—seen by many as being similar to another round of stimulus checks—were approved under President Joe Biden’s highly ambitious American Rescue Plan, which now allows eligible parents to receive as much as $3,600 per year for a child under the age of six and up to $3,000 for children between ages six and seventeen.

Broken down, what this all means is that a $250 or a $300 payment for each child will be deposited into the bank accounts of parents each and every month through the end of 2021—and possibly for years to come if the American Families Plan is ever green-lighted by Congress.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article is being republished due to reader interest.  

Image: Reuters

Peter Suciu

Afghanistan, Asia

Wars are costly affairs though.

As American's longest war comes to an end, the Taliban have essentially retaken control of the nation, and for the insurgent forces, it is almost as if the past twenty years didn't matter. 

Their resolve was greater and Kabul is under their control again.  

The lives of women will likely change, TV and social media will likely be banned, and the country will fall into its old ways. Whether the country once again harbors terrorist groups like Al Qaeda is a variable that can't truly be answered yet, while other questions will likely remain just as elusive to determine an answer for now.

It will forever be impossible to ever know “if it was worth it” in regards to the U.S.-led coalition invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001.

The Human Cost 

While the war will likely be debated for years to come, possibly with many different opinions, it is even now possible to put the cost of it in perspective.  

According to figures from the Associated Press, 2,448 U.S. service members gave their lives, while the BBC reported that more than 450 British military personnel were killed. In total, since the war against the Taliban began in 2001, there have been more than 3,500 coalition deaths—while a further 20,660 U.S. personnel were injured in action.

Upwards of 66,000 Afghan national military and police personnel were also killed through April of this year. A total of 444 aid workers and 72 journalists also saw their lives cut shot in Afghanistan since 2001.

Additionally, according to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, some 111,000 civilians have been killed or injured since it became recording the numbers in 2009. That would not account for those injured or killed in the years between 2001 and 2008, nor from the most recent fighting.

The Financial Burden 

Wars are costly affairs, and according to U.S. Department of Defense figures, between October 2001 until September 2019, the total military expenditure in Afghanistan reached $778 billion; meanwhile, the U.S. State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development spent $44 billion on reconstruction projects.

However, that number doesn't include the spending in Pakistan, which has been used as a base for Afghan-related operations. In total, based on figures from a Brown University study from 2019, the total spending was $978 billion.

Moreover, before the withdrawal of forces was completed, the United States and NATO had pledged to provide the Afghan government with $4 billion until 2024 to fund the Afghan military. However, given that the country has fallen to the Taliban, it is likely NATO will save on that amount!

The Lingering Human Toll 

Even as the United States has withdrawn from Afghanistan, and continues to scale back in Iraq, a Harvard University’s Kennedy School and Brown University Costs of War project study found that the United States will continue to pay for the health care, disability, burial and other costs for the roughly four million Afghanistan and Iraq veterans, costing taxpayers some $2 trillion.  

Those costs will only peak after 2048, according to the Associated Press.  

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com. 

Image: Reuters

Trevor Filseth

Retirement, Americas

The income from the benefits is designed to replace 40 percent of a person’s pre-retirement income, according to the Social Security Administration itself. But 40 percent of one’s pre-retirement income is not enough for most Americans to live comfortably on, especially without other sources of money.

Here's What You Need to Remember:  If a person is able to save $5,000 per year from the age of twenty-five until the age of seventy and deposit it into a Roth IRA with an average yearly return of 8 percent, by the age of seventy, they will be sitting on more than $2 million, although this amount will decrease somewhat in real terms because of inflation.

When Americans reach retirement age, it is expected that they will file for Social Security, which pays a reliable monthly benefit for the rest of their life. The program, created by President Franklin D. Roosevelt as part of the New Deal in 1935, was regarded as an effective anti-poverty program for elderly Americans, and quickly became one of the most popular government programs in the United States. It still is; according to AARP, a senior citizens’ advocacy group, 96 percent of Americans want to continue or increase the payments.

However, while Social Security unquestionably keeps elderly Americans out of poverty, its ability to provide for them above a basic level is limited. The income from the benefits is designed to replace 40 percent of a person’s pre-retirement income, according to the Social Security Administration itself. But 40 percent of one’s pre-retirement income is not enough for most Americans to live comfortably on, especially without other sources of money.

There are some ways that this income can be supplemented. A key way is to wait as long as possible to claim benefits. Waiting until the age of seventy to file for Social Security, for instance, can increase the monthly payments by 25 to 30 percent. Retiring later can also help a person increase the size of their benefits, since the monthly amount is based on the thirty-five highest-paying years of a person’s career and most people make more money at the end of their careers than at the beginning.

Even so, these tricks can only increase the amount by so far. While it is possible to live on nothing except Social Security payments, the limited quality of life that they provide is not what many people hope for in their retirement. To enjoy a more comfortable retirement, it is vital for families to save money and create a nest egg.

There are several ways that this can be done, but the two most effective are by opening a 401(k) and a Roth IRA account during one’s career. Although these differ slightly, they are both essentially tax-free retirement accounts that can be invested during one’s life. Although they cannot be withdrawn until a person’s retirement, they can grow considerably if invested in a relatively safe fund with a reasonable rate of return—such as an S&P 500 index fund, which averages a return of 10 percent per year.

Consider the following. If a person is able to save $5,000 per year from the age of twenty-five until the age of seventy and deposit it into a Roth IRA with an average yearly return of 8 percent, by the age of seventy, they will be sitting on more than $2 million, although this amount will decrease somewhat in real terms because of inflation.

Even if the annual deposit is decreased to only $2,000, the amount is still more than $800,000—and in both scenarios, the retirees will receive Social Security payments on top of this.

Trevor Filseth is a current and foreign affairs writer for The National Interest. This article is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters.

Russia signals an openness to working with the Taliban.

Stephen Silver

Pandemic, Americas

The California doctor was charged with one count each of wire fraud and of false statements related to health care matters.

As vaccine mandates begin to go into effect everywhere from New York City restaurants to the Las Vegas Raiders’ home stadium to next January’s International CES, the idea is to incentivize people to get vaccinated. 

This has, as expected, led to demand for fake vaccine cards, or even repurposing real ones for sale. And now we have one of the first major arrests for carrying out such a scheme. 

Recently, a Chicago pharmacist was arrested for selling more than one hundred coronavirus vaccination cards to eleven buyers on eBay. The thirty-four-year-old man sold the cards for $10 each, according to the Department of Justice. He was charged with twelve counts of theft of government property. 

The pharmacist worked at a company that distributed vaccines for the coronavirus.  

It’s important to note that while there has been concern about the forgery of the vaccine cards, the Chicago case concerned vaccination cards that are genuine.

“We take seriously, and will vigorously investigate, any criminal offense that contributes to the distrust around vaccines and vaccination status,” Assistant Attorney General Kenneth A. Polite Jr. of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division, said in a press statement. “The Department of Justice and its law enforcement partners are committed to protecting the American people from these offenses during this national emergency.” 

“Knowingly selling COVID vaccination cards to unvaccinated individuals puts millions of Americans at risk of serious injury or death,” Special Agent in Charge Emmerson Buie Jr. of the FBI’s Chicago Field Office said in the press statement. “To put such a small price on the safety of our nation is not only an insult to those who are doing their part in the fight to stop COVID-19, but a federal crime with serious consequences.”

Back in July, a naturopathic doctor in California was arrested and charged with both selling “homeoprophylaxis immunization pellets” and with falsifying coronavirus vaccination cards.  

The California doctor was charged with one count each of wire fraud and of false statements related to health care matters, in what the federal government described as “the first federal criminal fraud prosecution related to homeoprophylaxis immunizations and fraudulent Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 vaccination record cards.” 

Back in April, months before the California case, a group of state attorneys general wrote a letter to the CEOs of Twitter, eBay, and Shopify, warning of the “deceptive marketing and sales of fake COVID vaccine cards.”  

“It has come to our attention that your platforms are being used to market and sell blank or fraudulently completed COVID vaccine cards bearing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention logo,” the letter stated. “We are deeply concerned about this use of your platforms to spread false and misleading information regarding COVID vaccines. The false and deceptive marketing and sales of fake COVID vaccine cards threatens the health of our communities, slows progress in getting our residents protected from the virus, and are a violation of the laws of many states.” 

Stephen Silver, a technology writer for the National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver. 

Image: Reuters

Ethen Kim Lieser

Tax Refund,

These particular refunds are due to President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which was able to waive federal tax on up to $10,200 of unemployment benefits, or $20,400 for married couples filing jointly, that were received by taxpayers last year. Unemployment benefits are generally treated as taxable income, according to the tax agency.

Here's What You Need to Remember: According to the National Taxpayer Advocate, “this filing season was the quintessential definition of a perfect storm—a particularly bad or critical state of affairs, arising from several negative and unpredictable factors—resulting in tens of millions of taxpayers experiencing hardship and uncertainty in trying to reach a live assistor.

It has, unfortunately, been the same old story for the Internal Revenue Service and the Treasury Department, which have for months have been struggling to keep up with their ongoing responsibilities to promptly issue the various government-issued payments to eligible Americans.

Do take note that just a few weeks ago, the agencies were able to disburse a sizeable batch of 1.5 million refunds averaging $1,686 from 2020 unemployment benefits—and more checks are slated to head out to Americans this month. 

These particular refunds are due to President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which was able to waive federal tax on up to $10,200 of unemployment benefits, or $20,400 for married couples filing jointly, that were received by taxpayers last year. Unemployment benefits are generally treated as taxable income, according to the tax agency.

The IRS has noted that since May, it has issued in total nearly nine million unemployment refunds with a value of more than $10 billion.

“The IRS will continue reviewing and adjusting tax returns in this category this summer,” the tax agency said in a release. “The IRS continues to review the simplest returns and then turns to more complex returns.”

Refunds Sent Out Automatically

In order to receive the refunds, for most Americans, there is no action needed on their part. The IRS has confirmed that it will automatically adjust tax returns if individuals are indeed eligible for any cash refund.

“Because the [approval of the refund] occurred after some people filed their taxes, the IRS will take steps in the spring and summer to make the appropriate change to their return, which may result in a refund,” the agency states.

In addition, “taxpayers will receive letters from the IRS, generally within thirty days of the adjustment, informing them of what kind of adjustment was made (such as refund, payment of IRS debt payment or payment offset for other authorized debts) and the amount of the adjustment.”

IRS Overwhelmed

Do understand that throughout the past several months, the IRS has worked around the clock to issue tens of millions of $1,400 stimulus checks, the monthly expanded child tax credits, and “plus-up” payments—not to mention the traditional refunds from federal tax returns.

Because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and staff shortages, the agency has reported that it still has more than thirty-five million individual and business tax returns to process—a massive backlog that is believed to be four times larger compared to the end of the 2019 filing season.

According to the National Taxpayer Advocate, “this filing season was the quintessential definition of a perfect storm—a particularly bad or critical state of affairs, arising from several negative and unpredictable factors—resulting in tens of millions of taxpayers experiencing hardship and uncertainty in trying to reach a live assistor. … In the coming months, the IRS must work through its backlog of tax returns and be current in processing its correspondence while focusing on rebuilding itself to become a more efficient and taxpayer-centric organization.”

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters

Kabul’s swift collapse leaves New Delhi with significant security concerns.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Tuesday urged countries to step up support to Haiti as the country recovers from a deadly earthquake under the clouds of a tropical storm.  

The fall of Afghanistan reveals hard truths about U.S. talk of human rights.

Ethen Kim Lieser

economy, Americas

“Identity theft is one of the fastest growing crimes in America,” the Social Security Administration claims on its website.  

Here's What You Need to Remember: “Question whether the other person or organization truly needs to know your child's SSN. And ask whether you can share other information instead. Keep private documents secure. You may also want to get a safe and keep all your private documents locked up, including birth certificates, Social Security cards and tax forms.”

As a proud parent of however many children one may have, it might never have crossed one’s mind why fraudsters would want to get their hands on Social Security numbers of minors.

But a 2018 child identity fraud study conducted by Javelin Strategy and Research shows that more than one million children, with the majority being seven years old or younger, fell victim to identity fraud the previous year. 

“Identity theft is one of the fastest growing crimes in America,” the Social Security Administration claims on its website.  

The research further revealed that children were more likely to become victims of identity theft than adults following a data breach.  

“These breaches can occur at different organizations that commonly have children’s data, including schools, doctors’ offices, daycares, and summer camps. Thieves may also target parents and try to get them to share their children’s Social Security number and other personal information,“ according to the financial site myFICO. “These attacks could come in a variety of forms, from phishing emails to dumpster diving. As is always the case, be cautious about what you share online and over the phone.“

Moreover, in what may be a surprise, “the fraudster isn’t always a stranger. In many cases, the thief may be a parent, family friend or relative who has access to the child’s SSN. Familiar fraud can be particularly difficult to deal with as you might not want to press charges against a close friend or family member,” it adds.  

Children Targeted

Children aren’t able to obtain a bank loan or sign up for a credit card on their own, but the lack of credit history could work in the favor of thieves.  

“In a sense, they’re clean slates. Plus, parents rarely try to check their child’s credit, which means the fraud might not be detected right away,” according to my FICO. 

“Rather than using the child’s identity directly, fraudsters often use a stolen SSN to create a synthetic identity,” the financial website states. “To do this, they combine the real SSN with fake identifiers, such as a fake name and date of birth. They can then use the synthetic identity in many of the same ways, but there’s even less of a chance that the SSN holder will find out. And, in some cases, the same stolen SSN gets used to create dozens of synthetic IDs.” 

Preventing Identity Theft

For most victims of child identity theft, the parents necessarily won’t be aware until years later—perhaps when the minor tries to get his or her first bank account or loan. But before having to be mired in such an unsavory situation, there are indeed steps that parents can take right now to prevent identity theft.

“Limit what you share about your children on social media. While you may want to share big announcements and pictures online, the information (such as their birthday) could be compromising,” the website asserts.

“Don’t share their SSN,” the website warns. “Question whether the other person or organization truly needs to know your child's SSN. And ask whether you can share other information instead. Keep private documents secure. You may also want to get a safe and keep all your private documents locked up, including birth certificates, Social Security cards and tax forms.”

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article is being republished due to reader interest.  

Image: Reuters

Afghanistan faces a “cultural disaster”, following the fall of Kabul to Taliban forces, a UN Special Rapporteur said on Tuesday, in a statement urging countries to provide urgent assistance to human rights defenders, including those working on women’s and cultural rights, as well as artists, trying to flee the country. 

Ethen Kim Lieser

economy,

The 6.2 percent bump may be music to the ears of many Social Security recipients, but according to the financial site Motley Fool, the program has been stingy on its adjustments for far too many years.

Here's What You Need to Remember: It’s important that current workers recognize the program’s limitations and take steps to save aggressively for retirement on their own. Consistently funding an IRA or 401(k) plan could make it so that seniors are less reliant on Social Security—and more financially stable once their time in the workforce comes to an end.

For the past several months, the consumer price index, the primary indicator of inflation in the United States, has been steadily trending upward—and there appears to be no end in sight.

As inflation continues on its current trajectory throughout this year, Social Security’s cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2022 is expected to receive a major boost as well. COLA is calculated each year based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W.

Higher Estimate

Just how much? According to the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, the data now points toward a possible 6.2 percent cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients for 2022. This new figure is up from the 6.1 percent estimate that the group projected last month—and it would be the largest increase in nearly forty years.

“The estimate is significant because the COLA is based on the average of the July, August, and September CPI data,” Mary Johnson, a Social Security policy analyst for the Senior Citizens League, said in a statement.

“With one-third of the data needed to calculate the COLA already in, it increasingly appears that the COLA for 2022 will be the highest-paid since 1983 when it was 7.4 percent,” she continued.

For comparison, in 2021, the Social Security COLA was only 1.3 percent. That amounted to a roughly $20 extra monthly payment for the average retiree.

SSA Too Stingy?

The 6.2 percent bump may be music to the ears of many Social Security recipients, but according to the financial site Motley Fool, the program has been stingy on its adjustments for far too many years.

“Seniors on Social Security are entitled to an annual raise known as a cost-of-living adjustment or COLA. The purpose of COLAs is to help seniors maintain their buying power when living expenses inevitably rise,” the expert wrote.

“But over the past twelve years, Social Security COLAs have averaged just under 1.4 percent. That’s hardly been enough to keep pace with inflation,” she added.

With this in mind, the expert noted that younger people should save more during their working years so that they are “less reliant on Social Security.” According to recent data released by the Social Security Administration (SSA), approximately 20 percent of married couples and 40 percent of singles receive at least 90 percent of their income from Social Security benefits.

“Unfortunately, Social Security isn’t perfect, and it’s seniors who have been paying the price for a long time. It’s important that current workers recognize the program’s limitations and take steps to save aggressively for retirement on their own. Consistently funding an IRA or 401(k) plan could make it so that seniors are less reliant on Social Security—and more financially stable once their time in the workforce comes to an end,” she advises.

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters.

Charlie Gao

Military Technology,

The Israeli service often extensively modifies American military equipment to fit the IDF’s unique mission.

Here's What You Need To Remember: Israel's operating conditions of harsh desert and urban conditions require modifications to American equipment to allow the American equipment to thrive in the environment encountered by the IDF. Here are four great examples of how American military equipment has been adjusted to fit the needs of IDFs unique mission.  

The Israel Defense Forces field a wide variety of American military equipment, due to significant amounts of American military aid to Israel. However, American equipment has not always been the best suited to the tough desert and urban conditions encountered by the IDF. As a result, American equipment in Israeli service is often extensively modified to fit the IDF’s unique mission. Here are some unique derivatives of American equipment that the IDF fields.

1. MAPATS Antitank Missile

The IDF has had a long relationship with the antitank guided missile. In the long desert approaches that surround Israel, antitank missiles can direct the flow of combat and are very effective weapons. While the first ATGMs fielded by Israel were the French SS.10 and SS.11, it was replaced in the late 1970s by the American TOW (Orev in IDF service) missile. However, due to its wire-guided nature, the TOW has range limitations and cannot be used in all circumstances. Bodies of water, trees, and power lines can disrupt the TOW’s guidance or endanger the TOW’s operator. As a result, the Israelis developed a version of the TOW that used laser guidance to avoid these issues. A new engine and improved warhead also gave it superior penetration and speed to the original TOW. The MAPATS has seen export success, although it is being replaced by other, newer Israeli ATGMs of wholly indigenous design.

2. Israeli M16 and CAR-15 Variants

While nominally most of the IDF has switched over to the Tavor, variants of the M16 continue to serve in the IDF. However, in the late 1980s and 1990s, these rifles were the frontline rifles of the IDF, replacing the heavier FN FAL and the Israeli Galil (although Galil carbines remained in service in the Armored Corps, due to their shorter lengths with stocks folded). In the aughts, Israel set about modernizing these rifles. Due to the largely urban nature of combat the IDF Infantry engaged in, the long twenty-inch and 14.5-inch barrels of the M16s and Colt 653s were deemed too long. The barrels were sawn off to around 12.5-inch length, and the resulting carbines were called “mekut’zrar.” Furniture on these varied, but always had an eye towards the practical. Fabric bands could be wrapped around the plastic handguards to make them more rigid and stop them from creaking, red dots were added straight onto the carry handles, and stocks were often replaced with modern six-position M4 stocks. The results were relatively modern, lightweight carbines on the cheap. Mekut’zrar carbines are still seen in service today, although they’ve been supplanted by new stocks of M4s and the Tavor series.

3. Machbet Self-Propelled Antiaircraft Gun

While the M163 VADS was always considered to be kind of a “stopgap” solution for the short-range antiair defense solution for the U.S. military, the VADS saw significant Israeli service in the 1982 Lebanon War. In addition to scoring a kill on a Syrian MiG-21, they provided valuable ground support, suppressing infantry in urban and mountainous areas with their rapid-fire twenty-millimeter cannons. While they were phased out of American service in the 1990s and replaced with the better-armored but slower-firing M6 Bradley Linebacker, Israel opted to upgrade its VADS to the new “Machbet” standard instead, fitting an optoelectronic tracking system, better radar, a quad-Stinger pod, and an ADA network datalink to the VADS to make it effective against a wider variety of targets and faster reacting.

4. The F15 Baz Meshopar

Israel was one of the first customers for the American F-15 fighter. It has served admirably as the backbone of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) throughout the late 1970s to the present day. In addition to its superb performance in the air-to-air role during the 1982 Lebanon War, the F-15 was also used in Operation Opera and Operation Wooden Leg, both long-range-strike missions. These were done with the addition of some indigenous guidance and sensor pods. While Israel later acquired variants of the ground-attack F-15E Strike Eagle under the name F15I Ra’am, they also updated their first- and second-gen F-15s to a new standard with indigenous electronics and parts, under the name F-15 Baz Meshopar, or Baz 2000. The upgrade included a new radar with AIM-120 and Israeli Python missile compatibility, redone cockpits with a new throttle and stick and glass cockpit, and improved electronic-warfare capability. This upgrade program ran from 1995 to 2001, and these upgraded F-15s are expected to continue to serve far into the future.

Charlie Gao studied political and computer science at Grinnell College and is a frequent commentator on defense and national-security issues. This article first appeared last year.

Image: Reuters.

Peter Suciu

military, Americas

The vessel was added to the National Register of Historic Places in September 2008.

In 1996, actor Kelsey Grammer starred in the largely forgettable military comedy Down Periscope, in which a disgraced U.S. Navy officer is given command of an obsolete diesel submarine that was recommissioned to participate in a special naval war game. The movie's screenplay should have been “deep sixed” before the film was actually made, but one takeaway from it is that the U.S. Navy by the 1990s was a fully nuclear-powered fighting force. 

Yet, it had been only a few years earlier that the Navy retired and decommissioned the USS Blueback (SS-581). Laid down by Ingalls Shipbuilding Corporation of Pascagoula, Mississippi in April 1957 and launched in May 1959, she was the last non-nuclear submarine to enter service in the U.S. Navy. Serving until October 1990, she was also the final conventionally powered combat-capable submarine to be decommissioned. 

The U.S. Navy had only become a fully nuclear submarine fleet some six years before Down Periscope was made, and moreover, the fleet still maintained the research submarine USS Dolphin, which wasn't retired until 2007. Perhaps some screenwriters should have done their homework! 

The Barbel-Class 

In addition to being the last combat-capable diesel-electric attack submarine commissioned into the U.S. Navy, the USS Blueback was also notable for being just one of three Barbel-class boats to be constructed, and the only of the three to be maintained as a museum ship. 

The class was notable in that it actually incorporated numerous, even radical engineering improvements over the previous diesel-electric subs, including the first to be built with the “teardrop-shaped” hull that had been tested on the USS Albacore (AGSS-569), as well as the first to feature a single propeller. The hull design was critical in that it increased underwater speed dramatically while it also enabled the submarine to be far more maneuverable.  

Additionally, the Barbel-class utilized a combined control room, attack center and conning tower in the same space in the hull.  

Notable USS Blueback Accomplishments 

During her thirty-one years in service with the U.S. Navy, USS Blueback participated in Pacific Fleet operations, which included a transiting of the Panama Canal. In September 1961, she also set a record by traveling 5,340 miles from Yokosuka, Japan to San Diego entirely submerged.  

The submarine also earned two battle stars for her service in the Vietnam War.

Shortly before her decommissioning in 1990, USS Blueback was provided by the U.S. Navy for use in the film The Hunt for Red October, based on the Tom Clancy novel of the same name. Standing in for a Soviet submarine, a film crew was reported to have been allowed to film in the torpedo room, while some of her crew were said to have been paid to wear Soviet Navy uniforms. The submarine had previously appeared in the 1970s TV series Hawaii Five-O.  

After her decommissioning, the USS Blueback was struck from the Naval Vessel Register. In February 1994, the boat was acquired by the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI), which towed her back to Portland. She serves as a maritime memorial and is an interactive part of the museum. Visitors can walk through the 219-foot submarine to get a glimpse of how the crew of eighty-five sailors and officers lived on the boat. There are two tours for guests—a basic forty-five-minute guided tour and a two-hour long tour that is guided by a submarine veteran, who provides insight on the technical workings of the submarine.

The vessel was added to the National Register of Historic Places in September 2008.

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer who has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers and websites. He regularly writes about military small arms, and is the author of several books on military headgear including A Gallery of Military Headdress, which is available on Amazon.com. 

Image: Wikimedia Commons

Ethen Kim Lieser

Social Security,

According to the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, that boost could come in the form of a 6.2 percent cost-of-living adjustment, which would be the highest registered in nearly forty years.

The data over the past several months have signaled that the consumer price index (CPI)—the primary indicator of inflation in the United States—has been steadily pointing north.

And as inflation continues on its current trajectory, millions of senior citizens across the country have voiced frustration that their dollars just won’t stretch far these days. In the worst cases, some seniors are even being forced to choose between medicine and food.

However, there could be much-needed help in a few months, as Social Security’s cost of living adjustment (COLA) for next year is expected to receive a major boost. According to the Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, that boost could come in the form of a 6.2 percent cost-of-living adjustment, which would be the highest registered in nearly forty years. Last year, the Social Security COLA was only 1.3 percent.

“The estimate is significant because the COLA is based on the average of the July, August, and September CPI data,” Mary Johnson, a policy analyst for the Senior Citizens League, said in a statement. “With one-third of the data needed to calculate the COLA already in, it increasingly appears that the COLA for 2022 will be the highest-paid since 1983 when it was 7.4 percent.”

Short-Term Solution?

The sizeable bump in Social Security payouts may solve the financial problems of some seniors, but there are experts who believe that the Social Security Administration (SSA) needs to be even more aggressive with its adjustments going forward.

“We’re not seeing any improvement in the share of people who have incomes above the Elder Index (a measure of the cost of living for older U.S. adults),” Jan E. Mutchler, professor of gerontology and director of the Center for Social and Demographic Research on Aging at the University of Massachusetts Boston, said in an interview with CNBC. “We’re seeing sustained high levels of people who do not appear to have the resources they really need to get by in retirement.”

Diversify Income

According to the SSA, approximately twenty percent of married couples and forty percent of singles receive at least ninety percent of their income from the Social Security program.

“Over the past twelve years, Social Security COLAs have averaged just under 1.4 percent,” a Motley Fool expert wrote. “That’s hardly been enough to keep pace with inflation.”

Against this backdrop, the expert suggested that younger workers need to start preparing for their retirements now.

“Unfortunately, Social Security isn’t perfect, and it’s seniors who have been paying the price for a long time,” she said. “It’s important that current workers recognize the program’s limitations and take steps to save aggressively for retirement on their own.”

Ethen Kim Lieser is a Washington state-based Science and Tech Editor who has held posts at Google, The Korea Herald, Lincoln Journal Star, AsianWeek, and Arirang TV. Follow or contact him on LinkedIn. This article is being republished due to reader interest.

Image: Reuters