Diplomacy & Crisis News

Au milieu de la « décennie noire » des années 1990, plusieurs massacres de population ont endeuillé l'Algérie, déjà dévastée par les affrontements entre forces de l'ordre et groupes islamistes armés. Les lois d'amnistie et la volonté des autorités d'étouffer le souvenir de ces épisodes sanglants empêchent (...) / Algérie, Armée, Guérilla, Islam, Religion, Spiritualité, Terrorisme, Violence, Fondamentalisme, Maghreb, Répression, Guerre civile - 2017/08

Washington doit exercer des pressions sur Israël pour obtenir l'évacuation des villes palestiniennes, sinon c'est la crédibilité des Etats-Unis dans le monde arabe qui serait menacée : tels sont, en substance, les propos que le prince héritier saoudien Abdallah a tenus au président George W. Bush (...) / Arabie saoudite, Golfe, Éducation, Femmes, Islam, Religion - 2002/05

Le respect par l'Iran de l'accord sur la non-prolifération nucléaire entraîne progressivement la levée des sanctions internationales. L'ouverture des échanges et ses répercussions politiques influeront sur les élections législatives prévues fin février. Attentives aux changements, les femmes occupent une (...) / Iran, Éducation, Femmes, Islam, Mutation, Politique, Religion, Société - 2016/02

/ Amérique latine, Chili, Urbanisme, Ville - Amérique du Sud / Amérique latine, Chili, Urbanisme, Ville - Amérique du Sud

/ Chili, Inégalités, Pauvreté, Économie, Capitalisme, Amérique latine - Amérique du Sud / Chili, Inégalités, Pauvreté, Économie, Capitalisme, Amérique latine - Amérique du Sud

/ Cuivre, Matières premières, Monde - Amérique du Sud / Cuivre, Matières premières, Monde - Amérique du Sud

The prevalence of violent extremism in the United States poses an increasing threat on national security. Historically, policymakers have focused counterterrorism efforts on external Islamic terror threats. A shift in focus is necessary to address the alarming rise of far-right ideology within the United States following the presidency of Donald Trump. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, racially motivated extremism and anti-government extremism pose two of the biggest domestic threats to U.S. national security. In 2020, white supremacists conducted 67% of all terror plots in the United States.[1] Anti-authority extremists carried out an additional 20%. Popular culture often views Islamic terrorists as the main threat, but Salafi-jihadist groups carried out a meager 7% of attacks in 2020.[2]

White supremacy and anti-government dialogue made its way into mainstream platforms alongside the populist rise of Donald Trump. His 2016 campaign, and subsequent presidency, capitalized on undercurrents of racial resentment. Trump’s focus on “political incorrectness” allowed fringe ideologies to rise to the surface.[3] However, this far-right extremism is not a new phenomenon. Racial hatred has remained a pervasive and damaging issue in America for hundreds of years. With each new decade, this hatred takes on a different shape. Today, far-right extremists fear tactics focused on xenophobia and racism to recruit new members from vulnerable populations.

            In June of 2021, President Biden released the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Extremism. The 32-page report defines domestic extremism as “activities that involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of criminal laws in the US” and are intended to “intimidate or coerce a civilian population [or] influence … a government.”[4] It identifies racially-motivated extremism and anti-authority extremism as the two main domestic terror threats. The report details the extent of the problem, identifies a strategy organized around four main pillars, and then expands on those pillars through a series of strategic goals.

            The National Strategy for Countering Domestic Extremism takes a broad yet multi-faceted approach to counter-extremism policy. It calls for improved research, increased resources dedicated to preventing recruitment, and a more legislative dimension to addressing domestic terrorism. It’s strengths lie with its multi-level approach to information sharing within government institutions, its focus on the vulnerability of veterans to recruitment, and its recognition of the need to address the shifting landscape of domestic threats. However, it faces four major challenges. First, the entire strategy lacks specificity. Throughout an evaluation of the strategy, a lack of specificity plagues nearly every pillar. The first pillar fails to account for the contextual differences between communities. The second pillar needs to better explain how prevention measures will be balanced with respect for civil liberties. The third pillar focuses on legislative reforms that would require a more precise definition of domestic terrorism, which the U.S. government currently lacks. This lack of specificity will not only make the strategy difficult to implement, but it will also make it less consumable for the general public.

The second major challenge for the strategy is that it does not focus heavily enough on addressing the drivers for far-right extremism. Biden’s administration has a firm grasp on the ideology behind the movement, but it fails to tackle the conditions that leave people vulnerable to these ideologies. It addresses the proliferation of social media, which is a major contributor, but lacks programs to tackle systemic issues like poverty, low access to quality education, and xenophobia.

            The third major challenge facing this strategy is its failure to address the gendered dynamics of violent extremism. The approach to countering these ideologies requires a holistic understanding of how far-right extremism impacts men and women differently. Far-right groups appeal to women in unique ways, and understanding all recruitment narratives is crucial for employing CVE policy. Women play a key role in the recruitment of new members, the spread of propaganda, and the organization of far-right groups. They made up 14% of arrests from the capital riots of January 6, 2021.[5] The National Strategy for Countering Domestic Extremism makes no mention of the gendered dynamics of far-right extremism. Biden’s strategy needs an additional pillar solely focused on addressing the recruitment of women.

            The fourth major challenge is the strategy’s failure to address the youth dynamics of violent extremism. Approximately 32% of the U.S. population is below the age of 25. This age group is a sprawling base from which far-right groups attempt to recruit. Young people’s “real or perceived disengagement and marginalization” make them highly vulnerable to recruitment narratives. With expanding access to social media platforms, marginalized youths on the internet are easy targets for far-right. Biden’s plan addresses the prominent role of social media in recruitment, but it needs a tighter focus on the vulnerability of young people.

[1] Jones, Seth. 2020. “The War Comes Home: The Evolution of Domestic Terrorism in the United States.” Center for Strategic and International Studies. October 22, 2020. https://www.csis.org/analysis/war-comes-home-evolution-domestic-terrorism-united-states.

[2] Jones, Seth. 2020. “The War Comes Home.” Center for Strategic and International Studies.

[3]“Watch How Trump’s War on ‘Political Correctness’ Turned into Hate Speech.” Vanity Fair. August 9, 2016. https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/donald-trump-political-incorrectness.

[4] “The National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism.” WhiteHouse.Gov. June2021: pg. 8. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/National-Strategy-for-Countering-Domestic-Terrorism.pdf.

[5] Rubin, Olivia, and Will Steakin. 2021. “‘We Did Our Part’: The Overlooked Role Women Played in the Capitol Riot.” ABC News. April 8, 2021. https://abcnews.go.com/US/part-overlooked-role-women-played-capitol-riot/story?id=76924779.

/ Chili, Climat, Ville, Environnement, Urbanisme - Amérique du Sud / Chili, Climat, Ville, Environnement, Urbanisme - Amérique du Sud

The Ukrainian Army has made dramatic strides in the last few weeks. Ukraine’s tactical commanders have outfoxed their Russian counterparts, and by issuing a feint towards the south the UA has been able to earn substantial gains in the north of their country. The impact of these efforts have been compounded by the steady stream of weapons and equipment from the United States and NATO partners- More specific accounting of the tactical maneuvering is being done by The Institute for the Study of War.

These successes, though important, do not suggest that the war is on the verge of coming to an end. Russian forces still occupy some 34,750 square miles of sovereign Ukrainian territory. More than that, despite prior public statements that Russia was conducting its “special military operation” in order to liberate the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics, Russian collaborators in those regions have promoted referendums are expected to be held between September 23rd and 27th that aimed at integrating those regions with Russia. These machinations have coincided with a (domestically very unpopular) plan to mobilize some additional 300,000 reservists and conscripts. 

These referendums, if passed, would provide Russia with the manufactured casus belli that Ukraine and NATO forces are carrying out attacks within Russian territory, and might therefore allow for a more obvious mobilization effort. Former Russian President Damitri Medvedev is quoted as saying that the referendums were important for their contributions to the, “systematic defense” of Russian territory, and continued that, “an encroachment on Russian territory is a crime.”

Of course, Mr Medvedev is correct- encroachment on Russian territory is a crime. So too is the invasion and occupation of Ukrainian territory. Similarly, for all of the reasons that the Ukrainian government should have worked more closely with French and German mediators to follow through on the terms of the Minsk Protocols, the Russian government cannot, without international condemnation, ignore its ethical and legal responsibility to prevent the spread of dishonest information based upon the results of a obviously illegitimate vote. 

While the United States cannot prevent Russian state-media’s attempts at double-speak, American leadership can do much to clarify its own messaging.

In the face of an increasingly multi-polar world (despite Russia’s displayed incompetence and what it might imply about China’s true capacity) the United States and its allies have a delicate line to balance. Little can be done to quell the endless rumors about what was or was not agreed to between Secretary of State James Baker and Mikhail Gorbachev about the future of NATO expansion in 1990- this is no excuse for a lack of clarity about NATO’s potential expansion and mission moving forward.

Similarly, there should be no denying that honest calls for nationhood should be facilitated through a legitimate democratic process. There should also be no denying that the long recognized corruption that marred the Ukrainian government was not somehow cleaned out with the onset of Russia’s attempted invasion. Pretending otherwise makes the United States and its allies appear dishonest and weakens our bargaining positions on other key international issues.

Even more than these things, however, there should be no credible doubt that the humanitarian catastrophe brought on by the Kremlin’s aggression is not in any way justified by Ukraine’s governance issues or slowness in adhering to the Minsk Protocols. International bodies and co-signatories provide a far more effective and ethical way of resolving disputes, and the integrity of those bodies and treaties is dependent on the good-faith and trust of their participants. As such, it is important that the United States and its allies participate in good faith- even in the face of an obviously bad actor like Vladmir Putin.

While it is important that we take the time to recognize, and celebrate, the success of Ukraine’s Army and partisan forces in resisting Russian aggression, it would be long sighted to limit American and NATO armed support to those which can be used for substantively defensive purposes. Towards this end, NATO members should continue to provide the Javelin anti-tank systems and Byractar drones that have proven so effective in slowing the advance of Russian armored columns. Mobile artillery units with a range that surpass their Russian equivalents like the M142 HIMARS have played a dramatic role in disrupting Russian cross-river movements, but ensuring that these NATO provided weapons are not used to strike targets within legitimate Russian territory could prove pivotal in preventing further escalation of the conflict. Similarly, it should not be taken for granted that Ukraine be extended NATO membership in the aftermath of the conflict- such an action would give credence to the idea that the United States resisted Russia’s obvious attempts at empire largely for the sake of extending its own more subtle empire.

In addition to these direct efforts, the United States and its partners should look for non-military means of strengthening their hand against bad actors into the future. These efforts might range from promoting election integrity domestically to diversifying energy sourcing. They most certainly include pushing for increased public awareness about key foreign policy issues and the continued re-staffing of the diplomatic corps as a way of peacefully promoting the cause of Democracy and Liberalism beyond our borders.

While the conflict in Ukraine will likely rage on for months to come, there is some real chance that historians will consider the push that took place in mid-September to represent the turning point of the conflict. In the event that this is true, the United States, Ukraine, and all other concerned parties should do just as much to facilitate a successful peace as they will certainly do to bring about an end to the war.

—

Peter Scaturro is the Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association. The opinions expressed here are his, and not necessarily those of the Association.

Alors que le Mozambique, secoué par des scandales, fragilisé par la chute du prix des matières premières, traverse l'une des plus graves crises de son histoire, la mort mystérieuse du président Samora Machel, survenue en 1986, hante le débat public. Avec le temps, les langues se délient ; la vérité (...) / Afrique, Afrique australe, Afrique du Sud, France, Russie, URSS, Zimbabwe, Armée, Personnalités, Mozambique, Aéronautique, Mouvement de libération - 2017/08

Fière de son image de tolérance, l'Indonésie doit affronter un double péril : la corruption et la montée de l'intégrisme. Longtemps ignoré, l'islam rigoriste, importé principalement d'Arabie saoudite, fait des ravages. Si le dirigeant de la plus puissante milice fondamentaliste, menacé d'arrestation, a (...) / Asie, Asie du Sud-Est, Indonésie, Femmes, Inégalités, Islam, Jeunes, Mutation, Parti politique, Politique, Religion, Spiritualité, Fondamentalisme - 2017/08

À en croire M. Donald Trump, la frontière américano-mexicaine serait une passoire que seule la construction d'un « grand et beau mur », long de 3 200 kilomètres, pourrait obstruer. Les États-Unis n'ont pourtant pas attendu leur nouveau président pour traquer les migrants clandestins. En Arizona, le (...) / États-Unis, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), États-Unis (affaires intérieures), Mexique, Narcotrafic, Immigrés, Migrations, Pauvreté, Police, Technologie, Travail, Ville, Amérique du Nord, Frontières - 2017/08

Il y a quelque deux mille cinq cents ans, sous ce même ciel qui aujourd'hui voit son pays vendu à la découpe, un poète grec truculent et irrévérencieux attendait anxieusement de découvrir l'accueil réservé à ses « Oiseaux » : Aristophane, né dans un siècle à la fois brillant et belliqueux. / Grèce, Art, (...) / Grèce, Art, Conflit, Culture, Histoire, Idées, Pacifisme, Théâtre - 2017/08

L'histoire universelle a toujours eu plus d'une ruse dans son sac. Aussi a-t-elle confié l'expansion du principe Amérique à ce qui était supposé lui faire vis-à-vis et, pour certains, concurrence : les États-Unis d'Europe. Tel est le miracle de l'hégémonie : pouvoir faire remplir son agenda par un (...) / États-Unis, Europe, Capitalisme, Culture, État, Histoire, Idées, Identité culturelle, Idéologie, Langue, Mondialisation - 2017/08

Qui n'a jamais rêvé, quand la chaleur devient étouffante, de brancher le climatiseur pour profiter d'une brise de fraîcheur ? Alimentée par les canicules à répétition, cette tentation n'a rien d'anodin : l'air conditionné change les modes de vie des pays où il s'implante. / États-Unis, Écologie, (...) / États-Unis, Écologie, Histoire, Industrie, Société, Urbanisme, Ville, Commerce, Climat, Environnement - 2017/08

The recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine was taken by many Central and Eastern European countries as a sign of drastic change in a part of the world that had not experienced such a transformation in a generation. The annexation of Crimea was not met with much of a response beyond limited sanctions in 2014, and the war in the East of Ukraine received little long term attention outside of the region, even after an airliner was shot down by a BUK missile system. Recent rapid advances on Kyiv put countries like Poland on intense alert, and assured that their actions in seeking modern Western weapons systems was a reasonable and essential policy direction for the country. Poland is planning to reform its military, and is likely going to become one of the most advanced militaries in Central Europe.

Policies that have come out of the recent conflict in Ukraine ensured large amounts weapons being sent in support of Ukraine as well as historic levels of assistance given to Ukraine and countries bordering the former Soviet Union. In order to give the Ukrainian forces the ability to respond rapidly to Russian advances, weapons systems similar to those that are used by Ukraine’s Armed Forces were sought over more modern Western weapons systems that would have required additional training, time and support. Older Soviet systems like the T-72 and MiG-29 were dedicated or given to Ukraine with an agreement with the US or Germany to displace the older systems with more modern German and American tanks and weapons systems. Central European powers that were using modernised equipment from the Cold War era are now able to obtain many NATO weapons systems if they sent their Cold War era equipment to Ukraine. Those systems are increasingly being seen in videos of the conflict and are already having an effect with Polish made tanks being seen on the field, advancing in the Kherson region and region around Kharkiv.

The weapons displacement program has met some hurdles, but the intent and policy approach has two major benefits. Besides supporting Ukraine with already active equipment, the displacement of the equipment with advanced systems like Leopard 2 tanks from Germany and M1A2 tanks from the US gives countries bordering Russia and Belarus a distinct advantage. Modernising Central European countries with NATO weapons also brings that region closer to the West, and pulls them further from the influence of Russia and their government. Outside of the direct policy approach, the actions and support of Ukraine’s Armed Forces will blunt the ability of Russia to pose a serious threat using conventional arms to former Warsaw Pact nations that have spent much of their post-Cold War freedom pulling away from Russian influence.

While support and weapons from the West and NATO have had a major impact on Russian equipment and morale, it is important not to take recent victories with a grain of salt by pushing polices too widely or aggressively. Like with wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, policies that tie NATO long term to a conflict or a specific region may end up causing more strife and end in a long term loss for the West. If done more rapidly, putting Russia in a corner may illicit and overreaction by Russia if they feel they have fewer options in ensuring their own national security. What already seems to be occurring is that support for one conflict may add fuel to the fire towards other conflicts in other parts of the world, creating long term problems outside of Eastern Europe. A holistic and well thought out policy direction is essential, the absence of one is already a catalyst for the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Après les Finlandais qui, à une large majorité, viennent de dire « oui » à l'Union européenne, et avant les Norvégiens, les Suédois auront à se prononcer, le 13 novembre, sur l'adhésion de leur pays. Profondément divisés sur la question, les sociaux-démocrates, revenus aux affaires au sein d'un gouvernement (...) / Europe, Démocratie, État, Société, Suède - 1994/11

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine threatens the existing system of international relations and creates the preconditions for regional conflicts in Europe. In Ukraine, Putin has tested and created a new tool for blurring borders and separating the territories of neighboring countries by creating so-called “gray zones” or “gray enclaves”, the classic examples of which are the “DNR” and “LNR”(“Donetsk and Luhansk People Republics”).

In 2014, the Russian Federation used the tactics of “biting off small pieces” from Ukraine, de facto occupying a significant part of the Ukrainian Donbas. Russia has applied similar schemes in other countries. For example, immediately after the collapse of the USSR, armed conflicts began in Moldova and Georgia: in 1992 in Transnistria and Abkhazia, and this was largely due to the indirect influence of Russia, which in every possible way supported the separatist movements in the post-Soviet space, spreading its influence through them.

But in Ukraine, Russia is testing and scaling up a technology that is extremely dangerous for Europe to form “gray zones” of instability, which, like cancerous metastases, tend to expand and appear in other countries, even those not adjacent to Russia. This tactic is part of the toolkit of the so-called hybrid aggression – a complex, predominantly non-military confrontation with an asymmetrically stronger or numerically stronger enemy, a direct military clash with which is undesirable.

Putin sees the West as such an adversary, which he considers a civilizational enemy. At the moment, for the first time since 1991, Russia poses a direct threat to Europe by creating “gray zones” in Ukraine, where the issue of the continued existence of Western civilization is being decided.

By invading Ukraine on February 24, Putin opened a geopolitical Pandora’s Box, setting off a chain of irreversible processes within the system of international relations. An attempt to occupy a sovereign state is a denial of the principles of the inviolability of borders that were formed after the Second World War, which means the leveling of the Yalta and Potsdam agreements, which made it possible to effectively eliminate the prerequisites for the emergence of interstate conflicts in post-war Europe. Putin has disrupted the stability of the existing system of international relations and created global geopolitical turbulence.

The analysis of the mechanism of hybrid aggression, tested by Putin in Ukraine, makes it possible to understand what an unprecedented threat Europe is facing. At the initial level, this hybrid strategy is based on separatist sentiments, which are especially strong in the Balkans, if we talk about the European continent. To reinforce such tendencies, the Kremlin uses its agents of influence and funding so that the proxies sponsored by it not only declare themselves as potentially independent players but also weaken and destabilize the country as much as possible, posing a threat to its integrity and sovereignty.

The tactics of such aggression are quite flexible: if in the case of the Ukrainian Donbas, Russia tried to consolidate its political, economic, and military presence as much as possible, then, for example, in the case of Serbia, which is currently destabilizing the Balkans, unquestioning implementation of the Kremlin’s political instructions is sufficient.

Russian influence can be indirect: it is not necessary to use military force, as happened in 2014 in the Donbas. In the case of Europe, it is enough to have agents of influence who will undermine the socio-political situation within a country or region. The Kremlin’s goal is to destabilize and deplete the object of the hybrid attack, demoralize the population, and create unbearable conditions for life with parallel rampant crime, corruption, etc. As a rule, Russia does not need such “gray zones” as territorial acquisitions. They serve as an instrument of influence. It is precisely the game of separatism that can turn into the presence of Russia anywhere on the continent, and at the moment, seeing that the military arsenal of the Russian Federation is incomparable with NATO, Putin begins to actively apply the tactics of creating “gray zones” in Europe, starting with Ukraine.

Hybrid aggression is carried out mainly by non-military methods, but it cannot exist without a strong army. Therefore, Ukraine is a bulwark of defense of the eastern borders of Europe. And the outcome of this confrontation depends on the full support of Kyiv, the Ukrainian army, which defends not only its country but the whole of Europe from Russian aggression. Ukraine needs Western weapons capable of exhausting and weakening the Russian army that threatens Europe.

Mykola Volkivskyi is an international public figure, fellow of the Lane Kirkland Scholarship, Founder of the Foundation for the Development of Ukraine in Poland, and the IGR in Kyiv.

Le nouveau film de Jean-Luc Godard, « Eloge de l'amour », sort le mercredi 16 mai. C'est une cantate dont les personnages chantent la Résistance, la mémoire et le cinéma. Une nouvelle occasion de découvrir l'originalité et la pertinence de ce réalisateur unique pour qui le cinéma est, en premier lieu, (...) / Art, Cinéma, Culture - 2001/05

« Ton image, c'est toi ou c'est quelqu'un d'autre ? »... Dans l'ombre, comme à l'affût, il y a une voix. En face, remplissant le cadre, un enfant s'étonne, s'interroge, se tait ou essaye de répondre. Un enfant réagit à cette voix. La voix est toujours là, une voix lente, entêtante, têtue, insistante. (...) / France, Audiovisuel, Cinéma, Communication, Enfance, Idées, Personnalités - 1979/05