Diplomacy & Crisis News

This is Germany’s first trial involving Islamic State war crimes.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently patched up ties with Russia and Israel. Are a couple of nationalist politicians laying the groundwork for a deal with Syria’s strongman?

West Africa's Ebola epidemic is over, but shocking new science suggests that tens of thousands of survivors could still be carriers.

Austria's supreme court ruled that a company boss's refusal to let a woman wear the full face veil at work was constitutional.

A group of senior House Democrats, including longtime Iran hawks, are refusing to support a last-minute Republican push to pass multiple Iran sanctions bills before the summer recess and dismissing the effort as naked partisan point-scoring.

‘The Triumph of democracy’ as Brexit supporters inside and outside of the UK have explained the historic results of whether the UK should remain or leave the EU. referendum. The Leave campaign has successfully mobilized anger of large parts of British society on immigration, the influence of bankers of the City, and the overreach of Brussels bureaucracy. On the other hand the case for Remain was weak in the run up to the referendum, the advantages of the EU were barely present in the debates, all the while fear mongering was dominating on both sides.

Although the pro-Brexit campaign not give any clear picture of how a UK outside the EU would look like, their point that there is life outside of the EU - bringing up Switzerland and Norway as examples – did have some truth in it. They enjoy the benefits of the single market while opting out of the political integration. Those who opposed the Brexit are quick to rebuff this line by saying that these non-member countries basically have to accommodate to EU rules – including on free movement – without having a say in the relevant decisions.

But the problem goes much deeper than that. Switzerland and Norway can have the luxury of opting out because of their size and geography. Although they are rich and well functioning democracies, their overall influence on Europe is limited. It sounds evident , but it’s worth giving it prominence: they can enjoy the benefits of the single European market because there is a single European market, with all its foundational pillars. European peace and welfare isn’t just based on trade, let alone economic cooperation, but shared institutions, procedures and norms created by painful work and compromise. And yes, on the military power and deep political engagement of the United States in Europe. If trade were only to it, then Europe would not have ran into the first World War. Without a certain level of sharing sovereignty with the leadership of Germany and France the peace and prosperity Europe enjoyed in the past sixty years would not have been possible.

However, shared institutions, norms and interdependence by themselves do not bring legitimacy to the European project in the eyes of today’s European citizens. Delivering results in the welfare and security is what might achieve that. And nothing more would bring that closer than results against the negative effects of globalization: uncontrolled immigration, growing inequality within countries, growing masses felt left behind. It’s true that European integration would – in theory - be a useful tool to more effectively tackle these challenges. The challenges of globalization by their nature cannot be tackled successfully alone by nation states.

The problem is that a lot of the major decisions taken by the EU in recent years – that is the Commission and some major European nation states - have exaggerated the challenges, not decreased them. Take the handling of the economic crisis with the disastrous effects of endless austerity imposed on Southern Europe or the migration crisis in which Brussels has simply stepped behind Berlin’s open door – obligatory quota policy. And all these in such an environment where the European publics were already skeptical of the federalist tendencies even before these recent major crisis erupted, as the French and Dutch referendums on the EU Constitution a decade ago have demonstrated.
So with the EU going south on the substance, but – or at least some form of - integration structure still much needed, what next?

First of all, focus should be on the substance. Fostering growth, accelerating innovation, tackling inequality, stopping mass illegal immigration and fighting terrorism with additional resources and proper regulation – but without more integration. The nation states of the EU have to come to terms with each other on these issues foremost. Otherwise any attempt by Brussels or a powerful member to impose its will through the back door on others concerning these critical substantial questions will only hasten the demise of the whole European Union.

Secondly, discussions about the crucial challenges of Europe and the options available should be much more honest and more transparent – the issues on migration and the TTIP are good places to start with. This doesn’t mean that Brussels doesn’t have valid considerations as it is dealing with these issues, but it has to be much more responsive to the concerns of the majority of EU citizens. Any double talk, circumlocution, arrogance and disregard of the fears of many Europeans will only hasten the demise of the whole European Union.

Thirdly, acknowledge that European integration is not a bicycle, which would either go further or fall down. It is rather a huge but slow moving truck on many wheels which at times can even stop to rest to take stock and alter its direction if necessary. It’s a unique and valuable instrument which helps bring us Europeans closer together, and it has become an essential feature of our greater European family, but it cannot replace our homes, the nation states of Europe.

Language Undefined Tag: NATOBREXITEUVarga Gergely

The Vermont senator used a drawn-out primary to attack Clinton’s judgement on national security and international trade, so party unity may prove elusive.

Central Africa Project Director Richard Moncrieff gave his testimony on the humanitarian situation in Burundi to the UK Parliament’s International Development Committee on 12 July 2016.

Refusant le « coup d'Etat parlementaire » du gouvernement de M. Abe Shinzo, des Japonais manifestent devant la Diète tous les jours depuis plus d'un an. / Japon, Armée, Droit, Mouvement de contestation, Pacifisme - 2015/09 / Japon, Armée, Droit, Mouvement de contestation, Pacifisme - 2015/09

/ États-Unis, Japon, Armée, Relations bilatérales - Asie / États-Unis, Japon, Armée, Relations bilatérales - Asie

Les institutions européennes accordent une place exorbitante à la bureaucratie au détriment du pouvoir politique. Intervenant à tous les stades du processus de décision, ces fonctionnaires concentrent l'attention des lobbys. / Belgique, Europe, Banque, Élections, Entreprise, Finance, Fonction (...) / Belgique, Europe, Banque, Élections, Entreprise, Finance, Fonction publique, Industrie, Médias, Politique, Travail, Groupe de pression, Commerce - 2015/09

Cette recension est issue de Politique étrangère (2/2016). Rémy Hémez propose une analyse de l’ouvrage dirigé par Tatiana Carayannis et Louisa Lombard, Making Sense of the Central African Republic (Londres, Zed Books, 2015, 384 pages).

Peu d’ouvrages traitent de la République Centrafricaine (RCA), particulièrement en anglais. Making Sense of the Central African Republic est important car il rassemble quelques-uns des meilleurs spécialistes de la crise centrafricaine et propose une approche véritablement pluridisciplinaire. Il permet en cela de mieux comprendre ce pays d’environ quatre millions d’habitants vivant aux marges de la communauté internationale.

On ne peut revenir ici sur les douze contributions qui composent le livre. Elles apportent toutes un éclairage essentiel sur la situation actuelle du pays. Cela commence d’ailleurs par une excellente introduction à l’histoire de la RCA, rédigée par Stephen W. Smith, qui nous fait prendre conscience du tourbillon négatif dans lequel est engagé le pays depuis la colonisation. Les contributions suivantes alternent entre des problématiques assez générales comme la question de la richesse et de la pauvreté par Roland Marchal, ou les « pathologies » du maintien de la paix en RCA par Enrico Picco, et d’autres plus spécifiques, tels l’analyse des dynamiques locales du PK5 par Faouzi Kilembe ou un chapitre sur l’Armée de résistance du seigneur en Centrafrique par Ledio Cakaj.

Malgré cet apparent foisonnement, il est possible, à la lecture de cet ouvrage, de dégager quatre lignes de forces pouvant servir de guide pour appréhender la complexité de la RCA. Premièrement, il convient de prendre en compte l’histoire violente du pays depuis sa colonisation, car elle laisse des marques profondes, notamment en ce qui concerne sa structure sociale. Deuxièmement, il faut bien se rendre compte des faiblesses récurrentes de la structure étatique centrafricaine. L’État n’a jamais fourni les services de base et n’a pas étendu son autorité à l’ensemble du pays. L’utilisation de biens publics à des fins privées y est devenue chose commune. Ainsi l’État centrafricain est, pour la plupart de ses citoyens « une douloureuse absence et une présence blessante ». Troisièmement, l’insérer dans son environnement régional est crucial pour une analyse sérieuse. Le nord de la Centrafrique est par exemple beaucoup plus intégré avec les pays frontaliers qu’avec le reste de la RCA, et les crises régionales ont de fortes répercussions sur le pays. Enfin, les très nombreuses interventions extérieures visant à rétablir la paix ont toutes échoué car elles ont cherché à remplir à « faible coût » des objectifs de court terme. Les dynamiques profondes de la crise n’ont donc pas été traitées.

Cet ouvrage, indispensable à tous ceux qui s’intéressent à la RCA mais aussi à la question générale du peace building, démontre bien que l’explosion de violence dans ce pays depuis 2012 est le fruit de la convergence de dynamiques de long terme complexes. Le livre remplit l’objectif affiché par les auteurs : analyser pour la première fois en un seul volume l’économie politique, le rôle des conflits et l’influence des acteurs régionaux en RCA. Enfin, on ne peut qu’être d’accord avec le constat fait par les auteurs de la nécessité de traiter les racines profondes de la crise en redéfinissant les rôles de la société et de l’État centrafricains. Reste à espérer que l’engagement actuel de l’ONU en RCA – le plus important que le pays ait jamais connu – puisse répondre à ces exigences.

Rémy Hémez

S’abonner à Politique étrangère.

(Own report) - NATO wound up its summit in Warsaw, Saturday, with a decision to bolster its arms buildup. The measures decided by the Western war alliance are particularly aimed at Russia. Four battalion-sized NATO-"Battle Groups" will be deployed in Poland and the Baltic countries - one under German command. NATO will also support Ukraine's armed forces and reinforce its presence on the Black Sea. The war alliance pursues its propaganda of Cold-War style alleged threat scenarios. With allusion to the "Fulda Gap," NATO identifies today a "Suwalki Gap" between northeastern Poland and southern Lithuania as an alleged gateway for Russian troops to Kaliningrad through Belarus, against which, NATO would be "helpless." Statistics show that the "helpless" NATO invests thirteen times more than Russia in its military. While the EU is enhancing its cooperation with the western war alliance, the US is heating up the next major conflict - with China - through its deployment of a missile defense system in Asia.

El gobierno insiste en que no habrá negociación mientras prosigan los secuestros y la guerrilla insiste en que esa condición desconoce la agenda. ¿Cuál es entonces el futuro del proceso de paz con “la otra guerrilla”?

Tiraillée entre sa volonté de moderniser son appareil militaro-industriel et la réalité de son économie en panne, la Russie cherche à retrouver son rang stratégique. Malgré des retards technologiques, elle demeure la deuxième exportatrice mondiale d'armes. / Chine, Russie, Ukraine, Armée, Nucléaire (...) / Chine, Russie, Ukraine, Armée, Nucléaire militaire, Commerce international, Défense, Économie, Espace, État, Géopolitique, Industrie, Industrie de l'armement, Mer, Mutation, Politique, Relations internationales, Technologie, Relations Est-Ouest, Diplomatie, Stratégie militaire - 2016/04

A ruling from The Hague next week on maritime disputes in the South China Sea is likely to exacerbate frictions between China and the U.S. Both would be better off respecting the central role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Expecting an unfavorable decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration on the Philippines’ challenge to its extensive maritime claims, China has intensified its long-held policy of divide-and-rule to prevent ASEAN from closing ranks behind the legal process.

Tuesday’s attack on Istanbul Ataturk airport will only exacerbate Turkey’s tourism and economic woes.

On Tuesday, June 28th Islamic State-linked militants assaulted Istanbul Ataturk international airport. The attack was a coordinated operation conducted by at least three foreign militants armed with assault rifles and explosive vests. The death toll has so far reached 44 dead and 239 others were wounded.

The attack came as a stern reminder of the elevated terrorist threat faced by Turkey. It also underscores the fact that the country is currently located at the cross-roads of ISIS international and regional terrorist strategies. The attacks at Istanbul airport will deal an additional blow against the Turkish economy. They will also raise further questions concerning the security of in-country and international large civilian infrastructure.

A further blow to the Turkish tourism sector

The wave of terrorist attacks that has been marring Turkey’s security environment since July 2015 has had a major impact on the national economy. The most direct hit has so far been felt by the national tourism sector.

Since the beginning of 2016, hotel occupancy rates have steadily been dropping every month in comparison to the same periods in the previous year. In March, the occupancy rates of hotels in Istanbul were down by approximately 30%. Two months later, these overall rates in Turkey reached 57%, marking a more than 40% drop.

These indicators are directly linked to a steady decline of foreign travellers reaching Turkey for touristic reasons. The two main groups of foreign tourists, Germans and Russians, experienced a 30% and 90% decrease respectively since the beginning of 2016. While the number of Russians coming to Turkey may increase following the lifting of Moscow’s travel ban, the volume of Russian tourists will likely remain substantially lower than usual during summer 2016.

It is probable that the bombing at Istanbul international airport will further increase foreigners’ concerns over the overall security environment in the country. The attack will have its biggest impact on planned travels to Istanbul and will also lead to an overall decrease of the demand for holidays in the western and south-western coastal regions of Izmir and Antalya. Indeed, post-attack security operations targeted suspected networks in Izmir raising concerns over the potential presence of ISIS networks in the area.

A deterioration of Istanbul’s security environment

The bombing in Istanbul underscored the overall deterioration of the local security environment. Since the beginning of 2016, the city has experienced four major terrorist attacks conducted by two of the principal terrorist groups operating in Turkey. Istanbul is exposed to operations carried out by both Islamist militants as well as Kurdish separatists.

It is noteworthy that ISIS militants have been carrying out operations in Istanbul, as well as Ankara, as part of the groups’ international strategy aimed at hitting high-level targets such as airports and key civilian places. Istanbul had previously experienced suicide bombings in touristic and commercial districts in which the perpetrators specifically targeted foreign nationals.

The selected targets are clearly chosen to hurt Turkey’s international standing in a bid to generate economic woes by hampering the national tourist sector and increasingly portraying the country as an unsafe place.

Airport security: A growing global concern

The latest attack raised questions over the Turkish security forces ability to prevent further terrorist operations. It also led to additional interrogations regarding the overall response to secure global airports.

While it has been positive that June’s attack in Ataturk airport did not lead to major air travel and operation disruptions like March’s attacks in Belgium, ISIS’ assault in Istanbul shows that airports continue to be a relatively soft target.

Security measures such as preliminary checkpoints, luggage and vehicle checks as well as identity controls may diminish the risk of attacks within the terminals but increase the volume of travellers exposed to potential violence on the outskirts of the airport perimeter.

As such, security managers of global airports and governments are increasingly looking for innovative ways to respond to the terrorist threat to airports. Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion international airport is attracting international interest over its unique system of airport security based on technical and human controls.

In the near-future, Istanbul and other international airports are expected to review their security measures to try to step up capabilities to mitigate the risk of additional attacks.

Turkey’s long campaign against terrorism

For Turkey, the elevated terrorism risk is unlikely to abate in the coming months. Kurdish separatist groups, Islamist radicals and far-left militants will continue trying to carry out attacks against security forces and institutions, as well as touristic and commercial areas.

This will result in an ongoing campaign against terror mainly directed against PKK-linked militants and ISIS-associated networks. Anti-terrorist operations will continue to occur in major cities, as well as along the southern border with Syria and in Kurdish-majority south-eastern provinces. Such raids increase the risk of localized violence and generate an overall risk of retaliatory violence.

This article was originally published by Global Risk Insights and written by GRI analyst Riccardo Dugulin.

The post The Wider Implications of ISIS’ Istanbul Bombing appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has joined a growing number of world leaders taking their message to one of today’s fast-growing social media platforms: Snapchat (@israelipm). Indeed, Netanyahu is already on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Instagram.

His first snap is a series of jokes—professionally edited to look unedited—spliced with the message that “Snapchat is a powerful medium and I look forward to using it to tell the truth about Israel.”

Some of Netanyahu’s jokes in his first snap:

• He starts by announcing that today he is joining “Stopchat.” When corrected, he deadpans: “Snoopchat?”
• “Since Snapchat disappears, I’ve decided to conduct all secret conversations and communications with Snapchat.”
• “You can only talk for 10 seconds. I wish we had that in the government.”
• He concludes with “now I can finally tell you all of Israel’s most closely held secrets, like…” He is abruptly interrupted by static and the SMPTE color bars.”

Netanyahu understands the power of unfiltered words, spoken directly to the camera. He was a masterful representative for Israel when he served as their Ambassador to the UN. He understands America, speaks English as a native, and is a powerful orator with a deep voice and a smile in his eyes.

Even before becoming Prime Minister, he has one of Israel’s most strident spokespeople, whether sitting down for a one-on-one interview with the American press or addressing the world through the UN.

His understanding of video seems to have evolved of late. He has recently released several videos (that have subsequently gone viral) which feature him sitting at a desk and speaking directly to the camera. He shared a touching response to the heinous Orlando attack; the Financial Times called his video a “masterclass in responding to tragedy.” It has been viewed over 22 million times and shared over 667,000 times online.

After Hallal Ariel was brutally murdered in her sleep, Netanyahu again chose to respond at his desk, speaking directly to the camera. His video response became a significant part of the conversation.

Netanyahu has long understood the media. It is now becoming clear he is also quite adept at social media. His interest in Snapchat serves as an easy extension of his online brand and it will be interesting to see how he approaches this new medium of communication.

I know that I for one will be following along. Join me in the conversation on Twitter at @jlemonsk.

The post Netanyahu has joined Snapchat appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

La fin des combats en Irak marque une étape dans la redéfinition de l'architecture internationale. En débat, la place des Nations unies et du droit international (lire « Justice internationale, politique et droit »), les rôles respectifs de l'Europe (lire « L'Union européenne malade de l'atlantisme (...) / États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Irak, Armée, Conflit, Géopolitique, Violence, Guerre d'Irak 2002 - - 2003/05 Animalité