Defence`s Feeds

Africa has been on something of a spending spree in the past few years, upping their stake in the global defence market while addressing urgent security challenges at home. For most states, reinforcing the reputation of a secure and civilised environment is the first step in encouraging

Ahead of the Military Airlift conference (29 Sept-1 Oct, London, UK), Defence IQ has produced a guide to the what’s going on in the market. This interactive map reveals the key procurement programmes in place globally and details some of the current and future plans for tactical

This news digest offers a round up of all the latest military airlift news, including: Fourth C-130 touches down in Kabul, expands Afghan Air Force capabilities France budgets for C-130 transport plane as A400M delays continue Pentagon acquisit

Another Oxford Analytica brief, this one originally published in late February 2015.

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SIGNIFICANCE: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are leading other Central Asian governments in increased spending on military and security forces and the procurement of modern equipment. Regional governments have long-standing fears of potential Russian military interference and remain concerned about the situation in Afghanistan. The increase in military expenditures is expanding capabilities, although the degree and pace of improvement varies from country to country, and regional militaries still lag Russian and NATO forces.

ANALYSIS: Impacts

• Russian forces presence in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will increase.
• Turkmenistan will place greater emphasis on modern weapons procurement and naval assets.
• Mobile and counter-terrorism focused forces will be seen as more important than conventional land forces.
• While Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will drive military reform, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will increasingly rely on Russia.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan’s military is Central Asia’s most capable, but it is far less capable than NATO or Russian militaries. Special forces will play a larger role as Kazakhstan looks to make a greater contribution to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s counter-terrorism capability.

A Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report estimates Kazakhstan’s armed forces at 30,000-45,000 troops — plus many thousands of other personnel attached to the Interior Ministry. In 2014, Astana said that it would be increasing defence spending by 36% over three years from around 2 billion dollars per annum to 2.7 billion dollars by 2017, according to a report by IHS Janes. However, this increase may have to be reduced slightly to fall in line with expected budget cuts due to low oil prices.

Astana is looking to trim all 2015-17 budgets to match a 50 dollars per barrel oil price, but President Nursultan Nazarbayev could authorise the government to support increased defence expenditure with oil reserves from the National Fund. The World Bank noted that in 2013 Kazakhstan spent the equivalent of 1.2% of GDP on defence.

Air force

The air force, which has a primarily air defence role, has between 11,000 and 13,000 personnel, according to SIPRI and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Combat pilots average 100 hours of flight time per year, which is lower than the NATO standard. On February 4, Major General Nurlan Ormanbetov, Commander in Chief of the Kazakhstan Air Defence Forces (KADF), said that Astana plans to acquire the Russian Sukhoi Su-30SM ‘Flanker’ from Russia. As noted by IHS Janes, the KADF currently uses the MiG-27 ‘Flogger’, Su-25 ‘Frogfoot’, MiG-31 ‘Foxhound’, Su-27 ‘Flanker’, and MiG-29 ‘Fulcrum’ aircraft. The SU-30SM has been developed by Russia as a stopgap unitl the MiG-35 and Sukoi T-50 PAK-FA fifth generation fighters become fully operational.

Navy procurement

The navy has been significantly expanded and modernised since 2010. It now has 3,000 personnel and has deployed new patrol boats and missile boats. By the end of 2015, it will have gained mine countermeasure (MCM) capabilities with the delivery of a Project 1750E inshore MCM vessel from Russia. The navy’s missions focus on territorial defence and protection of offshore oil platforms and tankers. Kazakhstan’s increased naval procurement follows a general trend of greater military activity on the Caspian. On February 16, as reported by IHS Janes, Kazakhstan and France are to work jointly on the development of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs). Astana will buy 10 UUVs to use in the Caspian.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan’s military is reckoned to be Central Asia’s second most capable with an army currently numbering 40,000 personnel. Total defence spending is approximately 2 billion dollars per annum, according to SIPRI. The military is focused on improving its capabilities to defeat asymmetric challenges to President Islam Karimov’s administration. However, in Uzbekistan, the National Security Service (SNB) has historically been seen as significantly more important than the military. This trend will likely continue. The SNB will be a key powerbroker in any Karimov succession crisis. This highlights Tashkent’s main security priority, which is to maintain internal stability as opposed to undertake foreign operations.

Air force disrepair

Uzbekistan’s air force is reasonably well-equipped, but ill-maintained. Pilots receive around only 10 hours of flight time per year. Uzbekistan’s primary air assets are SU-24, SU-27, SU-25 and MIG-29 fighters, with transport capabilities provided by Illyshin-76 and AN-26s.

Joint Russian training

Uzbekistan’s defence priorities include procuring modern military equipment, improving combat readiness and mobility, and increasing professionalism among the officer corps. In December 2014, defence and military cooperation were discussed during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan. Some 3,000 Uzbekistani military officers will reportedly study at military schools in Russia this year, which will increase Russia-Uzbekistan military interoperability.

Leaner fighting force

Uzbekistan aims to cut the overall size of its military in order to free up resources to create and train more mobile units. Heavy armour formations — using T-72, T-64 and T-62 battle tanks — and high-calibre artillery units are being reduced in favour of lighter infantry units with counter-insurgency/counter-terrorism and mountain warfare capabilities.

In January, the United States announced delivery to Uzbekistan of 328 Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) military vehicles to be used for counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics operations, according to Radio Free Europe/Free Liberty (RFE/RL). Washington stressed that this was non-lethal aid.

Turkmenistan

Ashgabat’s military numbers an estimated 22,000-30,000, according to SIPRI. Despite being willing to spend money on modern weapons, Turkmenistan’s armed forces are considered weak with low operational effectiveness. Ashgabat has been unwilling to allocate spending to training and equipment maintenance. Meanwhile, the modern weapons it has acquired largely remain unused due to a lack of qualified personnel. The 2012 defence budget is estimated to be 210 million dollars, according to SIPRI. The army currently uses a lot of old Soviet era hardware such as T-72 tanks, BTRs and BMP infantry fighting vehicles.

Air Force struggles

Despite having received a large number of aircraft at the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkmenistan has struggled to maintain these, and pilot training has suffered. Currently it has MiG-29 and SU-25 fighters along with a handful of Mi-24s and Mi-8 helicopters. The air force lacks a heavy lift capability and would struggle to support the army on out-of-area operations or on Caspian patrols, which it is officially tasked to do.

Navy new ships

The navy was reformed as an independent force in only the past two years. Previously it was a department in the general staff. The navy’s missions include defending the Caspian coastline and protecting energy assets. Ashgabat has focused on improving naval capabilities through building new bases, procuring new ships and setting up a naval officer training academy.

As reported by Eurasianet in 2011, Turkmenistan bought two 12418 Molniya-class missile corvettes armed with the Uran-E missile system. These vessels are among some of the most powerful ships on the Caspian, although Ashgabat still trails Moscow and Tehran in naval capability. In 2013, Turkmenistan reportedly procured eight naval vessels which will be made at the Turkish shipyard Dearsan.

Military reform

President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has made military reform a central aspect of his policy platform. In 2010, the government adopted a five-year military modernisation plan. However, reports indicate that the programme focuses on rearmament objectives, rather than structural reforms. In November, Berdymukhamedov reportedly told his national security council that Turkmenistan must procure the most advanced modern military equipment.

With the country having a long, porous border with Afghanistan, Ashgabat will increasingly look to procure unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for surveillance. However, despite buying modern arms, absent reforms and greater training of personnel, Turkmenistan’s military will remain an impressive military on paper but will lack the capabilities to defend the state.

Kyrgyzstan

In 2013, according to World Bank data, Kyrgyzstan allocated the equivalent of 3.2% of GDP to defence spending. This represents a gradual decline over the last four years from 2010 (3.8%) and 2011 (3.4%). The Kyrgyzstani armed forces are weak overall with gaps in command and control. Total spending on military and security services is estimated by SIPRI at 234 million dollars per annum.

Morale is assessed to be low. Declining funding means that Kyrgyzstan is increasingly dependent on external assistance for equipment and training. Bishkek’s main goal is to improve readiness and mobility in order to let the military respond to both border and internal events.

Army

The army’s total strength is 8,500 personnel, according to SIPRI. The army is looking to become a more agile force focused on mountain warfare. Mirroring a common theme across the region, the army is equipped with T-72 tanks, BMPs and BTR armoured vehicles.

Air force

Poor pilot and personnel training hinder Kyrgyzstan’s air force which is considered to be one of Central Asia’s weakest. Given limited resources, the country’s leadership has chosen not to upgrade the air force’s capabilities. Instead, Bishkek relies on assistance from Russian air forces based at Kant, where Moscow has rights until 2032 ( see CIS: Unstable Central Asia will drive Russian ties – January 23, 2015). In February, Russia announced intentions to reinforce the combat capabilities at Kant.

Tajikistan

With its 1,300 kilometre border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan’s military would be pressed to halt any incursions from militant groups. To boost security, Tajikistan is planning a new military base on the Afghan border.

Total spending on military and security services is estimated at 164 million dollars per annum, according to SIPRI. Dushanbe’s military forces developed out of irregulars that operated during the 1992-97 civil war. In recent years, the military has sought to increase mobility by establishing airborne and mountain infantry units. Tajikistan is dependent on Moscow for its security. Russia has 7,000 troops in Tajikistan that are set to remain in the country until 2042 ( see CIS: Unstable Central Asia will drive Russian ties – January 23, 2015).

Tajikistan’s army has only 7,000 personnel, and uses a variety of Soviet era equipment. Air forces are divided among various ministries, and have only a handful of Mi-24 and Mi-8 helicopters. With GDP of 8.5 billion dollars (World Bank 2013), Tajikistan’s military and security forces are likely to remain constrained for the foreseeable future. Dushanbe lacks the spending power to boost the military significantly.

CONCLUSION: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan appear to be building reasonably capable military forces. In Uzbekistan, the security service (SNB) will likely remain pre-eminent and enjoy the best access to the president. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are struggling to maintain even small rapid reaction forces; Bishkek and Dushanbe would likely need Russian military support in the event of a security crisis. Turkmenistan has the wealth to formulate a major military force, but Ashgabat has been unwilling to spend on training and maintenance.

The European Defence Agency has just launched a €1 million, 18-month feasibility study to prepare a future cooperative governmental satellite communications (Govsatcom) programme.

The study will be delivered by a consortium led by Euroconsult with Airbus Defence & Space, CGI, Istituto Affari Internazionali, Hisdesat and SpaceTec Partners working as subcontractors. This work is expected to be complemented by other studies funded by the European Space Agency (ESA). Some synergies are also expected with the work currently performed by the European Commission.

“This study will help us to find new ways to cooperate in a complex institutional setting”, EDA Chief Executive Jorge Domecq stated upon signing the study contract. “Considering that Govsatcom capabilities are inherently dual-use, one of the main objectives will be to identify an efficient, innovative and sustainable cooperation model in particular by implementing synergies with the Commission. This will certainly be reflected by a genuine governance of the system”, he added. 

“Government satellite communications are evolving, due to changes in operational requirements and to the availability of innovative and cost effective solutions serving these,” stated Euroconsult CEO Pacome Revillon. ”The international consortium combines expertise across the full satellite communications value chain, while the project governance will guarantee the independence and neutrality of the results. All partners are fully committed to delivering a study that lays the groundwork for future European capability,” he added. 

Govsatcom was identified in December 2013 by EU Heads of State and Government as one of four priorities for capability development, along with air-to-air refuelling, remotely piloted aircraft systems and cyber defence. 

Under the lead of Spain, a common staff target harmonising the needs of military users was adopted by all EDA Member States in 2014. Based on this commonly-agreed document, a preparation phase started ahead of the launch of a full-scale cooperative project. By the end of 2016, a business case including more detailed technical requirements as well as a through-life management plan should allow Member States to assess various options in terms of cooperation models and system architectures. These findings will be to a large extent supported by the outcome of the feasibility study.

 

More information:

• EDA Govsatcom capability programme 
• "Filling the gap in space capabilities", article in European Defence Matters, issue 8, p. 30

EDA Chief Executive Jorge Domecq travelled to Portugal yesterday to attend a Distinguished Visitors Day held during this year’s edition of the European Air Transport Training (EATT), a multinational training event gathering 15 military transport aircraft from 11 different European nations: Belgium, Germany, Finland, France, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

Initiated by EDA, run by the European Air Transport Command and hosted by Portugal, EATT 15 takes place in Beja from 14 to 26 June. The EATT series of events aims to pool resources and share knowledge in order to develop comprehensive airlift training opportunities in Europe. Activities are based on national requirements and are designed to make the best use of multinational training opportunities.

“Exercises organised under the framework of the European Air Transport Fleet (EATF) keep proving their value over the years, with an increasing number of Member States and aircraft types taking part – for instance, we have six of the eight European military air transport aircraft types participating in EATT 15”, Jorge Domecq stressed during the DV Day. “Since 2011, more than 70 crews have benefitted from the training delivered during EATF live-flying events, effectively increasing interoperability between European armed forces”, he added.

“I also wish to underline the good cooperation between EDA, the European Air Transport Command as well as host nations – Portugal in this case – who all work very hard to enhance airlift capabilities in Europe and to make these events possible”, EDA Chief Executive Jorge Domecq stated.

The EATT series of training events form part of a wider ecosystem of EATF events that all converge towards the same objective of increasing the European Union’s airlift capabilities. In 2015, two editions of the European Advanced Airlift Tactics Training Course, or EAATTC, have already taken place in Bulgaria and France, with a third one planned for September in Spain. In the meantime, four European Advanced Tactical Instructor Courses (EATIC) will be organised in Italy this year.

More information

• EATT 15 dedicated website (Portuguese Air Force)
• EATT 15 Factsheet
• European Air Transport Fleet project page
• Exercises & training project page
• European Air Transport Command website

Investment in battlefield situational awareness capabilities is a priority for military commanders with ever more advanced and accurate surveillance technologies bei

At a NATO Ministerial meeting in Brussels, the Defence Secretary announced the UK will step up its programme of training the Ukrainian armed forces. The move will build on an existing programme of medical, infantry, logistics and tactical intelligence training which

Investment in battlefield situational awareness capabilities is a priority for military commanders with ever more advanced and accurate surveillance technologies bei

At a NATO Ministerial meeting in Brussels, the Defence Secretary announced the UK will step up its programme of training the Ukrainian armed forces. The move will build on an existing programme of medical, infantry, logistics and tactical intelligence training which

Chinese A200 Multiple Launch Rocket System

Written by Suzana Elena Anghel Gavrilescu and Ralf Drachenberg

The June European Council has a comprehensive list of topics to discuss, including the situation in the Mediterranean, the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), fighting terrorism, economic governance aspects, and the digital agenda. In addition, a presentation by the British Prime Minister on the future role of the United Kingdom is on the agenda.

Migration is the main topic of this June European Council. Heads of State or Government will discuss the recently published European Agenda for Migration and take stock of the progress made since the extraordinary European Council meeting on migration in April 2015. The European Council will discuss the European Commission’s proposal for a temporary relocation mechanism, which envisages relocating 40 000 persons from Italy and Greece to other Member States.

The European Council should also agree on a new CSDP roadmap and set the objectives for capabilities development, fostering the defence industry and the defence market, and strengthening relations with international organisations (i.e. the UN, NATO, the African Union). The Heads of State or Government will decide on a timeline for the completion of the strategic review process, most probably by June 2016. Within the broader context of discussing security aspects, the European Council will also examine the implementation of the informal February 2015 European Council‘s decisions on the fight against terrorism. 

During discussions on the 2015 European Semester the European Council endorse the Country Specific Recommendations that Member States should implement to ensure sound public finances and to make their economies more competitive. Whilst on the topic of better economic governance in the euro area, the ‘Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union’ report is expected to be presented to the Heads of State or Government.

The European Commission’s recent Digital Single Market strategy for Europe will be tabled for examination, and the European Council will most likely call for a rapid adoption of pending legislation in this field, such as the European Single Market for Electronic Communications, the Directive on Network and Information Security and the proposal for a Regulation on Data Protection.

This European Council meeting will also hear United Kingdom Prime Minister, David Cameron outline his vision for renegotiating his country’s relationship with the EU.

Read the complete ‘Outlook for the European Council of 25 – 26 June 2015‘ in PDF.
Filed under: BLOG, Policy Cycle Tagged: briefings, counter-terrorism strategy, CSDP, digital agenda, economic governance, EPRS briefings, European Council, Pre-European Council Briefing, Ralf Drachenberg, Suzana Elena Anghel Gavrilescu

Source : © European Union, 2015 - EP

Earlier this month, at the Bakony Combat Training Centre in Hungary, the European Defence Agency attended exercise Capable Logistician 15. The event was coordinated by the Multinational Logistic Coordination Centre (MLCC) and supported by Hungary as host nation. Capable Logistician 15 provided the EDA with an opportunity to test its Sharing of Spare Parts (SoSP) mechanism and to prove the effectiveness of its operational procedures.

Sharing of Spare Parts (SoSP) is an initiative aimed at establishing a multinational framework for the request and provision of Mutual Logistic Support (MLS) in peacetime and during the execution of operations. MLS focuses on unforeseen and temporary shortages of common supplies as well as on in-service support for standard or specific equipment.

In this respect, Capable Logistician 15 offered a realistic scenario in which to simulate the lack of an appropriate level of logistic support - which in turn may have affected the operational effectiveness of a unit in the field. The unavailability of spare parts (in this simulated event, a transmission gear for land vehicles) has often caused serious problems in operations, especially where there is a particularly long logistic chain, where there are security considerations, or where similar collaborative solutions are not feasible or convenient.

The simulated application of the SoSP scheme allowed the exchange of spare parts between two units in the field which were using the same land vehicles.

More information

• Exercise Capable Logistician 2015
• Sharing of Spare Parts project page

 

More than 30 helicopters and 1000 military personnel have gathered 80 kilometers north of Rome for Italian Blade 2015, this year’s largest military rotary-wing exercise in Europe. Crews from seven different countries have started training together yesterday using joint procedures and tactics during missions of increasing complexity.

After three successful live-flying events hosted by Portugal from 2012 to 2014, the EDA-developed Helicopter Exercise Programme (HEP) has moved to Italy this year. More than 1000 military personnel and 30 helicopters coming from seven nations are taking part in Italian Blade 2015. The exercise is delivered by the Italian Army Aviation in Viterbo, about 80 km north of Rome. 

During two weeks, helicopter crews as well as ground forces will take part in joint missions during which efforts will be made to maximise interoperability between all assets involved. They will fly and operate in conditions likely to be faced in future operations, while promoting cooperation in helicopter training through the integration of multinational elements in the air and on the ground.

Mentor team

A mentor team of six instructors from Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom will support multinational crews in the preparation and execution of complex missions. The team will be managed by an EDA Chief Instructor, serving officer of the UK Royal Air Force, who will ensure consistency of the output as well as proper exchange of lessons learned during other EDA-organised training events, namely the Helicopter Tactics Course (HTC) and the Helicopter Tactics Instructor Course (HTIC), which also contribute to increasing the overall availability of European military helicopters.
 

More information

• Pictures of the exercise are available on our Flickr gallery
• Helicopter initiatives project page
• EDA exercises & training
• Italian Blade 2015 factsheet

With the exception of Poland, all EDA participating Member States as well as Norway have decided to subscribe to and therefore participate in the implementation of the Code of Conduct on REACH Defence Exemptions which was adopted in March 2015.

This new milestone highlights the importance of harmonising national defence exemption procedures. Poland is still conducting an internal analysis towards a final decision regarding its subscription to the Code of Conduct.

A harmonised approach towards national REACH defence exemptions will contribute to a level playing field for European defence industries, reducing their administrative burden and related costs. It will also support the creation of an open and transparent European Defence Equipment Market and a capable and capability-driven European Defence Technological and Industrial Base, providing armed forces with the right defence equipment to meet their operational requirements.

In coming years the EDA will act as a facilitator to support national implementation and application of the CoC in practice, by the Member States.

 

More information

• EDA's project page on REACH
• EDA Code of Conduct (CoC) on REACH Defence Exemptions
• Annex to CoC - Framework for Applying for a Defence Exemption from a Requirement of REACH

North Korean KN-08 Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile

From 16 to 18 June 2015, the European Defence Agency (EDA) together with the Czech National Security Authority (NBU) organised an exercise for Comprehensive and Strategic Decision Making on Cyber Security and Defence in Prague. The exercise was opened with keynote speeches from the Director of the NBU, Mr Dušan Navrátil and the Estonian Ambassador to the Czech Republic, H.E. Mr. Sten Schwede. The Estonian Ambassador to NATO, H.E. Mr. Lauri Lepik, visited the exercise on 17 June.

The exercise execution was supported by the Estonian based European Cyber Security Initiative (ECSI), a Non-Governmental Organisation aiming at improving cyber security across Europe, as well as representatives from the Estonian and Portuguese governments, the EU Military Staff and CERT-EU.

The tabletop exercise aimed at training senior decision makers from the public and private sectors to comprehensively deal with complex cyber attack scenarios. The methodological concept of the exercise, that refers back to an Estonian initiative, was initially piloted with the Portuguese government in May 2014. The exercise in Prague served as a first proof-of-concept. In total 57 representatives from the Czech government, the Czech private sector and observers from Austria, Estonia, Slovakia, ENISA and CCD COE participated. 

Participants expressed their appreciation of the exercise in general. In particular they valued the realistic scenario and concept as well as the pragmatism in transferring a complex issue into a coherent training concept. They also agreed that the exercise addressed an existing gap in the training and exercise landscape. 

A second proof-of-concept exercise will be organised with the Austrian government in September 2015 in Vienna

 

More Information:

• Website Czech National Security Agency
• Cyber defence capability programme overview
  
  

I’ve fallen behind on reprinting my Oxford Analytica briefs. Here’s one from late January, on US-Russian competition in arms sales. This version is slightly different from the originally published version, in that I have restored some material cut due to space constraints.

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SIGNIFICANCE: India is the world’s largest arms importer and its primary suppliers are Russia and the United States. Although the two suppliers largely sell their weapons to different customers globally, Russian efforts to expand to new markets to compensate for declining sales to traditional partners will lead to increased competition with the United States in many parts of the world.

ANALYSIS: Impacts

• The most likely new markets for Russian arms sales include South America, South-east Asia, Egypt and Pakistan.
• Russian competition with the United States in arms sales will be limited to a small number of countries.
• Defence firms offering technology transfers will have an edge in the Indian market.
• For decades, Russia and the United States have been the largest arms exporters in the world. From 2009 to 2013, Russia accounted for 27% of total world arms sales, while the United States was just ahead with 29%.
• Russian arms sales have been highly dependent on a few major customers, with India, China and Algeria accounting for over 60% of Russian purchases in the last five years.
• US arms sales are far more diversified, with the top three customers (Australia, South Korea and the United Arab Emirates) accounting for under 30% of total sales.

Shifting markets for Russia

The main targets of Russian weapon sales have been shifting:

China

Sales to China have declined as Beijing pursues a programme of domestic manufacturing of advanced weaponry. Many Chinese designs appear to be based on reverse-engineered Russian imports, particularly in fighter aircraft.

Europe and the Middle East

Russia has already lost other markets in Europe where many former Warsaw Pact countries are shifting to NATO equipment. Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa have halted major sales to Libya and Syria.

India

Russian military industry is also worried about potential declines in purchases by India, its leading customer. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported that between 2009 and 2013 Russia supplied 75% of weapons imported by India. However, serious delays and cost overruns on major contracts, such as aircraft carrier Vikramaditya to India and Il-76 transport aircraft to China, have dented Russia’s reputation as a reliable partner for India.

As a result, Delhi has sought to diversify its arms purchases. India chose French Rafale fighters in its multi-billion dollar Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) fighter tender and purchased helicopters and transport aircraft, as well as ASW aircraft, from the United States. India chose the American C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft over Russia’s Il-76 plane. Moreover, India is looking to be 75% self-reliant in defence production by 2020-25, which is likely to result in declines in foreign arms purchases from both Russia and the United States.

New markets

Russia is actively seeking to expand its arms sales in South-east Asia, particularly Indonesia and Vietnam. Both are looking towards naval expansion and have in recent years bought aircraft, combat ships and infantry fighting vehicles from Russia. It is also seeking to sell diesel submarines to Thailand and has signed a deal to supply transport helicopters to Pakistan.

Besides Asia, Russia has been actively looking for new customers for its arms in the Middle East. Russia has recently concluded significant contracts with Iraq for helicopters and air defence systems worth 4 billion dollars and Egypt for air defence systems worth 2 billion dollars. Negotiations are also under way for coastal defence systems, attack helicopters and MiG-35 fighter aircraft. Ten years after being forced out of the Iraq market by the US invasion, Russia has once again become a major supplier of air defence systems and helicopters to that country.

It has also signed an agreement expanding military cooperation with Iran, with officials discussing the possibility of restoring the agreement to sell S-300 air defence systems with a possible upgrade to the more advanced S-400 system. Such sales would not violate the existing international sanctions regime.

In Latin America, Russia has long had a reliable customer in Venezuela, which has in recent years bought missiles, tanks and armored vehicles from Russia. Russia is looking for new markets in the region and is hopeful of selling fighter aircraft to Brazil and Argentina. Russia has sold air defence systems to Brazil and hopes to develop a defence industrial partnership that might parallel its military cooperation with India.

Russian competition with the United States

Russia mostly seeks to sell arms to countries that are not able or interested in buying US weapons, either because the customer states are not partners of the United States or because the products are too expensive. Iran, Venezuela and China are not likely to become areas for competition in US-Russian arms sales. Egypt has turned to Russia in recent years because of a deterioration in relations with the United States in the aftermath of the 2013 military coup. Many African and South-east Asian countries choose Russian arms when they cannot afford US-made versions.

India, a large unaligned country with a high level of military expenditures, is an attractive target for defense companies from both countries. Russia is also hoping to make inroads into Brazil and Argentina, two countries that have traditionally bought the majority of their weapons from the United States and its NATO allies.

The sectors in which Russian weapons systems are considered equal or superior to Western equivalents include: air defence, fighter aircraft, helicopters, submarines and cruise missiles. These are the sectors in which Russia’s defence industry can compete with the most advanced Western suppliers, with weapons such as the S-300 air defence system, the Su-35 fighter jets and the Kilo class submarine being noteworthy. In other sectors, such as transport aircraft, drones, surface ships, tanks and armoured vehicles, the quality of Russian products is significantly inferior to that of the United States, and Russian exporters compete primarily on price.

US strategy.

International arms sales can offset reductions in US defence spending, helping to keep the US defence industrial base healthy. Arms sales also fit with the Obama administration’s goal of strengthening allies and partners so they can provide more security for themselves without relying on US support. The US government has revised its export control system and is trying to streamline the Arms Export Control Act to make arms transfers simpler.

The combination of high-level policymaker attention, steady reforms and a volatile international security environment has resulted in an increase in US arms sales, thereby accelerating the competition with Russia.

In fiscal year 2014, US arms sales worldwide totaled 34 billion dollars, up 4 billion dollars from the previous year and about three times greater than the pre-2006 average. By contrast, President Vladimir Putin yesterday announced that in 2014 Russia sold more than 15 billion dollars-worth of arms and that new signed orders stood at around 14 billion dollars.

Outlook.

The United States continues to dominate the defence trade with its traditional partners such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Japan. Yet it remains committed to maintaining or expanding ties to countries that Russia is also courting, such as Brazil, Argentina, India, Indonesia, Egypt and Pakistan.

In 2014, the United States and India agreed to identify co-development and co-production opportunities as part of the US-India Defence Trade and Technology Initiative (DTTI). Industry sources report that surveillance UAVs may be the first batch of products sold.

Since these products would be of particular use to India, especially in patrolling disputed areas with Pakistan, the United States may expect to see greater competition with Israel, a major drone manufacturer, shifting the Indian market towards higher-end products, and perhaps leaving fewer areas in which the main competition is with Russia.

CONCLUSION: The Russian and US defence sectors will push for greater exports to offset constraints in the defence budgets of their own governments. India, with growing expenditures and skepticism about Russia’s reliability, appears to be opening further to the United States. Competition between the two manufacturers will also be seen in Latin America and South-east Asia, where the US ‘Asia pivot’ may help Washington win new customers.

Defence IQ recently attended a conference in London hosted by Oceans Beyond Piracy (OBP), a project undertaken by the One Earth Future Foundation in an effort to mobilise action against global maritime piracy with the input of stakeholders, government and militaries, public an