Defence`s Feeds

US Air Force (USAF) Lockheed Martin F-16C Fighting Falcon aircraft begun bombing Islamic State targets in Syria from Incirlik on 12 August, three days after they arrived at the Turkish airbase, a US military spokesman said. The six F-16s arrived at Incirlik on 9 August, two weeks after Washington

The Fairchild-Republic A-10 Thunderbolt II ground attack aircraft will return to Europe in the next few months, the US Air Force (USAF) confirmed on 11 August. In total, 12 A-10s from the 23rd Wing will deploy from Moody Air Force Base, Georgia, to Europe as part of a Theatre Security Package (TSP)

FFX: Jeonbuk launch
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South Korea currently owns some of the world’s best and most advanced shipyards. That civilian strength is beginning to create military leverage, and recent years have seen the ROK take several steps toward fielding a true open-ocean, blue water navy. Their new KDX-II destroyers, KDX-III AEGIS destroyers, LPX amphibious assault ships, and KSS-I/KSS-II (U209/U214) submarines will give the nation more clout on the international stage, but what about the home front? North Korea’s gunboats have launched surprise attacks on the ROK Navy twice in the last decade, while its submarines continue to insert commandos in South Korean territory, and committed acts of war by sinking ROKN ships. To the west, Chinese fishing rights are a contentious issue that has led to the murder of a Korean Coast Guard official on the high seas.

Hence the Future Frigate Experimental (FFX) program. It aims to build upon lessons learned from ROK naval shipbuilding programs in the 1980s and 1990s, and replace 37 existing ships with a modern class of upgunned inshore patrol frigates. A contract to build the lead FFX frigate Incheon was issued in December 2008, and South Korea continues to work to define the program, including the forthcoming Batch II design.

The FFX Class, and its Predecessors The ROKN’s Existing Fleet Ulsan Class
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It’s easier to understand and critique the thinking behind FFX, if you look at what it will replace.

The ROKN’s 9 small 2,200 – 2,300 ton Ulsan Class frigates were built in South Korea, and commissioned from 1981-1993. They’re not designed to operate alone in high-threat areas, or to provide general fleet defense on the open seas. Instead, they’re designed to serve as high-end coastal patrol vessels with a mix of anti-air (RIM-7 Sea Sparrow), anti-ship (guns, RGM-84 Harpoon), and anti-submarine capabilities. They carry a crew of 150.

The ROKN’s 24 Pohang Class 1,220 ton patrol corvettes were commissioned from 1984-1993, and have no anti-air missile capabilities. They mount 76mm, 40mm, and 30mm guns like the Ulsan Class, and are divided into 4 anti-surface warfare versions with MBDA’s Exocet ant-ship missiles, but no sonar or torpedoes; and 20 anti-submarine versions with sonar and torpedoes, but no missiles. They carry a crew of 95.

ROKS Cheonan, sunk by a North Korean torpedo in March 2010, was a Pohang Class ship.

Pohang Class
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The ROKN’s 4 low-end Dong Hae Class 1,000 ton patrol corvettes were commissioned from 1982-1983. they are armed with guns, sonar, and torpedoes, and also carry a crew of 95.

Bottom line? The Dong Hae Class are aging out of the water. The Pohang Class have shown that they can’t deal with North Korea’s subs, and have no air protection in waters that are more and more contested. The Ulsan Class can serve a while longer, but their equipment is outdated. Modern replacements are in order, and the threat’s challenges are pushing the ROKN toward an inshore corvette/frigate replacement that can carry higher-end equipment.

FFX: Batches and Key Improvements FFX combat system
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In contrast to the older classes described above, the new FFX frigates will follow the modern pattern of stealthier ship designs with far better radars, sonars, and communications equipment. The new class is said to have accepted less radar stealth in the design, however, in order to keep ship costs down. That’s an acceptable tradeoff for an non-expeditionary inshore frigate.

The new frigates were expected to begin service in 2011, with the first 6 all built and delivered by 2015, but those dates have slipped. The first-of-class Incheon was launched in April 2011, but formal delivery to the ROKN didn’t happen until late 2012, and the ship wasn’t commissioned until 2013. The ROK Navy still intends to replace all ships in the Ulsan, Pohang, and Dong Hae classes by 2020. Overall construction will take place in at least 2 batches, and possibly 3.

FFX Batch I: The Incheon Class ROKS Incheon
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The 1st batch of 6 FFX Incheon Class frigates measure about 114m long by 14m wide, with an empty weight of 2,300 tons and a crew of 145-170 sailors. Hyundai Heavy Industries claims a cruising range of about 8,000 km, though that would require a cruising speed well below the ship’s claimed 30-knot maximum.

Each FFX Batch I frigate is said to cost around WON 250 billion ($232 million), and the ROKN plans to have Hyundai Heavy Industries build 6 of them. Ships include:

• FFG-811, ROKS Incheon
  
• FFG-812, Gyeonggi (scheduled Oct. 2014)
  
• FFG-813, Jeonbuk (scheduled Dec. 2014)
  
• FFG-814, Gangwon (scheduled late 2015)

Even the FFX Batch I ships boast a number of significant improvements over the current Ulsan Class; their firepower and versatility will provide a very considerable upgrade over the ROKN’s existing corvettes.

Sensors. FFX ships’ use of improved modern sonars via a Thales/STX partnership has become a particular focus of attention, as post-Cheonan assessments questioned the adequacy of anti-submarine detection systems on earlier-model ships. The built-in sonar will eventually be complemented by a towed sonar, and the current plan is to produce that towed array in South Korea.

Other sensors include a Thales Smart-S Mk2 radar, and passive long range “electro-optical” day/night cameras. A SamsungThales combat system will integrate the ship’s sensors and weapons.

ROKN SL-300
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Weapons. FFX firepower improves sharply over past classes. The ships will carry BAE’s Mk45 MOD 4 5″/ 127mm gun for longer-range gunnery and amphibious support, RIM-116 RAM short-range missiles for killing missiles, aircraft and fast boats, and an embarked helicopter. Early reports also had the ships carrying a 30mm Thales Nederland “Goalkeeper” system like other South Korean combat vessels, to be used for last-ditch missile defense and small boat overkill. In the end, however, the FFX became the 1st Korean ship to carry Raytheon’s smaller and less structurally intrusive 20mm Phalanx Block 1B. Rheinmetall’s MASS decoy system and LiG Nex1’s SONATA electronic warfare system offer “soft kill” options.

Anti-ship missiles and light torpedoes will also be on board, as is the case with the current Ulsan Class. What’s new is that FFX’s Blue Shark (K745 Chungsangeo) torpedoes and 8 C-Star (Haeseong I) anti-ship missiles will both be Korean designs.

The ship’s hangar is large enough for smaller naval helicopters like South Korea’s Super Lynx 300s. A January 2013 contract indicates that the FFX frigates may eventually embark the next generation of Lynx helicopters: the AW159 Wildcat SCMR naval variant, with full anti-submarine capability that includes an advanced dipping sonar.

FFX Batch II SAAM concept
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Between 6-9 FFX Batch II ships are planned, to be built by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. These ships may be slightly larger, and will include almost all of the same core systems onboard Batch I ships.

One exception is the engine. Instead of using a CODOG system, Batch II ships will be powered by a single 36-40MW MT30 turbine, and propulsion will be all-electric. Finmeccanica’s newly-developed Permanent Magnetic Motor hybrid-electric drive will offer the ships weight, space and power advantages over standard AIM drive technologies, and all of those advantages are especially valued in a small ship.

The other changes are tied to a 16-cell K-VLS Korean Vertical Launch System that will broaden the ships’ weapon array, lengthen their reach, and add a lot of flexibility. K-VLS will let the frigate add locally-designed SAAM medium-range air defense missiles in place of the Batch I’s short-range RAM, along with vertically launched anti-submarine missiles like Korea’s own Red Shark, and longer-range Haeseong-II cruise missiles. There’s enough room to add another 16-32 cells in Batch III.

Finally, a larger hangar will allow Batch II frigate to handle larger 10-ton helicopters, like KAI’s own naval Surion helicopter.

Contracts and Key Events 2015

#6 launched with 20 scheduled to enter service by 2020.

August 13/15: #6 launched.The South Korean Navy has launched its sixth Incheon-class guided missile frigate. The Gwangju is the sixth vessel in a program of twenty new vessels scheduled to enter service by 2020. The new ship will undergo testing before deployment in 2016.

2013 – 2014

FFX #1 commissioned, #2-3 launched; FFX Batch II design unveiled; Long-term contract for Phalanx systems; AW159 helo picked for MH-X. Red Shark ASROC
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Aug 12/14: #4 launched. The Gangwon Ham is launched at STX Offshore & Shipbuilding’s yard in Changwon, Gyeongsangnam-do. There’s a bit of numbering confusion somewhere, because photos show the number 815 painted on the side. That’s out of sequence, and the official MND release says:

“Rear Admiral Choi Yang-sun, the first deputy chief of staff for planning and management in the Navy Headquarters, named the next fourth frigate ‘Gangwon’ and assigned ‘814’ as the ship number through the denomination No.460.”

The ship is scheduled to be handed over to the ROKN in late 2015, and enter service in 2016. Sources: ROK MND: “The next FFG, ‘Gangwon Ham,’ a powerful ship for safer Korean territorial waters”.

June 9/14: Urgency rises. North Korea is showing movies of new anti-ship missiles mounted on and fired from its military ships, and has also placed the new missile “among the country’s closely guarded submarines, which were also featured for the first time.” The missile sure looks like the Russian SS-N-25/ Kh-35, or a copy, and South Korea is taking the reports seriously enough that:

“Military authorities here are reportedly trying to find out where the North bought the Kh-35 missiles, on the assumption that it was clandestinely imported from a third country like Burma.”

North Korea’s willingness to attack South Korea, including the deliberate sinking of the ROKS Cheonan, makes the use of more advanced and longer-range Kh-35 missiles a potential issue for ROKN ships operating near the border. The Pohang Class was already defenseless against the KPANF’s 1950s-era SS-N-2 Styx missiles, but Kh-35s would outclass the Ulsan Class’ RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles as well, while allowing North Korean ships greater standoff firing distance. That could create pressure for more FFX ships, and/or acceleration of the FFX Batch II program. The Incheon Class’ RAM missile systems are an adequate point defense countermeasure, but only FFX Batch II ships and larger ROKN destroyers will offer an air defense umbrella that lets other patrol vessels nearby operate with confidence.

The good news is that North Korea has few naval platforms that are suitable for these missiles, and with respect to submarines, there’s a reason the videos were limited to placing a missile nearby. The KPANF’s 370t Sang-O and 130t Yono boats are unlikely candidates as missile subs. Ditto the ancient Romeo Class boats in service, unless they’ve been given significant Chinese or Russian upgrades – but Kim Jong-Un recently executed the most senior individual pushing for closer ties with China. Sources: Chosun Ilbo, “New N.Korean Anti-Ship Missiles Threaten Older Patrol Boats”.

May 26/14: Weapons. South Korea has been working to resolve problems with its vertically-launched “Red Shark” (Hongsangeo) rocket-boosted torpedoes since a formal complaint was filed in July 2012. They’ve just finished their 3rd consecutive successful test, which has led DAPA to resume production.

The ASROC-type weapons have been deployed on ROKN destroyers thus far, but FFX Batch II ships are also expected to include them. Sources: Yonhap, “S. Korea to resume production of homegrown torpedo after quality improvement”.

March 19/14: Sub-contractors. DRS Technologies Inc. announces a $9 million sub-contract from Korea’s Hyosung Corporation to design and produce FFX Batch II’s Hybrid Electric Drive propulsion system based on permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMM) technology The first ship-set is supposed to be delivered in 2015.

The equipment in question has a naval lineage that traces back to the USA’s DD-X/ DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer, whose Integrated Power Systems were initially set to be powered by DRS’ PMM technology. When PMM development took longer than expected, the ships switched to Alstom’s maritime standard Advanced Induction Motors (AIM) to help stay on schedule. DRS continued to develop their PMM technology, which is lighter, smaller, and produces much more power than AIM. They wound up being too late for use in the Zumwalt Class, but FFX Batch II will also use the MT30 turbine, so DRS’ past work is still valuable. This export foothold is a promising step for DRS, if the technology performs reliably. Sources: Finmeccanica’s DRS, “DRS Technologies Awarded Contract to Supply Its Hybrid Electric Drive System to Korean Navy’s New Class of Frigates”.

Feb 24/14: Weapons. Raytheon announces a $123 million Direct Commercial Sale (DCS) contract to deliver 9 Phalanx Block 1B 20mm Close-In Weapon Systems for installation aboard the ROK Navy’s 6 FFX Batch IIs, and aboard the AOE II successors to their 3 Cheonji Class supply ships. Phalanx deliveries will begin in 2016, and are scheduled to be complete in 2022.

DCS contracts are subject to different announcement rules than Foreign Military Sale contracts, and are managed directly by the buyer instead of by a US military surrogate. This is Raytheon’s largest DCS contract for Phalanx systems, and it was actually signed in Summer 2013. Sources: Raytheon, “Raytheon awarded $123 million Phalanx contract from Republic of Korea”.

Nov 13/13: #3 launched. Hyundai Heavy Industries holds a launch ceremony for Jeonbuk, the 3rd Incheon Class frigate. Sources: Portnews, “Hyundai Heavy launches new frigate.”

Oct 19/13: Batch II. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering unveils their FFX Batch II design, during a festival celebrating the 63rd anniversary festival of the Incheon amphibious landing that changed allied fortunes in the Korean War. Key changes include:

• 16 K-VLS vertical launch cells for Haeseong I/II cruise missiles and Red Shark ASROC torpedoes.
  
• The Batch I’s RAM short-range air defense missile launcher will be removed, in favor of a local medium-range SAAM system under development by LIG Nex1.
  
• A hangar big enough for a 10-ton helicopter like the Surion naval variant or MH-60 Seahawk.
  
• All-electric propulsion system to go with the ship’s extremely powerful (36-40MW) MT30 turbine, which replaces the previous CODOG arrangement.

FFX Batch II unveiled

March 3/13: Philippines. The Philippines has decided not to buy second-hand Italian Maestrale frigates from the 1980s, and will pursue 2 new frigates instead. That will be a major acquisition given their budgets, and they’re reportedly talking to South Korea about the Incheon Class as an option.

South Korea is building a broader defense relationship with the Philippines, and is in advanced stage negotiations to renew the PAF with KAI’s TA-50 light fighter. PNA via Defense Studies.

Jan 17/13: ROKS Incheon. The ROKN commissions ROKS Incheon [FFG-811], the first-of-class FFX Batch I frigate. Hyundai Heavy Industries will build 5 more FFX Batch I vessels under current plans, and the next 2 are scheduled to launch in mid-2013. Navy Recognition.

FFX #1 commissioned

Jan 16/13: AW159. South Korea picks AgustaWestland’s naval AW159 for its MH-X competition, with a planned initial buy of 8 helicopters. They will complement an existing fleet of 24 Super Lynx naval helicopters, and the ROKN’s new AW159s will have the full complement of dipping sonar, AESA radar, surveillance & targeting turret, rescue hoist, provision for anti-ship missiles and torpedoes, door gun, etc.

These helicopters will arrive from 2015-2016, and could serve aboard the new Incheon Class. As the FFX ships are built and fielded, follow-on buys become likely. Read “AW159 Wildcat: The Future Lynx Helicopter Program” for full coverage.

AW159 Helo picked

2010 – 2012

Contracts for Batch I ships 2-3; Initial ship launched; RAM/Phalanx picked; MT30 engine for FFX Batch II; Pohang Class ROKS Cheonan sunk. Incheon launch
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June 26/12: MT30 for Batch II. Rolls-Royce announces that its MT30 gas turbine has been picked to power the FFX Batch II frigates, which Rolls Royce touts as the first frigate to feature the MT30.

The decision also includes a contract to supply an engine for the 1st Batch II ship. Rolls Royce will build and test the engine, then ship it to Korea, where Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) will integrate it into the steel enclosure which also houses the air inlets, exhausts and ancillary equipment. Shipbuilder Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering (DSME) will install the enclosure in the ship.

The MT30 is the world’s most powerful marine gas turbine, delivering 36-40 MW, and The FFX Batch II frigates will use just 1 MT30, instead of carrying 2 turbines like most other frigates. This arrangement is similar to Lockheed Martin’s frigate-sized Littoral Combat Ship, but the MT30’s other platforms are revealing: the battlecruiser-sized DDG-1000 “destroyers,” and Britain’s CVF Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carriers.

Sept 12/11: Weapons. Raytheon signs a $65.5 million Direct Commercial Sale contract to deliver 5 Phalanx Block 1B Close-In Weapon Systems to the Republic of Korea Navy for the new FFX Batch I ships. The contract calls for the systems to be installed starting in April 2013, and represents Phalanx’s largest sale to the ROK fleet. Raytheon.

April 29/11: FFX-1 launch. Shipbuilder builder Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. in Ulsan launches the 1st FFX Batch I frigate: the 2,300-ton (empty) FFG-811 Incheon. Hyundai HI | Korea Herald.

April 11/11: Weapons. Raytheon announces that it has delivered the 1st 20mm Phalanx Block 1B Close-In Weapon System to the Republic of Korea Navy, representing the Phalanx’s introduction into the ROK fleet. The direct commercial sale calls for the Phalanx Block 1B system to be installed on the lead FFX frigate in 2011.

Raytheon expects to sign another contract with South Korea for an additional 5 Phalanx systems in the near future. The Phalanx has some small-ship advantages over Thales 30mm Goalkeeper, as it can be installed as a simple bolt-on.

March 29/11: Unconfirmed report that the lead FFX ship will be named ROKS KyungGi, and is expected to be launched in late April 2011. The date turns out to be right, but not the name. World Armed Forces Forum.

Sept 29/10: Ships #2-3. A spokesman from the ROK’s Defence Acquisition Programme Administration (DAPA) tells Jane’s that Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) has been selected to construct the 2nd and 3rd Ulsan-I class FFX frigates. A contract to build the 2 ships, estimated to be valued at around $600 million, is scheduled to be signed by the end of 2010, with deliveries from 2014. Jane’s.

Contract: ships #2-3

June 6/10: RAM & Phalanx picked. The Korea Times reports that Raytheon has beaten Thales Nederland and MBDA to supply the FFX frigates’ air defense weapons. Its RAM Rolling Airframe Missile reportedly beat MBDA’s VL-MICA (a surprise mention, as the Crotale NG/Mk3 is a closer analog, whose land variant is already in service with the ROK Army), while Raytheon’s 20mm Phalanx system was picked over the 30mm Goalkeeper system that equips other Korean ships.

A DAPA spokesman told the paper that the Phalanx CIWS contract was signed in May, while negotiations remained in progress for the RAM system. DAPA hopes to finalize that by July, and other DAPA sources are quoted as giving the Phalanx system an $11 million price tag, and the RAM system about $17 million.

March 26/10: ROKS Cheonan The Pohang Class corvette ROKS Cheonan is attacked and sinks, killing 46 of the 104 crew members. Subsequent investigation shows that it was sunk by a North Korean torpedo, fired from a submarine with what was apparently complete surprise.

The attack causes South Korea to re-evaluate its defense plans. The FFX project may end up receiving a boost, at the expense of high-end ships like the KDX-III AEGIS destroyers. Wikipedia re: Cheonan | Chosun Ilbo | JoongAng Daily | NY Times || ROK ambassador to US CSIS presentation [PDF] | Korea JoongAng Daily re: force rethink.

ROKS Cheonan attacked & sunk

2007 – 2009

Initial ship ordered.

Oct/Nov 2009: Sub-contractors. Marine Propulsion reports that:

“Degaussing systems from SAM Electronics of Germany are specified for the Korean Navy’s new FFX-class multi-purpose frigates, starting with the lead-ship due next year. The order maintains a 30-year relationship forged when one of SAM’s predecessors, AEG-Schiffbau, secured a contract to deliver such systems to the first-generation Ulsan-class light frigates built in Korea…”

Degaussing systems are used to help remove magnetism from a ship’s hull. Without them, the ship becomes a lot more vulnerable to weapons like naval mines.

July 20/09: The Korea Times reports that their Navy plans to establish a strategic mobile fleet of 2 destroyer-led squadrons by February 2010, in a bid to develop blue-water operational capability beyond coastal defense against a North Korean invasion.

Each mobile squadron would initially consist of a KDX-III Aegis destroyer, 3 4,500-ton KDX-II destroyers, and maritime aircraft. That would be augmented by submarines and smaller ships like the FFX frigates, once a forward naval base is finished on the southern island of Jeju, around 2014.

March 18/09: Jane’s reports that South Korea’s DAPA procurement agency has re-issued a tender for the FFX’s tactical air navigation (TACAN) systems, after just one potential vendor submitted a bid. That triggered a DAPA rule forcing the re-issue.

Dec 26/08: Ship #1. Hyundai Heavy Industries signs a WON 140 billion (about $106.5 million) contract to build the lead ship of the South Korean Navy’s new FFX frigate class. It is not clear whether this is a complete contract, a contract for the ship minus “government furnished equipment” like weapons, or a partial award.

Hyundai had been in charge of the basic FFX design. There had been rumors that Korea was considering the RIM-162 Evolved Sea Sparrow missile for medium-range air defense, to be mounted in a vertical launching system that could also host anti-submarine rockets and add new weapons over time. While the ships’ planned 4,550 nautical mile operating range might make that idea attractive, the South Korean Navy appears to have decided to contain costs, and stick to its original mission of coastal defense. Korea Times sources indicate that the new ships will not have vertical launchers. The Korea Times | Your Shipbuilding News.

Contract: Ship #1

Feb 5/07: Sensors. Thales Underwater Systems announces a contract from Korea’s STX Engine CO Ltd, for industrial cooperation aiming at the full scale development of a new Hull Mounted Sonar (HMS) for the FFX frigate program. The sonar will be based on current Thales off-the-shelf products, and final contract completion is expected in 2009.

Additional Readings FFX & Its Predecessors

• Global Security – FFK Ulsan class Frigate Korea (FFK)

• Naval Technology – Incheon Class Frigates / Future Frigate Experimental (FFX), South Korea

• Navy Recognition – Incheon Class Frigate – Republic of Korea Navy

• Naval Recognition (Oct 29/13) – DSME unveiled the FFX Incheon class Batch II, ROK Navy’s future multipurpose frigates

• Global Security – Pohang (PCC Patrol Combat Corvette)

• Global Security – Tonghae / Dong Hae (PCC Patrol Combat Corvette)

FFX: Ancillaries

• LiG Nex1 – Blue Shark. Lightweight torpedo used from ships, helicopters and aircraft.

• LiG Nex1 – Red Shark Anti-Submarine Guided Missile. Blue Shark + guided rocket + vertical launch.

• LiG Nex1 – C-Star Ship-to-Ship Missile. Haeseong I. Like the AGM-84 Harpoon missile it replaces, it uses its own fixed launchers.

• LiG Nex1 – Tactical Ship-to-Surface Missile Guided Missile. Also known as Haeseong II, “…converted from Haeseong to strike coastal and inland targets”. Reported to be a vertical launch weapon.

• The Korea Times (Sept 26/11) – Seoul develops supersonic cruise missile. “All I can say for now is that it will be able to fly faster than Mach 1,” [said a DAPA official]…. A ranking official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MOFAT) confirmed that the latest cruise missile is named Haeseong II…”

• DRS – Electric and Hybrid Electric Ship Propulsion Systems. Their HED uses a Permanent Magnetic Motor, a superior base technology vs. standard AIM motors.

• L-3 MAPPS – Experience. Entries include the Integrated Platform Management System (IPMS) for the FFX, as well as South Korea’s other modern surface combatants. The IPMS provides integrated monitoring and control of all of the ship’s platform machinery and systems such as propulsion, steering, electrical generation & distribution, auxiliaries, fire/smoke/flood detection and damage control. It also features advanced capabilities such as on-board full mission team training, and equipment health monitoring.

• Rheinmetall Defence – Protection Systems Sea. Includes the MASS (Multi Ammunition Softkill System) rapid decoy launcher, used on FFX.

• BAE Systems – Mk45 MOD 4 Naval Gun System.

• Rolls Royce – MT30 Marine gas turbine engine.

• SamsungThales – NCMS for FFX. Combat system.

• DID – Phalanx CIWS: The Last Defense, On Ship and Ashore

• LiG Nex1 – SAAM: Surface-to-Air Anti-Missile. It appears to be aimed at the RIM-162 ESSM tier of medium range missiles.

• LiG Nex1 – SONATA Ship EW System.

• DID – AW159 Wildcat: The Future Lynx Helicopter Program.

News & Views

• ‘Manoeuvre’ in Maritime Asia (Feb 9/09) – PKX-A’s Contributions to the S. Korean Naval Community. Launch of the Yun Yeong-Ha Class of 500t patrol boats. Note the upgrade to include anti-ship missiles, even at this level.

Americas

• The Navy’s new Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) carrier will undergo shock testing, despite this likely causing schedule delays of up to six months. Previously, Navy officials planned to carry out the tests – designed to replicate extreme combat stress – on the second carrier in class, the John F. Kennedy, due to enter service in the early 2020s, in order to accelerate the Gerald R. Ford’s entry into service. Pentagon procurement chief Frank Kendall reportedly ordered the Navy to conduct the tests, despite the inevitable delay such testing would produce.

• Boeing’s Compact Laser Weapon System (CLWS) successfully shot-down a UAV during the Army’s Black Dart exercise earlier this month. The 2kW laser engaged the UAV by focusing energy on the aircraft’s tail, inducing a loss of control. The system, capable of being transported by a squad of eight to twelve men, is thought to weight approximately 650lbs.

• Rockwell Collins has delivered the first Generation III helmet-mounted display system to the F-35 Joint Program Office. Use of a Distributed Aperture System (DAS) will allow pilots using the HMDS to see through the aircraft’s airframe, with the helmet system scheduled to enter the F-35 fleet during low rate initial production lot 7, timetabled for next year.

• The Brazilian Air Force has outlined what weapons it plans to procure to equip its new fleet of 36 Gripen E/F fighters, following the approval of a Swedish loan earlier this month for both the aircraft and weapons. The $4.6 billion deal will see the first Gripens delivered in 2019, with weapons including the A-Darter short-range air-to-air missile, the IRIS-T short-range air-to-air missile, SPICE bomb kits and targeting pods built by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd.

Europe

• The Czech Republic has decided to equip its fourteen leased Gripen C/D fighters with air-to-ground weapons, according to local press reports. The country signed a renewed leasing agreement with Saab last year, with this extending a ten-year deal in 2004 to 2027, with a two-year option period. The Czechs are scheduled to pay approximately $70 million a year for the fourteen aircraft, with the new, unspecific ground-attack equipment timetabled to enter service by 2018. The Czech defense ministry announced its intention to release a tender for the new weapons in late July.

Asia

• The Indian Air Force has reportedly cut the its required number of PAK-FA/T-50 fighters by half to approximately 65 aircraft. The joint Russo-Indian project has had its fair share of problems, not least lack of cooperation between the two co-developer nations. India is now looking to sign a research and development contract worth approximately $11 billion, with this having been kept on ice since 2013. The IAF is pressing for an off-the-shelf procurement, which would allow for speedier delivery than under the proposed R&D contract route, which would see delivery take place in around eight years’ time. The defense ministry is now reportedly looking to undertake both options simultaneously, with a reduced number of aircraft procured to fulfil IAF demand whilst eyeing future manufacturing opportunities through the parallel R&D contract.

• Afghanistan’s armed MD-530 helicopters have been used in combat for the first time, reports indicated on Wednesday. The Afghan Security Forces announced in July that the helicopters would be equipped with rocket pods to complement .50 cal machine guns. MD Helicopters was awarded a contract in March 2011 for the first six helicopters, with an additional order for a further twelve announced in September 2014.

• Taiwan’s Chung-shan Institute of Science and Technology has unveiled [Chinese] new air defense systems and unmanned aircraft at the country’s 2015 Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition. These include the Sea Oryx, a short-range air defense missile system, the Tan An rocket system and a Reaper-lookalike MALE unmanned aircraft.

• The South Korean Navy has launched its sixth Incheon-class guided missile frigate. The Gwangju is the sixth vessel in a program of twenty new vessels scheduled to enter service by 2020. The new ship will undergo testing before deployment in 2016.

Today’s Video

• An example of a ship shock test:

USA’s Nimitz Class &
UK’s Invincible Class
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Some nations have aircraft carriers. The USA has super-carriers. The French Charles De Gaulle Class nuclear carriers displace about 43,000t. India’s new Vikramaditya/ Admiral Gorshkov Class will have a similar displacement. The future British CVF Queen Elizabeth Class and related French PA2 Project are expected to displace about 65,000t, while the British Invincible Class carriers that participated in the Falklands War weigh in at just 22,000t. Invincible actually compares well to Italy’s excellent new Cavour Class (27,000t), and Spain’s Principe de Asturias Class (17,000t). The USA’s Nimitz Class and CVN-21 Gerald R. Ford Class, in contrast, fall in the 90,000+ tonne range. Hence their unofficial designation: “super-carriers”. Just one of these ships packs a more potent air force than many nations.

Nimitz Class cutaway
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As the successor to the 102,000 ton Nimitz Class super-carriers, the CVN-21 program aimed to increase aircraft sortie generation rates by 20%, increase survivability to better handle future threats, require fewer sailors, and have depot maintenance requirements that could support an increase of up to 25% in operational availability. The combination of a new design nuclear propulsion plant and an improved electric plant are expected to provide 2-3 times the electrical generation capacity of previous carriers, which in turn enables systems like an Electromagnetic Aircraft Launching System (EMALS, replacing steam-driven catapults), Advanced Arresting Gear, and integrated combat electronics that will leverage advances in open systems architecture. Other CVN-21 features include an enhanced flight deck, improved weapons handling and aircraft servicing efficiency, and a flexible island arrangement allowing for future technology insertion. This graphic points out many of the key improvements.

DID’s CVN-21 FOCUS Article offers a detailed look at a number of the program’s key innovations, as well as a list of relevant contract awards and events.

The New Gerald R. Ford Class CVN-21: Improvements and Innovations CV 1: USS Langley
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The Nimitz Class was designed in the 1950s and 1960s, and despite a number of equipment changes since then, the basic design remains. Rear Adm. Dennis M. Dwyer, the Navy’s program executive officer for aircraft carriers, put it this way in a May 2003 National Defense Magazine article: “If you take the time period between Nimitz and CVN-21 [design], it’s the same time period between [the USS] Langley (CV 1) – the first carrier – and Nimitz.” The Langley was commissioned in 1922.

The technological jump is much shorter. Aircraft carriers are a mature technology, and CVN-21’s refinements are more about marginal improvements to effectiveness, cost-efficiency, and future upgradeability than any revolution in carrier design.

Even so, creating a new ship class isn’t cheap. According to NAVSEA, the cost of the initial design work to create the CVN-21 ship class and develop its new technologies is projected at $5.6 billion. By 2005, as advance construction began, the estimate for building the CVN 78 Gerald R Ford was $8.1 billion, plus about $5.4 billion in ancillary work related to the class as a whole. Newport News worked to test the design-build strategy before overall construction kick-off in 2007.

DID investigated the CVN-21’s exact build cost, and the future operating cost savings expected as a result of its design innovations. Essentially, CVN-21 carriers are expected to generate savings in 2 major ways.

One is through an array of design and automation changes to various areas of the ship that reduce the required number of sailors aboard.

The other is through reduction in the number of major maintenance overhauls required. NAVSEA expects these changes to save $5 billion per ship over the ships’ projected 50-year lifetime.

Meanwhile, measures are being taken aimed at improving the carriers’ effectiveness and survivability.

Ford Class: New Technologies CVN-21 Enhancements
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An electromagnetic aircraft launching system (EMALS) will replace the steam-powered system used on current ships. The current steam catapults are large, heavy, and operate without feedback control. They impart large loads to the airframe via sudden shock, and are difficult and time consuming to maintain. Additionally, the trend towards heavier, faster aircraft will soon result in energy requirements that exceed the capacity of steam catapults.

EMALS Components
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EMALS offers a 30% increase in launch energy potential, as well as substantial improvements via reduced weight, smaller volume, and more flexibility; plus increased control, availability, reliability, and efficiency. Self-diagnostics can be embedded in it, simplifying maintenance. The other thing that simplifies maintenance is the removal of the 614 kg of steam required for each aircraft launch, plus hydraulics and oils, water for braking, and associated pumps, motors, and control systems. A corresponding Advanced Arresting Gear (AAG) system will replace existing Mk7 hydraulic motors with a system based on electric motors, in order to handle the arresting wires used to catch aircraft tailhooks on landing.

The EMALS-based system will take up far less space, providing design flexibility. EMALS launchers can be moved far more easily, downsized and incorporated into a ramp to provide additional launchers for short take-off aircraft, etc. Finally, its steadier acceleration is expected to reduce launch strains on naval aircraft, which helps extend their airframe life. That isn’t calculated as part of cost savings for the ship, but it definitely adds up over time.

The bad news? EMALS is such a big change from existing steam-driven catapult systems that it’s a critical technology for the CVN-21 Class. Its progress and performance will have a substantial effect on the ships’ on-time delivery, and on their ability to fulfill their cost promises.

Advanced arresting gear. The Naval Air Systems Command, headquartered at Patuxent River Naval Air Station, is working on an improved system for trapping aircraft as they land and hook the arresting cables. This electrical-hydraulic combination will be designed to be able to handle emerging platforms, such as the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-35C Joint Strike Fighter, which are heavier and able to return to the ship with more unexpended munitions than their predecessors.

A redesigned nuclear reactor is expected to supply 25% more power for propulsion, but require only 50% the maintenance costs and a 50% reduction in sailors required to operate it. Removing the steam catapults in favor of EMALS is synergistic, reducing work on the maintenance-heavy steam conduits and allowing the steam from the nuclear reactor to do other things – like make electricity. The CVN-21 Class is expected to have 3 times the electricity generating capacity of the Nimitz Class. If our personal experiences with power hungry electronics over the last 20 years are anything to go by, they may need it.

NAVSEA says that the Ford Class is planned to have a long-lived reactor, but an expensive mid-life refueling and complex overhaul (RCOH) is still planned after about 25 years of operation.

Rear Adm. Dwyer has estimated that these and other technical changes involving increased automation will enable the size of the CVN-21 ships’ crews to be reduced from about 3,000 – 2,500, and possibly as low as 2,100. Note that some 2,500 personnel are also carried in the air wing, and will not be subject to reductions from any of the methods described here.

DBR on CVN-21
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Dual-Band Radar. This was pioneered on the Zumwalt class DDG-1000 destroyers. Most warships carry 2 radars with very different functions. The volume search radar performs wide area scans over a large footprint, while the targeting and fire control radar guides missiles and other weapons fired by the ship. They are integrated at the combat system level, but each is a separate sub-system, operating in different bands with different detection strengths. The DBR approach integrates both a SPY-3 active-array X-band radar for excellent fire control against saturation attacks, and an active array S-band radar for wide area search and performance in clutter, in order to provide a single combat picture with fewer coverage gaps and better response. All in less space than existing systems, allowing designers to shrink the “island” tower on deck.

The use of active-array, digital beamforming radar technology will help DBR-equipped ships survive saturation attacks, since they can allocate emitters to track and guide against tens of incoming missiles simultaneously. Active array radars also feature better reliability than mechanically-scanned radars, and recent experiments suggest that they could have uses as very high-power electronic jammers, and/or high-bandwidth secure communications relays. Read “The US Navy’s Dual Band Radars” for full coverage.

Ford Class: Design Improvements CVN 79 Concept, 2009
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Electronic upgradeability. CVN 21 will also employ an integrated warfare system that allows its electronics to slot into a single, open-architecture, scalable weapons system, based on commercial, off-the-shelf technologies. Dwyer noted that the US Navy would like everything to “plug and play.” While technology never works quite that way, the process can be made easier – and doing so would improve long-term performance. As Rear Adm. Dwyer pointed out:

“Right now, the way we build aircraft carriers is to buy all the electronic equipment up front, then take seven years to build a ship and deliver it with obsolete electronics. It’s kind of crazy now that you think about it. We don’t want to do that any more… What we’d like to do is put the electronic equipment in separately from the actual shipbuilding process.”

Along similar lines, CVN-21 will feature a so-called smart deck, equipped with redundant and flexible fiber-optic cable that is easier to move and repair than hard copper wiring. It can be blown through the ship for installation – and more easily reeled out for replacement. Its capacity is also easier to upgrade, by clipping on terminating devices that allow for richer exploitation of different electromagnetic bandwidths of light.

A NASCAR flight deck philosophy. The “island” tower on the flight deck is being redesigned, reduced, and moved. As Rear Adm. Dwyer noted: “The people who actually handle aircraft said, ‘The island’s in the wrong place. It makes the aircraft all jam up. Why don’t you move it?'” So the island has shifted 100 feet aft, and the carrier’s elevators, deck et. al. are being shifted to a racetrack-like pattern of operations, complete with “pit stop” parking et. al.

It is this system that accounts for the expected 33% improvements in operational flights per day – a key measure of the carrier’s ability to both project power and defend itself. The US Navy’s goal is 160 sorties per day for the Ford Class, vs. the Nimitz Class’ 120 in a 12-hour fly day. Surge goal is 270 sorties on 24-hour fly days, vs. 240 sorties for the previous Nimitz Class.

Survivability also received attention. While the bridge and flight deck operations will remain on the island, the carrier’s command and decision centers are being moved from the island, to a “smart deck” down lower in the ship. This places them somewhere that’s both safer, and less in the way of aircraft operations. Meanwhile, the fuel tanks and bomb/ missile/ ammunition magazines are getting more armor, and the hull is being reinforced.

Transitional Carrier: CV 77, USS George H.W. Bush CVN 77: Men at work
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The improvements described above are large leaps. To help with this transition, the USS George H.W. Bush was designed as a transitional ship between the Nimitz Class and the Ford Class. As such, CVN 77 has been a candidate for development, evaluation, and incorporation of a range of advanced technologies and acquisition reform initiatives. The hope is that these initiatives would result in lower life cycle costs, and also set the standard by which further improvements in the CVN-21 Class will be measured.

Technology innovations fielded in CVN 77 are targeted to achieve a 15% reduction in Operation and Support Costs, and they will also be backfit as feasible in the other nine ships of the Nimitz Class through the Carrier Improvement Plan. The carriers’ mid-life refueling overhauls and refit are the most likely time, given the scale of effort required. Some cost-saving transitional features and improvements designated for this last ship of the Nimitz Class included:

• A new automated JP-5 jet fuel system with programmable consoles and an improved filtration system (for significant reduction in operational/maintenance workload)

• A new vacuum collection sewage system that utilizes fresh water instead of sea water for flushing. This creates fewer long term corrosion problems, and reduces the quantity of sewage from water closets and urinals by ratio of 10 to 1.

• Enhanced radio center automation, which involves integrating communications apertures and C4I systems within the radio room to enable an automated full service integrated network that operates at greater effectiveness and efficiency.

• A composite mast made from a lighter, composite material instead of steel that reduces topside weight (up to 20 tons) and reduces electromagnetic blockage. It also includes accelerated introduction of new antenna technology: mast clamp current probe antennas will eliminate numerous HF antennas.

• Some propulsion plant changes to reduce manpower and maintenance requirements, though this will not represent a full conversion to the new CVN-21 nuclear power plant.

The George H.W. Bush was originally scheduled to be finish construction in April 2008, but delays pushed the timeline back to about March 2009, and increased costs from $5.9 billion to $6.2 billion in appropriation-year dollars. The Newport News Daily Press reports that CVN 77 was commissioned on Jan 10/09 at NAS Norfolk, despite being approximately 3-4 months away from the point at which it would normally be considered ready. The ship was towed into place for the ceremony, whose date was set in order to commission the ship while its namesake’s son was still President. In practice, however, this meant that the Navy accepted the ship even though it had never tested its major operating systems or nuclear reactors at sea.

The carrier is now in service. She was officially delivered to the US Navy on May 11/09, and departed on her first mission on May 11/11.

The CVN-21 Carrier Replacement Program (click to view full)

The USA’s carrier replacement project has been underway at some level for many years now. Activity can easily trace back to 1994, and really kicked off in 1997 when the Naval Research Advisory Committee (NRAC) was asked to study technology opportunities that might be useful in “CVX.” From that moniker, the effort evolved to become the “CVN-21 Carrier Replacement Program.” As the ships are built and fielded, however, more and more references will be made to the CVN-78 Gerald R. Ford Class instead.

Long-lead appropriations for the Gerald R. Ford [CVN-78] began in 2001, and long-lead appropriations for the unnamed CVN 79 are already underway. Beyond that, construction of additional carriers becomes less certain. Current Pentagon plans call for a “drumbeat” of one new carrier every 5 years, which slows planned construction, raises per-ship costs by adding more fixed costs, and also imposes additional costs by requiring more re-designs for new electronics etc. with each new ship. The USA’s rapidly-deteriorating fiscal situation are throwing even that plan into difficulty, however, even as advances in ship-killing missiles are calling the large aircraft carrier’s pre-eminence into question.

Purchases of something as expensive as a super-carrier take time, and are spread over many annual budgets. First, finished items like engines, which must be present at early stages of construction, are bought as “long-lead” materials, along with some advance sub-assembly work. Then full construction funding is appropriated over several years. Recent budgets include:

(click to view full) 3-D Pump Room model
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The target date for CVN 78 commissioning was 2014, but current plans say it won’t be delivered before September 2015. Initial Operational Capability isn’t expected until FY 2017, with Full Operational Capability in FY 2018. When it does enter service, it will replace America’s first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier – the 50+ year old USS Enterprise (CVN 65), which retired in 2012. CVN 78 is also expected to serve for 50 years, from 2014-2064.

Newport News is designing the new ships using a 3-D product model tool called CATIA (Computer-Aided Three-Dimensional Interactive Application), a widespread standard for advanced design in the shipbuilding industry that is also in widespread use by the global auto industry. They’re also using CAVE, (Computer-Aided Virtual Environment), a 3D immersive environment tool used for viewing certain areas of the CATIA product model, and refining the construction strategy.

CVN-21 Class: Contract Awards & Key Events

Unless otherwise specified, the US Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) in Washington Navy Yard, DC manages the contracts. Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc., formerly Northrop-Grumman’s Newport News Shipbuilding and Drydock Co. in Newport News, VA, is the project lead and contract recipient.

FY 2013 – FY 2015

CVN 78 structural erection done. Cost inflation. CVN-21 Concept
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August 13/15: The Navy’s new Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) carrier will undergo shock testing, despite this likely causing schedule delays of up to six months. Previously, Navy officials planned to carry out the tests – designed to replicate extreme combat stress – on the second carrier in class, the John F. Kennedy, due to enter service in the early 2020s, in order to accelerate the Gerald R. Ford’s entry into service. Pentagon procurement chief Frank Kendall reportedly ordered the Navy to conduct the tests, despite the inevitable delay such testing would produce.

June 8/15: Huntington Ingalls was awarded $4.3 billion through two contracts on Friday, with the shipyard handed a $3.35 billion detail design and construction contract for CVN-79, a member of the Navy’s new class of super-carriers. The subsidiary of Newport News Shipyard also received a $941.2 million modification to a previously awarded contract in support of CVN-79, also known as the USS John F. Kennedy. The new class of carriers was recently criticized for being too expensive, with Huntington Ingalls the sole manufacturer of nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The John F. Kennedy is the second ship in the class, under construction with a cost-cap of $11.5 billion.

Mar 11/15: McCain complains about Ford-class costs.Former carrier pilot Sen. John McCain told Navy officials that the new Ford class of carriers is too expensive, coming in between $11 and $13 billion per copy. The first is being tested now before being delivered to the Navy. The second (JFK) and third (Enterprise) are in various states of construction. The Enterprise will be the ninth ship to take on the name. The eighth, CVN-65, was a carrier McCain served on in the 1960s, flying A-1 Skyraiders in a ground support role.

Mar 2/15: CVN-79 work moved up, but schedule stays put. The Navy tells Congress that it will move up work on the JFK, but not to launch the ship any sooner. To do so would create an impractical overlap of an extra carrier for a couple year prior to the retirement of CVN-68. Instead, they will delay the completion of the ship, waiting until the last minute to purchase and install the electronics, which presumably will be somewhat improved by the period just before launch in the summer of 2022.

Mar 2/15: CVN-73 will get its Refueling and Complex Overhaul in 2017, with preparation work moved up. The USS George Washington will come back to port in July 2017 for its RCOH. Work has been awarded to Newport News Shipbuilding for planning, design and procurement – a 30-month project leading up to the actual work.

May 8/13: Hearings. The US Senate Armed Forces Seapower subcommittee hears testimony from US Navy officials covering US Navy shipbuilding programs. The prepared statement says that a 2012 affordability review has led to noticeable changes in CVN 79, and lessons learned will lead to higher ship completion percentages at each build stage. An excerpt:

“Inarguably, this new class of aircraft carrier brings forward tremendous capability and life-cycle cost advantages compared to the NIMITZ-class it will replace. However, the design, development and construction efforts required to overcome the technical challenges…. have significantly impacted cost performance on the lead ship. [The detailed review and revised build plan for CVN 78]… will not recover costs to original targets… but should improve performance on the lead ship while fully benefitting CVN 79 and following ships of the class.”

See April 10/13 entry for expected costs per ship, which do decline in real terms for CVN 79-80. The question is whether practice will meet predictions. SASC prepared statement.

May 7/13: CVN 78. HII Newport News hoists the last of 162 primary structure “superlifts” onto CVN 78 Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), a 75 foot long, 66 ton ship catapult forward section.

The lift ends 3 years of structural erection work, and 3 1/2 years since construction began in November 2009. There’s still a lot of work left before the ship is even floated out to begin finishing: hull painting, shafting work, completion of electrical systems, mooring equipment, and installation of radar arrays. HII.

May 6/13: CVN 79. A $60.8 million long lead-time material contract for CVN 79, which began attracting funding in 2009. HII has been working with their suppliers, and HII VP for CVN 79 Mike Shawcross says that this award will help them implement some of those buying initiatives for air conditioning systems, controllers and pumps, etc. Announced CVN 79 construction preparation contracts now stand at $1.865 billion, with the main construction contract expected later in 2013.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2015 (N00024-09-C-2116). See also HII.

April 10/13: FY 2014 Budget. The President releases a proposed budget at last, the latest in modern memory. The Senate and House were already working on budgets in his absence, but the Pentagon’s submission is actually important to proceedings going forward. See ongoing DID coverage. The program remains steady, with $1.68 billion requested to fund the 2nd year of construction for CVN 79 John F. Kennedy, and completion costs for CVN 78 Gerald R. Ford.

The FY 2014 budget submission places the $FY13 cost of CVN 78 at $12.829 billion, and the expected cost of CVN 79 at $11.338 billion. CVN 80 is pegged at $13.874 billion (+22.4% vs. CVN 79), but that’s in 2018. Math reminder: just 4.2% inflation, compounded over 2014-2018, is 22.8%.

Per ship costs

April 1/13: CVN 78. HII in Newport News, VA receives an $18.2 million contract modification for for CVN 78 special tooling, special test equipment, and supplier related vendor support services.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete in September 2015. All funds are committed immediately, using the FY 2011 Shipbuilding and Conversion budget (N00024-08-C-2110).

March 28/13: GAO Report. The US GAO tables its “Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs“. Which is actually a review for 2012, plus time to compile and publish. As of August 2012, CVN 78 was 51% complete, but its build costs have grown by 17% since the 2008 construction contract was issued. There’s enough blame to go around. A build contract awarded when the 3D model was incomplete and only 5/13 critical technologies were mature. Government-furnished equipment arriving late. Construction problems like warping and flexing of new steel decking, a shortage of new valves, and welding complications. The DBR radar decision that forced the CVN-21 program to take on a new immature technology, instead of receiving a mature technology from the DDG 1000 program.

The 3D model is complete now, and either 6 or 12 of the 13 critical technologies are mature, depending on whether you ask GAO (6) or OSD (12). Now the challenge is to have all of the required sub-components arrive in configurations that fit the design, and don’t reveal a need for constraint-breaking changes during testing. CVN 79 John F. Kennedy and CVN 80 Enterprise will change in response to all of the construction and testing issues found in CVN 78 Gerald R. Ford, which is normal. The hope is that required changes won’t be too difficult to fit into CVN 79. Meanwhile, retrofits of CVN 78 could be costly, driving its build price higher.

The US Navy plans to award the CVN 79 main contract in September 2013, take delivery of the USS Gerald R. Ford in September 2015, have the Ford ready for deployment by March 2017, and award CVN 80’s main build contract by the end of 2017.

March 21/13: CVN 79. A $407.4 million contract modification can be drawn on in order to extend construction preparation efforts, and provide the ability to procure additional long-lead material and advance construction activities for CVN 79 if required. If the funds aren’t needed, fine. If budget issues or political gridlock create a problem, this funding can help preserve the construction schedule.

This may be an expansion of the March 7/13 contract. Either way, DID’s records show that the total for all announced contracts involving CVN 79 is around $1.8 billion so far. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA and is expected to complete by October 2015 (N00024-09-C-2116).

March 11/13: CNAS – Carrier eclipse? The center-left CNAS think-tank publishes a new example of their “disruptive defense papers,” with USN Capt. Henry J. Hendrix’s “At What Cost a Carrier?” [PDF] He proposes slowly divesting from aircraft carriers, while canceling the F-35C and building a transition bridge of UCAVs to lengthen carrier strike range and lower operating costs. Precision strike would also shift toward undersea platforms. On the surface, fewer carrier battlegroups would enable investment in more “influence squadrons” of amphibious ships, patrol corvettes, riverines squadrons, etc., in order to make up the “presence deficit” complained of by the Navy. The core of his argument is summed up in these excerpts:

“Nimitz-class carriers can generate approximately 120 sorties a day. Ford-class carriers, with the new… EMALS… launch around 160 sorties per day, a 33 percent increase in launch capacity. This seems very impressive until one realizes that the USS George H.W. Bush, the last Nimitz carrier, cost $7 billion and the USS Gerald R. Ford is coming in at $13.5 billion. In the end, the nation is paying nearly 94 percent more for a carrier that can only do 33 percent more work. 13 Even factoring in projected savings from reduced manning and lower maintenance costs, this investment is still not a good use of U.S. taxpayer money…. The inefficiency of manned aviation, with its massive fiscal overhead of training, pilot currency and maintenance, is rapidly outpacing its utility. The idea that the United States needs a large sortie capability inexorably drives decisionmakers to large carriers. These maritime juggernauts are expensive and hence need to be defended by an ever-larger ring of exquisite technologies in order to launch a historically shrinking number of very expensive aircraft from ever-increasing distances that may or may not drop their bombs. This raises the question of who is shaping whom within the current strategic environment.

To continue to invest in aircraft carriers at this stage, to believe that the USS Ford, with a service life of 50 years, can see the carrier through to a 150-year life unchallenged upon the high seas smells of hubris. Advancements in surveillance, reconnaissance, global positioning, missiles and precision strike all signal a sea change in not only naval warfare, but all forms of warfare.”

See also Information Dissemination, which responds that the carrier isn’t becoming obsolete – its air wing is.

March 7/13: CVN 79. A $65 million contract will provide the ability to order additional long lead material and advance construction activities if required. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2015. Additional funding is not being committed yet (N00024-09-C-2116).

Dec 1/12: CVN 80. Nearly 12,000 past and current crew members, family and friends attend the formal inactivation of the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, at Naval Station Norfolk, VA. It’s the last public ceremony, but there’s still a lot of work to do, and significant contracts to issue, before the ship is deactivated and safe.

US Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus doesn’t attend, but he plays a video message to announce that the 3rd Ford Class carrier, CVN-80, will become the next USS Enterprise when and if she is built. US Navy | USN CVN 65 site.

From one USS Enterprise to the Next

Jan 26/13: CVN 78. HII lowers the 555t “island” onto Gerald R. Ford’s deck. The island hosts the bridge, air traffic command center, etc. It’s the 452nd of about 500 modular “lifts” involved in assembling the carrier, which is almost 90% structurally complete right now. HII.

Jan 17/13: DOT&E Report. The Pentagon releases the FY 2012 Annual Report from its Office of the Director, Operational Test & Evaluation (DOT&E). The Gerald R. Ford is included, as the Navy plans for its service entry as the 1st ship of its class.

An operational assessment actually began in September 2012, trying to assess build progress and future test readiness. OT&E’s biggest concern is that the current Test and Evaluation Master Plan (TEMP) will test components, but doesn’t have enough testing involving all of the pieces working together. Their concern is that “platform-level” problems will start cropping up during Initial Operational Test & Evaluation, which can be hard to fix, and could delay either delivery or IOC.

The battle over Total Ship Survivability Trials (TSST) and the Full Ship Shock Trial (FSST) is still on. The Navy and OT&E are closer to agreement on TSST, but the budget isn’t there. They’re still at odds over moving FSST to CVN 79. The Navy wants to reduce the gap in available carriers. OT&E believes the 4-6 month delay is outweighed by having test data to affect the design of future carriers.

Other issues noted by the report involve various key technologies that will have a big say in whether the ship is ready on time, from the DBR radar (combat system integration an issue), to the EMALS (new armature, making progress), Advanced Arresting Gear (significant redesign of multiple components) and CANES onboard networking (testing in Q4 FY 2014). The Virtual Carrier model is a minor technology needed to test Sortie Generation Rate, which is supposed to represent a major improvement. It needs more refinement before it’s useful.

A final concern involves the F-35’s big engine, whose 10,000 “power module” is too heavy for current underway replenishment systems (the line and pulley system used with supply ships). The Ford Class carriers will have a system rated to 12,000 pounds, but plans to install that new system on the supply ships have slipped by 8 years.

Oct 4/12: Industrial. A 1,024-metric ton unit of CVN 78 is lifted into the drydock at the Huntington Ingalls Newport by the shipyard’s 1,050-metric ton crane. This superlift is their biggest to date, and contributed to assembling the gallery deck (i.e. O-3 level). HII | NAVSEA.

FY 2012

More work on CVN 78, 79. CVN 78: May 2012
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Sept 27/12: CVN 79. A $296.1 million contract modification for more CVN 79 John F. Kennedy long-lead-time materials, and continuation of construction preparation efforts in FY 2013. This will include necessary research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detail design and procurement of long lead material; advance construction; life cycle support; logistics data and other data.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2015 (N00024-09-C-2116).

Aug 30/12: CVN 78. A $9.7 million modification to the Gerald R. Ford’s cost-plus-incentive-fee detail, design and construction contract, covering one-time engineering efforts to configure the Gerald R. Ford’s decision centers. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to complete by September 2015. The USN Supervisor of Shipbuilding Conversion and Repair in Newport News, VA manages this contract (N00024-08-C-2110).

Including the main build contract in FY 2008, the total for announced contracts that are specific to CVN 78 is around $6.63 billion so far. Billions of dollars in contracts aimed at “CVN-21″ also contributed to the ship’s design, and to early manufacturing experiments and efforts, but their benefits will be shared among all ships of class.

Aug 9/12: Testing tiff. The DOT&E disagrees with the Navy’s position that computer modeling is enough to evaluate the new carrier’s survivability, without using explosive underwater shock tests. In fact, they’ve revoked approval of the Navy’s test plan. BusinessWeek:

“The U.S. Navy is inappropriately delaying or scaling back $70 million in needed combat testing of the USS Gerald R. Ford, an aircraft carrier that may cost $14.2 billion, in the name of cutting costs, according to the Pentagon’s top weapons tester.

A test that would “rigorously evaluate the ship’s ability to withstand shock and survive in combat” would be postponed until a second carrier in the new Ford class is built and may not be completed for seven years, Michael Gilmore, the Defense Department’s director of operational test and evaluation, told Navy Secretary Ray Mabus in a July 12 memo obtained by Bloomberg News.”

July 18/12: CVN 79. A $43.4 million contract modification for more CVN 79 “long lead time material.” That category actually includes research studies, engineering, design, life cycle support, and advance planning; as well as long lead items and advance construction.

To date, announced long-lead contracts for CVN 79 have reached $1.0478 billion. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2015 (N00024-09-C-2116).

July 16/12: CVN 78. A $7.6 million contract modification to buy previously planned materials to build CVN 78 Gerald R. Ford. This modification increases the effort under the existing cost-plus-fixed-fee provisioned items order. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to complete by September 2015. The Supervisor of Shipbuilding Conversion and Repair in Newport News, VA manages this contract (N00024-08-C-2110).

Dec 21/11: CVN 79. Huntington Ingalls, Inc. in Newport News, VA receives an $113.2 million contract modification, exercising options to continue construction preparation for CVN 79 John F. Kennedy, including engineering, detail design, and lead yard services. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2012 (N00024-09-C-2116). See also HII release.

Oct 26/11: CVN 79. A $16.9 million contract modification exercising priced CVN 79 research, development, test and evaluation options. HII will provide all services and material in preparation for final detail design and construction of the John F. Kennedy, including research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detailed design and procurement of long lead material; advance construction; life cycle support; logistics data; etc.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA. All contract funds will expire at the end of the current fiscal year, on Sept 30/12 (N00024-09-C-2116).

FY 2011

Work on CVN 78, 79. CVN 78: Aug. 2011
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Sept 12/11: Industrial. HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding division places an 825-ton superlift section, completing the Gerald R. Ford’s stern. The final superlift of the ship’s aft end included the steering gear rooms, electrical power distribution room, store rooms and tanks. At 90 feet long, 120 feet wide and 30 feet deep, the superlift was among the largest of the 162 that comprise CVN 78, the future USS Gerald R. Ford. HII.

Sept 8/11: Future carrier options. James Hasik looks at future options for the American super-carrier fleet, and delivers a preliminary cost analysis for various scenarios – including a scenario that involves halting the new CVN-21s after the John F. Kennedy, mothballing 2 existing Nimitz Class boats, and dropping to 8 operational carriers.

July 29/11: CVN 78. A $504.1 million contract modification to complete one-time platform engineering support related to the CVN 78, the Gerald R. Ford. Work will be conducted in Newport News, VA, and ship delivery is expected to take place in September 2015. (N00024-08-C-2110).

July 14/11: Rumors are flying that the Navy is looking to delay further carrier build contracts, in order to save money. A WTKR Virginia report adds fuel:

“U.S. Rep. Randy Forbes asked two top-ranking Navy admirals about a rumor he’d heard: that the Navy was considering deferring the purchase of the Newport News-built John F. Kennedy aircraft carrier by two years. The answer he received in a subcommittee hearing Tuesday – a beat of silence followed by a deflection – left him and other members of Virginia’s congressional delegation unsettled.”

Some proposals would even cancel the Kennedy, and use the money to buy LHA/LHD amphibious ships instead. American LHA/LHDs can carry fighters, and the LHA-6 America Class is an escort carrier in all but name. See Aviation Week | The Hill | WTKR.

May 29/11: The US Navy announces that CVN 79, the 2nd ship of class, will be named the USS John F. Kennedy. It will continue the namesake legacy of the non-nuclear powered CV 67, which was retired in 2007.

CVN 79 named

May 21/11: Industrial. HII moves a 945-ton pre-assembled “superlift” section into place near the stern of the ship, using the shipyard’s 1050-metric ton crane. This is one of the heaviest of 162 superlift modules making up the Ford, and was itself assembled over 18 months from 18 smaller structural units. It contains a diesel generator room, a pump room, an oily water waste pump room, 16 complete tanks and 18 partial tanks that will be completed when the superlift is welded to the rest of the ship.

The Gerald R. Ford’s keel was laid Nov 14/09, and christening is planned for 2013, with delivery to the U.S. Navy in 2015.

Feb 25/11: Steel is cut to begin building CVN 79, the 2nd carrier in this class. If only budgets and funding could be as certain. The carrier isn’t due for delivery until 2020, and the yard has received almost $1 billion for the carrier, but more than $900 million is tied up in Congress, as it wrestles with the FY 2011 and FY 2012 budgets.

Funding for the CVN-79 and a planning contract for the mid-life nuclear refueling and overhaul of the Abraham Lincoln carrier are both in flux at the moment. Both are “long fuse, big bang” projects, where the ability to order materials and ramp up staffing in a timely manner are critical. If funding issues create schedule stoppages, they’ll make the program late, and raise overall costs. Northrop Grumman | Newport Daily Press

CVN 79 “steel cut”

Jan 21/11: CVN 78. Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding Inc. in Newport News, VA received an $11 million contract modification to previously awarded contract in support of the USS Gerald R. Ford’s [CVN 78] engineering detailed design work.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete in September 2015. The US Navy Supervisor of Shipbuilding Conversion and Repair in Newport News, VA (N00024-08-C-2110).

Dec 8/10: CVN 79. A $323.6 million contract modification to continue construction preparation efforts for CVN 79, the as-yet unnamed 2nd aircraft carrier of the Gerald R. Ford class. Work will include necessary research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detailed design and procurement of long lead material; advance construction; life cycle support; logistics data, and other data to support the anticipated FY 2013 ship detail design and construction.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2012 (N00024-09-C-2116). This contract raises CVN 79’s specific announced advance contracts to $874.3 million over the last 4 years. See also Northrop Grumman release.

Nov 10/10: CVN 78. A $189.2 million contract modification is just part of the planned funding for detailed design engineering work supporting construction of the Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78].

Work includes engineering; integration; related development efforts including drawing and work package development; advanced planning; design weight estimate; lifecycle support products and related logistics data; production planning; test and evaluation; further definition of initiatives to reduce CVN 78 class total ownership costs; and other data necessary to support construction of CVN 78. Northrop Grumman’s Mike Shawcross, VP of Gerald R. Ford-class engineering adds that: “Now that the design is in the three-dimensional product model, our engineering and planning effort is focused on the production of instructions for the shops and ship assembly.”

Work will be conducted in Newport News, VA, and is expected to complete by September 2015. This contract was not competitively procured; there wouldn’t be any point (N00024-08-C-2110). See also Northrop Grumman.

Nov 5/10: CVN 79. A $55.1 million contract for additional materials and assemblies, as the shipyard gets ready for an expected CVN 79 ship detail design and construction contract in FY 2013.

Work includes necessary research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detailed design and procurement of long lead material; logistics data; and other data. It will be performed in Sunnyvale, CA, and is expected to be complete by Aug 25/14 (N00024-09-C-2116).

FY 2010

Cost increases. CVN 78: July 2010
(click to view full)

Sept 30/10: CVN 79. A $37.8 million contract modification for additional long lead time materials as the shipyard prepares to start building CVN 79, the 2nd Ford class carrier. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2016 (N00024-09-C-2116).

Sept 7/10: CVN 79. A $12 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract modification for procurement of additional long-lead-time materials in support of CVN 79 construction, the 2nd carrier of this class. Work may include research studies, engineering, design, related development efforts, advance planning, advance procurement, logistics data, and other data to support an expected FY 2013 ship detail design and construction date for CVN 79.

While aircraft carriers of the same class are broadly the same, the multi-year gap in construction generally means that each is fielded with slightly different technologies. Lessons from earlier ships also lead to minor design changes, which must be planned out and accounted for.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2011. This contract was not competitively procured, as the ship’s contractor is already determined (N00024-09-C-2116).

July 28/10: CVN 78. Northrop Grumman Corporation lifts 2 diesel generators weighing over 195,000 pounds each into the aft section of the Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78], at the company’s Shipbuilding sector in Newport News, VA. The ship is now about 11% complete.

When underway, the carrier will generate its electricity through its nuclear power plant. the diesel generators serve as emergency backups. Northrop Grumman.

May 12/10: CVN 78. Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, Inc. in Newport News, VA receives an $186.6 million contract modification, as part of the planned increments of detailed design engineering work supporting Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78] construction. Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding will complete the detail design and construction of CVN 78 including engineering; integration; related development efforts including drawing and work package development; advanced planning; design weight estimate; lifecycle support products and related logistics data; production planning; test and evaluation; further definition of initiatives to reduce CVN 78 class total ownership costs; and other data necessary to support construction.

These design efforts will continue to be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by September 2015 (N00024-08-C-2110).

May 3/10: Gates’ speech. US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates delivers a speech at the Navy League’s annual Sea-Air-Space Convention, in National Harbor, MD. It’s widely seen as casting doubt on the future of the USA’s Ford Class carriers. Excerpts:

“The U.S. operates 11 large carriers, all nuclear powered.  In terms of size and striking power, no other country has even one comparable ship… At the higher end of the access-denial spectrum, the virtual monopoly the U.S. has enjoyed with precision guided weapons is eroding – especially with long-range, accurate anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles that can potentially strike from over the horizon.  This is a particular concern with aircraft carriers and other large, multi-billion-dollar blue-water surface combatants, where, for example, a Ford-class carrier plus its full complement of the latest aircraft would represent potentially a $15 to $20 billion set of hardware at risk. The U.S. will also face increasingly sophisticated underwater combat systems – including numbers of stealthy subs – all of which could end the operational sanctuary our Navy has enjoyed in the Western Pacific for the better part of six decades… Our current plan is to have eleven carrier strike groups through 2040 and it’s in the budget. And to be sure, the need to project power across the oceans will never go away. But, consider the massive over-match the U.S. already enjoys. Consider, too, the growing anti-ship capabilities of adversaries.  Do we really need eleven carrier strike groups for another 30 years when no other country has more than one?  Any future plans must address these realities.

And that bring me to the third and final issue:  the budget… Just a few years ago, the Congressional Budget Office projected that meeting the Navy’s shipbuilding plan would cost more than $20 billion a year – double the shipbuilding budget of recent years, and a projection that was underfunded by some 30 percent… I do not foresee any significant increases in top-line of the shipbuilding budget beyond current assumptions. At the end of the day, we have to ask whether the nation can really afford a Navy that relies on $3 to 6 billion destroyers, $7 billion submarines, and $11 billion carriers.”

April 20/10: CVN 79. Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, Inc. in Newport News, VA received a $16.8 million modification to buy more long lead time materials, as part of construction preparation for CVN 79, the 2nd carrier of this class. Work will include necessary research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detailed design and procurement of long lead material; logistics data; and other data to support the anticipated FY 2013 ship detail design and construction contract.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by March 2012 (N00024-09-C-2116).

April 1/10: SAR – Congress costs us. The Pentagon releases its April 2010 Selected Acquisitions Report, covering major program changes up to December 2009. The new carriers experience large cost increases, but most of them are self-inflicted by Pentagon program scheduling. The exception is the EMALS catapult system:

“Program costs increased $5,426.4 million (+15.5%) from $35,119.1 million to $40,545.5 million, due primarily to the shift from a four-year to five-year build cycle (+$4,131.2 million), which placed the program on a more fiscally sustainable path while continuing to support a minimum of 11 aircraft carriers through fiscal 2040. Additional increases resulted from revised cost estimates for the Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) (+$1,292.6 million), platform non-recurring engineering (+$350.0 million), and labor and material projections (+$311.7 million), a stretch-out of the procurement buy profile (+$520.6 million), and the application of revised escalation indices (+$301.8 million). These increases were partially offset by decreases resulting from inflation and other miscellaneous adjustments (-$933.1 million) and a shipbuilding reduction across the program (-$627.0 million).”

SAR increase

March 30/10: The US GAO audit office delivers its 8th annual “Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs report. With respect to the “CVN 21 Program,” it says:

“The CVN 21 program has consistently demonstrated the maturity of its critical technologies later than recommended by best practices… Three of these technologies – EMALS, advanced arresting gear, and dual band radar-present the greatest risk to the ship’s cost and schedule… Construction of approximately 50 percent of the ship’s units are complete. According to program officials, these units are low on the ship and only account for 9 percent of the ship’s production hours… the fiscal year 2010 President’s Budget recommends moving the carrier to a 5-year build cycle. If adopted, the fabrication start date for CVN 80 will be delayed by 2 years, which will increase the amount of shipyard overhead costs paid under the CVN 79 contract.”

Most of the GAO’s commentary concerns critical carrier sub-systems, however, and those comments are covered in that section, below.

Dec 23/09: CVN 79. A $31.8 million modification to a previously awarded contract, to buy more long lead time materials as the Navy prepares to begin construction on CVN 79. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by April 2013 (N00024-09-C-2116).

Nov 14/09: CVN 78. A 23-story, 1,050 metric ton capacity gantry crane lifts an 81-foot by 96-foot building block into place in Dry Dock 12, during a keel-laying ceremony for the Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78]. Under partial block construction, each module is pre-outfitted with pipes and fixtures that will make final assembly quicker and more efficient. This ship’s blocks are larger than past carriers, which forced a $40 million upgrade of the gantry crane. Local media report that yard workers have assembled about 540 of 1,200 blocks that will be welded together in dry dock from 2009-2012, to form the Ford’s skeleton. A new $37 million stadium-sized manufacturing facility with a retractable roof will allow work to continue in any weather, and the firm hopes this will help the Ford avoid some of the delays that have plagued other carriers.

NGC’s Newport News shipyard has been assembling the units since 2006, with about 1,500 waterfront workers and about 2,000 engineers and planners involved in the program at the end of 2009. When construction peaks in 2013, the number of construction workers is expected to hit 4,000. US Navy | Northrop Grumman | Newport News, VA Daily Press | Reuters.

CVN 78 “keel laying”

Oct 28/09: FY 2010 budget. President Obama signs the FY 2010 defense budget into law. The Pentagon’s FY 2010 budget request of $1,397.3 million included 1,223.7 million as the 3rd year of incremental funding for CVN 78, plus 173.6 million in RDT&E. The reconciled budget tables that came out of House-Senate conferences list $739.3 million for the program, but the release characterizes it as full funding of the Pentagon’s request. White House | House-
Senate Conference Report summary [PDF] & tables [PDF] | Pentagon AFPS article.

Oct 9/09: CVN 78. Northrop Grumman uses the foundry at its Newport News, VA shipyard to melt 35 tons of steel, in order to cast the strut arms needed to support the Gerald R. Ford’s propeller shafts. Their release quotes aircraft carrier construction program VP Mike Shawcross, who says that about 5% of the construction contact is complete at this point. The Nov 14/09 keel-laying is the next major milestone.

FY 2009

EMALS dependency. CVN 78, March 2009
(click for alternate view)

April 3/09: Tech crunch. Naval site Information Dissemination runs an article assessing EMALS’ current state, and the Navy’s contention that the system poses no schedule risks. The title: “Wal-Mart Called, They Want Their Yellow Smiley Face Back.”

Despite the title, the background is valuable, and the discussion is substantive. Is EMALS a technology too far? Or is it just a complex technology with more issues than expected, each of which is being dealt with but at a rate that creates some schedule concerns? What, if anything, does a realistic Plan B look like? Delay construction until EMALS is ready, given its promised operations costs savings? Extensively redesign CVN 78 for steam catapults? Buy another CVN 77 design ship instead, and store the pieces that have already been made?

March 30/09: GAO report. The US government’s GAO audit office issues GAO-09-326SP: “Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs.” With respect to EMALS and the CVN-21 program, it says that 10/14 technologies are either fully mature, including the nuclear propulsion and electrical plant, or approaching maturity. Of the remaining 4 immature technologies

“…the development and design of the electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), the advanced arresting gear, and the dual band radar (composed of the volume search and multifunction radars) present the greatest risk to the ship’s cost and schedule.”

Ominously, it adds:

“A February 2008 program assessment recommended a number of changes to the EMALS program to improve performance. The Navy re-planned the test program and changed the management approach. The CVN 21 program office is now responsible for overseeing EMALS production and ship integration, rather than the Naval Air Systems Command. In addition, EMALS will no longer be provided as government-purchased equipment. Instead, the shipbuilder will purchase EMALS, giving it a more direct role in managing the integration on CVN 78. The cost impact of this change has not been finalized.”

There are also schedule concerns:

“Problems during EMALS development have already resulted in cost growth and schedule delays. In order to meet CVN 78’s delivery date, the Navy adopted a strategy that will test, produce, and ultimately install EMALS with a high degree of concurrency. In September 2008, the contractor completed the first round of high- cycle testing, gaining confidence in the performance of the generator–a source of past problems. Contractor-led integrated land-based system testing will not be complete until the end of fiscal year 2011–2-years later than estimated in December 2007. Assuming no further delays, EMALS will not demonstrate full performance of a shipboard ready system until at least 7 months after installation on CVN 78 has begun…”

Jan 15/09: CVN 79. A $373.5 million cost plus fixed-fee contract covering construction preparations for CVN 79, the 2nd aircraft carrier of the Gerald R. Ford Class. Efforts will include engineering, detail design, test and evaluation, research and development with some suppliers, and purchases of long lead time items. Special performance incentives are also included under the contract.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA, and is expected to be complete by October 2010. This contract was not competitively procured (N00024-09-C-2116). The full scale construction contract for CVN 79 is expected to begin in 2012. Northrop Grumman release.

FY 2008

Main CVN 78 contract. CVN 78 sub-assembly
(click to enlarge)

Sept 10/08: A $5.115 billion cost-plus-incentive-fee, cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost-plus-award-fee contract for the detail design and construction of USS Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78]. This contract includes a $30 million option which would bring the total contract value to $5.145 billion, if exercised.

The May 21/04 contract covered up to $2.7 billion in advance construction or purchase of sections and items that were not dependent on the detail design; Northrop Grumman says that about 1/3 of the ship’s 1,200 structural units are already under construction. This contract takes the next step, and begins full ship construction based on the detail design. The contract will include engineering; integration; related development efforts including drawing and work package development; advanced planning; design weight estimate; lifecycle support products and related logistics data; production planning; test and evaluation; further definition of initiatives to reduce CVN 78 class total ownership costs; and other data necessary to support construction of CVN 78.

Work will be performed in Newport News, VA. The ship’s keel will be laid in the fall of 2009 (Nov 14/09), and delivery to the Navy is scheduled for September 2015. This contract was not competitively procured (N00024-08-C-2110). See also NGC release.

Main CVN 78 contract

March 14/08: During US House Armed Services Seapower and Expeditionary Forces Subcommittee hearings about the proposed the FY 2009 budget, chairman Gene Taylor [D-MS] discusses on the state of the program:

“Another very risky program is the new aircraft carrier. Not that the Navy and Newport News Shipyard don’t know how to build aircraft carriers, they do. However, one of the major new technologies, the electro-magnetic launch system, or EMALS, has not even been tested in a shipboard configuration and the ship is already under construction. Just this last week the Navy requested an additional $40 million dollars for continued development of EMALS because, and I quote, ‘the contractor underestimated design and production cost.’ The cynic in me would say the contractor purposefully low-balled the bid to get the contract knowing full well the Navy would be forced to pay whatever the true costs of the system turned out to be. Perhaps we should have built another Nimitz class carrier until the research and design for EMALS was complete.”

Read “US Navy’s 313-Ship Plan Under Fire in Congress” for more.

Jan 31/08: CVN 79. A $16.3 million modification to previously awarded contract (N00024-07-C-2116), exercising an option to develop and refine the second-of-class CVN 79 design. The integrated product and process development contract funds research and development that aims to reduce the price, reduce lifetime ownership costs, and maintain weight/center of gravity service life allowance thresholds. All of which ties in to the ongoing systems development, engineering services, technology options studies, and feasibility studies underway for the as-yet unnamed CVN 79. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA and is expected to be complete by October 2008.

Jan 11/08: CVN 78. A $595.9 million modification to previously awarded contract (N00024-04-C-2118) to continue CVN 78 class design effort, long lead time material procurement; and non-nuclear advance construction for the lead ship of the class, Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78]. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA (92%) and Groton, CT (8%), and is expected to be complete by July 2008. See May 21/04 entry for more details.

Northrop Grumman Newport News “will provide all services and material in preparation for construction of CVN 78 including necessary research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts, including required engineering development models and prototypes for engineered components; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detailed design and procurement/fabrication of long lead material; advanced construction; system specifications; design weight estimate; logistics data; lists of government-furnished equipment; production planning; further definition of initiatives to reduce CVN 78 class total ownership costs; and other data to support an integrated product data environment for the CVN 21 program.”

FY 2007

Gerald R. Ford class.

Sept 24/07: Rep. Roscoe Bartlett [R-MD], the ranking minority member in the US House Armed Services subcommittee on Seapower & Expeditionary Forces, releases a statement re: the GAO’s August 2007 report, which he requested:

“At my request, the Congressional Research Service, the Congressional Budget Office previously and now the GAO have told Congress the Navy’s current shipbuilding program is unrealistic based upon the Navy’s past performance. The development of three critical technologies has been delayed to such an extent that this first-of-class ship must experience 100% success in order to come in on budget and on schedule eight years from now. The GAO report also reminds us that both the shipbuilder’s initial cost estimate and the DOD independent estimate were higher than the Navy’s budget. As far as comparisons to LCS go, what is most disturbing is that the cost for CVN 78 is orders of magnitude higher than LCS. If CVN 78 should experience just 10% cost growth – far less than LCS – in the eight years until its scheduled delivery, the Navy will request another billion dollars. In this budget environment, that’s going to be a difficult sell. It reminds me that VADM Cebrowski’s alternative fleet study suggested a larger number of smaller carriers might provide more value than the Navy’s strategy of a few Super Carrier platforms.”

Aug 23/07: GAO report expresses doubts re: project costs:

“While the Navy has mitigated the impact of some technologies, such as the nuclear propulsion and electric plant, three systems–the electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), the dual band radar, and the advanced arresting gear–have faced problems during development that may affect the ship’s construction costs… A structured design approach and a lengthy construction preparation contract have enabled the program to perform more work prior to construction than on previous carriers… Costs for CVN 78 will likely exceed the budget for several reasons. First, the Navy’s cost estimate, which underpins the budget, is optimistic… Second, the Navy’s target cost for ship construction may not be achievable… Third, the Navy’s ability to manage issues that affect cost suffers from insufficient cost surveillance. Without effective cost surveillance, the Navy will not be able to identify early signs of cost growth and take necessary corrective action.”

July 24/07: In a statement before the US House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Expeditionary Forces, Congressional Budget Office representatives testify that [PDF]:

“CBO believes that the Navy’s cost estimate for the first ship of the class, the Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), is optimistic. In its budget submission to the Congress, the Navy estimates that the CVN-78 will cost about $10 billion in 2008 dollars, including about $2.2 billion for nonrecurring engineering and design.16 The Navy argues that actual construction time and cost for the CVN-78 will be less than for its predecessor ship, the George H.W. Bush (CVN-77). CBO, by contrast, estimates that the CVN-78 will cost about $11 billion, allowing for the cost growth that has affected past shipbuilding programs at the CVN-78’s stage of construction. If the CVN-78 experiences [cost growth] similar to that of other lead ships the Navy has purchased in the past 10 years, costs could be higher still.17 Moreover, Navy officials have told CBO that the confidence level associated with their estimate is below a 50 percent probability of meeting the cost target, which also suggests that costs could increase. In addition, a number of critical technologies for the CVN-78 are still under development, and difficulties could still arise in integrating the various new technologies associated with that class.”

Jan 19/07: Gerald R. Ford Class: It’s official. Secretary of the Navy Donald C. Winter announced that USS Gerald R. Ford would be the name of the first CVN-21 aircraft carrier, which would henceforth be designated the Gerald R. Ford Class. This selection honors the 38th President of the United States, and pays tribute to his lifetime of service in the Navy and the U.S. government. See official NAVSEA release.

“Gerald R. Ford” Class

Nov 30/06: CVN-21. A $754 million modification (cost type) to previously awarded contract #N00024-04-C-2118 for continuation of CVN-21 design effort; long lead time material and non-nuclear advance construction; and system development, engineering services, and feasibility studies for the Future Aircraft Carrier Program. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA (90%) and Groton, CT (10%), and is expected to be complete by December 2007. The contract includes an additional $106.7 million in options which would make this an $860.7 million award, and bring the total value of Northrop Grumman’s CVN-21 advance construction contracts so far to $2.1 billion.

See May 21/04 entry for more details. Under this contract modification, Newport News will provide all CVN-21 services and material in preparation for ship construction planned to commence in FY 2008, “including the necessary research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts including required Engineering Development Models and prototypes for engineered components; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detailed design and procurement/fabrication of long lead material; advanced construction, system specifications; design weight estimate; logistics data; lists of government-furnished equipment; production planning; further definition of initiatives to reduce CVN-21 total ownership costs; and other data to support an integrated product data environment for CVN-21.”

Mike Shawcross, vice president of the CVN 21 program for Northrop Grumman Newport News, said that they are “more than 50% complete with the overall design.” See also Northrop Grumman press release.

FY 2006 and earlier

Specs complete. CVN 79 early concept
(click to enlarge)

Nov 15/06: CVN 79. DefenseLINK announces a $7.4 million cost-plus-fixed-fee, level of effort contract for systems development, engineering services, and feasibility studies for CVN 79, the second ship of the class. Northrop Grumman, on the other hand, announces it as a $24.6 million total planning and design contract, including planning, feasibility studies, system development, engineering services and other design efforts. Work will be performed in Newport News, VA and is expected to be completed by October 2007. The contract was not competitively procured (N00024-07-C-2116).

“This is our first contract for the CVN 79 and an important step forward for the CVN 78 program,” said Mike Shawcross, the vice president responsible for CVN 79 at Northrop Grumman’s Newport News sector. “We’re focused on using the work we’ve accomplished on the first ship of the class, CVN 78, as the basis for a successful integration into the planning and design for CVN 79.” Construction on CVN 79 is slated to begin in 2012, with delivery to the US Navy in 2019.

Oct 17/06: Gerald Ford? President George W. Bush signs the John Warner National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2007. Section 1012 of the act declares that “[it] is the sense of Congress that the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier of the Navy designated as CVN-78 should be named the U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford.”

Sept 5/06: The Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) and the Program Executive Officer (PEO) Aircraft Carriers held a signature and awards ceremony at the Washington Navy Yard to commemorate the certification of the ship specifications for the CVN 78 aircraft carrier, after 12 months of specification writing and 3 months of intense reading sessions. NAVSEA’s Ship Design, Integration and Engineering Directorate (SEA 05) and lead design shipyard Northrop Grumman Newport News led these efforts.

This certification marks a major milestone in the future aircraft carrier design process, and forms the basis of the technical data package used to prepare a ship construction contract. The CVN 78 Ship Specifications were signed by Rear Adm. David Architzel, PEO Aircraft Carriers, and Rear Adm. Kevin M. McCoy, NAVSEA’s deputy commander for SEA 05. NAVSEA release | PEO Carriers release.

Specifications done.

July 29/06: Leadership. Rear Adm. Dennis M. Dwyer is honored at the end of his tenure as PEO Carriers. He receives the Navy Distinguished Service medal for his “exceptionally meritorious service,” for his efforts in “Aircraft Carrier design and build, government and industry business modeling, and workforce restructuring methodologies… Dwyer’s ultimate contribution – the design and build of the U.S. Navy’s Next Generation Aircraft Carrier – CVN 21 – will decisively affect the Nation’s strategies, policies, and defensive posture for the next 50 years…” See NAVSEA release.

Nov 15/05: CVN-21. A $558.7 million cost-type modification exercises an option under previously awarded contract N00024-04-C-2118 for continuation of CVN-21 design effort; long lead time material procurement and non-nuclear advance construction; system development, engineering services, and feasibility studies for the future aircraft carrier program. See Oct 29/04 for further details.

Work will be performed at Newport News, VA (92%) and Groton, CT (8%), and is expected to be complete by December 2006, though it would be followed by other contracts in this vein in 2006 and 2007. This contract was not competitively procured. See also Northrop Grumman’s press release.

June 7/05: CVN-21. A $9.2 million cost-type modification for CVN-21 construction preparation, non-propulsion plant long lead-time material and advance construction. Work will be performed at Newport News, VA and is expected to be complete in December 2006. This contract was not competitively procured (N00024-04-C-2118).

April 1/05: CVN-21. A $50.6 million cost-type modification for continuation of CVN-21 engineering services and feasibility studies for the future aircraft carrier program. Work will be performed at Newport News, VA (85%) and Groton, CT (15%), and is expected to be complete by December 2006. This contract was not competitively procured (N00024-04-C-2118).

Oct 29/04: CVN-21. A $492.1 million cost-plus-fixed-fee and cost-plus-award-fee modification exercises an option for continuation of CVN-21 design effort; long lead time material and non-nuclear advance construction and system development, engineering services, and feasibility studies for future aircraft carrier programs. See May 21/04 entry for further details.

Newport News Shipbuilding will provide all CVN-21 services and material in preparation for ship construction planned to commence in FY 2007, including research studies; engineering; design; related development efforts including required engineering development models (EDMs) and prototypes for engineered components; advanced planning; advanced procurement for detailed design and procurement/ fabrication of long lead material; system specifications; design weight estimate; logistics data; lists of government-furnished equipment; production planning; further definition of initiatives to reduce CVN-21 total ownership costs; and other data to support an integrated product data environment for CVN-21.

As we have seen with programs like the LPD-17 San Antonio Class, changes at the design stage are far cheaper to execute than changes at the engineering stage. Work will be performed at Newport News, VA (87%) and Groton, CT (13%), and is expected to be complete by October 2005. This contract was not competitively procured (N00024-04-C-2118).

May 21/04: CVN-21. A $182.5 million cost-plus-fixed-fee contract with performance incentives for CVN-21 design effort; long lead time material and non-nuclear advance construction; and system development, engineering services, and feasibility studies for the Future Aircraft Carrier Program. Newport News Shipbuilding will provide all CVN-21 services and material in preparation for ship construction. Work will be performed at Newport News, VA (87%) and Groton, CT (13%), and is expected to be complete by December 2006. This contract was not competitively procured (N00024-04-C-2118).

Northrop Grumman would later describe this contract as having a potential total value of $2.7 billion, adding that this contract to build and buy key sub-assemblies and sectional pieces:

“…allowed shipbuilders to test the design-build strategy, exercise new processes, prototype new features used on this ship before the overall construction contract was awarded, and to build a sufficient backlog of ship units to support production, undocking and delivery.”

CVN-21: Other Related Contracts and Events

Coverage under this section includes 2 key technologies that are also broken out as independent, free-to-view articles: EMALS electro-magnetic aircraft catapults, and the accompanying AAG arrester gear system; and the carrier’s new AN/SPY-3 & AN/SPY-4 dual-band radar. Listings for those 2 programs will feature only major milestones.

FY 2012 – 2013 1st F-35C launch
(click for video)

May 29/13: JPALS. Raytheon in Fullerton, CA receives a $14.6 million cost-plus-incentive-fee contract modification for the Joint Precision Approach and Landing System (JPALS), maintenance Design Phase II. They want to change the design to allow for increased organizational level maintenance (i.e. on board ship) of JPALS Increment 1A ship systems.

Work will be performed in Fullerton, CA (60%); Cedar Rapids, IA (28%); and Indianapolis, IN (12%); and is expected to be complete in December 2013. $13.9 million is committed immediately, using FY 2012 – 2013 funds, and $5.3 million of those will expire at the end of the current fiscal year, on Sept 30/13. US Naval Air Systems Command in Patuxent River, MD manages the contract (N00019-08-C-0034).

JPALS
click for video

May 24/13: JPALS. The Pentagon finally releases its Dec 31/12 Selected Acquisitions Report [PDF]. For JPALS, which began development in 2008:

“Joint Precision Approach and Landing System (JPALS) Increment 1A – Program costs increased $106.8 million (+10.7%) from $996.0 million to $1,102.8 million, due primarily to additional engineering effort for algorithm refinement and development of an alternate configuration for the JPALS Inc 1A ship system variant, resulting in a smaller footprint for air capable ships (small combatants) (+$84.5 million). Additional increases were attributable to an extension of the procurement and installation profile from FY 2018 to FY 2020 (+$15.3 million) and a related increase in support costs (+$2.3 million), and a quantity increase of 1 system from 26 to 27 systems (+$7.5 million) and associated estimating allocation (-$1.4 million). These increases were offset by a decrease in initial spares requirements (-$1.5 million).”

The GPS-centric JPALS will be installed well beyond the Ford Class – indeed, beyond the US Navy. This technology may become a separate article, but for now we’re adding it here as a key CVN-21 technology, which will play a critical role in handling F-35 fighters and UAVs. A JPALS 1A Milestone C production decision is expected in Fall 2013.

JPALS landing system – cost increases

Nov 18/11: F-35C launches. The land-based EMALS at Lakehurst, NJ launches an F-35C Lightning II fighter for the 1st time. The EMALS launch of test aircraft CF-3 follows more than 50 steam catapult launches.

Both EMALS and the F-35C are currently in test and evaluation, but the F-35C is especially important to the new catapult, and the new carrier. The heavy fighter will be their most significant technology companion over the carrier’s life cycle, and its 70,000 pound/ 31,800 kg maximum takeoff weight places it very close to the F-14D Tomcat. EMALS and the F-35C need to demonstrate that they can help each other with maintenance costs, or the real price of EMALS will escalate significantly. US NAVAIR.

FY 2010 – 2011

May 9/11: EMALS Delivery. General Atomics delivers the 1st set of EMALS production components to US NAVAIR, for installation in the Gerald R. Ford. NAVAIR will convey the items on to Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc., in Newport News, VA. General Atomics.

March 31/11: CVN 78 CEC. An $8.1 million contract modification for AN/USG-2B systems delivery and test aboard the Nimitz Class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln [CVN 72, headed into deep refit] and the Gerald R. Ford. It’s a key component of the Navy’s Cooperative Engagement Capability, which allows equipped ships to share a common picture of threats around them, even if those threats are out of their own sensor range.

Work will be performed in Largo, FL (47%); St. Petersburg, FL (20%); Dallas, TX (18%); and McKinney, TX (15%), and is expected to be completed by May 2013 (N00024-08-C-5203).

1st EMALS launch: F/A-18E
(click to view full)

Dec 18/10: Launch! The EMALS test catapult at Naval Air Systems Command in Lakehurst, NJ successfully performs the 1st electro-magnetic aircraft catapult launch in history.

The F/A-18E Super Hornet from Air Test and Evaluation Squadron 23 (VX-23) was piloted by Lt. Daniel Radocaj. Chief Petty Officer Brandon Barr of NAWCAD’s Test Department was the “shooter,” assisted by Petty Officers 1st Class Hunsaker and Robinson, and Petty Officers 2nd Class Williams, Wong, and Simmons.

Engineers will continue system functional demonstration testing at NAVAIR Lakehurst, with test launches set to expand to C-2 Greyhound cargo aircraft and T-45 Goshawk trainers in 2011. The ALRE program manager at this time is Capt. James Donnelly, and Cmdr. Russ McCormack of PMA-251 is deputy program manager for future systems. US NAVAIR | USN Photo release | Gannett’s Navy Times.

1st EMALS Launch

Oct 12/10: AWE. Exlar Corporation announces an award from Federal Equipment Company in Cincinnati, OH to provide its GM30 linear actuators for the Gerald R. Ford’s Advanced Weapon Elevators. The AWEs can carry up to 24,000 pounds at speeds up to 150 feet per minute, a big improvement over previous designs.

Exlar’s GSM30 linear actuators are used to fire locking pins to keep the elevators in position at each deck level. They combine a brushless servo motor, an inverted roller screw and an encoder/resolver feedback source into a single compact assembly. The brushless servo design allows them to be used in state-of-the art closed loop servo systems, where electronic control of positioning and velocity is required.

Aug 11/10: SDTS tests. Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems in Tewksbury, MaA receives a $36.1 million contract modification (N00024-05-C-5346) for mission systems equipment (MSE) that will be used on the US Navy’s Self Defense Test Ship, in support of the Anti-Air Warfare Self Defense Enterprise Test and Evaluation Master Plan. The equipment will support the DDG 1000 and CVN 78 classes of ships, in addition to follow-on operation test and evaluation efforts for the Evolved Sea Sparrow Missile (RIM-162 ESSM) and Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program (SEWIP).

Work will be performed in Andover, MA (58.7%); Portsmouth, RI (32%); Sudbury, MA (5.4%); Tewksbury, MA (2.7%); and San Diego, CA (1.2%). Work is expected to be completed by March 2013. US Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC manages this contract.

March 31/10: Power & cooling. Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems in Tewksbury, MA received a $9.8 million modification to previously awarded contract (N00024-05-C-5346) for CVN 78 dual-band radar common array power system and common array cooling system long-lead time materials and associated efforts. These materials, and associated engineering and management efforts, must be bought now, to ensure that critical production schedules are maintained for the CVN 78 program.

Work will be performed in Andover, MA (87.8%); Sudbury, MA (10.4%); Tewksbury, MA (0.9%); and Portsmouth, RI (0.9%), and is expected to be complete by September 2010. The Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC manages these contracts.

March 30/10: GAO report. The US GAO audit office delivers its 8th annual “Defense Acquisitions: Assessments of Selected Weapon Programs report. With respect to key CVN-21 sub-systems, DID has divided the comments by system:

“While CVN 21 program officials stated that the EMALS program is on schedule to deliver material to the shipyard when it is needed for construction, concurrent EMALS testing and ship construction continue to present cost and schedule risks to the program… As a result of the [2009 EMALS] tests, the program identified design changes that are necessary to improve the performance of EMALS, but add cost and schedule risk to the program… The Navy plans to test EMALS with actual aircraft in summer 2010. The Navy awarded a not-to-exceed fixed-price production contract to General Atomics for EMALS and the advanced arresting gear in 2009. At the time of award, the contract price had not been finalized. The Navy expects to finalize the price of this contract in March 2010.”

“…The advanced arresting gear includes seven major subsystems. Programs officials expect that six of the subsystems will be mature after analyzing data from a recent reliability test. The remaining subsystem – control system software – will remain immature until integrated land-based testing with actual aircraft occurs in fiscal year 2012. This testing will overlap with the first arresting gear deliveries to the shipyard.”

“…Testing of carrier specific dual band radar functionality is scheduled to conclude in fiscal year 2012. Dual band radar equipment will be delivered incrementally from fiscal years 2012 through 2014… Given the recent decision to truncate the DDG 1000 program, CVN 21 program officials stated that the dual band radar production line may be idle for up to 4 years before production begins for CVN 79 [and so adding] costs associated with restarting the production line.”

March 12/10: Fiber optic cabling. As fiber optic cable replaces conventional cabling in large naval vessels, driving down component manufacturing and repair costs becomes especially appealing. The US Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division in Dahlgren, VA issues the Kitco/kSARIA LLC limited partnership small business in Norfolk, VA a $9.8 million contract for the automated fiber optic manufacturing initiative (AFOMI). AFOMI seeks to drive lifetime fiber optic component manufacturing and repair costs down by miniaturizing and automating as many processes as possible. If the effort suceeds, it will have obvious benefts beyond CVN 78, or even the military sphere.

Kitco/kSARIA LLC is a limited partnership of KITCO Fiber Optics in Virginia Beach, VA (contract administration, 10%), and kSARIA Corp. in Lawrence, MA (technology development & manufacturing, 90%). kSARIA has worked with the US Navy for some time, and touts itself as “the only fiber cable manufacturer in the world with an end-to-end automated assembly process.” Work is expected to be complete in March 2015, but $1.5 million in contract funds will expire at the end of the current fiscal year. This contract was competitively procured via the Naval Electronics Commerce Online and Federal Business Opportunities Web sites, with 2 offers received (N00178-10-D-2003). See also Military & Aerospace Electronics magazine | Video overview.

Nov 9/09: AAG. General Atomics in San Diego, CA receives a $102.2 million modification to the unfinalized EMALS Ship-set contract (N68335-09-C-0573) to provide for the production of 1 counterpart advanced arresting gear system ship-set for CVN-78. While EMALS will serve as the Ford’s launch technology, the Advanced Arresting Gear will offer related improvements around carrier landings, using a system based on electric motors rather than the Mk7 hydraulic system used with current arrester wires. Unlike EMALS, AAG is also slated for refits to existing Nimitz class carriers.

Work will be performed in San Diego, CA (35%); Mt. Pleasant, PA (28%); Tupelo, MS (15%); Waltham, MA (12%); and Aston, PA (10%), and is expected to be complete in September 2015. The Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division in Lakehurst, NJ manages the contract.

AAG CVN 78

FY 2007 – 2009 EMALS motor, HCT-1
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June 30/09: EMALS. General Atomics in San Diego, CA received an unfinalized $573 million ceiling-priced contract to build the EMALS shipset for the Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78]. This is added to a $43 million long-lead contract (q.v. March 27/09), creating a total of $613 million.

Work will be performed in San Diego, CA (49%); Tupelo, MS (19%); Mankato, MN (12%); Waltham, MA (4%); and various locations across the United States (16%), and is expected to be complete in September 2015. This contract was not competitively procured, pursuant to FAR 602-1. The Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division in Lakehurst, NJ manages this contract (N68335-09-C-0573).

CVN 78 EMALS

April 23/09: DBR. Raytheon Integrated Defense Systems in Tewksbury, MA received a $217 million cost plus fixed fee modification to a previously awarded contract (N00024-05-C-5346) for 2 Volume Search Radars (VSR). Lockheed Martin makes the antennas for these radars, but Raytheon is the lead contractor, and also makes the radars’ common back-end electronics and software.

These S-band naval radars will be mounted on one of the new DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyers, and on the inaugural CVN-21 carrier USS Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78]. Work will be performed in Moorestown, NJ (95%) and Sudbury, MA (5%), and is to be complete by March 2013. The Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, D.C. manages this contract.

DBR radar for CVN 78

April 15/09: Review. Reuters reports that the U.S. Navy has completed a major review of EMALS that weighed possible technical, costs, and schedule risks. The Navy has decided to proceed, on the grounds that EMALS is the best option for keeping the program on schedule, vs. redesigning and building the ship for steam. The system’s potential cost savings are also listed as a factor by US Navy spokesman Lt. Cdr. Victor Chen.

The Navy is reportedly starting detailed, fixed-price contract negotiations with General Atomics. If that becomes the basis for a renegotiated contract, it would shift the risk of delays or additional work onto the contractor.

EMALS survives

April 7/09: DBR. Raytheon announces a successful initial “lightoff” test of the Dual Band Radar, which includes the X-band AN/SPY-3 Multi-Function Radar and S-band Volume Search Radar. Both radiated radiated at high power during lightoff at the Navy’s Engineering Test Center in Wallops Island, VA. Following this successful lightoff test, the radar suite will begin an extended period of operational performance testing.

March 31/09: EMALS. The Daily Press of Virginia reports:

“We’re still conducting a review to assess and mitigate risks in the program cost, schedule and performance of EMALS,” said Lt. Cmdr. Victor Chen, a Navy spokesman. “At this point, EMALS is still the launching system of record for (the Ford).

…If EMALS is scrapped for the Ford, the shipyard would have to re-engineer the carrier to support the old steam-driven catapults used on previous ships. That process, which includes running thousands of feet of new pipe to and from the Ford’s propulsion system, could extend the construction schedule by up to a year and is expected to cost several hundred million dollars.”

“At this point…” is perhaps not the ringing endorsement one had hoped for.

March 27/09: CVN 78. Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, Inc. in Newport News, VA received $43 million, unfinalized modification to a previously awarded contract (N00024-08-C-2110). The contract covers long lead-time materials that must be ordered early, in order to ensure timely production of Gerald R. Ford’s [CVN 78] EMALS catapults. Materials bought will include Energy Storage Subsystem (ESS) Induction Motor Stator Assemblies, ESS Induction Motor Rotor Assemblies, ESS Exciter Stator Assemblies, ESS Exciter Rotor Assembly, ESS Rectifier Assemblies, ESS Main Rotor Assemblies and Power Conversion Subsystem Rectifier material components.

Work will be performed in North Mankato, MN (74%); Mt. Pleasant, PA (17%); and San Diego, CA (9%), and is expected to be complete by November 2012. The US The Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington Navy Yard, D.C. manages this contract.

EMALS CVN 78

Nov 3/08: Nuke plant. Curtiss-Wright Corporation announces a contract from Bechtel Plant Machinery, Inc. (BPMI), to provide critical valves for the nuclear propulsion systems in the U.S. Navy’s next 4 Virginia-Class submarines, and the 2nd Ford-Class Aircraft Carrier [CVN 79]. The contract contains options for up to 4 more sets: a submarine ship-set and an aircraft carrier ship-set funded in 2008, and 2 additional submarine ship-sets to be funded in 2009.

The value is over $83 million if all options are exercised, and the initial award is for an initial ship-set of submarine valves and long lead materials valued at approximately $15 million. Curtiss-Wright’s Flow Control segment will perform the work at its facility in East Farmingdale, NY. Delivery is scheduled to commence in 2009 and continue through 2017.

Variants of Curtiss-Wright’s Smart, Leakless Valves are already used in the commercial nuclear power industry. These fully automated, sealed solenoid valves can control the flow of liquids, gas, and steam, withstanding up to 2500 psi pressure and 670F temperatures while requiring little to no maintenance over long periods. The firm is now using the valve beyond nuclear power applications, and has a $62 million contract to retrofit all of the JP-5 jet fuel pumping station valves on the U.S. Navy’s Nimitz class aircraft carriers.

Oct 20/08: DBR. Raytheon announces a $23.5 million U.S. Navy contract to adapt the Dual Band Radar (DBR) it’s developing for the DDG-1000 Zumwalt Class destroyer, for installation on the future U.S.S. Gerald R. Ford [CVN 78]. Raytheon will deliver DBR supporting equipment hardware and software designs to meet the installation and integration requirements of the CVN 78 class of ships.

Sept 30/08: SSDS. An $8.3 million cost-plus fixed-fee letter contract to act as the SSDS Platform System Engineering Agent. The contractor will be responsible for the integration of complex war-fighting improvements into the modular SSDS, including components associated with the new Gerald R. Ford Class carrier’s Dual Band Radar (DBR), and with the popular Rolling Airframe Missile (RAM) Block 2.

Work will be performed in San Diego, CA (90%); Tewksbury, MA (2.5%); Portsmouth, RI (2.5%); St. Petersburg, FL (2.5%); and Tucson, AZ (2.5%), and is expected to be completed by April 2009. This contract was not competitively procured (N00024-08-C-5122).

Nov 28/07: General Atomics’ Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) catapult recently passed its final critical design review (CDR), led by Mr. Dave Cohen of NAVAIR’s Systems Engineering competency. The team spent a week thoroughly reviewing the entire EMALS program, and determined that the design is technically compliant with requirements and properly documented, although “a few open action items remain.” As noted above, EMALS is one of the new technologies that will be critical to the CVN-21 Class’ ability to fulfil its cost-saving promises and enter service on time.

Capt. Stephen Rorke, Aircraft Launch & Recovery Equipment program manager thanked the team for open and honest dialog during the months leading up to the CDR as evidenced by the fact “the team knew about all open issues prior to the review and that no issues of major significance surfaced during the CDR.”

The next step in the process is to begin installing the full size, ship representative EMALS equipment in the recently completed EMALS test facilities at Naval Engineering Station Lakehurst, NJ. The EMALS equipment installation is scheduled to begin in mid 2008, with actual testing to begin in early 2009 and continue throughout 2009. The first components of the EMALS equipment is scheduled to be delivered to Northrop-Grumman Newport News Shipbuilding in Norfolk, VA for installation in the Gerald R. Ford [CVN-78] in 2011. The USS Gerald R. Ford is scheduled to be delivered to the US Navy in 2015. NAVAIR release.

EMALS CDR

FY 2004 – 2006 new weapons elevator
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Dec 13/05: Electronics. Raytheon Company passed the systems requirements review (SRR) for the CVN-21 Class’ electronics. They’re the industry lead for integration of all government furnished combat systems, C4ISR (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) and aviation support systems.

Raytheon is working to leverage the open architecture and technology advancements achieved as the mission systems integrator on the DD (X) destroyer and LPD-17 San Antonio Class ship programs. The idea is to create common technologies and processes across multiple platforms in the U.S. Navy fleet. Raytheon.

Oct 20/05: AWE. Northrop-Grumman selects Federal Equipment Company and their technology partner, MagneMotion to design and build the advanced weapons elevator for CVN-21.

Newport News sector awarded the approximately $50 million contract following a year-long design competition, during which vendors refined their designs and built and tested a full-scale, one-quarter load elevator drive. The preliminary design competition concluded in early 2005, and a full-scale prototype elevator for land-based testing is the next step. Prototype testing will be completed by late 2007, after which Federal Equipment will begin to manufacture the production units. These units are scheduled for shipboard installation on CVN 78 in mid-2010.

AWE SDD

Oct 20/05: Nuke plant. The Naval Sea Systems Command in Washington, DC awards Bechtel Bettis Inc. at Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory in West Mifflin, PA a $480.7 million cost-plus-fixed-fee modification to previously awarded contract (N00024-98-C-4064) for naval nuclear propulsion work at the Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory. As DID notes in its coverage: “Bettis [Atomic Power Laboratory] is engaged solely in the design and development of naval nuclear propulsion plants. …A major new initiative for the Laboratory is design of the nuclear propulsion plants and electrical power systems for the next class of US Navy aircraft carriers.”

See “The US Navy’s Nuclear Propulsion Contracts” for coverage of all American naval nuclear propulsion work.

Aug 11/05: Infrastructure. On Aug. 11 Northrop Grumman Newport News hosted a ceremonial steel cut and grand opening ceremony for one of several new facilities that will support CVN-21 construction. The ceremony was held in the shipyard’s new Heavy Plate Bay.

April 18/05: SSDS. Raytheon Technical Services Company LLC will lead a group of companies working under the Navy’s direction to design, install and test a new version of their SSDS combat system, which will integrate all onboard weapons systems and electronics on the Navy’s first CVN-21 class aircraft carrier (CVN-78). These systems will protect CVN-78 from attack by cruise missiles and other weapons, and integration will be centered on Raytheon’s proven Total Ship System Engineering approach to a common enterprise computing environment. DID covers the contract, which could be worth up to $95 million over 12 years.

Feb 23/05: AAG pick. Reports indicate that the US Navy has selected a team led by General Atomics to perform the System Development and Demonstration (SDD) phase of the Advanced Arresting Gear (AAG) Program. The Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) down-selected from the 2 contractors performing the Component and Technology Development phase. Other team members are Curtiss-Wright Electro-Mechanical Corporation, Engineered Arresting Systems Corporation, Foster-Miller, Inc. (now QinetiQ North America), John J. McMullen Associates, Inc., and EDO Corporation.

In the 5-year, $95.8-million SDD phase, the GA-led Team will design, develop, manufacture, install, and demonstrate a production-representative AAG unit. System installation and demonstration will be at a NAVAIR test facility at Lakehurst, NJ. Defense West News.

AAG SDD

April 2/04: General Atomics is awarded a System Development and Demonstration (SDD) $145 million contract to design, build, integrate test and support a full scale, full length, shipboard representative Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) for NAVAIR Lakehurst, at the Naval Air Engineering Station Lakehurst, NJ. The contract is the final step in a multi-phase research and development acquisition program to replace the current steam catapults used on aircraft carriers. According to the Navy release, “General Atomics, based in San Diego, will have its equipment installed at Lakehurst by 2006 and conduct testing in 2007-2008.”

The EMALS land based support facility is to be built by Hensel Phelps Construction Co., of Aurora, CO under a $20.5 million contract, and is expected to be complete by December 2005 [DID: the ribbon cutting would actually take place in November 2007, and construction will last to late 2008]. It will include building the infrastructure, supporting buildings and related utilities for the EMALS program. US Navy | General Atomics.

EMALS base SDD

July 30/03: Infrastructure. The US Navy opens its new CVN-21 Government Design Site in the Washington Navy Yard. The design site will have 60 workstations and allow more than 100 engineers to participate on an as-needed basis in the CVN-21 design effort. This will include engineers from NAVSEA, Naval Air Systems Command, Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command, Office of Naval Research, Northrop Grumman Newport News, as well as Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren and Carderock Divisions. Although the CVN-21 design site is not the first at the Washington Navy Yard, it is the largest. Co-locating government engineering and technical expertise close to the aircraft carrier program office is designed to ensure critical and timely support throughout the design effort – a vital factor to the continued success of the program.

CVN-21 Class: Additional Readings and Sources

• Northrop-Grumman Newport News – CVN-21 team site

• US Department of the Navy Research, Development & Acquisition – CVN 21 Aircraft Carrier. Pretty bare-bones, but an authoritative source for the most basic specifications.

• Global Security.org – CVN-21 (formerly CVX)

• USNI Proceedings (September 2012) – A Leap Ahead for the 21st Century Navy. Describes the core characteristics and advantages of the class.

• DID (Dec 19/05) – Costing the CVN-21: A DID Primer. Sets the record straight on the CVN-21 Class’ cost per ship, and also goes into detail re: the lifetime operating cost savings expected as a result of design and technology innovations.

• Gannett’s Navy Times (Feb 22/12) – Navy looks to rein in carrier program costs

• GlobalSecurity.org – CVN-77 – George H.W. Bush

• Northrop-Grumman Newport News – George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) Home Page

• GlobalSecurity.org – CVN-68 Nimitz Class. See also accompanying links for more in-depth background, including their Ships List with its linked Strike Group information for each ship.

• Naval Technology – Nimitz Class Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers, USA

Official Reports

• US Government Accountability Office (GAO-07-866, Aug 23/07) – Navy Faces Challenges Constructing the Aircraft Carrier Gerald R. Ford within Budget. “The Navy requested authorization of CVN 78 in its fiscal year 2008 budget. GAO was asked to assess the Navy’s ability to meet its goals for developing the new carrier. Specifically, this report assesses (1) the extent to which technology development could affect the capability and construction of CVN 78, (2) the status of efforts to achieve design stability, and (3) the challenges to building CVN 78 within budget. To accomplish this, our work includes analysis of test reports, development schedules, and ship progress reviews; interviews with Navy and other officials; and examinations of cost estimates and our own past work.”

• US House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Expeditionary Forces (July 24/07) – Congressional Budget Office, Statement of J. Michael Gilmore, Assistant Director for National Security and Eric J. Labs, Senior Analyst: The Navy’s 2008 Shipbuilding Plan and Key Ship Programs [PDF format]

• Congressional Research Service Report for Congress (May 25/05) – Navy CVN-21 Aircraft Carrier Program: Background and Issues for Congress. The figures won’t match DID’s figures above. This DID article explains the differences.

• US DoD Office of Force Transformation – Alternative Fleet Architecture Design study [PDF format]. This is the study led by Vice-Adm. Cebrowski. See also this June 2005 Congressional Research Service Report that includes this study and 2 others [Google HTML cache | PDF Format].

• RAND Corporation (2002) – Refueling and Complex Overhaul of the USS Nimitz (CVN 68): Lessons for the Future

Ancillary Systems

• DID Spotlight – EMALS: Electro-Magnetic Launch for Carriers

• American Heritage (Spring 2006) – Shot Into the Air. Good look at the use of naval catapults from their earliest days to the forthcoming EMALS. Fine conceptual schematic of the modern steam catapult included.

• GlobalSecurity.org – Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System – EMALS

• General Atomics – Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS)

• Smithsonian Air & Space Magazine (Dec 2007 – Jan 2008) – How Things Work: Electro-Magnetic Catapults

• Aviation Week (Jule 13/07) – Risk Areas In CVN 21 Cost, Development

• Defense Tech (April 5-7/07) – EMALS: Next-Generation Catapult and Building a New Ford. Latter includes some interesting background re: EMALS integration challenges and solutions.

• Electronics Design News (April 11/02) – Electronics poised to replace steam-powered aircraft launch. I like the references and linked diagrams.

• DID Spotlight – The US Navy’s Dual Band Radars

• Curtiss-Wright – Advanced Aircraft Arresting Gear. “The Advanced Arresting Gear (AAG) system incorporates turbo-electric power to capture tailhook-equipped aircraft landing on the deck of an aircraft carrier. This advanced technology will replace the current hydraulic arresting system…”

• Seapower Magazine (June 2003) – New Carrier Island Is At Heart Of Higher Sortie Rates For CVN 21

• National Defense Magazine (May 2003) – Navy Starts Work on Next Class of Carriers. Good overview of why many of the design changes were made, and how maladaptive some of the old approaches were – like putting new carriers to sea with obsolete electronics on day 1. Remember, however, that costs must be normalized to FY 2008 dollars.

• Seapower Magazine (June 2001) – Today’s Carrier Force — And Tomorrow’s: Being Transformed by “Leap-Ahead” Technology

The Carrier’s Future

• CNAS (March 2013) – At What Cost a Carrier? By Capt. Henry J. Hendrix, USN (Ph.D.)

• US DoD (May 3/10) – Navy League Sea-Air-Space Exposition: Remarks as Delivered by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Gaylord Convention Center, National Harbor, Maryland

• Information Dissemination (Aug 31/09) – Dropping the Carrier Requirement to 10, 9, and Potentially 8

• US Naval Institute Proceedings Magazine (April 2009) – Buy Fords not Ferraris

• Singapore MINDEF, Pointer Journal (V25, N1; March 1999) – Is the Super Carrier Going to be Obsolete? An interesting third-party look at the super-carrier and its alternatives. Singapore does not currently own a carrier of any description, and has no plans to do so.

• Popular Mechanics (October 1998) – 21st Century Carrier Force. Some of the ideas at first were a bit more radical. As it turned out, the Nimitz class would not mark the end of large carriers – nor would CVN-21 be a stealth ship, or non-nuclear.

FAB JAS-39E
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As Brazil started boosting its defense budgets in past years, its Navy and Army received funds to replace broken-down equipment, while new fighters will be a critical centerpiece of the Forca Aerea Brasileira’s (FAB) efforts.

Boeing’s F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, France’s Dassault’s Rafale, Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen NG were picked as finalists. But after repeated stalling, for years the question was whether Brazil would actually place an order, or fold up the competition like the ill-fated 2011 F-X process. At the end of 2013, Brazil unexpectedly picked the Swedish offer, thanks to its offsets, price, and lack of diplomatic baggage. An initial contract is now in place, and this Spotlight article takes you through the competition, choices, and ongoing developments in a country that seems likely to become the world’s largest Gripen fleet.

F-X2: The Competition Upgraded F-5EM
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The 36+ aircraft under consideration for F-X2 were mostly the same set of 4+ generation fighters that were considered for the canceled F-X competition: Boeing’s F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, Dassault’s Rafale, EADS’ Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Block 60, Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen NG, and Sukhoi’s SU-35.

The FAB was also said to be interested in the Lockheed-Martin F-35, but the finalized nature of the Lighting’s industrial production partnership program was likely to keep the program from delivering the industrial offsets Brazil seeks. Meanwhile, a pair of competitors from earlier rounds faded out. Dassault’s Mirage 2000 production line was closing, and Brazil did not mention the F-16 as a contender – or advance Lockheed Martin’s F-16BR Block 70 offer to the finals.

Reporter Tania Monteiro of the Brazilian newspaper O Estado de Sao Paulo writes that technology transfer will be an essential part of any deal, and quotes influential Workers’ Party Deputy (PT is Lula’s party, Deputy = MP or Congressman) Jose Genoino as saying:

“France is always the better partner. Concerning Russia, everyone knows the difficulties and we don’t know what is going to happen in ten years so that we will be able to guarantee our spare parts. The USA, traditionally, does not transfer technology… We want to seek the lowest price with the most technology transfer.”

That offers France an opportunity to get some export momentum and success behind its Rafale, which has lost every competition it has entered thus far (Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, UAE, et. al.). According to reports, the indications are that technology transfer will be more important than cost in terms of the final choice. Defence minister Nelson Jobim:

“Whatever the final contract it must be closely linked to national development, to help advance in the creation of a strong defense industry and therefore the technological edge we are requesting.”

In December 2013, Brazil came to the conclusion that Sweden’s JAS-39E/F Gripen was their best choice. A contract for 36 aircraft was signed in October 2014, and Brazil’s air force (FAB) has confirmed that their eventual goal is 108 fighters in 3 tranches. Another 24 aircraft could end up serving in Brazil’s navy, as carrier-borne fighters.

Analysis: F-X2 Competitors

The F-X2 finalists were Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen, France’s Rafale, and Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Beyond the air force, the Marinha do Brazil eventually intends to buy 24 fighters of its own, to operate from the carrier that replaces NAe Sao Paulo beginning in 2025. They watched the competition closely, and would prefer to buy the same aircraft.

Saab JAS-39 Gripen NG (Winner) Gripen features

Pros: The JAS-39 Gripen Next Generation program offered key industrial opportunities, along with a high-performance fighter whose price and operating costs are both low. Gripen is likely to be Brazil’s cheapest option over its service life; indeed, it could save its full contracted cost of acquisition and maintenance, relative to a Rafale offer that was reportedly twice as expensive.

Saab offers strong industrial partnerships, and has a record of successful technology transfer agreements. For starters, Brazilian industry would be involved in fighter design stage, not just construction. Beyond late-stage development of the JAS-39F, Brazil is the likely launch customer for a naval Sea Gripen, which could add considerable local design work under a future contract. On a very concrete level, the JAS-39BR’s avionics suite will be sourced entirely from Elbit’s Brazilian subsidiary AEL, giving it commonalities with the FAB’s other fighters.

A 2nd factor involves shared integration source codes, allowing Brazil’s growing arms industry to quickly add the weapons they’re developing for use by the FAB – or indeed, for any Gripen customer. Brazilian Gripens offered immediate integration with the cooperative A-Darter air-air missile that Brazil is developing with fellow Gripen customer South Africa, and deploying on its own modernized A-1M AMX fighters. Mectron’s MAR-1 anti-radiation missile is another example that will debut with Brazil’s Gripen NGs.

Grey Areas: The developmental nature of the JAS-39E/F, which won’t be ready before 2018, was both a plus and a minus for Saab. It’s a minus from the standpoint of technical and delivery risk, especially with the FAB expecting delivery by December 2018. On the other hand, as noted above, it’s a strength from an industrial perspective.

The plane’s radar offers the same kind of duality. The JAS-39 NG includes the Raven AESA radar developed with Selex Galileo, whose long history with Brazil’s FAB includes the F-5BR (Grifo-F) and AMX (Scipio) fighter programs. The Raven is an unusual combination of an AESA radar that can be mechanically pivoted, offering more points of failure, but widening the radar’s scanning cone versus other competitors. That’s a strong plus, but the Raven is less mature than the AESA radars equipping the Super Hornet and Rafale.

The last gray area was the twin-engine issue. The F414 engine that Gripen shares with the Super Hornet offers the advantage of well-tested performance and a long-term customer base. The bad news is that if it fails, you will lose that plane. Brazil combines vast over-water areas and even vaster wilderness areas to patrol, a combination that often translates into a focus on range and 2-engine safety. The other 2 Brazilian finalists were both 2-engine planes, but it’s worth noting that most of Brazil’s other fighters (A-29 Super Tucano, AMX, Mirage 2000) have just one engine.

Gripen NG Demo
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Weaknesses: Saab’s biggest handicap was the industrial and geopolitical weight of its rivals from France & the USA. As the competition unfolded, the NSA’s all-encompassing spying turned the USA’s strength into a weakness, destroying the Super Hornet’s prospects. That created some blowback for Saab as well, however, since their fighter relies on GE F414 engine. That means the Gripen NG partnership of Sweden, Switzerland, and Brazil will be forced to abide by American ITAR rules for export sales, and must live with the understanding that American sanctions could cripple their fighter fleets. Brazil already lives with this for its front-line F-5 fighters, and they decided they could live with it here, too.

Another handicap involves Gripen’s lack of a naval variant, or even a flying prototype of same, in a competition where both of its competitors are naval fighters, and the customer operates a carrier. Conversion of land-based aircraft for naval aviation is often unrealistic, but Sweden’s insistence on short take-off and landing performance from surfaces like highways gives Gripen a strong base to work from. Saab began serious work on a “Sea Gripen” in March 2011, and can offer Brazilian industry the unique opportunity to be involved in developing the modified aircraft in time for 2025. It’s still a weakness, but it’s a weakness with a hook that may have been attractive.

JAS-39BR industrial
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Offer: The JAS-39NG reportedly ranked 1st in the FAB’s technical trials, had strong support from Brazilian aerospace firms, and offered a complete package worth about $6 billion (about 10 billion Reals), of which $1.5 billion was for maintenance. Saab even began working with a number of Brazilian firms in advance of any contracts, discussing sub-contracting possibilities, and working to improve their industrial proficiency with key technologies like advanced composite materials. That finally paid off in a 36-plane order that secured the Griipen NG’s future.

 

Dassault’s Rafale F3R FAB Rafale-B concept
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Pros: The Rafale had a lot of advantages in this competition. It’s a twin-engine fighter with good range and ordnance capacity, advanced weapons and add-ons, and much better aerial performance than the F/A-18 Super Hornet. It can play the carrier-compatible card very well, since the NAe Sao Paulo was once FS Foch, and Brazil’s next carrier may well be a variant of DCNS’ PA2 design.

It also comes from a trusted supplier. France is seen as a good supplier who avoids political interference and makes good on technology transfers, and the FAb’s experience with the Mirage 2000 offers a common technological and training base. Brazil was already embarked upon a broad set of major defense projects with French firms, and President Lula’s administration clearly favored the Rafale as part of that relationship.

Dassault Rafale:
Takeoff at last?
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Grey Areas: The Rafale would have confined Brazil to French weapons and sensors, unless Brazil spent its own money to add some locally-developed ordnance. On the other hand, Brazil has bought multiple versions of French Mirage aircraft during the FAB’s history, and seems unfazed by that requirement. Offers to partner in expanding the Rafale’s options might serve to hit 2 targets at once, by allaying concerns and playing the tech transfer card more strongly.

The Rafale’s January 2012 pick as India’s preferred fighter softened the type’s biggest negative, but India hadn’t signed a contract yet, and still hadn’t by the time Brazil signed its Gripen deal in October 2014. The Rafale was the only plane in this competition without an existing export customer, and it has lost a lot of international competitions.

Finally, Thales new RBE2-AA AESA radar was a bit of a greay area. It has been installed in French Air Force fighters, so it’s mature by the barest of margins. Unlike the Super Hornet’s APG-79, however, it hadn’t been used much in operations, and had no combat record.

Weaknesses: The Rafale’s biggest performance weakness is its lack of a Helmet Mounted Display, which keeps it from reaching its full potential in close-range air combat. Its biggest contest weakness was its price.

Offer: Subsequent events would bear out both the Rafale’s strengths, and its weaknesses. Folha de Sao Paolo reports that it was the most expensive of the 3 finalists, with a price tag of about $8.2 billion US dollars (13.3 billion Reals), plus $4 billion in maintenance contracts over the next 30 years. Dassault reportedly offered the best technology transfer package, and Defence Minister Jobim claims a subsequent $2 billion price reduction, but details remain unclear. The plane remained a strong contender, but a deteriorating economy and a binary choice involving Saab’s Gripen created the perfect storm that crashed the Rafale’s chances.

F/A-18E/F Super Hornet F/A-18E, Parked
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Pros: The carrier-compatible Super Hornet’s biggest advantage was a huge user base and wide array of ordnance, with guaranteed future funding for upgrades that Brazil won’t have to invest in. The Advanced Super Hornet, with conformal tanks, internal IRST, and improved electronics, is an early example of that dynamic at work. The Block II’s combat-proven AN/APG-79 AESA radar offers Brazil an attractive technology, volume production lets Boeing start at a price that’s comparable to the single-engine JAS-39’s, a weaker American dollar makes American exports even more affordable, and the potential to turn these planes into EA-18 electronic jamming fighters is a unique selling point for the type.

On the industrial front, Boeing’s passenger aircraft division gives them an attractive magnet for industrial offsets, and in April and June 2012, Boeing strengthened its position by signing a broad cooperation deal with Embraer. Their offering will use wide-screen displays and some other avionics from Elbit’s Brazilian subsidiary AEL.

Grey Areas: The Super Hornet is an American jet, and the vast majority of its equipment and weapons are also American. The USA’s influence in Latin America can help their lobbying, but their image in Latin America can hurt them at the same time. It was always true that a great deal would depend on what kind of relationship Brazil has with Washington around the time the decision is made, and where Brazil wanted that relationship to go. That dynamic began as a positive inducement to buy from Boeing, but ultimately became a fatal weakness.

Concerns about America’s propensity to use arms export bans as a political lever adds another complication to the Super Hornet’s odds, and take away some of the advantage created by its broad arsenal of American weapons and sensors. Sen. McCain reportedly pledged to get a Congressional commitment that the US Congress would not block the sale or transfer of technologies, but that cannot be binding, which left the issue of future spare parts interference etc. as an open question.

A related grey area for the Super Hornet is technology transfer and customization. Exactly how much technology Boeing and the US government were willing to transfer wasn’t clear, though they promised that their offer was competitive. Source code transfer is a related point, and it affects the ease with which Brazil will be able to add its own equipment if the Super Hornet is chosen. Traditionally, the USA doesn’t offer that.

F/A-18E International
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Weaknesses: The Super Hornet offers poorer aerodynamic performance than other competitors, falling behind in areas like maneuverability, acceleration, sustained Gs, etc.

What really hammered the Super Hornet, however, was the public revelation that the American NSA had been spying on Brazil’s government and Presidential Office. A 2013 negotiation that was supposedly tipping toward the Super Hornet died, and almost took the entire F-X2 competition with it. Instead, the Super Hornet was the only casualty, creating a binary decision between Saab and Dassault.

Offer: After being the long-shot finalist for most of this competition, heavy lobbying by the US government and Boeing put the Super Hornet back in the running – for a while. Folha de Sao Paolo reports that Boeing’s package was worth $7.7 billion dollars (about 12.9 billion reals), of which $1.9 billion was for maintenance. Rousseff reportedly pressed Boeing to improve its industrial participation offer, and Boeing’s subsequent deals with Embraer were significant. The firm just couldn’t fight its competitors and its own government at the same time.

Non-finalists RAF Typhoon & ASRAAM
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Eurofighter Typhoon (EADS/European): Technology transfer may have been an issue, but price was always the biggest stumbling block. Eurofighters consistently sell for $110-130+ million, which doesn’t fit a goal of $2.2 billion for 36 planes. The most capable air-air choice in the group would provide unquestioned regional air superiority, but ground surveillance and strike performance was still provisional (Tranche 1 v6), or unproven (Tranche 2+). This has been fatal in competitions like Singapore’s, and may have been a handicap here.

On the plus side, EADS Airbus offered a potent option for industrial offsets, and other EADS subsidiaries had footholds of their own. EADS Eurocopter’s Cougar had just become the medium-lift mainstay of Brazil’s future helicopter fleet, for instance. It wasn’t enough.

X-35B STOVL
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F-35 Lightning II/ F-16BR (Lockheed Martin) The F-35 would have offered a clear set of performance benefits over competing aircraft. No aircraft in this group could have matched the Lightning’s advanced surveillance capabilities, and surveillance is a big need in Brazil. The F-35B STOVL variant also offered Brazil the ability to operate from small, dispersed runways, and it would have been perfect for aircraft carriers like the Sao Paulo. Unfortunately, technology transfer issues weren’t the F-35’s only problem. Other barriers to an F-35 win included limited opportunities in its industrial structure, questions surrounding air superiority performance, the low likelihood of deliveries before 2016 (a concern that was more than vindicated by events), a single engine design – and the potential cancellation of the F-35B variant, which would be most useful to Brazil.

Instead, Lockheed Martin offered Brazil an F-16BR. It was expected to resemble the F-16E/F “Block 70″ variant offered to India, with an AESA radar and built-in IRST/targeting sensors, an uprated engine, etc. Both India and Brazil are fond of Israeli avionics and weapons, and Lockheed Martin also has a long history of including those items for Israel and for other customers.

The F-16BR offer shared many of the Super Hornet’s perceived benefits and drawbacks: AESA radar and sensors, a weaker American dollar, and wide compatibility with other regional and global air forceson the plus side. On the minus side, it offers poorer aerodynamic performance, distrust of America is a barrier, the F-16 cannot play the carrier-compatible card like the Super Hornet, and it offers only a single-engine design.

SU-35
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SU-35 (Sukhoi/ Rosoboronexport) This was the aircraft Russia offered in Brazil’s initial F-X competition, and the design has matured into a production aircraft since then. Russian tech transfer is trusted. Lack of political interference is trusted absolutely. The aircraft itself would offer an option that’s better than Venezuela’s SU-30MKs, while still presenting itself to the region as an equivalency move. The price would be good. Unsurprisingly, Sukhoi had some support in the FAB.

On the other hand, service and parts delivery were almost guaranteed to be bad. That gave the FAB real pause. One way around that might be to offer licensed local production. In order to solve the Russian service problem[1], that production would also have to extend to the aircraft’s NPO Saturn engines and fitted avionics. That’s a tall but achievable order, but in the end, it didn’t matter. The SU-35S wasn’t a finalist. Sukhoi reportedly made an unsolicited offer anyway, but it didn’t go anywhere.

Contracts and Key Events 2014-2015

Preliminary agreements followed by a contract for 36; Final FAB goal is 108; Lease discussions for 10 planes; Argentina may want 24, but Britain blocks that. Gripen NG

August 13/15: The Brazilian Air Force has outlined what weapons it plans to procure to equip its new fleet of 36 Gripen E/F fighters, following the approval of a Swedish loan earlier this month for both the aircraft and weapons. The $4.6 billion deal will see the first Gripens delivered in 2019, with weapons including the A-Darter short-range air-to-air missile, the IRIS-T short-range air-to-air missile, SPICE bomb kits and targeting pods built by Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd.

August 10/15: Brazil’s Federal Senate has approved [Portugese] the renegotiated financing deal agreed with Sweden in late July, authorising a loan of $4.6 billion from Sweden’s Export Credit Corporation. The funds will facilitate the procurement of 36 Gripen E/F fighters from Saab, the winner of Brazil’s FX-2 competition, which beat out rival bids from Boeing and Dassault. Brazilian prosecutors opened a probe into the competition’s award in April, citing apparent discrepancies between Saab’s bid price and subsequent negotiations.

April 14/15: Brazilian prosecutors will investigate the country’s $5.4 billion Gripen deal. The probe is reportedly focused on a $900 million disparity between Saab’s 2009 bid price and the final contract value. Saab beat out competitors Boeing and Dassault in the FX-2 competition, which should see the initial batch of 36 fighters delivered in 2018.

Nov 18/14: 108. Flightglobal quotes “a leading Brazilian air force figure” who confirms that the FAB’s stated requirement from their 2007 feasibility study is 108 JAS-39E/F fighters, to be bought in 3 tranches – presumably, 36 planes per tranche.

The initial F-X2 order for 36 will reportedly see 15 jets (likely all 8 JAS-39Fs, and 7 JAS-39Es) assembled in Brazil. The next 2 tranches after this one will feature even more Brazilian involvement, and would replace Brazil’s newly-upgraded F-5M/FM and AMX-1M fighters. Meanwhile, weapon integration plans are underway. Their source confirmed that the jointly-developed A-Darter short range air-to-air missile is about to receive its final qualification, clearing it for immediate use on Brazil’s JAS-39C/D interim force in 2016 (q.v. March 3/14) as well as its JAS-39E/Fs. Mectron’s MAR-1 radar-killer missile will also be integrated on Brazil’s JAS-39E/Fs when they enter service in 2019.

What hasn’t been finalized yet is the model mix between JAS-39Es and the 2-seat JAS-39Fs over all 3 tranches. It’s interesting to hear that they’re talking to the US Navy about this, but the USN is a very accessible partner who has the same issue in their F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fleet. The South African Air Force has also been chatted up on the topic, though they probably aren’t a great example. Sources: Flightglobal, “Brazilian air force confirms Gripen acquisition numbers”.

Nov 9/14: Argentina. Argentina may want to do a deal with Brazil (q.v. Oct 22/14), but Britain has now publicly said “no.” To be more precise, they reiterate the continued existence of a ban. A spokesperson for the UK Department of Business, Innovation and Skills:

“We are determined to ensure that no British-licensable exports or trade have the potential to be used by Argentina to impose an economic blockade on the Falkland Islanders or inhibit their legitimate rights to develop their own economy…”

About 30% of the JAS-39E/F will be British, from the ejection seats to the radar, landing gear, and a number of electronic systems. Embraer could try to downgrade and substitute, but Argentina lacks the money to finance such an ambitious effort. Now add the fact that a newly-Republican US Senate and House would block export’s of GE’s F414 engines. As knowledgeable observers expected, Argentina will have to look elsewhere. C4ISR & Networks, “Argentina Buying Gripens? Brits Say ‘No Way'”.

Oct 24/14: Brazil. Saab signs a SEK 39.3 billion / BRL 13.363 billion / $5.475 billion contract with Brazil’s COMAER for 28 JAS-39E and 8 JAS-39F fighters, alongside provisions for training, initial spares, and a 10-year Industrial Co-operation contract to transfer technologies to Brazilian industry. Embraer will have a leading role as Saab’s strategic partner, with a JAS-39F co-development role and full responsibility for production.

This contract winds up having wider implications as well, by securing Sweden’s order for 60 JAS-39Es. As signed, it required at least 1 other customer, which was going to be Switzerland until a weak effort from that government destroyed the deal in a referendum. Brazil has now become that additional customer, and Saab expects that this commitment will keep the JAS-39 in service to 2050.

What’s left? Brazil’s FAB confirms that the interim lease agreement for 10-12 JAS-39C/Ds will be a separate deal with the Swedish government. Meanwhile, the JAS-39NG contracts still require certain conditions before they become final, such as required export control-related authorizations from the USA et. al. All of these conditions are expected to be fulfilled during the first half of 2015, with deliveries to take place from 2019 – 2024. Sources: Saab, “Saab and Brazil sign contract for Gripen NG” | Brazil FAB, “Brasil assina contrato para aquisicao de 36 cacas Gripen NG”.

Contract for 36 Gripen NG

Oct 22/14: Gripen NG. During the Embraer KC-390 medium jet transport’s rollout, Argentina and Brazil sign a formal “Alianca Estrategica em Industria Aeronautica.” Argentina is already making parts for the KC-390, and they need a larger partner for a number of other reasons. The FAB’s releases add that Argentina is also thinking of buying JAS-39E/F Gripens from Embraer, whose Brazilian factory will assemble at least 36 of the advanced Swedish fighters under the pending F-X2 program:

“El Gobierno nacional decidio iniciar una negociacion con la administracion de Dilma Rousseff para la adquisicion de 24 aviones Saab Gripen dentro del programa denominado FX 2…”

Regional export rights are also expected to be part of the deal. That could get interesting, because the Gripen has systems from the USA and Britain in it. You might be able to replace electronics, but it’s expensive – and ejection seats and engines are a lot tougher. Sources: FAB NOTIMP, “Argentina quiere comprar 24 cazas supersonicos”.

July 11/14: Industrial. There’s no agreement yet for the Gripen lease, but Saab and Embraer have signed the expected Memorandum of Understanding around JAS-39E/F production. Embraer will be the Brazilian industrial lead, performing its own assigned work while managing all local sub-contractors in the program. They’ll also work with Saab on systems development, integration, flight tests, final assembly and deliveries, with full joint responsibility for the 2-seat JAS-39F Gripen NG. Sources: Embraer and Saab, “Embraer to partner with Saab in joint programme management for Brazil´s F-X2 Project”.

March 3/14: Gripen lease. Brazil will lease 10 JAS-39C/D Gripens as interim fighters from 2016 – 2018, with the 1st batch of 6 arriving in time to fly over the Rio Olympics. The agreement also includes training, and a pair of Brazilian pilots will begins conversion training in May 2015. The JAS-39E/F fighters that follow will have some important differences, but they’ll also have many important similarities, so the lease will serve double duty as an early familiarization period.

The contract is still being negotiated, but the basic premise is that Sweden will loan the fighters, and Brazil will pay operating costs. Defining what that means will still be a bit of work, of course. Does that cover depreciation during flying hours? What maintenance is required? What happens if things break? Et cetera. They’re hoping for a full agreement by May 2014. Spurces: Politica, “Brasil e Suecia discutem emprestimo de cacas Gripen”.

March 3/14: Agreements. Brazil and Saab sign advance agreements on defense cooperation, which lay the foundation for the future Gripen contract. This includes a defense cooperation framework agreement, whose scope is already wider than just fighters, and a corollary agreement that commits to appropriate levels of secrecy and security procedures within that cooperation framework. The new agreements build on documents signed in 1997 and 2000, and both will be forwarded to Brazil’s National Congress for approval.

The industrial goal is to be able to produce 80% of the plane in Brazil, which has future implications given that final Brazilian orders over time are estimated at 60 – 104 fighters. Equally significant, the accompanying security agreements include access to the Gripen’s source code. That will allow Brazil to add its own weapons to the new fighters, increasing the global attractiveness of both Saab’s Gripens and of Brazil’s weapons. A current wave of Latin American upgrades could create timing issues for wider regional sales, but export partnership arrangements are under discussion, and currently revolve around Latin America and developing nations with close Brazilian ties (“das nacoes em desenvolvimento com as quais o Brasil possui estreita relacao bilateral”). Sources: Brazil FAB, “Brasil assina acordos de cooperacao e da prosseguimento a compra dos cacas suecos” | See also Defense News, “Fleet Modernization Drives Requirements Across South America”.

Framework and Confidentiality agreements

February 2014: Interview. Saab CEO is interviewed by Brazil’s Veja, and offers some thoughts regarding F-X2. It provides some behind the scenes clarity, but all words are chosen as carefully as one would expect for a process that Bushke himself admits is highly political. The questions are more interesting in some ways, focusing on Brazil’s educational deficit and implicitly asking about corruption. Bushke flatly says that there were never any improper solicitations, and reminds the interviewer that Brazil’s Embraer was good enough to push Saab out of the civil aircraft market. He does say that Lula’s initial Rafale preference was a shock:

“Saab executives and employees felt that the announcement by Brazil’s former president came like a bolt of lightning out of a clear blue sky. It was totally unexpected, given their strong relationship with the Brazilian military staff responsible for making the decision.”

His answer explains its own implicit question: they weren’t the ones making the decision. Finally, Hakan finds that being from Sweden is useful for at least one purpose: being able to slip inside your opponents’ premises when you’re asked to justify military spending. Sources: Veja Magazine, translated by Saab, “Sweden is a model: Interview with Hakan Bushke, CEO of Saab”.

Feb 4/14: JAS-39F. IHS Janes reports that Brazil wants both single-seat and two-seat variants, unlike Sweden or Switzerland:

“Saab has confirmed to IHS Jane’s that Brazil’s aerospace industry will be given the opportunity to develop a two-seater version of the Gripen NG as part of the USD4.5 million consignment of 36 fighter aircraft…. Out of the 36 fighter jets under the FAB F-X2 programme, eight of the aircraft will be twin-seat Gripen Fs and the rest [DID: 28] will be in the single-seat Gripen Es.”

That would increase Brazil’s workshare, and give them a solid design role, but it also increases costs. Negotiations will be interesting. The other question involves weapons. The JAS-39D eliminates the 27mm cannon found in the JAS-39C, and it remains to be seen whether the JAS-39F will follow the same pattern. Sources: IHS Jane’s 360, “Saab confirms twin-seat Gripen F development for Brazil”.

2013

NSA spying sinks US chances, costs sink Rafale, Gripen wins!; Gripen would use AEL avionics suite; Sukhoi’s unsolicited offer; Boeing deepens Embraer ties. Sea Gripen Concept
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Dec 18/13: Tack sa mycket, Herr Snowden! Earlier press reports that the competition was stalled for another 2 years are proven wrong by a somewhat unexpected announcement from the Ministerio da Defesa: Brazil has picked Saab’s Gripen-NG as their preferred bidder, and expects to buy 36 planes for $4.5 billion. That’s currently just an estimate, as negotiations need to sort themselves out. A final contract and financial arrangements are expected in December 2014, and deliveries are expected to begin 4 years later. That’s a challenge for Saab, as any schedule slippage in the JAS-39E/F development program would create a late delivery. Late fees can be expected to be a negotiating point, and Brazil’s MdD says that leasing JAS-39C/D Gripens as an interim force may be addressed as a separate contract.

The Gripen NG contract figure tracks exactly with previous reports by Folha de Sao Paolo, which means an additional $1.5 billion contract can be expected for long-term maintenance and support. Saab was the cheapest of the reported offers, beating Boeing ($5.8 billion) and Dassault ($8.2 billion, reportedly reduced) by significant margins. Once Edward Snowden’s revelations of NSA spying on Brazil’s government killed Boeing’s chances, there was no middle ground. The Rafale’s reported $10.2 billion purchase + maintenance total made it 70% more expensive than Saab’s Gripen. Brazil’s economic slowdown, and the Rousseff government’s focus on entitlement spending, made that cost chasm a big factor.

It wasn’t the only factor. The Gripen has Ministry statements indicate that industry’s long-standing preference for Saab’s industrial terms played a role, as Gripen-NG offers the prospect of participating in a new fighter’s design. So, too, did the unique prospect of full access to weapon integration source code, which the Ministry cited in its Q&A. That will allow Brazil to leverage its revived arms industry, and easily add weapons like Mectron’s MAR-1 radar-killer missile. Throw in the option to participate in the future design of a carrier-based Sea Gripen variant to replace ancient A-4 Skyhawks on Brazil’s carrier, and Saab’s industrial combination overcame the Gripen’s reliance on an American engine and other equipment.

The Brazilian Air Force has a dedicated website to explain its choice. Dassault issued a terse statement pointing out the presence of US parts on Gripens, and positioning the Rafale in a different league. Which may or may not be true, but it’s indisputably true that global fighter buys have historically been heavily weighted toward a less-expensive league. Gripen is within that low to mid price range, and Rafale isn’t. Sources: Brazil MdD, “FX-2: Amorim anuncia vencedor de programa para compra de novos cacas” | MdD, “Perguntas & Respostas sobre a definição do Programa F-X2″ (Q&A) | Dassault, “FX2 contest – 2013/12/18″ | Defense Aerospace, “Brazil’s Gamble on Gripen Offsets” Folha de Sao Paulo, “Dilma agradece Hollande por apoio contra espionagem dos EUA”.

Brazil picks Gripen

Sept 26/13: Airpower Brazil (Poder Aero) magazine cites Presidential aides to report that President Dilma Rousseff is about to “defer” the F-X2 decision to 2015, after next year’s general election. Negotiations had reportedly almost resulted in a deal for 36 of Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, but NSA spying on the Presidential Office, which Rousseff decried in the UN, is cited as the motivating force behind this reversal. The decision would be a two-stage problem for Boeing. It’s a problem because the bad feelings may not die down, which hurts their political position. It’s also an industrial problem, because all Super Hornet family production is due to end by mid-2016. Australia’s interest in buying 12 EA-18Gs will probably stretch that to late 2016, but a number of key suppliers will end production much earlier without further export wins, and restarts add costs.

Brazil could have simply picked another contender, but Poder Aero’s report says that technology transfer issues around the Scorpene submarine, and problems transferring production to India, have hurt the Rafale’s chances. Frankly, that doesn’t make a lot of sense. The statements regarding the PROSUB program are difficult to verify, but there are counter-examples likes like the EC725 helicopter project that have gone quite well. As for India’s M-MRCA competition, that’s a poor model. Brazil’s aerospace production capabilities are far more advanced than HAL’s, and many of India’s negotiating problems are self-inflicted policy wounds – like wanting to place financial penalties on Dassault for delays, while giving Dassault no management authority with key suppliers. It all depends on what Rousseff’s briefings are telling her.

As for Saab’s JAS-39E/F Gripen, it’s a legitimate candidate, but Brazil reportedly sees its developmental nature as more of a problem than an opportunity.

With all that said, the real question here may no longer revolve around fighters. It’s whether F-X2 is dead. Brazil is hosting the Olympics in 2016, which will create multiple kinds of interference, and excuses for further delay. Slowdowns in China and elsewhere have to send shivers through a commodity economy like Brazil’s, and it has other defense priorities like naval ships that will require budget space. This in a context of massive social protests against corruption, poor public services, and crumbling infrastructure. Given those kinds of headwinds, one might well ask why a political system that has been unable to buy new fighters for over a decade, and has introduced delay after delay for the last 3 years, will suddenly turn that around in 2015. Source: Poder Aero / Valor Econômico, “Governo deve adiar decisao sobre caças da FAB para 2015″.

Aug 12/13: Brazil – NSA fallout. Reuters reports that revelations of NSA spying may have damaged the Boeing Super Hornet’s chances in Brazil. US Secretary of State John Kerry’s October meeting with Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff won’t discuss the deal, and the unnamed political source was blunt: “We cannot talk about the fighters now… You cannot give such a contract to a country that you do not trust.”

In July, the O Globo newspaper published documents leaked by Edward Snowden that revealed U.S. surveillance of Internet communications in Brazil and other Latin American countries. Nobody who has been paying attention can possibly be surprised, given concerns regarding transnational drug cartels, Brazil’s close relationship with Iran, and the growth of Islamist activities in the “triple border” junction area of Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. Brazilian senators may not have been paying attention, or may just have been playing their expected role when they questioned President Rousseff’s visit to Washington in toto.

Brazil could just go ahead and pick another plane, but fighters seem to be dropping down the government’s priority list. Huge protests against corruption and misuse of public money have left the government skittish about big outlays, and another government source tells Reuters that they no longer expect a decision in 2013. With 2014 as an election year, that means 2015 for any fighter decision. The Brazilian government isn’t exactly responding with denials following the Reuters report, and for Boeing, later is better than sooner. Reuters, “Spying scandal sets back U.S. chances for fighter jet sale to Brazil”.

Oooops.

Aug 5/13: Tchau, Mirage. Brazil will retire the FAB’s 12-plane Mirage 2000B/C fleet in December, without a replacement. The people in Brazilia’s glass Supreme Court building will be relieved.

There are conflicting reports as to why they’re being retired. Some cite the Dassault support agreement, which was extended for another 2 years from 2011 – 2013, but ran up against manufacturer recommended service life limits. The cost of the in-depth overhauls would far exceed the $80 million Brazil paid for the used jets, and if Brazil wanted to add modern weapons to keep the planes competitive, the radar and electronics would also need replacement.

Finally, in a tight budget environment, it’s worth noting that other customers have complained about high maintenance costs for this type. Taiwan, for instance, is planning to retire more advanced Mirage 2000-5s by 2020, instead of upgrading or swapping their jets to the 2000-9 configuration. This is so even as they upgrade less advanced F-16A/Bs, and worry about a growing cross-strait imbalance in front-line fighters.

Brazil’s 2005 purchase of the used French fighters didn’t include resale rights, so the fighters will return to France. Due to their age, however, they won’t be resold again. Brazilian reports cite a likely “replacement” of 6-12 F-5Ms at the Anapolis AB near Brazilia, but those are refurbished fighters that were already in FAB stocks. Only F-X2 fighters will act as replacements, if indeed the FAB buys any. Estado de S. Paulo [in Portuguese] | Defense Update.

Mirage 2000s to retire

July 6/13: Delays. Brazil won’t be making their F-X2 decision until the end of the year. They have, of course, asked the contenders to extend their bids yet again. Brazil Defence [unofficial].

June 18/13: Boeing & Embraer. Embraer and Boeing sign an agreement to market Embraer’s KC-390 medium airlifter in limited international venues, building on the June 26/12 MoU. Boeing will be the lead for KC-390 sales, sustainment and training opportunities in the USA, UK and “select Middle East markets.”

Outside the Middle East, that doesn’t actually encompass a lot of meaningful opportunities, but it’s one more factor bolstering Boeing’s F-X-2 bid. Boeing | Embraer.

May 20/13: SU-35, unsolicited. RIA Novosti quotes Rosoboronexport’s SITDEF exhibition lead Sergey Ladigin, who says they’ve offered to deliver Su-35 fighters and Pantsir S1 air defense systems to Brazil outside the framework of a tender, and says the offer is being considered.

Brazil wants the Pantsir short-range air defense gun/missile systems, but the SU-35 failed to make the shortlist in 2009. On the other hand, if you don’t ask, you’ll never get. So Russia’s is throwing in the Su-35 offer, and Ladigin said in Lima that they were “ready to transfer 100% of manufacturing technologies,” as well as some technologies from their T50 (future SU-50?) stealth fighter. Russian Aviation.

MdB test pilot

May 15/13: Sea Gripen. Saab remains serious about its “Sea Gripen NG,” and has been working on the idea since their May 2011 announcement. Brazil’s Navy is expected to buy its own fighters to equip a new aircraft carrier, which is expected to replace NAe Sao Paulo around 2025. They expect their 24 new fighters to be the same type as the FAB’s F-X-2 winner, which leaves Saab competing against 2 proven naval fighters: Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornets and Dassault’s Rafale-M.

To help build their case, former Brazilian naval aviator Comte. Romulo “Leftover” Sobral is invited to flight test a JAS-39D, in order to verify the design’s basic suitability for naval conversion. Sobral liked the aircraft’s intuitive flight controls, ground handling, stability at low airspeeds, acceleration response, handling at the high angles of attack used in carrier landings, and good visibility. He even liked the flight suit. The plane landed in 800m, and Comte Sobral believes that the plane does have the basic requirements to become an effective naval fighter. The Sea Gripen’s lack of proven status, and absence of even a flying prototype, will still hurt the JAs-39. On the other hand, the time lag from F-X2 to a naval buy gives Brazilian industry a unique opportunity to participate in designing the Sea Gripen. Saab Gripen Blog | Full article at Defesa Aerea & Naval [in Portuguese].

April 15/13: Rafale. Defense World reports from LAAD 2013 that Dassault’s F-X2 offer will be the Rafale F3R, which includes a major software upgrade that allows the aircraft to take fuller advantage of the new Thales RBE2-AA AESA radar, improves their Thales SPECTRA self-defence systems, adds Mode-5/Mode-S capable Identification Friend or Foe, and allows the Rafale to deploy MBDA’s Meteor long range air-to-air missile.

Given Brazil’s insistence on an AESA radar, Dassault could hardly avoid offering the F3R.

April 10/13: Gripen. Saab executive Eddy de la Motta is quoted as saying that Brazilian JAS-39 Gripen NGs would use AEL’s avionics, creating a forked version under the wider development effort. This will help Saab meet industrial offset obligations, and also create commonality for Brazil’s fighter fleet, but integrating all of those components with the plane’s mission computers, OFP core software, weapons, etc. is not a trivial task. Elbit subsidiary AEL’s avionics are used in many Brazilian aircraft, with the exception of the Mirage 2000s that will retire as F-X2 fighters enter the FAB.

A less comprehensive suite of AEL avionics will also be used in Boeing’s F/A-18 International, which offers AEL’s wide-screen display and some other components to all potential customers. Defense News.

April 3/13: Embraer. Embraer’s CEO Luiz Carlos Aguiar talks to Defense News about F-X2 and other subjects. Regarding the fighters:

“I think [the decision is] going to be in the next months, this year, I would say. Our role in that depends… on who is going to win. We have a memorandum of understanding with all three of the contenders. Each of them offers an offset program, but we prefer not declaring publicly our preference…. Whatever they choose, we’re going to be in the process. They need to make this decision because Brazil needs that…. With the F-X, we can even go further in terms of technology, and even some new products could come up with one of these three contenders. That’s what I can tell you, I can’t go further than that.”

Given Embraer’s dominant position in the Brazilian aerospace industry, it would be shocking if any of the contenders had chosen not to sign industrial partnership MoUs with Embraer. In light of the April and August 2012 agreements, the “new products” comment suggests that Boeing may have replaced Saab (q.v. Sept 28-29/09 entries) as Embraer’s preferred choice. That isn’t at all certain, however – as Aguliar surely intended. Defense News.

March 8/13: More delays. Brazil has asked the 3 F-X2 finalists to extend their bids for another 6 months from the March 30/13 deadline, as the Brazilian commodity economy remains mired in a 2-year slump. Boeing, Dassault, and Saab has hoped for a decision in time for Brazil’s April 2013 LAAD defense expo.

The length of the cumulative delays could create changes for the bids, and it effectively squashes any faint hopes that the new jets would be able to fly in time for the 2014 World Cup. Given required production and training times, those hopes started to become awfully faint by around mid-2012. Reuters.

2012

Rafale wins in India; Boeing trying hard. Rafale
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Dec 11/12: Still no deadline. In a joint press conference with French President Hollande, Brazil’s President Rousseff remains very non-committal regarding F-X2. On the one hand, the timing will depend on Brazil’s economy, which is commodity based and so subject to the effects of global slowdowns. On the other hand, she says that the government expects enough growth in the coming months to resume the selection process. French President [in French] | YouTube press conference video | Les Echos [in French].

Dec 7/12: Super Hornet. The Brazilian news weekly Istoe publishes an article claiming that the FAB’s formal analysis had preferred Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. The report was shelved by the government, which favored France’s Rafale. The air force’s preference is reportedly due in part to the fact that the Super Hornet has the widest variety of integrated weapons and equipment, and partly because it’s available immediately and could be delivered very quickly. The FAB is reported to be concerned about both the age of its fleet, and its regional competitiveness.

The Super Hornet’s cost was in the middle, at $5.4 billion rather than the Gripen’s $4.3 billion, or Rafale’s $8.2 billion. So, too, were estimated operating costs, at about $10,000 per flight hour vs. $7,000 for Gripen, or $20,000 for the Rafale.

The government’s thinking is still opaque, though Boeing’s technical cooperation agreements with Embraer (vid. April 3-9/12 and June 26/12 entries) add a bit more weight to the industrial side of the equation. Istoe [in Portuguese, and note that their picture is an F-15] | Defense World.

Aug 9/12: Delayed, again. Brazil may need a 5th consecutive extension. Defence Minister Celso Amorim tells Dow Jones that:

“The project is not being abandoned. There will be a decision in the right time. But, today, I would prefer not to give a date… The economic situation has taken a less favorable turn than expected and it naturally requires caution.”

With China’s economy appearing to slow, and the EU debt crisis as an ongoing drag on their economy, a commodity-based economy like Brazil could find itself in tight straits for a while unless something changes. Fox News.

July 7/12: Extension. The FAB has asked the 3 bidders to renew their fighter offers. It’s the 4th consecutive 6-month extension, while Brazil dithers over its choice and the timing of the buy. France24.

June 26/12: Boeing & Embraer. Boeing and Embraer announce an agreement to share some specific technical knowledge regarding the KC-390, and to evaluate markets where they may join their sales efforts for medium-lift military transports. It’s part of a broader agreement signed in April 2012 (vid.), and its immediate significance is limited.

On the other hand, it has the potential to turn Boeing into a medium transport rival to C-130 maker Lockheed Martin, while extending Embraer’s marketing reach to match Lockheed Martin and Airbus. That’s the sort of thing that could change the KC-390’s global prospects, but it’s still too early to tell. Boeing | Embraer.

June 14/12: Boeing & AEL. Boeing picks Elbit Systems and its AEL Sistemas subsidiary to provide a low-profile head-up display (LPHUD), as part of the Advanced Cockpit System for Boeing fighter jets. This follows the March 5/12 pick to supply the ACS’ Large Area Display (LAD) offered as an option for new F/A-18 Super Hornets and F-15s, including the F-15SE Silent Eagle. Boeing.

May 19/12: 2012 decision? Mercopress reports that Rousseff’s government intends to make its F-X2 decision by the end of 2012. That’s a good way to reduce those tiring lobbying meetings.

April 3-9/12: Boeing & Embraer. Boeing announces its new Sao Paulo facility, Boeing Research & Technology-Brazil. It is the firm’s 6th global advanced research center, after Europe, Australia, India, China and Russia. Areas of research focus for the new center will include sustainable aviation biofuels (Brazil is a leading biofuel producer), advanced air traffic management, advanced metals and bio-materials, and support and services technologies.

That announcement is followed by a broad business agreement with Embraer to cooperate in these areas, as well as in commercial aircraft. The broader announcement by Embraer and Boeing was made on the same day as the signing by the Brazilian and United States Governments of a Memorandum of Understanding on the Aviation Partnership, to expand and deepen cooperation between the 2 countries on civil aviation. Boeing re: facility | Boeing re: cooperation.

March 5/12: Boeing & AEL. Boeing Company and Elbit Systems announce a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to cooperate in Brazil. As part of the MoU, Elbit has committed to investing in its AEL Sistemas S.A. subsidiary. Elbit’s 11″ x 19″ Large Area Display has already been picked for next-generation F/A-18 Super Hornet and F-15 Eagle variants & upgrades, and the implication is that AEL would help develop and integrate this capability in any Brazilian F/A-18 Super Hornets.

Per Elbit’s investments, AEL will participate in LAD software & hardware development, and establish an Advanced Cockpit Technology Center of Excellence in Brazil. They’re already the Brazilian military’s top avionics supplier, and the firm hopes to expand its cockpit avionics market reach to other fixed-wing and helicopter platforms. Boeing.

Feb 10/12: Reuters reports that Boeing has frozen its 2009 bid price, as the same price for any new tender. In effect, it’s a price reduction of the cost of inflation over that time; the Reuters article offers estimates of a 12% real discount.

Jan 31/12: Rafale in India. Dassault’s Rafale is picked as India’s preferred plane for its 126+ plane M-MRCA fighter contract. A subsequent article in India’s newspaper The Hindu, by Brazilian Prof. Oliver Stuenkel, notes that Brazilian defense minister Amorim’s recent trip to India, immediately after the Rafale had been picked, included an agreement “to share with Brazil some of its experiences of carrying out the open tender evaluation to select the best aircraft… The big question now is how the decision to have Brazil study documents about India’s selection process will affect the tender process in Brazil.”

2012

F-X2 put in limbo, but maneuvering continues; Minister Jobim resigns; Sea Gripen started. Training for what?
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Dec 21/11: Boeing announces Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with MSM Powertrain Ltda. (logistics services, ground support equipment, engineering support) and Pan Metal Industria Metalurgica Ltda. (assembly, subsystem installation, machined parts, processing, heat treatment) to explore work opportunities with Boeing and its industry partners if Boeing wins F-X2. MSM and Pan Metal join more than 25 other companies throughout Brazil that Boeing and its industry partners have already identified.

Sept 30/11: Brazil’s new Defense Minister Celso Amorim says that:

“By the end of 2013, none of the 12 Mirage (aircraft) at the Anapolis air base will be in full flying condition. This [fighter buy] is something that is really urgent, very important… The need to defend the Amazon, the borders – We need to have adequate combat aircraft…”

He reiterated Brazil’s position that the “transfer of technology” is the key sticking point, but earlier comments from Brazil’s government indicate that a larger sticking point may involve the parlous and unstable state of the global economy. If the EU’s inability to enforce its membership terms triggers a global economic crisis, Brazil may find it difficult to field the fighters it needs. AFP | TheLocal.se (note that Saab the carmaker is not Saab aerospace).

Sept 22/11: MercoPress reports that Brazilian Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota has given French President Sarkozy a possible 2012 date to resume F-X2 – but that comes with a large caveat:

“Depending on the evolution of the global economic situation, if the crisis turns out to be less severe than some imagine, then those plans can resume next year.”

Aug 5/11: Personnel is policy. Brazilian defense minister Nelson Jobim is forced to resign, after public reports of critical comments concerning fellow ministers. He’s the 3rd minister to resign since President Rousseff took office in January 2011, which is creating strains in her governing coalition.

Mr. Jobim will be replaced by the former Foreign Minister, Celso Amorim. Amorim is a high profile figure. Some have called him anti-American, but Wikileaks cables suggest that this may have been a reaction to the activities of other figures in his department. It remains to be seen if, and how, his selection may affect the fighter competition. Mercopress | BBC | Amorim July 2011 interview, incl. video.

July 20/11: Boeing holds an industry forum in Brazil to outline opportunities available as part of the company’s F/A-18 Super Hornet offering.

May 24/11: Sea Gripen starts development. A Saab Group release states that Saab AB will open new UK headquarters and a new Saab Design Centre in London. The engineering center:

“…will capitalise on the UK’s maritime jet engineering expertise and is scheduled to open in the late Summer. Initially staffed by approximately 10 British employees, its first project will be to design the carrier-based version of the Gripen new generation multi-role fighter aircraft based on studies completed by Saab in Sweden.”

Sea Gripen was initially pushed for India (q.v. Dec 28/09 entry), but with Gripen out of M-MRCA unless something changes, the likely target would appear to be Brazil’s suspended F-X2 program.

May 18/11: Saab. Official opening of the Swedish – Brazilian centre of research and innovation (Centro de Inovacao e Pesquisa Sueco-Brasileiro, CISB) in Sao Bernardo de Campo, Brazil, which grew out of the Saab CEO’s September 2010 visit to Brazil. So far, the centre has attracted over 40 partners from academia and industry, who will be active partners in the specific projects. Areas of focus will be in Transport and Logistics, Defence and Security, and Urban development with a focus on energy and the environment.

Saab President & CEO Hakan Buskhe cites a coastal surveillance radar project with Atmos and a datalink development project with ION as examples, and the firm sees many opportunities in Brazil beyond the Gripen project. Civil security will get special attention, as Brazil is hosting both the FIFA World Cup and Olympic Games within the next few years. Saab Group.

Feb 22/11: U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere affairs, Frank Mora, stands by the technology transfer offer made to Brazil in the event of an F/A-18 Super Hornet buy, calling it “a significant technology transfer” that “would put Brazil at par with our close partners.” The question is whether the Brazilians will consider that enough, if an when they make a decision. UPI.

Feb 20/11: Agence France Presse:

“Major daily O Estado de Sao Paulo cited four unnamed government ministers as saying new President Dilma Rousseff saw no “climate” for the acquisition in 2011, and that such a move in the midst of a $30-billion slash in the year’s budget would be an “inconsistency.”

Jan 17/11: President Rousseff leaves the F-X2 competition in limbo, in light of concerns about the financing of the purchase, how much to borrow for the initial fighter purchase, and inter-agency disagreements. The exact commitment is a decision later in 2011, but no contract until 2012. In practice, however, there is no firm timeline or deadline for a decision, and domestic spending priorities loom large in Rousseff’s agenda. Which makes this a de facto suspension.

If it is a suspension, it leaves the situation of every contender in play. Rousseff has said she wishes to re-open the arguments between the air force (Gripen preferred) and the ministry (Rafale preferred), via an inter-ministerial group, and also wishes to open a dialogue with industry. Both of those moves would have the effect of adding weight to Saab’s bid. She has also reportedly pressed Sen. John McCain [R-AZ] to secure a clear written commitment that the U.S. Congress would not veto the transfer of technology and fighter components, and has reportedly pressed Boeing to improve its industrial participation offer. There have been reports that Rousseff is interested in moving Brazil closer to the USA in the international arena. If they are true, that could make a big difference to the Super Hornet’s chances. Folha de Sao Paolo [in Portuguese] | Defense News | Defense Update | Flight International || Americas Society (AS-COA) | Bloomberg | BusinessWeek re: Rafale program overall | Le Figaro [in French] | Reuters | UPI.

2010

FAB’s (revised?) evaluation in; Controversy in Brazil; Lula won’t sign a contract before he leaves office. Rafale: Takeoff?
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Dec 6/10: End of F-X2? Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva confirms that he won’t sign a fighter deal before he leaves office. An excerpt published by state news agency Agencia Brasil said:

“It’s a very big debt, it’s a long-term debt for Brazil. I could sign off on it and do a deal with France, but I’m not going to do that…”

A number of analysts expect his successor, former Marxist guerrilla Dilma Rousseff, to cancel the program altogether. With inflation beginning to rear its head in Brazil, Brazil’s Finance Minister Guido Mantega is promising a program of government spending cuts, in order to help deal with it. Unfortunately, the used Mirage 2000s that Brazil bought are unlikely to last much beyond 2014, and French officials remain confident – in public, at least. Agence France Presse | Bloomberg | DefenseWorld | Sweden’s The Local | Reuters || Folha de Sao Paolo [Portuguese, subscription].

Dec 1/10: Saab inaugurates a new Swedish-Brazilian research and innovation center in São Bernardo do Campo, Brazil, with a 2-day workshop. The center’s main foci include aerospace, defence and urban innovation/ civil security. Saab will work in close co-operation with local industry and universities including UFABC (Universidade Federal do ABC) and FEI (Centro Universitário da FEI), per a 2009 bilateral Government agreement to extend innovative high technological industrial co-operation between Brazil and Sweden.

Nov 3/10: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva says that:

“We are going to talk over the issue of the fighters – me, [his successor and lieutenant Dilma Rousseff] and [Defense Minister Nelson] Jobim.”

The clear implication is that Rousseff’s win will lead to Brazil confirming Lula’s pre-evaluation choice, and picking the Rafale. Agence France Presse.

April 7/10: AFP reports that Brazilian prosecutors have agreed to open an inquiry into the F-X2 competition, with prosecutor Jose Alfredo de Paulo Silva approving the request from an opponent of Lula’s, who complained that:

“The Brazilian government, because of external political factors, has decided to choose the Rafale, ruling out the Gripen and Super Hornet which were put forward at a lower price. That is against economic principles…”

A spokesman for Brazil’s interior ministry reportedly told AFP the prosecutor would now gather information, and decide if a civil case was possible, and said the inquiry could take up to a year. President Lula’s term ends in January 2011, however, and the election is set for October 2010, so even a 6-month delay would leave the fighter decision for Lula’s successor. See Jan 11/10 entry for the implications of that change.

Other reports quote Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, who says that Brazil’s air force prefers France’s Rafale jet despite the plane’s higher price tag, on industrial grounds. They also indicate that Lula intends to take his proposal to the defense council in the first half of May 2010, with an official decision expected soon after. A competition that is already very political, is becoming even more so. AFP | Avio News | Expatica | Usine Nouvelle [in French].

March 19-25/10: O Estado de Sao Paolo reports that the Brazilian air force certified all 3 fighter jet finalists as meeting Brazil’s technical specifications, and says that relevant reports have been delivered to the defense ministry. Brazil’s defense ministry said it would release final details during the week of April 5/10.

During a subsequent meeting with Sweden’s King Carl XVI Gustaf on March 25th, President Lula is quoted as saying that he’s waiting for the “definitive” technical report on the contenders. Saab CEO Aake Svensson reportedly told the Swedish news agency TT that the Gripen had come out on top in the Brazilian air force’s price and technical evaluation, but previous reports in this competition have been left “unfinalized” and then changed for political reasons. Agence France Presse | UPI | China’s People’s Daily.

March 9/10: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva claims in his weekly column that his government hasn’t made a decision yet on Brazil’s next fighter aircraft. That’s unlikely to be believed. Associated Press.

Feb 24/10: Agence France Presse says that Brazil’s government has officially denied a Folha de Sao Paulo report re: revised bids from the 3 competitors.

If that unsourced report is accurate, the Rafale’s price dropped from $8.2 billion to $6.2 billion, plus another $4 billion dollars in maintenance over the next 3 decades. The JAS-39NG Gripens were reportedly priced at $4.5 billion dollars plus $1.5 billion dollars in maintenance, while the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornets would reportedly cost $5.7 billion plus $1.9 billion in maintenance.

Jan 11/10: An unidentified Brazilian cabinet member tells Reuters that President Lula will choose the French-made Rafale jet as Brazil’s next-generation fighter plane, but wants to negotiate a lower price.

In the background, the political clock is ticking. Lula is constitutionally required to step down after 2 terms in office, and the election to succeed him is set for October 2010. If a deal cannot be done before then, Lula’s successor may have less invested in extending Brazil’s defense partnership with France. Given the apparent preferences within industry and the air force, that could change the likely favorite in an unfinished F-X2 competition.

Jan 8/10: Brazil’s Estadao de Sao Paulo says that the official Air Force report has been modified. It reportedly no longer ranks the 3 finalists, treats the strengths of the Rafale and F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters as established, treats the Gripen NG’s strengths as developmental, and emphasizes the advantages of a twin-engine fighter. With the F/A-18 E/F apparently a political non-starter, it’s expected that these changes will lower the barriers to selecting France’s Rafale. As President Lula intends. Estadao de Sao Paulo | defense-aerospace translation.

Jan 5/10: The Brazilian air force’s Comissao Coordenadora do Programa Aeronaves de Combate (FAB COPAC) has produced its technical evaluation, based on aircraft performance, purchase and lifetime costs, and industrial benefits. The report was ratified by FAB command on December 18th, and media reports from the Folha de Sao Paulo claim that FAB’s executive summary had Saab’s Gripen as the preferred choice, with Boeing’s Super Hornet in 2nd place, and the Rafale last.

The final decision will be President Lula’s, but despite a MdD statement that the report has not been formally delivered, it’s likely to raise the political cost of going ahead with the Rafale deal. The dates involved also shed new light on the government’s mid-December 2009 decision to postpone their final decision, as FAB commander Brigadier Juniti Saito was with Defense Minister Jobim on end-of-year trips to China, Ukraine, and Paris, and COPAC Brigadier Dirceu Tondolo Noro was reportedly called to join them in Paris at the last minute.

Lifetime cost is a very significant issue for the FAB, which understands the inevitable swings that accompany military budgeting in a commodity-driven economy. Saab claims a price of around $70 million (currently around EUR 50 million), which would be 60-70% of the Rafale’s offer price, depending on which sources one believes. Dassault has sort of denied that the Rafale would be 40-50% more expensive (q.v. Nov 12/09 entry), and also contests Saab’s claim that the Gripen NG’s operating and maintenance cost per flight-hour would be just 25% of the twin-engine Rafale’s, but the French firm has not publicly offered any detailed figures. In terms of the politicians’ most important benchmark, the FAB also reportedly gave Gripen NG the edge in industrial benefits, siding with Brazilian industry in believing that a project in development offers greater opportunities to expand Brazilian technologies and skills than a finished product like the Rafale. FAB release [Portuguese] | Folha de Sao Paulo [Portuguese] | Poder Aero [Portuguese or Google’s amusing auto-translation] | Reuters.

2009

Lula picks Rafale before tests are in; F-X2 decision postponed; Bids & revised offers submitted; Gripen’s AESA radar partnership; Super Hornet DSCA request; Does Brazilian industry favor the Gripen? Gripen Demo rollout
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Dec 28/09: Sea Gripen. Reports confirm that co-development of a carrier-capable “Sea Gripen” design was part of Saab’s response to India’s M-MRCA fighter competition RFI, adding that Brazil’s future fighter requirements were also targeted. Key changes are outlined, and Gripen VP of Operational Capabilities Peter Nilsson tells StratPost that the Sea Gripen is intended for both CATOBAR (Catapult Assisted Take Off But Arrested Recovery) as well as STOBAR (Short Take Off But Arrested Recovery – “ski jump”) operations:

“There will obviously be differences in the MTOW (Maximum Take-Off Weight). In a CATOBAR concept, the Sea Gripen will have a MTOW of 16,500 kilograms and a maximum landing weight of 11,500 kilograms. In a STOBAR concept it depends on the physics of the carrier. Roughly, the payload of fuel and weapons in STOBAR operations will be one-third less than the payload in CATOBAR operations. There will be no differences in ‘bring-back’ capability,” he says.”

See: StratPost | Gripen India

Dec 15/09: FX-2 Postponed. Brazilian President Lula da Silva elects to postpone the F-X2 decision until the spring. MercoPress | UPI.

Nov 18/09: A small political kerfuffle erupts as 9 ex-Assistant Secretaries of State for the Western Hemisphere send a letter to Sen. George LeMieux [R-FL] and Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, asking LeMieux to join Sen. Jim DeMint [R-SC] in lifting his hold on career diplomat Thomas Shannon’s nomination as Ambassador to Brazil. This is a fairly common practice by both parties, and it takes only 1 senator to place a hold on key nominations. This often leaves key posts unfulfilled for long periods of time.

The letter says that Boeing’s efforts to sell its F/A-18F to Brazil will be placed at risk by the continuing lack of an accredited ambassador. That probably won’t help, but a long history of restrictive American arms export policies, and the fact that the fix appears to be in at top levels to expand defense industrial cooperation with France, are both far more consequential. Bloomberg News.

Nov 12/09: France’s Dassault hits back at its competitors, sort of. Dassault’s Brazilian subsidiary of the French company held a hastily called news conference in Brasilia to defend the aircraft, and sort of deny reports of a 40% higher price than the lowest bid.

Dassault executive Jean-Marc Merialdo would not offer figures, or even deny the reports directly. He did say that claims the Rafale was more expensive by such a margin were “unfounded” and asserted that it was “comparable to other aircraft of the same class.” Defense News.

Oct 4/09: Bids in. Brazil’s FAB confirms that revised bids are in from all 3 short-listed contenders, and Saab’s offer clearly has significant support from the Swedish government.

Gripen International’s revised bid offers a wide range of elements, including: Full involvement in the Gripen NG development program; Complete technology transfer and national autonomy through joint development; Independence in choice of weapons and systems integration; Production in Brazil of up to 80% Gripen NG airframes, via a full Gripen NG assembly line; and Full maintenance capability in Brazil for the Gripen NG’s F414 engine. That last offer would largely remove the threat of future American interference, and it would be interesting to see how Gripen International proposes to achieve it. Gripen International touts “significantly lower acquisition, support and operating costs” for its plane, and all this would be backed by a firm proposal for full long-term financing from the government’s Swedish Export Credit Corporation.

The additional offers are equally significant. Brazil will have the sales lead for Gripen NG in Latin America, with joint opportunities elsewhere. Saab would join the KC-390 program as a development and marketing partner, and Sweden will evaluate the KC-390 for its long term tactical air transport needs, as a future replacement for its recently-upgraded but aging C-130 Hercules aircraft. Saab also proposes to replace Sweden’s aged fleet of about 42 SK60/ Saab 105 jet trainers with Embraer’s Super Tucano, but it received a SKr 130 million ($18.8 million) deal in September 2009 to upgrade the planes’ cockpit systems, and current Swedish plans would see the SK60s continue in service until mid-2017. FAB release [in Portuguese] | Gripen International release.

Sept 29/09: Who, us? Embraer release [PDF format]:

“Regarding the article published in the Valor Econômico newspaper, dated September 28, 2009, Embraer clarifies that it is not directly participating in the selection process of the new F-X2 fighter for the Brazilian Air Force and, contrary to what was stated, it has no preference among the proposals presented. Embraer reaffirms its unconditional support of this process, always in close alignment with Brazil’s Aeronautics Command and the Ministry of Defense.”

Sept 28/09: Embraer drops a political bombshell, when Embraer’s Deputy Chief Executive for the defense market, Orlando Jose Ferreira Neto, tells Valor Economico that the firm was asked to advise the Air Force re: industrial proposals, and concluded that participating in the JAS-39NG Gripen’s development offers Brazil’s aerospace industry the best long-term benefits. Embraer reportedly saw the JAS-39NG as offering the opportunity to participate in the design process, rather than just producing parts. The opinion is a shock, as France’s interest in buying Embraer’s KC-390 transports was expected to leave Brazil’s top aerospace firm solidly on-side for the Rafale bid. T-1 Holdings executives (see Sept 17/09 entry) were also quoted in the article.

In response, Defence Minister Jobim fires back to say that the government will make these decisions, not Embraer. Dow Jones | Defense Aerospace translations (note: links will not last) | Valor Online, via Noticias Militares [in Portuguese] | Defesa Brazil [in Portuguese] | O Globo [in Portuguese].

Sept 17/09: Saab announces that over 20 engineers from the Brazilian firms Akaer, Friuli, Imbra Aerospace, Minoica, and Winnstal are already working on the Gripen NG project in Linkoping, Sweden, with the Swedish government’s authorization. The 5 firms will participate as the T1 holding, and would be responsible for projecting and manufacturing the JAS-39BR’s central and rear fuselages and wings. If all goes well, Akaer predicts that as of 2010 a team of at least 150 engineers and technicians from the T1 holding will start working in Brazil, alongside 20 Swedish specialists.

Beyond Gripen production, the holding’s goal is to form a new Brazilian aeronautical center in Brazil, and some technology transfer in the area of composite materials is reportedly underway already. Shaping the wing of a supersonic craft requires higher quality levels than civil applications, as well as manufacturing challenges owing to thicker and more resistant parts. Management and integration training within a holding structure of this type will also be required.

Sept 15/09: Boeing kicks off a 2-day conference in Sao Paulo with 140 potential partner and supplier companies, as it reaffirms its Super Hornet offer in advance of the Sept 21/09 submission date. Bob Gower, vice president of the Boeing F/A-18E/F Program stated openly that the Super Hornet’s price “is considerably lower than that of the Rafale.” Boeing’s release also addresses reports of incomplete technology transfer for its product:

“Boeing delivered an offer to the Brazilian Air Force in August that included full technology transfer… [defined as] the option of Super Hornet co-production in Brazil and the sharing of technology that would allow Brazil to integrate its own weapons.”

Sept 14/09: MercoPress reports remarks by CGT union leader Dominique Richard at Dassault, who is concerned about the extent of technology transfer that may be offered. Dassault, meanwhile, denies that there will be any effect on French jobs. Richard:

“There’s something which troubles us in this contract and is the fact that Brazil wants to have its own military air industry and that the agreement with Dassault, the French government and the Brazilian government includes the transfer of technology.”

See also AnsaLatina [in Spanish].

Sept 13/09: Flight International’s “Closer political ties raise prospects for renewed alliance between Dassault and Embraer” covers the market possibilities.

The 2 firms have very little overlap. Dassault is strong in the high-end executive jet market, but Embraer brackets those offerings with bigger regional jets and lower-end Phenom light and very light jets. Some form of consolidation could make sense. Embraer is also looking to field competition with the Boeing 737 and Airbus A319/320 series, and could benefit from Dassault’s engineering expertise. On the flip side, the KC-390 tactical transport would add a new product category for Dassault, improving and eventually replacing the Rafale could take a wider set of resources than France and Dassault are willing to supply, and the closure of the Mirage 2000 line leaves a hole in Dassault’s offerings at the light end of the spectrum.

Sept 11/09: Brazil’s MdD announces a Sept 21/09 deadline for Dassault to submit its Rafale business proposal, adding that the other 2 firms can also choose to submit. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim is quoted as saying [translated]:

“Now we have to evaluate the proposals. The commitments that President Sarkozy made will have to be confirmed by Dassault’s offer… there has been a political decision of the President to expand the strategic alliance with France… for this policy decision to come into effect, it depends on Dassault and also the others, because there needs to be a comparative evaluation.”

The Brazilian air force (FAB) still expects to complete the technical review process by the end of October 2009, for delivery to the Minister of Defense and the President. The final decision will be the President’s – and Lula has already expressed his clear preference, unless Dassault does something to change it via adverse pricing and financing terms or issues with technology transfer. “>MdD release & defence aerospace translation | Folha de Sao Paolo re: tech transfer [in Portguese].

Sept 9/09: …or not. Aftermath, and clarifications. Brazil’s President and MDD reaffirm their intended defense partnership with France, while the US Embassy correctly notes – and Brazil’s MdD confirms – that no formal decision has been taken yet. This is technically true, but there is no question that the Rafale has been given preferred bidder status. Negotiations would have to fail badly before any other contender had a chance. The Brazilian newspaper Folha de Sao Paolo:

“The expectation is that the deal will be concluded with France, but only if it offers a lower price for the Rafale, the most expensive of the competitors, and a more favorable interest rate. According to [reporting by] Folha de Sao Paulo, Lula rushed into dinner with Sarkozy on Sunday night and skipped several steps of the selection process, which angered the Air Force Command and left Jobim in the crossfire.”

There are also widespread reports that Brazil’s unwillingness to be subject to the USA’s potential ITAR restrictions and technology transfer limits was a key factor in their rejection of the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, and of Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen NG (whose F414 engine is American). Brazilian President’s Office | MDD clarification | US Embassy in Brazil | Folha de Sao Paolo & translation via defense aerospace | Gripen International confirms its continued participation.

Sept 7/09: Winner!? Brazil’s Ministerio Da Defesa announces that Dassault Aviation is now the F-X2 competition’s preferred bidder, and the country will order 36 Rafales subject to further negotiations. The announcement also says that Brazil has secured French cooperation to develop Embraer’s KC-390 medium transport, and possibly buy 10-12 of the aircraft when they’re introduced.

This sale would be France’s 1st export order for its Rafale fighter, after numerous attempts spanning more than a decade. French technology transfer across a broad range of projects was reportedly the critical factor in the deal, and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim reportedly said that the decision to begin talks with Dassault “was not adopted in relation to the other two” competing companies. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, meanwhile, described the move as “definitively consolidating a strategic partnership we started in 2005.” Brazil will now produce helicopters (EC725), submarines (nuclear-powered and diesel-electric), transport aircraft (KC-390) and possibly fighters (Rafale) in cooperation with France, under a broad strategic partnership in the defense arena. MDD announcement [Portuguese] | Agence France Presse | France24 | CS Monitor | L.A. Times | Reuters.

Sept 5/09: Brazil’s Defesa@NET explains the expected way forward:

“A Brazilian military expert who runs a specialist magazine titled Defesanet, Nelson During, told AFP that Brazil’s decision should be known in October. “The air force should send its evaluation of the three aircraft to the government on October 23 — Day of the Aviator — indicating its choice. Then, the National Defense Council should ratify that choice pretty quickly,” he said.”

Sept 3/09: Brazil’s Defesa@NET refers to an exclusive interview that Agence France Presse conducted with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and offers key quotes:

“A country of Brazil’s importance cannot buy a product from another country without technology transfer… France has shown itself to be the most flexible country in terms of transferring technology, and evidently, this is an exceptional comparative advantage… France is the only important country ready to discuss with us technology transfers in all these domains [helicopters, submarines, and fighter jets]… Brazil has drawn up a strategic defense plan. We are convinced … that because of the Amazon, our deep-water offshore oil deposits, Brazil should have a defense industry in keeping with its size and import.”

Aug 21/09: The Brisbane Times covers stepped up lobbying in Brazil, as the decision date is reportedly pushed from September to October 2009.

Aug 6/09: F/A-18 filing. Per US laws, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announces [PDF] Brazil’s formal request to buy up to 36 F/A-18E/F Super hornets and related equipment. The DSCA release is careful to stress that Brazil has yet to select its future fighter; the notice simply gives Brazil full assurance that all aspects of the sale can proceed smoothly if the Super Hornet is selected. This may be why no estimated cost has been given – a departure from DSCA norms.

Industrial offset agreements associated with this proposed sale are expected, but would be defined during negotiations between the purchaser and contractor. The equipment would include:

• 28 F/A-18E Super Hornet Aircraft,
  
• 8 F/A-18F Super Hornet Aircraft
  
• 76 F414-GE-400 installed engines: 72 installed, 4 spares
  
• 36 AN/APG-79 AESA Radar Systems
  
• 36 M61A2 installed 20mm Gun Systems
  
• 44 Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing Systems (JHMCS)
  
• 144 LAU-127 Launchers
  
• 28 AIM-120C-7 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM)
  
• 28 AIM-9M Sidewinder short range air-air missiles. AIM-9M is the most common current version in US service, but not the most advanced; that distinction belongs to the AIM-9X. Brazil is collaborating with South Africa on the A-Darter SRAAM, which is intended to be an AIM-9X peer.
  
• 60 GBU-31/32 Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM)
  
• 36 AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) precision glide bombs
  
• 10 AGM-88B HARM anti-radar missiles. Brazil produces its own missile, but the HARM is already integrated with the Super hornet and Brazil’s weapon is not.
  
• 36 AN/ASQ-228v2 Advanced Targeting Forward-Looking Infrared (ATFLIR) surveillance and targeting pods.
  
• 36 AN/ALR-67v3 Radar Warning Receivers
  
• 36 of BAE’s AN/ALQ-214 Radio Frequency Countermeasures systems
  
• 40 of BAE’s AN/ALE-47 Electronic Warfare Countermeasures systems
  
• 112 AN/ALE-50 Towed Decoys
  
• Plus the Joint Mission Planning System, support equipment, spare and repair parts, personnel training and training equipment, ferry and tanker support, flight test, software support, publications and technical documents, and other support.

The principal contractors were listed as:

• The Boeing Company St. Louis, MO (Super Hornets, JDAM)
  
• General Electric Aircraft Engines in Lynn, MA (F414-400)
  
• Northrup Grumman Corporation El Segundo, CA (Super Hornets)
  
• Raytheon Corporation El Segundo, CA (ATFLIR pods, APG-79 radar, AGM-88, JSOW, AIM-120, AIM-9, ALE-50 towed decoys)
  
• Lockheed Martin in Bethesda, MD

Implementation of this sale will require approximately 8 contractor representatives to provide technical and logistics support in Brazil for 2 years. U.S. Government and contractor representatives will also participate in program management and technical reviews for 1-week intervals twice semi-annually.

July 13/09: MercoPress reports that deals are in the works between F-X2 contenders and Brazilian companies.

According to MercoPress, Boeing IDS President & CEO Jim Albaugh said agreements have been signed with 27 Brazilian companies that are capable of producing parts for the F/A-18, including Embraer. The move could reportedly translate into 5,000 jobs throughout the entire supply chain.

Saab Gripen’s marketing chief Bob Kemp was reportedly quoted as saying that Gripen International was prepared to shift up to 50% of future production to Brazil.

The report adds that Brazilian President Lula da Silva has invited French President Sarkozy to its independence day celebrations on September 7th, as a guest of honor. Da Silva reportedly said that he hopes to sign new defence accords at that time. This is taken by some as an indication that Dassault’s Rafale is currently the favored candidate. France is Brazil’s most significant defense supplier on a broad range of fronts, however, and so the promise of new accords is not definitive.

May 4/09: Revised offers. Brazil’s FAB(Forca Aerea Brazileira) issues a release, announcing that revised offers from the participating companies were submitted to F-X2 Project Management (GPF-X2). The companies are listed, and it’s the same list as the finalists and original submissions listed on Feb 2/09: Boeing, Dassault, and Saab. No Russian firms listed.

GPF-X2 has held clarification meetings held since March 2/09. On March 30/09, it began verification visits to see the firms’ facilities, maintenance, R&D labs, and active squadrons; and will make evaluation flights. FAB release [in Portuguese]

April 6/09: Russia’s RIA Novosti quotes Alexander Fomin, deputy director of Russia’s Federal Service on Military-Technical Cooperation:

“We are actively participating in the Brazilian tender, which has been reopened. It involves over 100 fighter planes. Russia has made a bid in the tender with its Su-35 multirole fighter. The tender has stiff requirements, involving not only the sale, but also the transfer of technology. It is a key condition of the deal and Russia is ready to satisfy it… We are discussing with the well-known Brazilian company Embraer the transfer of technology and the construction of facilities for the future licensed production of the aircraft…”

Fomin reportedly added that such a facility could also produce the 5th generation PAK-FA fighter being developed in conjunction with India. Experiences with the American F-22 and F-35 suggest that this would depend on the sophistication of the facilities. Stealth fighters require new equipment and techniques that go beyond normal aircraft construction standards, and a facility set up to produce even 4+ generation fighters may not be adequate.

March 30/09: The Brazilian Air force announces [in Portuguese] that it is beginning visits and technical evaluation of the 3 finalists. This evaluation will include test flights, and evaluation of the bids’ technical, industrial and maintenance offerings.

March 24/09: Gripen AESA. Dassault’s acquisition of a large stake in Thales led to Thales’ refusal to sell Saab the RBE2-AA AESA radar beyond the Gripen Demo stage. In response, Saab and SELEX Galileo sign an agreement to develop an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar for the JAS-39NG. The arrangement is initially aimed at Brazil’s fighter competition, where it leverages Selex Galileo’s strong pedigree equipping Brazil’s F-5BR fighters (Grifo-F radar) and AMX light attack jets (Scipio radar). Once integrated and proven, however, the AESA upgrade would be available to any Gripen customer.

Per Aviation Week’s March 10/09 report from Aero India, the radar will use a Vixen 500 AESA front end, with “back end” modules from the existing PS-05/A. Using those back end modules simplifies integration, and also avoids the control issues inherent in American alternatives. As it happens, the 2 firms have a long history of radar partnerships. Ericsson (now Saab’s) partner on the original PS-05/A was Ferranti, which became GEC-Marconi, then BAE Systems, and now Selex Galileo. Selex was also Saab’s partner in the recent M-AESA R&D project.

The Vixen 500 AESA radar is currently used in the USA by border surveillance aircraft, but it has yet to see service on a fighter. Korea’s F/A-50 was recently barred from using the Vixen 500E, under an agreement with co-developer Lockheed Martin that did not allow the F/A-50’s capabilities to surpass the ROKAF’s F-16s. Saab | Gripen International.

Feb 2/09: Bids are in. Boeing confirms that it has submitted a bid involving 36 F/A-18 Super Hornet Block IIs, with the APG-79 AESA radar.

Gripen International confirms a bid involving 36 JAS-39NG aircraft, with longer range, AESA radars, and other enhancements. Their release adds that Brazil will have “direct involvement in the development, production and maintenance of the platform but it will also generate transfer of key technology including access to Gripen source codes.”

It is presumed that Dassault also submitted a 36-plane bid for its Rafale fighter. Boeing release | Gripen International release.

2007 – 2008

F-X2 program revived; RFP out; 3 finalists picked. FAB Mirage 2000s
(click to view full)

November 2008: Russia and Brazil sign a series of agreements on military technology cooperation. As is customary, the agreements set out protocols for the protection of intellectual property rights and technology secrets, which make joint ventures and local production easier to manage. Source.

Oct 30/08: RFP. Brazil’s FAB formally issues the RFP to the short-listed competitors. The 3 firms will have until Feb 2/09 to present their proposals, which must include operational, logistic, industrial, commercial, technical, commercial compensation (offset) and technology transfer details. FAB release [Portuguese].

Oct 1/08: Finalists picked. Brazil has decided on its 3 finalists: Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Dassault Aviation’s Rafale, and Saab/BAE’s JAS-39 Gripen.

EADS Eurofighter, Lockheed Martin’s F-16BR, and Sukhoi’s SU-35 all failed to make the cut. Brazilian FAB release [Portuguese] | Reuters | Boeing release | Gripen International release.

Aug 27/08: Defesanet reports that Lockheed Martin will be offering an F-16BR for Brazil’s F-X2, rather than the F-35. The report adds that barriers to technology transfer of some F-35 systems played a role in this decision. Defesanet [Portuguese] | Forecast International.

July 30/08: Boeing delivers a detailed proposal July 30 offering its advanced F/A-18E/F Block II Super Hornet to the Brazilian Air Force. The aircraft would be similar to the F/A-18Fs ordered by the Royal Australian Air Force, and would include Raytheon’s APG-79 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar. Boeing release.

June 12/08: Boeing (and presumably other manufacturers) receive the Brazilian RFP. The stated initial requirement is for 36 aircraft, with the potential for up to 120 aircraft. Boeing release | FAB statment (Brazilian air force).

January 2008: Brazil’s President Lula formally authorizes Brazilian Air Force Commander Juniti Saito to restart the F-X program.

November 2007: Brazil’s decision to hold an “F-X2″ competition is announced by the Brazilian press.

Footnotes

(1) Russian firms tend to partner due to local political necessity, or to gain technologies/ quality level they do not have, rather than as a strategic option for penetrating new markets. In Brazil’s case, one logical option would have been a partnership with India to offer the thrust-vectoring, canard-winged SU-30MKI, which is arguably superior to the SU-35. The aircraft are partly produced in India, and already have obvious slots for tech transfer because that was built into the Indian program.

A 3-way deal leveraging India’s HAL, and setting up an NPO Saturn engine plant in Brazil, would have offered several benefits. It would offer India and other SU-30 customers a welcome 2nd engine source, offer Brazilian aerospace a critical additional puzzle piece in engine construction, offer the FAB removal the biggest historical problem with Russian planes, and offer Russia a substantially strengthened lobbying effort.

On the avionics and electronics front, Elbit Systems avionics could be sourced from the Brazilian subsidiary AEL to offer fleet commonality, and some can be found in the SU-30MKI already. Indian electronics used in the SU-30MKI would offer additional options for international cooperation and license production, alongside Israeli options that already equip Brazilian aircraft.

The question is whether the Russians were ever good enough at partnering to pull something like that off, or were even willing to try.

Appendix A: F-X2 and Brazil’s FAB Brazil
(click to view full)

Brazil can depend on its sheer size, and the barrier created by its geography, to shield its population centers from many threats. The same isn’t necessarily true of its military installations or economic interests, which require either air superiority, or air denial from mobile and effective defensive missiles. Airpower’s flexibility also makes it a uniquely useful as a deterrent and response to threats and coercion, and is uniquely suited to the job of patrolling vast areas.

Much of that patrol work falls to the mid-tier of Brazil’s its air force, and its specialty fleets. Those are in good shape, which makes sense in a region where most threats are internal. Brazil’s 43 or so upgraded Brazilian-Italian AMX subsonic light attack jets, and 99 indigenous Super Tucano COIN/surveillance turboprops, are quality offerings within their respective niches. Their performance is very well suited to basic policing duties, especially when backed by a small but advanced set of airborne, ground looking and maritime R-99/ P-99 radar derivatives of Embraer’s ERJ-145 business jets. The ERJ derivatives will be augmented by 12 refurbished P-3 Orions, bought to patrol Brazil’s huge coastlines and maritime economic zone.

Unfortunately, the high end of the FAB’s fighter fleet is inferior even when judged by regional standards.

After its existing Mirage IIIs simply wore out and had to be retired at the end of 2005, FAB Command worked out a plan to find an emergency interim replacement. The final choice was 12 second-hand French Mirage 2000Cs. The airframes selected by Brazil were produced for France between 1984 -1987, and began arriving in Brazil in 2006.

A parallel F-5 upgrade program is underway to keep those 1960s-era lightweight fighters in service for another 15 years, while modernizing them to a level of effectiveness that’s slightly below the Mirages.

FAV SU-30MK2
(click to view full)

Inducting 20 year old aircraft was not a long-term solution. Especially for a country that reportedly had about 37% of its 719-plane air force grounded, due to a combination of age and the toll of Brazil’s environments. Upgrading the F-5s is useful, but can’t even be described as a short-term solution to the gap at the high end of their force. Meanwhile, Venezuela’s large military buys, and especially its FAV’s recent purchase of long-range, 4+ generation SU-30MK2 fighters, appear to have had the effect of triggering counter moves around Latin America. So, too, have Venezuela’s actions around Latin America, as the line between external and internal threats blurs. In Brazil’s case, interference within key Brazilian natural gas provider Bolivia was not seen as a friendly act.

Publicly, Brazil has been careful to stress that this is not about an arms race. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim said in a 2007 public speech that:

“Brazil has well established, peaceful relations with all South American nations … one of our political priorities is economic and structural integration of the region … (and in 2008) we’ll also be strengthening our military links… [Brazil cannot] neglect its defense. Therefore, we will increase our budget outlays and investment in the army, navy and air force by more than 50 percent… [Brazil] is elaborating a national strategy defense plan that will determine each military branch’s mission and the equipment it needs for its activities”.

The reassurances are meant to be sincere. So, too, are the plans referred to in the second half of the quote. Brazil has shaken off its sloth, and taken wide-ranging steps to revive its military. Including its fighters.

In January 2008, Brazil’s President Lula authorized Brazilian Air Force Commander Juniti Saito to restart the long-delayed F-X fighter replacement program. “F-X2″ aimed to acquire 36 next generation fighters for the Brazilian Air Force. A previous 2001 F-X competition was put on hold in 2003, and then canceled in February 2004 due to budget difficulties and political issues. The initial budget for the current iteration is said to be $2.2 billion, but is likely to end up being 2x-3x that figure. The RFP leaves the door open for future buys, which could raise that total to 120 aircraft.

Appendix B: F-X2 – The Industrial Angle AMX light fighter
(click to view full)

President Lula da Silva’s administration had larger plans than just equipment recapitalization when restarted F-X2, saying that “we must overcome the lack of strategic planning and the technological dismantling of the last two decades.” The new National Defence Strategy group is designed to plan and execute the recovery of the “capability of our armed forces and the technological edge we once had in certain fields.”

Brazil maintained an impressive niche capability during the 1970s and 1980s in areas like tank and armored vehicle design, rockets, missiles, and of course aircraft. Unfortunately, in a world divided by cold war allegiances, there was often little room for a non-aligned 3rd party exporter. While some projects like the Tucano succeeded, and others like the AMX enjoyed qualified success, many promising projects saw limited exports or failed.

The world is no longer divided into cold war camps, which may offer the Brazilian defense industry a second chance if it partners well and executes smartly. According to the main guidelines of the da Silva’s long term strategy, Brazilian defense industry should look to become a player again in the export of missiles, aircraft and other equipment. UAVs, with their long endurance surveillance capabilities and natural connection to Brazil’s aviation industry, are likely to also become a priority. The overall thrust of Brazil’s policies is certainly clear: “We must convince ourselves that we can become a world power this century,” said President Lula da Silva.

Military Review, 1999
(click to view full)

On the one hand, these statements remind one of the old joke that goes: “Brazil is the nation of the future – and always will be.”

On the other hand, anteing up with a major hike to the defense budget certainly displays seriousness, and Brazil has already set up a key partnership to develop the 5th generation A-Darter short range air-air missile with South Africa. A similar deal with Israel for its Derby/Alto radar guided missile is also expected at some point, and RFPs went out for a handful of medium transport helicopters (AW EH101, Russian Mi-171V, EADS EC725 won) and some attack helicopters (AW-TAI A129, EADS Tiger, Russian Mi-35M won).

The giant may be stirring again. A handful of fighters and helicopters, plus ships to patrol its coasts, won’t exactly make anyone a world power. Budgetary resources will also have to address an urgent need for transport aircraft, which is pushing resources toward Embraer’s KC-390. Still, these buys may go a long way toward ensuring the nation’s ability to patrol and enforce its long borders. The Gripen deal will complete that program in the air.

The defense spending surge is also helping Brazil to re-establish its faded indigenous defense industry on the world stage. In the air, Embraer’s KC-390 medium transport has become a serious contender for global orders, even as the EC725 partnership with Eurocopter is giving Brazil much-improved helicopter manufacturing and servicing. The A-Darter missile program is ongoing with South Africa, and on the ground, a major partnership with Iveco will produce hundreds of VBTP 6×6 wheeled armored personnel carriers. Cooperation with France will produce 5 submarines, including 1 nuclear attack sub; and a major naval tender to buy frigates, patrol vessels, and supply ships has attracted bids from Britain, Korea, France, and elsewhere. A clever buy of 3 Scarborough Class 90m patrol boats from BAE, with options to build 5 more in Brazil, has begun that process.

Additional Readings Background: FAB & Programs

• Scramble – Brazilian Air Arms. there are several. The Forca Aerea Brasileira (Air Force), Comando da Forca Aeronaval (Naval air arm, which includes the carrier Sao Paolo – once France’s Foch – and its A-4M Skyhawks), and the Aviacao do Exercito (Army aviation).

• MILAVIA – Brazilian Air Force FAB – Forca Aerea Brasileira.

• GlobalSecurity – F-X BR.

• DID FOCUS article – The JAS-39 Gripen: Sweden’s 4th Generation Wild Card. Winner.

• Saab – Gripen for Brazil.

• MILAVIA – Military Aviation Specials – The Mirage 2000 in Brazil. Now retired.

• DID – South Africa, Brazil to Develop A-Darter SRAAM. Already integrated on the SAAF’s JAS-39C/D Gripens.

Background: Fighter Contenders Losing Finalists

• Air Force Technology – F/A-18E/F Super Hornet Maritime Strike Attack Aircraft, USA.

• Flight International, via WayBack (March 13/07) – Ultra Hornet. Describes the updates to create the Hornet Block 30/Block II; the performance enhancements are all electronic rather than aerodynamic. Interestingly, future enhancements may include a limited electronic attack function for all APG-79 AESA radars.

• DID FOCUS article – EA-18G Program: The USA’s Electronic Growler.

• DID – France’s Rafale Fighters: Au Courant In Time?.

• Air Force Technology – Rafale Multi-Role Combat Fighter, France.

Others

• Eurofighter GmbH – Eurofighter Typhoon official site.

• DID – Eurofighter’s Future: Tranche 3, and Beyond.

• DID – Eurofighter’s Future: Tranche 3, and Beyond.

• DID Spotlight article – The UAE’s F-16 Block 60 Desert Falcon Fleet. This is currently the most advanced F-16 variant in the world.

• DID – Russia’s SU-35: Mystery Fighter No More.

• DID FOCUS article – Lightning Rod: F-35 Fighter Family Capabilities and Controversies.

News & Views

• DID Spotlight – Venezuela Buying SU-30s, Helicopters, et. al. From Russia. Covers those deals and updates.

• Veja Magazine, translated by Saab (February 2014) – Sweden is a model: Interview with Hakan Bushke, CEO of Saab. Talks about Brazil’s F-X2 competition, which Saab won.

• Miami Herald (Sept 25/13) – Why we spy on Brazil. And why the USA believes that they need to continue, even if it costs Boeing a sale. Which it did.

• DefesaNet (Dec 10/12) – GRIPEN – A ticket to the future. Test pilot gets to fly it.

• Foreign Policy Centre, via WayBack (Sept 27/09) – The choice of French fighter aircraft in Brazil and its impact on Latin America. The FPC is based in Britain.

• Flight International, via WayBack (Sept 13/09) – Closer political ties raise prospects for renewed alliance between Dassault and Embraer.

• Council on Hemispheric Affairs, via WayBack (Sept 9/09) – The Brazilian Military Is Back, As It Fleshes Out Its Weaponry And Strategies. COHA’s point of view is left-wing.

• Info LatAm, via WayBack (Sept 6/09) – Carrera Armamentista en América Latina: armas, armas, armas [in Spanish].

• Council on Hemispheric Affairs, via WayBack (Sept 1/09) – Embraer: Brazilian Military Industry becoming a Global Arms Merchant? COHA’s point of view is left-wing.

• Defense News (April 16/09) – IAI Casts Lot for Future Growth with Brazil [dead link]. “Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) looked around the world for its future growth and signed up for Brazil and India, said Yair Shamir, chairman of the diversified aerospace and defense group…”

• Forecast International, via WayBack (Aug 26/08) – Brazil Restarts Big-Ticket Procurement with an Eye to the Future. Sees the 2 biggest ticket items as the F-X2 program, and Brazil’s renewed push to design a nuclear fast attack submarine, in conjunction with the French.

• DID (July 2/08) – Brazil Signs $1B+ Production Deal for Cougar Helicopters. The medium helicopter competition is decided.

• Defesanet, via WayBack (Nov 7/07) – Lula reaparelha Forças Armadas de olho na transferência de tecnologia [in Portugese]. Reprinted from O Estado de Sao Paolo.

• Mercopress Uruguay, via WayBack (Nov 6/07) – Brazil to boost defense industry and acquire 36 fighter jets.

• Bloomberg (Nov 4/07) – Brazil Plans to Buy $2.2 Billion of Fighter Planes, Estado Says.

• Australia’s News Ltd., via WayBack (Oct 29/07) – Brazil boosts military spending more than 50 percent.

• Council on Hemispheric Affairs, via WayBack (March 20/07) – The Russian Arms Merchant raps on Latin America’s Door.

• DID (Nov 22/05) – F.I. Looks At Latin American Arms Market, Sees Venezuelan Buildup. Forecast International valued Venezuela’s military modernization program at up to $30.7 billion through 2012, which would make the country the leading arms buyer in the region through the rest of the decade.

• Jane’s, via WayBack (April 15/05) – Brazil: On a shoestring.

• Frost & Sullivan, via WayBack (March 29/07) – Future Fighter Aircraft Requirements in Emerging Economies.

• Defesanet, via WayBack (Feb 24/05) – Cancelado o Programa F-X BR.

• Defesanet, via WayBack – (Jan 7/05) – F-X is Dead – Long Live F-X.

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