Updated: 1 week 1 day ago
Wed, 09/12/2015 - 21:20
The national carrier of Belarus, Belavia, will launch services from Minsk to Belgrade starting September 19. Flights will run twice per week, every Monday and Thursday onboard the fifty seat Bombardier CRJ200. The service will operate with a stop in Budapest. The Belarusian carrier has requested fifth freedom rights on the Budapest - Belgrade - Budapest sector. However, so far the airline has not been granted such rights. Tickets are already on sale but only on between Minsk and Belgrade and vice versa (though they are not yet available on the airline’s website). Flight details for the Minsk - Belgrade service can be found here while further information for the Budapest - Belgrade sector can be found here. Belavia first announced plans to launch services to Belgrade in November last year after the two countries agreed on a bilateral air agreement. Several years ago it was planned for the airline to launch winter charters from Minsk to Niš Constantine the Great Airport, however, the airline and hoteliers at the nearby mountain resort of Kopaonik failed to reach an agreement. Thus, the flights never went ahead. Several airlines from the former Soviet Union have operated flights to Belgrade in the past few years. They include airBaltic from Riga, Aerosvit from Kiev and Uzbekistan Airlines which operated flights from Tashkent to New York via the Serbian capital. The Belarusian national carrier offers an extensive network to Russia and will hope to attract transit passengers from Belgrade. The Belgrade - Moscow route is one of the busiest operating out of the Serbian capital with 28 weekly flights planned over the peak summer months. In May alone Aeroflot and Jat carried a combined total of 21.953 passengers between the two cities. Belavia has previously said it is especially hoping on attracting passenger from Belgrade to Saint Petersburg. Belavia becomes the third new scheduled airline to launch flights to Belgrade Nikola Tesla Airport this summer season following easyJet and Etihad Airways.
Wed, 09/12/2015 - 21:20
President of the European Council Herman van Rompuy stated that EU leaders decided that the accession talks with Serbia should start by January 2014, which is a historic moment for the Balkans and Europe as a whole.Van Rompuy underlined at a press conference that there are no new conditions for the start of negotiations and announced that in January 2014 an inter-governmental conference with Serbia will be held, by which negotiations on EU membership will be opened formally.He also announced his visit to Belgrade on 1 July during which he will highlight the importance of the progress made in the process of European integration.President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso welcomed the decision to set the date for the start of negotiations with Serbia, describing it as a historic event. Source: Serbian Government
Wed, 09/12/2015 - 21:20
We visited Belgrade last week, where we met with the local representatives of the IMF, European Union, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Central Bank, Finance Ministry, Fiscal Council and local journalists. We believe the government will ultimately have to sign an IMF deal as its macroeconomic imbalances are far too great for it to go it alone. But before then, we expect to see heightened political uncertainty, which will weigh on the sovereign credit. Things will get worse before they get better. Establish underweight Serbia USD 21s vs. Slovenia USD 22s.The economy has enjoyed a bounce back in the first half of the year. But this has almost entirely been based on exports from a single manufacturing company and agricultural base effects. The contraction in private consumption is likely to continue this year and next as real wages and employment levels fall further. We expect growth to be capped at 2% in 2013 and 2014. Balance of payment dynamics are poor, with the current account deficit at ~8% of GDP, with minimal coverage from FDI inflows and heavy reliance on portfolio inflows. Current market conditions leave Serbia vulnerable. But the central bank's substantial FX reserves give us some comfort and their active presence in the FX market make long RSD vs. EUR an attractive trade, particularly given the ~9% carry. But that's one for the brave. The government's target of reducing the budget deficit from 6.4% of GDP last year to 3.6% this year is already out of the window. A new supplementary budget now targets a general government budget deficit of 5.2%. Risks are skewed towards further fiscal slippage given optimistic growth assumptions and reliance on various cost savings at numerous ministerial levels. Calling the rest of the USD 24s is off the table in our view. The government's financing conditions are looking tight and fiscal reserves have dwindled after heavy redemptions in May. The government is relying on a further USD 1bn of issuance in the external market and USD 1.3bn of issuance in local market. USD 300mn from Russia, USD 200mn from the World Bank and USD 400mn of project loans will also be needed. IMF deal will eventually have to be signed. Serbia's macroeconomic imbalances are far too great for it to go it alone. Nothing will happen, however, in the next few months due to logistical factors and summer holidays. After the EU decision on whether or not to grant Serbia a date for the start of accession talks, attentions will be re-focused to internal matters, particularly the politics. A government re-shuffle will be the least of the political instability that is on the horizon. Full coalition break-up and early elections cannot be ruled out. Trade idea: There is not much room for good news over next 2 months. Establish underweight Serbia USD 21s vs. Slovenia USD 22s.bne/RBS
Wed, 09/12/2015 - 21:20
Like an anxious bride-to-be, Serbia has been desperately seeking positive signals for a firm date to begin both the celebrations and hard work that would result in a union with the European Union.Meanwhile, the tentative groom--by way of the German Bundestag-- appears to have finally relented and has set out conditions for Serbia's inevitable membership in the EU.Thursday's vote in the Bundestag essentially removed any significant obstacle to the European Council meeting on Friday in Brussels, which is expected to follow through with the German recommendations that Serbia begin the negotiation process with the EU in January of 2014, if Serbia complies with a number of key conditions, most importantly if it achieves "normalization" with its breakaway province of Kosovo by year's end.For Serbia, which has for years maintained a twin-track policy of working toward EU accession while defending its territorial integrity, the prospect of an actual date to begin negotiations with the EU may prove too attractive a carrot for the country-- economically and politically battered since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia--to maintain the pretense of sovereignty over Kosovo.The fact that Kosovo's independence has been championed by leading EU member states and the U.S. has left the Serbian nation wounded and deeply skeptical, but does potentially represent the closing chapter in the sad and bloody tale of the implosion of the former Yugoslavia. The patent contradiction of forcing Serb minorities to live in emerging states of the former Yugoslavia, by claiming the sanctity of borders of all former republics of Yugoslavia--with the exception of Serbia--is not lost on the average Serb.bne/Xinhua
Wed, 09/12/2015 - 21:20
Serbia's Minister of Finance and Economy Mladjan Dinkic and Johnson Electric Director for Europe Laurent Cardon signed a memorandum of understanding, under which the company will build a factory of electric motors in Nis used in the automotive industry. Dinkic said after the signing that this is the first foreign investor from Hong Kong in Serbia, adding that the company last year had a turnover of more than $2 billion in the world's top electronics industry.He noted that the company has seven factories in Europe, i.e. in Switzerland, Italy, France, Poland and Hungary, adding that the value of investments in Nis in the first phase of the project is €15 million.The Minister pointed out that the strategy of the government of Serbia is to help launch production and create jobs through new investments, noting that the factory will have 1,000 employees in the first phase.He also announced construction of another plant of the company Leoni, which will employ approximately 1,500 people. Source: Serbian Government