European Union

Faced with the potential threat from Russia and decreased support from the US, Europe is once again discussing boosting its defence spending. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed softening the EU debt rules for this purpose and Denmark has announced that it will increase its defence spending to more than three percent of its GDP. Most commentators welcome the initiative.

At a Ukraine summit on Monday in Paris, the leaders of seven EU countries as well as the UK, the EU and Nato had hoped to agree on a common European position on ending the Ukraine war ahead of the Russia-US meeting in Riyadh. Since then, discussions have focused on the question of deploying European peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. Commentators examine the stance of individual countries and Europe as a whole.

At a meeting of their foreign ministers in the Saudi capital Riyadh, the US and Russia have agreed on initial steps in the direction of a rapprochement, with the resumption of ambassadorial relations and preparations for a summit meeting between presidents Trump and Putin. Negotiators are to seek ways to end to the war in Ukraine and increase economic cooperation. Europe's press analyses the signals.

A just energy transition in Europe depends on collaboration at all levels—from policymakers to local communities. Yet, energy poverty remains a pressing issue, affecting 40 million EU citizens due to high costs, poor housing, and limited access to energy-efficient solutions.

Not so much a post as a list of links for you this time, as I’ve been working up from a thread on BlueSky to a graphic to a podcast.

The central theme here is how the UK-EU relationship is affected by the chaotic Trump administration in the US, particularly in the wake of his moves on Ukraine, Russia and NATO. Much as the EU had to respond to the UK’s stated willingness to break good faith during the Brexit negotiations, so too do the UK and EU now jointly need to respond here.

Of course, part of the problem with chaotic situations is, well, the chaos; you don’t know what’s coming next. Hence the title of this; circling the wagons to defend against the immediate threat, even as you want to continue on a longer journey.

As well as trying to work out some baseline assumptions, I also suggest what is in effect a holding model for the long-term relationship while the pressing needs around Ukraine can be addressed. I’ll not pretend it’s all that satisfactory, but we seem to be living in a world of less-than-satisfactory situations, so tough luck on that one.

Any way, back to the links.

We start with a first thread on BlueSky:

https://bsky.app/profile/simonusherwood.bsky.social/post/3liel7pudlx2y

This was essentially working through the unsustainability of UK hedging in the new context.

Then we move to a bigger thread:

https://bsky.app/profile/simonusherwood.bsky.social/post/3lijgqhoguf2e

This sets out the basics of my thinking, including discussion of the circling the wagons approach as a manifestation of a de-risking strategy. Particular mention needs to be made here of Nicolai von Ondarza’s work on security arrangements, which is excellent on the specifics of how the UK and EU could move to more institutionalised dealings. If you want more on de-risking, then I’ve worked off the EU’s European Economic Security Strategy.

If that’s all too much, then here’s a graphic form of the key bits:

PDF: https://bit.ly/UshGraphic137

And finally, if you just want to listen to me talk it out, then I’ve made an episode of A Diet of Brussels on all of this. Incidentally, I note I’m coming up to the tenth anniversary of the pod and I really didn’t think back then we’d be thinking about these kinds of things: I was right to think that we’d be banging on about Europe though.

Small victories, I guess.

And all of this is very much up in the air: would love to get your feedback on any or all of this as we proceed.

The post Circling the wagons appeared first on Ideas on Europe.

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