Agrégateur de flux

Die dritte UN-Konferenz zur Entwicklungsfinanzierung im Juli 2015 in Addis Abeba soll den Weg für die Verwirklichung der Post-2015-Entwicklungsagenda ebnen. Die Serie „Finanzierung globaler Entwicklung“ der „Analysen und Stellungnahmen“ analysiert wichtige finanzielle und nicht-finanzielle Maßnahmen zur Realisierung der neuen Ziele nachhaltiger Entwicklung (Sustainable Development Goals – SDGs) und diskutiert Bausteine für einen neuen globalen Rahmen der Entwicklungsfinanzierung.

Die Vorbereitungen auf die nächste Konferenz zeigen, dass Konzept, Bereitstellung und Monitoring öffentlicher Entwicklungszusammenarbeit (Official Development Assistance – ODA) umstritten bleiben. Die Meinungen über die künftige Rolle von ODA gehen weit auseinander: (1) Einige Empfehlungen zielen darauf ODA wieder auf Armutsreduzierung, vor allem in armen und fragilen Staaten, zu konzentrieren; (2) Andere sehen in ODA mehr den Katalysator, der andere Finanzierungsformen (besonders private) mobilisiert; (3) Wieder andere fordern die Neuausrichtung von ODA als Instrument zur Bereitstellung globaler öffentlicher Güter.

Nicht alle Ausgaben für globale öffentliche Güter (z. B. saubere Luft) können als ODA gemeldet werden. Aber es ist schwer zu entscheiden, was dennoch entwicklungsrelevant ist und was nicht. Ein Spannungsverhältnis bleibt: Die SDG Agenda zielt nicht mehr direkt auf Fortschritte in Entwicklungsländern ab. Der Fokus des ODA-Berichtssystems dagegen liegt weiterhin auf dem Ressourcentransfer von entwickelten in Entwicklungsländer.
 
Die SDG-Agenda wird eher keine konsistente Vision von globaler Entwicklungsfinanzierung abbilden, sondern Neues einführen und Altes erhalten, wo nötig. Diese „Mischvision“ wird Universalität und einen Nord-Süd-Transfer fördern und ist ein erster Schritt auf dem Weg zu einer globalen Agenda für nachhaltige Entwicklung mit universeller Gültigkeit. Die OECD ist ein Hauptbefürworter dieser Agenda und sie hat sich immer politisch und technisch stark für das ODA-Konzept und sein Statistiksystem engagiert. Die Gestaltung einer neuen Messgröße für die Öffentliche Gesamtleistung zur Förderung Nachhaltiger Entwicklung (Total Official Support for Sustainable Development – TOSSD) und die Debatte über die Finanzierung globaler öffentlicher Güter über ODA hinaus hat sie allerdings bislang vernachlässigt. Hier bedarf es eines verstärkten Engagements, da TOSSD zunehmend diskutiert wird.
Im Prinzip haben alle Teilnehmer von Addis Abeba ein weiter gefasstes Verständnis von „Entwicklungsfinanzierung“, das alle relevanten Finanzbeiträge aller Akteure ein-schließt. Dennoch wird ODA auf der Konferenz ein zentrales Thema bleiben. Das Monitoring von ODA-Beiträgen ist weiterhin notwendig. Für die neue globale Entwicklungsagenda ist indes wichtig, dass das jetzige System die Berichterstattung über Finanzbeiträge zunehmend in den Dienst der unterschiedlichen Akteure und ihrer Bemühungen stellt, Ergebnisse durch gemeinsame Rechenschaftspflicht zu gewährleisten. Ein wichtiger Schritt wäre die Ergänzung der aktuell Geber-zentrierten ODA-Berichterstattung durch Berichte der Entwicklungsländer über entwicklungsrelevante externe Mittelzuflüsse durch das UN High Level Political Forum.

Der G7-Gipfel in Elmau ist für die G7-Mitgliedsstaaten die Gelegenheit, sich für den Erfolg der wichtigsten multilateralen Konferenzen des Jahres 2015 einzusetzen, die sich mit den Themen Entwicklungsfinanzierung (Addis Abeba), Agenda für nachhaltige Entwicklung (New York) und Klimawandel (Paris) befassen. Wir erkennen Handlungsmöglichkeiten auf drei Ebenen:

• In den eigenen Ländern sollten die Mitglieder der G7 Veränderungen mit globalen Auswirkungen anstoßen: (i) Die Staats- und Regierungschefs der G7 sollten sich verpflichten, nationale und fristgebundene Umsetzungspläne für die Post-2015-Agenda zu erarbeiten, die mit nationalen Prozessen verknüpft sind, zum Beispiel Politiken und Strategien nachhaltiger Entwicklung. Sie sollten (ii) Wegbereiter nachhaltiger Konsum- und Produktionsmuster sein und (iii) konkretisieren, wie sie auf nationaler Ebene zur Begrenzung der Erderwärmung auf 2°C beitragen wollen.
• In Ländern mit niedrigem (LICs) und mittlerem Einkommen (MICs) sollte die G7 nachhaltige Entwicklung fördern: (i) Sie sollte die öffentlichen Gesundheitssysteme in LICs stärker unterstützen und helfen, einen Gesundheitsnotfallfonds einzurichten. Sie sollte (ii) ihre Zusagen bekräftigen, öffentliche Gelder (einschließlich Klimafinanzierung und öffentliche Entwicklungsleistungen [Official Development Assistance – ODA] für globale Zwecke) bereitzustellen und diese konkretisieren und (iii) die Entwicklung und den Transfer von Technologien in LICs und MICs fördern.
•  Auf internationaler Ebene sollte die G7 das Prinzip „globale Regeln für globale Gemeinschaftsgüter“ stärken: (i) Die G7 sollte die internationale Finanzarchitektur reformieren. Sie sollte (ii) die Reform des internationalen Steuersystems vorantreiben, indem sie multilaterale Vereinbarungen fördert, die die internationale Zusammenarbeit von Steuerbehörden verbessern. Und sie sollte (iii) ein für Entwicklungsländer förderliches internationales Handelssystem stärken, das eine entwicklungsfreundliche Transatlantische Handels- und Investitionspartnerschaft (TTIP) und eine Transpazifische Partnerschaft (TPP) umfasst.

Die Post-2015-Agenda für nachhaltige Entwicklung bekräftigt die universelle Gültigkeit der Menschenrechte und anderer Grundwerte der G7. Der Vorschlag für die Ziele nachhaltiger Entwicklung (SDGs) mag nicht perfekt sein. Aber er könnte Auslöser jenes kollektiven Handelns sein, das zur Erhaltung und Sicherung des Wohlstands und Wohlergehens heutiger und künftiger Generationen innerhalb der Grenzen unseres Planeten so notwendig ist. Zudem ist die Agenda für nachhaltige Entwicklung ein Beispiel dafür, wie sich gemeinsame Probleme lösen lassen: in einer auf Regeln beruhenden Partnerschaft, gestützt auf die Werte Fairness, Gerechtigkeit und gemeinsame, aber differenzierte Verantwortung. Die G7 muss ihren Teil zum Gelingen der Verhandlungen beitragen.

A német kormányban azon gondolkodtak 2011-ben, hogy Oroszországtól kérjenek pénzt a görög mentőcsomagra. Merkel már akkor is kételkedett benne, hogy a görög gazdaságban lesz elég kraft a törlesztésekre. Amerikai hírszerzési anyagokat közölt a Wikileaks.

ARI 34/2015 - 2/7/2015
Iliana Olivié y Manuel Gracia
En este documento analizamos los principales resultados de la edición 2014 (y cambios respecto de la del año pasado) del Índice Elcano de Presencia Global. Dicho índice ordena 80 países según la medida en la que los países están “ahí fuera”, moldeando y participando en el proceso de globalización.

Italian Alenia Aermacchi (SIAI MArchetti) SF.260 Trainer Aircraft

http://tvnewsroom.consilium.europa.eu/uploads/council-images/thumbs/uploads/council-images/remote/http_7e18a1c646f5450b9d6d-a75424f262e53e74f9539145894f4378.r8.cf3.rackcdn.com/eu2015_lv_cmyk_190_thumb_169_1420734996_1420734808_129_97shar_c1.png

The Latvian Presidency of the Council of the European Union takes over on 1 January 2015.

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Après avoir longtemps laissé entendre qu’il envisageait de prendre le contrôle des chantiers navals STX France, basés à Saint Nazaire et à Lorient, le conglomérat sud-coréen Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) vient d’indiquer qu’il ne serait finalement pas candidat à une reprise des 66,7% de l’entreprise aujourd’hui détenus par la Korea Development Bank (KDB). L’Etat français, qui détient, lui, par le biais de Bpifrance, 33,4% de la société, va devoir aider à la recherche d’un autre acheteur potentiel dans ce dossier qui tarde à être solutionné. 
Pour justifier, hier, à l’occasion d’une conférence de presse, son refus d’engager son entreprise dans une nouvelle acquisition, Jung Sung-Leep, qui vient tout juste d’être nommé à la tête de DSME, le deuxième plus gros constructeur naval coréen, a indiqué que l’équilibre financier de son groupe n’était pas encore pleinement rétabli. “Il est trop tôt pour nous pour dépenser des ressources dans la construction de navires de croisière”, a expliqué le PDG. “Nous devons plutôt nous concentrer sur nos trois activités principales qui sont les navires de marchandises high-tech, les plateformes offshore ainsi que les sous-marins ou les autres types de bâtiments militaires”.
Ayant longtemps travaillé au sein de STX Europe, l’ancienne maison mère de STX France, qui a depuis été démantelée suite à la restructuration du conglomérat coréen STX, le PDG a dressé un tableau plutôt optimiste pour l’avenir des chantiers français. Il a ainsi rappelé que STX France était profitable. Après une période plus incertaine, les chantiers français ont reçu, depuis 2014, plusieurs grosses commandes. SMC fait ainsi construire par STX France deux paquebots de croisière. Et les opérateurs Royal Caribbean et American Celebrity viennent, eux aussi, de commander des navires au constructeur.
Ayant longtemps semblé privilégier une solution entre acteurs coréens, la KDB qui a besoin, pour des raisons financières, de céder ses parts dans STX France va devoir reprendre sa recherche d’un repreneur avec les banques d’affaires qui portent le dossier de reprise. D’autres candidats, notamment les chantiers italiens de Fincantieri avaient, un temps, été évoqués par la presse économique coréenne mais ils ne semblaient pas être en mesure de faire l’unanimité chez tous les actionnaires et partenaires de STX France.

 Le stress de retour à ShanghaiLa principale place financière de Chine continentale est repartie à la baisse ce matin, après une journée de jeudi qui s’était soldée par une diminution de 3,5%. A la mi-journée, ce vendredi, l’indice composite était en chute de 4,5%. Au final, le mois de juin est parti pour se solder par une baisse d’un peu plus de 1%, ce qui ne s’était pas vu depuis l’installation, début 2014, d’un climat d’enthousiasme, puis d’euphorie, à la bourse chinoise. En fin de semaine dernière, certains analystes – en particulier ceux s’exprimant au nom d’institutions publiques chinoises –pointaient des raisons techniques à la chute de plus de 12% qu’avait encaissée Shanghai en seulement une semaine. Ils notaient, en particulier, qu’un nombre record d’introductions en bourse pénalisait le cours des actions déjà cotées, en créant une diversion pour le capital déjà investi en Bourse. D’autres, plus inquiets, avançaient l’hypothèse que l’heure du retournement avait sonné, sur une Bourse devenue totalement irrationnelle, et dont les valorisations n’avaient plus aucune relation avec les performances financières des sociétés cotées, ni avec le contexte macroéconomique chinois. En cette fin de semaine, c’est plutôt la seconde hypothèse qui gagne donc en crédibilité. Depuis quatre jours, en effet, on a assisté à un phénomène nouveau : les investisseurs qui avaient acheté des actions avec de l’argent emprunté (« trading sur marge ») ont plus revendu de titres qu’ils n’en ont acquis. Les analystes de Morgan Stanley viennent d’ailleurs de publier un rapport dans lequel ils mettent en garde contre l’hypothèse erronée selon laquelle la baisse récente serait une simple correction technique et constituerait une bonne opportunité d’achat : ils anticipent une baisse de 2% à 30% au cours des 12 prochains mois. Manifestement, ce contexte d’incertitude n’a pas encore refroidi tous les investisseurs. Guotai Junan, le principal courtier chinois, vient de procéder à sa première cotation après avoir réussi la plus grosse levée de fonds depuis 2010 en Chine. Portée par les espoirs d’une intense activité boursière au cours des prochains mois, son action s’est envolée de 44% ce matin, avant d’être suspendue de cotation, conformément à la règle en vigueur à la Bourse chinoise.Au Japon, toujours pas d’inflation mais un peu de consommationIl y a deux ans, la Banque du Japon (BoJ), poussée par le gouvernement de Shinzo Abe, enclenchait un gigantesque programme d’assouplissement quantitatif afin de sortir le pays de la déflation qui déprime les entreprises. L’institution assurait alors que la hausse des prix approcherait les 2% en 2015. Deux ans plus tard exactement, la hausse des prix à la consommation a été mesurée, en glissement annuel, en progression de 0,1% sur le mois de mai, selon les statistiques diffusées ce vendredi matin à Tokyo. Si la chute du yen, alimentée par l’assouplissement quantitatif de la BoJ, a gonflé les étiquettes des produits importés, la baisse du prix des matières premières a, elle, vivement refroidi l’inflation. Les analystes de Goldman Sachs estiment ainsi que, du fait de ces mouvements, les prix vont désormais stagner dans l’Archipel ou même légèrement décroître dans les prochains mois. S’il a échoué à mater l’ogre déflationniste, le gouvernement peut tout de même se réjouir, ce matin, d’une statistique montrant un léger réveil de la consommation des ménages, qui était en berne depuis 14 mois. En mai, les dépenses des particuliers ont ainsi progressé de 4,8%. Les analystes rappellent toutefois que ce rebond fait suite à une forte chute de la consommation sur le mois d’avril. Seules les données de juin permettront de deviner une tendance de l’état exact de la demande dans l’Archipel.
En savoir plus sur http://www.lesechos.fr/monde/asie-pacifique/021166775164-cette-nuit-en-asie-daewoo-ne-veut-plus-des-chantiers-navals-stx-france-1132018.php?ZTwHddZ85myW5UMi.99#

Az euróövezeti pénzügyminiszterek egyöntetűen elutasították, hogy a vasárnapi népszavazásig foglalkozzanak a görögökkel.

“Nhiệm Vụ Tối Mật” – “Secret Mission” 2015 by Pham Huy Thong

Just when the memories of anti-Chinese protests and rioting have started to fade among the Vietnamese, the Chinese are stoking the fires again with another salami-slicing maneuver.

Last Thursday, Beijing announced the redeployment of the deepwater oil rig Haiyang Shiyou-981 to the waters near the disputed Hoang Sa (Paracel) Islands. The placement of the rig this time around is in waters south of the Gulf of Tonkin and northwest of the Paracels, according to the website of the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration, and is expected to be operational up until August 20.

The website announcement also requested passing vessels to stay at least 2,000 meters away, perhaps fearing a repeat of last May’s confrontation, where several Vietnamese coast guard boats, fisheries surveillance ships, and fishing boats were rammed by Chinese naval vessels for coming too close to this same Chinese rig deployed offshore but within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.

This year, however, the Chinese have located the rig outside the exclusive economic zone of Vietnam, in a grey zone currently being negotiated between Vietnam and China. According to a Vietnamese Coast Guard source, should the Chinese oil rig violate Vietnam’s sovereignty, the Coast Guard would “make announcements.”  This small, possibly incremental step by Beijing can be described as “salami-slicing”, or “Salami tactics,” a term first coined by the Hungarian Communist leader Matyas Rakosi in the late 1940s to describe the destruction of the non-Communist parties by “cutting them off like slices of salami.”

The announcement of the rig’s arrival by Vietnamese media follows a visit by Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh to Beijing on June 17 to 19 for the eighth meeting of the Vietnam-China Steering Committee on Bilateral Cooperation. During the meetings, both sides agreed to use negotiations to keep territorial disputes under control, avoid any actions to complicate disputes, emphasize the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (East Vietnam Sea/West Philippine Sea) and make progress toward a Code of Conduct. Given the lack of outrage here in Vietnam over the rig’s deployment, the positioning of the Chinese rig was also likely negotiated between Hanoi and Beijing, with Beijing promising to strengthen economic, trade and investment ties.

So far, the Vietnamese people appear to have accepted the deployment of the Chinese rig, as there have been no reports of anti-Chinese protests or rioting despite media coverage. However, some Ho Chi Minh resident representatives voiced their strong opposition to China’s recent actions in the East Sea on Monday to State President Truong Tan Sang and Tran Du Lich, head of the NA delegation of the city. Residents there called for a strong, official response from the National Assembly to China’s violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty, which President Sang acknowledged has not been strong enough.

The arrival of the Chinese rig also coincides with the delivery of a fourth of six Russian-built Kilo-class submarines to Vietnam, under a $2 billion deal signed in 2009. Vietnam may be able to tolerate some salami-slicing by the Chinese, but for this tactic to work most effectively, the true long-term motives should be hidden and cooperation emphasized. Given Vietnam’s long history of successfully fighting off the Chinese, the Vietnamese are traditionally skeptical of Chinese motives and cooperation, and should Beijing choose to slice too much, history tells us the Vietnamese will be ready once again.

Photo Credit: CH’7K via Flickr

A leading naval strategist asks: Could cyberattacks actually prevent war?

In this two-part series, leading thinkers from a prior era of globalization directly inform our understanding of critical issues today. Part 1 examined the lessons for current maritime security concerns from naval strategist Alfred T. Mahan and Nobel laureate Norman Angell. Part 2 considers their competing insights into a very modern challenge: cybersecurity.

Mahan’s ideas of the late 19th century set the track for U.S. naval policy for decades, including growing and strengthening the fleet and developing reliable resupply stations worldwide. Angell described in 1909 that war had become futile as a means to enhance state power and wealth, but not impossible because men sometimes act irrationally. Each saw enormous potential from the surges of trade and technology by the turn of the 20th century. Mahan saw mostly threats; Angell saw more possible benefits.

For Angell, the extent of trade and investment created an “interdependence” among European powers, so that “war, even when victorious, could no longer achieve those aims for which peoples strive.” His ideas are found in international relations theories that developed nearly a century later: complex interdependence, democratic peace, and even constructivism. In each of these, states choose paths other than conflict-for-power and power-for-conflict. The Internet would have made perfect sense to Angell: Social networking, online commerce, and “Twitter revolutions” across borders and cultures increase national wealth, standards of living and human aspirations.

For Mahan, the analysis is more complex, and the policy implications more surprising. Mahan’s cybersecurity policies depend upon his views on “freedom of the seas” and on populations used to material comfort. Freedom of the seas popularized by Grotius’s 1609 Mare Liberum, which asserted that the high seas are open to all, especially for commerce. This idea has been supported by the American Continental Congress, Elizabeth I, Woodrow Wilson and the U.N. During the Cold War, the U.S. and USSR generally left alone one another’s seaborne trade.

But for Mahan, commerce produces the national wealth necessary for military power:

Ships and cargoes in transit upon the sea …are national wealth engaged in reproducing and multiplying itself, to the intensification of the national power…[commerce is] therefore a most proper object of attack.

Additionally, Mahan argued that modern populations had an “excessive sensitiveness” to their new wealth. Attacking international private (commercial) sea trade was actually a benefit to mankind, “more humane, and more conducive to the objects of war, than the slaughter of men.”

The lessons for cybersecurity are evident. Mahan’s realism would endorse state-on-state cyberattacks, like digital spying, Stuxnet, or degrading the military systems of a country you are planning to attack. But Mahan essentially validates cyberattacks on civilian and commercial interests as well. Where private property is the ultimate source of national power, he argues, it is a legitimate target. When populations are “exasperated by the delicacy of financial situations,” not used to widespread discomfort or “privation,” cyberattacks might be used to achieve the intended goals of the attacker without the extensive violence and casualties traditional warfare.

In this way, cyberattacks among great states might serve as proxy wars did during the Cold War: great power contests with minimal casualties to the principals. The risks of this approach then and now, of course, are multiple. Cyber casualties can still occur from economic, financial, industrial or infrastructure damage. Cyberattacks can begin or escalate a conflict which leads to kinetic warfare. Mistaken attribution of cyberattacks can widen the conflict to unrelated or unintended parties.

If Mahan is right, a number of implications follow. Countries are already developing offensive and defensive cyberstrategies – these need to be fully integrated into national security and economic means and ends. (As Peter Singer and Allan Friedman note, whether these questions are fully understood by the key decision makers remains a question.) Governments must work closely with other public and commercial organizations – preventing a cyberattack on finance, industry, and infrastructure as they would from a terrorist or traditional warfare. Many countries are already well into these kinds of discussions, including with each other. Too often though, security measures have proven inadequate. The recent U.S. government’s loss of millions of employees’ personal and security data is just the latest example. Internet security firms like Mandiant and Symantec have detailed intense ongoing efforts, not merely hypothetical ones.

The Internet offers “interdependence” far beyond what Angell could have imagined. But the natures of conflict, spying, industrial espionage, organized crime, and “attack” are all very different from what Mahan understood. By Mahan’s logic, withholding energy exports as diplomatic leverage, theft of commercial intellectual property, manipulating industrial controllers or breaches of financial institutions may be “more humane” alternatives to conventional war.

But Mahan’s logic helped lead the great powers into war.

This post and the previous one are drawn in part from J.Quirk’s article in the Mediterranean Quarterly, June 2015.

Recently, the Federation Council suggested introducing a "stop-list" for foreign NGOs in Russia that either implement political tasks to the benefit of foreign states or finance Russian NGOs for the same purpose. Let's take a look at well-known political NGOs. Many of them do not work in Russia officially anymore

Telekonferencián döntenek az új görög mentőcsomagról délután.

On 29-30 June, the second board meeting of the European Crime Prevention Network (EUCPN) took place at the National Library of Latvia. During the meeting participants discussed issues related to organised crime and how to provide support to the European authorities in combating it.

On 29-30 June, the second board meeting of the European Crime Prevention Network (EUCPN) took place at the National Library of Latvia. During the meeting participants discussed issues related to organised crime and how to provide support to the European authorities in combating it.

China’s manufacturing boom is well known; over the past 25 years the Chinese share of the value-added by the manufacturing sector worldwide has increased almost tenfold. Nor has the pace of that change eased, for in the six years since the onset of the financial crisis China’s share has still risen by more than one percentage point every year – faster therefore than in the previous 12 years. Chinese value-added manufacturing overtook the combined output of Japan and Korea in 2009, that of the United States in 2014 and by 2016 or 2017 may well surpass than of the European Union.

But China’s population is more than double that of the EU and four time that of the U.S. The value-added of its manufacturing industry would need to quadruple to achieve the same per capita output as in Europe or America. Despite the rapid advances of recent years, the Chinese economy’s resurgence may have only just begun.

Historically, China’s manufacturing has been driven by its state-owned enterprises, but their dominance began to change a quarter of a century ago with the arrival of the Chinese or foreign-owned contract processing companies that assembled products without even owning the raw materials. Along with the reform of its state-owned enterprises, China also saw foreign direct investment in manufacturing gain ground steadily, and all of these developments were aided by special tax regimes for domestic profits as well as imports.

The change in ownership of manufacturing industry became even more pronounced in the middle of the last decade when China’s constitution was changed to recognise private property, and when company law was simplified by reducing the capital needed to form an enterprise. In the six years before that change, private sector value-added had been growing three percentage points faster every year than the state-owned sector, and in the following decade the gap widened to almost five percentage points. The domestic private sector was, meanwhile, expanding in relation to companies owned by shareholders from outside the Chinese mainland.

Private sector enterprises in China’s industrial sector have achieved extremely high rates of return. Despite the international financial crisis, the average return last year on equity before tax was 25%. With high returns and low taxation, private sector manufacturing in China has generated a large number of billionaires, even when measured in U.S. dollars. Of the 58 people with identified wealth last year of over $3bn, nearly 40% had amassed their fortune in manufacturing.

Rising wages have been seen as a threat to the development of the Chinese economy, and certainly average pay has risen significantly in real terms. The pay of a migrant worker in China relative to that of an unskilled worker in the United States, let’s say as a janitor, has almost doubled since 2008. Yet an unskilled American worker still earns almost five times more than a Chinese counterpart. This rapid increase has pushed the earnings of migrant workers in China well above their average earnings in countries like Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.

The rise in migrants’ earnings has also boosted domestic demand in China. Labour intensive industries have been able to switch output to the domestic market just as their shares of export markets for products like clothing, textiles, footwear and toys had begun to stabilise or even to fall. And Chinese entrepreneurs in these industries have reacted to higher wage costs by boosting manufacturing investment. The domestic value-added of the labour intensive industries’ output has risen faster since 2008 than that of the most capital intensive industries.

China’s industrial polices have long aimed to upgrade existing industries to higher value added by moving up the global value chain. China’s industrial policies have been typified by changes in its semiconductor industry. The first policy phase attempted to create national champions, but that was a failure. In the past decade, a new set of policies encouraged foreign investment with the aim of transferring technology to China. High-tech zones were created and foreign companies offered a special tax regime. The end result has been a strong rise in the semiconductor industry’s output, but chiefly for domestic consumption. China uses over half the semiconductors produced worldwide, but its semiconductor companies account for only 2% of global sales.

The overall result is that while China is now the leading exporter of high-tech products, the impact on its local economies has not been in line with that. Around four-fifths of China’s high-tech exports are by processing companies that import and then assemble parts in China, and re-export finalised goods. The sector’s share of gross domestic value-added is less than 45%. After allowing for royalties and the profits of the foreign-owned companies, the share of high-tech exports that are genuinely Chinese is below a third.

The government introduced new guidelines for the semiconductor industry a year ago that featured a National Investment Fund with a capital of just under $20bn. It is to be used for capital injections and to aid consolidation amongst Chinese companies, and some provincial governments are expected to create their own funds along the same lines. The objective is to raise overall Integrated Circuits (IC) production by 20% a year by 2020.

Chinese firms have struggled to enter the main semiconductor industry, but a number are making headway in communication devices. The boom in low-cost smart-phones from Chinese manufactures such as Huawei, Xiaomi, ZTE and Coolpad has been built on local semiconductor design companies specialising in communication chips.

Another key development has been the new foreign investment law and related regulations making it easier foreign companies to invest. The new law means investors will no longer have to obtain pre-approval before setting up a company, unless the investment is in a restricted area and on a negative list. China’s revised list of restricted or prohibited industries is now limited to only some mining areas, utilities, energy, finance and automobiles. From a European or American point of view, the main disappointment has been the placing on the restricted list of joint ventures in automobile production, and significant restrictions also remain in the finance sector.

The joint venture requirement for automobiles is designed to ensure technology transfers needed for a Chinese car industry. Allowing foreign companies to produce cars in China has been a major success, with vehicle production three times greater than before the 2008 onset of the western financial crisis, making it significantly larger than in North America or the EU. Although the Chinese sometimes claim that their six major companies account for 85% of domestic sales, the fact is that 70% of these domestically produced cars are from foreign joint ventures. Only one in six of the cars attributed to China’s six major automobile companies is produced by the Chinese partner. China’s car exports are insignificant because of poor productivity, design and quality.

The joint venture structure has also failed to yield technology transfers as foreign partners keep the JV separate from their Chinese partner, which will generally provide senior staff for marketing, human relations and government relations while the foreign partner contributes the engineering and technical staff. To overcome this problem, the Beijing government has insisted that JVs produce a Chinese model, with the JV partners responding by re-badging models from their global model portfolio not yet produced in China. To differentiate such products from their foreign brands, prices were set at a level competitive with domestic Chinese models. Consumers then turned to the new cheap JV brands and so accentuated the decline in the market share of the domestic Chinese producers.

The major industrial policy successes in the upgrading of its manufacturing industries have so far been confined to areas where both producer and the purchaser companies are state-owned, rather than by selling to consumers. Key examples are high-speed trains and wind turbines, and even in these areas, as with semiconductor foundries, there have been allegations of intellectual property theft, with severe penalties sometimes imposed.

China’s aircraft industry falls between the automobile and railways sectors as an industrial policy success. The Chinese government has long wanted an aircraft industry capable of competing on world markets, but so far no Chinese commercial aircraft has obtained foreign type approval. China’s development of new aircraft is running well behind schedule, highlighting the lack of advanced engineers.

Human capital is key factor to all forms of innovation. China’s physical capital is quickly renewed and replaced and half of the capital stock in its manufacturing industry is less than three years old. But human capital takes much longer, and although the human capital stock has grown rapidly, achieving the average education levels of advanced countries will take decades. This lack of experienced and qualified managers is reflected in a growing number of research projects where quality is lagging.

Chinese manufacturing has expanded rapidly over the past two decades, but is still far from being a mature, advanced sector. Rapid wage increases have put pressure on traditional labour intense industries, even though they are adapting. Return on equity remains high, dropping only slightly in the recent downturn, and that provides an incentive for the private sector to increase investment. In labour intensive sectors, investment is still increasing at a rapid pace, suggesting that private entrepreneurs who are responsible for nearly 90% of that investment are moving away from labour intensive production so as to remain competitive.

The fundamental factor affecting China’s drive to upgrade manufacturing will be the rate at which well-educated engineers graduate from universities at home and abroad. That can already be seen in areas where knowledge evolves most rapidly, such as communications and internet applications. But it will take time for a new generation of engineers to make a difference. The best industrial policy for China is that it announced in 2013 of letting the market decide on the allocating of resources.

 

IMAGE CREDIT: CC / FLICKR – The.Rohit

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Although there is a strong element of grievance in the politics of populism, one factor which is common to almost all of the continent’s populist parties is an anti-EU sentiment. It is the degree of this – and fundamentally its effect on governments – which is causing most concern among mainstream parties.

A fanciful book, Apocalypse 2000, written in 1987, features the use of the European Parliament as a continental political platform for a populist Left/Right demagogue elected in Britain – Olaf D. Le Rith (Adolf Hitler) – who eventually seizes power across Europe. With centrist parties like the British Conservatives giving ground to populists at home and now across Europe, we should all be watchful. Let’s look at some of the most recent, worrying developments.

The populist challenge to the UK

In the UK’s May general election, the eurosceptic UK Independence Party (UKIP) came second in 120 of the 650 constituencies and third in the popular vote, garnering nearly 4 million votes, although it won only a single seat. David Cameron’s tour of EU capitals seeking a redefinition of the UK’s relationship with the EU does not stem from any conviction on his part – Cameron has always been content-free on Europe – it comes about because of his fear of UKIP, and of the hardline eurosceptics in his own party.

I was involved in a minor skirmish at the beginning of the Conservatives’ European turmoil when, as leader of the 36 Conservative members of the European Parliament in 1999, I was tasked with negotiating a more detached relationship with the Christian Democrat/Conservative European People’s Party (EPP) Group. Ten years later, David Cameron, under yet more pressure from the Right, pulled the Conservatives out of the EPP and created the European Conservatives and Reformists group with nationalists like Poland’s Law and Justice and controversial fringe parties such as Alternative for Germany (AfD), to which Cameron’s grouping now gives credibility. I left the Conservative Party in protest. Cameron’s split with the mainstream only adds to his negotiating task ahead of the UK’s EU membership referendum. Within the EPP, he would have had direct access to most of the EU’s top leadership in Brussels and national capitals.

The populist challenge to Europe

The rise of populism, especially on Europe’s Right, began to cause international concern after the European Parliamentary election of 2009, when Time magazine’s cover story, ‘Far Right Turn’, argued that “extremist parties in Europe are feeding off the economic crisis and the loss of trust in mainstream politics to extend their reach”. In May of last year, following the next and even more shocking European election, Time wrote, ”Anti-E.U. populists may have scored big at the ballot box, but they’re wrong on foreign policy”; not just wrong, but dangerous.
By last summer, one-third of the 750-member European Parliament was of the Right, largely a consequence of the continuing eurozone crisis and economic stagnation across much of Europe.  A new phenomenon had also emerged: populism of the Left, represented notably by Greece’s Syriza and Podemos (‘We can’), a Spanish party founded in early 2014 based on the radical Indignados movement. The success of Podemos in Spain’s recent regional and local elections, coupled with the success of the anti-establishment Ciudadanos movement, has shattered previous expectations for the general election later this year.

The populist opportunity for Putin

While Europe’s mainstream was anxious, these results encouraged Vladimir Putin’s international ambitions. His developing support for populist parties of Left and Right came into its own over his annexation of Crimea, which many supported. Putin’s strategy is based on his continental ‘Eurasian Union’, the brainchild of Moscow guru Aleksandr Dugin. Decrying liberalism, the aim is to break up the EU, sever transatlantic links and promote nationalism. Marine Le Pen is the most prominent of a troupe of populist or extremist leaders to visit Russia or Crimea. Tellingly, a resolution criticising Russia in the European Parliament on the 10th of June drew out these populist parties. UKIP and the Front National teamed up with other anti-EU parties to vote against the non-binding resolution, which ultimately passed by 494 votes against 135 with 69 abstentions.

Like the totalitarian dictators of the 1930s who funded foreign populist movements, whether Mussolini, Hitler, or indeed Stalin’s early funding of Hitler through Kurt von Schleicher, Time magazine’s ‘Man of the Year’ in 1932, Putin has been funding today’s extremists. Last November, French investigative journalists revealed that the Front National have received at least €9 million in loans from a Kremlin-linked bank. German media and the Austrian opposition say the AfD and the far-Right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) are also financed by Russia; allegations they each deny. And in Greece, Putin’s funding of the neo-Fascist Golden Dawn did not stop Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras making Moscow his first port of call as premier, resurrecting old geostrategic fears.

Reversing the trend

German political scientist Florian Hartleb, who specialises in the rise of populism, has written that “while there is no incontrovertible proof that demystification through participation in government is an effective strategy for successfully combating Right-wing populists, there is no doubt that the worst response strategy is ‘toleration’ because this allows populists directly to exert influence on a country’s political decision-making without being directly held to account for it.”

Polish columnist Paweł Świeboda has called for more pro-EU activism, saying “Much of the frustration of European citizens has to do with the policy that originates in Brussels. The institutions have tended to assume that they are bound to be on the virtuous side and their case will prevail. They have feared becoming embroiled in national party political squabbles. This strategy has run its course and will need to be replaced by more active messaging.”

What we can be clear about is that far-Right populism will not disappear of its own volition. Ms le Pen has recently announced the formation of a new Europe of Nations and Freedom group in the European Parliament. This gives her a front row seat and her far-Right team a platform, and €17.5m of public money over four years. As le Pen put it, “far more firepower than ever before”.

 

IMAGE CREDIT: CC / FLICKR – European Parliament

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Date: Mardi 08 Septembre 2015Description: L'Institut Montaigne vous invite aux Entretiens de la cohésion sociale, événement organisé annuellement avec August & Debouzy et Entreprise&Personnel, à la Maison de la Chimie.Adresse: Maison de la Chimie - 28, rue Saint-Dominique 75007 Paris