Diplomacy & Crisis News

Transformer radicalement nos rapports au vivant : l'idée progresse à mesure que les scientifiques étayent le lien de causalité entre les actions humaines et les catastrophes écologiques. Penser une plante, un animal, une montagne comme un sujet d'altérité à part entière est une « révolution mentale » à (...) / Animal, Écologie, Environnement - 2022/11

China’s licensed produced and updated French Crotale missile system, the HQ-7B took the stage in 2009…a similar system used to protect venues during the Olympics at the time. The last military parade in China was held in 2009 to mark the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. (Vincent Thian / Associated Press)

Early September will bring Beijing to a halt as China’s allies come for one of the most pivotal global military presentations since 2009. With the War in Ukraine likely entering its next phases of capabilities and China, Russia and North Korea now fighting side by side on the fields of Europe’s most deadly conflicts since the Second World War, China has chosen to flex its muscles and demonstrate its military in a grand show of power.

Despite heavy losses of Russian, North Korean and some Chinese independent combat troops in Ukraine, the recent air spat between Pakistan and India had the West take notice. The capabilities of Chinese produced weapons systems were always in question, but when Chinese J-10 Fighters of the PAF were able to destroy and damage some of India’s best Rafale Fighters, Europe and the United States took notice of the jet, and its advanced Chinese missile systems. This pivotal 2025 conflict for China’s weapons industry came after years of Russian export sales decline after systems were seen as too vulnerable in the field and supply was routed back to support Russia’s war effort. Since the end of the Cold War, Russian weapons production focused on export sales of systems, licensing and technology of Russian produced systems, supplying a multitude of nations, including large clients like India. China now has its sales pitch to expand its weapons sales deep into the Global South, displacing Russia where it can with capable low cost platforms.

The September Parade celebrating historical triumphs has a few core purposes besides demonstrating national strength and re-enforcing ties with its allies. Weapons sales may come from new and advanced systems making their debut during the Parade, with the movement of systems being surprisingly uncovered while they make their way through Chinese streets towards the capital. The knowledge that international intelligence agencies as well as prospective buyers will take notice is evident by the openness in exposing new systems to the world. A new tank and weapons platform that looks to be designed for the conditions present in Ukraine is a likely outcome from China’s men on the ground in combat, experience that can often only be gained in a real world scenarios. Knowledge of NATO combat systems was likely possessed by China due to naive Western leader’s ties to the PLA before the start of the 2022 war, but would be re-enforced by knowledge gains from captured NATO Leopard 2s and Bradleys. Even in North Korea during a recent ceremony for fallen soldiers in Ukraine, they claimed that losses have great value as capabilities through combat experience was well noted in speeches by their leadership. What is clear is that this parade is the most significant display of new military equipment since China’s re-introduction to the world in 2008.

The new Generation of China’s post Ukraine War equipment comes as a new phase in global power dynamics shrouds the international security situation. Without a solidified end to the War in Ukraine, chances are that China and Russia will develop closer ties, with China becoming the main power rival of the West as Russia diminishes in its global influence economically. The past phase of the growing China came about in the 2008-2009 era when economic gains and prosperity brought China to the economic level of its financial rivals post joining of the WTO. The famous presentation of new combat systems in the 2009 Military Parade showed the modernity of China’s PLA, with China’s now dated 2009 systems still being some of the more advanced and newest mass produced combat equipment available in large numbers of any major military power.

The past generation of China’s military equipment would alter the balance of power due to capability and number if China chose to sell its older tank and artillery fleets to supply the battlefield in Ukraine. Even if China avoided selling its 2009 era modern ZTZ-99 tanks, the sale of ZTZ-96s and PLZ artillery types would match many modern T-72Bs and older Soviet made 2S1s, 2S3s and 2S5s used by both sides. With the new Generation 2025 tank likely displacing the older unit’s equipments, a lower calibre on the modern tank may show it is meant for the Indian border region or to focus on Taiwan, with anti-drone technology and designs matching the ultra modern Russian T-14 Armata platform. Whatever the intent of China and its allies, it is clear that this demonstration of weapons is one promoting strength in an era where most other large militaries have depleted equipment levels and old technology at the core of their armies. Peace agreements are crucial at this juncture, but it might be the case that it is not wanted in Ukraine at this time by one or either side.

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The West Bengal government canceled the event to avoid ruffling the feathers of Muslim hardliners.