Diplomacy & Crisis News

Vintage set icons of ballot box for presidential election in USA . Elections 2024. Vote.

One month into the New Year, and we can already confirm that the rumors are true- 2024 will be a precedent setting year …. One might say that we enter the year between a rock and a hard place.  Major conflicts rage on multiple fronts and along multiple planes. Literal fighting continues to take place in Ukraine and the Middle East. A different sort of battle is taking place which will impact the standing of global democracy and the enduring power of important international bodies. Each one of these tension points has the potential to upset the global apple cart- sudden shocks along multiple fronts would be even more disruptive.

The uptick in global violence, exemplified by the warfare in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza, represent a worrying deviation from a decades long trend of increasingly peaceful relations. Each of these conflicts has taken a tremendous toll on combatants and non-combatants alike- some 10,000 civilians have been killed in Ukraine, alongside the over 25,000 Palestinians and roughly 2,000 Israeli civilians who have fallen in the fighting. Beyond the overwhelming loss of life and human potential that has already taken place, these conflicts both appear durable and come with serious downstream risks. 

The current state of affairs in Ukraine, baring a dramatic shift on the ground following the deployment of F-16s, suggests a momentumless and prolonged conflict. Even if we can limit our considerations exclusively to the facts on the ground, neither the Ukrainians nor the Russians appear satisfied with resolving the conflict in accordance with the military positioning as it is today. Once we allow ourselves to remember that other leaders with revisionist objectives are observing the existing power’s reaction to Russian aggression, the position becomes even more tenuous. 

The prospects that Ukraine maintains the whole of its territorial integrity appear increasingly dim, especially given the trajectory of American politics, yet rewarding aggression with territorial expansion sets a worrisome precedent.  A hypothetical “save face” outcome in which Ukraine gains NATO membership in exchange for ceding the currently occupied territories to Russia, feels unsatisfying for all parties involved.

The conflict in Gaza appears similarly intractable  given the current state of leadership both in Israel and in Palestine. Just as it feels increasingly uncontroversial to say that Benjamin Netenyahu’s time in office appears to be coming to an end, so too has it become increasingly clear that the military component of Hamas ought not serve as the de facto government in Gaza. Even as the establishment of a Palestinian state and the integration of existing political organizations in Gaza appear fundamental in order to secure a lasting peace, the military wing of Hamas is unsuited for that role. If more moderate leadership is able to rise in both camps, the international community appears ready to endorse a reimagined status quo in the Middle East.

Just as these conflicts will test the resolve of individual nations, so too will prominent international institutions be measured by their ability to mediate resolutions. In the very same moment during which entrenched powers would like to depend on well respected international bodies, the United Nations finds itself racked with controversy. Israeli political leaders have alleged that dozens of employees in the UNRWA participated in the October 7th attacks. This leaves American policy makers with the difficult choice of either working to reform the complicated UN bureaucracy or stepping away from an institution that long served as a pillar of Liberal values on the world stage. 

Despite the current moment of tension between American policymakers and the UN, the United States has proven itself capable of working within the United Nations framework to pursue American interests. This was on display in 2022 when the United States led an overwhelming diplomatic effort to denounce the Russian invasion of Ukraine. When the United States and the United Nations speak with one voice, their power is mutually reinforcing. American policy makers would be wise to strike the balance between unilateral actions abroad and respect for the international bodies that reinforce an American lead world order. 

Hanging over all of this is the opportunity, and the vulnerability, that comes with the some 4 billion people scheduled to vote in global elections in the coming year. The victory of the independent-leaning Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwanese elections resulted in less disruption- to date- than might have been expected, but there is no guarantee that similar calm would follow other hotly contested elections.The trajectory of American presidential elections will influence how voters in India and Mexico think about their economic and material security- offering an opportunity either for a coming together of international democracies or the further fracturing of the Postwar order.

Given all of this turbulence, and given all that is at stake in the coming months, it is more important now than ever for increased attentiveness to international affairs, and for those of us living in Liberal Democracies, increased concern for the health of our political institutions. 

To paraphrase one of my compatriots in the foreign policy arena, let’s hope that 2024 does not become a year which must not be named. 

—

Peter Scaturro is the Director of Studies at the Foreign Policy Association.

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A picture of severely damaged Russian Il-22 command aircraft at Anapa Airport. – Giorgi Revishvili on X.com – Jan 15 2024.

 

The Russia-Ukraine War was never going to become a one off, short term, easily achievable event. Ukraine was equipped, trained and armed to be the defense line for the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and every aspect of their defence network and training was created to repel similar attacks like those that traumatised the Soviets during the Second World War. While many of us in the West were discovering home computers and Nintendo, Soviet engineers were designing defensive surface to air weapons and missiles and producing ever more accurate artillery systems that could be used by any Soviet citizen with little training. When Russia advanced in force into Ukraine, the conflict became one where those trained as the home guard to the Soviet Union, invaded those trained to defend the territory from such an advance. Years later, the conflict is still progressing with old technology being aided by new technology, and old equipment being refurbished from as far back as the 1960s in order to achieve modern objectives. Both sides are in a race to obtain as many artillery shells as possible, while dedicating their advanced missile systems towards specialised targets.

Russia has recently taken to creating additional artillery units out of two unique weapons systems from the early 80s Cold War era. Russia has taken their 203mm artillery system, the 2S7 Pion and advanced the systems on the battlefield. One of the world’s largest mortar systems, the 240mm 2S4 Tulypan is also being increasingly advanced into greater service along with the 2S7 Pion in an apparent effort to saturate targets with some of the largest shells used in conflict to date. Speculation has risen to the strategy behind specifically using and promoting these two older system, where the 122mm 2S1 and 152mm 2S3 and 2S19 are likely compatible with foreign sourced North Korean and Chinese ammo replacing Russian artillery stockpiles. While both Ukraine and Russia use the 2S7 Pion and perhaps the 2S4 Tulypan, extended use of these systems, with their unique long barrels and high pressure ammunition, wear out the barrels after a certain number of shots. Older equipment is often used to source replacements that are no longer being manufactured, so it was thought that any of these systems in storage were being used as barrel replacements for active units. With modern targeting using drone technology and advanced mapping systems, older systems have been able to achieve a more accurate and timely firing solution, and with the enormous shells being used by these two veteran systems, the effectiveness is greatly improved.

My suspicion is that since North Korea and China do not possess either of these systems, and that 122mm and 152mm shells are being depleted rapidly, both the 2S7 and 2S4 have been advanced into battle as their unique ammunition is still present for those specific systems. While putting out a message of strength that two of the largest calibre systems are advancing to the front, the possible shortage of the more common 122mm and 152mm ammo may have lead to the decision to use up whatever 203mm and 240mm mortar shells exist in their inventory until the Pions and Tulypans use up all remaining stocks or all remaining barrels. The confusing count on the number of such systems in active duty and in storage from just two years ago may be a sign of this show of strength strategy in 2024.

While Russia has taken great strides in promoting an image of strength in their conflict in Ukraine, the loss of two important strategic assets to unidentified missile systems has sparked great interest by those on both sides of the conflict. Recently a IL-22M was severely damaged by at least one missile, and an A-50 Mainstay AWACS type aircraft was shot down around the Sea of Azov, some distance from the front line. This version of the IL-22 was used to coordinate ground forces in the region, while the A-50 operated as an AWACS system, coordinating air and anti-air assets in the region using its extended radar system and communications network with all forces in the area. While the IL-22M was able to land with causalities, the valuable A-50 was lost, and with no easily accessed means to eject from the large A-50 aircraft, the crew was likely lost as well. Some speculation was that this was a friendly fire incident, but with the A-50 being one of the main sources of communications and command for any missiles fired in the area, this is not likely the case. In the case of an anti-air systems targeting either aircraft, systems such as the TOR and BUK operate in a network where each unit has a tracking and targeting radar in each unit or nearby, married to a local command post that is linked to a regional command post that is further linked to higher command units that likely involve at least the A-50, if not the IL-22M as well. Incidents like that of Iran’s shooting down of Flight 752 using two TOR-M1 missiles likely also would not be an accident due to the high level of integration and command over all units and each unit having a high level of information available to them when operating the site via their two TOR radars and shared information. With little information made available, a picture of the tail of the IL-22M has been made public, showing damaged that appears to be fragments from a missile strike similar to damage seen on the remains of Flight 752.

The loss of these two valuable and limited assets in the air will reduce information available to Russian forces on possible aircraft and missiles entering their secured zone. With so many advanced air defence systems in the region, aircraft have not been used in great numbers by either side, with cruise missiles and drones taking their place so far in the conflict. In any such scenario, the radars are usually the first targets as it can eliminate or incapacitate a firing unit from finding their targets. As seen in Yemen recently and during the Iraq War, radars are target number one before any coordinated advance can take shape during a conflict.

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Keeping its edge over China will require U.S. investment in innovation abroad.

Today’s regional conflicts resemble the ones that produced World War II.