Foreign Policy Blogs

During a conference at the Paris Business School on October 30th , 2024, prominent experts and politicians gathered to discuss the growing threat of nuclear escalation in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Amid increasing concerns over the worsening geopolitical tensions, attendees warned of the risk of nuclear war between NATO and Russia, with almost all nuclear deterrence agreements between the U.S. and Russia currently suspended.   The conference was opened by Professor Frédéric Encel ,the chair of the conference who introduced the debate. Msgr. Vittorio Formenti, an influential representative of the Vatican, spoke out strongly against the dangers of nuclear war, recalling the horrors of Hiroshima. Formenti emphasized Pope Francis’s call for peace, warning of the devastating consequences of war and stressing that dialogue is the only path to a sustainable solution.   Jeffrey Sachs: Ukraine crisis fueled by NATO expansion   American economist Jeffrey Sachs then took the floor, arguing that NATO’s eastward expansion has played a significant role in the conflict. Sachs stressed that direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow are essential to prevent further escalation. He warned that the economic impact of the Ukraine conflict is already taking a severe toll on Europe, with an estimated $10 trillion projected to be spent on defense in the EU over the next decade.   Manel Msalmi on the impact on women and children   Manel Msalmi, president of the European Association for the Defense of Minorities, highlighted the effect of the war on women and children, who make up the vast majority of refugees fleeing Ukraine. She called for protecting their rights and warned that further escalation could have devastating consequences for future generations. Msalmi noted that recent statements by Ukrainian President Zelensky which show his concern about the difficult situation in his country, could be misinterpreted as encouraging escalation and the need to advocate for diplomatic solutions.   Gaidz Minassian and Gerard Chaliand: different perspectives, shared call for peace   French political scientist Gerard Chaliand, winner of the 2024 PUFF Geopolitical Book Prize, voiced sharp criticism of European leaders who he believes are blindly following U.S. strategy mainly Biden administration. He argued that a peace solution is not only inevitable but urgently needed. Gaidz Minassian from Le Monde offered a different view on the origins of the conflict and stressed the fact that Russia is the aggressor and the EU needs to support Ukraine but joined the call for diplomatic solutions in order to avoid further escalation.    An urgent call for peace and stability   The Paris conference highlighted the growing danger of nuclear conflict resulting from the war in Ukraine and underscored diplomacy and dialogue as the only solution. The influential speakers left no doubt about the need for international cooperation to prevent further escalation and ensure a safe future.   Paris, Ukraine, Conflict, Diplomacy, Nuclear Threat   Experts and politicians in Paris sound the alarm over the threat of nuclear war and call for urgent diplomatic efforts.

A phenomenon was noticed during the Second World War that certain shapes affected the ability for early radar to detect aircraft. When considering the material of the aircraft, it was also noticed that non-metallic materials like wood added to the reduced detection by radar. While this effect was not utilised in any major way until the science was applied to prototypes during the 1980s, it was a continuation of a long standing rivalry between aircraft and anti-air technologies throughout the Cold War.

One of the most well known rivalries of the early Cold War came from a famous incident where an SA-2 Anti-Aircraft missile was able to shoot down an American U-2 Spy Plane over the Soviet Union in 1960. The U-2 was designed to fly over enemy airspace at extremely high altitude, where most aircraft and anti-aircraft missile systems could not hit the U-2. While it was assumed that the radar could see the U-2, it was believed that the missile could not reach the aircraft. To their surprise, the SA-2 was able to reach the spy plane and knock it down, proving that even early missiles could eliminate aircraft hiding well above the target.

The SA-2 would earn much of its added fame by terrorising American attack aircraft over Vietnam in the 1960s and into the 1970s. Special “Wild Weasel” missions were formed in order to distract the SA-2 radar operators from targeting the bombers by using trained pilots to encourage the SA-2’s to fire at them in their more well equipped planes. These planes often used electronic jamming equipment along with piloting skills to evade SA-2 missiles, later using an anti-radar “Shrike” missile that tracked the radar beam from the SAM radar site. The next systems to be presented were the SA-3 Goa and SA-6 Kub systems, used in the Middle East conflicts of the 70s and early 80s, they were eventually met with the first drones that added non-lethal targets to the radar screen with the intent to deplete the 3-missile launchers of the SA-6’s mobile firing units.

Stealth technology during the 1991 Gulf War enabled the first F-117 bombers to succeed in their missions without any losses. It was surprising that just a few years later, one F-117 was shot down by an older SA-3 Goa missile over Yugoslavia. Stealth was designed to not go above a missile shield nor to go through it rapidly at low altitude, but as a means to cloak an aircraft from detection. If a radar cannot lock on a plane, a missile cannot be launched to intercept the target, and the attacking plane has a better chance at eliminating the radar site at closer range. Stealth did not make the planes invisible at all ranges however, and repeat tactics likely could lead to the loss of an advanced aircraft.

So what have we learned about the recent Radar War from the lessons of the Cold War and the loss of the F-117? Much like the past generations of missiles, new improvements to Stealth technology from the F-117 to F-22, B-2 and F-35 have been competing with more powerful radars that are designed to detect the detectable Stealth aircraft at closer ranges. The modern “Shrike”, or anti-radar missiles currently match or exceed S-300 and S-400 Missile detection and firing distances when Stealth is able to close the range of the massive radar site for the S-300 sites. While the S-300 and S-400 can likely see an F-35 coming, it likely has difficulty in locking on to the target so a missile could destroy an F-35. This is not only due to the F-35’s stealth design and materials, but because of electronic countermeasures and powerful radars as well as assistance from conventional planes, decoys and drones in the mission process. This information of course has not been made fully public, but it is likely the case that other hacking, electronic interference and intelligence assets also burdened the latest S-300 units before they were neutralised. Interceptor aircraft are also used of course, but their missiles will also have a reduced firing range against a Stealth intruder, with the F-35 having speed as another valuable asset in its suite of capabilities.

It is not clear where the next evolution will come from, but it looks to involve drone and missile swarms that are already being challenged by newer systems. The use of AI and more powerful radars will outpace human operators of many of these systems. A Vietnam Shrike situation taking out the radar crew may become less likely as systems become more spread out and automated. As older systems prevail in many regions, overburdened and under-trained operators may become the perpetrators of negligence, as seen in the downing of two civilian airliners, one over Ukraine and another over Iran in the last few years. Energy weapons have entered the battlefield as well, but not at the distances current missiles have been able to achieve. The only assurance is that new technology is always being developed.

It was recently reported in the media that Switzerland seeks to hold a Peace Forum on Karabakh, which will discuss the plight of the Armenians who left their homes after the Second Karabakh War and the subsequent military operation.   According to the reports, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Swiss Federal Assembly passed a resolution mandating a peace forum in a year to initiate an open dialogue between the Azerbaijani government and the Armenians of Karabakh.

“The aim is to facilitate an open dialogue between Azerbaijan and representatives of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians, conducted under international supervision or in the presence of internationally relevant actors, in order to negotiate the safe and collective return of the historically resident Armenian population,” reads the text of the motion submitted to the Swiss parliament by the foreign affairs commission of the National Council.   The motion’s justification mentions that Nagorno-Karabakh has been emptied of its Armenian population since Azerbaijan’s last military advance in September 2023. 

“Fearing another genocide like that perpetrated against the Armenians in 1915, the historical population was forced to leave their homeland within a few days. The region has since experienced documented ethnic cleansing: Armenian cultural heritage, such as churches, monasteries and cemeteries, is systematically destroyed or reinterpreted with fake historical documents under the guise of “renovation”. Despite these serious developments, the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh maintain their desire to return to their homeland under security guarantees from the international community, to determine their own political future and to exercise democratic self-government.”

However, the peace forum is one-sided.  It does not discuss the plight of the close to one million Azerbaijanis who were ethnically cleansed from their homes and forced to live as refugees.  During my seven visits to Azerbaijan, I visited a displaced persons camp outside of Baku, where I met with Azerbaijanis who were forced from their homes in Karabakh.  Today, inside the refugee camps, they live in squalor without air conditioning in the summer, hoping and praying that they can return to their homes in Karabakh, which were destroyed by the Armenians and found booby-trapped with landmines.

The Swiss peace forum does not discuss the Azerbaijani mosques and cultural heritage sites that were destroyed and left in ruins during thirty years of Armenian occupation.   During my two trips to Shusha and two trips to Aghdam, I found cities that lay in ruins due to Armenia’s brutal ethnic cleansing campaign.  I also saw cemeteries, mosques, historic landmarks, and numerous homes that were reduced to rubble.   While on a recent trip to Zangilan, I saw that Azerbaijan rebuilt the mosque that was destroyed, while the remnants of what was remained to bear witness to what the Armenians did to that mosque.  But the Swiss ignore these inconvenient facts. 

Rather, their resolution only discusses the damage to Armenian cultural heritage and the plight of Armenian settlers, who fled after the Azerbaijanis reclaimed Karabakh and the seven Azerbaijani districts in accordance with four UN Security Council resolutions.  As someone who has been to Karabakh five times, I must say that the damage that was done to Armenian cultural heritage sites pales in comparison to what was done to Azerbaijani cultural heritage sites.  I saw an Armenian church in Shusha with mild damage to the roof during the war, and when I was there, the Azerbaijanis were in the process of fixing it up.   Compare that with mile after mile of cities and villages that lay in ruins due to Armenia’s ethnic cleansing campaign against one million Azerbaijanis who lived in Karabakh and the seven adjacent Azerbaijani districts.  

In the eyes of many Azerbaijanis, this makes this peace forum one-sided and violates Switzerland’s otherwise neutral foreign policy.  If the Swiss wish to be true impartial mediators, they must discuss the plight of refugees on both sides and the horrific conditions of cultural heritage sites that were destroyed on both sides.   Otherwise, they cannot be considered to be an impartial negotiator.    Therefore, Switzerland must also give respect to the plight of one million Azerbaijanis that were expelled from their homes in the First Karabakh War and the destruction the Armenians did during their thirty year occupation, and only discuss what Azerbaijan did afterwards in this context.   Otherwise, they are fueling the conflict rather than resolving it.   

This graphic shows how the THAAD system is networked via fiber optic cables to its various components to detect, identify, and engage an incoming missile. The THAAD missile, called an interceptor, has no warhead or explosives. Instead, it uses “kinet… (Photo Credit: U.S. Army)

After over 500 ballistic missiles demonstrated a historic threat to city centres and thoroughly established a Causus Belli, the United States’ responded to future threats by erecting a THAAD site in the Middle East. In past conflicts, a significantly smaller SCUD threat in the 1991 Gulf War was a large factor in establishing a coalition of willing powers to challenge tyranny in the region. With ballistic missiles being a known threat during the Second World War via V-2 rockets, it has only been a recent phenomenon where a defence against such threats even exists. Even during the 1991 Gulf War, early Patriot missile systems were largely ineffective in intercepting SCUD missiles, despite the SCUD being significantly older technology and in a lot smaller numbers. A notable strike on US personnel in Saudi Arabia showed there was little defense against the SCUD if the launchers were not intercepted within minutes of the missile being made ready to fire. The invention of THAAD came from the motivation to have missile interceptors protect allied forces as well as innocent civilian populations as promised in 1991. With that technology finally becoming active, missile interception systems closely belongs to the era of the 2020s.

The THAAD system was mostly known previously for its deployment and political tension created around it in the Pacific region. With North Korea continuously demonstrating the range of their ballistic missile programs, THAAD was proposed to be introduced in Asia at the protest of China’s Government. THAAD is designed to target long range, high altitude rockets and intercept them in the upper atmosphere. THAAD would protect America itself from a massive attack, often eliminating large warheads that are designed to create a lot of area damage, but also could carry chemical and nuclear warheads. THAAD, if successful, would mirror Reagan’s Star Wars system, eliminating missiles at the highest arc of their trajectory, except being based on the ground. THAAD would work however, whereas Star Wars was a proposal well beyond the technology of its time.

Despite there being versions of Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) systems surrounding Moscow since the 1960s, there were no confirmed successful uses of these systems in combat until recent more modern missile systems demonstrated they could target and eliminate other active missiles. During the War in Ukraine, older ballistic missiles like the OKA were able to beat out more modern S-300, SA-11 and SA-15 systems designed to knock missiles out of the sky. Only the most modern missile systems are able to knock out Russian missiles, with a spotty success rate at best. THAAD will likely be more active in the region soon, and a true test of its capabilities will be established. The ability of THAAD to coordinate missile defense with other systems is significant, as the THAAD radar is extremely powerful and able to detect missiles being fired from across the entire Middle East.

The THAAD system may have a weakness if it is not coordinated and connected to smaller defensive missile systems/Anti-Air systems that can protect the THAAD site and radar from smaller missile and drone threats. Bleeding THAAD and other expensive and complicated systems of their missiles was experienced in Ukraine as Russia used low cost drones to drown the radar detection with multiple targets and use up crucial missiles that are needed against high speed targets, as opposed to slow, inexpensive drones and missiles. The THAAD system therefore should only be used for its main purpose, and other systems need to be married to it for its own defense and a proper long term layered defense of the protected territory. Taking out a THAAD or something claimed as equivalent like a Russian S-400 system is a significant victory, as it shows that the territory cannot be protected and a new strategy needs to be initiated and installed, a task that can take a large amount of time in a difficult and ever expanding conflict. Suffering a missile barrage, even if defended successfully, allows the enemy to better target vital resources and civilians the next time around, and requires a defensive capability along with offensive action. The result of failures has already demonstrated the brutality of conflict when missile defense is relied upon too much and a military becomes complacent in war.

The Dutch Parliament has passed two fresh biased resolutions against Azerbaijan, a strong ally of the United States.  These two resolutions were passed after the Dutch Parliament recommended that the government support Armenia in every possible way, particularly in the context of the “seizure of Karabakh,” a resolution that was heavily criticized in Azerbaijan

The first fresh resolution states: “Considering that the Azerbaijani army attacked Nagorno-Karabakh (again! – Ed.) in September 2023, causing almost the entire population to flee to Armenia and not yet return to their homes, and also because Azerbaijan is destroying Armenian cultural heritage in the region… We call on the government to take action to protect Armenian cultural heritage, both under the 1954 Hague Convention and within the framework of UNESCO.”

The second resolution states: “that “obstacles (to the peace process – Ed.) still exist, including Azerbaijan’s continued detention of Armenian prisoners of war.” The resolution calls on the Dutch government, along with other European countries, to intensify pressure on Azerbaijan to expedite the release of all Armenian “prisoners of war.”

Following the parliamentary initiative, a representative of the executive branch—Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp—also expressed support for these resolutions during his speech. He called for the release of individuals associated with the former separatist regime and terrorists arrested by the Azerbaijani side, framing them as “prisoners of war.”

I have visited Karabakh five times and the only significant destruction of cultural heritage that I witnessed was that of Armenians destroying Azerbaijani cultural heritage.    I saw the ruins of Aghdam, where 100,000 people used to live in the Soviet period.  I saw the ruins of the historic Bread Museum, which used to house a loaf of bread that was preserved by Soviet soldiers dating from the Second World War. All that remains of that museum is a half-destroyed mural. I saw tombs dating from the Karabakh khanate, a world heritage site which were partially destroyed. I saw a mosque, which until recently housed pigs and goats, and was used as an Armenian watch tower. And I saw the remnants of a cemetery, where all of the bones were thrown away, with the tombstones and gold teeth in the graves being sold for use in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

I was in Shusha and saw a destroyed Azerbaijani palace, a destroyed bank, and destroyed government offices.  All of Shusha, the capital of Azerbaijani music and poetry, was essentially ruins, after the Armenians controlled the area for thirty years and literally lived among the ruins, not rebuilding anything.     I saw a monument to Soviet soldiers that was destroyed in the city of Sultanya.    I saw a ruined mosque in Zangilan, which was recently rebuilt but the ruins were preserved as a memorial to Armenia’s crimes against humanity.   Mile after mile, I saw destroyed agricultural fields, ruined homes and other cultural heritage sites, and many mosques that lay demolished or disrespected in cruel ways.   In contrast, I saw that the Azerbaijanis only caused mild damage to a church in Shusha, which they rushed to fix.   Yet, the Dutch Parliament is silent on all of this destroyed cultural heritage. 

They only care about the few churches that accidently got damaged in the fighting and that Azerbaijan imprisoned some Armenian separatists, like Ruben Vardanyan, a Russian oligarch of Armenian ethnicity close to Putin who committed crimes against Azerbaijanis.   Just as the West wants to see Israel release Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists in exchange for freeing the hostages, so does some Western countries like the Netherlands wish to see terrorists with Azerbaijani blood on their hands set free.      

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry stated in its response: “It is regrettable that the aforementioned documents and expressed opinions completely ignore the fact of military occupation that was once perpetrated against our country, the ethnic cleansing of the Azerbaijani population, and the ongoing territorial claims of the Armenian side against Azerbaijan.”

This is major double standard on the part of the Netherlands: “The colonial past of the Netherlands is marked by the enslavement and exploitation of numerous peoples in Asia, Africa, and the Americas, along with numerous crimes committed against them. As they expanded their colonial empire through brutal tactics, the Netherlands consistently prioritized profit over human rights. A significant portion of the Netherlands’ development is built on the plundered national wealth of enslaved countries. Therefore, the statement from the Netherlands—who continue to keep various peoples around the world in a state of dependency—that they are making efforts to overcome the severe consequences of their own colonial history should be viewed as hypocrisy,” stated the Milli Majlis of Azerbaijan.

The Baku Initiative Group (BIG) has announced its invitation to the Parliament of the Netherlands to urge the government to put an end to the crimes occurring on the islands of Bonaire, Sint Maarten, Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Eustatius, and Saba. The group also called for the establishment of an investigative commission to hold accountable those responsible for past and ongoing crimes. Additionally, the Group urges the European Union to support the creation of a relevant body under the UN Human Rights Council to oversee criminal activities in these territories and facilitate forwarding recorded cases to other UN bodies. “We urge you to support initiatives against colonial crimes at the international level and back the activities of the Baku Initiative Group,” BIG stated.

 

The QN-506, a low cost option mirroring the BMPT Terminator may become the pre-AI standard in Urban Combat.

 

What would have been a simple narrative of popular sci-fi games just three short years ago, urban combat has become a mixture of traditional anxiety mixed with modern horrors on the battlefield. The Geo-political environment is asking for more of these conflict in urban environments, characterised by high losses and brutal victories at the best of times. While there has been little development of new and innovative arms or equipment in urban warfare from the Second World War into the Vietnam War, the last few major conflicts in urban situations gave rise to new concepts of protection and firepower via hard lessons in combat.

The Soviet experience in Afghanistan as well as Russian losses in the Chechen Wars was a lesson in armour support. While the traditional method of bringing tanks into an urban situation required accompanying soldiers to protect tanks and armour, the use of and development of a dedicated anti-personnel armour vehicle became a necessity. Anti-air systems like the ZSU-23-4 Shilka were stripped of their radar and used in a direct fire role against high angled targets in the mountains of Afghanistan. Despite this lesson, urban combat in Chechnya resulting in the loss of many Russian armoured vehicles, despite the past lessons of using the Shilka against high angled targets.

The era that approached the 2010s still required a proper system for protected urban combat, even after a generation of slow developments by urban warriors fighting in Iraq and extended fighting in Afghanistan. An independent system/assault drone was still out of reach, but was demonstrated in the movie Robocop in 2014. The classic ED-209 from the 1980s Robocop films was re-imagined and put in the role of urban combat droid, a concept that will likely be seen in the near future as a method to avoid casualties in urban combat.

When the War in Ukraine began, one of the most fear combat systems possessed by Russian Forces approaching Kyiv was the BMPT Terminator. Based on a modified T-72 hull and chassis, the mass produced T-72 was used with an updated unmanned turret to create a modern urban combat vehicle that utilised large reserve stocks of older classic T-72 hulls. Added protection to the T-72 enabled the crew of 2 to be buttoned up inside of the protected hull, while the active turret was controlled remotely. The turret consisted of an arsenal of weapons to suit an urban environment, notably two cannons from the BMP-2, machine guns, anti-tank missiles and other useful sensors to repel assaults from high angles above or from protected shelters. The BMPT Terminator was a manned version of something seen in sci-fi movies, with technology that could be developed into a BMPT that could perhaps be unmanned in the future. The Uran-9 concept was just that, a unmanned ground attack drone that is likely still in development today.

While systems like the Uran-9 require a new manufacture and design, the idea of using older T-72 hulls for a new system like the Terminator may become a solution for the ever dwindling armour stockpile being ground through in the War in Ukraine. The old Soviet stockpile being used by both Russia and Ukraine in combat is often not destroyed by other tanks, but by artillery, drones, and personnel using anti-tank weaponry. While the T-72s are being ripped apart on the battlefield, Russia possesses many T-55 hulls in storage from the mid-Cold War period with cannons that are not effective against modern armour on the battlefield. If these systems could be re-imagined for urban combat, they might provide an easily accessed and rapid solution for either army fighting in towns across Ukraine and Russia.

The idea of putting a modern system on an old and well stocked hull was attempted by China already with their QN-506 vehicle, China’s “Terminator” concept. The PLA’s copy of the Soviet T-54, the Type 59, is part of the same design family as the T-55, and is the basis for the QN-506 urban combat vehicle. While this system did not sell well on the international market when it was first presented, it was a concept that was meant as a option for countries who possessed the older T-55/Type 59 hulls to have a modern urban combat platform for their military. The QN-506 also had a single cannon like an M2 Bradley, but in an unmanned turret like the BMPT. The QN-506 also had a series of smaller rockets, anti-tank missiles, and its own drone, along with sensors and equipment to serve in an urban combat environment. While the concept did not sell well as few short years ago, such a system will likely be effective in urban conflicts where no such system alternatives exist at the moment. This low cost alternative will be the best option for many militaries, as traditional tanks have several drawbacks as experienced in Grozny, warfare that is increasingly urban and based on developing AI technologies. While conflicts grow, more of these systems will find their place in those battles. It is just a matter of time before we see an ED-506 perhaps, as losses of AI equipment can easily be replaced.

Representative Adam Schiff (D-California) should reconsider the Artsakh Revenue Recovery Act. It is an affront to an American ally. 

When the United States was fighting against the Taliban in Afghanistan, all American troops stopped in Baku in order to refuel en route to Kabul. Throughout all of the years that the United States was in Afghanistan, the Azerbaijanis provided this service to American servicemen and servicewomen, without complaints. And when the United States decided that it was time to evacuate from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan worked together with Turkey in order to ensure that American servicemen and servicewomen got home safely.

Usually, when a US ally does something like that for the United States, most Americans would show their appreciation, especially when this same country is helping Europe to obtain energy security in the wake of the war in the Ukraine. However, Representative Adam Schiff, a Democrat from California, does not show any appreciation for what Azerbaijan does for the United States and Europe. Instead, he cares about getting Armenian votes on Election Day, which prompted him to throw American values such as appreciation for US allies out of the window.

Recently, Representative Adam Schiff has demonstrated how much he values Armenian votes over America’s national interests when he introduced the Artsakh Revenue Recovery Act, which targets Azerbaijani assets in the United States and delivers them to Armenians who were displaced during the Second Karabakh War and the subsequent military operation.

Never mind that Karabakh was recognized as part of Azerbaijan under four UN Security Council resolutions and the 30-year Armenian occupation of the area was considered illegal under international law. Never mind that during the Armenian occupation of Karabakh and the seven Azerbaijani districts, around one million Azerbaijanis were displaced from their homes and never got any compensation from Armenia for all of their suffering.  Schiff wants to target only Azerbaijan and to have them pay for the Armenian settlers that got displaced from their homes.

This would be equivalent to asking Israel to pay compensation money to a Palestinian terrorist family that got evicted from their home, after their ancestors had already seized the home from a Jewish family that was massacred in Hebron following the 1929 riots. What Schiff is asking Azerbaijan to do is essentially the same thing, pay compensation to people that occupied and squatted on land that did not belong to them, and committed grave crimes against the original inhabitants of the land.

For this reason, everyone should condemn Representative Schiff for targeting Azerbaijan, a country that is an ally of both Israel and America in the struggle against a nuclear Iran. Representative Schiff should stop targeting US allies and to stop doing the bidding of proxies of Iran, who continuously work against America’s best interests in the Caucuses region. Instead of targeting the mullahs for their repression of Azerbaijanis, Baloch, Ahwaz and other repressed groups, and provide the victims of Iranian terrorism with compensation, Representative Schiff is going after Azerbaijan. American allies do not deserve to be treated in this manner.

Ayoob Kara, who served as Israel’s Communication Minister under Netanyahu, also called upon Representative Schiff to not pursue the Artsakh Revue Recovery Act: “As we speak, Israel is being attacked by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis and other terror groups. During this period of time, Baku has provided us with a steady supply of oil and been a reliable partner. Out of respect for the Israel-US friendship, we ask that you not punish Azerbaijan in this manner.”      

The West Azerbaijani community also wrote a letter to Representative Schiff, proclaiming: “This draft is ill-informed and discriminatory as it promotes one-sided and out-of-context narratives that totally ignores the plight and suffering of one group of people and puts premium on the other group. We understand that the ethnic and religious sympathy is the main reason for your discrimination against Azerbaijan. If advanced, such a document will be an affront to human rights and international law, serving as a harbinger for instability, human suffering and damage to the US regional role.”

The West Azerbaijani community added: “We, as people who spent most of our lives in forcible displacement and destitution due to Armenia’s illegal occupation and ethnic cleansing, understand the utmost value and imperative nature of the right to return. This right is a part of fundamental human rights without regard to ethnic or religious background.  The UN team that visited the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan following the restoration of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty in September 2023 stated that “they saw no damage to civilian public infrastructure, including hospitals, schools and housing, or cultural and religious infrastructure” and “they did not come across any reports — either from the local population or from others — of violence against civilians following the latest ceasefire.”

They continued: “With a premium put on Armenian lobby groups, your discriminative approach to the right of Azerbaijanis forcibly displaced by Armenia to return to their homes is morally obnoxious. You were absolutely silent when 750,000 Azerbaijanis were ethnically cleansed, were subjected to genocide in Khojaly and denied their basic right to return for more than 30 years. You are now also silent as landmines implanted by Armenia continue to kill and maim innocent civilians who just exercise their right to return.”  

The policy of Representative Schiff is folly for the United States. Just imagine that one day, another September 11 occurs that originates with the Taliban government in Afghanistan. In such a case, the US would once again need to return to the war-torn country and will need once again stopover flights in Baku, as well as Azerbaijan’s assistance on the ground in fighting against the Taliban.  Given this, it would behoove the United States not to alienate allies that have had America’s back in the past just in order to win over some Armenian votes in California. After all, America’s national interests should come before any lobby, even if that lobby has quite a number of continents in Representative Schiff’s district.  

 

In a recent news conference, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was asked whether he is pressing Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to free Vardanyan and other Armenians remaining in Azerbaijani captivity.

“How did it happen so that Ruben Vardanyan renounced his Russian citizenship?” he replied. “Who advised or instructed him to take that step? Who sent him to Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and for what purpose and with what promises?”

Vardanyan, who held the second-highest post in Karabakh’s leadership from November 2022 to February 2023, was arrested at an Azerbaijani checkpoint in the Lachin corridor as he fled the region along with tens of thousands of its ordinary residents following an Azerbaijani military offensive. He was charged with “financing terrorism,” illegally entering Karabakh and supplying its armed forces with military equipment.  

Today, Azerbaijan is imprisoning him for these crimes, yet this does not seem to bother Armenia’s Prime Minister.   The question is, why?   The Armenian government under Pashinyan recently faced a Russian coup attempt and has accused a group of people of training ethnic Armenians at a military base in Russia in order to oust the democratically elected sitting Armenian prime minister from power.  

This is the same Armenian Prime Minister who has been distancing himself from Moscow in recent times, culminating in Armenia’s withdrawal from the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.  Armenia’s Investigative Committee recently announced the arrest of three people and the inclusion of four others on a wanted list for their desire to help Putin oust Armenia’s democratically elected leader. They stated that the seven suspects are Armenian citizens and Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians with close ties to Moscow, exactly like Vardanyan. They have been charged with usurping power, and if found guilty, face up to 15 years imprisonment.

Over the course of 2024, one year after the Russian oligarch Vardanyan was imprisoned, this group recruited an undisclosed number of Armenian citizens and former residents of Nagorno-Karabakh under the pretext of undergoing training sessions in Russia, along with a monthly stipend of ₽220,000 ($2,400). The recruits were told that these trainings would teach them how to use heavy weaponry, and that upon returning to Armenia, they would be able to utilize their new skills in carrying out combat duty, as well as in training others. 

According to Armenian authorities, once the recruits were transferred to Russia, they underwent preliminary checks, including a polygraph test, ‘in order to find out their personal characteristics and political views, the relationship with the Armenian law enforcement bodies’, etc. If they passed this initial test, the recruits were then deployed at the Russian Arbat Battalion’s military base to undergo combat training. It was only at this point that the recruits were told the actual goal of the training sessions — ‘to return to the Republic of Armenia and remove the current authority’.

An Armenian fact-checking outlet, Fip.am, reported that the Arbat Battalion was established in 2022, the very same year Vardanyan ruled the Karabakh separatist enclave, and that it primarily consisted of ethnic Armenians. They added that the battalion had signed an agreement with the Russian Defense Ministry. They also noted that the unit has been fighting in Ukraine.  The uncovering of this battalion makes Pashinyan ponder, what role did Vardanyan have in implementing Moscow’s sinister intentions for his country?    Did Vardanyan denounce his Russian citizenship and come to Karabakh only in order to weaken me at the expense of Moscow?   And if Vardanyan had any role in helping Russia to overthrow his rule, why would he want to help Vardanyan go anywhere outside of his Azerbaijani jail cell?   

Thus, Moscow, by attempting to topple the Pashinyan government, has now helped the Pashinyan government to turn against the Russian oligarch Vardanyan, who like the group that was recently arrested was very close to Putin.   Indeed, these days, the Armenian leadership prefers Iran, France and America to Russia.   In fact, in the wake of the coup attempt, they have grown weary of having a conflict with Baku, who does respect Armenia’s right to rule in Armenia proper, unlike Moscow.     This greatly enhances the prospects for peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.   Thus, given the turn of events, Pashinyan has become an ally of Baku when it comes to possessing a desire to keep Vardanyan behind bars.   

On the other side of the coin, in the wake of Putin’s recent visit to Azerbaijan, the Armenians look with apprehension at the idea of Russia getting closer to Azerbaijan.   They view it as a threat to their interest to distance themselves from Moscow, especially in light of the recent coup attempt.   Therefore, they are hostile to Azerbaijan’s anti-vector policy, which seeks to have a balanced relationship where Baku supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sends them humanitarian aid while helping the West to wean off Russian oil and gas by offering itself as a viable alternative, while at the same time doing so in a way that will not antagonize Putin.  The Azerbaijanis see how much Ukraine has suffered for wanting to be part of NATO and has chosen to be smart over right.

However, the Armenian leadership has not chosen to be smart over right.   Despite their dependency on the Russian economy as a land-locked former Soviet bloc country, they have taken actions hostile to Moscow in retribution for their lack of assertiveness in helping Armenia in recent years. And for this reason, when Moscow gets closer to Baku, they grow even more hostile to Moscow, as their successful weening off of Moscow depends squarely on Armenia making peace with Azerbaijan and the Armenians do not want the Russians to sabotage this for them.   For this reason, they are hostile towards any rapprochement between Baku and Moscow, and are highly critical of Azerbaijan taking any steps in this direction.                  

 

At a conference titled “Persecuted Asian Minorities in the EU: Legal Remedies and Humanitarian Assistance” that was recently organized by Peace for Asia Switzerland, Aye Kari Soe, a human rights activist and President of International Burmese Students, discussed her recent trip to Thailand in order to investigate the human rights abuses that are presently taking place in Myanmar.  In her talk, she discussed how Myanmar poses a major threat to the global war on drugs.     

Soe noted that Myanmar stands behind many of the drug problems faced in America and Europe: “Not just traditional drugs like cocaine and heroin, but synthetic stimulants are flooding Europe. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Myanmar is the largest producer of meth and other drugs that are not yet fully traceable yet. These drugs are being transported worldwide, affecting our citizens here in Europe. The U.S. has already been faced with this alarming issue for years, with deaths involving synthetic opioids. Europe must therefore act quickly to prevent this supply from reaching our shores and harming our citizens.”

“The people producing these drugs are often not doing so of their own free will either,” she stressed.  “Many are enslaved, sold, and forced to work, their passports seized, and their freedom stripped away. In Myanmar, young Rohingya are kidnapped and sold into industries like fishing, where they are exploited by multi-million-dollar corporations exporting products to Europe. This is why I advocate for greater transparency in our supply chains. We must ensure that we are not only fighting against human rights abuses in Europe but also standing strong and advocating for human rights for everyone, everywhere.”

Not just Myanmar poses a grave threat in regards to the drug trade.   Pakistan and Afghanistan, particularly the western border of Pakistan, is home to the largest EU-bound drug trade cartels.   European MEP Fulvio Martusciello noted in his speech at the conference: “A report by the Atlantic Council highlighted the emergence of some extremist groups in Pakistan as the most important mode of Afghan terrorist groups who deal with drug trafficking to the EU.”  He indicated that the EU and Pakistani government as well as south Asian countries should work together to counter this phenomena.

Ramen Rahangmetan, co-founder of the Circle of Sustainable Europe, added at the conference that these drug cartels also exploit refugees seeking to flee to Europe.  In fact, a recent report in the Guardian found that these drug cartels even force migrant children to work as soldiers to smuggle cocaine into Europe. 

Rahangmetan proclaimed, “Traffickers exploit the weak, charging very high fees and subjecting migrants to violence, forced labor and sexual exploitation.  These refugees are victims twice over—once in their home country and again as they are smuggled into Europe.  The EU must strengthen its efforts to fight human trafficking through cooperation with international bodies like the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.   We must ensure that asylum seekers are protected not only from persecution at home but from predatory forces that await them on their journey to safety.”

Peace for Asia Switzerland is a non-profit research-based collective focused on human rights violations in Asia.   Senior journalists, activists and political leaders participate in this forum with insights from the region.   Since its creation in 2020, they have engaged with several heads of state, UN officials and diplomats through campaigns, conferences, and webinars.  Recently joining Peace for Asia Switzerland, Anhelina Tkachenko, the moderator of the conference, is committed to advancing the association’s mission and making a meaningful impact on human rights.  

A Monument to The Battle of Kursk, with a classical Soviet image of varied citizens of the Socialist Republic contributing to the battle.

The victories against Fascism in the regions around and between Kharkiv and Kursk are ones that have been seared into the national memory of the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine. Historically significant battles during the Second World War, including the largest tank battle ever to have taken place, occurred in the Kursk region. These battles not only determined the fate of the Soviet Union and the peoples within it, but also likely changed the outcome of the Second World War for all Allied nations.

The current conflict in the same region that is now taking place between Ukraine and Russia are made up of armies who often had ancestors who fought together against Napoleon and Fascism. In many cases, these modern soldiers have direct relatives on the other side of the border, represented on the other side of the conflict. Despite this common history, the battles around Kharkiv towards Kursk are no less brutal, bloody, or survivable, making the region one of the most fought over territories in human history, a land filled with those lost in brutal combat.

This week, Russia has announced that they will enlarge their regular armed forces by 1.5 million more soldiers, putting Russia’s Armed Forces at over 2 million. This would make the Russian Army one of the largest armies in the world. With the Rouble being fairly high, even under sanctions, and their weapons industry slowly working towards full capacity, it is uncertain if this enlargement would be viable as equipment stocks may not keep up with recruitment. In addition, it is likely the case that Russian citizens would be weary of entering front line combat units as more details come to light of the brutality of the front. While accurate information about conditions at the front are difficult to verify through any reliable sources, it is likely the case that it is much worse than anyone can imagine.

One account that has gained some attention over the last few months is from a hired former PLA soldier from China who is serving in the Russian Army in Ukraine. Like a number of foreign fighters with the Russian Army, he was hired as an independent paid soldier to bolster Russian forces. His personal videos and accounts of fighting demonstrate the brutality of war, an experience mirrored during past conflicts in the same region during the Second World War. Urban combat, modern weapons and the general anarchy of the conflict paints a picture worse than anyone could have imagined for soldiers on both sides of the conflict. Such accounts make one consider what the value of war is between Ukraine and Russia in 2024, and what value actions that can prevent a full scale war can have if it can reduce a conflict escalating further. Stating that, he also said his prospects in his home country make him prefer to stay in combat abroad, which details how much care must be taken to not ignite additional conflicts in other regions of the world. Bad policy certainly has its consequences, and those who have faced combat are often the only ones who have ever seen the reality of those consequences. They are also often the ones who work most diligently to prevent further conflicts, as a true victory is often not the end result.

Recently, the Third International Conference on Mine Action titled “Mitigating Environmental Impact of Landmines: Resource Mobilization for Safe and Green Future” was held in Azerbaijan.   It was critical to host this conference ahead of the COP29 Conference in Azerbaijan due to the role that landmines play in raising the threat of climate change.

According to the Conflict and Climate Observatory, “Conflict-affected countries are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Climate finance to support fragile and conflict-affected states is grossly inadequate and, in an example of climate injustice, without significant changes in access to climate funds, these communities will become more vulnerable and less able to cope.”

They added: “Climate change can impact areas affected by explosive remnants of war (ERW) contamination in several ways. Extreme weather events such as flooding and heatwaves can increase the risks posed by ERW contamination; remobilizing ERW or triggering landscape fires. ERW clearance and removal operations will need to adapt to meet the challenges of climate change, while local communities may need assistance and support to build climate resilience.”

Even before Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, 60 million people worldwide live in areas affected by the explosive remnants of war.   According to the Cluster Munitions Monitor, “Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, over a thousand cluster munition casualties have been recorded in Ukraine.  In Ukraine alone, more than 50 cluster munition attacks were reported in 2023 where the number of casualties that occurred was not noted.”

They added: “New casualties from cluster munitions were recorded in nine countries—Azerbaijan, Iraq, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Mauritania, Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen—in 2023.    In 2023, 101 casualties from cluster munition remnants were recorded in Azerbaijan, Iraq, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Mauritania, Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine.”    Regarding the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, the Cluster Munitions Monitor stressed: “a survey by The HALO Trust in the aftermath of the 2020 conflict found that 68% of inhabited settlements had experienced cluster munition use and contamination.”

Since 1991, more than 3,429 of Azerbaijan’s citizens including 358 children and 38 women have been adversely affected by landmines.   In response to this reality, the Azerbaijani National Agency for Mine Action and the United Nations Development Program established the Center for Excellence for mine action training in Azerbaijan.   It is set to become a vital platform for exchanging demining experience and technologies with other countries experiencing similar problems.

At the UNDP/Anama Conference, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized that one of the main reasons for the high number of mine victims is Armenia’s refusal to hand over landmine maps: “The responsibility for that rests with Armenia.”    He also noted that from 2020 to 2023, new mined areas extending up to 500 km were created in Azerbaijan: “Challenges we face on demining also hamper our development and recovery efforts, creating serious obstacles for the return of 800,000 formerly displaced persons.   Mines that remain buried in the ground for a long time leads to harmful chemical reactions.   Land left unused due to mines undergoes natural erosion and degradation.”   

So far, Azerbaijan has demined 140,000 hectares of its territory, neutralizing 119,946 mines and unexploded ordinances.   Azerbaijan las year declared humanitarian demining the 18th National Sustainable Development Goal and signed a document with UNDP, highlighting the global importance of international cooperation in the field of demining.   Azerbaijan hopes to continue to share its experience with demining with the global community. 

S-300V version Air Defence Vehicles shown after being eliminated by a strike.

 

Recently, Chinese and Philippine naval encounters have resulted in Chinese vessels ramming Philippine vessels in the waters between the two nations. The Philippines has always been one of the United States’ closest allies, and have always had a tight security arrangement with the United States. With wars already ranging in Europe and the Middle East, the last shoe to drop was always whether China would activate their forces regarding Taiwan, or if China would choose to avoid a conflict that had little practical benefit to them and their position in the world.

The events between the two nations is not simply a territorial spat, but involves all of the larger powers in the region and abroad, as it was influenced by actions abroad. Non-lethal assaults on a US ally by China may be a response to the US focusing diplomatically on China’s sale of non-military equipment to Russia that is likely being used in the production of Russian military equipment. While US allies and China could likely eliminate this tension by simply opening up sales of such affordable equipment toward the efforts to help Ukraine, this has not become an option to date. Actions by China likely surround a strategy to test the United States’ will power in helping its allies in foreign conflicts abroad. This ever present reality comes as the US Administration waffles in helping even their own citizens being held hostage while passively punishing the only forces equipped to ensure their freedom. If Americans will not even take direct actions to help their own people in dire straits, the opportunity to permanently damage the United States and their allies encourages the worst responses as a narrative, in political dealings and physically by way of open conflict. When the United States ignores their own citizens being tortured, it in effect dehumanizes them and shows to the world that human rights is no longer a core Western value. If some citizens simply don’t count, than all citizens are a target. While diplomacy always requires an outstretched arm, that arm must be always be connected to a strong hand.

While US allies do possess the strength to alter the political landscape abroad to their benefit and that of the US, the full weight of US power needs to be used in addressing conflicts so they do not escalate further. The deployment of US Naval assets in the Middle East recently likely is tamping down a larger military response in the region, but the lack of application to threats and open harm to the US and their allies has already lead to more losses in the conflict, ones that threaten to push conflicts into a more severe level. Support for Ukrainian forces entering Russia proper has been a bold show of strength, but it must be managed purposefully as a small incident in that operation could become the catalyst for an overwhelming response between nuclear powers. The lack of action against Russia’s external military support when many innocent lives of allies are being put in danger and American lives are being threatened internally is the driving factor behind China’s actions, and should be the most serious issue in the upcoming election as it will affect every since family for generations to come.

Live fire combat against defensive missile systems in Syria, and then in Russia/Ukraine has taught the US and its allies of the true capabilities of S-400 and other Russian air defense systems. Effectiveness of air defense systems against attacking missile systems is a key bit of information used by the US and China in measuring who would sustain the most losses in open conflict on the coast near Taiwan. While China’s Russian made TOR, S-300 and S-400 systems would perform well, it is now known how to defeat them during an assault. China’s large HQ-9 missile defense force along with other types would only be able to sustain a Chinese invasion of Taiwan if they could shield PLA forces from the many advance SM missiles of the US Navy, a task that is likely not possible in a wholly effective manner. The best defense therefore is a good offense, and that offense can only be successful by making their adversary weak from within before any open conflict can have a chance to be conducted. Every single conflict in the modern era begins with that one truth.

 

A coalition of human rights organizations has released an international statement during the 57th
session of the United Nations Human Rights Council, commending the decision by the President of the
United Arab Emirates (UAE) to grant pardon to Bangladeshi nationals who were accused and convicted
of crimes affecting security and public order, and sentenced for committing crimes and offenses
punishable by law. In their statement issued on Monday, September 9, 2024, the organizations
underscored that this pardon reflects the UAE’s long-standing humanitarian approach and reinforces
its adherence to the values of tolerance. The organizations further emphasized that this act of
clemency is a testament to the sound vision and leadership of the UAE’s government. The coalition,
led by the Union Association for Human Rights, is composed of more than 20 international, regional,
and national human rights organizations, including 9 organizations holding consultative status with
the United Nations.

In their international statement, issued alongside the opening of the Human Rights Council’s session
on Monday, the human rights NGOs commended the presidential pardon, which lifted the penalties
imposed on defendants and convicts in general, thereby facilitating their return to their homeland. The
NGOs lauded the UAE’s justice system and its commitment to the principles of fair and independent
legal proceedings. Furthermore, they praised the humane conditions and environment provided during
the period of detention and the execution of sentences, noting that these practices align with
international standards.

Within the same context, the human rights organizations, in their statement endorsed by twenty-one
organizations, expressed their appreciation for the national mechanisms responsible for implementing
the pardon issued by the President of the UAE. They commended the swift action taken by the UAE’s
Attorney General to execute the pardon, which involved suspending penalties and facilitating the
measures to ensure the return of defendants and convicts to their homeland. The organizations
emphasized the significance of this initiative in fostering peace, tolerance, and human coexistence –
values that the UAE is committed to promote across the globe. This approach, which has been central
to the UAE’s ethos since the era of the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, and throughout its
civilizational and humanitarian journey, has been reaffirmed by the President of the UAE through the
issuance of this humanitarian amnesty decision for defendants and convicts, underscoring the nation’s dedication to promote tolerance and its adherence to noble human values and principles, as
consistently reflected in many national, regional and international stances, events and occasions.
In their international statement, the organizations commended the UAE for its commitment to
upholding and respecting the right to freedom of expression in accordance with the country’s laws and
regulations, ensuring its protection from any actions or deviations that could jeopardize national
security or harm the state’s interests and international relations. They called upon everyone to respect
states’ national laws, regulations and legislations, emphasizing the importance of adhering to their
legal frameworks and operational policies that align with international human rights law, which
stresses that freedom of expression must not infringe on the rights or reputations of others, nor
compromise national security, public order, public health, or public morals.

Monument to the Largest Tank Battle in History, The Battle of Kursk, showing Heroic Soviet T-34s plowing into German Tiger I tanks at Prokhorovka.

While receiving surprisingly little attention despite its historical significance, Ukraine’s Armed Forces recently took to assaulting over the border with Russia into the Kursk region of the Russian Federation. While the battles in the Kursk region of Russia are currently in play, it looks as if Ukraine has been fairly successful in entering Russia and securing territory over the border.

The historical weight of Kursk in military terms ties into storied invasions in Russian history, the most notable being Napoleon’s invasion of Russia as well as the German invasion of the Soviet Union during the Second World War. During the Second World War, Kursk was stitched into world history as being the largest tank battle to ever take place between two armies, brutal in nature as it was massive. Both invasions would have determined the future existence of Russia and the Soviet Union in their respective eras, but what is notable is that the loss of both invasions would have had severe consequences on the future of the Russian people themselves.

Military actions by Russia to push back into the neighbouring Kharkiv region has put the citizens in Kharkiv back into danger after being liberated by Ukrainian Forces. With losses in Kharkiv and attrition of forces being a detriment to Ukraine, it looks like the risky decision to enter Russian territory was taken as the stalemates in the Kharkiv region could have eventually reversed the fortunes of Ukraine in the medium term.

Since Ukraine has not made their intent public, there is no definitive consensus on the reasons behind Ukraine’s invasion of the Kursk region of Russia. Theories on Ukraine’s motives surround a possible plan to trade land for land, a simple morale boost, or a tactical move to flank hardened Russian lines in Ukraine and limit support structures for Russian Forces. While all of these variables will contribute to Ukraine’s war effort, a cultural explanation might tie all of these factors in together in ending the larger conflict.

A few months ago, Russia’s Wagner Forces took a similar approach and essentially invaded Russia as the rogue armies of old often did in the region. Material losses to Russian Forces and Wagner Brigades were less of a cost as opposed to the attempt to make Russia look unstable and its Government weak. What can be misunderstood in conflicts by Ukraine’s allies is that often the impression of weakness in a Government can be as powerful as the military itself. As stability, power and strength solidify a Government’s support, weakness is a signal of its imminent downfall. The reason why Napoleon’s Invasion and the Battle of Kursk are monumental is because it ties directly into the culture of a strong nation prevailing under difficult circumstances. The idea of strength and the warrior hero is so powerful that leaders who are unable to meet those expectations are as good as finished, and Ukraine or any Russian adversary taking over Kursk will be more than a notable point in the region’s history.

Russia’s big gamble in Ukraine never really considered Russia being invaded itself, even though Russian support for their Government’s actions is born out of the historical reality of every single Soviet citizen being personally affected by the German invasion only a few short generations ago. Generations of Soviet and Russian military doctrine were built around preventing another Nazi genocide of their people, and entire systems of protection (especially the anti-aircraft system networks) were created to repel such an attack. Since the Russia-Ukraine War began, Russia has been losing much of their modern and old Soviet stock, has taken to using drones from a country that designs weapons to commit acts like the Majdal Shams massacre, has been relegated to using dangerous old North Korean artillery stock, and is now having to purchase missile systems from abroad that are a poorer copy of technology invented by Russian scientists. With all of these actions, Russia was unable to prevent a massive terror attack on their own soil and have slowly become the junior partner with China, a country it has a territorial dispute with and have fought a war over previously. What Russia lacks in conventional military capability in 2024, they make up for in nuclear deterrence, but even the TOPOL missile fleet is under the control of a Government that would only look weaker if unhinged.

It should be noted that support for certain regimes is a curious one, as while severe elements in Western countries seemed to ignore the massacre of Majdal Shams on a football field in the middle of the Olympic games, ignore the targeted massacres in Bangladesh, treat the freedom movement in Venezuela like they are the Iranian Women’s movement they gave up on, and generally encourage more strife, people in places like China and Iran are very unlikely to support their young men dying in a war in support of a few old men running their Government. Russia is different as it had popular support for its actions, seen as a projection of strength tied with its historical lessons of protecting Russians at all costs against enemies from abroad. A possible loss of Kursk can change the narrative, and as with many of these current global wars, weakness and anarchy will never be in the public interest. It is so crucial to understand this concept in foreign relations that is should be considered the determining factor for the future existence of a regime, and possibly election victories in the West.

Bangladeshi dissident Aslam Chowdhury, a prominent human rights and minority rights activist who was in prison for the last eight years, was recently released from prison. Meanwhile, upon hearing the news of his release, hundreds of activists have gathered in front of the Chattogram Central Jail amid the rain to welcome him as he emerged from prison. They welcomed him at the jail gate with flowers. Later, they started for Sitakunda with Aslam Chowdhury by processions with trucks.

The Bangladeshi dissident was imprisoned after 76 political cases were filed against him. He was granted bail in 75 cases, said Aslam Chowdhury’s personal lawyer KM Saiful Islam. Bangladeshi dissident Aslam Chowdhury is a leader of the BNP, who was known for his activities defending the rights of Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh.

He was also an outspoken opponent of Sheikh Hasina, a former Bangladeshi Prime Minister who recently stepped down following student-led protests against her. Presently, the deposed prime minister faces 33 charges including attacking a procession in Sylhet city which left several people shot and injured. The charges against her include 27 for murder, four for crimes against humanity and genocide, and one for abduction.

A number of years ago, Chowdhury was arrested after meeting with Mendi Safadi, who formerly served as Israeli Communication Minister Ayoob Kara’s chief of staff. The Bangladeshi government alleged that he was part of an Israeli plot to topple the Bangladeshi government but Safadi related that the real reason he was arrested was due to his role in the country’s opposition. Bangladesh has no diplomatic relations with Israel and Bangladeshi citizens are barred from visiting the Jewish state. Safadi claimed that the Sheikh Hasina government has been “using violence and murder against ethnic minorities and opponents of the regime for years.”

Shipan Kumer Basu, who leads the World Hindu Struggle Committee, was one of the Hindus that was oppressed by the Sheikh Hasina government. He was imprisoned and tortured under the Sheikh Hasina government: “The Awami League government murdered, tortured, raped, forcefully converted and looted Hindus.” This led Basu to lead an international campaign against the Sheikh Hasina government.

In 2015, Basu met with Safadi and began to work with him towards improving the plight of Hindus in Bangladesh. In 2016, Chowdhury came to India, and met with both Safadi and Basu. It was from India that this trio worked together towards improving the plight of minorities in Bangladesh. In 2017, I was recruited to write about this issue in the American and Israeli media, and the four of us worked so that Bangladesh would have a brighter future.

In an exclusive interview, Basu related: “The main reason Chowdhury was put in jail was because of his activism for Hindu rights. He was protesting against the murder and rape of Hindu women. In 2016, we delivered a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and started to reach out to Israel, so that they would help us. The Sheikh Hasina government turned Bangladesh into a graveyard. But now with Sheikh Hasina deposed and Chowdhury out of jail, we want to start making our country safe for all. We want to build a new Bangladesh where everyone will have equal rights. The new Bangladesh will be secular and progressive, where Muslims, Hindus, Christians and Buddhists can breathe freely.” Basu called on the international community to assist the interim government in establishing freedom in Bangladesh.

Hugo Chavez Statue meets its fate after a Venezuelan election that keeps the Governing regime in power.

The recent election in Venezuela was met with a result, that while surprising, was somewhat expected. Since the Chavez regime, election results in Venezuela have often favoured the incumbents, and when they did not, the incumbents still won. Venezuela’s outward appearance of democratic virtue demonstrates an electoral exercise mirrored among common regimes in recent history. While not reaching the 99% popularity of a Saddam, the Maduro campaign is thought to have been on the verge of finally losing popular support and leaving Chavismo in the history books. As expected, elections under Chavez’s successor Nicolas Maduro is not always determined by popularity, the number of votes, or the desire of Venezuelans, many who have fled Venezuela due to a generation lost under their authoritarian regime. With a political stranglehold on all checks and balances, a system that allows for attacks on the judiciary, arrests of political rivals, and assaults on human rights will never run a clean election. While the vote is being appealed, it is not expected to change the result of the election, one that was likely predetermined by the Government according to many Venezuelan policy experts.

The slow burn that resulted in democratic values dominating nations was not a creation that appeared out of the blue sky, but was one developed over generations of theoretical debates on the nature of humanity, and the best and most fair manner to govern a community. Cultural traditions and philosophies from ancient religions, to the Greeks, Magna Carta, French Revolutionary ideals and the 20th Century’s battle of Liberalism against extremist Socialism and brutal Fascism sought to create societies where rationality and proportionality in Justice would dominate all aspect of social, political and cultural life. A values system was set up to manage humanity’s innate desire for greed and absolute self benefit so that proportionality between neighbours would become the norm, ever resisting the past pressures that would create an unbalanced system. The entire system is based on a philosophy that prevents putting power into the hands of a few corrupt elites, or simply an unelected king.

As these systems developed over time, so did the extremes of power in creating those systems. While the English traditions of the Magna Carta established a person’s right to their own property, even apart from the Crown, it did not fully eliminate the power of the Crown in their democratic system. The Franco-American Republics took their cultures of Liberty from an overarching power and fought many severe battles in establishing their own Constitutional systems, away from European monarchy, towards a system run by the people. While these democratic systems are not perfect, and humans are not perfect in their intent, it allowed for a living system of laws with errors being acknowledged and challenged in tedious legal processes established over time by their not too distant ancestors. As history has shown in the development of these national traditions, democracy is not simply a vote as discussed by Latin American political analyst Guillermo O’Donnell, but a progressive development of different democratic norms in a messy process that seeks justice in a global order where power and strength was always the only determinant of life and death. Democracy came out of debate, conflict, and even revolution, but its intent was to never give absolute power to one entity, its was formed to relieve the pressures of a lack of justice so that solutions can be formed without resorting to past lived bloodshed of our ancestors. It does not seek to oppress groups in society for their class or their race or nationality, but seeks fairness and justice, even if humanity often chooses their own best interests over their neighbour.

A lacking system of democracy is a community that is unable to relieve the pressure of injustice in their system. A healthy democracy seeks to balance justice, so there is not a normalisation of disproportionately oppressive laws and an oppressive state over its citizens. Simply being the person with power who can wield a population and security structure to their own benefit only works while one is in power, and dooms them to oblivion once their regime falls, which is almost always inevitable. A system that corrupts the justice system often simultaneously tries to normalise absolute power, and once a system is corrupted it often cannot be reformed without great popular support, external pressures or the more common severe revolutionary movement. Such systems always lead to chaos, and often the agents of chaos are not the ones seeking proportional justice, but simply power for their own means. In reality, most governments in 2024 are not democratic, do not possess the ability to release pressure from politically tense situations, and people will often choose justice and freedom over oppression if there is no valve or means for them to survive. Movements that use terms such as justice, freedom, and democracy do not necessarily honour in whole or in part of any of those values when violence and threats become their norm, they just utilize those traditional terms to manipulate the narrative. Extreme violence is often committed so stability is accepted at all costs. Normalising disproportionality against the long process that created modern democracy simply eliminates the pressure valves so that chaos and violence become destiny in the erosion of free societies.

F-16 “Iron Eagle”, similar to the F-16s now making their way to Ukraine.

The 1980s was an era that was characterized by high levels of patriotism in he United States, supported by a generation of action films and accompanying stars. A few months before the release of Top Gun, there was a movie about a kid and his plane called Iron Eagle, a film built around the F-16A/B Viper (as opposed to the F-15 Eagle) being used to dominate a fictional country that played the role of fake Libya at the time. With new developments in Ukraine, the first F-16s are making their way to the war zone, a conflict that has had reduced air power due to the prevalence of so many anti-aircraft systems in the region.

While the renewal of patriotic movements remains to be seen, the promotion of the F-16 in Ukraine is seen as a game changer in the conflict despite the aircraft being a 1980’s classic, with non-stealth vulnerabilities and a limited fuel capacity. The F-14 from Top Gun, F-15 and F-16 were all designed in the late 1970s as a response to the prevalence of the nimble Soviet MiG-21, keeping their place in the front line of US Air Power ever since. While the F-14s have already been retired for sometime, the F-15 and F-16 are still considered some of the best aircraft in operation to date, even if being of an increasingly older design. Upgrades often are to the internal systems, software, radars and modernization of computer systems to keep the F-15 and F-16 potent on the battlefield. Much of these improvements have also been challenged by modern anti-aircraft systems, designed to kill an F-15 and F-16 through many layers of air defence. The narrative on the F-16s being a singularly awesome tool to turn the tide in the conflict comes with a softening of Russian Air Defence and good PR on the 1980s system. Perhaps they would do well with a promotional film after the success of Top Gun: Maverick, as wonder systems like the Leopard 2s and M1 Abrams have not matched the hype in performance, while still operating within successful realistic measures on the battlefield.

Air power in the War in Ukraine was met with some horrific tragedies, with Russian S-300 missile systems tracking Ukrainian aircraft from Belarus and shooting them down. Ukraine’s air arm, while flying in Ukraine, was in danger soon after takeoff in their own territory earlier in the conflict. Recent techniques to destroy Russian Air Defence radars and missiles have taken shape using drones and tactical ballistic missiles like Hi-Mars, focusing on larger and more complex S-400 missile batteries that are designed to challenge advanced ballistic missile systems, but fail against simple drones and is questionable in defending against Hi-Mars. While drone attacks have been able to avoid being shot down by advanced systems on both sides of the conflict, often the S-400 would carry a smaller missile capability and be covered by other shorter range missile systems and radar guided cannons. Why the recent S-400 system in Crimea was unable to be protected is likely due to the lack of the smaller missiles in its own battery. We also do not know if the battery was lacking cover from TOR and Pantsir systems in the area, designed for battery defence. Even with layered defences, swarming a radar with drones and using advanced missiles at the same time are difficult to defend against, especially since the last truly operational radar/gun system was the 1980s era West German Gepard, now dusted off to shoot down terror drones in Ukraine.

It is difficult to know the success rate of drones and Hi-Mars attacks as there is the possibility that many missiles were launched and intercepted until a Hi-Mars was able to complete its mission. These targeted assaults on S-400 systems looks to be preparing for an increased air campaign in Ukraine, likely using donated NATO F-16s. While F-16s have a better chance of surviving anti-air shields, there are so many different systems in Ukraine that the success of the F-16 will be probably come from launching longer range weapons from a distance as opposed to close in attacks. All Russian and Soviet systems were designed to kill F-16s, coming out in the late 1980s, possibly as a response to Maverick and Goose with the ability to detect a volleyball from many miles away. They did not prevent Maverick attacking another fictional country however, and the real risks to the F-16s going to battle in Ukraine comes at high risk as well. The pilots for those missions need to hope for the best, but expect the worst in order to keep themselves safe during missions.

Demonstrations in New Caledonia, which legally belongs to French sovereignty, caused a diplomatic row between France and Azerbaijan. The demonstrations and tensions in New Caledonia began after a public debate in the country about a new voting law, which, according to supporters of independence from France, discriminates against the indigenous population – the Kanaks.

The French claimed that they had noticed another flag flying in the demonstrations alongside the Kanak flag and it was the flag of Azerbaijan. Another claim of the French against Azerbaijan is that suddenly there is a group within Azerbaijan that is connected to the government and publicly supports the people of New Caledonia in their struggle against France. This, although difficult to define as “conclusive evidence”, was enough for the authorities in France to assume that there are people in Azerbaijan who support New Caledonia. The French were not satisfied with suspicions, but they issued statements and publicly blamed Azerbaijan for the instability in New Caledonia.

Another thing that caused France to raise its suspicions towards Azerbaijan as a country that interferes in the internal affairs of France, is the involvement and support of Azerbaijan in the NAM movement, or its full name “The Non-Aligned Movement”. NAM is a movement that began in the 1960s to help developing countries liberate themselves from the yoke of colonialism (with an emphasis on the countries of the Soviet Union, because during the founding period, the Cold War took place) to conduct themselves independently, without external intervention of the big powers.

In addition to this, NAM works to help peoples who cry out for independence to get their independence politically, economically, and socially. The principles that guide the NAM movement and the country of Azerbaijan, which is itself a country that has been liberated from colonialism for many years, will make it easy for the movement and the country to cooperate over the years. It was accompanied by a common desire in French colonies.

Although France is no longer a power since the beginning of the last century, it no longer controls half of the world, but it has not given up its influence in the countries and regions it controls.  France actually wants influence economically, politically, and militarily also in the lands it left a long time ago. Allowing this is called “neo-colonialism” these days. Because of France’s foreign policy towards the countries it liberated, it managed to arouse the ire of all kinds of anti-colonial movements around the world, including in New Caledonia. Instead of the people in power having a reckoning with France regarding France’s foreign policy and its attitude towards countries affected by them, they preferred to find a scapegoat to take the blame for the instability in the French colonies.

One would think that because of France’s way of acting with its colonies and the countries that were formerly its colonies, it would ideologically support countries that want to expand their territory, but no. French hypocrisy came out in full force when it came to the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict. France supported Armenian separatism in the Karabakh region and Armenia’s military terrorist operations nearby. France tried to circumvent the just demand for the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan following territorial claims by Armenia, when both houses of the French Parliament recognized the independence of the “Republic of Artsakh” in 2020, although Armenia itself did not recognize it. The French support for Armenian separatism goes well with the arguments against France, which acts selectively and cynically in everything related to support for international principles and the value of sovereignty. One can understand that what interests France are personal geopolitical interests and nothing more.

The point that the Haitian media keeps accusing Azerbaijan of anti-French potential emphasizes the French’s confidence in the lack of French foreign policy, which is characterized as colonial behavior. For example, an article from the French magazine Le Monde presents Azerbaijan’s anti-colonial actions as anti-French actions and is spreading false information about French foreign policy. It is difficult to know whether the French act this way because the French journalists really do not understand how France’s colonial foreign policy is perceived externally or because of repressed feelings of guilt from the hopes that France makes for the peoples it rules and dominates. To be sure, the sentence about the camel that cannot see its own hump does not fit the country in the same way that in this situation as it fits the description of France.

 In conclusion, it is clear to see that French foreign policy continues in many areas of the country. France’s attempts to mark Azerbaijan as undermining its sovereignty in New Caledonia, apparently stem from a search for a scapegoat in order not to give it the judgment for its actions. If not, probably out of feelings of guilt the French prefer not to see the damage they are doing and have done, to many peoples and many countries.   

The Italian Parliament in Rome recently hosted a conference entitled “The Peace Project in Ukraine” to discuss the various options for resolving the Ukraine conflict and ending the suffering of the civilian population there.    This follows Pope Francis proclaiming, “We must have the courage to negotiate.”   Monsignor Fabrizio Turriziani Colonna, Judicial Vicar of the Catholics of Armenia, Georgia, Russia and Eastern Europe, continued; “Negotiation is never surrender.  It requires courage.  Achieving peace entails making sacrifices.  Relinquishing personal principals or specific rights in favor of broader, universal ones.” 

He called for there to be action to start direct negotiations between Russia and the Ukraine: “The Pope stated that in order to achieve peace, we must construct a bridge.  But to construct a bridge, we must sacrifice something.  In Christian culture, there is ultimately no such thing as a just war.   It may be acknowledged that a war could be inevitable.  However, it can never be termed as just.  A peace project can only succeed through dialogue, creating a bridge where opposing positions can converge, albeit requiring concessions for the greater good.”  

Manel Msalmi, President of the European Association for the Defense of Minorities andan  advocate of women’s rights, discussed the plight of women and children in the Ukraine and the grave losses caused by the war, as well as the need to focus on the education of young people who have not been learning for four years. She mentioned that the Swiss talks have not brought a solution because Ukraine and Russia need to be brought to the negotiating table through mediators. Saudi Arabia and some other countries are already trying to bring Ukraine and Russia together. However, she believes “it would be more effective if Europe were to lead this process, as the conflict is being fought on European soil”. She also mentioned a threat of this spiraling out of control into a nuclear war.

Undersecretary of State at the Ministry of Infrastructure Tullio Ferrante stated that “the establishment of a permanent dialogue with all members of the international community is crucial, as a just peace can only be achieved while preserving the territorial integrity of Ukraine. At the same time, it is essential to continue humanitarian support funded by military and reconstruction operations for Ukraine”.

Professor Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University pointed out the economic impact of the war on Europe and the world and emphasized the need to avoid an escalation and talk about peace. “The EU must not accept Putin’s terms, but must be prepared to negotiate,” he said. Sachs also explained that the expansion of NATO could be a mistake for the West and that it will be wise to have countries with neutral status between NATO and Russia instead of on two sides of one border. In his opinion, the Italian people are characterized by their independent thinking, which is why he expects them to think about negotiating peace with Russia.

Member of the Chamber of Deputies Francesco Maria Rubano, Senator Francesco Silvestro and Magistrate Catello Maresca also pointed out the terrible consequences of the ongoing war and the need to establish peace. Despite the different views on the right way to end the war, the participants declared their intention to bring peace and stability to Europe.

 

Indian Produced T-90 Mk.III, a licensed and improved version of the Russian T-90 tank.

The War in Ukraine was largely unexpected from both allies of Ukraine as well as many Russian commanders themselves as little to no new weaponry was produced in large quantities prior to the beginning of the conflict. Leadership in Russia likely assumed that the assault on Kyiv would be swift and that trench style warfare would not take place in an era with rapid, modern tanks and armoured vehicles linked to GPS. The end result was trenches and drones and long range artillery with accuracy only dreamed of in the 1980s. While most of the Soviet stockpile was made to fight a Third World War in the late 70s and early 80s, it is now almost depleted in the mid-2020s.

Russia had large stockpiles of Soviet equipment in garages and sitting in fields all over Russia by the mid-2020s. Newer modern systems are often based on the late Cold War platforms with computer assisted communications and targeting equipment, designed to be an export product to nations who were looking for an economical, world class platform. When Russia lost many of these more advanced systems, they started taking equipment from their active reserves, then from working tanks from their stockpile, then upgrading the Soviet tanks to a modern standard, and now taking even 1960s era systems with an odd 115mm calibre to use as fire support for infantry. Russia has gone as far as purchasing weapons and ammunition from North Korea, much of it being of an older Soviet design and with additional problems due to quality controls. The race for modern tanks however may not be solved through these purchases, and both the Western allies and Russia may both have the option to purchase the last remaining large stockpiles of tanks for their forces in Ukraine.

Russia had a modernisation program based on the T14 Armata tank’s hull and chassis to re-equip their armed forces. The Armata platform would be utilized with new tanks and vehicles with the best technology and protection available in the post 2010s era. With the cost of the Armata being quite high however, and the requirements for the current war being one of needing more units as opposed to a few highly advanced units, it looks like the modernisation program will be focused on older models as opposed to a newly produced Armata based production. While the production for the T-80 series appears to no longer have the rationale past upgrades to make new tanks, the factory that produced the original T-72 has been working 24 hours shifts modernizing older tanks from storage to the T-72B3M standard and would likely focus on making the newer T-90M tanks if a new production run would take shape. Even with this large production push, Russia is still losing too many tanks, and both Russia and Ukraine will need to find a source of tanks that are significantly better than old T-62Ms and Leopard 1s.

The largest stockpiles of modern weapons that might be available for purchase lay in China and India. If China would decide to disengage from accelerating a conflict with Taiwan and continue as the world’s manufacturing hub, PLA land forces would be in excess of equipment and armour. China had to design the ZTQ15 light tank as it could operate effectively for use on the border with India, where many of their ZTZ99A and ZTZ96B tanks would struggle in a low oxygen/high terrain environment. After China’s 2008 Parade showing many new weapons systems to the public, many of these systems ended up being retired or put in rear units of the PLA after a few short years, despite being of a modern 2008 design. Tanks such as the ZTZ96B has similar characteristics to the newer T-72 versions and would suit both Russian and Ukrainian forces well in their conflict. Anti-aircraft systems like China’s PGZ-04A/PGZ95 is already largely being replaced by the PGZ09, and is like a modernised ZSU-23-4 Shilka, and would suit the anti-drone defence for Ukraine better than most of the early 80s Gepards currently being used. While it might be considered as a long shot to purchase armament from China for Ukraine, there have been many licensing agreements and commercial connections between Ukraine’s allies, particularly France and Germany, and it cannot be assumed that China would forgo a benefit to themselves for the sake of Russia in every instance. With China’s equipment being standard with many Soviet era artillery rounds, both Ukraine and Russia could integrate those systems with ease on the battlefield.

India’s currently has the license to produce the Russian designed T-90 tank and has production facilities making them in India for India’s armed forces. While it is unclear whether or not Russia has the ability to block exports of the Indian produced T-90 in their licensing agreement, India’s security situation requires an independent source for arms in the event its population is threatened. Due to India’s significance in its region and globally, they have been able to maintain relations with both sides of the conflict without enduring much pressure from either party. Besides equipment from France, India’s military has always sourced much of its equipment from non-NATO nations despite being the world’s largest democracy and having close ties to the West and its values. India has recently backed away from purchasing some modern Russian equipment after seeing the performance of the T-72/T-90 platform in Ukraine. India may be willing to sell part of its T-90 production if it can be compensated with other platforms as countries like Poland had chosen to do in displacing its T-72 based PT-91 Twardy tanks. While relational issues India might have with the West or Russia in selling T-90s to either side would be a topic of debate, any increased immediate threat to India, the region, or the larger world from India’s adversaries will push India to rapidly and unapologetically support its own best interests. India has already taken to supplying some weapons support to Armenia, even when Armenia has been abandoned by both traditional ally Russia, and the United States as the new player in the Caucasus region.

It may be the case that the usefulness of the traditional tank, with a large 125mm cannon and heavy ammunition, may not be the best system to use on the battlefield with so many threats from below the ground to nearly invisible drones above. Many weapons systems like the M2 Bradley use an autocannon to achieve its mission success and rely on speed, rapid fire and crew visibility in assaulting enemy positions and even challenging tanks themselves. The offensive use of Anti-Tank guided missiles can destroy most modern tanks and active and passive protection systems can be effective on systems using thinner armour. The Russian system called BMPT Terminator uses two BMP-2 style autocannons and four anti-tank missiles based on a T-72 hull designed as a response to tanks losses experienced in urban settings in Chechnya. This system uses modern vision and targeting equipment, and was initially one of the most feared systems to be encountered in Ukraine. These lighter systems may take over the role of the main battle tanks in future conflicts. The idea of having unmanned armoured vehicles may already be fielded in Ukraine. The Russian Uran-9 is essentially a drone armoured vehicle with an autocannon and anti-tank missiles akin to something you might see in an 1980s sci-fi movie, minus the growling and creepy voice. While many of these manned and unmanned tanks will be integrated with their own aerial drone support mechanisms, the war in Ukraine has established certain technologies over others, and will continue to do so as long as fighting continues in the region. We are at the cusp of the final stockpiles from the end of the Cold War, with no signs of less conflict in the world in 2024.