European Peace Institute / News

On Wednesday, March 16th, the Independent Commission on Multilateralism (ICM) hosted a Public Consultation on two of its Discussion Papers: “The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and Addressing Climate Change” and “The Relationship between the UN and Regional Organizations, Civil Society, the Private Sector, and NGOs.” This joint Public Consultation provided a platform for representatives from member states, civil society, non-governmental organizations, the private sector, academia, and the United Nations to comment on the Discussion Papers’ recommendations and exchange perspectives on the larger trends and challenges at hand.

Click here to view the event video on YouTube>>

The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, both universally applicable, were adopted with an unprecedented sense of ownership by member states. The relevant ICM Discussion Paper addresses the key opportunities and challenges for the UN system as it moves towards the implementation of these agreements, while examining the links between sustainable development, climate change, and peace and security. In April, the UN will be convening high-level meetings on the 2030 Agenda and the signing of the Paris Agreement. As highlighted in the Discussion Paper, implementation will require that the UN not only change its working methods and updates its structures, but also build new and existing partnerships across the multilateral system.

In analyzing an increasingly complex and crowded international system, the second ICM Discussion Paper focuses on the UN’s relationship to three groups: regional organizations; civil society and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); and the private sector. It also asks how the UN system can better leverage relations with and among these actors and institutions for a more efficient and legitimate international system. Whether concerning the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals or cooperation in peacekeeping or emergencies, the UN must strive to improve its relations and partnerships with civil society, the private sector, and regional organizations if it is to remain capable of fulfilling its mandate.

Discussants:
Dr. David Nabarro, Special Advisor of the United Nations Secretary-General, 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
Ms. Minh-Thu Pham, Executive Director of Policy, United Nations Foundation
Ms. Jimena Leiva-Roesch, Policy Analyst, International Peace Institute
Dr. Adam Lupel, Director of Research and Publications, International Peace Institute

Moderator:
H.E. Mr. Hardeep Singh Puri, Secretary-General, Independent Commission on Multilateralism

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Lebanon has long been a model of relative stability in the Middle East, but with economic, political and security strains on the country, Sigrid Kaag, United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon (UNSCOL), said that stability is very fragile.

“I often get very worried when we applaud and recognize Lebanon’s resilience,” she said, speaking at a March 15, 2016 event entitled “How to Keep Lebanon Stable in an Unstable Region.” “That doesn’t mean we can take our eye off the ball for a very split second.”

The international community, and Europe in particular, cannot ignore the mounting crisis in Lebanon, as it is a keystone of regional stability, she said.

She emphasized the importance of investing in Lebanese institutions. “If you do not want further problems to come your way, invest… in Lebanon’s stability and security, including through assistance for refugees, but not only,” she said. “Take stabilization as an ambitious agenda and build that.”

Ten years on from UN Security Council Resolution 1701 on Lebanon, Kaag emphasized that unlike previous UN mandates, which had only given the UN authority in the Southern border area, today, “We don’t split a country, we look at it holistically.”

“We’ve adopted, with the support of the Security Council, a whole of Lebanon approach, and that requires a whole of system support mechanism with international support,” she said.

With international attention for the Middle East primarily focused on the failure to find a political solution to the Syrian civil war, and the resulting refugee crisis, Lebanese leaders need to “focus on managing affairs of state by their own hands,” she said.

After nearly two years without a head of state, her first recommendation on stabilizing Lebanon at IPI March 15th 2016, was for the country to “elect a president without fail.” The parliament has failed 35 times to attract a quorum to hold a vote.

“We need to create all prospects for national elections in 2017,” she said.

And Lebanon needs to act on its own, she said. “Do not wait for anyone from the region, shield your own country from regional tensions.”

Without a chief executive, key aspects of Lebanon’s public sector cannot function, she explained. “Decisions do not get adopted, laws do not get passed, politics has become more and more fractured, and there is a delay in executive life of the state,” she said. “You can erode your own country without violence, and that’s what we see in Lebanon.”

The absence of a political process is making the population restive, she said. “As you know, the less you have elections, the more the gap between political elite and class,” she said.

Disenfranchisement of Lebanon’s large refugee community poses acute challenges, she said. Lebanon hosts approximately 50,000 Palestinian refugees, and an additional 1.3 million Syrian refugees followed last year.

“Refugees which came from Syria are twice or three times displaced,” when they reach Lebanon, she pointed out. “It is a repeat lifecycle of displacement.”

The UN Refugee Agency, (UNHCR), reported that with further refugee flows anticipated, the country’s “exceptional hospitality will be extremely stretched.”

Answering a question about Lebanon’s Palestinian refugees, she said, “The more marginalized you are, the less access you have to opportunities and assistance.”

While being careful not to make generalizations about any one ethnic or socioeconomic refugee group, she did acknowledge that the most desperate among these refugees might be prone to narratives that lead to thier radicalization by extremists.

Kaag said that the goals of addressing the refugee crisis, and improving stability in Lebanon, go together. However, to achieve both, there must be a shift in mindset.

“We need to look at creating employment opportunities for the Lebanese, and under certain conditions, the Syrian refugees,” she said. “Syrian refugees are an asset, they don’t have to be a liability. The more we invest in education, the more we can employ where possible, Syrian refugees.”

Reflecting on the failure of European institutions to meet the needs of the migrants flowing to the continent, Kaag praised Lebanon’s institutions for giving refugees rights and dignity in their country.

“There is no OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)-DAC (Development Assistance Committee) country that could manage 400,000 children, as new school arrivals, [with] language deficits, and war traumatized, in a five-year period,” she said. “This is a tremendous achievement, with all the obstacles, but that is to be expected. The achievement is tremendous, and that is really to Lebanon’s credit.”

The event was held as part of IPI’s Special Representatives of the Secretary-General (SRSG) Series.

IPI Senior Adviser for External Relations, Warren Hoge, moderated the conversation.

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On Thursday, March 17th, IPI co-hosted a policy forum event to discuss how the Women, Peace, and Security and Youth, Peace, and Security agendas complement and mutually reinforce each other.

Click here to view the event video on YouTube>>

The UN Security Council’s (UNSC) adoption of Resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace and Security in December 2015 was a historic milestone in realizing young people’s contribution to the maintenance and promotion of international peace and security by acknowledging the central role they play in global peace efforts.

This resolution complements and reinforces the Women, Peace, and Security agenda (including UN Security Council Resolution 1325) by supporting the work of young peacebuilders and helping raise the voices of girls, boys, young women, and young men working for peace and stability, while also reminding decision makers of the role of civil society in sustaining peace throughout the world. Effective implementation of UNSC Resolution 2250 can create more space for youth to directly contribute to reducing the drivers of fragility in their communities—including by supporting gender equality and inclusive development, as well as the promotion of a culture of peace.

Speakers discussed how the Women, Peace, and Security community can support the Youth, Peace and Security community in monitoring and implementing UNSC Resolution 2250, taking into account the lessons learned from the implementation of UNSC Resolution 1325.

This event was in partnership with the Permanent Missions of Italy and Jordan to the United Nations, the UN Peacebuilding Support Office, the UN Population Fund (UNFPA); UN Women; the United Network of Young Peacebuilders (UNOY Peacebuilders); Cordaid; the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP); and the Working Group on Youth & Peacebuilding.

Welcoming remarks:
H.E. Benedetto Della Vedova, Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation for Italy
H.E. Dina Kawar, Permanent Representative of Jordan to the UN
Video Message: Ahmad Alhendawi, UN Secretary-General’s Envoy on Youth

Speakers:
Hajer Sharief, Together We Build, Libya, representing UNOY Peacebuilders
Sölvi Karlsson, Leading Coordinator, UNOY Peacebuilders
Hon. Betty Ogwaro, member of the National Legislative Assembly of the Republic of South Sudan and representative of the GNWP
Laura Londén, Deputy Executive Director, UNFPA

Moderator:
Youssef Mahmoud, Senior Adviser, IPI

The UN system, member states, and national and local partners face complex challenges in deploying UN peace operations in countries where there is not only little or no peace to keep but also, increasingly, a threat of terrorism and violent extremism. The UN is increasingly asked to “stay and deliver,” forcing it to review its capacity to operate safely and effectively in such environments. This has implications not only for budgets and staff safety but also for the UN’s core business of promoting lasting peace through political solutions.

This meeting note aims to explore the political and practical challenges, opportunities, and implications for UN peace operations of operating in complex security environments, particularly when operating in parallel with a non-UN counterterrorism force.

The report stems from a roundtable IPI’s Center for Peace Operations organized in New York on February 11, 2016, in partnership with the French Ministry of Defense’s Directorate General for International Relations and Strategy (DGRIS). This roundtable was part of the three-year “New Issues Observatory” project, a series of research papers and roundtables examining “new” issues in peace operations.

Although participants agreed that the UN is not the right actor for engaging in counterterrorism operations, they also concluded that the UN is not irrelevant in asymmetric threat environments and can play a useful role in its core activities of protecting civilians and facilitating political processes. However, a number of areas for strategic and operational improvements were suggested:

• There is a need for improved understanding of the context and planning of missions before deploying them, including through liaisons and cooperation with regional organizations.
• Peace operations should have clear mandates and appropriate postures and should be adequately resourced and capacitated for operating safely in such environments.
• Missions should have the ability to adequately monitor what happens in their environments by deploying intelligence capacities and making sure these are well integrated into the mission.
• Missions need to become more people-centric.

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Evolution is better than revolution was one sentiment expressed on the future of the Middle East at this Global Leaders Forum with Tony Blair, former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Successful societies come from an open-minded society that promotes religious tolerance and an economy that is rule-based, according to participants who are of the opinion that it is better for the Middle East if it would strive to evolve.

Reasons behind the Arab Spring range from frustrated youth, rise of social media, mixture of bad politics, weak institutions, and lack of clarity around the role of religion in government, according to participants.

The session, held on March 1, 2016, was moderated by IPI MENA Director Nejib Friji and included representatives from government, ambassadors, various religious figures, businesswomen and men, media leaders, and civil society representatives.

The meeting focused on the recent developments in Syria, Iraq, Palestine, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and other Middle Eastern and North African countries. In this regard, the participants agreed on the need to unite all efforts to tackle violent extremism. The discussion had a wide range of views on attempts to de-stabilize successful countries, arguing they will have unpleasant consequences.

The IPI initiative on regional cooperation and integration was discussed as an important approach to seek an end to divisions, conflicts, and lay the ground for sustainable cooperation for development between the large number of nations in the region and the neighborhood.  Comments went that societies work best when they are pluralistic and there was a need to create a society in which people can tolerate disagreement.

Attention was drawn to the plight of the refugees in Jordan, stressing that one out of five people in Jordan is a Syrian refugee.

The session concluded with the sentiment that religious leaders have a powerful role in promoting peace and tolerance and in educating people of their faith not to be disrespectful to other religions.

The event was part of IPI’s Global Leaders Series.

On Friday, February 26th the Independent Commission on Multilateralism (ICM) hosted its 14th retreat on Empowering Global Youth.

Click here to view the event video on YouTube>>

The aim of the ICM’s retreat on Empowering Global Youth is to review how global challenges facing young people have been portrayed and analyzed within multilateral circles and take a critical look at the policies and practices for addressing them.

Following various breakout groups, from Economic Empowerment to Education, Implementation of the 2030 Agenda to Social and Political Inclusion, and Media and Messaging to Preventing Violent Extremism, the wrap-up sessions provided an opportunity for all participants to voice their thoughts and policy recommendations for the multilateral system.

On February 18th, IPI hosted a Distinguished Author Series event featuring Scott Shane, author of Objective Troy: A Terrorist, a President, and the Rise of the Drone.

Click here to view the event video on Ustream>>

“Objective Troy” was the military code name for Anwar al-Awlaki, the charismatic American jihadi targeted and killed by an American drone in Yemen in 2011-the first US citizen deliberately hunted down and executed on the order of a president without trial or court order. The book tells the unsettling story of how this once-celebrated and widely cited American imam who called for moderation after 9/11 and was invited to speak at the Pentagon ultimately directed his outsized talents to plotting the mass murder of his fellow citizens.

And it recounts how President Obama directed the mammoth machinery of spy agencies to hunt Awlaki down in a frantic pursuit that would end with a missile fired using the new robotic technology that has changed the nature of warfare and provided the Obama Administration with its anti-terrorism weapon of choice–the drone. It follows how the reaction to the excesses of the Bush counterterrorism effort led a president steeped in constitutional law to become an advocate of an extra-judicial killing of an American. In its commentary on Objective Troy, The New York Times Sunday Book Review said, “Governmental policy has not facilitated the needed debate about drones and counterterrorism, but this readable and skillfully reported book will surely move us toward that fuller discussion.”

The event was moderated by IPI Senior Adviser for External Relations Warren Hoge.

On February 5th, IPI, together with the inter-agency Working Group on Youth and Peacebuilding, and the Permanent Missions of Jordan and Sweden, will cohost a policy forum focusing on UN Security Council Resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace and Security and its implementation, as well as opportunities for young people’s participation in peacebuilding today and in the future.

Click here for the live webcast beginning at 1:15pm EST>>

The adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2250 on Youth, Peace and Security marks the historical achievement of having the UN Security Council formally recognize that young people play an important and positive role in the maintenance and promotion of international peace and security.

The resolution was sponsored by the Government of Jordan and is a direct follow-up to the Global Forum on Youth, Peace and Security held in August 2015, as well as the Security Council’s Open Debate on the Role of Youth in Countering Violent Extremism and Promoting Peace held in April 2015. UNSC Resolution 2250 was co-sponsored by Angola, Chad, Chile, France, Lithuania, New Zealand, Nigeria, Spain, the UK, the US, and Venezuela.

Speakers:
Warren Hoge, Senior Adviser for External Relations
H.E. Dina Kawar, Permanent Representative of Jordan to the United Nations
H.E. Olof Skoog, Permanent Representative of Sweden to the United Nations
H.E. Jan Eliasson, UN Deputy Secretary-General
Martine Ekomo-Soignet, founder of the youth-led peacebuilding organization “URU” Central African Republic
Saba Ismail, Executive Director of Aware Girls and representative of United Network of Young Peacebuilders (UNOY Peacebuilders)
Yasmine Nasser El Masri, Project Coordinator at Search for Common Ground’s Lebanon office
Cécile Mazzacurati, Peacebuilding Support Office/Co-Chair of the Working Group on Youth and Peacebuilding

Moderator:
Saji Prelis, Program Director, Search for Common Ground/Co-Chair of the Working Group on Youth and Peacebuilding

Violent extremism has become a dominant problem in the Sahel-Sahara region in the last couple of years. An increasing array of nonstate actors are threatening the state and the safety of populations while at the same time taking on a transnational character and increasing ties and affiliations with actors beyond the francophone space. Despite the urgency of this critical threat, current responses of states in the region seem to be uncoordinated and inadequate.

This meeting note, written in French with an English summary included as an annex, aims to contribute toward better mutual understanding of violent extremism in the Sahel-Sahara region and its underlying causes. It also outlines a number of potential regional, national, and community responses.

The report stems from a seminar IPI organized in Tunis, Tunisia, from December 7 to 8, 2015, in partnership with the International Organisation of La Francophonie (OIF) and the Centre for Strategies and Security for the Sahel Sahara (Centre 4S, Nouakchott, Mauritania).

The following are among the recommendations that emerged from the seminar’s discussions:

• Analyze, Disseminate, and Communicate: Local actors could benefit from greater access to research, analysis, and lessons learned from other contexts. In addition, local researchers could be supported in developing their own knowledge and narratives, and media could be encouraged to adopt a more positive and analytical approach to covering violent extremism.
• Promote a Culture of Dialogue and a Dialogue of Cultures: A culture of dialogue must be promoted both between and within different cultures and religions, as well as between the state and religious actors. This dialogue should extend to the regional level.
• Rethink State-Society Relations: Increased space for dialogue among different actors in society is needed to help the state engage in more long-term preventive solutions. Such solutions could include reaching out to youth and preventing the manipulation of religious discourse.
• Invest in Prevention: Regional integration could help find common preventive strategies for the francophone space. This integration should not be limited to cooperation among states.

Read more about the seminar>>

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The Middle East/North Africa region and Europe are linked more now than ever, said IPI President Terje Rød-Larsen during IPI MENA’s first annual advisory council meeting on January 20, 2016. The meeting was attended by members of the diplomatic and business communities, representatives from Christian, Jewish and Muslim faiths, and civil society activists.

Mr. Rød-Larsen said that the rise of radical ideologies—similar to Europe’s Nazi, fascist and Stalinist movements in the 20th century—are leading to increasing religious polarization in Europe. The triple threat of violent extremism, desperate migration and regional instability, he said, can be countered with a three-pronged approach of regional cooperation, prevention and protection.

IPI’s President further stressed the importance of bringing key regional players together as a means to develop regional cooperation, noting the irony that the MENA region does not have a prominent seat in the Iran negotiations with the Permanent 5 members.

Mr. Rød-Larsen introduced the regional integration initiative that IPI, in partnership with the World Bank, will launch in the coming months. The homegrown initiative will take the form of a task force, involving regional leaders with its secretariat at IPI, MENA.

Nejib Friji, IPI MENA Director, briefed the audience on the activities undertaken in 2015, and introduced the key projects for 2016, including the regional integration task force, an interreligious dialogue initiative, Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) task force, a series of workshops on the themes of protest, unrest and state-society relations, and preserving world heritage in armed conflict.

In addition, IPI MENA will host regular conferences and presentations with distinguished speakers under IPI’s “Global Leaders” program.

Participants engaged into a substantive discussion on the submitted agenda items.

Francesco Mancini, Non-resident Senior Adviser at IPI, tells TRT World that the United Nations remains a “relevant body for world decision-making,” despite deadlock among its members about the way forward for Syria and the refugee crisis.

He offered two suggestions for UN reform. He said it was necessary to better equip peacekeepers for asymmetric warfare. He also said that finding a way to make emerging powers “be more engaged,” and have “more space to make decisions,” would be how the organization could remain relevant in the 21st century.

Related coverage:
Managing Change at the United Nations: Lessons from Recent Initiatives

The Syrian crisis has disrupted education trajectories for Syrian youth both inside and outside Syria. The lack of learning opportunities further destabilizes the lives of young refugees, making them more vulnerable to various forms of exploitation and susceptible to extremist ideologies. While these risks are widely recognized, education programming tends to focus on younger children and basic education, leaving out the needs of youth.

The latest report by IPI attempts to bridge this gap by focusing on education for Syrian youth in Jordan. Drawing on interviews conducted in Jordan, the report considers challenges for Syrian adolescents and youth, and it offers recommendations for how to improve youth programming in emergencies both in Syria and in other contexts.

The report focuses on challenges particularly relevant to Syrian youth (a contested concept, but commonly defined as 15- to 24-year-olds). These include:

• Humanitarian programming does not systematically target youth.
• Education programs tend to focus on younger children.
• The Jordanian government restricts vocational training for Syrian youth.
• Some Syrian students struggle with differences between the Jordanian and Syrian curricula.
• Many students face bullying in school.
• The cost of transportation is an economic burden that keeps some youth out of school.
• Young men are often more concerned about finding work than pursuing education.
• Young women often want to pursue higher education but cannot afford it.

The report concludes by offering three recommendations for how to improve youth programming in emergencies:

• A Holistic Approach: Emergency responses should develop a youth strategy that addresses the needs of youth and their connection to other areas such as education, health, and livelihoods. This could take place through youth taskforces at the local, national, or even regional levels.
• Minimum Standards for refugee education programs should be established from the start. Such standards could tie into an international system for certifying learning achievements.
• A Transition Plan for what will happen next in refugee graduates’ lives should be developed. This could include long-term vocational training, income-generating projects, and opening particular employment sectors to refugees.

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On December 16, IPI Vienna hosted a meeting on peace polling with keynote speaker Colin Irwin of the University of Liverpool. Peace polls are public opinion polls designed to test a series of questions and seek to identify common ground on which a peace process can move forward. Unlike market surveys or binary polls designed to give a yes or no answer, peace polls present a range of choices from “essential” on one side to “unacceptable” on the other, with “desirable, “acceptable” and “tolerable” options in-between. In such a way, red lines become evident, but so too do possible second choices around which compromise can be sought.

The process of peace polling can be considered a confidence-building measure. All stakeholders, including adversaries, are invited to draft suitable questions, and also take part in analyzing the results. This encourages their buy-in to the process, and makes it harder for them to dismiss the results.

Irwin described peace polling as a way of “bringing the people to the negotiating table.” He also explained that it is a useful way of testing policy options that can prepare the ground for mediation. Peace polls can disprove a leader’s assertion that his or her people do not support a particular policy. Conversely, they can be used to prepare the public for proposals that have been agreed behind closed doors. In both respects, peace polls can play a vital role in “ripening” a peace process through public policy. It also makes peace processes more inclusive.

Peace polling was used extensively, and successfully, in the Northern Ireland peace process. The methodology was also applied in the Balkans, Kashmir, Sri Lanka, Cyprus, Darfur, and the Middle East. Irwin sees great potential for the technique to be applied in Syria.

Irwin’s interest in peace polling stems in large part from a decade that he spent living with the Inuit in the Canadian Artic. He explained how Inuit councils deliberate until there is consensus. A mediator listens to the divergent views and then seeks a solution acceptable to all. All parties may not get what they want, but they will at least get what they need.

Participants discussed how peace polling could be applied to the so-called “frozen” conflicts in the OSCE area.

Colin Irwin’s book The People’s Peace is available here: http://www.peacepolls.org/peacepolls/documents/002539.pdf

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Can trade and energy cooperation promote peace? On December 14, an IPI Vienna meeting discussed the possibilities and limitations of peace and economic connectivity between Europe and Asia; the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU); and across unrecognized boundaries, for example within states where there have been “frozen” or protracted conflicts. The potential role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in promoting economic connectivity was also discussed. The meeting, “Economic Connectivity,” was part of IPI’s Swiss-funded “Peace Incubator” project.

Pipelines, train tracks, roads, water lines, and power cables connect communities and states and provide the lifeblood for economic development. While their disruption for political reasons, as seen in the recent case of Crimea, can hamper living conditions, such arteries of trade can also help to promote greater understanding and improve well-being which, in turn, can contribute to stability and good-neighborly relations. That said, it was observed that economic connectivity alone is no guarantee of peace: Europe was highly integrated in terms of trade in 1914, but this did not avert a war.

Participants discussed what steps could be taken to reduce politicization of economic relations between the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian halves of the OSCE area, in what is sometimes described as the “integration of integrations” between EU and the EaEU. It was suggested that ways should be found to help states (like Armenia, Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine) to build bridges between the EU and EaEU rather than being forced to make a “false choice” between them. The trilateral talks between the EU, Ukraine and Russia were cited as a positive example, as was relations between Turkey and a number of partners. It was also noted that members of both unions should harmonize their rules and standards in line with commitments of the World Trade Organization. Several participants stressed the importance of a “small step” policy rather than working towards the grand design of a common pan-European economic space.

A lively discussion focused on how economic cooperation could help to de-escalate tensions in and around Ukraine, and rebuild trust and cooperation in Europe. It was noted, for example in the context of trade and energy, that there is a high level of co-dependence between Russia and many EU countries, and therefore incentives for cooperation. At the same time, the crisis is forcing traditional trade partners to diversify their products and markets. Some participants stressed the role that economic cooperation can play as part of wider efforts to enhance stability while others warned that trade cannot operate in a political vacuum or reward bad behavior.

One participant pointed out the importance of rules in the context of trade. In the same way that states need the rule of law for legitimacy at home and predictability abroad, connectivity can only work effectively if investors can operate in an environment that they trust.

There was a detailed discussion on the impact of energy on security (and vice versa), particularly Russian oil and gas. It was noted that Russia has an over-supply of gas, that demand is dropping, and that Russia is pivoting to Asia. The impact of other geo-political changes, for example in Iran, Turkey and the Gulf, and their impact on energy markets were also discussed.

Participants discussed whether or not there is a role for the OSCE in promoting economic connectivity. One participant pointed out that this has been part of the OSCE’s work since the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, and now takes on a renewed significance. It was noted that, moving forward, discussions on this topic within the OSCE should involve the business community. This will be one of Germany’s priorities during its Chairmanship of the OSCE in 2016. It was noted that the recent report by the OSCE Panel of Eminent Persons included recommendations designed to increase the OSCE’s work in the field of economic connectivity. Furthermore, it was recalled that the 2010 OSCE Astana Summit Declaration called for an intensification of energy security dialogue.

Several participants suggested that science diplomacy and energy diplomacy could build bridges at a time when traditional diplomacy faces gridlock, and gave examples of on-going initiatives.

Participants discussed economic connectivity in the context of building confidence among parties to protracted conflicts. It was noted that identifying common economic interests and facilitating or regulating trade – even among parties that do not officially recognize each other – can create mutually beneficial incentives. The cases of China/Taiwan, Serbia/Kosovo, Cyprus as well as Georgia/Abkhazia were cited. This is an area of work where IPI intends to increase its activities, potentially in Moldova.

On December 16th, The Independent Commission on Multilateralism (ICM) will host a Public Consultation on its Discussion Paper: “Fragile States and Fragile Cities.” This Public Consultation will provide a platform for representatives from member states, civil society, the private sector, academia, and the United Nations to comment on the Discussion Paper’s recommendations and exchange perspectives on the larger trends and challenges at hand.

Click here for the live webcast beginning at 1:45pm EST>>

Nearly 1.2 billion people live in fragile states, including one‐third of the world’s poor. Challenges emerging from fragile states, such as transnational threats, regional spillovers, local insecurity, and underdevelopment require the attention of multilateral institutions. While there is no agreed upon definition of a “fragile state,” limited institutional capacity and weak governance—particularly in combination with structural political and economic exclusion—are evident as main factors of fragility.

More recently, cities as urban systems susceptible to damage incurred by shocks to infrastructure, and ecological, social, economic, and political systems have emerged as a concept of fragility in the peace and security landscape. With unprecedentedly fast urbanization rates, cities are becoming the focal point of global poverty, conflict, and vulnerability to disasters—particularly when situated within a “fragile state.”

As policy-makers move beyond “fragile states” to “states of fragility,” important shortcomings persist in the United Nations and the multilateral system in addressing fragility and building resilience in states and cities. These gaps are conceptual and analytical; institutional; financial; engagement-related; and gender and youth-related. Despite its limitations, the concept of fragility has enhanced the linkage not just among international, national, and human security, but also among security, development, and governance needs, including issues of food, water, health, and environment.

Discussants:
Ms. Andrea Ó Súilleabháin, Senior Policy Analyst, International Peace Institute
H.E. Mrs. Makurita Baaro, Permanent Representative, Permanent Mission of the Republic of Kiribati to the United Nations
Mr. Seth Kaplan, Lecturer, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University

Moderator:
H.E. Mr. Hardeep Singh Puri, Secretary-General, Independent Commission on Multilateralism

On December 16th, the Independent Commission on Multilateralism (ICM) will host a Public Consultation on its Discussion Paper: “Forced Displacement, Refugees, and Migration.” This Public Consultation will provide a platform for representatives from member states, civil society, the private sector, academia, and the United Nations to comment on the Discussion Paper’s recommendations and exchange perspectives on the larger trends and challenges at hand.

Click here for the live webcast beginning at 11:45am EST>>

The exponential rise of forced displacement, including massive migration and refugee flows, has shocked the consciences of peoples and unsettled institutions worldwide. As the humanitarian space is shrinking, many on the move today are increasingly desperate and seeking protection.

The scale and complexity of the current challenge is testing the limits of the multilateral structures that have been created in the past seventy years. These were designed to deal with displacement at a smaller scale and at a slower pace than the challenges we face at present. Indeed, migration numbers are at an all-time high and we simultaneously face the largest refugee crisis in the history of the United Nations.

This paper addresses the current state of migration, displacement, and refugee flows. It outlines the shortcomings of the multilateral system, and particularly those of the UN, in adapting and responding to this unprecedented level of human mobility. From the immediate crisis stemming from Syria to the need for long term solutions, the paper provides a set of recommendations to improve the efficacy and efficiency of the multilateral system’s responses through a holistic approach.

Discussants:
Ms. Jimena Leiva Roesch, Policy Analyst, International Peace Institute
Mr. Stéphane Bonamy, Delegate, International Committee of the Red Cross
Ms. Anne-Christine Eriksson, Deputy Director, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, New York

Moderator:
H.E. Mr. Hardeep Singh Puri, Secretary-General, Independent Commission on Multilateralism

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Participants in a multi-stakeholder dialogue in Tunis, Tunisia, analyzed the problems of terrorism and violent extremism in the Sahel, the Sahara, and beyond, December 7th and 8th. The conclusions of the seminar will feed into the development of the “Global Action Plan for Francophone Countries to Fight Terrorism,” and inform IPI’s ongoing work in the area.

Participants included women, youth, religious and traditional authorities, representatives of governments, as well as members of the private sector. These 45 participants came from Francophone countries such as Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Chad, France, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Switzerland, and Tunisia.

The Francophone participants aimed to offer some recommendations that can fill a gap in current literature and debates on violent extremism. An Anglophone community of researchers currently dominates the field, and the focus is primarily on security and military issues.

By contrast, this seminar aimed at building a common understanding of the strategic value of prevention and developing proper mechanisms and tools of preventing violent extremism (PVE).

IPI co-hosted the seminar with the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) and the Centre for Security in the Sahel Sahara.

On December 2nd, IPI together with the Permanent Missions of Italy and Namibia to the UN cohosted the screening of the documentary film on peacekeeping entitled “The United Nations: The Last Station Before Hell.”

Click here to view the event video on YouTube*>>

In 2015, the United Nations is celebrating its 70th anniversary. Among other innovations, members of the UN devised the novel concept of “soldiers for peace.” But can peace be enforced militarily? The original mission of the United Nations was “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war” by maintaining peace and security between states. Now that terrorists and internal conflicts strike far more frequently than traditional inter-state wars, what does international security mean?

For millions of people in conflict zones, UN peacekeepers serve to contain violence, representing “the last station before hell.” From the UN’s oldest mission in Lebanon, to the largest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to the newest in the Central African Republic, this film explores the central challenges in UN peacekeeping through field investigations and interviews with key decision makers.

Speakers:
H.E. Mr. Hervé Ladsous, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations
Mr. Pierre-Olivier François, Documentary Film Director
Dr. Lise Morjé Howard, Associate Professor of Government, Georgetown University (and Special Adviser for the film)

Moderator:
Mr. Warren Hoge, Senior Adviser for External Relations

*Please note: The webcast includes only the trailer of the film, and not the documentary in its entirety.

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United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Afghanistan Nicholas Haysom told an IPI audience that the country faced three transitions—security, economic, and political—and must manage them all to survive. “It has no option,” he said. “It can’t do two out of three and pass. If it goes down on the economy or on the security, or politically unravels, all three would be terminal.”

Mr. Haysom, head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), said the country would face critical tests at upcoming donor conferences in Warsaw and Brussels.

“Afghanistan is aid dependent, and the challenges it faces requires at least the same level of aid in a context in which there are a number of other conflicts making demands for the donor community, and the international community generally, because already, many of the donor countries have agreed to take money to meet the demands arising out of the influx of migrants, out of the development aid budget,” he said.

“So Afghanistan faces these two events with the task of persuading the international community that it has so managed its transition that it is worth investing in.”

On the economic transition, he asserted that despite more than a decade of foreign aid, the level of poverty in the country is unchanged since 2001. Hopes for mineral wealth proved illusory, he said, and even the agricultural industry has suffered, with foods once exported for profit now being imported. The formerly booming transport and construction sectors have also crashed.

In the capital, there is pervasive joblessness. “What we have in Kabul might be described by some as a pre-Arab Spring moment, where youth with higher expectations are meeting a situation in which there are simply no jobs,” he said.

The year 2014 began a number of changes that complicated the security transition for Afghanistan, he said. A Government of National Unity was formed, including the newly elected President, Ashraf Ghani, and his onetime chief political rival, Abdullah Abdullah, as its Chief Executive. At the same time, the responsibility for combatting the Taliban was assumed by the Afghan National Security forces after the departure of international forces.

A key question facing the country’s future is whether the government, the Taliban, and the neighboring government in Pakistan recognize that the situation is ripe to make peace. “There are certainly pockets within the Taliban that appreciate that a future Afghanistan cannot be administered by one party, and who recognize that at the end of the day there needs to be a political solution,” he said.

While the Afghan and Pakistani governments have gone on the record to state their ultimate ambition is a negotiated solution, this has not translated into action by President Ghani yet. “The government is yet to establish its architecture for engaging in a peace process,” he said.

As for progress for engagement with the Taliban, the governmental body tasked with doing so since 2010, the High Peace Council, “has been in stasis for over a year,” he said. This, he said, is because the “government has recognized that there is limited space domestically for it to engage in a peace process.”

Summarizing his recommendations for the economic, political, and security transitions, Mr. Haysom said, “Viability for Afghanistan requires success over the transition, requires a Government of National Unity to stay together, requires Afghan National Security Forces to hold the ground, requires the economy not to suffer a major default, and it requires the international community to be forthcoming in Warsaw and Brussels.”

He also said that donors would want to see progress in constructing and improving a system for elections before pledging funds to Afghanistan in 2016. The international community “will not be forthcoming in Warsaw and Brussels unless there is demonstrable progress, in the reforms, notably the anti-corruption reforms inside Afghanistan, and one thing we haven’t mentioned, the donor countries, if only for their own domestic constituents, will want to see proof of further democratization in Afghanistan.”

Asked if the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) had made inroads into the country, he said the extent of their presence is still unclear, but that the UN does not “take it lightly.”

He said that this non-state actor presents a unique challenge for the UN, an organization of states. “We believe that whereas the Taliban generally have some respect to [the] humanitarian framework, humanitarian workers, UN in general, ISIS doesn’t, and that our staff would be targets, for both abduction and symbolic attacks, and it really does effect” UN planning, he said.

For UNAMA, “as a mission with 13 field offices across the country, we have to have as good a reading as we can of the ISIS presence, and threats to our staff and operations.”

He also added that Afghans had become the second most populous refugee group, behind those fleeing the Syrian civil war. “We don’t underestimate the number of Afghans,” he said. “They are clearly #2 just after Syrians and in some cases surpassing even Syrians, according to my European colleagues in Kabul.”

He said he considers part of his job encouraging the Taliban to speak with the government of Afghanistan. “My own position with them, that I shared with them, is that there can be no progress towards peace if you don’t engage with the government because that is the only way in which you can strike real bargains, reach compromises, or at the minimum reach agreements that would serve as the basis for arrangements by which Afghans live in peace together.”

The event was held as part of IPI’s Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) series.

Warren Hoge, IPI Senior Adviser for External Relations, moderated the discussion.

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United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres told an IPI audience that as millions of refugees flee war and persecution, the multilateral system has failed to mobilize the resources necessary to move them to safety in a dignified and efficient way.

“The humanitarian response system is today financially broke,” the High Commissioner said. “We are no longer able to provide the minimum needed for both core protection and lifesaving assistance.”

The uncoordinated responses of development and humanitarian actors are inadequate for a crisis of this magnitude, he emphasized. The “business model is to a certain extent exhausted,” he said. “We have been essentially on a care and maintenance model, with solutions dwindling, and with the possibility to ensure the suffering of refugees severely limited,” he said.

Humanitarians and development agencies not only need more funding, but also have to engage with one another from the outset of a crisis.

“For me, what is absolutely crucial is to understand that it no longer makes sense to talk about the gap between humanitarian aid and development cooperation, with this idea that first humanitarians address the crisis, and then the development actors come, to guarantee the sustainability of the solutions,” he said. “Now we came to a situation in which humanitarians and development actors need to be acting together since the very beginning of a crisis.”

The November 20th event, “Leadership and Global Partnerships in the Face of Today’s Refugee Crisis,” aimed to contribute to the development of proposals to more effectively help refugees through multilateral cooperation.

IPI Vice President Walter Kemp, the conversation’s moderator, noted concrete steps to help save refugees which had been suggested in the Salzburg Declaration on the Refugee Crisis, drafted by high-level participants at an IPI seminar.

Olof Skoog, Permanent Representative of Sweden to the UN, made opening remarks in which he highlighted his country’s commitment to welcoming refugees. Together with Germany, Sweden has born the brunt of resettlement in the EU. Sweden received the most asylum-seekers per capita in the EU, equal to 2% of the country’s population, he said.

Of Sweden’s priorities for the future, he said, “We strive to ensure that every one of those people receive a dignified [treatment,], and have rights fulfilled and implemented on arrival in Sweden,” he said. “But it is also true that the system has put a lot of strain on our capacity, so another priority is to ensure there is a genuine partnership within the EU and globally to jointly handle migration flows, while safeguarding of course the right to asylum.”

Sweden has been a model in this regard, but many other refugee-hosting countries struggle to provide services for the new arrivals, given the nature of their economies. New kinds of partnerships will be necessary to improve refugee lives in middle-income countries, as well as offer benefits for these states, Mr. Guterres said.

He proposed offering economic support to neighboring countries that have received a total of more than 3 million Syrians—Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey—in exchange for policy changes that could make refugees more self-reliant, such as allowing them to participate in the labor market, and access educational and other public services. These changes are necessary “in order to avoid this current maintenance model that is not only unsustainable from the financial point of view,” but also militates against “the dignity and hope for the future of the refugee community,” he said.

He praised one such agreement between Jordan, the United Kingdom, and the World Bank, which will create industrial zones inside Jordan that will be a source of employment for both Syrians and Jordanians. “This is the kind of formula that is necessary—humanitarian actors, development actors, and the countries—acting together in order to create this kind of win-win situation to ensure that refugees can have a dignified life in the countries of first asylum,” he said.

Many of the top refugee-hosting countries, like Lebanon, Jordan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Niger, and Chad, are important to their regions, Mr. Guterres said. It is essential to ensure these nations have the resources to remain bulwarks against global terrorism. “Unfortunately many of these countries are not a priority in development cooperation, and so, a fundamental review is required,” he emphasized.

The lofty goals of the just agreed to UN Sustainable Development Agenda cannot be achieved without basic security first, he said. “A large part of the poor in today’s world are in conflict areas, and that number is growing, and we cannot have a development strategy at the global level if we do not take seriously into account the problems of global security, and the multiplication of conflicts we are witnessing in today’s world,” he said.

Since 2011, 3.9 million people have fled the Syrian civil war, and 7.6 million have been internally displaced. The High Commissioner described the situation as “the most dramatic of the crises we face.”

In July 2015, as hundreds of thousands risked their lives to leave their war-torn and poverty-stricken countries for Europe, a new crisis emerged. A number of factors influenced this mass migration wave, but “the trigger in my opinion was the reduction of international assistance in 2015,” which had devastating results for the quality of life in Syria and for refugees in neighboring countries, Mr. Guterres said.

He offered three suggestions on Syria, moving forward. Firstly, he said it was essential to establish humanitarian aid at adequate levels inside Syria. Secondly, living conditions would need to improve in neighboring Middle Eastern states serving as countries of first asylum. Finally, illicit smuggling and trafficking networks, operating largely in the open, must be shut down. “This will require cooperation between the EU and Turkey, and this cooperation, I hope, will be established in the near future,” he said.

Mr. Guterres also noted that the journey of refugees to resettlement in Europe would only become more trying as temperatures drop. “I’m afraid that we will have difficult moments on the western Balkan route this winter,” he said.

The High Commissioner said the failure of European institutions to manage this migration flow in an organized way has fostered xenophobia on the continent. He emphasized the power of images in raising fear for host country populations. “The perception from looking at the television day after day after day was that Europe was being invaded by a flow of people, and all of a sudden my village is going to be completely overwhelmed, and government was not in control.”

To manage the influx properly, Europe needs to receive and screen people at the point of entry, he said.

Mr. Guterres refuted any connection between the arrival of refugees and the coming of terrorism to Europe. “Those fleeing the Syrian and Iraqi conflicts, or the Afghan conflict, are overwhelmingly victims of terror, so to say that this flow of refugees is responsible for terrorist acts is absurd, ” he said.

“For Daesh, it is very important to stimulate in Europe anti-Muslim sentiments, because anti-Muslim European societies are the best instrument they have for their propaganda and recruitment,” he said. “So, I think that a simplistic approach in trying to link refugees and terrorism need to be clearly denounced, because the security problems Europe faces at the moment are more complex and need a much more effective and comprehensive response.”

Summarizing his wide-ranging recommendations, the High Commissioner said it would be essential to redesign development cooperation around crisis prevention, and to invest in the improvement of refugee living conditions so that they “are more in line with the normal aspirations of anyone, anywhere—and that is the right to work, the right to property, for children at school, access to health systems.”

He suggested that the May 2016 World Humanitarian Summit in Istanbul would offer a prime opportunity to bring the development and humanitarian communities closer. “If we could establish in the World Humanitarian Summit a new plan of action to bring together the development actors, and the development money, to humanitarian actors, I think the World Humanitarian Summit would do a fantastic thing,” he said. “Another important aspect will be to make the humanitarian system universal. The system is still very much Western conceived, to bring other actors into the system and give it a clear universal approach, that will increase its capacity to respond.”

The event was held as part of IPI’s “Global Leaders Series,” and was co-hosted with the Permanent Mission of Sweden to the UN.

Walter Kemp, IPI Vice President, moderated the conversation.

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