Diplomacy & Crisis News

A new stage in the development of a final agreement on climate change to limit global temperature rise to below two degrees Celsius or less has been reached today, according to the United Nations Assistant Secretary-General on Climate Change.

Warning of dire effects of climate change, abject poverty, fast population growth and a tormenting rise in violence and insecurity in Africa’s Sahel region, United Nations agencies and partners today launched the Sahel humanitarian appeal for 2016, which includes a regional plan that calls for $1.98 billion to provide vital assistance to millions of people in nine countries across the region.

Recent reports of a shooting, and the killing or wounding of its leader, reveals serious divisions within the Taliban.

(Own report) - With its military intervention in Syria and Iraq, Germany is emerging as a "policy-shaping power in the Middle East," according to a government advisor of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). The intervention in Syria, decided last week, could, therefore, last ten years and could be accompanied by "long-term" efforts to "politically reorganize" the entire region, with the cornerstone being military units, equipped and trained by the German government, serving as ground troops for the war against the "Islamic State" (IS/Daesh). In Iraq, the militia of the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq could take on this role, whereas Berlin only provides minimal support to the Iraqi government's armed forces. Whereas the government in Baghdad has good relations with Iran and Russia, the Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq is seen as loyal to the West. Having illegally remained in office beyond the August deadline in an insidious coup, the Regional Government's President Masoud Barzani, with whom German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met yesterday, is responsible for the brutal repression of civil protests. Ultimately - and with Berlin's military aid for his Peshmerga - Barzani may be able to proclaim "Iraqi Kurdistan's" statehood.

Exploring myths and misconceptions regarding Vietnam's approach to China and the United States.

The violent activities of armed groups such as Boko Haram and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) have triggered a dire humanitarian and security crisis in Central Africa, the United Nations envoy on the region said today, telling the Security Council the challenges faced by the affected countries should not be underestimated and ongoing vigilance and international support is needed.

The World Health Organization (WHO) today issued a comprehensive analysis of global health trends since 2000, and laid out actions that should be prioritized over the next 15 years to achieve the newly-agreed United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), saying that universal health care is the “linchpin of development in health.”

Japan and China both need women in the workforce to boost their economies, but they are moving in opposite directions.

Always in sight, but always just beyond reach: will Kashagan ever live up to expectations?

Chief of India’s Eastern Fleet said the naval exercises epitomize the strategic relationship between the two countries.

Hundreds of thousands of people affected in catastrophic collapse of a mining dam in southeastern Brazil still lack full access to safe drinking water and sanitation more than one month after the disaster, a United Nations expert warned today, calling on the Government to urgently tackle the crisis and ensure people’s basic rights.

Voicing grave concern at terrorist safe havens in Libya and the humanitarian crisis caused by Boko Haram terrorists in Nigeria, the United Nations Security Council today appealed for greater international security cooperation and more humanitarian aid to bring stability to sub-Saharan Africa.

United Nations agencies and their aid partners today expressed their “deepest concern” over critical and growing shortages of lifesaving medicines and supplies across Nepal and appealed to all sides to ease an effective blockade of the country’s southern border due to unrest over a new constitution.

In announcing its displeasure with the deal, China is careful to lay the blame on Washington, not Singapore.

L’année en cours aura été une année électorale chargée en Afrique de l’Ouest. Après le Togo et le Nigeria, la Guinée et la Côte d’Ivoire ont organisé des élections présidentielles en octobre dernier. Le « coup KO » annoncé dans les slogans de campagne a eu lieu, et les présidents sortants ont été largement réélus dès le premier tour : Alassane Ouattara en Côte d’Ivoire avec 83,6 pour cent des voix, et Alpha Condé en Guinée avec 57,8 pour cent.

Le « deux poids, deux mesures » observé en matière de discours stigmatisants repose souvent sur une approche ethnoculturelle. Mais il se prête à une tout autre lecture, essentiellement sociale. / France, Histoire, Immigrés, Inégalités, Sécurité, Islam, Jeunes, Judaïsme, Médias, Migrations, Minorité (...) / France, Histoire, Immigrés, Inégalités, Sécurité, Islam, Jeunes, Judaïsme, Médias, Migrations, Minorité nationale, Droits des minorités, Mouvement de contestation, Police, Presse, Racisme, Religion, Société, Répression - 2015/02

/ Géopolitique, Islam, Terrorisme, Violence, Fondamentalisme - Relations internationales / Géopolitique, Islam, Terrorisme, Violence, Fondamentalisme - Relations internationales

Suite au sondage réalisé sur ce blog, nous avons le plaisir de vous offrir l’article du numéro d’hiver 2015 de Politique étrangère que vous avez choisi : « Prévention de la radicalisation et déradicalisation : les modèles allemand, britannique et danois », par Asiem El Difraoui et Milena Uhlmann.

« Les termes « radicalisation », « prévention », « désengagement » et « déradicalisation » se sont largement répandus depuis les attentats du 11 Septembre, notamment aux États-Unis, au Royaume-Uni, en Allemagne et dans les pays du Nord de l’Europe. Ces concepts sont liés et connaissent un regain d’intérêt en France depuis les attentats de janvier 2015.[1]

La radicalisation est définie comme le processus qui conduit un individu à rompre avec la société dans laquelle il vit pour se tourner vers une idéologie violente, en l’occurrence le djihadisme. La prévention regroupe un ensemble de mesures, concernant des domaines sociétaux variés, visant à empêcher la radicalisation. La déradicalisation vise à « défaire » le processus de radicalisation et à encourager la réintégration des individus concernés dans la société. Dans d’autres contextes, on emploie également le terme de « réhabilitation ». L’ensemble des mesures de prévention et de déradicalisation est souvent désigné par le terme de « contre-radicalisation ».

Si le présent article fait occasionnellement référence au concept de prévention, son objet principal réside dans l’analyse de différents programmes de déradicalisation mis en œuvre dans trois pays européens précurseurs : l’Allemagne, la Grande-Bretagne et le Danemark. L’objectif principal est d’identifier les initiatives les plus prometteuses, mais aussi les problèmes récurrents, pour en tirer quelques leçons pour la France.

[…]

Hayat : déradicalisation et médiation

Hayat est l’un des premiers programmes de déradicalisation au sein de la société civile, lancé par le Centre de la culture démocratique (ZDK) de Berlin, qui disposait d’une expertise en matière de déradicalisation dans les milieux d’extrême droite (« Exit-Deutschland »). Hayat – « vie » en arabe et en turc –, qui compte dans ses rangs un ancien officier de police et des spécialistes de l’islamisme radical, est un programme de conseil et de suivi pour les jeunes radicalisés et leur famille. Depuis janvier 2012, le ministère fédéral de l’Intérieur s’est associé à cette initiative. Une nouvelle structure a été créée dans ce ministère pour coordonner les efforts de contre-radicalisation, structure supervisée non plus par les services de renseignement mais par l’Office fédéral pour les migrations et les réfugiés. Portant sur des aspects « émotionnels », « idéologiques » et « pragmatiques » de la radicalisation, les activités de Hayat sont tournées vers des individus soit en voie de radicalisation, soit déjà radicalisés mais sans avoir quitté le sol allemand, soit de retour des différents théâtres de djihad, ou encore se trouvant toujours sur une terre de djihad mais souhaitant rentrer. Sur le plan émotionnel, l’équipe intervient auprès des familles avec lesquelles les radicalisés, ou ceux en train de l’être, entretiennent encore des liens de confiance. La composante idéologique inclut la déconstruction des notions, interprétations et récits fondateurs des extrémistes, et nécessite une connaissance approfondie des concepts islamiques et islamistes. Le programme comporte également une composante dite pragmatique, englobant les démarches administratives ou de réinsertion professionnelle susceptibles de modifier l’environnement de l’individu. L’équipe de Hayat peut également offrir aux jeunes une assistance psychologique, ou les rediriger vers un groupe religieux non radical.

[1]. Les auteurs souhaitent apporter leurs remerciements à Hugo Micheron pour son aide précieuse dans la relecture de l’étude à l’origine de cet article.

Lire prochainement la suite sur Cairn.info.

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As the developing world continues to get richer, global inequality will continue to fall. But there is more to the story than this: economic globalization has also increased inequality within individual countries, partially offsetting the effects of the convergence of the rest with the West.

Via New Middle East Blogspot

In quick succession, the set of ISIS attacks in Paris, Sharm el-Sheikh and Beirut suggest that the group has crossed a threshold for international terrorism. In the case of the Paris attacks, these were “spectacular acts,” planned well in advance, with terrorists waiting for the opportune time to strike.

Less obvious is why now. Kenneth Waltz’s neo-realist “three level analysis” and Robert Jervis’ notion of “perception and misperception” may provide a broader picture of connected issues (Waltz, Kenneth N. 1959, Man, the State and War, New York: Columbia University Press; Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics Princeton, N.J.; Princeton University Press). First, at Waltz’s “third image” or systems level, there appears to be realignment of terrorist group interests and possibly terrorist groups across several North African countries. After years of estrangement from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) leaders, particularly Abdelmalek Droukdel and Mohktar Belmokhtar’s “al-Mourabitoun” carried out the Radisson Blu terrorist assault in Bamako in conjunction with AQIM’s “Sultan Emirate” led by Yaha Abou-Hammam.

This is new. Consistent with North African terrorist group “fence mending” as al-Qaeda and ISIS compete, it bodes ill for security in northern Africa as groups now might achieve “economies of scale” in operations. This environment, where terrorist groups dictate events, echoes U.S. problems with foreign policy in the early 1950s, when the Soviets chose when and where to marshal American military resources in proxy wars. That realignment also puts the spotlight on Ansar Dine and its leader, Iyad Ag Ghali in Mali, because Ansar Dine’s actions (or inaction) influence French foreign policy both in Mali and Algeria.

Another “third image” factor that involves three or more states is Putin’s Syrian strategy. With Putin’s “first mover advantage,” ISIS and the West must probably accept Assad’s continued role in Syria for at least the next few months. The “perception or misperception” is probably that a weaker transitional authority after Assad is vulnerable to an ISIS onslaught. Thus, the Paris attacks might be an act of Thomas Schelling’s  “compellence” to force Assad from power even though as Schelling states, “compellence” is harder to accomplish than deterrence (Schelling, Thomas 1963. The Strategy of Conflict, New York: Oxford University Press). Still, 139 dead in the heart of Paris is very compelling.

At the “second image” level, focus is on Turkey, Iran, and France. Both are what Brian Jenkins and Martha Crenshaw would call “secondary audiences” to the Paris assaults. President Erdogan, fresh from his recent electoral victory, has new political capital to either increase his support for his Turkmen allies, reinforce his stance against the Kurdish YPG (People’s Protection Units) in Syria, or shift the burden of ISIS to other NATO members to work with Russia, if he believes, at least in the short-run, that it is inopportune to confront ISIS now. The Russian SU-24 shot down over Hatay province dovetails with that notion. Be that as it may, it is wise for Erdogan to support Russia’s backing of Assad at least tacitly, since Russia and Turkey are significant trade partners.

Another “second image” level is Iranian foreign policy. It seems possible ISIS leaders have “perceived or misperceived” the recent rapprochement between the U.S. and Iran as a gateway for future Iranian-American cooperation against ISIS in Yemen and Syria, and that the time is now for Iran’s President Rouhani to receive a strong message about the consequences of such a partnership. In addition, French policy toward North Africa is deeply flawed—at the domestic level, acculturation and political and economic assistance remain poorly developed. Internationally, French leaders cope with perception they do little or nothing to integrate former colonies into the French economy and the European Union (EU).

At the “first image” or individual level,  explanatory factors and their effects remain harder to decipher outside of broader strains between Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Ayman al-Zawahiri. The attack in Paris showcased ISIS’s own French nationals of North African background. That terrorist assault characteristic is consistent with recent terrorist group realignment of the type described against the backdrop of this worldwide competition against al-Qaeda. Much about the Paris attacks timing remains largely unknown, but all or some of those factor effects probably coalesced to produce the critical mass necessary to launch the Paris assaults.