Diplomacy & Crisis News

The country’s first non-Castro president in over 50 years has only one path to legitimacy.

Les connaissances s'« exploitent », se « transforment », se « traitent ». L'accès au savoir se vend, comme n'importe quel autre produit industriel. Les impératifs de rentabilité et la concurrence annoncent une guerre commerciale où risquent de s'engloutir les notions de service public et de souveraineté (...) / Information, Informatique, Technologies de l'information - 1979/11

In December 2016, the Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) Constitutional Court ruled in the “Ljubic” decision that elements of the country’s electoral legislation undermines the rights of the country’s Constituent People’s – the Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats – to elect their own representatives, as enshrined in the Dayton Accords.  What makes this decision so important? The court ordered BiH’s parliament to amend the election law, but Parliament has so far failed to act, causing the court to completely strike down the election code.  If legislators do not enact a new law by May, a full government will not be able to be formed following the October election.

The implications of such a scenario are hard to exaggerate. BiH would be in complete paralysis and could rapidly disintegrate without functioning institutions.  Of particular concern – Republika Srpska (RS) where Russia has dominant influence — would be the only BiH entity left with a fully functioning government, giving it every opportunity for its leaders to pursue their long-held goal of breaking away from the rest of the country.

This would have dramatic consequences for the future of BiH and the stability of the entire region. This all would serve’s Russia’s strategic goals to stop European integration.  Even worse, this crisis is being caused by the West’s inaction; Russia barely has to lift a finger to create chaos in this scenario.

Russia’s interference in the Balkans has increased considerably in the past several years.  Recent reports, including one released by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, highlights its attempts and successes to disrupt the respective ambitions of Balkan nations toward further EU and NATO integration by using military force, cyber warfare, and disinformation campaigns.  Russia has also demonstrated its intent to overtly interfere in the political process within Southeast Europe.

As a prime example Russian intelligence was caught attempting a coup in Montenegro in October 2016, where mercenaries had planned to assassinate Milo Djukanovic, the pro-Western leader of Montenegro to prevent it from joining NATO.  Further frustrating Balkan EU/NATO integration, Russia transferred six MiG-29 fighter jets to Serbia in 2017, which suggests a newly ramped up military cooperation with Russia. In response, the Engel-Aderholt amendment to the 2017 NDAA directed the Defense and State Departments to submit a report that would analyze the “defense and security relationship between Serbia and the Russian Federation.”

Republika Srpska is one of the main playing fields for Russia’s Balkan disruption campaign.  Russia has consistently curried favor with the RS by pushing significant political, economic and military investment to prevent BiH’s NATO bid and the EU accession process.  For example, in 2017 President Putin pledged support for the Bosnian Serb’s unilateral referendum pushed by Milorad Dodik to hold a National Day for the RS entity, despite a ruling from the Constitutional Court of BiH that it violated the rights of non-Serbs living in BiH. Taking all of this to account, in January 2017 the U.S. Department of Treasury designated Milorad Dodik as a significant threat to the Dayton Accords (DPA) and imposed sanctions against him.

More recently, Dodik and Russia have taken active measures to deepen RS military ties to Russia and to undermine BiH’s prospects of joining NATO.  This includes increased Russian training RS police; Dodik refusing to recognize a BiH Constitutional Court ruling that military property in RS is owned by the Country and not RS; and Russia shipping vast amounts of military supplies to RS and already 2500 automatic rifles this year.  The RS National Assembly also held a vote in October 2017 declaring RS’s neutrality, setting up a significant roadblock to NATO membership.

However, Dodik and Russia are not the only ones to blame for this situation. The failure of Bosnian political leaders to find compromise and for Western diplomats to exert their influence on these leaders is creating a situation ripe for Russia to exploit.  The failure to reform the election law is the most acute example of this growing instability.

Recently, Croatian political parties, independent think tanks, and the Central Election Commission have all offered solutions to fix the electoral code. However, Bosniak political leaders have rejected all of these proposals without offering any compromise ideas of their own. This scenario of inaction by the FBiH Parliament caused by the unwillingness of Bosniak politicians to implement the Constitutional Court ruling will see the BiH political system collapse from within, leaving a vacuum for further Russian influence.

America has a critical national security interest in a stable and prosperous BiH. Its important for Americans to realize how important Croatians are to the overall multi-ethnic fabric of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and one could argue the glue that can keep this country together. Bosnian Croats of all stripes look West for their future and are profoundly pro-NATO and pro-European.

American and European top diplomats must act urgently to pressure political leaders in BiH to quickly produce new legislation that guarantees the rights of Constituent People to elect their own representatives in the House of Peoples and in the Presidency of BiH. However, Russia would like nothing more than for Bosnia and Herzegovina to suffer a constitutional crisis and fall into further chaos.

The failure for the United States and European Union to take more assertive action, will be devastating for Bosnia and Herzegovina, would allow Russia’s objectives in the Balkans to be further fulfilled, and would seriously weaken the United States and the European Union interests in this region.

Steve Rukavina is President of the National Federation of Croatian Americans Cultural Foundation.

The post Bosnia and Herzegovina is on the brink of a constitutional and political crisis. Simply put: If it happens, Russia wins and the United States and Europe lose. appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

A former senior Russian intelligence official has created an American tech firm that pays people to go places and film things.

Evidence of chemical weapons used to require a chain of custody. Now, open-source intelligence is often enough.

L'informatique et le développement des télécommunications démultiplient les possibilités d'accès à de vastes « réservoirs de pensée ». Mais la technologie en quête d'applications ne va-t-elle pas dicter de nouveau enjeu dans les rapports entre Etats, un nouveau modèle de société dont les contours sont (...) / Information, Informatique, Technologies de l'information, Télécommunications, Stratégie militaire - 1979/11

Online protest has scored a solid win for LGBT rights — for now.

Beijing is using commercial bridgeheads to give its warships staying power in the Indian Ocean.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro de printemps de Politique étrangère (n°1/2018). Vincent Doix propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Bayram Balci, Renouveau de l’islam en Asie centrale et dans le Caucase (CNRS Éditions, 2017, 320 pages).

Bayram Balci, ancien directeur de l’Institut français d’études sur l’Asie centrale à Tachkent, signe une étude fort utile sur un espace centrasiatique qui interroge, dans le contexte de mondialisation de l’islam, de l’éclosion de formes radicales, et de recomposition du djihad mondial.

Le premier axe de lecture s’appuie sur l’histoire soviétique de la région, et le rapport complexe qu’entretint l’Union soviétique à l’islam. Loin d’un athéisme inflexible, le pouvoir flattait les populations musulmanes pour gagner leur soutien, faisant de l’islam un moyen de construction des identités nationales.

Bayram Balci fait intelligemment le lien entre cette histoire et la situation contemporaine. Si l’ouverture des frontières a permis un nouvel essor de la religion, les États d’Asie centrale et du Caucase en ont rapidement restreint les expressions plurielles, potentiellement néfastes pour les pouvoirs politiques. Marqués par l’histoire séculière soviétique, ils ont maintenu le contrôle de la religion, se dotant de structures définissant un islam national, un « bon » islam auquel s’identifier (en Asie centrale, il s’agit d’un islam fidèle aux enseignements du sunnisme traditionnel hannafite).

L’islam sert ainsi à légitimer l’État – l’Azerbaïdjanais Heydar Aliyev s’y réfère pour effacer son passé de responsable au KGB –, mais sans que lui soit conféré nul pouvoir politique. Les pratiques populaires, apolitiques, comme les pèlerinages, sont encouragées. Voici la thèse centrale du livre : chaque pays, dans sa volonté de différenciation et de construction d’une identité, a favorisé l’émergence d’un islam national, fruit de l’histoire et des contextes nationaux.

Autre apport important de l’ouvrage, les diverses formes de religiosité présentes sont référencées et contextualisées. Ainsi de la Jama’at al Tabligh, venue d’Asie du Sud, peu influente et seulement présente au Kirghizstan. Ainsi également des réseaux de la confrérie Nakhsibendiyya du « parti de la libération » (Hizb ul Tahrir), surveillé et combattu. Au total, il ressort que le rôle politique de l’islam comme contre-pouvoir reste très limité.

Les États étudiés se différencient aussi dans leur rapport aux influences extérieures, nées de l’ouverture et de la nécessaire coopération avec les producteurs d’islam. L’auteur déconstruit l’idée d’une prééminence d’États se présentant comme les défenseurs de l’islam au niveau mondial. L’Iran joue ainsi un rôle mineur sur cet espace avec lequel il partage pourtant une histoire, trop occupé à des considérations géopolitiques dans sa relation avec Bakou par exemple. Le rôle de l’Arabie Saoudite est aussi minoré, quoique les fondations Al-Haramain et la International Islamic Relief Organisation et ses lieux saints constituent un réel soft power pour le pouvoir saoudien. En revanche, la Turquie laïque apparaît la plus influente dans cet espace. Si elle est repoussée dans son rôle de « nouveau grand frère », le détail que donne l’auteur des outils turcs est impressionnant, qu’il s’agisse de la Diyanet ou encore des écoles du mouvement Gülen.

Bayram Balci livre ici un texte utile à la compréhension de l’histoire religieuse de cet espace et des forces centrifuges qui pourraient le déstabiliser ; et une étude fouillée, singulière en langue française, pour tous ceux qui s’intéressent au regain de l’islam en Asie centrale et dans le Caucase.

Vincent Doix

Pour vous abonner à Politique étrangère, cliquez ici.

There's only one way to accomplish all of America's goals in Syria: cooperating with Russia.

The Trump administration's latest missile strikes in Syria were never going to accomplish anything. But the show must go on.

South American conservatives have an unlikely new role model.

Airstrikes against Syria may galvanize support against the United States.

But he needs a more coherent strategy in the Middle East.

 

As we speak, the political situation in Bangladesh is deteriorating for the Hindu community. Millions of acres of Hindu land has been confiscated and redefined as enemy property. According to Shipan Kumer Basu, the President of the World Hindu Struggle Committee, “Local land grabber Manik Miah has occupied the properties of Ballabh Das in Majigacha village of Kachua Upazila in Chandpur district.”

He claimed that 300 Muslims accompanied by musical instruments came in order to destroy the Ballabh Das family home: “They looted many goods such as cash, gold ornaments, silver ornaments, bronze, etc. Now, the family has no place to pass the night. They lost everything except the clothes on their backs. The family asked, why do we suffer such cruel attacks against us? We are Hindus. That is our only crime. Why can’t we also live in an independent Bangladesh while Muslims are permitted to peacefully coexist with Hindus in India?”

According to Bangladesh Sishu Adhikar Forum (BSAF), between January and March of this year, over 55 Bangladeshi children were raped per month with 66 being raped in March alone. He claimed that of the 176 children that were raped over these past 3 months, 15 were between age 1 to 6 years of age and 37 were between 7 to 12 years of age. Although these statistics are low by American standards, Basu stated that these statistics on child rape exceed what existed in the past in the country, emphasizing that the rise of radical Islam in the Middle East has had an adverse effect on the situation in his country. He noted that the rate of Hindu girls who are raped is much higher than the official statistics for the general population and that the rape of Hindu women is generally not recorded in the official records.

“Rape is a heinous violent crime,” the Bangladesh Minority Council noted. “It is used as a war tool through which the invaders subjugate and humiliate the conquered population. A judicial commission concluded that over 200 Hindu women were raped following the 2001 parliamentary election. Rape and other sexual violations of minor girls belonging to the Hindu community, mainly in rural areas, remain rampant. In the conservative society of rural Bangladesh, when a girl is violated in a village, the family is left with no choice but to migrate to India. In addition, in rural areas, pressure to convert to Islam is increasing with every year. In many cases, local authorities ignore such activities because they themselves believe that if they can convert a non-Muslim to Islam, then they will be rewarded after death. This belief has caused an upsurge in the religious conversion of Hindu minors and sometimes even of entire families to Islam.”

Within Bangladesh, many Muslims hold negative beliefs about the Hindu population. According to Basu, many Muslims in Bangladesh claim that the Hindus are not patriotic, alleging that they have never died for the country nor fought a war of liberation. However, he emphasized that such statements are bigoted and simply not true: “Jagatiyoti Das was the first to be called Birshrestha (Best Hero/Fighter) of Bangladesh’s War of Liberation. At the time, Jagatiyoti’s group had 42 people. The group had some freedom fighters operating in Kalyanpur. They fired at the Pakistani Army in Shalla, Ghangia in order to help the freedom fighters in Subal Das’s team.” He claimed that by claiming that the Hindus are not patriotic and merely fled to India, the authorities are encouraging bigoted beliefs against the Hindus in Bangladesh, which can be used to encourage their silent ethnic cleansing from the country as the world turns a blind eye to it.

“The Awami League wants to destroy the Hindu culture in Bangladesh,” he emphasized. “It is very sad that Bangladesh and West Bengal celebrate the Bengali New Year on different dates. But why? The answer is that Sheikh Hasina wants to cleanse Bangladesh of Hindu culture. Her supporters are destroying temples, idols and other symbols of Hindu culture within the country. She has formed a covert alliance with ISIS in order to rid the country of the Hindu minority by slowly ethnically cleansing them from the country via murders, rapes, and looting and land seizures. However, while Sheikh Hasina is forming an alliance with radical Islamists, we Hindus protest against this and seek to establish a secular country who peacefully coexists with other religious groups, such as Muslims, Buddhists, Christians and Jews. We want to be a model for the world. Therefore, this year, we hope that you will speak out about the plight of the Hindus in Bangladesh.”

The post Bangladeshi Hindu Human Rights Activist: “Muslims celebrate destruction of Hindu home” appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Vol au-dessus d'un nid de coucou est un film politique. Là est sans doute son plus grand mérite : Milos Forman a réussi ce tour de force de nous présenter, deux heures durant, la vie d'un hôpital, de telle sorte que tout ce qui est thérapeutique y apparaît dans sa juste dimension : thérapeutique de (...) / Cinéma, Santé, Science, Psychanalyse - 1976/04

The United States is pursuing a worst-of-both-worlds mix of hawkish confrontation and strategic retrenchment.

Dès 1890 les gisements cuprifères du Katanga, aujourd'hui connus dans le monde entier, suscitèrent un extraordinaire enthousiasme, notamment en Afrique du Sud. Les grandes sociétés surent immédiatement prendre les mesures nécessaires pour organiser une exploitation rationnelle. Le cuivre du Katanga (...) / Burundi, Rwanda - 1959/07

The United States has no intention of using its firepower to halt the mass killing of civilians through conventional means, degrade Syria’s military forces, or to challenge Russia and Iran’s military positions is Syria.