Diplomacy & Crisis News

The scandal may rattle India’s elite just enough to jump-start long-neglected reforms.

En plantant un drapeau à la verticale du pôle Nord, le 2 août 2007, une expédition russe a relancé la sourde lutte qui se joue dans l'Arctique. / Canada, États-Unis, Russie, Pétrole, Norvège, Danemark, Arctique, Groenland - 2007/09 / Canada, États-Unis, Russie, Pétrole, Norvège, Danemark, Arctique, Groenland - 2007/09

The Netherlands' prime minister argues that Russia’s war is a great-power conflict—with the world’s small states near its center.

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was greeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

Why the United States must find new ways to protect its airspace.

What the war in Ukraine has revealed about economic sanctions.

What the war in Ukraine has revealed about Putin’s public.

Beijing has reinforced its anti-U.S. messaging this week, but lethal aid for Moscow still seems to be a red line.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime that currently rules China maintains that Taiwan is inseparably and permanently a part of China. The White Paper published by the Chinese government in August 2022 holds that “Taiwan has belonged to China since ancient times” and “Taiwan’s status as part of China’s territory has never changed.”

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) official line is that Taiwan’s natural status is to be ruled from Beijing, that the majority of the people on Taiwan concur, and that the only opposition comes from “outside forces and the few separatists.”

This outlook, however, ignores Taiwan’s actual history. Taiwan has mostly been outside of the control of governments based on the Chinese Mainland, and the periods of mainlander rule over Taiwan have been highly contentious.

Up to the seventeenth century, Taiwan had been home not only to Chinese settlers, but also to a non-Chinese aboriginal population, a Spanish colony, and a Dutch-run government. Chinese emperors saw Taiwan as an irritant, a haven for pirates and dissenters. The Manchu-led Qing government’s decision to annex Taiwan in 1684 largely reflected a fear that an ungoverned Taiwan would continue to serve as a base for enemies. Taiwan first became a prefecture of Fujian Province, then a province in 1887. 

This first period of Chinese central government rule over Taiwan saw frequent unrest among Chinese migrants who were unhappy with the government’s land-use policies. Mainland rule ended with Taiwanese learning that their central government had sold them out, ceding Taiwan as a prize to Japan in 1895 as part of the settlement of the First Sino-Japanese War. Abandoned by the mainland, the Taiwanese declared a Republic of Formosa and fought a brief but losing war against arriving Japanese soldiers.

Japan’s defeat in the Pacific War led to Taiwan returning to rule from the mainland, in this case, the Republic of China (ROC) under Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang (KMT) government. Under Japanese rule, Taiwan had become more economically and politically advanced than Mainland China. The new KMT government, however, subjected Taiwan to systematic looting and treated the Taiwanese as Japanese collaborators who had been indoctrinated in anti-China sentiment. Taiwanese anger built up, eventually exploding in the February 28, 1947, uprising. In retaliation, the ROC central government dispatched troops from the mainland who sought out anyone they thought might be a threat to the regime. They massacred tens of thousands of Taiwanese. 

The KMT’s defeat by CCP forces in the Chinese Civil War led Chiang and his remaining followers to relocate to Taiwan in 1949. Taiwan endured a repressive one-party dictatorship until Chiang’s son began to relax civil liberties starting in 1987. A legacy of that era is the deep divide between the longer-established Taiwanese and more recently-arrived mainlander communities in today’s Taiwan politics.

Taiwan received an artificial bump in affinity for China because of the postwar influx of about two million mainland-born Chinese. That effect, however, is fading, despite many Taiwanese nationals spending years living and working in some of Mainland China’s more appealing cities. 

Public opinion surveys on Taiwan conducted by National Chengchi University and the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation found that in 1992, less than 20 percent of Taiwan’s population described themselves as “Taiwanese.” Between 20 and 25 percent considered themselves “Chinese,” and a solid majority saw themselves as “both Chinese and Taiwanese.” Only 15 percent hoped for Taiwan's independence, 30 percent wanted unification with China, and 35 percent preferred the status quo. Those numbers changed dramatically over the next generation, indicating a psychological break from China. In 2022, a solid majority (61 percent in one poll, 80 percent in the other) considered themselves “Taiwanese,” and only a tiny minority identified as “Chinese.” Support for unification with China dropped to 11 percent, while preference for formal independence rose to 53 percent.

Now another Mainland Chinese government causes problems for Taiwan. The CCP regime claims sovereignty over Taiwan even though, unlike the Qing government or the ROC, it has never ruled Taiwan. Beijing has decreed that non-statehood for Taiwan—despite Taiwan easily fulfilling the usual criteria of an independent country—and eventual submission by Taiwan’s people to governance by the PRC are non-negotiable. The PRC has maintained heightened and continuous military pressure on Taiwan since 2016, when President Tsai Ing-wen refused to declare Taiwan part of China. Beijing harasses governments, international organizations, and private corporations that “hurt the feelings of the Chinese people” by even minuscule gestures that implicitly violate the legal fiction that Taiwan is not a country. In some cases, such as keeping Taiwan out of the World Health Assembly or the International Civil Aviation Organization, Beijing’s obsession could cause people to get hurt.

Even after the horror show of the PRC government’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil liberties, PRC paramount leader Xi Jinping has continued to insist that “one country, two systems” is the model for annexing Taiwan into the PRC. Xi has reportedly ordered party ideologist and Politburo Standing Committee member Wang Huning to formulate a new phrase that Xi can claim as original. Given the CCP’s sclerotic commitment to its idiosyncratically distorted conception of the Taiwan-China relationship, anything behind a superficial adjustment of wording is extremely unlikely.

The CCP’s amnesic narrative about Taiwan’s history traps it in a circular argument. The government cannot abide Taiwanese independence because this would cause a loss of domestic legitimacy. PRC citizens would consider the “loss” of Taiwan a profound failure by the leadership. But PRC citizens feel this way because the CCP leadership has taught China’s people for decades that the party must and will annex Taiwan. Xi has even said China cannot achieve “rejuvenation” without unifying with Taiwan. 

The way the CCP currently frames the Taiwan issue is an unfortunate choice, not an inevitability. In the 1930s, for example, Mao Zedong said Taiwan should be independent.

Taiwan’s current conflict with Beijing is typical of the historical relationship, not an anomaly as claimed by PRC propaganda. In any case, Beijing’s argument that the past is determinative is unpersuasive, even setting aside the issue of Beijing describing a fake past. This is the twenty-first century, not the nineteenth. The wishes of the people who inhabit a de facto state should matter more than another state’s indirect claim to ownership of the land.

Denny Roy is a Senior Fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.

Image: Shutterstock.

Turkey will require billions of dollars in foreign aid to clear debris and rebuild from the recent earthquake. Though more than 40,000 victims need a generous helping hand, assistance should be monitored to make sure funds are spent as intended. Channeling assistance through international NGOs would enhance the integrity of foreign aid. Donors must make sure their largess is not stolen by the incompetent, callous, and corrupt government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Despite that stringent construction standards were adopted after the last earthquake in 1999, Erdogan established sweeping exceptions out of fear that these standards would discourage construction and limit the country’s economic development. According to Turkish agencies, a plethora of contractors with ties to the government received amnesty. The flattened landscape in Antakya, the earthquake’s epicenter, is the consequence of Erdogan’s ill-advised amnesty policy. Corrupt business practices are widespread in Turkey. Erdogan’s government awarded government-funded infrastructure projects to cronies who cut corners on safety and environmental standards, which contributed to the high death toll in Antakya. Though the government collected large sums through an earthquake tax designed to build stronger buildings, the money was pocketed by corrupt officials. It is common practice in Turkey for businesses to pay bribes to the government in exchange for lucrative contracts.

Turkey is currently investigating about 400 contractors and has arrested 120. This roundup is a thinly-disguised effort to deflect blame by scapegoating construction companies. The investigation focuses on “small fish” instead of large construction companies with ties to the government. One of the worst offenders, for example, is Cengiz Holdings, a large construction company run by a Turkish oligarch and close friend of Erdogan. Cengiz Holdings received $42.1 billion in government contracts since Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. It also contributed $160 million to the AKP.

The disastrous consequences of the Antakya earthquake were compounded by the government’s lack of preparedness. Rescue workers were slow to reach the scene. When they arrived, they lacked suitable equipment to identify and extract victims. Though Antakya is located in a known earthquake zone, the government failed to preposition tents, blankets, food, and water. The Turkish government has also been playing politics with earthquake relief. Soon after the disaster, countries rushed to send rescue teams. However, only “friendly” governments were allowed to assist. Cyprus offered rescue teams to Antakya, but the government refused its offer. Antakya is in Hatay province, home to many refugees from Syria and a large Kurdish population. Syrians and Kurds were bumped to the end of the queue when it came to emergency assistance. The government is loath to assist so-called oppositionists allegedly sympathetic to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) against whom Turkey has waged a counterinsurgency campaign since the 1990s, which resulted in at least 40,000 deaths. The PKK announced a unilateral ceasefire within hours of the first tremor. It was not the first time the PKK laid down its arms in service of social harmony.

Erdogan boasts about Turkey’s strong state. It may be adept at waging war, but sorely lacks the capacity to address a civil emergency. Noble Turks in Turkish civil society immediately mobilized and donated supplies to the victims. Medical personnel flocked to Antakya, setting up clinics to assist earthquake victims. Though there was little coordination with the authorities, that did not dissuade their efforts. I’m in touch with doctors from a hospital in Ankara who went to Antakya to help. Their team of twelve people found a chaotic relief effort with the government all but absent.

Erdogan himself visited the earthquake zone as anger spiked over the government’s inadequate performance. He was accompanied by a gaggle of press to report on his visit. The extensive media presence made his drop-by look like a publicity stunt, rather than a sincere effort to comfort the victims. The optics of his visit compounded the government’s credibility problem. Erdogan was attired in a luxurious cashmere coat that cost thousands of dollars. The image of an elegant Erdogan surrounded by scantily clad victims backfired. He came off as uncaring, more concerned with public relations than the suffering of victims.

The earthquake compounded a widespread perception that Erdogan has broken faith with the Turkish people. The AKP has held a stranglehold on power for more than two decades. During this time, Erdogan consolidated power by establishing an executive presidency, expanding tyrannical rule, and abusing human rights with impunity. Earthquake victims are discovering they have something in common with victims of Erdogan’s human rights abuses. Turks turned a blind eye to the country’s eroding human rights situation in exchange for prosperity. Now Erdogan’s house of cards has been shaken by the Antakya earthquake. Turkey’s economy and currency have collapsed. Its reputation as a strong state is eroded. AKP officials have floated a proposal to delay national elections scheduled for May 2023. They worry—rightfully so—that Turkish voters will punish the AKP at the ballot box. The time of reckoning for Erdogan is drawing near.

David L. Phillips is Director of the Program on Peacebuilding and Human Rights at Columbia University.  He served as a Senior Adviser and Foreign Affairs Expert at the State Department during the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations.

Image: FreelanceJournalist / Shutterstock.com

The devastation wrought by Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico could provide an opportunity to rebuild the island’s energy system in a sustainable way. But failing to take food security into account could leave people with plenty of power but less food.

In 2017, Hurricanes Irma and Maria devastated Puerto Rico’s infrastructure. According to government estimates, it would take $132 billion from 2018 through 2028 to repair and replace the damaged infrastructure. Progress on electric grid reconstruction and upgrading has been slower than anticipated, and the island still suffers from outages and recurring storm threats. Hurricane Fiona, which hit the island in September 2022, was estimated to have caused an additional $4 billion in damages. Simultaneously, Puerto Rico has committed to generating 100 percent of its energy renewably by 2050, as stated in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17).

Given the dire state of the island’s infrastructure, this plan could be an opportunity to leapfrog fossil fuels and rebuild in a sustainable manner. But Puerto Rico’s recovery and transition to 100 percent renewables may need to take food security into account since the energy and food systems are inextricably interdependent. For instance, electricity generation and food production can compete for land use. Likewise, natural gas is a key input to produce fertilizer, and farming equipment requires diesel to run.

Puerto Rico is a small island, heavily reliant on imports. Its agricultural base, which occupies 21 percent of its land area, only produces 15 percent of the food it consumes and but a fraction of its GDP. Furthermore, Puerto Rico’s agricultural industry is also less productive per acre than competing farms in the United States and South America. Already, agricultural land on the island has decreased steadily from 6.000 km2 in 1960 to less than 2.000 km2 in 2020. Today, about one-third of residents experience food insecurity. Puerto Rico also consumes 70 times more energy than it produces, indicating enormous new generation capacity must be brought online by 2050 to comply with Act 17 goals. Therefore, as Puerto Rico proceeds toward 100 percent renewable energy (PR100), it will be tempting and possibly lucrative to reduce domestic agriculture even further, sacrificing agricultural land for solar photovoltaic installations to generate clean, renewable energy required by law.

Preliminary results of an investigation by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) suggest that the island could theoretically meet its energy needs from renewable sources, especially offshore wind, and solar photovoltaics (PVs). But while future grid electrification could increase grid efficiency, electricity consumption is also likely to increase. This would require a further increase in total generation. Offshore wind costs more than five times as much per kilowatt to install as Solar PV and more than double to maintain. At the same time, most of the land best suited for photovoltaics also happens to be the same land best suited for agriculture. The much lower costs and coincidental land favorability of PV installations could put enormous pressure on both government and industry to favor building solar PV there and crowd out agriculture. Innovation may help: some crops may be suitable to farming and photovoltaic co-location. Through clever design and a combination of crop choice, this may partially solve two problems at once. But “agrovoltaics,” as this is known, is a nascent concept, largely unproven.

In the event of natural disasters, tragically frequent in Puerto Rico, imports may be cut off for an unknown duration. Puerto Rico was making progress towards strengthening its agricultural sector until recent hurricanes caused setbacks, with estimates indicating that around 80 percent of agricultural infrastructure lies destroyed. A safe level of domestic food production required to prevent famine could be identified and enforced. Food insecurity alone could result in social instability as has been seen recently in Indonesia and Panama. It would be irresponsible to reduce domestic agricultural output below a safe baseline for incremental, possibly short-term lucrative gains in renewable energy generation.

The tragedy of disaster recovery has unlocked substantial capital for Puerto Rico to rewrite its interdependent security in energy and food. Considering food security in this context could help to ensure the population has access to both power and food.

Ismael Arciniegas Rueda is a senior economist and Andrew Star is an engineer at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. Henri van Soest is an analyst at RAND Europe.

Image: bobby20/Shutterstock.

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The Russian president’s announcement draws shock and scorn from Ukraine’s allies.

The fault lines between the Turkish government and universities have increased the fallout from the country’s earthquakes.

Old enmities resurface as Netanyahu’s efforts for a diplomatic reset in Africa are tested.