Defence`s Feeds

CNA’s Russia Studies Program is pleased to announce a new biweekly newsletter that analyzes Russian perspectives on Western military activities. The newsletter examines how US and NATO actions are perceived and described by Russian officials and experts. I’ll be posting the abstracts from each issue here. Full text of all issues will always be available on the newsletter webpage and through the CNA Russia Studies Program website.

Here are the abstracts and a direct link to the full text of the most recent issue.

1. The crisis in US-Russia relations

Russian media devoted extensive coverage to the crisis in relations between Russia and the West. Discussion of the Russian set of proposals for a new security agreement for Europe, and the subsequent videoconference between presidents Putin and Biden, was a major aspect of the coverage. Russia’s publication of a draft agreement is seen as a show of strength by President Putin, though most authors believe that the United States will reject the proposal. The December 30 conversation is portrayed primarily as a way for the two principals to clearly define their positions prior to the start of bilateral talks in mid January.

2. Perceptions of US and NATO strategy

Several long articles published in late December 2021 describe Russian perceptions of the strategy being pursued by the United States and NATO to contain and weaken Russia. Several articles highlight Russian perceptions that the United States is focused on organizing regime change in Russia and its allies, including through hybrid warfare. Other articles discuss the US shift to Asia as part of a continuing effort to preserve US hegemony in the world.

3. In year-end speeches, Putin and Shoigu articulate concerns about US and NATO threats

In a December 21 speech and in his December 23 annual press conference, Putin expressed frustration at what he describes as the persistent disregard by the US and NATO of Russian concerns about NATO expansion, alleging that the US supported “terrorist organizations” in the North Caucasus against Russia, and argued that the US and NATO are aiming to weaken and collapse Russia. In a December 21 speech, Russian defense minister Sergey Shoigu summed up annual results of modernization and activities in the Russian armed forces, according to Krasnaya Zvezda. Shoigu also extensively discussed Western activities and the political-military and threat environment around Russia.

4. The situation in Ukraine

Coverage on Ukraine remains a key area of focus in Russian media. Several articles address the January 2 Biden-Zelensky call in which President Biden pledged to “respond decisively” should Russia invade, and to keep Ukraine fully involved in the ensuing effort to resolve the crisis. Meanwhile, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concerns about military developments in Ukraine. Several articles also address Defense Minister Shoigu’s recent allegations of nefarious US military actions in the region, including the transfer of chemical weapons and provocations from private military contractors.

5. European reaction to Russia’s position

Several articles highlight European reactions to the growing confrontation with Russia. The dominant perspective is that the EU and its member states want to make sure they are included in high-level discussions and that the US and Russia do not make any decisions without their input. Other articles highlight NATO efforts to heighten military readiness in response to Russia’s arms build-up near Ukraine and note that Russia is acting to counter NATO threats on its border.

6. Russian reactions to Finland’s military role

Several articles address developments in Finland’s force structure. One article calls for a realistic assessment of Finland’s military aspirations, referencing Helsinki’s recent purchase of 64 F-35a fifth- generation fighter-bombers from the US. The author characterizes this deal as an “unfriendly step towards Russia.” Several other articles discuss recent statements from senior Finnish officials that reiterate Finland’s right to apply for NATO membership should it choose to. One expert characterizes these statements as “typical rhetoric” that “should not be taken seriously” while another suggests that Russia should strengthen its Baltic Fleet forces if Finland enters the alliance.

7. Russian views of Australian dependence on the US and growing Chinese power

Many Russian writers focused on issues in the Asia-Pacific theater, especially in light of the AUKUS deal, the changing US-Chinese naval balance, and new developments in the Russian-Chinese relationship. Although the articles were disparate in their subject matter and approaches, most took a pessimistic and doubtful view regarding the United States and its efforts in the region, noting the increasing dependence of Australia on American military and economic support, as well as confirming that the rise of China is a key point of interest for Russian observers.

8. Japanese military developments

At least three articles addressed Japanese military developments during this reporting period. One article notes that Japan’s draft budget has increased next year’s military spending by 6.5 percent, to a total of US $51.5 billion. Another article reports that Japan is also interested in hosting a US military base on the Ryukyu Islands to prepare for a possible escalation of the Taiwan conflict. One author notes that while Japan sees China and North Korea as its primary threats, it is increasingly worried about defense cooperation between China and Russia.

9. Fallout from Afghanistan continues

The fallout from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan remains a source of interest for Russian foreign policy commentators. Vladimir Vinokurov asks “what the US defeat in Afghanistan” means nearly half a year on. In a wide-ranging argument, he concludes that the withdrawal represents a significant blow to the hegemon status of the United States and is likely to usher in fully the multipolar world that has been long suggested by commentators. Similarly, Aleksandr Khramchikhin underlines the alliance-disrupting impact of the Afghanistan withdrawal.

10. Democracy summit ridiculed as desperate attempt to bolster an “operetta democracy”

The recent Summit for Democracies was a subject of interest and ridicule by Russian political analysts. An essay by Grigori Nikonorov and Igor Rodionov expresses this framing of the Summit in full form. The authors describe the United States as an “operetta democracy,” due to a “series of failures in domestic and foreign policy.” The authors frame the event as a means for the United States to “consolidate the shaky position of the United States as the leader of the Western world,” but find it not up to the task given the diffuse troubles of the current world order, the rise of China and Russia to international prominence, and the legitimacy crisis besetting Western democracies in particular.

11. US and NATO weapons and threats to Russia

Numerous Russian articles provide overviews of current and emerging Western weapons technologies, including US and NATO missile defense infrastructure, unmanned aircraft that could potentially accompany the B-21 Raider bomber, and missiles and hypersonic systems.

12. Reaction to restrictions on export of US space technologies

Evgeniy Fedorov discusses a bill introduced in December 2021 by Senator Marco Rubio called the Space Protection of American Command and Enterprise (SPACE) Act. He notes that the bill seeks to reduce risks of industrial espionage to the US space industrial base and restrict the export of space technologies to Russia and China.

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The chief of the General Staff of the Armenian military, General Artak Davtian, former Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan, and several other officials went on trial on January 19 on fraud and embezzlement charges related to purchases of faulty weaponry and ammunition for the armed forces.

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During his first press conference of the year, U.S. President Joe Biden spoke candidly at the White House on Wednesday about the possibility of a Russian invasion in Ukraine.

Independence-variant littoral combat ship USS Jackson (LCS 6) arrived in Brunei Jan. 14 following a one-day exercise at sea with the Royal Brunei Navy (RBN).

The mission of the HDMS Peter Willemoes, with a crew of 160, has been described as monitoring and deterring Russian activity in the Baltic Sea, which a military expert described as "Denmark's own backyard".

French President Emmanuel Macron says EU countries need to build a new "security and stability framework" that would require "strategic rearmament," as well as "frank and demanding" talks with Russia.

Troops of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have completed their withdrawal from Kazakhstan, where they were invited by the Central Asian nation's government in the wake of deadly protests in the country's largest city, Almaty, in early January.

Kazakhstan's leaders have taken further steps to replace government officials and concentrate the powers of President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev by stripping former President Nursultan Nazarbaev of lifetime posts a week after deadly protests swept across the Central Asian country.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has met his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, in Moscow amid international negotiations aimed at reviving a landmark nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

Meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow during his first visit to Russia as Iranian president, Ebrahim Raeisi says there is no hindrance lying in the way of improvement of relations between the Islamic Republic and the Russian Federation.

Subjected to decades of restrictions on the purchase of weaponry from abroad, the Islamic Republic has created a substantive domestic military-industrial complex at home - including advanced ballistic and cruise missile tech and defence electronics. Iran sees its conventional capabilities as a sufficient deterrent to any foreign aggression.

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Addressing the European Parliament's (EP) plenary session in Strasbourg, France, on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron outlined the priorities of his country's Presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU).

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) convened its 6th Meeting of the 8th Central Committee at the office building of the Party Central Committee on January 19 to discuss and decide immediate work and important policy issues of the Party and the state.

The Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly of the DPRK decided to grant an amnesty to those who had been convicted of the crimes against the country and people, on the occasion of the 110th birth anniversary of President Kim Il Sung and the 80th birth anniversary of Chairman Kim Jong Il.

The UN Security Council has no plans to discuss a draft resolution on sanctions against North Korea, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said on Wednesday, calling on members of the Security Council to focus on advancing the political settlement process of the Peninsula issue.