Defence`s Feeds

Worried about the mounting risk of manipulation and interference on the United States' navigation satellite system, the Department of Defense's

On 7 February, two years later than planned, the port of Beirut's temporary management and operating committee, GEPB, which, despite

Alwiyat Al Waad Al Haq - or the "True Promise Brigades" - a little known Iraqi militia group, claimed responsibility

In the midst of the intense ongoing geopolitical negotiations over Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron had details of a highly symbolic memorial

The legal action started by law firm Sparacino PLLC on behalf of a group of Iraq veterans is due to

In March, Britain's Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF) will start sending out questionnaires for its new contractor selection round,

American Colonial History: Cases of Military and Religious Fondness for Gambling

Ministers outlined the priorities of the French Presidency of the Council of the EU to parliamentary committees, in a series of meetings.
Committee on Constitutional Affairs
Committee on Foreign Affairs
Committee on Agriculture and Rural Development
Committee on Culture and Education
Committee on Development
Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs
Committee on Employment and Social Affairs
Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety
Committee on Women’s Rights and Gender Equality
Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection
Committee on International Trade
Committee on Industry, Research and Energy
Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs
Committee on Fisheries
Committee on Regional Development
Committee on Transport and Tourism
Special Committee on Artificial Intelligence in a Digital Age
Subcommittee on Security and Defence

Source : © European Union, 2022 - EP

In a debate on EU-Russia relations, European security and Russia’s military threat against Ukraine, MEPs called for a united response and voiced support for Ukraine.
Committee on Foreign Affairs
Subcommittee on Security and Defence

Source : © European Union, 2022 - EP

On top of a complaint in France (IO, 07/04/21), a probe in Switzerland (IO, 19/05/21) and another in Luxembourg, the former Banque du Liban (BDL) governor Riad Salamé (IO, 15/09/21) is now facing questions about his assets from Germany, which

Just months after arriving in Tel Aviv, the new Bahraini ambassador Khaled Al Jalahma has already made himself familiar with

At the end of January, the British High Court sentenced the former prime minister of Qatar, Hamad bin Jassem bin

The Ukrainian parliament's national security, defence and inteligence committee completed its examination of several amendments to the law On the

Adam Kozy will be among a roster of cyberspecialists addressing a hearing of the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission

The announcement on 7 February that Everest Alliance Limited had withdrawn its complaint against the former management of the gold

At the end of January, the lawyers at the Stokoe Partnership defending Jordanian lawyer Karam al-Sadeq, who is being held prisoner in

Throughout 2021, the European Defence Agency (EDA) held a Technology Foresight Exercise the results of which will help identify and define the main challenges Europe’s armed forces will most probably have to face in the next 20 years and beyond, as well as the defence toolbox needed to tackle them. 

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This article was first published in EDA’s latest European Defence Matters magazine N°22

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In the short term, the exercise outcome will feed into the upcoming revision of the EU’s Capability Development Plan (CDP) to be steered by EDA. It will also serve for future updates of EDA’s Overarching Strategic Research Agenda (OSRA) and the Key Strategic Activities (KSA).

The methodology applied and the activities developed were designed to support the central objective of the foresight exercise: the identification of new technologies, weak signals and innovative trends to support the R&T and capability planning processes and inform future defence policies and programmes of the EU and its Member States. To achieve that, the exercise looked up to 20 years into the future, to provide a strategic vision of the possible impact those new technologies will have on defence in 2040 and beyond. The exercise was based on a methodology which combines different existing methods and processes along with best practices and lessons learned from the wider EDA community of foresight practitioners. 

10 future scenarios identified

The exercise stretched over 2021 with successive activities and meetings that brought together representatives from different international organisations, Ministries of Defence, non-governmental bodies, academia, industry and civil society. With the help a multidisciplinary group of foresight experts, so-called Futures Tellers, multiple possible futures were described in the Futures Narratives meant to widen people’s vision and imagination and to encourage them to think outside the box about what could be possible towards 2040+, and what kind of challenges this would entail. Based on these narratives, the experts then entered a complex thinking and discussion process (Divergent Thinking, Convergent Thinking) from which, at the end, emerged 10 future scenarios, i.e. developments which, according to the experts, are very likely to materialise over the next 20 years in Europe – all of them somehow relevant for defence:

• Software-based battlefields: a scenario where software and algorithms will determine military missions’ success more than platforms, as the result of disruptive developments and the introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI), faster communication networks and system-of-systems defence solutions
• Space as an operational military domain: by 2040, all global powers will have a fully established space force resulting in opportunities but also in threats and challenges. This scenario will call for the establishment of new concept of operations, regulatory frameworks and international agreements
• Extended and augmented reality everywhere, also in defence: the merger of brain-computer interfaces and augmented/virtual reality in the battlefield will lead to a pervasive robotisation of the battlefield and the rise of (mis-)information-driven capabilities
• Dominance of unmanned and autonomous platforms on the battlefield: in 2040, the extensive integration of unmanned platforms in the military domain will trigger major changes to the structure and organisation of Defence Ministries, particularly as regards military operational doctrine, equipment, acquisition policy and logistics implications
• Hybrid human-machine teaming, also in the military: by 2040, there will be a seamless integration and cooperation between humans and machines. This scenario deals with the consequences this development will have on technology, as well as ethical and regulatory frameworks
• Proliferation of more and more sophisticated biological weapons: by 2040, climate change, global migration and the rise of megacities will result in new diseases, natural catastrophes and new resistant microbes created by the widespread misuse of antibiotics and other drugs. New biohazard stemming from the use of synthetic biology and gene edition technologies will emerge, which may be used as a bioweapon or biothreat
• Enhanced cognitive abilities of soldiers (human enhancement): this scenario outlines the key impact advances in biotechnology, synthetic biology, gene edition technology and brain-computer interfaces will have on soldiers as those technologies can be used to enhance human being’s cognitive and physical capabilities
• Real time mapping of dynamic environments: by 2040, quantum sensing and quantum navigation will have made leaps ahead in the development resulting in real-time mapping capabilities of every changing environments. The consequence on the military capabilities are addressed in this scenario
• Use of misinformation: by 2040, the misuse of information will become a weapon targeting all information systems and enabling a scale of influencing operations challenging the capability of nation-states to counter or control. The boundaries between military and civilian domains will continue to blur
• Environmental problems, energy supply, climate change: by 2040, climate aspects and biodiversity will become geo-strategic drivers and subjects of conflicts and confrontations. Energy supply, too, will remain a major factor of strategic dominance. From a defence point of view, and despite the huge investments made in new energy generation and storage systems, energy will remain a critical challenge for most defence systems and operations.

The impact those 10 scenarios will likely have in the defence domain, and the types of adaptations they will require, were then analysed from different time perspectives, i.e. very short term (2024), medium term (2030) and long term (2040).

Final conclusions 

A final report with the exercise conclusions should be available by the end of March on the exercise website.

 

During his visit to Beijing to attend the Winter Olympics, President Alberto Fernandez made Argentina's entry to the Belt & Road Initiative official with a Memorandum of Understanding signed on the weekend of 5 and 6 February. This is the

Shift5's series B round closed on 8 February (IO, 18/11/20), as the OT systems cybersecurity company headed by Joshua Lospinoso

Just before Indonesia finalised its order for six Rafales plus 36 optional aircraft from France on 10 February (IO, 23/11/21),