Rusia ha utilizado en el referéndum en Cataluña la “combinación” (kombinaciya), un tipo de operación que puede integrar ciberguerra, ciberinteligencia, desinformación, propaganda y colaboración con actores hostiles a los valores de la democracia liberal.
The Central African Republic (CAR) has earned an undesirable reputation as one of the most troubled spots on earth. Many international and regional mediation efforts have attempted to resolve the conflict in CAR. Less discussed, however, are a multiplicity of local mediation efforts aiming to bring about tangible immediate change.
This report focuses on these local efforts, looking at who is involved, the nature of the deals, and their prospects. It also asks whether these constitute new approaches to conflict resolution and discusses the links (or lack thereof) between the various mediation tracks in CAR. Lastly, it addresses the role that the UN, particularly the UN peacekeeping mission (MINUSCA), ought to play in supporting or conducting these efforts. Based on this assessment, it offers several recommendations to the UN mission, the UN Secretariat, and the Security Council:
„Sí se puede! Sí se puede“ - „Ja, es ist zu schaffen!“, so die markanten Worte des Präsidenten am Wahlabend des 22. Oktobers 2017 − und es war zu schaffen: Das Regierungsbündnis Cambiemos (Ändern wir uns) weitet seine Macht landesweit erheblich aus, erhält jedoch keine Mehrheit im Parlament.
La crise des démocraties européennes a conduit à un repli sur soi et à un réveil des cicatrices du passé, comme le prouve l'exemple de la Catalogne. Populisme et indépendantisme sont aujourd'hui les deux facettes d'un même malaise identitaire.
You can read here the article on the future of the Hellenic Army which was written by Director General of ELIAMEP Dr Thanos Dokos. This commentary was published in the Greek daily Kathimerini on 1 November 2017 [in Greek].
Frente a la aparición de problemas de gobernabilidad transatlántica, el desafío pasará por la capacidad que tenga el espacio iberoamericano de conseguir congregar una heterogeneidad de países en torno a un núcleo de valores y descubrir los intereses estratégicos que comparten.
The aim of China’s Silk Road Initiative is to bolster both its international legitimacy and its geopolitical power. One important element of the initiative is the plan to transport export goods by high-speed train to Western Europe. In order to ensure that rapid freight transit is profitable in the long term, Beijing believes that major changes are needed along the borders of Central Asia. The Chinese government has explicitly called for reforms from its partner countries, including Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, meaning greater economic openness, regional cooperation and modern border crossings.
The opportunities for change in Central Asia are now much better than in the past. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s growth models have reached their limits and both countries are now under considerable pressure to reform. Uzbekistan’s new president has also announced promising new reform policies. In addition, political rule in Central Asia is now more institutionalized and, therefore, increasing scope for partial reforms. Furthermore, since the beginning of the century, China has become a powerful actor in the region. Unlike Russia, it is interested in better intra-regional cooperation in Central Asia and, ultimately, the Silk Road Initiative provides incentives for reform and greater cooperation at the borders.
For Germany and the EU, it might be worth discussing common interests with China and how synergies could be used to positively influence the reforms. The EU can draw on the knowledge and experience gained from its long-term project on border reforms in Central Asia.
Ten years after Hamas violently seized power in Gaza, and following a string of failures to reconcile the Palestinian factions, there are now signs of a rapprochement between Fatah and Hamas. In September 2017 the Hamas leadership announced it would dissolve the administrative committee it had established in March, opening the way for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to take over the government in the Gaza Strip. In mid-October representatives of Hamas and Fatah signed an Egyptian-mediated reconciliation agreement. On 1 November PA forces were deployed to the Palestinian side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Even if there are still major obstacles to merging the two security apparatuses, establishing a unity government, restoring the democratic process and achieving comprehensive reconciliation – the chances of the rapprochement preventing another round of armed conflict and improving the situation for the population in crisis-ridden Gaza are considerably better this time around. Germany and its European partners should help to accentuate the positive dynamics, support permanent improvements of the situation in Gaza through practical steps and work towards comprehensive reconciliation between the Palestinian factions.
On November 3rd, IPI welcomed researchers from the Advanced Consortium on Cooperation, Conflict and Complexity (AC4) at the Earth Institute-Columbia University to share their findings on the central attributes of peaceful communities. In attendance were representatives from various Permanent Missions to the UN, civil society representatives and UN staff.
The event, held under the Chatham House rule of non-attribution, was opened by Youssef Mahmoud, IPI Senior Adviser, who outlined the main features of IPI’s ongoing work on sustaining peace, which focuses in on modalities and processes for identifying and strengthening the existing resilient capacities of societies under stress, rather than the factors that drive and sustain conflict. To do this, he said, it is important to uncover and measure the factors that are associated with durable peace.
The participants then heard a presentation from lead researcher Peter T. Coleman, Executive Director of AC4, and his team, Douglas P. Fry, Larry S. Liebovitch and Jaclyn Donahue, which showcased the recent findings of their project entitled The Science of Sustaining Peace. They outlined the research being done at AC4, which aims to identify, map and model the factors relating to sustaining peace and the prevention of destructive conflict.
The research utilizes historical and anthropological data, among other sources, to identify the key factors present in peaceful societies throughout history and in the present day. The data shows, firstly, that peaceful societies are possible and war is a relatively new idea in the span of human history.
Secondly, the data reveals some key factors that peaceful societies have in common such as interconnections between subgroups and forms of interdependence, a culture of nonviolence and an overarching social identity. Dr. Coleman also highlighted that though these factors are common throughout peaceful societies, the relationships between them are sometimes unclear in the context of complex societies. Promoting one factor may have unforeseen consequences in relationship to other factors.
To better understand the relationship between these complex factors, the team at AC4 has created both a qualitative and a mathematical model. The models are intended to map data and factors, and foster a better understanding of the relationship between factors. These outputs will be used to assist policymakers in understanding the effects of interventions, and hopefully inform future policies on the road to sustaining peace.
Though the project is still ongoing, Dr. Coleman ended the presentation by offering preliminary policy recommendations on the implementation of sustaining peace. Research has shown that one of the key investments policymakers can make is in peace education. By promoting education at a young age that focuses on topics such as conflict resolution, non-warring values, cooperative learning, and violence prevention, children will learn to think critically and make decisions that will promote peaceful societies throughout their lives.
The floor was then opened to participants for comment. Speakers noted that existing work on the topic contains considerable gaps, such as incomplete research and inadequate consultation with local voices in sustaining peace. It was also noted that existing research often lacks a gender component, which is integral to sustaining peace. Speakers further argued that in-depth research that incorporates inclusive consultation will greatly assist their work as policy makers. Many speakers expressed interest in knowing how the research presented by AC4 and other institutions can be translated into coherent policy recommendations that make the sustaining peace agenda more effective.
Mr. Mahmoud closed the event by reiterating that emphasis must be put on mapping sustainable peace as well as spotting drivers of conflict. He commended the research produced by AC4, and he noted that evidence-based analysis will continue to be important to understanding and implementing sustainable peace.
España mantiene la 12ª posición en el Índice Elcano de Presencia Global, aunque pierda cuota de presencia global en todas sus dimensiones (al igual que otros países de su entorno).