Diplomacy & Crisis News

Who needs state-owned propaganda when the president has friends like these?

General James Mattis has accumulated perhaps one of the largest personal libraries of an active-duty military officer ever known in the modern world.

Tom note: I’d forgotten about this item, which originally ran on June 8, 2015. I am rerunning it now because it has current interest.

/ France, Élections, Politique, Société - Europe / France, Élections, Politique, Société - Europe

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) released its annual 2017 World Press Freedom Index which revealed Taiwan as the top place among other Asian countries and ranks no. 45 in the world (nations in black are the least free). (RSF)

In the quest for geopolitical influence, soft power can often augment a nation’s traditional hard power resource of a strong military. The concept of soft power, often associated with Harvard professor Joseph Nye, has been defined as “a persuasive approach to international relations, typically involving the use of economic or cultural influence.” Nations have long used economic incentives or foreign aid to win friends internationally, and the widespread popularity of a nation’s culture, such as Hollywood movies and South Korean pop culture, can also contribute to positive images of a country.

While nations may seek positive images in the quest for soft power, oftentimes the opposite occurs, and nations lose soft power. Two recent examples include the U.S., where the new president has yet to gain the confidence of the majority of the public. According to a new Pew Research Center survey spanning 37 nations, a median of just 22% have confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs, and favorable views of the U.S. have fallen from 64% to 49%. Inside the U.S., 53% of voters disapprove of the job President Trump’s doing, according to a new Fox News Poll. 

Over in China, President Xi Jinping’s numbers are not much better, with a 28% of those world citizens polled believing Xi would do the right thing regarding world affairs. The reasons behind this low polling are varied, but are arguably influenced by the detention of human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, who called for political reforms and died on July 13 in custody.

 One nation which recently gained some soft power, whose status remains a bone of contention among Washington and Beijing, is Taiwan. The decision by Reporters Without Borders (Reporters Sans Frontières) to open its first Asian regional headquarters in Taipei, is a stark departure from original plans to locate in Hong Kong. In explaining its decision, RSF (an advocate for press freedom) cited concerns over increasing media control in Hong Kong and potential infiltration by spies from mainland China.

According to RSF’s global rankings last year, Taiwan has now become the freest country on the Asian continent. At a news conference in Taipei last month, announcing the official launch of RSF, its secretary-general Christophe Deloire said “Taiwan is pure evidence that democracy and press freedom are possible in Chinese culture, and that is really one of the strongest arguments against claims by Beijing authorities their system is really adapted to Chinese culture.”

Soft power gains, such as the location of RSF to Taipei, can in part offset other losses (the recent loss of diplomatic recognition of Taiwan by countries like Panama), are often cost-effective compared to risky foreign investment, and should continue to be pursued as an effective tool in augmenting hard power.

The post Soft Power Gain for Taiwan appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n°2/2017). Héloïse-Anne Heuls propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Dominique Thomas, Générations djihadistes. Al-Qaïda – État islamique, histoire d’une lutte fratricide (Éditions Michalon, 2016, 224 pages).

Dominique Thomas, expert des mouvements djihadistes, décrypte ici minutieusement un domaine qu’il connaît bien et sur lequel il a déjà livré de nombreuses analyses. Son état des lieux est riche de détails et pose la question de l’impact des révoltes de 2011 sur la bipolarisation du champ djihadiste mondial.

À l’ombre des printemps arabes, les groupes djihadistes ont progressé, se nourrissant de l’instabilité des révoltes et de l’échec de certains gouvernements de transition. L’émergence de multiples courants islamistes a par ailleurs poussé les organisations les plus influentes à l’aggiornamento, laissant apparaître des querelles pour la régence de l’autorité djihadiste. Les luttes fratricides entre l’État islamique et Al-Qaïda en sont la résultante majeure. Les querelles auxquelles se livrent ces deux courants trouvent leurs origines dans des dissensions à la fois théoriques et générationnelles. Si le groupe État islamique a su rendre audible son message, concurrençant la dialectique plus élitiste d’Al-Qaïda et distançant son rival sur l’usage des moyens de communication, il souffre d’un manque de prédicateurs influents dans ses rangs.

La rivalité entre les deux groupes, qui trouve son origine, pour Dominique Thomas, au cœur de l’histoire contemporaine de l’Irak, se matérialise par une confrontation pour la suprématie du djihad global, qui s’incarne dans une surenchère opérationnelle. Si le socle commun des deux mouvements est le courant salafiste djiha­diste, sur les fronts comme sur le fond, deux modèles s’opposent dans la gestion des territoires. L’un, plus inclusif, pratiqué par Al-Qaïda depuis 2011, témoigne d’une adaptation aux particularismes locaux dont l’objectif est la mutualisation des effectifs et des moyens ; l’autre, plus exclusif, s’incarne dans les stratégies d’élimination et de soumission de l’État islamique contre ses concurrents. Al-Qaïda, en valorisant son identité arabo-islamique, a réussi par son expansion à émerger dans de nouveaux foyers. L’État islamique, dont la composition est plus disparate, a mobilisé de jeunes djihadistes en manque de responsabilités au sein d’Al-Qaïda, et s’est lancé dans une conquête territoriale en se présentant comme un pilier de la défense des Arabes sunnites, établissant dans ses zones contrôlées une administration et rétablissant de nombreux services sociaux. Évoluant selon des modèles différents, parfois opposés, les deux entités ont cependant réussi à adapter ou repenser leurs discours dans le contexte des révoltes arabes.

La conclusion de Dominique Thomas est sans appel. L’influence d’Al-Qaïda, de nombreuses fois annoncée comme dépassée, est certes fluctuante, mais le groupe joue sur une forte résilience. Après le démantèlement de son sanctuaire afghan en 2001, l’organisation est parvenue à exporter son modèle et à créer de nouvelles franchises, grâce aux retours de ses combattants dans leurs pays d’origine. L’État islamique, après avoir étendu son autorité sur un territoire de 300 000 km2 à son apogée en 2015, décroît désormais, laissant apparaître ses faiblesses structurelles. Dans son autopsie de l’hydre djihadiste, Dominique Thomas constate que les organisations qui la composent, si elles passent par des périodes de faiblesse, parviennent à surmonter les vagues en s’appuyant sur leurs réseaux locaux et des discours qui parviennent aujourd’hui encore à séduire.

Héloïse-Anne Heuls

Pour vous abonner à Politique étrangère, cliquez ici.

La nouvelle candidature de M. Abdelaziz Bouteflika à l'élection présidentielle du 17 avril provoque l'exaspération d'une population qui n'attend plus rien de ses dirigeants. / Algérie, Armée, Développement, Élections, État, Mouvement de contestation, Parti politique, Politique, Santé, Société, (...) / Algérie, Armée, Développement, Élections, État, Mouvement de contestation, Parti politique, Politique, Santé, Société, Corruption - 2014/04

/ Europe, Europe de l'Est, Russie, Ukraine, Énergie, Minorité nationale, Nucléaire civil - Europe / Europe, Europe de l'Est, Russie, Ukraine, Énergie, Minorité nationale, Nucléaire civil - Europe

D'un côté, l'Equateur, petit pays sud-américain de quinze millions d'habitants. De l'autre, Chevron, mastodonte de l'industrie pétrolière. Combat inégal ? Qu'importe. Quito est déterminé à faire payer la multinationale pour la pollution dont elle est responsable. / Amérique latine, Équateur, États-Unis, (...) / Amérique latine, Équateur, États-Unis, Entreprise, Amérindiens, Industrie, Justice, Multinationales, Pétrole, Santé, Environnement, Amérique du Sud, Pollution - 2014/03

(Photo Credit: KRG)

On this day, the international community marks the Yezidi genocide. On August 3, 2014, 40,000 Yezidis got stranded on Mount Sinjar. Since that date, horrific stories of sexual slavery, massacres and torture have emerged from the women who managed to escape from ISIS’ grip. On the first day of the genocide, 1,293 people were killed. From the first day of the genocide till the 15th of August, 2014, 6,470 people were kidnapped.

According to Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, who delivered a speech on the Yezidi Genocide Memorial Day, the Kidnapping Affairs Office (which is part of the Kurdistan’s Prime Minister’s Office) has managed to rescue 3,092 out of this number with 1,102 of them being women, 335 of them being men and 840 being girls under 18. Kharai Barzani, who represents the Yezidis in the Religious Affairs Ministry and supervises the Kidnappings Office, stressed that 1,600 Yezidi children were trained by ISIS in two ways. They received either ISIS Islamic instruction or military training. Nechirvan Barzani has succeeded to rescue some of them but others are still in ISIS captivity.

Kharai Barzani added that the Yezidi officials asked everyone to help them with the rescue efforts. Nechirvan Barzani opened up a case and that case became an office. Some Yezidis work there to rescue their kidnapped brethren: “We called everyone to help with the rescue efforts but no one came in the international community except Nechirvan Barzani, who has financed the rescue of Yezidis.” On the anniversary of the Yezidi Genocide, Barzani met with 30 girls in Duhok who were rescued by him in order to hear their stories and to ask about their needs.

Kharai Barzani blames the international community for not helping the Yezidis enough: “What happened to the Yezidis is genocide by all definitions. The international community did not do anything to rescue them. Even when Nechirvan Barzani rescues people, the international community does not come to help them. Sinjar is in our zone till now. The Shia militias are also there. Turkey also bombarded the place for the PKK is there. We call on the international community to help.”

However, the lack of response from the international community is not the only issue facing the Yezidis in their struggle to have their genocide recognized. Hussin Hassam is the Yezidi representative for the High Governmental Commission on the Yezidi Genocide that was established by Nechirvan Barzani: “Our commission visited the ICC and a lot of other international organizations to push the international community to recognize as genocide the crimes committed against the Yezidis. Unfortunately, we have been facing a lot of issues for the government in Baghdad is not cooperating with KRG in seeking global international justice for Iraq is not willing to bring groups to The Hague. We need to make a declaration to get the ICC to start a criminal case for these cases and that is why the Prime Minister has decided to do everything possible for the establishment of a special international court like in Rwanda.”

Because not all of the areas where ISIS committed crimes are under the KRG control presently and because the government in Baghdad is not cooperating, the KRG presently is forced to only begin a case regarding what happened in the southern side of the Sinjar Mountains: “This case is still open. We are trying to do our best to get a judicial ruling. We have gotten a lot of recognition of it as a genocide but so far, it was political for it was done by governments and international organizations. However, the KRG wants a judicial case.”

“The KRG still feels the pain of what happened three years ago,” Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said. “The KRG will do its best to reduce the pain of what happened to our beloved Yezidis. The acts of ISIS went beyond all cruelty.” Nechirvan Barzani emphasized that it was the Iraqi army that failed the Yezidis and other peoples of Nineveh in 2014 by running away instead of fighting ISIS: “It is clear to all that fighting terrorism and protection in Nineveh was the responsibility of the Iraqi forces. They had advanced weapons and all they needed. But when five Iraqi army divisions took off their uniform and ran away, they left behind the best and most advanced weapons to ISIS which they used to attack the Nineveh plains and the beloved Shingal region in particular.” The Prime Minister said that the arms Peshmerga had in possession were no match for the advanced weaponry ISIS had just seized from the Iraqi army: “When ISIS came with those weapons, they were more advanced than our Peshmerga. And with the old weapons they had in their hands, there was no way the Peshmerga could defend Shingal.”

According to Mahma Khalil, the PKK is inhibiting the rebuilding of the Sinjar Region today, stressing that some people cannot go back to their lands due to the PKK creating issues for them. Khalil emphasized that some people are also afraid since the PKK kidnaps children and trains them to join their group. For this reason, between the Shia Militias and the PKK, the Yezidi people in Mount Sinjar are not able to rebuild their lives in their ancestral homeland.

The post Remembering the Yezidi genocide appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n°2/2017). Virginie Nantchop propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Benjamin Michelon, Douala & Kigali. Villes modernes et citadins précaires en Afrique (Karthala, 2016, 320 pages).

Douala et Kigali sont deux villes importantes d’Afrique centrale. Si des cohérences géographique, historique et urbaine les rapprochent, ces villes présentent des trajectoires économique et politique, et une urbanisation, différenciées. L’auteur s’interroge sur les stratégies de ces villes désormais impliquées dans la compétition mondiale : quelle place est réservée à l’amélioration des conditions de vie des habitants des quartiers précaires ?

Le quartier (et son marché) est choisi par l’auteur pour faire une « anthropologie urbaine du changement social », permettant d’appréhender la fabrique de la ville à partir des pratiques sociales des habitants et des politiques des pouvoirs publics. Deux quartiers historiques, entre la ville coloniale et la ville moderne, sont choisis comme lieux d’observation de la fabrique urbaine : Biryogo à Kigali et Cité SIC à Douala.

Kigali est marquée par une forte dépendance vis-à-vis de l’État. Dans le contexte post-génocidaire, la reconstruction a pour objectif de créer une ville compacte, égalitaire, sur fond de réconciliation nationale. Kigali est appréciée pour ses rues propres et ses maisons bien alignées. La question sociale est au cœur des préoccupations des pouvoirs publics : il est urgent de promouvoir l’intégration urbaine des quartiers défavorisés. La métamorphose de Kigali, assurée par les acteurs privés et les bailleurs de fonds, est visible à travers ses nouveaux monuments (centres commerciaux et d’affaires). Les transformations observées positionnent le pays sur le devant de la scène internationale, mais ces changements s’accompagnent, dans l’ombre, de l’éviction des pauvres, victimes d’expropriations du fait de la libéralisation du marché foncier et de la spéculation. En outre, on observe une mutation des types de commerce et une relocalisation des espaces marchands. Les centres commerciaux, qui attirent une clientèle aisée, se substituent désormais aux marchés « traditionnels ».

À Douala, des agendas inachevés (modernisation architecturale, valorisation du patrimoine et des espaces verts, extension et renouvellement de réseaux d’infrastructures) caractérisent une ville qui s’affranchit difficilement des acquis du passé colonial. La dualité socio-spatiale qui prédomine dans la construction des infrastructures de services (eau, assainissement, transports) est perpétuée par les autorités locales. Le retrait relatif de l’État de la planification urbaine a des conséquences sur la production de l’espace urbain, largement assurée par les acteurs privés. L’habitat informel se développe ainsi en marge de toute intervention des pouvoirs publics. L’analyse des pratiques citadines à l’échelle du quartier révèle la complexité des rapports entre autorités locales et commerçants, permettant une lecture plus large des rapports entre autorités et habitants d’une ville historiquement réputée frondeuse.

Ces deux études montrent bien l’existence d’une forme d’expulsion des pauvres plus pernicieuse : l’éviction par le marché. En effet, si les États se saisissent de projets de construction de villes vitrines, symboles de modernité, moteurs du développement économique, leur mise en œuvre se révèle plus complexe. Le dirigisme étatique à Kigali et l’inertie observée à Douala reproduisent un schéma dichotomique – l’opposition entre la ville formelle et informelle – et accentuent la fragmentation urbaine.

Virginie Nantchop

Pour vous abonner à Politique étrangère, cliquez ici.

Despite China's averred commitment to climate action, Beijing’s foreign energy investments so far paint a drastically different picture.

Les extrêmes droites gagnent du terrain en Europe, même si nombre d'entre elles cherchent à se parer d'habits neufs. De toute évidence, de tels mouvements jouent un rôle en Ukraine. / Europe, Russie, Ukraine, Élections, Extrême droite, Histoire, Identité culturelle, Judaïsme, Mouvement de contestation, (...) / Europe, Russie, Ukraine, Élections, Extrême droite, Histoire, Identité culturelle, Judaïsme, Mouvement de contestation, Nationalisme, Nazisme, Parti politique, Politique, Racisme - 2014/03

Plus besoin de passer par des banques ou des institutions : le financement participatif permet aux particuliers de contribuer à la réalisation d'un projet. Dans le domaine culturel, l'artiste est ainsi libéré des diktats de l'industrie ou des subventions. Serait-ce le paradis ? / Art, Audiovisuel, (...) / Art, Audiovisuel, Cinéma, Culture, Finance, Industrie culturelle, Internet, Musique, Mutation, Technologies de l'information - 2014/03

On the road of corruption, there must often be a mechanism or legal shield in order to protect past crimes by individuals, parties or governments that have had their hands in the public purse for their personal gain or that of their party.

Silence may not protect high ranking politicians and corrupt community leaders from prosecution if public outrage and activist judicial authorities are able to break through the barrier of silence and power and find those who have committed crimes against the public interest. Brazil is an example where the powerful have been tied to corrupt practices, and while not a perfect and wholly agreed upon solution, moves towards de-legitimizing corruption in Brazil has begun.

Often the concentration of power to one individual or party comes with the presentation of actions that will improve the public good. Altering an election system to make individual votes more balanced is something that any citizen of any country would approve of, but when it installs one party and one President or Prime Minister indefinitely by legal means, it de-legitimizes the law and assures that a small cabal of powerful people has almost total control of the society with no effective means to remove them from power. In many cases, these actions come on the heels of issues linked to corruption or are formalized in a manner that protects powerful politicians from being subject to transparency.

Another abuse of power that often follows this normalization of corruption is that opposition to the government change in policy is labelled and ostracized so they lose legitimacy in their perspective, or in some cases are outright arrested for working against the state itself.

There are no true international mechanisms to assure that elections will not install corrupt governments when the national legal framework is changed to suit the powerful few over the public. An international standard of legal alterations that would avoid the absolute corruption of a legal and political system would be useful, but would require unified and legitimate political will.

Venezuela as a case in point has legalized a committee that will change their constitution to make it into one that permits a concentration of power into a one party state. Protests have been met with violence, and with the current government’s stockpile of advanced weapons over the last twelve years, there is a good chance that Venezuela will resemble the 2009 mass protests in Iran, with their own Neda and silence from the international community. In 2017, it seems as if international crimes and the natural response to promote justice are limited by illegitimate legal power in places like Venezuela, and silence from most international media while local media is threatened and imprisoned.

This combination guarantees that the worst elements of dictatorships almost always succeed in our current generation.

The post Venezuela is on the Road to a One Party State appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Les fondations reconnues d'utilité publique bénéficient de dons défiscalisés. Les missions conduites par certaines d'entre elles viennent pourtant parfois concurrencer, voire mettre en cause, des services rendus par l'Etat. / France, Éducation, État, Fiscalité, Parti politique, Religion, Service (...) / France, Éducation, État, Fiscalité, Parti politique, Religion, Service public, Associations, Groupe de pression, Privatisation - 2014/03

North Korea has proven  its determination once again to fulfill its aspiration as a self-proclaimed Nuclear Power State with a new ballistic test on July 27th. These tests marked the 64th anniversary of the signing of the Korean armistice. According to the US Department of Defense, an intermediate-range missile Hwasong-14 traveled 620 miles from a Jagang base before landing into the Sea of Japan, within Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

This test represents a new challenge to Washington, after Pyongyang conducted its first successful ICBM test last July 1st, which proved that the regime has now reached a new and dreadful stage in the acquisition of preemptive first strike capabilities. Despite the initial predictions, under Kim Jong-un’s leadership, the quest for nuclear weapons has achieved significant breakthroughs. The regime has reached an unprecedented level of sophistication in a number of vital areas, including the development of solid-duel rocket engines and the expansion of mobile launch capabilities.

While Pyongyang has made important progress in the acceleration of its intercontinental range ballistic missile program, North Korea’s regime pushes towards the acquisition of the miniaturization technology considered critical to arm a nuclear warhead. The nation could plausibly achieve this milestone in early 2018 as reported by an anonymous CNN source.

Many observers consider this new test additional evidence about Pyongyang’s determination to deliver a “stern warning to Washington in response to any attempt to alter the peninsula status quo”. North Korea’s warmongering to annihilate the U.S. could now be more than an empty threat since it appears that Pyongyang has acquired the capabilities to hit major cities beyond the West Coast. There is the possibility that the range of the North Korean missile could potentially reach New York City and Washington DC, fostering concerns over Pyongyang’s aggressive intentions.

In the aftermath of the recent missile test, two B-1B Bomber Jets have been deployed to the Korean peninsula, joining Japanese and South Korean fighter jets for training exercise purposes. The United States have also tested the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in Alaska by launching a mock ballistic missile in the Pacific Ocean to prove their ability to repel any incoming threat, and to inspire its allies over Washington’s adamant commitment to contrast any further expansion of Pyongyang’s nuclear threat.

The U.S. Pacific Air Forces Commander, Gen. O’Shaughnessy has warned North Korea that the U.S. may “respond with rapid, lethal and overwhelming force at a time and place of our choosing”, highlights that the defiant regime is getting close to Washington’s redline. Meanwhile, UN Ambassador Haley has stressed that the U.S. could pursue a different pact, including the deployment of “consistent military forces”, rather than relying on the UN Security Council to consider further actions. Washington has expressed its frustration several times for its inability to produce consistent results through conventional diplomatic tools to rein in Pyongyang, even acknowledging two decades of failed attempts to denuclearize North Korea.

Over the years, North Korea’s militaristic propaganda has several times made threats to Washington about serious military retaliations in response to any incoming threat to the survival of the Kim’s dynasty. Amid the growing tensions in the Korean peninsula, Pyongyang has further stressed and justified its path toward the acquisition of nuclear capabilities as a tool to achieve the natural vocation of the DPRK as a nuclear power nation as enshrined in its Constitution. The ultimate strategy is to further consolidate its position and eventually force Washington to normalize relations.

During the Obama Administration, Pyongyang offered a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War in return for Washington’s commitment to renounce the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, a de facto recognition of Pyongyang’s nuclear power status. Such a proposal was promptly rejected by Washington, urging for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula as a prerequisite for restarting any new negotiation.

North Korea has become one of the most pressing priorities for the Trump Administration. Its resolution to tame the belligerent regime under the auspices of Beijing has so far produced little results. Trump’s Administration has also expressed its regrets for China’s limited efforts to curb North Korea’s nuclear program, calling for a more radical engagement in restraining Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. Since the Trump Administration took office, regular promises to“take care” of the North Korea issue have characterized the very last days of the previous “strategic patience” strategy.

Trump Administration’s initial entente with China and its attempts to convince Beijing to fully recalibrate its North Korean policy have not produced the expected results, raising tensions culminated in the recent threats of waging a trade war against China. Despite this, Beijing has expressed its frustration for not being able to regain control of the former communist ally, the Chinese leadership remains committed to preventing the collapse of the North Korean regime and the marked geo-strategic alteration that could emerge from the ashes of the hermit kingdom under the auspices of Washington.

Due to the increasing level of North Korea’s nuclear assertiveness, the discussion over a military intervention in the Korean Peninsula has become a recurring topic. The consequence of a military action would certainly expose Washington and its close allies to major retaliation, not to mention the disruption of the fragile balance of the regional security architecture.

Kim Jong-un’s decision to pursue nuclear development along with economic expansion has characterized his personal agenda (byungjin policy) leaves no doubts that the international sanctions and diplomatic pressure from China would not alter the direction taken by the North Korean leadership. North Korean leadership considers itself constantly exposed to foreign attack or internal coup that could destitute Kim’s family sharing the fate of other authoritarian regimes such as Ghaddafi’s Libya in the wake of his decision to abandon the nuclear program in return of expected economic aids under  Washington’s pressure.

North Korea’s regime is now one of the most immediate threats to US national security and also an additional challenge for the Trump Administration, constantly engaged in redefining the contours of American strategic architecture in the Asia-Pacific region. Albeit, Washington remains adamant in instilling faith in its closer allies towards its strategic commitment in the region while confronting the growing threat represented by the North Korean regime, the risk of igniting a conflict in the region, whose catastrophic effects could far outweigh the removal of Kim’s dynastic rule, must be avoided.

The post North Korea’s ICBM Test Jeopardizes Regional Balance of Power appeared first on Foreign Policy Blogs.

Cette recension a été publiée dans le numéro d’été de Politique étrangère (n°2/2017). John Seaman, chercheur au Centre Asie de l’Ifri, propose une analyse de l’ouvrage de Jean-François Huchet, La crise environnementale en Chine. Évolutions et limites des politiques publiques (Presses de Sciences Po, 2016, 152 pages).

Une conséquence néfaste de l’essor économique chinois – qui a permis de sortir plusieurs centaines de millions de personnes de la pauvreté – est le cauchemar environnemental qu’il a généré. Ce n’est certes pas une particularité de la Chine, mais comme l’explique Jean-François Huchet, la crise y est d’une ampleur inédite. Paradoxalement, c’est la vitalité de l’économie chinoise qui est à terme menacée, et donc la stabilité politique du pays.

S’engageant dans la voie ouverte par Benoît Vermander (Chine brune ou Chine verte ? Les dilemmes de l’État-parti, 2007), Jean-François Huchet, professeur à l’Inalco et spécialiste du monde économique et industriel chinois, concentre son propos sur l’étendue de la crise environnementale du pays, offrant une introduction concise mais sérieuse sur le sujet. Il commence par un inventaire assez complet des manifestations extérieures de cette crise (pollution atmosphérique ; épuisement des nappes phréatiques et pollution généralisée de l’eau en Chine ; dégradation des sols, érosion et désertification ; gestion insuffisante des déchets industriels et ménagers). Mais, de l’aveu de l’auteur, les coûts humains et économiques restent sous-étudiés, bien que certains soient clairement visibles.

Pour aller plus loin, les effets internationaux engendrés par cette crise restent aussi à explorer : l’impact sur le changement climatique est bien étudié, mais d’autres sphères, comme la biodiversité maritime ou la pollution transfrontalière, le sont moins, même de manière générale, dans la littérature spécialisée. Jean-François Huchet s’attaque ensuite à l’identification des causes structurelles de la crise, notamment une conception persistante, née sous Mao Zedong, des rapports homme-nature qui favorisent l’exploitation vers l’épuisement de cette dernière : le poids inéluctable de la question démographique, l’urbanisation frénétique, les choix énergétiques (place centrale au charbon) et, tout simplement, l’échelle absolue de l’économie chinoise.

Pour surmonter cette crise, la Chine se réveille certes, mais tardivement, et de manière encore insuffisante pour l’auteur. Il est vrai que la population chinoise – avec en premier lieu la classe moyenne urbaine – semble s’engager davantage, que les autorités à Pékin affichent désormais une volonté politique plus forte en matière de protection environnementale, que des réformes administratives et juridiques progressent dans le domaine, et qu’une transformation économique est amorcée, qui favorise (et se base quelque part sur) le développement des énergies renouvelables et des industries moins polluantes.

Toutefois, nous explique l’auteur, la Chine est bien loin de sortir du bois : les questions structurelles pèsent encore lourdement, et redessiner les liens complexes entre le développement économique, l’autorité politique et la protection environnementale à différents niveaux n’est pas chose facile (effets de la décentralisation, influence des lobbies industriels, culture de consommation prédominante…) La Chine restera pendant un certain temps un pays à deux vitesses sur la question : en marche vers le développement des solutions environnementales, tout en persistant dans des activités effrénées qui épuisent les écosystèmes chinois et planétaires.

John Seaman

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Women continue to be disproportionately affected by drug use, and face obstacles in accessing treatment, compared to men, according to the President of the United Nations International Narcotics Control Board (INCB).

La guerre au Nil Bleu, qui fait rage depuis plus de trois ans, menace de sombrer dans l'oubli. Elle voit s'affronter, comme au Kordofan du Sud tout proche, les forces gouvernementales et les rebelles du SPLM/A-N, alliés historiques du parti au pouvoir au Soudan du Sud. / Afrique, Soudan, (...) / Afrique, Soudan, Conflit, Guérilla, Réfugiés, Soudan du Sud - 2014/02