Diplomacy & Crisis News

“Rumor has it that rumors are nothing but rumors.” I read that line in a children’s joke book back when I was a wee-bitty lad, and as cheesy as that sounds, I think it is applicable to all the wild speculation and RUMINT (RUMor INTelligence, a slang acronym I learned from reading the Rogue Warrior books by U.S Navy SEAL Team 6 founding C.O. Richard “Demo Dick” Marcinko) about those drones overflying New Jersey.

Now, in my professional opinion as a former U.S. Air Force officer, I’m pretty sure that these drones have not flown directly from any of America’s adversaries, i.e., China, Russia, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the Democratic Republic of Korea; unlike, say, that infamous ChiCom spy balloon, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) simply do not have that sort of operational range.

But on the other hand, all four countries certainly do have their fair share of intelligence assets and sympathizers within U.S. borders, so I won’t rule out the possibility that insider threats could either purchase domestically available drones and deploy them or—less likely—find a way to smuggle their mother countries’ UAVs into our country.

Strictly for argument’s sake, let’s propose that the second possibility is correct and that the culprit is indeed China. In that case, the specific threat vector device in question could conceivably be the WZ-7 “Soaring Dragon” UAV.

WZ-7 Initial History and Specifications

Though the maiden flight date of the Guizhou WZ-7 Soaring Dragon (Wu zhen-qi Xiang Lóng) is not known, we do know that it was produced from 2015 to 2016 (with twenty specimens built thus far) and introduced into operational service with the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in 2018. However, the drone wasn’t officially unveiled to the general public until the 2021 Zhuhai Airshow.

The “Soaring Dragon” is manufactured by Chengdu, the same state-owned enterprise that makes the J-20 Weilong (“Mighty Dragon”; NATO reporting name “Fagin”) fifth-generation stealth fighter. Reportedly twenty WZ-7s have been built thus far. Specifications and vital status include:

• Fuselage Length: 14.33 m (47 ft 0 in)
• Wingspan: 24.86 m (81 ft 7 in)
• Height: 5.41 m (17 ft 9 in)
• Powerplant: one Guizhou WP-13 turbojet or unknown type of turbofan, 43.1 kN (9,700 lbf) thrust; this engine is mounted in the rear of the airframe, whilst the engine’s air intake is mounted atop the fuselage
• Cruise speed: 750 km/h (466 mph, 405 kn)
• Range: 7,000 km (4,300 mi, 3,800 nmi)
• Combat range: 2,000 km (1,200 mi, 1,100 nmi)
• Endurance: 10 hours (at maximum speed; with turbojet)
• Service ceiling: 18,000 m (59,000 ft)
• Thrust-to-Weight Ratio: 5.8

Other salient features include a pair of canted tails and a tandem, joined-wing design.

The Likely Suspect or an Adequate Alibi?

Now, with those sorts of dimensions, it may seem unlikely that the Soaring Dragon was smuggled into the United States—particularly in multiples—to perform those shenanigans in the skies over “Joizey.”

But then again, never underestimate the diabolical ingenuity of smugglers. Thinking back to my days as a U.S. Customs & Border Protection Officer (CBPO), one of my instructors at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center told us the wild story of how some CBPOs thwarted an attempt to smuggle a Russian-made Mi-24 “Hind” helicopter gunship across the southern border on a freight train! (And then, though not as ambitious or large-scale as attempting to smuggle either a chopper or a drone, there’s also the human car seat incidents.)

Known Operational History and Performance

Known instances of the “Soaring Dragon” harassing and spying upon U.S. assets and/or U.S. allies’ assets in the INDOPACOM region include:

-July 24, 2019, when a WZ-7 shadowed the U.S. Navy Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Antietam (CG-54) as she transited the Taiwan Strait.

-December 15, 2022, when a WZ-7 was deployed near the Indian border in Tibet.

-January 1, 2023, when Japan Air Self-Defense Force F-15J Peace Eagles flying over the East China Sea successfully intercepted a WZ-7.

-March 26, 2024, when a WZ-7 overflew the northwestern end of the South China Sea near the Philippines while apparently monitoring the deployment of the U.S. Army’s new Typhon ground-based missile system on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

About the Author: Christian D. Orr

Christian D. Orr is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch, The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, and Simple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS). If you’d like to pick his brain further, you can ofttimes find him at the Old Virginia Tobacco Company (OVTC) lounge in Manassas, Virginia, partaking of fine stogies and good quality human camaraderie.

Image: Shutterstock.

Georgia is backsliding. In October, deeply flawed parliamentary elections confirmed a renewed mandate for the country’s ruling party, against the will of the Georgian people. A brutal governmental crackdown on peaceful protesters followed, and ongoing unrest on the streets has deepened the dividing lines between Georgia’s westward-looking population and its increasingly authoritarian, Russia-oriented government.

I recently had the opportunity to witness the alarming erosion of democracy in Georgia firsthand as a member of a delegation to Tbilisi organized by the McCain Institute. It is a trend with serious implications for the United States and its interests in the South Caucasus. 

That’s because America’s contemporary partnership with Georgia is not built on oil, trade, or transactional interests alone. Rather, it represents a rare convergence of moral imperative and strategic importance. It is founded on shared values—a belief in democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—while simultaneously serving as a geopolitical counterweight in a strategically volatile region. Those very values are now under threat. For years, Georgia was a model of democratic transition in the “post-Soviet space.” The country made significant progress in strengthening institutions, promoting good governance, and building a vibrant civil society, emerging as both a moral beacon and a strategic asset for the West.

However, the authoritarian turn taken by the ruling Georgian Dream party in recent years has accelerated since the EU granted Georgia candidate status in December 2023. As international observers documented, the country’s October 26 elections were thus marred by widespread irregularities. Indeed, our delegation heard accounts of voter intimidation, ballot stuffing, and abuse of state resources.

Even more concerning is the post-election crackdown on dissent. We met with young men who had been abducted, beaten, and falsely charged simply for participating in protests. If the equivalent number of beatings requiring hospitalization had happened in the United States, accounting for population, the number would exceed 30,000. Journalists and civil society activists are being targeted, creating a climate of fear.

That, however, is just the most visible sign of a much deeper rot. Georgian Dream, controlled by pro-Kremlin billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has steadily dismantled Georgia’s hard-won democratic gains. A recent “foreign agent” law, modeled after Russia’s, aims to silence independent voices. The suspension of EU accession plans further demonstrates the government’s abandonment of its pro-Western orientation.

The situation has a number of critical geopolitical implications. 

Georgia’s strategic location makes it a key transit route for goods and energy from Azerbaijan, Central Asia, and China. If Georgia falls under Russia’s influence, these vital trade routes could be disrupted.

Georgia’s fate is also directly tied to Russia’s ambitions to reclaim territories lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Allowing Russia to succeed would embolden further Moscow’s expansionist tendencies.

Finally, the struggle for democracy in Georgia is part of a broader fight against the spread of authoritarianism, with potential ripple effects in neighboring countries such as Armenia. Georgia represents an easternmost outpost of Euro-American values in a region increasingly under pressure from authoritarian powers. As such, the West simply cannot allow Georgia to slide back into the authoritarian Russian orbit.

But what can be done? For the United States, the answer starts with recalibrating the relationship. Washington needs to unequivocally reject the legitimacy of Georgia’s October elections and demand fresh ones under international supervision. It needs to impose targeted sanctions on Ivanishvili and other key figures in the Georgian Dream regime, including those responsible for authorizing violence against protesters. It also needs to increase support for Georgian civil society and independent media, as well as funding for pro-democracy groups in the country through agencies such as USAID.

The crisis in Georgia presents a critical test for the West’s commitment to democracy and the rule of law. A failure to act decisively will have far-reaching consequences, not only for the Georgian people but also for the state of authoritarianism in a critical world region that remains very much up for grabs.

Laura Linderman is Senior Fellow and Director of Programs at the American Foreign Policy Council’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

Image: Mirko Kuzmanovic / Shutterstock.com. 

Russian president Vladimir Putin has often cast himself as the defender of the Orthodox faith, and he even allowed the church to regain a level of prominence in Russia not seen since before the revolution. Yet, the reality may be that since taking power a quarter century ago, Putin has simply exploited his religious connections to the Orthodox Church for his own political gain.

That would seem to be the case on Friday, as the Church of St. Nicholas in Kyiv—a national architectural monument—was damaged in the most recent Russian missile strike. The windows in the church's iconic twin towers were shattered, while other stained glass windows suffered damage.

"The rose window has been damaged, that is, the largest flower in the centre [meaning the large circular window above the entrance, a traditional feature of Gothic churches]. No plasterwork was harmed, only the stained-glass windows were shattered. The windows in the towers were also smashed," Father Pavlo Vyshkovskyi, parish priest of the Church Nicholas, told UP.Kultra per Ukraine's Pravda news outlet.

Ukraine's Ministry of Culture has yet to assess the damage, but images and videos posted on social media highlighted the aftermath of the missile strike directed at the heart of Kyiv.

Another Symbol of Resistance

The Church of St. Nicholas, known for its Gothic architecture, is the second oldest Catholic church in the Ukrainian capital. Constructed by the Latin Catholic community at the turn of the twentieth century, it was severely damaged in a September 2021 fire that destroyed its organ and damaged the interior.

Repairs began before Russia launched its unprovoked invasion in February 2022 and have continued even as Kyiv has come under missile and drone attacks.

Despite the recent attack, it was announced on Facebook that a Christmas Mass is still planned for December 24 and 25.

Putin Cast Himself as a Defender of the True Faith

Though there will likely be international outrage that the church suffered additional damage, it is now likely that Putin will spin the narrative, much as he has done in the past.

"This is another attack on the civilian population of Ukraine, there's no military reason to do this, and it should be considered a war crime," suggested Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of homeland security, international affairs, national security, and political science at the University of New Haven.

Russians may see it differently, and that may be the point.

"Ukraine is a multi-confessional country in a way that Russia is not, and Russian chauvinism is a heavy part of Putin's ideology," Schmidt told The National Interest. "Putin views Jews, Ukrainian Catholics, and even those who follow the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and not the Russian Orthodox as pawns of the West and as threats to the true church, which is the patriarchy in Moscow."

A New War of Religion?

Around 85 percent of Ukrainians identified as Christian, with 72 percent even identifying as Eastern Orthodox, yet, the country is also home to Muslims, Jews, and many other religions. Its western region is also far more religious, as opposed to its south and east.

That is where Putin's claims of defending the faith have also been part of his justification for launching the so-called "special military operation."

"This is part of the idea that 'neo-Nazis' have purportedly oppressed the Russian Orthodox population in the east, which Putin had called the 'New Russia' at the start of the war," explained Schmidt. "Putin has claimed that it is also part of protecting the holy Orthodox population of the so-called New Russia against a regime in Kyiv that is Catholic, that is Jewish and that simply isn't Russian – and falsely claiming that the true faith is being persecuted in Eastern Ukraine."

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock.

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Over a month has passed since Donald Trump’s election, and the war in Ukraine is escalating instead of ending. Various unverified proposals for negotiations have been floated to the press by the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, with little overlap between them. Mistrust of Russia is dominant and expected, but fears of the United States cutting a deal with Russia that is unfavorable to Ukraine are pervasive and counterproductive. Part of the problem lies in the unhealthy confusion between three interconnected but separate steps necessary to end the war: entering negotiations, reaching an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and establishing a post-war security architecture in Europe to hold the agreement in place. 

The United States will likely intend to initiate direct talks with Russia after Trump’s inauguration. However, this cannot be expected to result in a deal with Russia without Ukraine and Europe’s cooperation. Even if negotiations commence, the war could still continue and intensify if Ukraine and Europe do not feel safe in a post-war environment. The worry of punishment or abandonment by the United States in case of non-cooperation cannot be ignored, and the solution to avoid such a situation is a frank U.S.-European dialogue and active engagement.

Despite the importance of territorial, political, and cultural issues to be negotiated between Ukraine and Russia, the core concern for both Ukraine and Europe is guarantees that war will not erupt again. There is a genuine fear that Russia will use the armistice to rebuild and attack in a few years. Russia might also have the same concerns about Ukraine and the West. Post-war security architecture, then, is the key to reaching a sustainable agreement in Ukraine. Before talking to Russia, the West must agree on measures to deter and incentivize sustaining any armistice. Despite the significant Western support for Ukraine since the war started, a credible security architecture for post-war deterrence has not been established. 

Any agreement on post-war architecture should reflect the security concerns and national interests of the parties to be reached and respected. But what if the Western concerns and risk profiles towards Russia differ?

Within the West, there is a mismatch between vulnerabilities, escalation risk tolerance, and capabilities. The vulnerabilities of the frontline countries (the Nordic countries, the Baltics, and Poland) are the highest due to their proximity to Russia, while their capabilities are the weakest, accounting for less than 5 percent of NATO’s total defense spending. The rest of Europe is less vulnerable to Russia but more capable, with defense spending comprising 30 percent of NATO’s total. 

The least vulnerable to Russia and the most capable is the United States, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of NATO’s defense spending. Vulnerabilities shape concerns and, consequently, escalation risk tolerance. Throughout the past two years, the more tolerant to escalation risk are the most vulnerable and least capable in case of a bigger scale total NATO-Russia. To navigate these contradictions, the United States and Europe can only agree on a post-war division of responsibilities if they can match the concerns with capabilities and escalation risk tolerance profiles. 

Between September and November 2024, over thirty-five experts and officials from the United States, EU, Western Europe, Central Europe, and frontline countries, including Ukraine, deliberated to identify post-war security concerns and discover commonalities and differences.

The first observation is that Trump’s approach to the world is not an anomaly but rather a reflection of genuine U.S. priorities, which do not always align with those of Europe and Ukraine. 

The U.S. experts prioritized the following issues as concerns in the post-war environment: preventing nuclear war with Russia in the medium to long term, reducing Russian support for and relationships with its adversaries (such as North Korea, Iran, and China), and limiting hybrid attacks on U.S. infrastructure domestically and internationally. These concerns do not seem radically different from those the Biden administration articulated or what Vice President Kamala Harris might have prioritized had she been elected. The concern over nuclear escalation also explains the low tolerance for risk-taking demonstrated repeatedly—and frustratingly to Europeans—by the Biden administration.

The second observation is that the top three U.S. concerns towards Russia post-war did not include any threats in Europe. That is significant and will shape the form and scale of any future American engagement in post-war security in Europe. Europeans may be further disturbed to learn that U.S. experts were not overly worried about losing credibility in the eyes of China if Washington lets Brussels and Kyiv down. According to said experts, the dynamics between China and Taiwan are complex, and China is more likely to draw lessons from Russia’s costly failures in Ukraine than from the specifics of U.S. responses. For U.S. allies, the support for Ukraine so far has demonstrated what the United States is willing to do for a non-ally under attack, signaling a baseline for its future commitments to formal allies.

The third observation is that post-war Europe is likely to remain focused on small-scale Russian provocations aimed at testing NATO’s credibility. Both American and European experts did not anticipate a full-scale Russian invasion of NATO territory, as such an action would be both costly and risky for Russia, which is expected to be cautious about repeating the failures experienced in Ukraine. However, the front countries are considered more vulnerable to provocations, such as Russia potentially assembling a small force to seize a limited area of the Baltics. While such an event was deemed unlikely in the short term, it was not dismissed as entirely implausible in the medium to long term. Meanwhile, the Western and Central European groups expressed concerns about potential war fatigue undermining long-term commitments to credible deterrence and sustained support for Ukraine in the post-war period.

A Post-War Deterrence Strategy Synthesis

The only overlapping concern toward Russia within the West was the continuation of hybrid attacks. Depending on whether the war concludes with an armistice or a de facto ceasefire, hybrid attacks, such as sabotage and cyberwarfare, could remain a concern for both the United States and Europe. Despite this commonality, the nature and intensity of these attacks are likely to vary between Americans and Europeans.

The lower priority attached to Europe in U.S. foreign policy does not mean a collapse of the relationship and cooperation. The United States and Europe can find common ground on key issues such as preventing the collapse of Ukraine, protecting NATO’s front-line countries from future aggression, mitigating hybrid destabilization activities, and curbing Russian support for Iran and North Korea. Ultimately, the United States and Europe share common goals of security and prosperity. Yet, they must find ways to collaborate effectively at a time when gaps in values and institutional approaches are widening.

Even if negotiations start, both the United States and Europe would be interested in preventing a Ukrainian military collapse Ukraine. Europe could propose plans to support Ukraine’s defenses by urgently increasing supplies from European stockpiles. While this carries political risks, it is less costly than the financial and political catastrophe of a Ukrainian collapse and the mass exodus of 6 million Ukrainians to Europe and other countries abroad. Regardless of the form of post-war arrangements, Europe will bear a higher share of the burden. To show seriousness and build trust, a more balanced burden-sharing scheme could be proposed. For instance, increasing European defense spending to 2.5-3 percent of GDP could demonstrate commitment. Collaboration with U.S. military producers on replenishing stockpiles and establishing joint production and knowledge transfer programs would strengthen Europe’s industrial base and align U.S. interests with long-term European security.

Given the current level of distrust, no agreement with Russia, regardless of the details, will secure Europe if its post-war deterrence is not credible. To enable Ukraine-Russia negotiations to start and facilitate an agreement, Europe and the United States should work towards a two-pronged strategy: a porcupine defense posture (e.g., air defense, counter-mobility) for Ukraine to deter and defend against any future Russian violations of an armistice, and an augmented deterrence-by-denial structure in Europe to increase the cost of any future Russian aggression against NATO.

This approach matches the differing concerns, levels of commitment, and risk tolerance profiles of the United States and European countries. It is also unlikely to impede Ukrainian agreements with Russia. Europeans do not intend to provoke Russia, and post-war deterrence planning is still unfolding. More importantly, the specifics of deployed systems will depend on the particular post-war threats, the terms of any agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and Europe’s capacity to produce and deploy such systems.

Risk reduction measures and potential arms control agreements with Russia could help stabilize the situation and communicate intentions clearly. This post-war security structure will likely progress as long as Russia remains uncooperative. However, if Russia engages in good-faith discussions with the West, it could shape the future security framework. The longer Russia remains disengaged, the more difficult it will become to account for its interests in Europe’s post-war measures and arrangements.

Managing Expectations

Despite these possibilities of engaging with the United States, Europe should not be surprised if Washington pursues its own agenda with Moscow. This will require both managing expectations and preparing for times when U.S. interests diverge from Europe’s. The challenge for Europe is to compartmentalize the issues and establish new rules for the relationship to minimize damage. The inevitable will be for Europe to take care of its own business and become more independent. But will Washington accept that? This remains an open question.

Abdulla Ibrahim is a Senior Researcher at the Centre on Conflict Development and Peacebuilding (CCDP) at the Geneva Graduate Institute.

Image: PhotopankPL / Shutterstock.com. 

People and companies in China—indeed in business communities around the world—have eagerly embraced Beijing’s promises to enact policies that will restore the nation’s economic momentum. However, disappointment has always followed. It is beginning to look as though China’s leadership simply does not know what to do. This conclusion is entirely plausible since China’s economic and financial troubles largely sprouted from ill-conceived policies dating back to well before the pandemic. 

China’s economy has come a long way from the place that once garnered nothing but praise from Western media. Not too long ago, it was common to read that China’s economy would soon eclipse that of the United States. Commentary often praised the effectiveness and prescience of Chinese top-down planning, some suggesting that perhaps it was superior to the comparative chaos of democratic practice and market-based approaches. In 2009, for instance, New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman extolled what could be accomplished by China’s “one-party autocracy.” Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau spoke admiringly about how China’s “basic dictatorship” allowed it to “turn the economy around on a dime.” President Barack Obama gave credit to China’s approach to bringing millions out of poverty. This is just a small sample of the kind of commentary that was prevalent during China’s great growth strides. But now, that system seems to be failing.

Praise for the prescience of China’s central planning was always misplaced. Since modern China began as a severely underdeveloped and war-torn economy, its planners had an easy time identifying where the nation should put its emphasis. All they needed to do was to look at the developed world. They could see that building new roads, rail links, port facilities, housing, power stations, and the like would pay huge growth dividends, and they did. People rose from dire poverty and became richer. However, as China developed and joined more advanced economies, its future needs became less obvious. Beijing’s central planners had lost their model and increasingly began to make mistakes.

This new fact of economic life (for China) became evident in the 2010s. By then, the authorities had been promoting residential construction for some time, giving subsidies for building, advancing credit on easy terms to developers, and enlisting the support of local governments by making land sales lucrative for them and even encouraging them to enter joint ventures with developers. However, as China shifted from a housing-short economy to one of abundant housing, planners made the mistake of keeping these policies in place. Real estate development rose to an unsustainable 30 percent of China’s economy. 

When Beijing finally woke up to the problem, it made a second error. In 2019–2020, Beijing suddenly removed all the former support to the housing sector. The decision was reasonable, but the suddenness of the action caused problems. It caught both developers and local governments by surprise, leaving them no time to adjust. Having extended themselves under policies that no longer existed, developers and local governments faced severe financial troubles. In 2021, developers began to fail, and local governments began to report difficulties meeting their financial obligations, in some cases, even in providing basic public services. 

That year, matters in Chinese finance began to resemble those in the United States during the global financial crisis of 2008. Rather than act forcefully to stem the spread of financial failure, the authorities in Beijing made yet another mistake. They sat on their hands as if nothing were wrong. Their inaction allowed the financial problems to spread throughout the system, rendering Chinese finance far less able to support growth than it had been. Building activity fell, as did homebuying. Worse still, the lack of demand caused real estate values to fall. Because so much household wealth in China is tied up in a family’s home, this drop in real estate values hit household net worth hard and convinced most Chinese to pull back on consumer spending. In a short time, the economy lost support for both construction activity and the Chinese consumer. And as the economy slowed, private businesses in China rethought their expansion and hiring plans. Yet, the authorities failed to move. 

In a concurrent mistake, the authorities managed to exacerbate all this strain. When the rest of the world was re-opening after the COVID-19 Pandemic, Beijing imposed severe zero-Covid policies. Their associated lockdowns and quarantines interrupted workers’ incomes and accordingly gave consumers yet another and lasting reason to hold back spending. Those interruptions also interfered with the flow of goods for export, undermining China’s once-vaunted reputation for reliability and convincing buyers in the United States, Europe, and Japan that they needed to diversify their sourcing away from China. The country’s exports to these important regions have never fully recovered.

Only in 2023 did Beijing awaken to the need to do something to remedy these matters. Having waited so long, the government should have taken stronger remedial action. Yet, the planners, in yet another mistake, have shown remarkable timidity in the various palliatives they have offered. They added to their mistakes by deciding to make up for shortfalls in building, consumption, and private investment spending by using state-owned firms to enlarge productive capacities in what they believed were the industries of the future: electric vehicles, for instance, batteries, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and the like. 

With weak domestic spending, however, this new excess capacity only made China more dependent on exports than ever before. That was hardly an answer as there already existed a paucity of overseas buyers. American, European, and Japanese businesses were already diversifying their sourcing away from China and continue to do so. Washington, Brussels, and Tokyo also became increasingly hostile to Chinese trade, raising tariffs and putting other restrictions on sales to and from China.

Even this hostility in the developed world is at least partly the result of other mistakes made by China’s leadership. When anti-China attitudes first emerged in the West with Trump’s tariffs of 2018 and 2019, it was clear that Beijing could have softened Washington by moderating the policies of which the Americans had complained—subsidies to domestic industries, buy-local policies, patent theft, and Beijing’s insistence that any foreign firm operating in China had to have a Chinese partner with which it had to share its technological and trade secrets. However, China’s leadership refused to make any concessions, so the original Trump tariffs stayed in place, and the Biden administration built on them, including a 100 percent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles and batteries. Brussels and Tokyo have followed suit, though in a more moderate way.

Now, due to this cascade of policy errors, China finds itself in a weakened economic position generally and in an especially poor position to face the new tariffs that incoming President Trump has promised. Though the talk of a Chinese economic implosion has taken the place of the praise and envy of years gone by, it is doubtful that there will be such a collapse. China has a large economy that surely can withstand even the significant number of mistakes outlined here. However, the Chinese triumphs that Western media once spoke of seem very far away indeed. Even adequate growth seems unlikely. If Beijing claims that the economy achieved 2024 its 5 percent real growth target, the announcement will deserve a skeptical reading. Such growth will take a long time, if ever, to return.

Milton Ezrati is a contributing editor at The National Interest, an affiliate of the Center for the Study of Human Capital at the University at Buffalo (SUNY), and chief economist for Vested, the New York-based communications firm. His latest books are Thirty Tomorrows: The Next Three Decades of Globalization, Demographics, and How We Will Live and Bite-Sized Investing.

Image: Amnat30 / Shutterstock.com. 

Dans les pays occidentaux comme dans les nations émergentes, la quête du bonheur est omniprésente en entreprise, sur les réseaux sociaux ou dans les librairies. Elle prend la forme d'une offre souvent marchande, qui va du yoga globalisé aux diverses formes de psychologie positive promues par les (...) / Développement, Économie, Société, Inégalités - 2023/05

“Chaos,” wrote Albert Camus, constitutes “a form of servitude.” That is why true freedom must be a search for order. Yet, because order itself can be unjust and extreme, there is always the impetus to topple it. Camus writes in his greatest book, The Rebel, published in 1951, that ever since the mythical Prometheus rose up against Zeus in the deserts of Scythia, revolt has been a distinguishing characteristic of man. And since it is not enough to topple a regime unless one has planned a new and better order to replace it, Camus devotes an entire book to the morality of revolt.

“When the throne of God is overturned, the rebel realizes that it is now his own responsibility to create the justice, order, and unity … and in this way to justify the fall of God.” Camus’ reference to God is secular since when an authoritarian regime maintains a choke hold over its own people, it is usurping the role of God. A people, therefore, can be enslaved twice: first by the regime and second by the anarchy that succeeds its toppling. That is why the celebration of revolt in and of itself, without an idea of what follows, can be narcissistic.

Syria’s rebel leaders, according to their early statements and instincts, appear to comprehend this conundrum. When Syria’s new ruler, Ahmed al-Sharaa, talks about building institutions, getting bus service and electricity restored, and keeping the existing civil authorities of the old regime intact, it is as if he has read Camus. But this seemingly mundane realization about restoring the basic functions of the state has been a long time coming in Syria’s modern history. And it is important to understand why.

Servitude in Syria, whether because of tyranny or anarchy, did not begin with the Assad family regime in 1970. In that respect, the recent spate of news commentary has shown strikingly little curiosity about what preceded Hafez al-Assad and precipitated his rise to supreme power in Syria.

Ottoman imperial rule was followed after World War I by French imperial rule. When Syria finally became independent in 1946, it harbored all the illogical borders, the ethnic and sectarian complexities, and the contradictions of the greater Middle East. It cannot be emphasized enough that in the first quarter-century after independence, Syria experienced twenty-one changes of government, almost all of them extralegal, and ten military coups. There were also experiments with democracy during this period, which always broke down on account of ethnic, sectarian, and regional splits. Post-independence Syria’s first serious ruler was Adib Al-Shishakli in the early 1950s. Dubbed the Syrian Ataturk, he, nevertheless, referred to Syria as “the current official name for that country that lies within the artificial frontiers drawn up by imperialism.” He took power in a coup and was overthrown in a coup.

The elder Assad’s coup in 1970 took the most unstable country in the Middle East and turned it into a stable police state, which he ruled until his death in 2000. But with all of his organization and ruthlessness, he couldn’t easily quell a rebellion of radical Sunni Muslim Arabs from the Aleppo-Homs-Damascus corridor against his own Shia-trending, Alawite power structure originating in Syria’s rugged northwest. At the artillery school in Aleppo in 1979, Sunni Muslim terrorists killed and wounded close to a hundred Alawite cadets. As time went on, Syria seemed close to a bloody Sunni Islamic revolution, a counterpart to the Shia revolution in Iran at the time. This was the background to the elder Assad’s atrocity in Sunni Muslim Hama in 1982 when as many as 20,000 were slaughtered: an event that is almost always portrayed in the Western media out of context, as if Syria were totally at peace at the time. That doesn’t excuse the elder Assad, but it does rob the Western reader of the logic and reasoning behind his actions.

Hafez was haunted by chaos. He always knew how close Syria was to falling apart. Even so, as a journalist who traveled back and forth between Iraq and Syria in the 1980s, I can attest that Assad’s Syria was less oppressive than Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. In Iraq, you needed a minder to travel around the country and could not punch out your telex copy yourself but had to hand it to a government operator for review. In Syria, I traveled all over the country alone and could go into a post office to punch out my news copy with no one overseeing me. You could talk to people in Syria; there was not the feeling of a concrete block on people’s chests as there was in Iraq.

But there was a catch. Because of Syria’s inherent artificiality, Assad needed an ideology to hold it together. And the ideology was anti-Zionism. Baathism wasn’t enough. The elder Assad’s Syria, local officials constantly told me, was the “throbbing heart” of Arabism, unlike Egypt, which was never really trusted regarding its anti-Israel credentials. Whatever is proposed regarding peace, “we remain steadfast” in opposition to Israel, a public affairs officer told me in Damascus in 1983. Indeed, Syria was the most radical of the frontline states. Thus, in 1974, when Assad grudgingly signed a troop disengagement accord with Israel over the Golan Heights, thanks to the tireless diplomacy of Henry Kissinger, it ended the cycle of Arab-Israeli wars that had begun in 1948. The Egyptian-Israeli accords that followed, however lionized as they were by the media, were less geopolitically significant than the de facto removal of radical, Baathist Syria from the fight.

And the elder Assad paid for it. The Sunni jihadist revolt that began in 1979, though a partial reaction to the Shia revolt in Iran, was also driven by the Alawite Assad’s compromise with the Americans and Israelis, as well as his support for the Maronite Christians in the ongoing Lebanese civil war. The 20,000 dead in Hama was the price of Syria’s utter fragility.

Hafez was a self-made man, full of innate reserve, born in a house of undressed stone in the Alawite mountains to a father who had eleven children by two marriages. He rose through the ranks of the Air Force and took power when he was forty. His coup was virtually bloodless and called a “corrective movement.” Because of his Machiavellian genius, he maintained power until his death in 2000. It was the very longevity of his rule that proved a tragedy since it allowed for his increasingly spoiled and corrupt family to gradually amass a fortune stashed abroad, even as the internal stability he ultimately wrought by defeating the Sunni extremists did not convert his people from subjects to citizens. That is to say, over thirty years in power, he could have built a civil society. But he was so obsessed with anarchy that he demanded a suffocating order. Just as the Soviet Union quietly rotted away during the rule of Leonid Brezhnev from the 1960s to the 1980s, Syria followed the same path under the elder Assad.

Over time it was assumed that Assad’s eldest son, Basil, a career military officer and tough daredevil, would succeed him. When Basil died in a road accident in 1994—he was driving at high speed in a fog without a seatbelt—the mantle was placed on Bashar, a timid ophthalmologist in London. “Think of Basil as Sonny Corleone and Bashar as Fredo,” an American intelligence official once told me. Bashar’s over-compensating cruelty and inability to control the goons and warlords around him helped lead to Syria’s descent into a living hell in the years following the initial promise of the Arab Spring in 2011. It would turn out that the most “steadfast” state opposed to the existence of Israel was never really a state to begin with.

The current, ongoing destruction of Syria’s entire military apparatus, everything from its navy to its chemical weapons plants, by the Israelis is born of decades of mutual hatred between the two states. The elder Assad may have signed a disengagement accord with Israel, but Syria remained a potential strategic threat against Israel until the collapse of the country in the Arab Spring. As for any new Syria that might now arise, Israel will want it weak and permanently defanged. Israel welcomed the Arab Spring in Syria in 2011 precisely because it led to chaos: so that Syria was no longer a menace to the Jewish state.

In the early years following the Arab Spring, there were literally hundreds of militias in Syria with little identifiable sense of national purpose. Camus would not have been impressed. But now we have the possibility of a national leader who appears sensible about governance instead of ideology. And he is home-grown, not the product of an invasion by a foreign power. The fact that he is Islamist might not matter much since, in this part of the world, religiosity is entrenched in a way that it hasn’t been in the West since the days when Europe was known as Christendom.

The question presents itself: can Syria forge a path out of chaos without the need for an extreme ideology to hold it together? To call for democracy is premature. There is no precedent for a successful democracy in the Arab world. What the country’s new rulers must create now is a new and less oppressive order. That would morally justify their revolt and be the lesson of Camus’ The Rebel.

Robert D. Kaplan’s most recent book is Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis. He holds the Robert Strausz-Hupé Chair in Geopolitics at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Image: Shutterstock.

Grâce à la plume savante et alerte d'Abir Mukherjee, le Bengale de l'entre-deux-guerres reprend vie, à travers des intrigues qui mêlent habilement crimes sordides et petits complots, sur fond de grande politique. Depuis 2016 et L'Attaque du Calcutta-Darjeeling, sa série, débutant en 1919, reprend (...) / Littérature, Royaume-Uni, Inde, Ecosse - 2023/05

It is with a heavy heart that we announce the passing of a great American patriot and true champion of freedom-loving peoples (especially anticommunists) everywhere, Dr. Lee Willard Edwards (December 1, 1932-December 12, 2024). The cause of his untimely death was pancreatic cancer.

As I type these words on the evening of December 19, I have just returned home from having attended Edwards’s Funeral Mass—which took place at St. Rita Catholic Church in Alexandria, Virginia—and the reception thereafter (which took place at the Hyatt Regency Crystal City at Reagan Airport in Arlington, Virginia). It is now both my solemn duty and my tremendous honor to pay tribute to Edwards via this article, though no words will be adequate to convey what an amazing human being and friend of freedom Lee truly was.

Dr. Lee Edwards’s Bio

Edwards, ninety-two, of Arlington, Virginia, beloved husband, father, and grandfather, passed away peacefully at home on December 12, 2024.

Born in Chicago to Leila and Willard (a Chicago Tribune reporter) and raised in Silver Spring, Maryland. Lee graduated from Bullis School and Duke University.

After U.S. Army service in West Germany, Lee was moved by the 1956 Hungarian Revolution while living in Paris and vowed to spend his life fighting for freedom and against communism. He helped found Young Americans for Freedom in 1960, served as director of public information for Barry Goldwater’s 1964 presidential campaign, and started or helped sustain key anti-communist organizations. In 1986, Lee earned a doctorate from the Catholic University of America, where he was also a longtime adjunct professor. A preeminent historian of the American conservative movement and the former distinguished fellow in conservative thought at the Heritage Foundation, he was the author, editor, or co-author of over twenty-five books.

Edwards is predeceased by his wife Anna and survived by his daughters Elizabeth Edwards Spalding (Matthew) of Arlington and Catherine Marie O’Connor (Mike) of Spotsylvania, VA, and grandchildren Joseph, Catherine, Daniel (Chrstine), Thomas, Genevieve, Stephen (Marjorie), Zachary, Magdalene, Chrstopher, Michael, and Timothy. An eternal optimist devoted to freedom, family, and faith, his spirit lives on in his children, grandchildren, many friends, and all those he mentored.

Lee and Anne conceived of an organization to memorialize all the victims of communism around the world and to educate Americans about the atrocities of communism. In 1994, Lee co-founded the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation. Friends and family wishing to honor his life and legacy are invited to donate to the Lee and Anne Edwards Freedom Fund at VOC.

My Personal Interactions with Dr. Edwards

I didn’t quite get to know Edwards well enough to be able to accurately call him a true close personal friend per se, but I met him enough times at official events to affirm that he and I definitely had a strong, mutually respectful professional acquaintanceship.

My first time meeting Lee was at the Victims of Communism (VOC) Museum on October 25, 2022, at an event titled “Remembering the Hungarian Freedom Fighters of 1956.” It was definitely an honor and pleasure to make Lee’s acquaintance then and there, but it didn’t fully dawn on me at that moment in time just what a true giant of the anticommunist cause I was meeting.

Full disclosure here: I am a proud monthly donor to VOC. So accordingly, I became a regular attendee of VOC events such as the China Forum, and thus I not only got to interact further with Edwards but also got to know his wonderful daughter Elizabeth and grandson Joe (and reconnected with his son-in-law, Matthew Spalding, who is vice president of Washington Operations for Hillsdale College, after a 27-year hiatus. (The last time I’d seen Matt was way back in 1996, when I was a precocious, wild-eyed twenty-year-old intern at the Heritage Foundation’s Asian Studies Center and he was the founding director of Heritage’s B. Kenneth Simon Center for Principles and Politics.)

It was yet another Heritage Foundation employee, Dr. Jim Carafano (LTC, U.S. Army, ret.), the think tank’s current vice president for foreign and defense policy studies, who recruited me for my current career path as a journalist, starting with 19FortyFive back in May 2022 and leading to my current position with The National Interest!

I like to think of my all-too-brief acquaintanceship with Lee as an embodiment of the phrase “standing on the shoulders of giants.”

Requiescat in pace, Dr. Lee Edwards, and thanks and kudos to you for all of your amazing accomplishments and contributions to the cause of peace & freedom in your lifetime. It was truly an honor to have known you, and you will be sorely missed.

About the Author: Christian D. Orr

Christian D. Orr is a former U.S. Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He has also been published in The Daily Torch, The Journal of Intelligence and Cyber Security, and Simple Flying. Last but not least, he is a Companion of the Order of the Naval Order of the United States (NOUS). If you’d like to pick his brain further, you can ofttimes find him at the Old Virginia Tobacco Lounge (OVTC) lounge in Manassas, Virginia, partaking of fine stogies and good quality human camaraderie.

Image courtesy of the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation.

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his defense minister went up to the highest peak on Mount Hermon on December 17. This area of the mountain overlooks Lebanon, southern Syria, and Israel. It is just over 2,800 meters high. The peak of the mountain used to be occupied by a Syrian army post, which looked down over Israeli posts several miles away. It’s an important strategic site, and Israel knows this. For this reason, the Israel Defense Forces sent forces up to the peak as the Syrian regime evaporated on December 8. Laid out below them in Syria is a country at a crossroads. What comes next will profoundly affect the region, U.S. policy, Israel, and many other countries.

The fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime was a symbolic moment. Syria was once one of Israel’s most fearsome foes. Under Bashar al-Assad’s father, Hafez, the Syrian army was well-equipped with modern Soviet-supplied tanks and warplanes. It attacked Israel in 1973, crossing part of the Golan Heights that can be seen from Mount Hermon. It almost succeeded in handing Israel a major setback. Forty years later, in 2013, Assad found his regime besieged by rebels. However, he survived and was able to return to control part of Syria with the aid of Russia and Iran. It didn’t end up as planned, though. He was pushed out of power in a blitzkrieg-like offensive by a Syrian opposition group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on December 8.

I was in the Golan Heights that day, looking into Syria from the Israeli side of the line. There is a lot at stake in the country today. Syria is at a crossroads, and so is the region. The lesson of the Syrian Civil War is that what happens in Syria does not only matter to Syria or just its neighbors. For instance, the civil war helped provide fuel for ISIS and its invasion of Iraq in June 2014. That led to the genocide of Yazidis in Iraq in August 2014 and the United States and allied intervention against ISIS. Eventually, the anti-ISIS coalition grew to over seventy countries. To defeat ISIS, the United States helped the Iraqi army and Kurdish Peshmerga in Iraq. In Syria, the United States partnered with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a group in eastern Syria that is primarily rooted in the Kurdish region of Syria.

Today, the Kurdish minority in Syria faces new threats from Turkey, whose proxies have attacked their cities in the north. This is an odd situation because the SDF is partnered with the United States, and Turkey is a NATO ally. One would think that the United States could patch things up and forge a deal between the SDF and Turkey. However, Ankara is resolute to use the Syrian proxies it has recruited, called the Syrian National Army, to fight the SDF. Ankara claims the SDF is linked to the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it views as terrorists.

This situation presents a dilemma in Syria policy for the United States and Turkey. The U.S. role in eastern Syria was highly successful. With only a handful of troops, ISIS was largely defeated by 2019. However, this military success never translated into political engagement with the SDF and Syria. This is because U.S. diplomats generally viewed the partnership with the SDF as temporary, tactical, and transactional. They did not see a way forward for this group in terms of playing a role in the future government of Syria. That has meant a missed opportunity to leverage the U.S. role.

This doesn’t mean things cannot be salvaged. In southern Syria, the United States has a garrison at Al-Tanf. This is a base seemingly in the middle of nowhere, located in Syria near the Jordanian and Iraqi borders. The United States helped train a Syrian rebel group for more than half a decade. The group, now called the Syrian Free Army (not to be confused with the Free Syrian Army), helped topple Assad by marching toward Palmyra on December 7. It’s possible that this group might help provide security in parts of the Syrian desert between Homs, Damascus, and Albukamal on the Iraqi border. However, the new Syrian government of Ahmed Sharaa, whose HTS group is a U.S.-designated terrorist group, has demanded that armed groups in Syria disband and form a new army.

Where does all this leave us? The United States has a key role in eastern Syria, but it is at risk if Turkey chooses to invade and fight the SDF. There are thousands of ISIS detainees being held in eastern Syria. Any fighting in the east could jeopardize the anti-ISIS mission. ISIS still has many cells in the Syrian desert and has by no means disappeared.

Then there is southern Syria. The U.S.-backed group in Tanf is an important and possible avenue to discuss security arrangements with the new rulers in Damascus. Moreover, the Israelis, who now have an outpost on the Hermon peak, have advanced some forces into a buffer zone next to the Golan Heights into villages that the Syrian regime once controlled.

On December 11, the head of U.S. Central Command, General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, arrived in Israel. His visit reaffirmed close relations between Central Command and the Israel Defense Forces. Israel became part of the Central Command area of operations at the end of the first Trump administration, a significant move that came about in the wake of the Abraham Accords and Israel’s closer ties with some Arab nations. What that means is that the U.S. command that plays a key role in places like Iraq and Syria now consults closely with Israel.

For its part, Israel used the days after Assad’s fall to carry out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria against former Syrian military assets, such as warplanes and munitions depots. This eviscerated many potential threats. It is a lesson learned from the fall of the Gadafi regime. If a regime with a lot of guns and tanks falls, those weapons will end up flooding the region and destabilizing countries. With the Middle East already suffering a year of war in Gaza and Lebanon, and with Iranian-backed groups destabilizing Yemen and Iraq, it’s good Assad’s old military assets have been vaporized. The big question is if the new Syrian government can bring some stability to Syria.

This is now the crossroads. Can Damascus sort things out in eastern Syria, and can Washington make sure it doesn’t miss an opportunity to leverage a decade of work in Syria with the SDF and other groups? Other countries are making the pilgrimage to Damascus to meet the new rulers. Turkey, Qatar, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, and the EU seem ready to work with the new regime. The United States should be ready to utilize its partners in Syria and work with its friends in the region to make the most of this new reality. 

Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Image: Mohammad Bash / Shutterstock.com. 

Les livres de Mariana Enríquez paraissent en France dans le désordre. Ses premières nouvelles publiées en 2009 en espagnol viennent d'être traduites alors que deux de ses œuvres nettement plus récentes l'avaient déjà été. Cela ne serait pas pour déplaire à cette auteure argentine qui aime dilater le temps (...) / Littérature, Argentine - 2023/05

Jusqu'alors totalement inconnu des têtes pensantes de la diplomatie, le concept d'Indo-Pacifique a fait une entrée en fanfare dans le monde des relations internationales au milieu des années 2000. Il outille désormais toutes les chancelleries. Certaines sont alignées sur la doctrine des États-Unis ; (...) / Chine, Pacifique, Asie, France, États-Unis (affaires extérieures), Stratégie, Géopolitique - 2023/05

U.S.-Chinese tensions may rise, but Washington’s isolationism will help Beijing.

A secure peace will depend on economic revitalization.

Team Trump is scrambling to control the fallout from Elon Musk almost singlehandedly terminating a stopgap spending bill that would have ensured the federal government is funded through March 14. The problem is twofold. One is that the government may soon shutter, leaving House Speaker Mike Johnson with essentially no exit from the debacle. The other is that Musk is starting to eclipse President-elect Donald Trump.

Instead of Trump heading into his second term as Mr. Big, it increasingly looks like Musk is calling the shots. “This bill should not pass,” Musk declared. It didn’t. The result is political mayhem. Sen. Rand Paul is suggesting that Musk should replace Johnson as House speaker. So is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Writing in Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall observed, “Musk is erratic, volatile, impulsive, mercurial. He introduces a huge source of unpredictability and chaos into the presidency that for once Trump doesn’t control. See it clearly: Musk did this. Trump thrives on chaos, but his chaos. Not someone else’s chaos.”

Vice President-elect J.D. Vance has essentially been AWOL over the past several weeks. It appears that Musk has cemented the bromance between himself and Trump. He’s everywhere. He goes to the Notre Dame with Trump. He goes to the Army-Navy game with Trump. He goes to dinner with Trump at Mar-a-Lago. The only question is where he does not go.

Now Trump is moving to quash the notion that he’s in some kind of co-presidency with Musk, a notion that Gerald Ford once proposed to Ronald Reagan in 1980, who promptly rejected the notion. Instead, the Trump campaign released a statement to Business Insider claiming that Trump remains in command: “As soon as President Trump released his official stance on the CR, Republicans on Capitol Hill echoed his point of view,” Leavitt told it. “President Trump is the leader of the Republican Party. Full stop.”

However, the more the Trump campaign feels compelled to deny the claim, the more plausible it will become. For their part, Democrats are playing up the idea that Musk is the true president-elect. Rep. Rosa DeLauro issued a fact sheet showing what Elon’s move to kill disaster supplemental aid will cost each state. Others are referring to “President-elect Musk.” “He’s president and Trump is now vice president,” stated Rep. Jim McGovern.

Musk himself says that he is simply an upstanding patriot who seeks to bring important matters to the incoming administration’s attention.

For Trump, who has vowed to upend the federal government, torpedoing the bill offered an opportunity to flex his political muscles even before he officially becomes president. President Joe Biden is nowhere in sight. Trump dominates.

But in dominating the debate, he risks taking responsibility for a government shutdown, one largely engineered by his buddy Musk. At some point, there may be a collision between Trump and Musk. After all, if the shutdown isn’t resolved by January 6, Congress won’t be able to certify his election as president.

Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of The National Interest and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. He has written on both foreign and domestic issues for numerous publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, Reuters, Washington Monthly, and The Weekly Standard. He has also written for German publications such as Cicero, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, and Der Tagesspiegel. In 2008, his book They Knew They Were Right: the Rise of the Neocons was published by Doubleday. It was named one of the one hundred notable books of the year by The New York Times. He is the author of America Last: The Right’s Century-Long Romance with Foreign Dictators.

Image: Hadrian / Shutterstock.com

There is a short window for President Trump and Congress to reassert U.S. competitiveness on artificial intelligence (AI) and undercut China’s strategy before it cements its economic and geopolitical influence for a generation to come. Beijing and Washington are already in an AI race with the highest stakes for our economic and national security. Thankfully, innovation is in America’s strong suit. Open-source AI is how the United States can compete with China in both cost and capability. President Trump and his national security team, led by Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), can embrace the competitive advantages of open innovation so that America will unquestionably win the AI contest with Beijing.

China is on pace to spend more than $1.4 trillion by 2030 in its strategy to become the world leader in AI and other emergent technologies. Additionally, it is releasing AI models that are already competitive with the best American models. In November, the Chinese company Alibaba released its latest AI model, “Qwen,” which beat the best U.S. models in several performance benchmarks. According to CNBC, Alibaba’s models have been downloaded 40 million times since their initial release last year. 

Open sourcing is an explicit part of China’s Global AI Governance Initiative. If China is allowed to set global AI standards, the CCP’s long history of censorship will be exported around the world. In one concerning example, Chinese generative AI chatbots censor topics by refusing to respond to questions about Tiananmen Square or falsely claiming that Taiwan is part of China.

Recent administrations have tried and failed to keep advanced chips needed to develop powerful AI out of the hands of Chinese companies. Still, a committed adversary like China will always seek advantage where possible. Chinese companies have reportedly used U.S. cloud providers to get around bans on accessing chips and are hiring AI teams in the United States, in part to access these chips within our borders and evade controls.

There are four core elements to a successful open-source AI strategy that President Trump and Congress can implement.

First, the Trump administration should encourage federal agencies and the public sector to adopt freely available open-source models in their AI tools and products, or at least not prefer proprietary or closed models over open-source ones.

Second, America must be prepared to push back on other countries that are seeking to punish American innovation through restrictions that would target U.S. models while protecting their domestic ones.

Third, Congress must step up by pre-empting any state laws with federal policies or legislation so that the United States doesn’t end up with a patchwork of incompatible state laws that limit American innovation. This would stop future harmful, anti-innovation bills, like California’s SB1047, which was fortunately vetoed this Fall before it could be enacted.

Fourth and finally, leaders in Washington should avoid placing export controls on generative AI, which would prevent U.S. companies from releasing open-source models.

U.S. restrictions on open-source models will only disadvantage the United States and its allies while doing nothing to slow China’s momentum. Access to the latest AI developments and models is critical for our national security. The U.S. military and Intelligence Community are already using U.S. open-source AI to gain tactical and strategic decision advantages. Large language models can identify patterns within source intelligence reporting, accelerate the speed and accuracy of battlefield decisions, and expose terrorist financing or identify cyber vulnerabilities before attacks happen. Slowing down our advances in this technology is not an option.

Instead, the United States should focus on holding off China’s AI advancements by restricting its access to the chips and computing power needed to train AI models. An AI researcher noted that China’s latest models show that it has the raw data and talent to train large models, but it will need more specialized technology and chips to solidify its lead at the top.

To win the tech race, America must lead in both open and closed-source AI models. Each approach has its unique advantages, but to beat China, we need to foster both. Some argue that closed models are more secure, but that’s not the case. Every year, China steals more than $500 billion in trade and tech secrets from the United States, and well-resourced states like China can easily gain access to closed-source models. 

“Closed” doesn’t mean secure, and proprietary AI models could easily end up in Chinese hands through IP theft, insider attacks, or other means. Open-source AI has several benefits for the United States and our allies because it makes us more competitive in the global economy through open-source models, making AI technology more accessible—especially for smaller developers and researchers who are challenging the status quo.

Open source also fosters economic growth because it drives competition, spurs homegrown innovation, and increases consumer choice. Open source can also make products safer because more eyes can mean fewer faults: a wide community is providing ongoing feedback and scrutiny, which isn’t possible when a company makes their AI proprietary through selling access.

As history has demonstrated, open-source technology typically becomes the global standard over the closed alternative. AI will be no different. The AI standard that emerges will become embedded in the financial, e-commerce, infrastructure, manufacturing, and communications systems of the future. The domains and industries AI affects are too consequential for the United States to ever fall behind an adversary, including China. The incoming Trump administration is positioned to ensure the United States leads on this front for decades to come.

Alexander B. Gray served as deputy assistant to the president and chief of staff of the White House National Security Council (2019-21) and special assistant to the president for the defense industrial base (2017-18).

Image: Billion Photos / Shutterstock.com. 

Over the last 20 years, America has failed in both war and peace. The world is on fire and is waiting for President Donald Trump to fulfill his promise to bring about a ceasefire in the war and, ultimately, broker a peace agreement. The war in Ukraine presents itself as both a challenge to Trump and, for the first time since the end of the Korean War, an opportunity for America to win the war by winning the peace.

To envision a successful future, we must look to learn from the past. The reconstruction of Japan after World War II, the reconstruction of South Korea after the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, and the reconstruction of Germany provide lessons and perspectives to draw upon. All three nations experienced economic and security renewals, which not only had national benefits but also enhanced the United States in terms of both economics and security.

This same opportunity exists today for the people of Ukraine and for the United States. The coming Ukraine economic miracle and recovery will reshape the Eurasian continent. Ukraine will become a lighthouse for innovation, resilience, and future-oriented development. Nothing brings two nations together more than strong commercial ties. Economic entanglement between the United States and Ukraine will bring prosperity to both.

Critical mineral security and development will be a cornerstone of this success. Fast-tracking the extraction and processing of Ukraine’s vast mineral resources is key. Securing the multi-trillion dollars of critical minerals in Ukraine is a vital national interest of the United States.

Civil nuclear power will provide stable, clean energy for the reindustrialization of Ukraine. Robust capacity is needed to drive the coming economic renaissance. Energy security is foundational to sovereignty and success.

Likewise, land restoration is essential. Unexploded ordnance and other ground contamination must be mitigated. Ukraine has always been the breadbasket of the world. Along with Europe, much of the African continent relies on Ukraine’s agricultural resilience and success. Clean-up will put people to work quickly and kick-start agricultural development.

Redesigning the defense industrial base with an eye to implementing new battlefield technologies and proven legacy systems is crucial to Ukraine’s security. A holistic integration of command, control, communications, computer systems, manufacturing, and innovation will create a “live” and responsive system to face all adversaries and new technologies.

World-class data systems will be needed to shoulder the incoming needs. This includes robust fiber rings, server capacity, and AI infrastructure. This should be built at overcapacity and leverage new technologies to provide all stakeholders with scalable information systems.

There is an incredible opportunity for the United States and Ukraine to develop, test, and deploy revolutionary AI infrastructure. Small modular reactors, providing nuclear-powered data centers, offer a new physics-based approach versus legacy server design. That, combined with the aforementioned data network capacity, will yield game-changing results.

A Silicon Valley-type citadel of innovation will be another key driver. This means harnessing the deep intellectual capacity of the Ukrainian people as world leaders in technological innovation.

Restructuring government for economic success, security success, and a secure and resilient democracy will be key to achieving all of these long-term goals.

Lastly, the story of Ukraine must be told, including why Ukraine matters and why a strong partnership with the United States matters. The values of the Ukrainian people mirror our own, and their resilience can provide hope and vision, not just for their people but for our nation as well.

David Ayer is a writer, director, and producer whose films include Fury, End of Watch, and Beekeeper. A former Navy Submariner, David has an abiding interest in global messaging and fresh ways to tell stories.

RDML (Ret.) Michael Hewitt, U.S. Navy, is co-founder and CEO of IP3 Corporation and CEO of Allied Nuclear Partners. IP3 creates thriving, peaceful environments in critical world markets through the development of sustainable energy and security infrastructure via public/private initiatives and industry-led partnerships.

Image: Seneline / Shutterstock.com

Trump, tariffs, and the coming transformation of global commerce.

La nouvelle présidente du Mexique ne doit pas seulement son élection à la popularité historique de son prédécesseur. Son succès se comprend aussi par le long travail de proximité réalisé par la gauche à Mexico auprès, ou au sein, des associations revendicatives. / Mexique, Élections - (...) / Mexique, Élections - 2024/12

Le 1er octobre 2024, M. Andrés Manuel López Obrador a quitté le pouvoir. L'initiateur de la « quatrième transformation » est devenu l'une des figures les plus populaires de l'histoire de son pays. Certaines de ses politiques ont toutefois déçu, et font partie de l'héritage transmis à la nouvelle (...) / Mexique, Élections, Politique, Personnalités - 2024/12