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Diplomacy & Crisis News

The Obstacles to Diplomacy in Ukraine

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 01/04/2024 - 06:00
Russia’s extreme demands—and Ukraine’s desire to survive—make negotiations unlikely.

The Trouble With “the Global South”

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 01/04/2024 - 06:00
What the West gets wrong about the rest.

Rape Culture Prevalent in Armenia

Foreign Policy Blogs - Fri, 29/03/2024 - 21:24

Many in the United States and Europe hold a favorable view of Armenia, even though the country possesses a rape culture that delegitimizes victims of sexual assault and domestic violence.  A 2016 report led by the United Nations for Population Fund Armenia (UNFPA) reported that 36 percent of the respondents in Armenia believe that women should tolerate violence for the sake of family unity. Within those 36 percent, 45 percent were men and 28 percent women.

Guidelines published by the British government warned their citizens that if they are raped in Armenia, “Reporting crimes to the police in Armenia can be a complex and time consuming process. Local officers may not have specific training in supporting victims of sexual assault. You may find the process of reporting the assault at times difficult, and quite different from what you would expect of UK police proceedings.”

They continued, “Rape and sexual assault are both criminal offences in Armenia, but conviction rates remain low, and judicial proceedings are likely to take a long time. It is very likely that victims will be asked to testify in front of third parties, and there is no legislation to punish those violating the confidentiality of a victim.”

Amnesty International proclaimed, “Armenia is the only country among its Council of Europe neighbors without legislation criminalizing domestic violence.”  According to a recent report put out by Human Rights Watch, Armenia has still not ratified the Council of Europe Convention on Preventing and Combatting Violence against Women and Domestic Violence due to “misinformation campaigns in previous years claiming that the convention threatens traditional and family values.”

Meanwhile, presently, “there are only two domestic violence shelters.  Both are in Yerevan and are run by a non-governmental organization.  The new criminal code identifies domestic violence as an aggravating circumstance in a number of crimes, but domestic violence is not a stand alone criminal offense.”

Human Rights Watch noted, “Domestic violence cases remain largely underreported. A 2021 survey in Armenia showed that almost 36 percent of women interviewed who were ever in a partnership experienced at least one form of physical, sexual, or psychological violence by a current or former intimate partners; only 5 percent of those who experienced physical or sexual violence by a partner sought help from police and only 4.8 percent sought help from a health provider.”  

Ani Jilosian of the Women’s Support Center in Yerevan claimed in a podcast titled “against shame culture” that many victims of domestic violence and other forms of sexual violence in Armenia are “forced to undergo” virginity tests.  She continued: “We know that virginity testing is not only unethical but it is also unscientific.  In Armenia as well as in other countries where it is not banned, it is used in cases of rape and child sexual abuse.   The practice is painful, humiliating.   It can also be traumatic for victims.  These are typically practiced in order to ascertain if violence took place.”

This practice takes place in Armenia, even though a 2012 study by the Forensic Science International Journal found that 90% of child rape victims do not suffer from physical damage after experiencing sexual abuse.  

Jilosian noted that there are other reasons why virginity tests are performed in Armenia, which are more sinister: “It might be required by the family of the husband upon marriage.  It happens less now, but it still happens from time to time.  This is to determine if a woman is a virgin upon marriage.”  She also claimed that in Armenia some girls undergo “hymen restoration surgery” in order to fool such tests.

The Armenian Parliament has passed its first reading on a bill that would ban virginity testing as a form of violence in Armenia, but Jilosian noted that it took a long time for the Armenian government to act on this “for it was not on the agenda to ban this practice for it was not a concern that has been raised, even though civil society members have been raising it for some time.   This bill underlines and better defines the types of violence that victims face.”  

Nevertheless, the ban on virginity tests has still not been engrained into law and the bill faced stiff opposition in the Armenian Parliament in its first reading due to the opposition of some to including members of the LGBT community in a law protecting them from domestic violence.   

 

By Rachel Avraham

Overhaul UNRWA—Just Not Right Now

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 29/03/2024 - 05:00
The aid agency is flawed, but it is also saving Palestinian lives.

The New Autocratic Alliances

Foreign Affairs - Fri, 29/03/2024 - 05:00
They don’t look like America’s—but they’re still dangerous.

America, Iran, and the Patron’s Dilemma

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 28/03/2024 - 05:00
The backers of Israel and Hamas didn’t start the war in Gaza. But they can end it.

A World Full of Missiles

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 28/03/2024 - 05:00
Mass proliferation's meaning for global security.

Don’t Betray the Women of Afghanistan

Foreign Affairs - Thu, 28/03/2024 - 05:00
Normalizing relations with the Taliban normalizes female suffering.

China’s Economic Collision Course

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 27/03/2024 - 05:00
As growth slows, Beijing’s moves are drawing a global backlash.

The Shame Weapon

Foreign Affairs - Wed, 27/03/2024 - 05:00
Condemning a country’s human rights violations rarely works—but that doesn’t make it pointless

What Ukraine Needs From NATO

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 26/03/2024 - 05:00
Advanced weapons—and clarity on what membership will require.

Why America Is Still Failing in Iraq

Foreign Affairs - Tue, 26/03/2024 - 05:00
U.S. military force and sanctions can’t fix the country's broken politics.

The Need for an European Army in Today’s World

Foreign Policy Blogs - Mon, 25/03/2024 - 16:51

As NATO approaches its 75th anniversary, the transatlantic community stands at an inflection point. The Pax Americana is over, democracy is in retreat, and the rules-based order hangs by a thread. Meanwhile, the U.S. is more riven with acrimony and disagreement than at any point since the Civil War. Further American security assistance to Ukraine remains uncertain as Russia continues to make incremental gains across the 600-mile front. On the other hand, Europe has no more aid to give. If one can draw a positive from the past two years, it’s the reinvigoration of NATO. However, many are rightfully wondering whether unity will be enough. Without American aid, Ukraine would have fallen, and Europe is more reliant on Washington for security than ever before. It’s time to reassess the transatlantic security architecture. NATO must remain the cornerstone, but the alliance needs a robust European pillar. America can no longer single-handedly confront every global crisis. Perhaps controversially, the circumstances mandate a pan-European army under the auspices of the EU.

The fact that Britain, France, and Germany cannot support Ukraine without American aid should be a wake-up call in every Western capital. The Russian invasion revealed shocking decay within even Europe’s most capable militaries. Their tanks did not work, ammunition was scarce, and their defense industrial bases proved incapable of keeping up. This readiness level is deplorable, but so is Washington’s response. President Biden is repeating a strategic mistake that has plagued every administration since the Cold War. This error is the failure to realize the advantages of a militarily self-sufficient EU. The U.S. needs a capable ally that shares its values to safeguard mutual interests and check autocratic aggression. Moreover, the EU needs a credible tool to back its words if it desires a prominent role in the evolving multipolar order.

Unfortunately, the EU cannot support a war effort in its own backyard against an adversary whose economy is ten times smaller. No European country can perform autonomous operations across the full spectrum of conflict without American intervention. Moreover, Europe lacks the capabilities expected of modern militaries, notably aerial refueling, command and control, and transport. For example, the French required American aerial transport to conduct its counterterrorist operations in the Sahel. Considering France is one of Europe’s predominant military powers, this instance is particularly illustrative but surely not the only example.

Given these stark realities, Western policymakers should push for a European military anchored in the Atlantic framework. The EU should aim for an army numbering at least 100,000 troops from various member states. Participation would be optional for each state, and Brussels would need to hammer out the minutiae, like command structure and ensuring civilian control. Such a prospect seems fantastical from an American perspective, but Europe has made similar efforts in the past.

Unfortunately, the U.S. has stymied previous European attempts to enhance self-sufficiency. As the continent’s security guarantor, Washington historically wielded a de facto veto over European security policy. Consequently, American skepticism has fostered a view within Europe that establishing an independent military force would strain relations with their main security provider. Indeed, Germany, Poland, and the Baltics have publicly rebuffed France’s push for a European army based on this principle.

Since the USSR’s dissolution, each president has voiced a common concern: No EU military can duplicate NATO’s capabilities. Madeleine Albright expressed this reservation after the Saint-Malo declaration, where historically dubious Britain finally endorsed an autonomous European military force. The second Bush administration even countered an EU proposal for a rapid reaction force with a NATO equivalent. During the Trump years, the administration threatened retribution against any plans that came at the expense of American defense contractors or duplicated NATO. Meanwhile, Biden resorted to the same narrative about preserving the alliance’s integrity and avoiding replication. Instead of discouraging European ambitions, the U.S. should empower its allies across the Atlantic.

The U.S. should enthusiastically endorse the concept of a European army or, at a minimum, a form of strategic autonomy. Doing so would legitimize the idea, especially among countries hesitant for fear of upsetting the U.S. Moreover,  American backing would enable Washington to shape the process and ensure its alignment with NATO. If done correctly, a pan-European army would complement the alliance, not replicate it. NATO-EU collaboration could identify weak points where Brussels could fill the gap. The EU could then make these additional assets available within NATO.

The EU would need to establish a mechanism for joint procurement. Each country currently develops its militaries individually, so there is no coordination to ensure efficient allocation of capabilities. This fragmentation results in too many weapons systems, redundancies, and wasteful spending. By pooling resources, the EU could prioritize capabilities that are impractical for individual nations to pursue, such as aircraft carriers and aerial refueling. The ultimate objective should include a Europe that can independently conduct operations across the full spectrum of conflict. NATO would still serve its core function of collective security but with a strengthened European pillar.

Like any course of action, this endeavor comes with pitfalls. As a supranational organization, many may question, “Who would die for the EU?”. However, decades of integration have fostered a generation loyal to both their nation-state and the EU. Politicians and citizens alike see themselves as embodying and serving the interests of the European project. And with a population of 450 million, a force of 100,000 soldiers willing to defend Europe is not an unreasonable goal. Additionally, this force would complement national militaries, not supplant them. Certain countries like France take immense pride in their armed forces and would understandably never relinquish their military tradition.

Another concern is the suggestion that European countries should simply increase their defense spending. However, this is not a matter of spending, which Europe has substantially increased over the last decade. In aggregate, EU countries allocate more funds to their militaries than China and Russia. Despite this investment, they still lack critical capabilities.

Such an endeavor would span decades, but the key is to set the process in motion. Had Washington recognized the benefits of this plan decades ago, the situation in Ukraine would be much different today. Furthermore, a strategically autonomous Europe would allow the U.S. to divert more resources and, most crucially, its attention to the Asia-Pacific. The U.S., Europe, and a select number of partner countries represent the last bastions against a system where might makes right. Unfortunately, current politicians are governed by the same outmoded post-Cold War thinking. Once American policymakers realize they cannot do everything at once, the free world will be in a much better position.

The Tyranny of Expectations

Foreign Affairs - Mon, 25/03/2024 - 05:00
Winning the battle but losing the war, from Ukraine to Israel.

Which countries are the safest in the world?

Foreign Policy Blogs - Fri, 22/03/2024 - 16:51

Every day, Israel is plagued by more terror attacks.  Today, a terrorist opened fire on an Israeli minibus in the Binyamin region.   Last night, an explosive device was thrown on a passenger bus in Gush Etzion.   And a Palestinian who was planning a suicide bombing attack was recently arrested near Jericho.   These are merely a few of the terror incidents that Israelis have dealt with recently.   

According to the Global Terrorism Index, Israel is among the countries most affected by terrorism.  This makes one ponder, which countries are the safest ones in the world?  

According to the World Terrorism Index, Azerbaijan ranked 18th among 141 countries as being among the safest countries in the world.  Singapore, Norway, Iceland and Finland are the world’s safest countries, with Singapore being first place and the other three being tied for second place.   The top ten included Hong Kong, Switzerland, Canada, Indonesia, Denmark, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Austria, China and the Netherlands.

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) is a comprehensive study analyzing the impact of terrorism covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. It takes into account the number of terrorist incidents, deaths from terrorism, counter-terrorism, the effectiveness of terrorism investigations and many other indicators.  The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), using data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources.

Azerbaijan is also included in the list of 20 most secure countries in the world for crime rates.  The ranking is by the Numbea resource, which has the world’s largest statistical database of countries and cities.  During the survey, the residents were asked if they could walk alone in the city at night, were satisfied with the work of the police and whether they had been attacked or robbed over the past 12 months.

Indeed, Oghuz, Azerbaijan may be one of the few places in the world where it is safe to leave synagogues unlocked at night, without fearing burglars and anti-Semitic vandals.  There is also an Armenian church in the center of Baku.  Despite Azerbaijan’s conflict with Armenia, it remains in good condition.  As Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev proclaimed, “Today, Azerbaijan is an island of security.”

The countries experiencing the most significant levels of terrorist activities and threats, ranked by their respective threat levels, are as follows: Burkina Faso leads with 8.571 scores, followed by Israel with 8.143, Mali with 7.998, Pakistan with 7.916, Syria with 7.890, and Afghanistan with 7.825.

Subsequent rankings include Iran in 26th place with 4.464 scores, Turkey in 29th with 4.168, the USA in 30th with 4.141, Russia in 35th with 3.016, France in 38th with 2.647, Norway in 53rd with 1.747, Armenia in 76th with 0.423, the United Arab Emirates in 79th with 0.233, and Lithuania in 87th with 0.059 incidents.

 

 

USA and NATO Fail to Take Advantage of The Tremendous Ukrainian Military Efficiency in Dollars Spent

Foreign Policy Blogs - Mon, 18/03/2024 - 16:33

Seldom discussed since the Russian aggression against Ukraine are the vast disparities between the economic wealth of the west versus the much smaller, communist/socialist dictatorship economies of Russia, Iran and North Korea (RINK) Here are two numbers to make my point perfectly clear: GDP of combined NATO countries is $47 trillion. Combined GDP of RINK is $3 trillion.  The USA alone is $28 trillion at year end 2023, compared to Russia’s $2.5 trillion, or more than 10 times larger. If wars are won purely based on economic strength, the Russian aggression should have been repelled and ended with Russia crawling back to their side of the Ukraine border within a few months had the NATO countries acted with resolve and the military might their economies can support.

When considering whether to spend another $60 billion on Ukraine (most of which is recycled through American miliary equipment manufacturers), Americans might be surprised to learn what they are getting for their $150 per person contribution. They would be supporting a fierce fighting force in relatively poor country with a per capita income level of less than $5000, compared to the USA which enjoys per capita income of $70,000.  The Ukrainians are fighting to the death for many historical reasons, one of which is to escape the stunted economic growth the country has experienced while under the control of the Kremlin. Ironically, Ukraine is poor because unlike its former USSR neighbor countries, it failed to achieve escape velocity from the iron grip of the corrupt Russian government between 1990 and 2014, when the Maiden protests finally succeeded in expelling the Kremlin’s puppet dictator Yanukovych.

Thinking about what the Ukrainians have achieved with such a relatively poor country is extraordinary. A nation with 44 million people (or roughly 35 million after the outflow of refugees) is holding off a nation of 150 million people with vast oil and gas reserves to pay for their military. The disparity in GDP between Russia and Ukraine is even more stark, barely $200 billion for Ukraine versus $2.5 trillion for Russia. This is why financial assistance is essential for Ukraine. NATO countries excluding the USA have combined GDP of $18 trillion, with Germany being the largest at $4 trillion. Total NATO GDP is $47 trillion or almost 20x that of Russia. The west and NATO citizens need to seriously adjust their perception of this ”war” and the massive imbalance in economic might.  Russia’s propaganda machine has everyone believing they have some form of economic parity and have successfully done a workaround our sanctions. When the fact is that Russia and their corrupt economy is holding by threads and with a hundred billion or more of military spending by the west, which as we have said is a very small price to pay, Russia would retreat. Putin knows this, fears this and explains his irresponsible nuclear threats.

Since WW2, Russia has been framed in the American mindset as the other superpower in terms of nuclear weapons. But what most Americans probably do not know is that Russia is far from a peer in economic terms. As stated earlier, USA GDP is $28 trillion at year end 2023 and Russia is under $3 trillion, yet Russia is able to fund upheaval, repression and bloodshed in Ukraine, the Middle East with Hamas and Iran, Georgia, Venezuela and Cuba to name just the most obvious trouble spots.  Russia will spend some $80 billion on military this year, or 3.2% percent of GDP, and up to $600 billion between 2022-2025.  But aside from the inner circle of oligarchs, the average Russian lives on well under $15,000 a year and in constant fear of speaking out about the police state in which they reside.

The US will spend about the same percentage of GDP, or about $840 billion in 2023 alone. Thus, in pure economic terms the additional $60 billion for Ukraine amounts to just an additional 7% of defense spending and just 2/10s of one percent of GDP. Given that Russia is disrupting American interests worldwide, most notably in Ukraine, the supplemental spending bill is a very small price to pay to stop Russia. The Ukrainians have done a brilliant job depleting the Russian military. Now Russian soldiers like American soldiers in Vietnam are not committed to what they are fighting for.  Whereas the Ukrainians are fighting for their independence, thus united in their conviction that they are on the right side of history.  With the proper amount of support, Ukraine together with NATOs financial superiority can push Russia back to Russia.

Consider Russia’s two favorite collaborators in global upheaval. Iran has a GDP of under $400 billion and North Korea has unreliable data which suggests GDP of $100 billion. Conditions for the average Iranian and North Korean are dismal, with per capita income levels of $4,400 and $2,000. Their leaders care far more about global aggression than the lives of their citizens. Adding the GDPs of Russia, Iran and North Korea total some $3 trillion, hardly a match for the USA or NATO combined, which account for almost half of global GDP.

Question for the military historians? How many wars were fought where one side was allowed to bomb its neighbor into oblivion and send tens of thousands of troops across their border into their small neighbor, but the nation being attacked is told by its “allies” that it cannot cross the border and attack inside the aggressors’ territory? This is the miscalculation of NATO, while the brave Ukrainian people endure nightly missile attacks.

The widely held view that Putin would not stop at the border of Ukraine if he were victorious was echoed by President Biden in his State of the Union address last week.  But he failed to credit the incredible work of the Ukrainian people to date in repelling the Russian onslaught given their much smaller population, economy and military resources. Given the threat posed by Putin, the money spent to date and the money proposed by the White House amounts to about $250 per capita spend by each American.

For this small expenditure as a percentage of the defense budgets and GDP of the USA and NATO GDP, the Ukrainian accomplishments to date are truly remarkable:

  • Stopping the surprise attack on their capital city Kyiv and pushing the Russian military back to the region where fighting has been going on since and 2014.
  • Russian military casualties in the tens of thousands, causing Putin to constantly draft more men, many to their graves, resulting in mounting suppressed opposition to the invasion.
  • Shooting down the majority of massive nightly missile and drone attacks, showing NATO the limits of Russian warfare technology and requiring Putin to go begging for more ammunition from other pariah states like Iran and North Korea.
  • Destroying 16 Russian ships in the Black Sea Fleet, without having a navy of their own.

Ukrainians Aspire to Independence and Higher Quality of Life Than Russia Can Offer

Since the fall of the USSR in 1991, the countries that became independent democracies and members of the EU have seen their nation’s wealth and per capita income rise significantly more than that of Russia or the countries stuck under Russian de facto control (e.g. Belarus to this day and Ukraine until 2014). In 2014 Ukraine was finally able to get rid of their Russian imposed President after the Maiden protests, but Russia almost immediately invaded Crimea and the eastern part of Ukraine and has forced democratic Ukraine to get bogged down in a war for independence ever since.

Former USSR states that have joined the west have experienced increases in GDP and per capita income of 8 to 10 times, or compound annual growth rates (CAGR) in the mid-teens since 1990. Ukraine and its neighbor Poland were equivalent at about $65 billion of GDP when the USSR collapsed, but a capitalist democratic Poland which joined the EU and escaped the yoke of Russian oversight has seen its GDP increase from $65 billion in 1990 to $688 billion as of 2022 the most recent year of full data. Poland’s per capita income has grown from $1,731 in 1990 to $18,321 as of 2022.  The same extraordinary growth has been generated by Lithuania, Latvia, Czech, Estonia and other East European countries. For example, Lithuania grew GDP from $7 billion in 1990 to $70 billion in 2022 and per capita income grew from $2,168 to $24,827 in 2022.

Compare these success stories which were accomplished by the hard work and ingenuity of their people in a free capitalist system, to the Russian experience. Russia has experienced GDP growth from $516 billion to $2.5 trillion, mostly the result of their oil wealth, a fourfold increase, or about 7% annually, but much less than the 13% annual growth of the nations that joined the EU. Per capita income has increased from $3,493 to $15,345 in that time frame. Thus, Russia grew at a much slower pace than their former subjugated states and on a per capita basis Russia fell behind their former colonies. Bear in mind, Russia has the benefit of tremendous natural resources wealth which has been siphoned off by oligarchs due to corruption, which significantly inflates the Russian numbers. Unfortunately, the average Russian citizen is far below the average per capita number as a result.

Ukraine has the potential to achieve the same economic growth as Poland and other neighboring states once the war and Russian aggression ends. The Ukrainians were outraged in 2013 when the Russian puppet leader Viktor Yanukovych vetoed the opportunity to sign an association agreement with the EU and this ultimately led to the Maiden Riots in 2014 which forced Yanukovych out of the country. Unfortunately, Ukraine has suffered terribly from Russian interference since 1990. The current GDP before the invasion in 2022 was just under $200 billion, or per capita income of $4,534.

 Once Ukraine’s population is allowed to blossom as a democratic capitalist society more closely aligned with the west rather than living under the thumb of the corrupt Russian regime, the economy should experience growth in the teens as well and eventually make good on debts to the west. A free capitalist Ukraine would experience a return of millions of skilled computer scientists and other highly educated citizens who could contribute to Ukraine and all of Europe via EU membership.

Bruce Harting serves on the Board of a Bank and is a Managing Director at a US investment banking firm

The F-35 Just Made History: Full-Scale Production Begins

The National Interest - Fri, 15/03/2024 - 00:30

Summary: The F-35 Lightning II, a stealth fighter jet, received Pentagon approval for full-scale production on March 12, marking a significant milestone for the program. Under Secretary of Defense William LaPlante praised the decision, which signals the program's stability and readiness to fulfill nearly 3,500 orders across its three versions. Despite this achievement, the program faces challenges with delivering the aircraft. Technical issues and manpower shortages have halted deliveries, despite Lockheed Martin producing at normal rates. The awaited TR-3 software update, crucial for new munitions and enhanced capabilities, further complicates deliveries. The Department of Defense may accept aircraft with older software to ensure timely fulfillment, underscoring the jet's critical role in national security.

F-35 Lightning II Hits Production Milestone: What Lies Ahead for the Stealth Fighter?

The F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jet achieved another major milestone after the Pentagon approved full-scale production on March 12. 

“This is a major achievement for the F-35 program,” Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante said in a press release.

Lockheed Martin, the manufacturer, is now cleared hot to meet the vast demand for the aircraft from the U.S. military and from dozens of foreign partners. In total, there are almost 3,500 orders for the three iterations of the F-35, with several additional countries waiting to enter the program and submit their own orders. 

“This decision — backed by my colleagues in the department — highlights to the services, F-35 cooperative program partners, and Foreign Military Sales customers that the F-35 is stable and agile, and that all statutory and regulatory requirements have been appropriately addressed,” LaPlante added.

The F-35 Lightning II is the most advanced fighter jet in the skies today. A multi-role, fifth-generation stealth aircraft, the F-35 Lightning II comes in three versions (A, B, C) and can operate from the ground, from aircraft carriers, and in expeditionary conditions. 

Full-scale production approval is an important milestone, but it is of limited practical value. There are some serious issues with the production of the F-35 that largely negate the effect of the Pentagon’s announcement. 

What’s Up with F-35 Deliveries? 

Deliveries of F-35s have largely been halted. In its February fast facts on the F-35 program, Lockheed Martin indicated “990+” deliveries. More than a month later, in the March fast facts, the manufacturing company displays the exact same number of deliveries. To make matters more complicated, Lockheed Martin announced a few months ago that it reached the 1,000-aircraft milestone in production. 

Lockheed Martin has been producing aircraft at normal rates (approximately 158 aircraft a year) but isn’t delivering them, because technical issues and manpower shortages are delaying necessary software updates for the manufactured aircraft. 

Specifically, Lockheed Martin has been trying to roll out the TR-3 update, which includes upgrades to the F-35’s onboard digital infrastructure, data storage and processing capabilities, and user interface. In addition, the TR-3 will allow the fifth-generation stealth fighter to carry new air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions, as well as pack better sensors and cyber warfare countermeasures. 

If that wasn’t enough to complicate the situation, the F-35 Program is waiting for yet another major upgrade (Block 4) that cannot go through until the TR-3 software is ready. Block 4 is an important milestone in the F-35 program, and it will ensure that the stealth fighter is ready to fight and prevail in a contested near-peer operational environment. 

Although Lockheed Martin expects the issues with the TR-3 software to be resolved this year – within the summer according to some estimates – the Department of Defense is considering accepting deliveries of the aircraft with the older TR-2 software. 

Smooth and timely deliveries of the F-35 are a national security issue, as the fifth-generation fighter jet can make the difference in a potential conflict with a near-peer adversary. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. Email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock. 

Nimitz-Class Aircraft Carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is Unstoppable

The National Interest - Fri, 15/03/2024 - 00:14

Key Point: The United States Navy's USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) is actually the second oldest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in service in the world today and is currently scheduled to be replaced around 2029 when the new Gerald R. Ford-class supercarrier USS Enterprise (CVN-80) enters service. That is already later than the originally planned 2028 retirement for the CVN-69.

However, last year the U.S. Navy extended the service life of the second oldest Nimitz-class vessel as the Ford-class vessels are running late. The USS Nimitz (CVN-68) is currently on track to be retired in 2026 – and the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower could even remain in service into the early 2030s.

Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel now a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., told Stars & Stripes on Thursday that keeping the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower beyond the original timeline for its retirement gives the Navy flexibility.

"It would help avoid that gap between when you plan on retiring the Eisenhower and when the Kennedy and other Ford-class carriers are ready to deploy," he explained, adding, "There is tension if you retire carriers on time and there are delays with replacements. You could end up with 10 carriers instead of 11 or 12. To be fair to the Navy, the president is always going to call on them to go anywhere in the world."

That point was made clear last October when President Joe Biden ordered the Eisenhower to the Middle East to support the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) following the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel. Since last fall, CVN-69 has been in the Red Sea – joined by the guided-missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea and guided-missile destroyers USS Gravely and USS Mason to stop Houthi missile attacks on shipping. The carrier strike group remains in the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the Middle East region.

Aircraft Carrier Late Arrivals

Extending the older carriers may be necessary as the U.S. Navy's future carriers may be late in arriving. The USS Gerald R. Ford had been originally scheduled for delivery in 2015, only to be pushed back to May 2017. Her first full overseas deployment was only last year – and she is next expected to head to the Puget Sound Naval Shipyard for a $182.2 million electrical upgrade.

Moreover, two other Nimitz-class carriers, the USS George Washington (CVN-73) and USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74) are currently "out-of-service" at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia – with the former completing her four-year Refueling and Complex Overhaul (RCOH) that began in August 2017. The latter vessel is next up for the scheduled RCOH, which will be completed sometime by the end of the decade.

Be Like Aircraft Carrier Ike

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower – "Ike" to its crew – is the second of the ten Nimitz-class carriers in service with the Navy today. Named to honor the 34th president of the U.S. and General of the Army, the ship has remained in service for more than four decades.

Congress authorized CVN-69 in 1970, which it later commissioned seven years later. Following more than a year of fleet training, Ike was deployed to the Mediterranean. The mighty shift underwent a major overhaul to be fitted with newer technology in the mid-1980s and was later released back into the waters by 1987.

Over its lengthy service history, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed to a litany of combat operations. The ship’s first deployment was dubbed Operation Eagle Claw during the 1980 Iran hostage crisis. One of the carrier's most notable deployments took place during Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. CVN-69 made history when she became the second nuclear-powered carrier ever to transit the Suez Canal.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org. 

Alaska-Class: The U.S. Navy's Last Battlecruisers Were Powerhouses

The National Interest - Thu, 14/03/2024 - 23:09

Summary: Before Alaska's statehood, the U.S. Navy embarked on an ambitious project to construct a new class of battlecruisers, the Alaska-class, in honor of the territory. Initially planned as a six-ship fleet, only two, the USS Alaska and USS Guam, were completed. These vessels emerged in response to the evolving naval threats of the 1930s, aiming to counter the German "pocket battleships" and rumored Japanese large cruisers. The Alaska-class, notably larger than existing cruisers, marked a departure from the limitations set by the Washington Naval Treaty, showcasing a significant leap in naval armament and design. Built by the New York Shipbuilding Corporation, these ships were equipped with formidable weaponry, including nine 12-inch guns and a plethora of secondary armaments, making them far more powerful than their predecessors.

Changing Tides: How the Alaska-Class Battlecruisers Shaped Naval Warfare

Before Alaska officially became a state, the U.S. Navy designed a new fleet of battlecruisers that it named in the territory's honor. 

Six ships were initially planned for the class, but only two were built. The lead ship of the class, the USS Alaska, was laid down in 1941, followed by the USS Guam. These ships were designated as battlecruisers when they were introduced into service, since they were much larger than the Navy’s existing cruisers at the time.

The origins of the Alaska class can be traced back to the early 1930s. The Navy prioritized the construction of vessels capable of going up against Nazi Germany’s Deutschland-class cruisers, known as “pocket battleships.” Imperial Japan at the time was also rumored to be developing a new large cruiser class. Due to the guidelines outlined in the interwar periods under the Washington Naval Treaty, prior ship classes designed by the U.S., Britain, Japan, France, and Italy had been limited to 10,000 tons of displacement. But larger ships were returning to the seas.

Both Alaska and Guam were built by the New York Shipbuilding Corporation. Construction of the third ship in the class, Hawaii, was canceled in 1947 when she was roughly 84% complete. The remaining three ships that were planned – the Philippines, Puerto Rico, and Samoa, were eventually canceled. 

The Alaska and Guam never fulfilled their planned roles. After Imperial Japan attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941, the U.S. Navy shifted its focus to the development of aircraft carriers.

Introducing USS Alaska

The Alaska measured roughly 808 feet long, with a beam length of 91 feet. The hefty battlecruiser displaced 29,779 long tons, and more than 34,000 tons at full load. 

Since the Alaska was much larger than her predecessors, she was able to sport a more formidable armament. The battlecruiser was armed with a main battery of nine 12-inch L/50 Mark 8 guns in three triple gun turrets. A secondary battery consisting of twelve 5-inch L/38 dual-purpose guns in six twin turrets was also incorporated. As detailed by National World War II Museum curator James Linn, “Standard American heavy cruiser design, like the 673 feet-long, 14,500-ton Baltimore-class, were armed with (9) 8” guns, (12) 5” guns, and (24) 20mm guns. By comparison, the Alaska’s were 808 feet-long and weighed 29,771 tons. They were armed with (9) 12” guns, (12) 5” guns, (56) 40mm guns, and (34) 20mm guns.”

Alaska-Class: Service History

Following her commissioning, the USS Alaska sailed toward Hampton Roads before beginning her shakedown cruise in the Chesapeake Bay. She then returned to the Philadelphia Navy Yard to be fitted with the new Mk 57 fire control directors for her 5-inch guns. Alaska would sail for Hawaii in 1945 where the ship would be assigned to Task Group 12.2 based out of Pearl Harbor. Alaska, alongside her sister ship Guam, was tasked with providing anti-aircraft defense for the Navy’s carriers.

The Alaska first saw combat in the Second World War in March 1945 when she participated in airstrikes over Okinawa. Japan launched a massive Kamikaze attack during this battle. 

Subsequent events have been outlined by Naval Encyclopedia: “When USS Franklin was badly damaged by bomb hits and a kamikaze, USS Alaska and USS Guam, now in the same unit, as well as two other cruisers and destroyers were detached, forming 58.2.9 in order to escort the crippled Franklin to Ulithi. They were attacked and USS Alaska claimed another D4Y. It happened that gunfire from one of her 5-inch guns accidentally caused flash burns on several men nearby which became her only casualties of war. She became fighter director due to her better air search radar, vectoring fighters in interception along the way, and downed a Kawasaki Ki-45 Toryu.”

In the later days of the war, the Alaska was assigned to Cruiser Task Force 95. Overall, the battlecruiser was awarded three battle stars for her performance during the war. By the end of the 1950s, the Navy considered converting Alaska and Guam into guided missile cruisers. However, the costly nature of such a conversion was nixed by the service. The Alaska was officially stricken from the Naval Vessel Registrar in 1960 and was broken up for scrap.

About the Author: Maya Carlin

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin.

Email the author or contact us: Editor@nationalinterest.org

Putin's Ukraine Nuclear War Threats Must Be Taken Seriously

The National Interest - Thu, 14/03/2024 - 22:54

Summary: The escalating nuclear threat from Russia, accentuated by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, puts a spotlight on President Vladimir Putin's unpredictable demeanor and alarming rhetoric on nuclear weaponry. With election season underway in Russia, Putin's assured re-election is being promoted through a media blitz, despite the nation's corrupt political landscape rendering it almost unnecessary. Putin's boast about Russia's superior nuclear triad, capable of launching nuclear weapons from ground, air, and sea, underscores a formidable deterrence strategy. These assertions are not taken lightly, as the Kremlin has issued credible nuclear threats against Ukraine and the West since the conflict's inception on February 24, 2022.

Global Alert: The Realities of Russia's Nuclear Strategy Under Putin's Regime

The large-scale invasion of Ukraine showed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unhinged and unpredictable. So when he starts talking about nuclear weapons, Putin’s words might not be completely empty. 

Putin's Nuclear Threats

It is election season in Russia, and Putin is going on a media spree to bolster his image – though in the country’s corrupt political system, it’s rather unnecessary. His re-election for another six years is certain. 

During one of his media appearances, Putin spoke about the Russian nuclear triad. 

“Our triad, the nuclear triad, it is more modern than any other triad. Only we and the Americans actually have such triads. And we have advanced much more here,” the Russian leader said in an interview on Russian state television. 

When referring to the “triad,” Putin was talking about the capability of some nuclear powers to launch nuclear weapons from the ground, air, and sea. The ability to launch nukes from these three domains creates the best possible deterrence, as it ensures a second strike in the event of a surprise attack. 

For example, if Russia attacked the United States with intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) carrying nuclear warheads, the U.S. military would be able to respond with a nuclear strike from its submarines, which patrol around the world nonstop with nukes at the ready. During the Cold War, when tensions with the Soviet Union were sky-high, the U.S. Air Force had strategic bombers armed with nuclear weapons flying 24/7, ready to strike back in the event of a surprise Soviet attack. 

If it works properly, a nuclear triad is unbeatable and lets the other side know that a surprise first strike would not go unpunished. 

The Kremlin has repeatedly threatened Ukraine and the West with nuclear warfare since Russia invaded on February 24, 2022. These are credible threats. The U.S. intelligence community even prepared assessments for a possible Russian tactical nuclear strike somewhere in Ukraine. 

But how many nuclear weapons does Russia have?

The Russian Nuclear Weapons Arsenal 

The Russian military possesses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. While estimates vary, the Kremlin probably has around 5,600 nuclear warheads of all sizes and destructive power. 

The Strategic Rocket Forces, a separate branch of the Russian military, is responsible for maintaining and operating Moscow’s ground-launched nuclear weapons. Western estimates suggest that Russia has over 300 ICBMs that can be matched with about 1,200 nuclear warheads.

When it comes to the maritime component of the Russian nuclear triad, the Russian Navy has 11 ballistic missile submarines (Delta, Kilo, and Borei class subs) that can each carry about 16 ballistic missiles equipped with nuclear warheads.

Finally, the air leg of the Russian nuclear triad includes Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95MS Bear long-range strategic bombers that can carry air-launched cruise missiles equipped with nuclear warheads. The Russian Aerospace Forces are also working on a new bomber, the PAK DA, which is expected to have some sort of stealth capabilities. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. Email the author: Editor@nationalinterest.org.

Image Credit: Shutterstock. 

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